At current market prices of the VB slabs, the actual market value is above cost. VB slabs are selling for far more then the generic NGC 69s that I used in the spreadsheet.
You're playing Whack-A-Mole. You could demonstrate value to everyone's satisfaction and it'll just end up being something else next. Some people have concluded that VaultBox is bad and they're working their way back from that.
I know, which is why I didn't do the other 1700 coins. I'm quite confident in the valuations. I don't see any point in trying to justify it to the naysayers just so I get called a shill...again.
@jmlanzaf said:
I did some research - even though no one cares. I took the bottom end coins, the 9.9 Mint State ASE's and summed the NGC price guide and looked at median eBay sale prices. These coins are the cheapest ones in the boxes and represent a total of 700 coins (out of 2400 total).
The total NGC price guide for the 35 different ASE's was $2225. The total median eBay sales price for the same coins was $1701. That is 76% of the NGC price guide. Since the Coinweek article was using 80% of the guide price @Project Numismatics said:
@jmlanzaf - Follow the 80/20 rule - focus your analysis on the small number of high value coins that comprise most of the total VB value. If that supports your thesis, no need to spend so much time looking at all the low value coins.
Edited to add that in your analysis above, you need to weight the coins to their representation in the vault boxes. 1701 to 2225 isn’t correct if they don’t all show up equally.
They do so show up equally which is why I did the analysis that way. There's 20 of each.
The value of the higher value coins was less likely to be inflated, in my opinion. In fact, the coins shown represent 30% of all coins in the boxes and almost 10% of the value. There is little argument over the $40,000 valuation of the trophy coins, so that is another 10% of the valuation. The proof Eagles are about 70% of NGC guide on ebay which is roughly soothe 10% of total valuation. I'm quite confident that the Coinweekb article is in the ballpark and the total value of the coins is $400k+ against a risk price of $480k. But my doing my work is not going to prevent people from continuing to make up numbers and lying about the valuation.
The analysis was done before by Coinweek as well as a couple of forum members. I really don't feel the need to justify it to you or anyone else. If you care, you can do the math yourself. The NGC price guide, eBay, and the list of VB contents are all publicly available.
The flaw in your analysis is that you only looked at 10% of the total value. You don’t have to justify it, but it lacks credibility if you ignore 90% of the value.
I’m just looking for the numbers - which coinworld didn’t provide either - they made an 80% of guide assumption, but without data, it’s just an assumption.
It doesn’t matter to me what the end result is, but I am legitimately curious what the expected value of a vaultbox is and I haven’t seen any calculation based on what the coins can actually be sold for.
As I said, you can do the work.
At current market prices of the VB slabs, the actual market value is above cost. VB slabs are selling for far more then the generic NGC 69s that I used in the spreadsheet.
Except the one you happened to buy. And except every one VB is buying back.
Maybe that's the actual market value, not what a few anxious folks might have paid in the beginning.
Just how "far more THAN the generic NGC 69 that you used in the spreadsheet" did you pay for your precious 2015 ASE, or does VB pay to buy any of these coins back?
This ^^^^. Now, it's true that VB's Instant Offers are supposed to be wholesale, but it's also clearly true that they are not trying to create a premium wholesale market for their product with their offers. Because, if they are, that's a pretty effing huge bid/ask spread for modern, common items. It follows that a premium retail market is unlikely to develop, as evidenced by the fact that those coins simply are not selling at their inflated asking prices.
What's crazy is that @jmlanzaf is shilling for the prospect of these slabs conferring a premium, and using that as a justification to support inflated box values, while he himself patiently waited a few weeks and then bragged about bagging a common example at regular retail. No premium. Do as I say, not as I do. Coinweek. Sure.
2006W $50 69 - NGC price guide $675. $600 is 92.5%
2012W $25 70 - NGC guide is $1300. $1225 is 94%
2006W $50 gold proof 70. NGC guide is $2650. $2350 is 88.7%
2021 Type 2 1/10 70. NGC guide is $325. $225 is 69.2%
2021 Type 1 $5 70. NGC guide is $325. $225 is 69.2%.
Still looks like we're trending at 80% of NGC value guide which creates a total VB coin value of over 90% of the total purchase price.
@NJCoin said:
Now, it's true that VB's Instant Offers are supposed to be wholesale, but it's also clearly true that they are not trying to create a premium wholesale market for their product with their offers. Because, if they are, that's a pretty effing huge bid/ask spread for modern, common items. It follows that a premium retail market is unlikely to develop, as evidenced by the fact that those coins simply are not selling at their inflated asking prices.
They can't - although the red core may be unique to VB, the basic graded bullion is not.
From NGC's perspective, VaultBox - whatever discount they cut them - is just a way to get NGCX coins into the resale market. From there, we'll figure out if there is demand or if the vast majority of collectors don't care.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@NJCoin said:
Now, it's true that VB's Instant Offers are supposed to be wholesale, but it's also clearly true that they are not trying to create a premium wholesale market for their product with their offers. Because, if they are, that's a pretty effing huge bid/ask spread for modern, common items. It follows that a premium retail market is unlikely to develop, as evidenced by the fact that those coins simply are not selling at their inflated asking prices.
They can't - although the red core may be unique to VB, the basic graded bullion is not.
From NGC's perspective, VaultBox - whatever discount they cut them - is just a way to get NGCX coins into the resale market. From there, we'll figure out if there is demand or if the vast majority of collectors don't care.
Can't what? If what @jmlanzaf was saying was true, VB could support the secondary market by paying premium prices through their Instant Offers. They don't. They can make an unlimited number by sending raw coins to NGCX, so they don't pay more than normal wholesale.
While @jmlanzaf has been talking up the prospect of these slabs being premium items, they really aren't. VB sure sells them at a premium, but does not support the secondary market by paying premiums on buybacks. The market has figured that out. People speculated and seemed to pay premiums soon after release, but that seems to have calmed down now.
But is that 80% of catalog? Inquiring minds want to know...
I wish to God that I knew.
Regular NGC boxes seem to sell for $15-$20 at the low end of eBay prices and can hold 20 coins. VaultBox boxes hold about half of that, and one sold for $35.
Comments
I know, which is why I didn't do the other 1700 coins. I'm quite confident in the valuations. I don't see any point in trying to justify it to the naysayers just so I get called a shill...again.
Except the one you happened to buy. And except every one VB is buying back.
Maybe that's the actual market value, not what a few anxious folks might have paid in the beginning.
Just how "far more THAN the generic NGC 69 that you used in the spreadsheet" did you pay for your precious 2015 ASE, or does VB pay to buy any of these coins back?
eBay listings & VaultBox Instant Offer as of 2023-03-07 2pm US/Central
https://www.ebay.com/itm/385451830319 - 2021 Eagle G$5, 6267957-100 grade 10
BIN $395 VaultBox Instant offer $225
https://www.ebay.com/itm/285152948335 - 2021 Type 2 Gole 1/10 Oz G$5, 6297957-095, grade 10
BIN $399 VaultBox Instant Offer $225
https://www.ebay.com/itm/374482729348 - 2006W Gold 1oz $50 Eagle - 3288274-006, grade 10
BIN $3999.99 VaultBox Instant Offer $2350
https://www.ebay.com/itm/134470972301 - 2012W Proof $25 Eagle - 3269313-025, grade 10
BIN $1999.87 VaultBox Instant Offer $1225
https://www.ebay.com/itm/255974389992 - 2006 $50 Platinum Eagle - 1856808-040, grade 9.9
BIN $1095 VaultBox Instant Offer $600
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
This ^^^^. Now, it's true that VB's Instant Offers are supposed to be wholesale, but it's also clearly true that they are not trying to create a premium wholesale market for their product with their offers. Because, if they are, that's a pretty effing huge bid/ask spread for modern, common items. It follows that a premium retail market is unlikely to develop, as evidenced by the fact that those coins simply are not selling at their inflated asking prices.
What's crazy is that @jmlanzaf is shilling for the prospect of these slabs conferring a premium, and using that as a justification to support inflated box values, while he himself patiently waited a few weeks and then bragged about bagging a common example at regular retail. No premium. Do as I say, not as I do. Coinweek. Sure.
2006W $50 69 - NGC price guide $675. $600 is 92.5%
2012W $25 70 - NGC guide is $1300. $1225 is 94%
2006W $50 gold proof 70. NGC guide is $2650. $2350 is 88.7%
2021 Type 2 1/10 70. NGC guide is $325. $225 is 69.2%
2021 Type 1 $5 70. NGC guide is $325. $225 is 69.2%.
Still looks like we're trending at 80% of NGC value guide which creates a total VB coin value of over 90% of the total purchase price.
They can't - although the red core may be unique to VB, the basic graded bullion is not.
From NGC's perspective, VaultBox - whatever discount they cut them - is just a way to get NGCX coins into the resale market. From there, we'll figure out if there is demand or if the vast majority of collectors don't care.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
3 most recent sales on eBay (from most recent back)
An empty box sold for $35.
Can't what? If what @jmlanzaf was saying was true, VB could support the secondary market by paying premium prices through their Instant Offers. They don't. They can make an unlimited number by sending raw coins to NGCX, so they don't pay more than normal wholesale.
While @jmlanzaf has been talking up the prospect of these slabs being premium items, they really aren't. VB sure sells them at a premium, but does not support the secondary market by paying premiums on buybacks. The market has figured that out. People speculated and seemed to pay premiums soon after release, but that seems to have calmed down now.
But is that 80% of catalog? Inquiring minds want to know...
I wish to God that I knew.
Regular NGC boxes seem to sell for $15-$20 at the low end of eBay prices and can hold 20 coins. VaultBox boxes hold about half of that, and one sold for $35.
Hmmm...
TTT
so what did we decide about this?