The negative Nellie's simply don't know or won't acknowledge that these boxes have been in the card market for years. I don't see an outcry by card collectors that they were robbed.
You don't talk to many card guys then. I'm buddies with several and they whine worse than any numismatist, LOL.
And yet they keep buying the card boxes....just like people will keep buying the VaultBox....as long as they don't get greedy and overproduce them😎
Even that didn't stop card buyers. Modern cards get printed like wallpaper. I've long believed in the "if you build it, they will come", and "bigger fool" theories...
It is amazing what has happened in some of the modern card sectors. As you say, they are all pretty common, yet prices have soared in recent years...well, except for baseball. Lol.
There's also a glut of different offerings, which you would think would have diluted the market but it really hasn't.
Except, ironically, for one of the ones you posted:
It is a limited edition of only 100, and yet it sits, unloved and unpurchased.
There is no guarantee the same thing won't happen here. There doesn't seem to be the same level of buzz about it in the card market as in the coin market, and most coin collectors don't seem to be too pleased with their outcomes.
Thus the survey and promise to make it better. The only question now is whether "fool me once..." will kick in, or whether there are enough people to line up and take a shot.
As I said before, I think the next one will sell out because people always seem to think that past performance is indicative of future results, so $1200 sales on eBay will attract people until that stops. Which could easily occur with the next series, given the average value of what's actually inside sealed boxes.
One track mind. I'm talking about card prices, not hobby boxes.
Okay, but in that case we should be talking about coin prices, not VaultBoxes.
@jmlanzaf said:
One track mind. I'm talking about card prices, not hobby boxes.
Hobby boxes? They're not a very good investment, I'm told.
If only one of my superiors could do the math for me.
Forget about the math. You don't need it when you have a smart person to tell you when what you're doing isn't a good idea.
Especially when NONE of you are actually doing it. Just arguing, ad infinitum, why no one should advise others to follow your example by shunning it.
We're not arguing. But we can't seem to have a friendly discussion about anything without some jackhole jumping in and repeating himself.
I showed a picture of a VB coin that I bought and you jumped in with accusations and the same tired argument.
Two of us were talking about sports cards and you jump in with the same tired arguments.
We can't say anything without you jumping in and repeating yourself. None of us are arguing with anyone but you and that's only because you keep jumping into every discussion. And none of us have even mentioned VB boxes with you, we just keep mentioning your behavior.
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen. I gambled and took a small loss, but I've lost more on a single hand of blackjack and still had fun. You assume that people buying are getting hosed, but part of the fun (and risk) is knowing that you have a small chance at getting something bigger. No regrets on my part. Heck, I could have purchased a $3500 pallidum coin from the mint only to have it be worth about 50% less today.
@jmlanzaf said:
One track mind. I'm talking about card prices, not hobby boxes.
Hobby boxes? They're not a very good investment, I'm told.
If only one of my superiors could do the math for me.
Forget about the math. You don't need it when you have a smart person to tell you when what you're doing isn't a good idea.
Especially when NONE of you are actually doing it. Just arguing, ad infinitum, why no one should advise others to follow your example by shunning it.
We're not arguing. But we can't seem to have a friendly discussion about anything without some jackhole jumping in and repeating himself.
I showed a picture of a VB coin that I bought and you jumped in with accusations and the same tired argument.
Two of us were talking about sports cards and you jump in with the same tired arguments.
We can't say anything without you jumping in and repeating yourself. None of us are arguing with anyone but you and that's only because you keep jumping into every discussion. And none of us have even mentioned VB boxes with you, we just keep mentioning your behavior.
Actually, many of your "friendly discussions" in this thread include snide references to me.
Just who is the "smart person" @MasonG is referring to?
Who are the "superiors" you seek to do math for you?
Who's telling @MasonG that hobby boxes are not good investments?
If it's the "jackhole" you are referring to above, maybe he considers the references to be an invitation to respond.
You publicly congratulated yourself on scoring a VB coin at a fraction of its cost. Maybe you should have kept that to yourself, because it afforded me an opportunity to point out how all of your arguments about how great VB would be for the hobby are refuted by people being able to buy the coins at steep discounts so soon after issuance. Taking the "fun" out of being able to profit from the losses of others.
But you're right -- you can have all the friendly discussions you want in private. If you bring them onto a public forum, you invite public responses, even if they are the same tired responses from the same tired people. There is an easy way to avoid it, but you are probably incapable of availing yourself of it.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen. I gambled and took a small loss, but I've lost more on a single hand of blackjack and still had fun. You assume that people buying are getting hosed, but part of the fun (and risk) is knowing that you have a small chance at getting something bigger. No regrets on my part. Heck, I could have purchased a $3500 pallidum coin from the mint only to have it be worth about 50% less today.
If you received about $450 in value, you did better than most. Based on how they ran the distribution, and the fact that it is unregulated and unsupervised, your chance of doing better might be even smaller than you realize. If you are fine with it, and had fun losing that $150, more power to you. I'm absolutely not trying to tell you what to do.
Doesn't mean you didn't get hosed, or that others didn't get hosed worse. But, if you are fine with it, I really am not judging, believe it or not. Others are putting words in my mouth.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
@jmlanzaf said:
We're not arguing. But we can't seem to have a friendly discussion about anything without some jackhole jumping in and repeating himself.
You mean by continuing to say (but not in so many words) "I don't understand why other people value things differently than I do and even though I don't, I'm still going to tell them that their opinions are wrong"?
@jmlanzaf said:
We're not arguing. But we can't seem to have a friendly discussion about anything without some jackhole jumping in and repeating himself.
You mean by continuing to say (but not in so many words) "I don't understand why other people value things differently than I do and even though I don't, I'm still going to tell them that their opinions are wrong"?
That sort of repeating?
Or, the kind of repeating where someone keeps accusing someone of telling other people that their opinions are wrong, when he's really just calling them a bunch of hypocrites. No one is telling anyone who knowingly chooses to throw away money that they have no right to do it, or are "wrong" for doing so.
Saying the product represents bad value is not objectively wrong. And saying that is not the same as calling anyone who finds it fun to play "stupid." Those are words you are putting in my mouth.
@Fraz said:
Good morning,
I do not know how long ago nor where I bought this cash box; used it at home sales and flea markets.
I dug it out this morning. It never struck me to pop out the plastic sort tray.
Viola!
1891 P quarter, 1924 dollar, 1948 P half , and a 1964 dime. I have not studied these. They are not attractive pieces.
I do not care for locks without keys; I am happy to get the key.
,
You got a VaultBox ?
.
If you want to share your favorite outtake from the series now is apt.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
Don't tell that to the people buying direct from the mint when the aftermarket value of their coins goes way down. If they paid $3500 for a palladium coin it better keep its value at $3500 by that logic.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
Don't tell that to the people buying direct from the mint when the aftermarket value of their coins goes way down. If they paid $3500 for a palladium coin it better keep its value at $3500 by that logic.
@Fraz said:
Good morning,
I do not know how long ago nor where I bought this cash box; used it at home sales and flea markets.
I dug it out this morning. It never struck me to pop out the plastic sort tray.
Viola!
1891 P quarter, 1924 dollar, 1948 P half , and a 1964 dime. I have not studied these. They are not attractive pieces.
I do not care for locks without keys; I am happy to get the key.
,
You got a VaultBox ?
.
If you want to share your favorite outtake from the series now is apt.
I was a big fan of @Catbert’s “I had an awake nightmare re. Vaultbox thread” 🤣🤣
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
Don't tell that to the people buying direct from the mint when the aftermarket value of their coins goes way down. If they paid $3500 for a palladium coin it better keep its value at $3500 by that logic.
Okay. I won't. No one is guaranteeing the value of precious metals years into the future. There is a huge difference between a government manufacturing collector coins and selling them for a premium, and a retailer packaging previously manufactured and issued coins in a mystery box, and selling them for a premium to their retail value at the time of sale.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
Don't tell that to the people buying direct from the mint when the aftermarket value of their coins goes way down. If they paid $3500 for a palladium coin it better keep its value at $3500 by that logic.
Not to worry. I'm sure that's different.
Yes, it is. Sorry you can't see it, but what the Mint does with precious metals is different from what anyone else, such as SilverTowne, does with them. Mint products carry a premium that might or might not hold in the secondary market.
At the time of issuance, the Mint price IS the market. Not so with a common bullion coin that VB is selling at a huge premium to the price the Mint sold it for at the time of minting, or to the current retail price.
The smart guys don't ever stop to think that maybe, other people value things they don't. And they're not shy about pointing out how you're wrong if you don't agree with them.
The smart guys don't ever stop to think that maybe, other people value things they don't. And they're not shy about pointing out how you're wrong if you don't agree with them.
Time will tell just how many coin collectors think breaking a seal is worth around $300. You clearly don't.
In the meantime, just keep going. And please, don't stop whining about me responding.
@jmlanzaf said:
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
@jmlanzaf said:
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
Only if you guys keep touting it. I think the most exciting thing will be the posts on this forum, and seeing how unopened boxes do on eBay.
We have now all seen where most of the "good" boxes end up, what's in the boxes, and how quickly they sell out, so there is not going to be a lot of excitement there. Watching the influencers open a bunch of duds before the release date would be kind of cool, but I'm not holding my breath.
As long as you continue to admit the value isn't there, there is nothing to argue about. If you are going to keep claiming that breaking a seal is worth $300, and I just don't understand, I'd like to see you report on just how much fun you had after doing so.
If you are not willing to put your money where your mouth is, you really should stop making the claim. If you do that, you won't have to worry about me responding to you over and over and over again.
@jmlanzaf said:
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
Probably the week before. Anticipation is always more exciting than the event.
The only thing that could top this is if NGCX announced they were grading classic coins.
@jmlanzaf said:
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
Probably the week before. Anticipation is always more exciting than the event.
The only thing that could top this is if NGCX announced they were grading classic coins.
Why? You are an experienced collector. What would a 10 point scale on classic coins do for you? The whole idea is to bring the card folks into the hobby, and the brain trust decided that the path of least resistance would be with moderns. Other than the novelty, which will wear off, would you really find anything, classic or modern, to be more attractive in a 10 point slab than a 70 point one?
If it works, it will be geared towards newbies, not you. And it's just waaay too soon to make the call.
Does anyone have any information on how NGCX coins sell compared to other TPGs, or whether a meaningful number are going to people new to the hobby, including VB sales? Without that information, no one (neither NGC nor its dealer clientele) has an incentive to extend this experiment to include other coins.
NGC is much bigger than VB. While I get why you might think it would be cool to be able to include classic coins in VBs, I doubt that's going to drive a decision at NGC. An additional 2400 coins every few months is not going to move the needle for them.
@jmlanzaf said:
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
Probably the week before. Anticipation is always more exciting than the event.
The only thing that could top this is if NGCX announced they were grading classic coins.
@J2035 said:
What's vaultbox? Can someone please help me understand what all the hype is about?
@J2035 said:
The week that vaultbox came out, I bought this for $475 instead. I have a beautiful coin and $100 still in my pocket. I’m happy with my decision, but to each his own!
@J2035 said:
I think you missed the point - over time, new modern collectors can be converted to collecting classics which expands the market.
Of course it’s not the point of the initial vaultbox and I never stated it was.
You seem to conflate NGCX and vaultbox - they aren’t the same thing. Vaultbox seems to be the source of all the buzz - not NGCX. Other companies will jump into the unboxing concept and could very well use PCGS or other TPG coins of any type.
I suspect this thread has about run it's course. When Monday rolls around, (if not sooner), good chances it will finally be put to rest.... like the earlier one.
But then as I think about it? No point in closing the thread.... another one will then be started and we will probably go down the same road again! We are in.... the Twilight Zone.... cue the music.... (why do I keep coming back to look at this thread?? lol)
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
But you're not just receiving the coins. You're receiving a chance to get a red slab coin worth much more than $600. Of course, this is how the lottery works and there you don't get anything if you lose.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
But you're not just receiving the coins. You're receiving a chance to get a red slab coin worth much more than $600. Of course, this is how the lottery works and there you don't get anything if you lose.
I understand. Lotteries are also bad deals because, even after taking into account the huge jackpots, they return around 50 cents for every dollar collected.
Casinos work on much smaller margins, as do coin dealers. VB isn't quite as bad as a negative 50% expected return, but it is far above typical dealer markups, even after taking into account the $23,000 potential jackpot, and the other, smaller, prizes.
Fair value is paying $1 for a 50% of receiving $2 back and 50% of receiving $0. Two people paying $1.50 each to play that game would be a terrible deal, even though one of them will receive a 33% return on his "investment," because the expected return, over time, is negative 33%. Every time you'd play you'd have a chance to make 50 cents on your $1.50, but over time you'd be guaranteed to lose $1 for every $3 you put into the game.
That's VB. The numbers are not exact, but, by way of example, VB is selling a 0.125% chance (1 in 800) of receiving $23,000, and an 80% or so chance of receiving $300 or less, with 20% or so some other value in between, for $600.
The expected return, after taking all possibilities into account, is far less than a typical dealer markup on retail transactions. That constitutes the magic of the business for VB, assuming it has staying power, and why it's a terrible deal for customers chasing jackpots. By dangling 0.125% possibility of a $23,000 jackpot, they are able to sell over 2300 common bullion coins at far higher than typical dealer markups, even after taking into account the value of the red slabs.
Over time, the average person loses a lot, as people widely reported as they cracked their seals. If you bought all 800 boxes, you'd be guaranteed to get all the winners, and also be guaranteed to receive far less than $480,000, retail, in value, in return for your $480,000. That's the point. Buying a 1/800th piece of that pot for $600 is nothing other than a sucker's bet.
And that's before even getting into questions about how the red slabs were distributed. Casinos and lotteries are regulated and audited. VB is not.
@J2035 said:
What's vaultbox? Can someone please help me understand what all the hype is about?
@J2035 said:
The week that vaultbox came out, I bought this for $475 instead. I have a beautiful coin and $100 still in my pocket. I’m happy with my decision, but to each his own!
@J2035 said:
I think you missed the point - over time, new modern collectors can be converted to collecting classics which expands the market.
Of course it’s not the point of the initial vaultbox and I never stated it was.
You seem to conflate NGCX and vaultbox - they aren’t the same thing. Vaultbox seems to be the source of all the buzz - not NGCX. Other companies will jump into the unboxing concept and could very well use PCGS or other TPG coins of any type.
Seriously, why?
At this point, just basking in the absurdity of this thread.
@J2035 said:
What's vaultbox? Can someone please help me understand what all the hype is about?
@J2035 said:
The week that vaultbox came out, I bought this for $475 instead. I have a beautiful coin and $100 still in my pocket. I’m happy with my decision, but to each his own!
@J2035 said:
I think you missed the point - over time, new modern collectors can be converted to collecting classics which expands the market.
Of course it’s not the point of the initial vaultbox and I never stated it was.
You seem to conflate NGCX and vaultbox - they aren’t the same thing. Vaultbox seems to be the source of all the buzz - not NGCX. Other companies will jump into the unboxing concept and could very well use PCGS or other TPG coins of any type.
Seriously, why?
At this point, just basking in the absurdity of this thread.
Even though I'm a major part of it, I can't disagree.
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
But you're not just receiving the coins. You're receiving a chance to get a red slab coin worth much more than $600. Of course, this is how the lottery works and there you don't get anything if you lose.
I understand. Lotteries are also bad deals because, even after taking into account the huge jackpots, they return around 50 cents for every dollar collected.
I'm not saying it's a good deal or even a neutral deal. I'm just giving a reason why people are willing to pay more.
@tincup said:
But then as I think about it? No point in closing the thread.... another one will then be started and we will probably go down the same road again! We are in.... the Twilight Zone.... cue the music.... (why do I keep coming back to look at this thread?? lol)
More like groundhog day without the benefit of learning the piano.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@3stars said:
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
But you're not just receiving the coins. You're receiving a chance to get a red slab coin worth much more than $600. Of course, this is how the lottery works and there you don't get anything if you lose.
I understand. Lotteries are also bad deals because, even after taking into account the huge jackpots, they return around 50 cents for every dollar collected.
I'm not saying it's a good deal or even a neutral deal. I'm just giving a reason why people are willing to pay more.
I can't disagree. In fact, based on the fast sell out and the fact that they sold for big premiums on eBay, one could argue they were under priced.
Of course, that was before people saw exactly what they were. If that happens again (quick sell out, followed by 100%+ markups on eBay), then these guys have a big winner on their hands, and should probably consider either raising the price (or lowering the value of the boxes) or increasing the size of each series, since the market would be placing a huge premium on breaking seals, and they should further monetize that.
I believe that if anyone else posted what you just did, you’d accuse them of supporting the product.
It doesn’t matter that you don’t actually support it, only that your post didn’t denounce it and there’s a chance that it could be construed as supporting it.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I believe that if anyone else posted what you just did, you’d accuse them of supporting the product.
It doesn’t matter that you don’t actually support it, only that your post didn’t denounce it and there’s a chance that it could be construed as supporting it.
I believe with 99.999% certainty you are correct, as prior evidence shows.
@J2035 said:
What's vaultbox? Can someone please help me understand what all the hype is about?
@J2035 said:
The week that vaultbox came out, I bought this for $475 instead. I have a beautiful coin and $100 still in my pocket. I’m happy with my decision, but to each his own!
@J2035 said:
I think you missed the point - over time, new modern collectors can be converted to collecting classics which expands the market.
Of course it’s not the point of the initial vaultbox and I never stated it was.
You seem to conflate NGCX and vaultbox - they aren’t the same thing. Vaultbox seems to be the source of all the buzz - not NGCX. Other companies will jump into the unboxing concept and could very well use PCGS or other TPG coins of any type.
Seriously, why?
At this point, just basking in the absurdity of this thread.
Even though I'm a major part of it, I can't disagree.
In seriousness, I think you are missing the point that many people might still want to buy vaultbox despite the financial implications.
I think you are getting a lot of push back here because your arguments imply that vaultbox is not an appropriate way to have fun with coins. While vaultbox (in its current form) is not for me, I routinely spend $300+ in this hobby and have nothing to show for it. For example, hotel, airfare and meals at a major show easily run $1,000+. I could stay home and just buy coins online and save $1,000, but that is not as fun. Another example are the labels I collect. I put together registry sets of both the 2019 W and 2020 W quarters and paid a premium for "First Week of Discovery" labels. I know full well that I likely won't be able to recoup my money in 20 years, but I just don't care. I thought the W quarter release and hunt was pretty cool. The "First Week of Discovery" label represents the thrill of the hunt for me.
If you like unboxing and gambling a bit (e.g. lotto, Vegas, poker, etc.), vaultbox seems like great way to have fun with coins and I understand that appeal. If your goal is to invest in coins and make money, then vaultbox should be avoided. Different people have different objectives with their collecting and that's what makes it diverse and fun.
I believe that if anyone else posted what you just did, you’d accuse them of supporting the product.
It doesn’t matter that you don’t actually support it, only that your post didn’t denounce it and there’s a chance that it could be construed as supporting it.
Absolutely correct! I'm past denouncing the product, other than in response to people supporting it. I was just agreeing with @Zoins that people were willing to pay a big premium above fair value.
It remains to be seen if that continues, now that the bloom is off the rose and people no longer have to imagine what an unboxing will look like. If it does, and the product continues to sell out rapidly and then sell for a premium on the secondary market, then it is undeniable that it is under priced by VB.
Comments
If only one of my superiors could do the math for me.
Okay, but in that case we should be talking about coin prices, not VaultBoxes.
Right! Like VaultBoxes? If so, THAT's my point!!!
Forget about the math. You don't need it when you have a smart person to tell you when what you're doing isn't a good idea.
Especially when NONE of you are actually doing it. Just arguing, ad infinitum, why no one should advise others to follow your example by shunning it.
We're not arguing. But we can't seem to have a friendly discussion about anything without some jackhole jumping in and repeating himself.
I showed a picture of a VB coin that I bought and you jumped in with accusations and the same tired argument.
Two of us were talking about sports cards and you jump in with the same tired arguments.
We can't say anything without you jumping in and repeating yourself. None of us are arguing with anyone but you and that's only because you keep jumping into every discussion. And none of us have even mentioned VB boxes with you, we just keep mentioning your behavior.
I bought a VB for $600 and got about $450 in value - if I really cared about getting $600 in coins for $600 I'd buy them sight seen. I gambled and took a small loss, but I've lost more on a single hand of blackjack and still had fun. You assume that people buying are getting hosed, but part of the fun (and risk) is knowing that you have a small chance at getting something bigger. No regrets on my part. Heck, I could have purchased a $3500 pallidum coin from the mint only to have it be worth about 50% less today.
Good luck trying to explain this to some people.
Actually, many of your "friendly discussions" in this thread include snide references to me.
Just who is the "smart person" @MasonG is referring to?
Who are the "superiors" you seek to do math for you?
Who's telling @MasonG that hobby boxes are not good investments?
If it's the "jackhole" you are referring to above, maybe he considers the references to be an invitation to respond.
You publicly congratulated yourself on scoring a VB coin at a fraction of its cost. Maybe you should have kept that to yourself, because it afforded me an opportunity to point out how all of your arguments about how great VB would be for the hobby are refuted by people being able to buy the coins at steep discounts so soon after issuance. Taking the "fun" out of being able to profit from the losses of others.
But you're right -- you can have all the friendly discussions you want in private. If you bring them onto a public forum, you invite public responses, even if they are the same tired responses from the same tired people. There is an easy way to avoid it, but you are probably incapable of availing yourself of it.
If you received about $450 in value, you did better than most. Based on how they ran the distribution, and the fact that it is unregulated and unsupervised, your chance of doing better might be even smaller than you realize. If you are fine with it, and had fun losing that $150, more power to you. I'm absolutely not trying to tell you what to do.
Doesn't mean you didn't get hosed, or that others didn't get hosed worse. But, if you are fine with it, I really am not judging, believe it or not. Others are putting words in my mouth.
Yeah. Good luck.
Most people spending $600 on coins expect to receive $600 worth of coins, sight unseen or otherwise. I actually don't understand someone not caring about what they are getting in return for their money, although I don't deny anyone the right to do whatever they want with their money.
You mean by continuing to say (but not in so many words) "I don't understand why other people value things differently than I do and even though I don't, I'm still going to tell them that their opinions are wrong"?
That sort of repeating?
Or, the kind of repeating where someone keeps accusing someone of telling other people that their opinions are wrong, when he's really just calling them a bunch of hypocrites. No one is telling anyone who knowingly chooses to throw away money that they have no right to do it, or are "wrong" for doing so.
Saying the product represents bad value is not objectively wrong. And saying that is not the same as calling anyone who finds it fun to play "stupid." Those are words you are putting in my mouth.
I wax about my favorite moment in the VB threads and it wasn’t in a VB thread. It was in Saturday Morning Coffee and Coins:
If you want to share your favorite outtake from the series now is apt.
Don't tell that to the people buying direct from the mint when the aftermarket value of their coins goes way down. If they paid $3500 for a palladium coin it better keep its value at $3500 by that logic.
Not to worry. I'm sure that's different.
I was a big fan of @Catbert’s “I had an awake nightmare re. Vaultbox thread” 🤣🤣
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Okay. I won't. No one is guaranteeing the value of precious metals years into the future. There is a huge difference between a government manufacturing collector coins and selling them for a premium, and a retailer packaging previously manufactured and issued coins in a mystery box, and selling them for a premium to their retail value at the time of sale.
Yes, it is. Sorry you can't see it, but what the Mint does with precious metals is different from what anyone else, such as SilverTowne, does with them. Mint products carry a premium that might or might not hold in the secondary market.
At the time of issuance, the Mint price IS the market. Not so with a common bullion coin that VB is selling at a huge premium to the price the Mint sold it for at the time of minting, or to the current retail price.
Night and day different.
Still a classic, the definition of pathos.
Definitely not from Atlantic City
The smart guys don't ever stop to think that maybe, other people value things they don't. And they're not shy about pointing out how you're wrong if you don't agree with them.
Time will tell just how many coin collectors think breaking a seal is worth around $300. You clearly don't.
In the meantime, just keep going. And please, don't stop whining about me responding.
So sad. 🤣🤣🤣
Never mind. I'm not getting dragged back into this nonsense.
I look forward to VB 2. It appears to be the most exciting thing in the hobby.
I think the most exciting part will be hearing (again and again and again) how poor a value VB2 is, from people who obviously don't understand the value of VB1. What do you think the most exciting part will be?
Only if you guys keep touting it. I think the most exciting thing will be the posts on this forum, and seeing how unopened boxes do on eBay.
We have now all seen where most of the "good" boxes end up, what's in the boxes, and how quickly they sell out, so there is not going to be a lot of excitement there. Watching the influencers open a bunch of duds before the release date would be kind of cool, but I'm not holding my breath.
As long as you continue to admit the value isn't there, there is nothing to argue about. If you are going to keep claiming that breaking a seal is worth $300, and I just don't understand, I'd like to see you report on just how much fun you had after doing so.
If you are not willing to put your money where your mouth is, you really should stop making the claim. If you do that, you won't have to worry about me responding to you over and over and over again.
@MasonG said:
Probably the week before. Anticipation is always more exciting than the event.
The only thing that could top this is if NGCX announced they were grading classic coins.
Why? You are an experienced collector. What would a 10 point scale on classic coins do for you? The whole idea is to bring the card folks into the hobby, and the brain trust decided that the path of least resistance would be with moderns. Other than the novelty, which will wear off, would you really find anything, classic or modern, to be more attractive in a 10 point slab than a 70 point one?
If it works, it will be geared towards newbies, not you. And it's just waaay too soon to make the call.
Does anyone have any information on how NGCX coins sell compared to other TPGs, or whether a meaningful number are going to people new to the hobby, including VB sales? Without that information, no one (neither NGC nor its dealer clientele) has an incentive to extend this experiment to include other coins.
NGC is much bigger than VB. While I get why you might think it would be cool to be able to include classic coins in VBs, I doubt that's going to drive a decision at NGC. An additional 2400 coins every few months is not going to move the needle for them.
It's still early. Never say never.
I LOVE Bill Murray!🤣😂
I have a headache…
What's vaultbox? Can someone please help me understand what all the hype is about?
Seriously, why?
I suspect this thread has about run it's course. When Monday rolls around, (if not sooner), good chances it will finally be put to rest.... like the earlier one.
But then as I think about it? No point in closing the thread.... another one will then be started and we will probably go down the same road again! We are in.... the Twilight Zone.... cue the music.... (why do I keep coming back to look at this thread?? lol)
But you're not just receiving the coins. You're receiving a chance to get a red slab coin worth much more than $600. Of course, this is how the lottery works and there you don't get anything if you lose.
I understand. Lotteries are also bad deals because, even after taking into account the huge jackpots, they return around 50 cents for every dollar collected.
Casinos work on much smaller margins, as do coin dealers. VB isn't quite as bad as a negative 50% expected return, but it is far above typical dealer markups, even after taking into account the $23,000 potential jackpot, and the other, smaller, prizes.
Fair value is paying $1 for a 50% of receiving $2 back and 50% of receiving $0. Two people paying $1.50 each to play that game would be a terrible deal, even though one of them will receive a 33% return on his "investment," because the expected return, over time, is negative 33%. Every time you'd play you'd have a chance to make 50 cents on your $1.50, but over time you'd be guaranteed to lose $1 for every $3 you put into the game.
That's VB. The numbers are not exact, but, by way of example, VB is selling a 0.125% chance (1 in 800) of receiving $23,000, and an 80% or so chance of receiving $300 or less, with 20% or so some other value in between, for $600.
The expected return, after taking all possibilities into account, is far less than a typical dealer markup on retail transactions. That constitutes the magic of the business for VB, assuming it has staying power, and why it's a terrible deal for customers chasing jackpots. By dangling 0.125% possibility of a $23,000 jackpot, they are able to sell over 2300 common bullion coins at far higher than typical dealer markups, even after taking into account the value of the red slabs.
Over time, the average person loses a lot, as people widely reported as they cracked their seals. If you bought all 800 boxes, you'd be guaranteed to get all the winners, and also be guaranteed to receive far less than $480,000, retail, in value, in return for your $480,000. That's the point. Buying a 1/800th piece of that pot for $600 is nothing other than a sucker's bet.
And that's before even getting into questions about how the red slabs were distributed. Casinos and lotteries are regulated and audited. VB is not.
At this point, just basking in the absurdity of this thread.
Even though I'm a major part of it, I can't disagree.
I'm not saying it's a good deal or even a neutral deal. I'm just giving a reason why people are willing to pay more.
More like groundhog day without the benefit of learning the piano.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I can't disagree. In fact, based on the fast sell out and the fact that they sold for big premiums on eBay, one could argue they were under priced.
Of course, that was before people saw exactly what they were. If that happens again (quick sell out, followed by 100%+ markups on eBay), then these guys have a big winner on their hands, and should probably consider either raising the price (or lowering the value of the boxes) or increasing the size of each series, since the market would be placing a huge premium on breaking seals, and they should further monetize that.
I believe that if anyone else posted what you just did, you’d accuse them of supporting the product.
It doesn’t matter that you don’t actually support it, only that your post didn’t denounce it and there’s a chance that it could be construed as supporting it.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
At this point I feel the need to point out I asked for the other 2 threads to be closed due to the constant drumming of the repetitive drum.
This time I created a thread as an update only for those that had an interest in VaultBox 2 and that a survey is being circulated for feedback.
Even though I feel that this thread has gone off the rails once again I have not nor will I ask for the thread to be closed.
I can only hope that a certain contributor will have an epiphany and the repetitive drumming will cease....🤞
I believe with 99.999% certainty you are correct, as prior evidence shows.
In seriousness, I think you are missing the point that many people might still want to buy vaultbox despite the financial implications.
I think you are getting a lot of push back here because your arguments imply that vaultbox is not an appropriate way to have fun with coins. While vaultbox (in its current form) is not for me, I routinely spend $300+ in this hobby and have nothing to show for it. For example, hotel, airfare and meals at a major show easily run $1,000+. I could stay home and just buy coins online and save $1,000, but that is not as fun. Another example are the labels I collect. I put together registry sets of both the 2019 W and 2020 W quarters and paid a premium for "First Week of Discovery" labels. I know full well that I likely won't be able to recoup my money in 20 years, but I just don't care. I thought the W quarter release and hunt was pretty cool. The "First Week of Discovery" label represents the thrill of the hunt for me.
If you like unboxing and gambling a bit (e.g. lotto, Vegas, poker, etc.), vaultbox seems like great way to have fun with coins and I understand that appeal. If your goal is to invest in coins and make money, then vaultbox should be avoided. Different people have different objectives with their collecting and that's what makes it diverse and fun.
Absolutely correct! I'm past denouncing the product, other than in response to people supporting it. I was just agreeing with @Zoins that people were willing to pay a big premium above fair value.
It remains to be seen if that continues, now that the bloom is off the rose and people no longer have to imagine what an unboxing will look like. If it does, and the product continues to sell out rapidly and then sell for a premium on the secondary market, then it is undeniable that it is under priced by VB.
Could someone help? I just rolled my eyes so much they plum fell outta my head...
If that’s the case, you won’t see this or any other posts, so you’ll never know whether someone tries to help. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.