@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Doesn't sound crazy. Especially if you are willing to work on smaller margins than the folks behind VB. And be far more transparent and fair with respect to distribution.
All kidding aside, what makes you think you are anywhere near big enough to get NGCX interested in you? There were hundreds of thousands of dollars behind VB Series 1, and Minshull has been a major player forever.
In addition, what makes you think VB doesn't have an exclusive on these with NGCX? They created it. I'd be shocked if they didn't tie up NGCX contractually to prevent them from being associated with whatever clones might spring up if VB turns out to have legs. If they were REALLY smart, they might even have a patent preventing anyone from doing anything similar with any grading service.
If you are serious, you might have better luck with our hosts. Again, assuming you are big enough to get them interested in working with you, and assuming they'd have any interest in being connected to anything like this.
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
I’d be in for a CAC mystery box too
Right. That describes most grab bags, which have been around forever.
This is different because it's a lottery with a significant upside, as well as a significant downside for a majority of purchasers. It isn't a grab bag or mystery box, and isn't marketed as such. Which is why fair, supervised distribution should be a component.
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
I’d be in for a CAC mystery box too
Right. That describes most grab bags, which have been around forever.
This is different because it's a lottery with a significant upside, as well as a significant downside for a majority of purchasers. It isn't a grab bag or mystery box, and isn't marketed as such. Which is why fair, supervised distribution should be a component.
Just to be clear, I never stated that they were the same concept or that I support Vaultbox.
I am stating I may be interested in purchasing a high quality selection of ancients in a mystery box format. Or CAC material. Or something else that may catch my eye in the future.
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
I’d be in for a CAC mystery box too
Right. That describes most grab bags, which have been around forever.
This is different because it's a lottery with a significant upside, as well as a significant downside for a majority of purchasers. It isn't a grab bag or mystery box, and isn't marketed as such. Which is why fair, supervised distribution should be a component.
Just to be clear, I never stated that they were the same concept or that I support Vaultbox.
I am stating I may be interested in purchasing a high quality selection of ancients in a mystery box format. Or CAC material. Or something else that may catch my eye in the future.
I think there's a lot of ways to make the hobby box format work that would be fun for a lot of people. Certainly, some people will never be enticed to take part. But for those that want to have a little fun, this could be made very interesting...without the need for some kind of elaborate oversight.
@3stars said:
" if pricing was more in line with actual value"
So then each box should be priced based on its contents, which defeats the purpose and point of VB. If I'm paying $20k for the box with the V75 gold in it, I know what I'm getting and could have just purchased one from a dealer.
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
I’d be in for a CAC mystery box too
Right. That describes most grab bags, which have been around forever.
This is different because it's a lottery with a significant upside, as well as a significant downside for a majority of purchasers. It isn't a grab bag or mystery box, and isn't marketed as such. Which is why fair, supervised distribution should be a component.
Just to be clear, I never stated that they were the same concept or that I support Vaultbox.
I am stating I may be interested in purchasing a high quality selection of ancients in a mystery box format. Or CAC material. Or something else that may catch my eye in the future.
I think there's a lot of ways to make the hobby box format work that would be fun for a lot of people. Certainly, some people will never be enticed to take part. But for those that want to have a little fun, this could be made very interesting...without the need for some kind of elaborate oversight.
I actually agree. But that would involve turning it into something it is not, e.g., a grab bag rather than a lottery.
Everyone winning, or at least breaking even, does not require oversight. Winners and losers, OTOH, does. Otherwise, greed and temptation ultimately becomes an issue.
You guys are fun. Any of you ever watch the “ ole chopper “ on TV. Apparently not. 😂😂. He’s been selling “ evidence mystery boxes” for $79 for years. Bags or boxes. How about those rolls of cc Morgan’s. Your really missing alot. If anything, VB ripped off poor ole Chopper.
Have fun. 👍🏼
@Jzyskowski1 said:
You guys are fun. Any of you ever watch the “ ole chopper “ on TV. Apparently not. 😂😂. He’s been selling “ evidence mystery boxes” for $79 for years. Bags or boxes. How about those rolls of cc Morgan’s. Your really missing alot. If anything, VB ripped off poor ole Chopper.
Have fun. 👍🏼
Yeah, it's not really a new concept. Even in numismatics, it used to be common for BM stores to have a grab bag wall. And hobby boxes are quite common in sports cards, as I've said 50 times. Lol.
I just appreciate someone doing some marketing and trying to broaden the base a little bit. Plus it's fun to have new slabs out there.
And i do think you could combine this with the registry set structure to create a fun little treasure hunt.
And there are a lot of fairly cheap sectors you could explore to create value: NCLT topical themes, clad commems, ancients, modern world, medieval Europe.
If i had more resources, I'd dive in with both feet and try to create some of these things.
@Jzyskowski1 said:
You guys are fun. Any of you ever watch the “ ole chopper “ on TV. Apparently not. 😂😂. He’s been selling “ evidence mystery boxes” for $79 for years. Bags or boxes. How about those rolls of cc Morgan’s. Your really missing alot. If anything, VB ripped off poor ole Chopper.
Have fun. 👍🏼
I know exactly what you are talking about, and I have seen him while channel surfing late Saturday night.
To be fair to both VB and mystery boxes and grab bags everywhere, no, what Chopper is doing is not the same. I don't know what the hell his Fort Knox evidence bags are supposed to be, but the "original" Morgan bank rolls are simply the same scams you see all the time on eBay.
Legit mystery boxes are also widely sold on eBay, and they are the real deal, similar to what @jmlanzaf is describing. You don't know exactly what you are going to get, but you are promised more in retail value than what you pay, and they deliver exactly that, for those who like the thrill of opening a Cracker Jack box and don't want to get ripped off.
I hate to defend VB, but it's not the same as Chopper. VB did publish a list of coins, and I'm sure every coin on the list ended up somewhere. The implications about how it is impossible to know what's inside a sealed box, how VB is hardly making anything on the first series, and how the distribution is totally random are closer to what Chopper does. OTOH, Chopper is careful not to make any promises, but he strongly implies that he is selling something that he does not have. He never actually promises even one uncirculated 1889-CC will be in the roll.
One can almost say his buyers get what they deserve, because he is implying that he is selling $100K+ worth of coins for less than $2K. Anyone who thinks anyone would actually do that gets what they deserve, sophisticated or not. That's just pure greed and stupidity on the part of the buyers.
He does the same thing with Dan Carr overstrikes that he misrepresents as US Mint patterns. That's a closer call with respect to people getting what they deserve, because there is really no way for a casual viewer flipping channels to know that the overstrikes are not actually patterns. OTOH, his prices for the Carr pieces are not totally crazy. Certainly nowhere near $2K, so, there's that.
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Retail, not wholesale. That's how all businesses operate. People don't usually buy anything willingly at an excess of its market price. That includes grab bags of coins. Sellers usually sell them at a slight discount to the market, the same way any company sells distressed merchandise at a discount, or just makes money by running "sales."
Packaging, distribution, labor, etc. are all overhead that is built into the retail price. If you cannot make money selling at the market after taking those costs into account, then you don't have a viable business. Probably the reason a lot of Mom and Pop stores go out of business after Walmart blows into a small town.
The grab bag sellers on eBay don't have big overhead to take into account, and they do just fine doing exactly what I described. If VB cannot make money selling at retail, OR convince buyers that its bullion is worth a premium to retail due to its packaging, distribution, labor, etc., then it, too, won't have much of a long term future.
Some folks here are working overtime to convince everyone else that the lottery ticket embedded into the VB is worth a premium to the expected value of the ticket. Time will tell whether or not the market agrees. I certainly do not.
The other way to get people to pay above market, to take increased selling costs into account, is to sell to people who do not know what the market is. That's the business model of the folks selling on TV at 100%+ markups to retail.
But that is not how VB is selling, or who it is selling to, so I don't see how that's a long term strategy for success. It's definitely true that I could be wrong, and that knowledgeable people are indeed willing to pay a premium to expected retail value for the thrill of the box break. Time will tell.
For the record though, with all the back and forth, I haven't seen a single knowledgeable person here say "sounds good, sign me up" to pay a premium to expected value for a VB, other than those who dabbled in the beginning to test the waters. And none of them has indicated a desire to go back for seconds.
Is that because they are all afraid to get criticized by me? Maybe, but that hasn't stopped a lot of other folks from pushing back, hard, on my posts, so I really don't think that explains the lack of enthusiasm here to actually buy the product. As opposed to a ton of enthusiasm to discuss, debate and promote it.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Yes. This is exactly what grab bag buyers do. It might not be for you, and that's fine. But some people just like the thrill of the unknown, and the ability to get "a deal" by getting a bunch of coins for something below retail.
You want to play the lottery, and that's fine too. It's just not that attractive to a lot of coin collectors, who are by nature kind of conservative. Which is why the product is receiving the reception it is here, despite the spirited posts back and forth.
In addition, there is "breaking even" and then there is "breaking even." Buying a piece of a pool of 2,400 coins, with an aggregate retail value of $480,000, for a collective $480,000, would be "breaking even," even if your $600 box only contained $400 worth of coins, because someone else in the pool would be capturing that $200, by definition. You can still win a prize without getting screwed by playing, depending on how the box is priced and distributed. And VB should be able to make money at that price, since typical retail markups on nearly $500K worth of modern graded coins should cover all their costs, plus a reasonable profit.
Now, if you, and a lot of other people, are willing to assign a value of $200 to simply the possibility of scoring a prize, then, yes, they should only place an aggregate of $320,000 worth of coins in those 800 boxes, and should place the $160,000 premium you and everyone else is willing to pay directly into their pocket.
So far, though, while you speak glowingly of what you "need" to make it interesting to you, you have only shown a willingness to buy a coin already pulled from a box at a huge haircut to what the initial buyer paid. So it's fair to take your musings about how boxes should be priced and sold with a hefty grain of salt. I happen to think the product would be a lot more interesting if it was priced more in line with the market value of what was inside, in the aggregate, including the value of the prizes, and if distribution of the prizes was supervised by an independent third party. YMMV.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
@NJCoin said:
For the record though, with all the back and forth, I haven't seen a single knowledgeable person here say "sounds good, sign me up" to pay a premium to expected value for a VB, other than those who dabbled in the beginning to test the waters. And none of them has indicated a desire to go back for seconds.
Is that because they are all afraid to get criticized by me? Maybe, but that hasn't stopped a lot of other folks from pushing back, hard, on my posts, so I really don't think that explains the lack of enthusiasm here to actually buy the product. As opposed to a ton of enthusiasm to discuss, debate and promote it.
You seem to have made some widespread conclusions based off seeing only a handful of box opening videos (less than 1% of the total sold!), and by user comments (or lack of them) here.
You do realize that many people have zero interest in taking part in threads like this simply because of the exhaustive, childish banter present, right? Also, maybe people who had fun with their VB just don’t see any value in sharing that information. Finally, the LARGE majority of the coin collecting population does not participate in this (or maybe) any online forum.
I Just can’t see how you were (as you said) vindicated by the results of the first series of VB. Your sample size is incredibly small.
@jmlanzaf said:
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Whoever attempts something like this is going to have to deal with their idea being met with disapproval from anonymous message board posters. A huge hurdle to clear, no doubt.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
I'll meet you halfway, because you make some fair points. If VB is actually creating value with their slabs, they have a right to capture some of it, just like TPGs do by charging dealers different prices for 70s than 69s, or pricing some services at a percent of the value of the coin.
OTOH, any premium attached to VB slabs is speculative, at best, at this point in time. And you should really be the last person making the argument, given how you have shown no willingness to pay a premium, and openly bragged about stripping any possible premium away from what you paid for your first VB "score."
The simple fact is that a few early sellers on eBay were able to get a premium for VB pulls, but many other coins are languishing on eBay with no takers at the premiums sought. In addition, VB itself is not establishing a premium in its buy back offers, so it truly is unclear if there is ever going to be a premium attached to the slabs themselves.
Whether so-called "limited editions," beyond the limited edition that the slabs themselves already represent, will attract any interest, only time will tell. But that seems very doubtful. The only place I have ever seen that is on TV, where the target market is folks who have no idea what they are doing. There is no established premium secondary market for any "limited edition" slab sold on TV, so I'm not sure where the buyers are going to come from for whatever a hologram or prism VB slab equivalent would be.
@NJCoin said:
For the record though, with all the back and forth, I haven't seen a single knowledgeable person here say "sounds good, sign me up" to pay a premium to expected value for a VB, other than those who dabbled in the beginning to test the waters. And none of them has indicated a desire to go back for seconds.
Is that because they are all afraid to get criticized by me? Maybe, but that hasn't stopped a lot of other folks from pushing back, hard, on my posts, so I really don't think that explains the lack of enthusiasm here to actually buy the product. As opposed to a ton of enthusiasm to discuss, debate and promote it.
You seem to have made some widespread conclusions based off seeing only a handful of box opening videos (less than 1% of the total sold!), and by user comments (or lack of them) here.
You do realize that many people have zero interest in taking part in threads like this simply because of the exhaustive, childish banter present, right? Also, maybe people who had fun with their VB just don’t see any value in sharing that information. Finally, the LARGE majority of the coin collecting population does not participate in this (or maybe) any online forum.
I Just can’t see how you were (as you said) vindicated by the results of the first series of VB. Your sample size is incredibly small.
True, true, true. The sample size is small, but so is the population (800 max, less however many people bought 2). Between here, YouTube and reddit, I'm pretty comfortable with my conclusions.
I went out on limb before the first boxes were released, and all of my concerns were actualized through first hand observation and second hand reports. I'm now doing it again.
I think there will be a fast sell out, with a lot more boxes showing up on eBay than the first time around. A few lucky early sellers will do well, and everyone else won't. I honestly have no way to know whether the selling price will ever dip below the issue price, but, I think the excitement will be over once people see there is no easy quick flip, because there is no organic demand to pay even $600 to open a box with an average value of around $400-500 worth of coins, including the home runs, and with the vast majority of boxes being worth far less than that.
I also don't think people have stars in their eyes about hitting home runs any longer after seeing how Series 1 played out. Whether people respond to whatever fixes VB offers also remains to be seen, or whether it turns out to be true that they only had one opportunity to make a first impression.
@jmlanzaf said:
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Whoever attempts something like this is going to have to deal with their idea being met with disapproval from anonymous message board posters. A huge hurdle to clear, no doubt.
Yup. It's humbling to realize the amount of power and influence I have apparently amassed in such a short period of time, at least in your eyes, simply by posting here.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
They do it because they do make money. But they don't sell to coin people who have their own sources of material. They pay a premium in marketing to reach people who aren't reached by other methods. Obviously, they have a place and they do make money or they wouldn't do it.
I'm neither promoting nor condemning them. But the economics of it are simply different.
@Project Numismatics said:
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
What are the fixed costs of the operation?
What is NGC charging for the slabbing and packing of the boxes?
What are the marketing costs?
distribution costs?
etc.
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
They do it because they do make money. But they don't sell to coin people who have their own sources of material. They pay a premium in marketing to reach people who aren't reached by other methods. Obviously, they have a place and they do make money or they wouldn't do it.
I'm neither promoting nor condemning them. But the economics of it are simply different.
Maybe for the first time, I am going to 1,000,000% agree with you. TV telemarketers do have a place. Just not for us. Their distribution costs are off the charts, but they have a viable business because they sell to people who are unaware of true retail value.
The question then becomes whether people who do know true value will be a market for VB, in return for the thrill of the lottery.
@fathom is spot on, and you are dead wrong, if your assertion is that VB is not making "excess" profits due to an abnormally high cost of distribution. If that is, in fact, the case (and I seriously doubt that it is), then it is doomed to fail.
Unless, as @fathom correctly asserts, they can develop a market among people who do not know value. Because what they are selling is common.
While you speculate about them possibly turning the common into the uncommon through slab gimmicks, you yourself have shown yourself to be immune to that through your "score." So just who among us do you think would actually fall for it? Card collectors? So far, there is scant evidence that they became coin collectors through this, just because the coins came in a sealed box similar to card hobby boxes.
Because I guess you are right, if you are thinking that card collectors could get sucked in like anyone watching HSN, insofar as both sets of customers are ignorant as to true value. The question then would become whether you would think that would be any better for the hobby than everyone selling overpriced crap on TV?
All of your posts suggest this would be different. Sorry, but I don't see how selling to people at inflated prices helps anyone other than the person who made the sale. As @fathom again stated, having inflated selling costs really just suggests that the seller should find another way to make a living, because it is usually unsustainable, due to market competition.
Home shopping on TV seems to be an exception to that rule. So @fathom is right yet again. Maybe the market for these is on TV, where value has a very tenuous relationship to selling price. Selling on the internet is the exact opposite, due to the availability of a ton of information.
All the public evidence suggests the majority of people participating in Series 1 were existing coin collectors. And that the majority of them, roughly corresponding to the published odds of receiving a "losing" box, were dissatisfied with their experience, because they apparently did not place a value on the thrill of breaking the seal anywhere near the delta between what they paid and what they received in value from the coins themselves.
@fathom said:
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
Then why are people complaining about the value (or, more accurately, perceived lack thereof)?
Are they, though? I mean unique to VB. We have threads all over this place where people are calling certain coins overvalued, complaining about getting blown out of the water at auction etc. We also have people happily showing off some of those same coins won at auction.
90+% of the value complaints are from people who didn't buy them. Duh. That's why they didn't buy them. The same thing is true of Mint products, old gold, silver eagles, etc. Almost by definition, anything you choose not to buy doesn't seem a reasonavle value to you.
I'm fine with people both finding value here and finding a lack of value in exactly the same place. I'm prone to let people just do what they want.
@Project Numismatics said:
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
What are the fixed costs of the operation?
What is NGC charging for the slabbing and packing of the boxes?
What are the marketing costs?
distribution costs?
etc.
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
I think you’re getting a bit caught up in the semantics and in the weeds - it’s not quite that complicated.
We should be able to come up with good idea of the total retail value of the all the coins distributed vs. the total price charged for all the boxes. Was the total retail value of all the combined boxes significantly different than the total price charged for all boxes?
That will help answer the questions of whether the markup was fair or typical for the coin industry.
If VB paid too much to acquire the coins, slab or market them, then it’s on them - and doesn’t make excessive markups fair for the consumer.
Then there’s the question of the public statements they made concerning their markups.
FWIW, it's almost impossible for VB to have made money on the first offering. Just staff salaries and benefits for those first 3 ir 4 months of operation leading to the first release are likely close to the total sales of $480,000.
@jmlanzaf said:
Are they, though? I mean unique to VB.
Actually, it's not unique to VB. As another poster noted...
@jmlanzaf said:
We have threads all over this place where people are calling certain coins overvalued, complaining about getting blown out of the water at auction etc. We also have people happily showing off some of those same coins won at auction.
Yep.
@jmlanzaf said:
90+% of the value complaints are from people who didn't buy them. Duh. That's why they didn't buy them. The same thing is true of Mint products, old gold, silver eagles, etc. Almost by definition, anything you choose not to buy doesn't seem a reasonavle value to you.
Can't argue with that.
@jmlanzaf said:
I'm fine with people both finding value here and finding a lack of value in exactly the same place. I'm prone to let people just do what they want.
@Project Numismatics said:
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
What are the fixed costs of the operation?
What is NGC charging for the slabbing and packing of the boxes?
What are the marketing costs?
distribution costs?
etc.
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
I'm sure they didn't lose money, but it really doesn't matter if they did. The value just isn't there for the vast majority of buyers, due to what you said at the end of your post. People are either going to be willing to throw away hundreds of dollars for a tiny chance at a several thousand dollar score, or they won't.
@Project Numismatics said:
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
What are the fixed costs of the operation?
What is NGC charging for the slabbing and packing of the boxes?
What are the marketing costs?
distribution costs?
etc.
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
I think you’re getting a bit caught up in the semantics and in the weeds - it’s not quite that complicated.
We should be able to come up with good idea of the total retail value of the all the coins distributed vs. the total price charged for all the boxes. Was the total retail value of all the combined boxes significantly different than the total price charged for all boxes?
That will help answer the questions of whether the markup was fair or typical for the coin industry.
If VB paid too much to acquire the coins, slab or market them, then it’s on them - and doesn’t make excessive markups fair for the consumer.
Then there’s the question of the public statements they made concerning their markups.
No. The total retail was pretty close to the total price of the boxes. I think the math (from the other thread) showed a total retail value of over $500 per box against $595 price.
The complaint was less about the RETAIL markup and more about 1) the distribution (a few big winners against a lot of $300 retail boxes) and 2) whether NGC price guide retail was itself inflated.
But I would hardly call it unfair if I spend $100 to acquire an item and charged you $110 even if you think $50 is the true value.
Tide detergent has about $1 with of detergent in every $15 bottle. But they don't make $14 on it.
@jmlanzaf said:
Are they, though? I mean unique to VB.
Actually, it's not unique to VB. As another poster noted...
@jmlanzaf said:
We have threads all over this place where people are calling certain coins overvalued, complaining about getting blown out of the water at auction etc. We also have people happily showing off some of those same coins won at auction.
Yep.
@jmlanzaf said:
90+% of the value complaints are from people who didn't buy them. Duh. That's why they didn't buy them. The same thing is true of Mint products, old gold, silver eagles, etc. Almost by definition, anything you choose not to buy doesn't seem a reasonavle value to you.
Can't argue with that.
@jmlanzaf said:
I'm fine with people both finding value here and finding a lack of value in exactly the same place. I'm prone to let people just do what they want.
Even if they're doing it the wrong way?
I've always done it the "wrong way". But i think I actually have the most fun that way.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
They do it because they do make money. But they don't sell to coin people who have their own sources of material. They pay a premium in marketing to reach people who aren't reached by other methods. Obviously, they have a place and they do make money or they wouldn't do it.
I'm neither promoting nor condemning them. But the economics of it are simply different.
OK well overcharging in my hobby is disagreable to me and it should be to the entire.marketplace.
It gives the hobby a bad rep. The hobby has enough challenges, it shouldn't have to deal with an unforced issue of mass retailers stretching markups on modern coins.
@3stars said:
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
They do it because they do make money. But they don't sell to coin people who have their own sources of material. They pay a premium in marketing to reach people who aren't reached by other methods. Obviously, they have a place and they do make money or they wouldn't do it.
I'm neither promoting nor condemning them. But the economics of it are simply different.
OK well overcharging in my hobby is disagreable to me and it should be to the entire.marketplace.
It gives the hobby a bad rep. The hobby has enough challenges, it shouldn't have to deal with an unforced issue of mass retailers stretching markups on modern coins.
I think it's more complex than that. If I have higher costs and charge more as a result, is that overcharging? If so, you're going to have to start canceling the major coin shows. Is it overcharging if FedEx charges more to deliver to from NY to Alaska than NY to Chicago?
If you are getting (coin) product to people who otherwise wouldn't have it, is it not possibly worth the added cost?
I'm not saying that everything goes. There are BM and sore dealers that underpay or overcharge. But markets tend to be self correcting. If the TV people are staying in business it is because they are filling a need, even if they aren't the lowest cost supplier.
@Project Numismatics said:
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
What are the fixed costs of the operation?
What is NGC charging for the slabbing and packing of the boxes?
What are the marketing costs?
distribution costs?
etc.
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
I think you’re getting a bit caught up in the semantics and in the weeds - it’s not quite that complicated.
We should be able to come up with good idea of the total retail value of the all the coins distributed vs. the total price charged for all the boxes. Was the total retail value of all the combined boxes significantly different than the total price charged for all boxes?
That will help answer the questions of whether the markup was fair or typical for the coin industry.
If VB paid too much to acquire the coins, slab or market them, then it’s on them - and doesn’t make excessive markups fair for the consumer.
Then there’s the question of the public statements they made concerning their markups.
No. The total retail was pretty close to the total price of the boxes. I think the math (from the other thread) showed a total retail value of over $500 per box against $595 price.
The complaint was less about the RETAIL markup and more about 1) the distribution (a few big winners against a lot of $300 retail boxes) and 2) whether NGC price guide retail was itself inflated.
But I would hardly call it unfair if I spend $100 to acquire an item and charged you $110 even if you think $50 is the true value.
Tide detergent has about $1 with of detergent in every $15 bottle. But they don't make $14 on it.
Well, yeah. NGC Price Guide is BS unless people actually buy at those prices. VB indexing to an inflated guide to show over $500 in average value does nothing for the person selling the 2015 MS69 ASE to you for $49, including shipping.
What P&G makes on a bottle of Tide is irrelevant. What's relevant is Walmart selling it for $15 and a local store selling it for $25, because that's what the NGC Guide says it's worth. Its retail value is what you could readily buy it for -- $15, not $25, even though a BS Guide says otherwise. And that's even if P&G and Walmart are making $14.99 combined on it, and it only has $0.01 worth of soap in it. Unless you could go out and source the soap yourself for $0.01, Then that's all it's worth.
That's what happened here, with people unhappy with $300 worth of coins, and VB not understanding what the fuss is about, because their guide says they are worth $500, even though their buy backs are actually even less than the $300.
Except they DO understand, because they are promising to do better next time. They apparently didn't anticipate people not enjoying getting screwed, since their fanboys, who didn't actually buy, gushed about how great this would be for the hobby.
Nothing wrong with working "kinks" out at the expense of their customers. Unless it turns out that that process drives their customers away. Then they are going to be eating a ton of "salaries, benefits and other overhead."
@MasonG said:
Is it overcharging when the corner convenience store prices a gallon of milk higher than Walmart?
Not if you need it right there and then, and don't have the time or ability to make the trip to Walmart. Then, you are paying for convenience and immediate access. They are running a high overhead business, and providing a needed service. Same thing with a last minute plane ticket. That's not what this is.
Analogy doesn't work with things you buy on the internet. Amazon absolutely would be overcharging if they sold the milk for more than Walmart, both with home delivery. Which is why they are pretty careful not to. As is VB by selling 3 coins in a sealed box for around double what anyone can buy them for on eBay, or on any number of reputable dealer websites.
You don't need to convince anyone on this forum. You need to convince all the folks on reddit and YouTube who won't be coming back for more after their experience last time.
Comments
Actually, I think this could work in a different context. Again, borrowing from the sports card guys, imagine a limited edition slab that's salted in among regular slabs to entice slab collectors. Or imagine a curated set (commems?) where one coin in the set is scarcer. You could actually get people to try to assemble sets.
Idk. These are the things I wish we could discuss but it's just too much trouble. Maybe I'll call one of the NGCX guys and see if I could interest them in working with me.
I'd also love a mystery box of ancients.
I think these could be fun to create as well as collect.
Doesn't sound crazy. Especially if you are willing to work on smaller margins than the folks behind VB. And be far more transparent and fair with respect to distribution.
All kidding aside, what makes you think you are anywhere near big enough to get NGCX interested in you? There were hundreds of thousands of dollars behind VB Series 1, and Minshull has been a major player forever.
In addition, what makes you think VB doesn't have an exclusive on these with NGCX? They created it. I'd be shocked if they didn't tie up NGCX contractually to prevent them from being associated with whatever clones might spring up if VB turns out to have legs. If they were REALLY smart, they might even have a patent preventing anyone from doing anything similar with any grading service.
If you are serious, you might have better luck with our hosts. Again, assuming you are big enough to get them interested in working with you, and assuming they'd have any interest in being connected to anything like this.
...> @jmlanzaf said:
Agree with wanting to see mystery box of ancients.
There are dealers who sell mystery boxes where the retail value of each box is approximately equal to the price, but most seem to focus on material they can’t otherwise sell (e.g. mix of junk bin material, raw bullion, etc.).
I’d be in for a CAC mystery box too
Right. That describes most grab bags, which have been around forever.
This is different because it's a lottery with a significant upside, as well as a significant downside for a majority of purchasers. It isn't a grab bag or mystery box, and isn't marketed as such. Which is why fair, supervised distribution should be a component.
Just to be clear, I never stated that they were the same concept or that I support Vaultbox.
I am stating I may be interested in purchasing a high quality selection of ancients in a mystery box format. Or CAC material. Or something else that may catch my eye in the future.
I think there's a lot of ways to make the hobby box format work that would be fun for a lot of people. Certainly, some people will never be enticed to take part. But for those that want to have a little fun, this could be made very interesting...without the need for some kind of elaborate oversight.
I actually agree. But that would involve turning it into something it is not, e.g., a grab bag rather than a lottery.
Everyone winning, or at least breaking even, does not require oversight. Winners and losers, OTOH, does. Otherwise, greed and temptation ultimately becomes an issue.
To protect me from the Vault Box, what?
Wear a garbage bag, coveralls?
Thanks for the warnings.
At ease, soldier.
Edit: almost every post.
Beware the Vault Box. It will consume us all.
You guys are fun. Any of you ever watch the “ ole chopper “ on TV. Apparently not. 😂😂. He’s been selling “ evidence mystery boxes” for $79 for years. Bags or boxes. How about those rolls of cc Morgan’s. Your really missing alot. If anything, VB ripped off poor ole Chopper.
Have fun. 👍🏼
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
Yeah, it's not really a new concept. Even in numismatics, it used to be common for BM stores to have a grab bag wall. And hobby boxes are quite common in sports cards, as I've said 50 times. Lol.
I just appreciate someone doing some marketing and trying to broaden the base a little bit. Plus it's fun to have new slabs out there.
And i do think you could combine this with the registry set structure to create a fun little treasure hunt.
And there are a lot of fairly cheap sectors you could explore to create value: NCLT topical themes, clad commems, ancients, modern world, medieval Europe.
If i had more resources, I'd dive in with both feet and try to create some of these things.
This somehow seems relevant.
Tonight’s fight is unusual. Ready for some real excitement?
Tonight’s referee is
And with the betting odds even😂
Tonight’s match 🙃
In this corner @ NJCoin
And his opponent is……NJCoin!
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
I know exactly what you are talking about, and I have seen him while channel surfing late Saturday night.
To be fair to both VB and mystery boxes and grab bags everywhere, no, what Chopper is doing is not the same. I don't know what the hell his Fort Knox evidence bags are supposed to be, but the "original" Morgan bank rolls are simply the same scams you see all the time on eBay.
Legit mystery boxes are also widely sold on eBay, and they are the real deal, similar to what @jmlanzaf is describing. You don't know exactly what you are going to get, but you are promised more in retail value than what you pay, and they deliver exactly that, for those who like the thrill of opening a Cracker Jack box and don't want to get ripped off.
I hate to defend VB, but it's not the same as Chopper. VB did publish a list of coins, and I'm sure every coin on the list ended up somewhere. The implications about how it is impossible to know what's inside a sealed box, how VB is hardly making anything on the first series, and how the distribution is totally random are closer to what Chopper does. OTOH, Chopper is careful not to make any promises, but he strongly implies that he is selling something that he does not have. He never actually promises even one uncirculated 1889-CC will be in the roll.
One can almost say his buyers get what they deserve, because he is implying that he is selling $100K+ worth of coins for less than $2K. Anyone who thinks anyone would actually do that gets what they deserve, sophisticated or not. That's just pure greed and stupidity on the part of the buyers.
He does the same thing with Dan Carr overstrikes that he misrepresents as US Mint patterns. That's a closer call with respect to people getting what they deserve, because there is really no way for a casual viewer flipping channels to know that the overstrikes are not actually patterns. OTOH, his prices for the Carr pieces are not totally crazy. Certainly nowhere near $2K, so, there's that.
Will a union suit do?
I guess this thread is about U.S. coins.
Maybe we start talking about username changing again?
Maybe just post our honeydipper finds. Can’t really tell if those were coins or not.
I thought that they were coprolites at first.
"Everyone winning, or at least breaking even"
Interesting business model - how does the company make any money if every box is worth what you paid for it or more? Hard to recover costs for things like packaging, distribution, labor, etc?
Tell us about voodoo again, doctor.
Perhaps they are valuing the box retail and paying wholesale? Just a guess. 🧐
🎶 shout shout, let it all out 🎶
They make it up in volume.
Retail, not wholesale. That's how all businesses operate. People don't usually buy anything willingly at an excess of its market price. That includes grab bags of coins. Sellers usually sell them at a slight discount to the market, the same way any company sells distressed merchandise at a discount, or just makes money by running "sales."
Packaging, distribution, labor, etc. are all overhead that is built into the retail price. If you cannot make money selling at the market after taking those costs into account, then you don't have a viable business. Probably the reason a lot of Mom and Pop stores go out of business after Walmart blows into a small town.
The grab bag sellers on eBay don't have big overhead to take into account, and they do just fine doing exactly what I described. If VB cannot make money selling at retail, OR convince buyers that its bullion is worth a premium to retail due to its packaging, distribution, labor, etc., then it, too, won't have much of a long term future.
Some folks here are working overtime to convince everyone else that the lottery ticket embedded into the VB is worth a premium to the expected value of the ticket. Time will tell whether or not the market agrees. I certainly do not.
The other way to get people to pay above market, to take increased selling costs into account, is to sell to people who do not know what the market is. That's the business model of the folks selling on TV at 100%+ markups to retail.
But that is not how VB is selling, or who it is selling to, so I don't see how that's a long term strategy for success. It's definitely true that I could be wrong, and that knowledgeable people are indeed willing to pay a premium to expected retail value for the thrill of the box break. Time will tell.
For the record though, with all the back and forth, I haven't seen a single knowledgeable person here say "sounds good, sign me up" to pay a premium to expected value for a VB, other than those who dabbled in the beginning to test the waters. And none of them has indicated a desire to go back for seconds.
Is that because they are all afraid to get criticized by me? Maybe, but that hasn't stopped a lot of other folks from pushing back, hard, on my posts, so I really don't think that explains the lack of enthusiasm here to actually buy the product. As opposed to a ton of enthusiasm to discuss, debate and promote it.
You are only going to make that work with large distribution numbers of widgets. You can come close but box creation, slabbing, marketing, distribution, etc. add costs.
And what's my incentive to "break even"? The reason people buy hobby boxes is, in part, for the chance to get something special. If I'm going to spend $100 for $100 worth of coins, why wouldn't I just pick them individually?
I need there to either be prize coins or have the slab value of the special slab make the coin worth more than in a generic slab.
There are ways to make it work with less expensive prizes, but there still has to be a prize worth winning.
Would you buy a lottery ticket if the payoff for your $ was guaranteed to be between 95 cents and $1.05?
Good luck with explaining it. Again. Maybe it'll make a dent this time.
Yes. This is exactly what grab bag buyers do. It might not be for you, and that's fine. But some people just like the thrill of the unknown, and the ability to get "a deal" by getting a bunch of coins for something below retail.
You want to play the lottery, and that's fine too. It's just not that attractive to a lot of coin collectors, who are by nature kind of conservative. Which is why the product is receiving the reception it is here, despite the spirited posts back and forth.
In addition, there is "breaking even" and then there is "breaking even." Buying a piece of a pool of 2,400 coins, with an aggregate retail value of $480,000, for a collective $480,000, would be "breaking even," even if your $600 box only contained $400 worth of coins, because someone else in the pool would be capturing that $200, by definition. You can still win a prize without getting screwed by playing, depending on how the box is priced and distributed. And VB should be able to make money at that price, since typical retail markups on nearly $500K worth of modern graded coins should cover all their costs, plus a reasonable profit.
Now, if you, and a lot of other people, are willing to assign a value of $200 to simply the possibility of scoring a prize, then, yes, they should only place an aggregate of $320,000 worth of coins in those 800 boxes, and should place the $160,000 premium you and everyone else is willing to pay directly into their pocket.
So far, though, while you speak glowingly of what you "need" to make it interesting to you, you have only shown a willingness to buy a coin already pulled from a box at a huge haircut to what the initial buyer paid. So it's fair to take your musings about how boxes should be priced and sold with a hefty grain of salt. I happen to think the product would be a lot more interesting if it was priced more in line with the market value of what was inside, in the aggregate, including the value of the prizes, and if distribution of the prizes was supervised by an independent third party. YMMV.
Doubt it.
Grab bags don't have big winners, but they have winners. I've never seen a grab bag that didn't have a prize coin. Apparently, we're going to pick nits over the size of the prize.
I think you could make it work with sets where one coin is shorted so there's a limited number of sets possible. But even though the "coin value" isn't higher, you've created slab value. [Think hologram or prism cards or autographs.] But whether the extra value is intrinsic or imputed, it has to be there, especially when you consider that you have marketing/distribution costs. That's why TV coins have to be priced higher, even if the hawker isn't making much money. They can't even break even on a 10% bid/ask spread.
You seem to have made some widespread conclusions based off seeing only a handful of box opening videos (less than 1% of the total sold!), and by user comments (or lack of them) here.
You do realize that many people have zero interest in taking part in threads like this simply because of the exhaustive, childish banter present, right? Also, maybe people who had fun with their VB just don’t see any value in sharing that information. Finally, the LARGE majority of the coin collecting population does not participate in this (or maybe) any online forum.
I Just can’t see how you were (as you said) vindicated by the results of the first series of VB. Your sample size is incredibly small.
US and British coin collector, and creator of The Ultimate Chuck E. Cheese's and Showbiz Pizza Place Token & Ticket Guide
Whoever attempts something like this is going to have to deal with their idea being met with disapproval from anonymous message board posters. A huge hurdle to clear, no doubt.
I'll meet you halfway, because you make some fair points. If VB is actually creating value with their slabs, they have a right to capture some of it, just like TPGs do by charging dealers different prices for 70s than 69s, or pricing some services at a percent of the value of the coin.
OTOH, any premium attached to VB slabs is speculative, at best, at this point in time. And you should really be the last person making the argument, given how you have shown no willingness to pay a premium, and openly bragged about stripping any possible premium away from what you paid for your first VB "score."
The simple fact is that a few early sellers on eBay were able to get a premium for VB pulls, but many other coins are languishing on eBay with no takers at the premiums sought. In addition, VB itself is not establishing a premium in its buy back offers, so it truly is unclear if there is ever going to be a premium attached to the slabs themselves.
Whether so-called "limited editions," beyond the limited edition that the slabs themselves already represent, will attract any interest, only time will tell. But that seems very doubtful. The only place I have ever seen that is on TV, where the target market is folks who have no idea what they are doing. There is no established premium secondary market for any "limited edition" slab sold on TV, so I'm not sure where the buyers are going to come from for whatever a hologram or prism VB slab equivalent would be.
True, true, true. The sample size is small, but so is the population (800 max, less however many people bought 2). Between here, YouTube and reddit, I'm pretty comfortable with my conclusions.
I went out on limb before the first boxes were released, and all of my concerns were actualized through first hand observation and second hand reports. I'm now doing it again.
I think there will be a fast sell out, with a lot more boxes showing up on eBay than the first time around. A few lucky early sellers will do well, and everyone else won't. I honestly have no way to know whether the selling price will ever dip below the issue price, but, I think the excitement will be over once people see there is no easy quick flip, because there is no organic demand to pay even $600 to open a box with an average value of around $400-500 worth of coins, including the home runs, and with the vast majority of boxes being worth far less than that.
I also don't think people have stars in their eyes about hitting home runs any longer after seeing how Series 1 played out. Whether people respond to whatever fixes VB offers also remains to be seen, or whether it turns out to be true that they only had one opportunity to make a first impression.
Yup. It's humbling to realize the amount of power and influence I have apparently amassed in such a short period of time, at least in your eyes, simply by posting here.
Then they shouldn't do the TV or this if it's too expensive, they should do something else.
People who know food scream and holler when bananas are .50 a pound more at Whole Foods. But here, not so much....yet they are getting hosed for $50, $100 from the TV or here. Why.... because they don't know any better.....yet.
Maybe they should do these on TV, then they can get the little old lady down the street.
Don't underestimate the modern coin collector, they will figure out when the values don't relate to actual retail.
There is a debate here over exactly what VB’s gross margin and net margin were. And whether their profit margin was “fair” particularly with respect to how they marketed their product.
Regardless of how a mystery box is constructed - that is, whether each box is worth the same or whether it’s designed as a lottery, the debate of an appropriate margin remains. Either design could be executed with either a fair or grossly unfair markup.
They do it because they do make money. But they don't sell to coin people who have their own sources of material. They pay a premium in marketing to reach people who aren't reached by other methods. Obviously, they have a place and they do make money or they wouldn't do it.
I'm neither promoting nor condemning them. But the economics of it are simply different.
Actually, the debate over that has been minimal largely because we have no idea about anything but the cost of the boxes. They could have lost money for all we know.
The only value debate has been over retail/wholesale price of comparable coins, but that really doesn't tell us anything. We just don't know enough:
Looking at a 69 silver eagle with a $35 "street value" doesn't mean that the acquisition and packaging cost for that coin isn't $60. Of course, you also don't have to care. If I spend $35 to put a $25 coin in a PCGS slab, I've still only have a $25 coin.
Then why are people complaining about the value (or, more accurately, perceived lack thereof)?
Maybe for the first time, I am going to 1,000,000% agree with you. TV telemarketers do have a place. Just not for us. Their distribution costs are off the charts, but they have a viable business because they sell to people who are unaware of true retail value.
The question then becomes whether people who do know true value will be a market for VB, in return for the thrill of the lottery.
@fathom is spot on, and you are dead wrong, if your assertion is that VB is not making "excess" profits due to an abnormally high cost of distribution. If that is, in fact, the case (and I seriously doubt that it is), then it is doomed to fail.
Unless, as @fathom correctly asserts, they can develop a market among people who do not know value. Because what they are selling is common.
While you speculate about them possibly turning the common into the uncommon through slab gimmicks, you yourself have shown yourself to be immune to that through your "score." So just who among us do you think would actually fall for it? Card collectors? So far, there is scant evidence that they became coin collectors through this, just because the coins came in a sealed box similar to card hobby boxes.
Because I guess you are right, if you are thinking that card collectors could get sucked in like anyone watching HSN, insofar as both sets of customers are ignorant as to true value. The question then would become whether you would think that would be any better for the hobby than everyone selling overpriced crap on TV?
All of your posts suggest this would be different. Sorry, but I don't see how selling to people at inflated prices helps anyone other than the person who made the sale. As @fathom again stated, having inflated selling costs really just suggests that the seller should find another way to make a living, because it is usually unsustainable, due to market competition.
Home shopping on TV seems to be an exception to that rule. So @fathom is right yet again. Maybe the market for these is on TV, where value has a very tenuous relationship to selling price. Selling on the internet is the exact opposite, due to the availability of a ton of information.
All the public evidence suggests the majority of people participating in Series 1 were existing coin collectors. And that the majority of them, roughly corresponding to the published odds of receiving a "losing" box, were dissatisfied with their experience, because they apparently did not place a value on the thrill of breaking the seal anywhere near the delta between what they paid and what they received in value from the coins themselves.
Are they, though? I mean unique to VB. We have threads all over this place where people are calling certain coins overvalued, complaining about getting blown out of the water at auction etc. We also have people happily showing off some of those same coins won at auction.
90+% of the value complaints are from people who didn't buy them. Duh. That's why they didn't buy them. The same thing is true of Mint products, old gold, silver eagles, etc. Almost by definition, anything you choose not to buy doesn't seem a reasonavle value to you.
I'm fine with people both finding value here and finding a lack of value in exactly the same place. I'm prone to let people just do what they want.
I think you’re getting a bit caught up in the semantics and in the weeds - it’s not quite that complicated.
We should be able to come up with good idea of the total retail value of the all the coins distributed vs. the total price charged for all the boxes. Was the total retail value of all the combined boxes significantly different than the total price charged for all boxes?
That will help answer the questions of whether the markup was fair or typical for the coin industry.
If VB paid too much to acquire the coins, slab or market them, then it’s on them - and doesn’t make excessive markups fair for the consumer.
Then there’s the question of the public statements they made concerning their markups.
FWIW, it's almost impossible for VB to have made money on the first offering. Just staff salaries and benefits for those first 3 ir 4 months of operation leading to the first release are likely close to the total sales of $480,000.
Actually, it's not unique to VB. As another poster noted...
Yep.
Can't argue with that.
Even if they're doing it the wrong way?
I'm sure they didn't lose money, but it really doesn't matter if they did. The value just isn't there for the vast majority of buyers, due to what you said at the end of your post. People are either going to be willing to throw away hundreds of dollars for a tiny chance at a several thousand dollar score, or they won't.
No. The total retail was pretty close to the total price of the boxes. I think the math (from the other thread) showed a total retail value of over $500 per box against $595 price.
The complaint was less about the RETAIL markup and more about 1) the distribution (a few big winners against a lot of $300 retail boxes) and 2) whether NGC price guide retail was itself inflated.
But I would hardly call it unfair if I spend $100 to acquire an item and charged you $110 even if you think $50 is the true value.
Tide detergent has about $1 with of detergent in every $15 bottle. But they don't make $14 on it.
I've always done it the "wrong way". But i think I actually have the most fun that way.
OK well overcharging in my hobby is disagreable to me and it should be to the entire.marketplace.
It gives the hobby a bad rep. The hobby has enough challenges, it shouldn't have to deal with an unforced issue of mass retailers stretching markups on modern coins.
Is it overcharging when the corner convenience store prices a gallon of milk higher than Walmart?
I think it's more complex than that. If I have higher costs and charge more as a result, is that overcharging? If so, you're going to have to start canceling the major coin shows. Is it overcharging if FedEx charges more to deliver to from NY to Alaska than NY to Chicago?
If you are getting (coin) product to people who otherwise wouldn't have it, is it not possibly worth the added cost?
I'm not saying that everything goes. There are BM and sore dealers that underpay or overcharge. But markets tend to be self correcting. If the TV people are staying in business it is because they are filling a need, even if they aren't the lowest cost supplier.
Well, yeah. NGC Price Guide is BS unless people actually buy at those prices. VB indexing to an inflated guide to show over $500 in average value does nothing for the person selling the 2015 MS69 ASE to you for $49, including shipping.
What P&G makes on a bottle of Tide is irrelevant. What's relevant is Walmart selling it for $15 and a local store selling it for $25, because that's what the NGC Guide says it's worth. Its retail value is what you could readily buy it for -- $15, not $25, even though a BS Guide says otherwise. And that's even if P&G and Walmart are making $14.99 combined on it, and it only has $0.01 worth of soap in it. Unless you could go out and source the soap yourself for $0.01, Then that's all it's worth.
That's what happened here, with people unhappy with $300 worth of coins, and VB not understanding what the fuss is about, because their guide says they are worth $500, even though their buy backs are actually even less than the $300.
Except they DO understand, because they are promising to do better next time. They apparently didn't anticipate people not enjoying getting screwed, since their fanboys, who didn't actually buy, gushed about how great this would be for the hobby.
Nothing wrong with working "kinks" out at the expense of their customers. Unless it turns out that that process drives their customers away. Then they are going to be eating a ton of "salaries, benefits and other overhead."
Not if you need it right there and then, and don't have the time or ability to make the trip to Walmart. Then, you are paying for convenience and immediate access. They are running a high overhead business, and providing a needed service. Same thing with a last minute plane ticket. That's not what this is.
Analogy doesn't work with things you buy on the internet. Amazon absolutely would be overcharging if they sold the milk for more than Walmart, both with home delivery. Which is why they are pretty careful not to. As is VB by selling 3 coins in a sealed box for around double what anyone can buy them for on eBay, or on any number of reputable dealer websites.
You don't need to convince anyone on this forum. You need to convince all the folks on reddit and YouTube who won't be coming back for more after their experience last time.
How dare the convenience store pass along their higher cost basis to their customers.