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Most overrated player in each league.

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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,135 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Let me put some numbers to my RISP theory (they are entirely made up, but do not seem ridiculous to me):

    A player has a career where he bats 10,000 times and gets 3,000 hits. Those ABs break down like this:

    7,000 ABs, no RISP, pitcher neither struggling nor throwing a tremendous game; he hits .300 for 2,100 hits

    500 ABs, no RISP, pitcher throwing no-hitter or otherwise the greatest game of his career; he hits .200 for 100 hits

    2,000 ABs, RISP, pitcher neither struggling nor throwing a tremendous game; he hits .300 for 600 hits

    500 ABs, RISP, pitcher is terrible with a reliever racing to warm up; he hits .400 for 200 hits

    Now out of this player's 10,000 ABs, 9,000 are "normal" and only 1,000 are against very good or very bad pitching, and his average increases as much against terrible pitching as it decreases against great pitching. The result for this career .300 hitter is a non-RISP average of .293, and a RISP average of .320 - a 27 point difference.

    Again, I'm just making these numbers up and they are simplified a little bit, but I would be surprised if this phenomenon was NOT happening to some degree for most players. And please don't interpret this as picking on Jeter - I think he's a probable HOFer and deservingly so - it is the stat itself that I think is overrated.
    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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    Is it too early to add Felix Hernandez to the most overrated list? Probably.

    He picked up a cheap win yesterday 7 earned runs in 6 innings. Just the type of performance that people bash Randy Johnson for on here.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭


    << <i>Is it too early to add Felix Hernandez to the most overrated list? Probably.

    He picked up a cheap win yesterday 7 earned runs in 6 innings. Just the type of performance that people bash Randy Johnson for on here. >>



    I'll be the first to chime in and say I've been severely disappointed with his performances this year. After the splash he made last year, I was expecting great things out of him.

    The upside? He's only 20, and still has plenty to learn. The difference between randy johnson and king felix is felix is only making 340k this year, while little unit is taking home checks for $15 million this year. HUGE difference.

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    The number one main reason why league batting averages are higher with RISP is that Sacrifice Flies are not counted as outs towards a batters average. That fly ball with a man on third is obviously credited as an out during that same at bat with nobody on.

    Does somebody's approach change with that man on third that may result in a different at bat if nobody were on? Who knows.

    But when you count all Sacrifice flies as OUTS for the league with RISP, then the league average is pretty close to identical when comparing batting with RISP and batting with nobody on.

    Other factors masy come into play as Dallas points out(though it is very small impact), and that may be negated(or outweighed) by fielders having more choices to get outs when there is men on base...a ball deep in the hole may be a hit with nobody on, but with a man on first it can be turned into a force out at second, thus making it a little harder to increase your average with RISP.


    Derek Jeter's lifetime batting splits are as follows...

    NOBODY ON .313
    MEN ON.......317
    RISP............301

    SLUGGING % NOBODY ON .478
    SLUGGING % MEN ON ......441


    Jeter does nothing special at all with men on, and when you consider the league usually bats BETTER with RISP, and Jeter is LOWER, then you know that there are a boat load of guys who do better with RISP. Jeter's lifetime slg% is VERY POOR with men on, compared to nobody on.

    So Jeter's situational hitting is actually below average.

    P.S. Another thing to consider is that with men on, often times people are asked to sac bunt(those bunts are not counted as outs in the average). Typically those are the worst hitters in the lineup, so if they were allowed to swing away their at bats would bring the league average with RISP down a bit too. So in reality, a player should be expected to bat LOWER with runners in scoring position(when sac flies are counted as outs towards the average), mainly because of the extra choices a fielder has at his disposal.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Skip

    With all due respect when Morgan made his comment that jeter was batting 340 with the bases loaded his average for the yr was 344.

    How can you say that he hits below average when it is a measley 4 pct points? how many sac flys can he possibly have?



    Dallas my whole point was in reply to you stating that when a player comes up with the bases loaded it was due mainly to poor pitching. I counter with perhaps it was good hitting that got those guys on base?


    Steve
    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    I agree regarding king felix, lotsa upside potential there. I do however disagree with the comment regarding what each makes.

    How about 23 years difference?

    unit is 43
    felix is 20


    what they make is of no consequence in the way they pitch.

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Skip


    I'd like to know what the league average is with bases loaded.

    we know that jeter was at 340

    what was the league average when that statement was made?

    surely not 340.


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭


    << <i>
    unit is 43
    felix is 20

    what they make is of no consequence in the way they pitch.

    Steve >>



    It absolutely does...if a pitcher is making 340k then their expectations are much lower than someone making $15 million, no?
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    It absolutely does...if a pitcher is making 340k then their expectations are much lower than someone making $15 million, no?

    Im not so sure about that .

    Felix was drafted very early in all of my fantasy drafts. Much higher than Randy.

    I personally was looking for a huge year from Felix
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    yankeeno7yankeeno7 Posts: 9,242 ✭✭✭
    Some people have a hard time not factoring in salaries...they can't just talk about playing ball.
    No matter how much they make, they are all playing the same game.
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    Writer11Writer11 Posts: 738


    << <i>

    << <i>Is it too early to add Felix Hernandez to the most overrated list? Probably.

    He picked up a cheap win yesterday 7 earned runs in 6 innings. Just the type of performance that people bash Randy Johnson for on here. >>



    I'll be the first to chime in and say I've been severely disappointed with his performances this year. After the splash he made last year, I was expecting great things out of him.

    The upside? He's only 20, and still has plenty to learn. The difference between randy johnson and king felix is felix is only making 340k this year, while little unit is taking home checks for $15 million this year. HUGE difference. >>



    I kind of agree with what you are saying. I do hope he turns it around. There's a lot of pressure on these kids once the "buzz" machine starts working.
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    << <i>Some people have a hard time not factoring in salaries...they can't just talk about playing ball.
    No matter how much they make, they are all playing the same game. >>



    Typical Yankees fan...

    A guy who makes 10M SHOULD do better than someone making 1M - isn't that common sense? It's not common sense to overpay aging players...
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭

    NO they are not.

    both are expected to pitch and do the best that they can.


    where they are within the salary structure means nothing. (in that regard) anyway

    it only means that one team is paying one guy more for basically the same result. (stinko)

    If The guy making the millions was dogging it then I would agree with you.

    These are human beings not machines.

    If it was machines we were talking about then I would wholeheartedly agree with you.


    to imply just cuz a guy is making millions he should pitch better then a guy making less is wrong IMO

    you can have higher expectations sure, but this is afterall a game with many factors beyond 1 persons control.

    Steve

    Good for you.
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    Earlier I wasn't talking about Felix and Randy, but in general...



    << <i>NO they are not.

    both are expected to pitch and do the best that they can.

    Steve >>



    And their salary has no correlation to their "ability" - their maximum potential based on them giving their best?!



    << <i>to imply just cuz a guy is making millions he should pitch better then a guy making less is wrong IMO >>



    Randy's making millions based on his past achievements; the Yankees were betting on him that he'd do the same or even better. Randy is doing horrible so the Yankees clearly OVERRATED him based on his salary.
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Yankees "overrated" Johnson? How much more ridiculous can you get? The Yanks signed Johnson with the idea that he would not fall flat on his face and be the same or nearly the same pitcher he was for another two years. If the Yankees DID NOT sign him ANOTHER team surely would have for comparable numbers. So please stop with the complete bull$hit. You want to know what a DUMB move is? Ask the Mets about Kashmir. Now there is a colossal blunder. THAT is a example of a team not being able to scout its own players and letting a seemingly on the rise star leave instead of him anchoring the rotation for 10 years. What the Yankees did with a two year gamble on Johnson is a pimple on the ass of the Mets type of blunder.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Brian

    My fault I was replying to :
    It absolutely does...if a pitcher is making 340k then their expectations are much lower than someone making $15 million, no?

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Ask the Mets about Kashmir. Now there is a colossal blunder. THAT is a example of a team not being able to scout its own players and letting a seemingly on the rise star leave instead of him anchoring the rotation for 10 years. What the Yankees did with a two year gamble on Johnson is a pimple on the ass of the Mets type of blunder


    Sadly I agree, somewhat that is. we do not know what will happen for the next 10yrs. but as of this moment..yep


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    And their salary has no correlation to their "ability" - their maximum potential based on them giving their best?!

    ok now I will address Brian

    no it does not. and I'll tell you why. felix is at the beginning of his career and thus makes the league min. his potential can be greater then a veteran who is at the end of his career and is basically being rewarded for what he has already accomplished. It is the economics of the game.

    in theory if both had the same amount of service time and one guy was a proven 20 game winner with a 2,50 era, while the other guy was a 12 game winner with a 3.50 era then yes i would agree with you.

    the key here is service time.

    Afterall we or at least some of us were talking about felix and randy.

    Steve

    Good for you.
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    ctsoxfanctsoxfan Posts: 6,246 ✭✭


    << <i>If the Yankees DID NOT sign him ANOTHER team surely would have for comparable numbers. So please stop with the complete bull$hit. >>



    Nope - not buying it. The Yanks were the only team in that "race", and they would have topped any other offer put out there anyway. Of course they didn't sign him to fall on his face, but when you sign a guy at the age of 41 to a multi-year deal (who has shown signs of physical decline before he came to NY) that defines dumb move. Randy is partly to blame also, remember him whining and sulking when the first deal to NY fell through? And, poor Randy had to continue to pitch in Arizona? Arizona didn't want him to go, but no way were they going to cough up the crazy money George threw at him.
    image
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    << <i>And their salary has no correlation to their "ability" - their maximum potential based on them giving their best?!

    ok now I will address Brian

    no it does not. and I'll tell you why. felix is at the beginning of his career and thus makes the league min. his potential can be greater then a veteran who is at the end of his career and is basically being rewarded for what he has already accomplished. It is the economics of the game. >>



    Well I agree in the case of young players getting the minimum for a few years.

    As far as, then a veteran who is at the end of his career and is basically being rewarded for what he has already accomplished, I just don't see that. Often old guys get LESS money because they are aging and not as effective.



    << <i>the key here is service time. >>



    If based mostly on service time, good ole' Julio Franco would be the richest man in the world (I'm not knocking Julio - I miss him on the Braves.)

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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Brian
    i agree, regarding franco. However we were talking about felix and randy. or at least i was. also not all aging vets fit into the situation that johnson does. I did not say all vets. some take a cut to stay.



    Steve
    Good for you.
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    << <i>Brian
    i agree, regarding franco. However we were talking about felix and randy. or at least i was. also not all aging vets fit into the situation that johnson does. I did not say all vets. some take a cut to stay.



    Steve >>



    I agree with that Steve.



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    Felix Hernandez is overrated, wow, did not know every rookie can start off like Verlander, give the ninja some time to get better, it is far too early to call him overrated!
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    murcerfanmurcerfan Posts: 2,329 ✭✭
    so...i'm to understand that only numbers count here..throw out intanibles.....and that the "best" shortstop in baseball this year has a fielding percentage of .968 and is batting .347 with a .403 OBS ??

    sounds kinda over-rated to me.
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    BoopottsBoopotts Posts: 6,784 ✭✭


    << <i>so...i'm to understand that only numbers count here..throw out intanibles.....and that the "best" shortstop in baseball this year has a fielding percentage of .968 and is batting .347 with a .403 OBS ??

    sounds kinda over-rated to me. >>




    Tejada is not over rated.
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    murcerfanmurcerfan Posts: 2,329 ✭✭
    and yet...

    ...a shortstop hitting .352 with a .976 fielding percentage and a .438 OBS is over-rated?

    i get it...it's that new math you kids are using.

    or... is it something intangebile that we should be looking at?
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭


    << <i>and yet...

    ...a shortstop hitting .352 with a .976 fielding percentage and a .438 OBS is over-rated?

    i get it...it's that new math you kids are using.

    or... is it something intangebile that we should be looking at? >>



    Don't worry, jeter will revert to the norm....he's just playing above his head at this point.

    His career stats are a much better indicator of his true abilities: .315 BA, .387 OBP.

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    bri2327bri2327 Posts: 3,178 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>and yet...

    ...a shortstop hitting .352 with a .976 fielding percentage and a .438 OBS is over-rated?

    i get it...it's that new math you kids are using.

    or... is it something intangebile that we should be looking at? >>



    Don't worry, jeter will revert to the norm....he's just playing above his head at this point.

    His career stats are a much better indicator of his true abilities: .315 BA, .387 OBP. >>




    And a career average of .315, obp of .387 are most definately the stats of an overrated player. Especially from a guy who only captains the team and has come up big in virtually every playoff appearance for 10 yrs. If that isnt overrated I dont know what is image
    "The other teams could make trouble for us if they win."
    -- Yogi Berra

    image
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    So we now get it, the Yankees TEAM is a TEAM of individuals, instead of a TEAM!!!
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    bri2327bri2327 Posts: 3,178 ✭✭


    << <i>So we now get it, the Yankees TEAM is a TEAM of individuals, instead of a TEAM!!! >>




    Unfortunately it seems that way. They certainly lack the chemistry they had during their run. I would venture to say that there are players on the team that Randy Johnson and Sheffield have never even met or spoken to.
    "The other teams could make trouble for us if they win."
    -- Yogi Berra

    image
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> Don't worry, jeter will revert to the norm....he's just playing above his head at this point.

    His career stats are a much better indicator of his true abilities: .315 BA, .387 OBP. >>



    If you would "revert" back to your mothers womb none of us would have to read the above clueless comment.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭

    And if you would 'revert' to back under your rock and keep your angry hate to yourself, we'd all be a lot better off.

    Troll.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    I just wish that arod would 'revert' back just a few short weeks.

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Jeter has 1,999 hits in 1,570 games. The fastest Yankees to 2,000 hits are Joe DiMaggio in 1,537 games and Lou Gehrig in 1,576. The other five -- Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Williams, Don Mattingly and Yogi Berra -- needed more time.

    yeah, he is just another average sap somewhere else image

    IDIOTS

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    ctsoxfanctsoxfan Posts: 6,246 ✭✭
    Wait a minute - did I just see Murcerfan?

    Is Gemmy10 coming out, too?
    image
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    say what you want ...... 1,999 hits in 1,570 games. Not too shabby for a over rated slouch anyway image

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    BoopottsBoopotts Posts: 6,784 ✭✭


    << <i>and yet...

    ...a shortstop hitting .352 with a .976 fielding percentage and a .438 OBS is over-rated?

    i get it...it's that new math you kids are using.

    or... is it something intangebile that we should be looking at? >>




    When someone says overrated, what exactly do you think they mean? Because you don't seem to get it. Player 'a' can be BETTER, in absolute terms, then player 'b', while at the same time player 'a' can be overrated while player 'b' isn't.


    Also, FWIW, Tejada's career OPS is .822 and his career fielding percentage is .970. Jeter is .815 and .976 respectively. Two very fine baseball players who, in many respects, are blessed with comparable talent. Obviously those numbers are more significant than YTD stats.
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    BoopottsBoopotts Posts: 6,784 ✭✭


    << <i>say what you want ...... 1,999 hits in 1,570 games. Not too shabby for a over rated slouch anyway image >>



    Just because I've always wondered this: Exactly who are the individuals who comprise the 'popular opinion' in your sig line? Because I've never heard anyone on these boards disparage your set.
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    softparadesoftparade Posts: 9,274 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Boo, I get it. You don't seem to notice the arguement that some around here make that Jeter would be almost a nobody playing in a small market. I completely understand the arguement about the media over rating him .....

    About the sig line ..... I have very good reason to have it as I took alot of flak early on in my 1978 Topps quest here and on other boards and not directly out in front for all to see. The sig line inspires me to keep going.

    ISO 1978 Topps Baseball in NM-MT High Grade Raw 3, 100, 103, 302, 347, 376, 416, 466, 481, 487, 509, 534, 540, 554, 579, 580, 622, 642, 673, 724__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ISO 1978 O-Pee-Chee in NM-MT High Grade Raw12, 21, 29, 38, 49, 65, 69, 73, 74, 81, 95, 100, 104, 110, 115, 122, 132, 133, 135, 140, 142, 151, 153, 155, 160, 161, 167, 168, 172, 179, 181, 196, 200, 204, 210, 224, 231, 240

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    BoopottsBoopotts Posts: 6,784 ✭✭


    << <i>Boo, I get it. You don't seem to notice the arguement that some around here make that Jeter would be almost a nobody playing in a small market. I completely understand the arguement about the media over rating him .....

    About the sig line ..... I have very good reason to have it as I took alot of flak early on in my 1978 Topps quest here and on other boards and not directly out in front for all to see. The sig line inspires me to keep going. >>




    LOL! Dan-- when I said 'you don't get it' I was quoting Murcerfan. And only an idiot would think Jeter would be a nobody on a small market team.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    Jeter may not be a 'nobody' playing in a small market, but he sure as hell wouldn't be lauded as this 'hero' simply because he wouldn't have landed in so many consecutive postseasons, thereby overinflating his relative worth.

    You make a great point with Tejada. Where are his accolades? Why isn't he recognized as a superior player to Jeter? Simple. The supposed 'importance' of Jeter's 'intangibles' during the postseason.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Ax, stick to the arod thread.

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭


    << <i>Ax, stick to the arod thread.

    Steve >>



    Why, because I am right here, and there, too?
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    No, you are wrong here and there you look foolish.

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    /yawn

    WP you are so predictably silly.

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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    I guess one could say:

    the truth hurts huh?

    Steve
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    What truth?

    That Jeter is overrated, and Arod's gotten a bum rap since he's been in NY? Truth hurts on your end, perhaps.
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    WinPitcherWinPitcher Posts: 27,726 ✭✭✭
    Talk about being predictable.


    yawn


    Steve
    Good for you.
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    AxtellAxtell Posts: 10,037 ✭✭
    The truth is usually predictable, but then, what the hell do you know about the truth?
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    dallasactuarydallasactuary Posts: 4,135 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The truth is usually predictable, but then, what the hell do you know about the truth? >>



    For those of you unfamiliar with what Axtell considers the truth (if it is unclear, he is referencing the World Trade Center and 9/11):

    "And I have seen engineers, the ones who know the towers inside and out, say that there is no possible way that structural damage such as the plane who hit it, could have caused the towers to fall. The fuel burns at approximately 1600 degrees, the steel used in the structure was tested to 4000 degrees. There is no way those towers fell due to the fires."

    "I am not going to go into it, the paper I linked does so in stunning detail, but the building was brought down with explosives in a controlled demolition. There is no way a burn brought down the building in less than 10 seconds (the time it took the tower to fall), and it surely wouldn't have done so instantly. A building on fire would have met resistance on the way down from the floors that didn't burn, so it wouldn't have fallen in a precise and consistent matter."

    "I've stated repeatedly that I have accused NO ONE of mass murder. I have not named any names who is to be implicated in the plots that brought down the towers. I will leave you with this - of the 19 terrorists accused of being on the planes, 9 still are alive and well overseas."

    This is for you @thisistheshow - Jim Rice was actually a pretty good player.
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