This market is not so great
PTVETTER
Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭✭✭
I have heard from many dealers that this market is one the worst in years.
Not only is it down but has lasted longer than expected.
Shows are down in dealer and public attendance.
Looks like only the strong will survive?
Your thoughs??
Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211
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I'm glad its just a hobby for myself. And its good from a buyers perspective, I guess. My few eBay items have been doing ok, buts it mostly just modern stuff that has a larger audience.
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A number of dealers at the recent Long Beach show who are on the higher end of the food chain seem to think they can get full retail for their coins. I don't even look at the coins offered by these dealers.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Not even close to being real bad. When I see dealers offering guaranteed buybacks when they sell coins or if I see prices dropping much more than they have, then I will agree.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
In my opinion, its been down for several years. Plus grading and a greater pop increase in higher grades is part of the blame. I am selling coins at least 1/3 less of what I paid for them before 2006. So something in the market is not like it was.
WS
If NOTHING is coming is having what you got one has to get all they can and another one may not come along for a while.
However common coins are still common !
I think if some of the dealers sitting on inventory would lower prices, they might actually see an uptick in business. Someone on the precious metals forum said a large wholesaler had over 7,000 $20 Gold coins in stock and over 40,000 generic silver dollars as well with few buyers.
I also see dealers with the same old inventory at the same old prices. Lower your prices, and get that inventory moving
Having fun in my arenas. Plenty of nice coins to find.
As a buyer - collector, I have yet to participate in this "down market." The prices are beyond the listed retail numbers for the coins on my want list, even the so-called common date.
I guess that Down market is fewer sales not always lower prices.
Quality collector coins are still in demand and at least holding their value.
It's a buyers' market for sure. We are in the trough of a market cycle. I see more polarization, too---meaning higher prices for better PQ stuff but very low prices for more generic lower grade items.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Trifurcation
The gold might be in low demand due to being tax time OR some might see the stock market as a better place to put money now.
Good point on the stock market.
Google search on Trifurcation definition is trending
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Good coins are selling for good prices
I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
not true at all. you have the eliasberg guy out there-he is the equivalent of 50 big birds, didn't you just see what the Goldberg copper sale did-or the heritage FUN Sale??? watch the pogue sale-if the coins are nice, then they will sell crazy as will blue moon coins.
yes, last year was very bad. this year not so. look for people to sell stocks and move some $ into coins. happens every time the stock market is overheated
Even some slightly above average coins.
Stock market at an all time high. Not sure I would be putting a lot of new money to work there.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
All my opinions:
I am collecting CC morgans and pre 1933 gold for type sets in last 3 years. I feel the dealers are overpriced by a good 10%+. The best price is found at HA or other auctions. The prices of mid range MS gold coins are little down, not to the level I want it to be though.
Most older collectors are not in buying mode, the hobby is having an age problem, with not enough millenials to support the prices.
The two sectors that are doing well (probaby a little appreciation) is top PQ coins and silver bullion.
I am schocked to see so many youtube videos with young people stacking silver by whatever means. It funny and sad to see these younger folks are buying skull shaped 5oz silver as investment! Not the taste of a numismatist.
Anyways, I am 32 and not looking at selling anytime sooon, by god's grace. I am looking at a 25 year horizon. Any predictions who will be in the market to buy my MS 63 gold coins?
I think 80% or more of the best coins are now off the market and in strong hands, and won't come back until the owners can get a decent return on them. The problem is that auctions are selling a lot of crap, resulting in lower prices realized, which are then reflected in the price guides. So the market looks like it's going down, but PQ coins are not available at listed prices.
Buy high, sell higher.
Most older collectors are not in buying mode, the hobby is having an age problem, with not enough millenials to support the prices.
NOT TRUE AT ALL
I'll second that. If 75% of the hobby is made of people over 60, then something is going to change, and relatively fast. It HAS to.
Certain segments of collecting are continuing to do extremely well.
How much of the down market is due to the economy, changing hobby habits and gradeflation?
There are two coin markets. One is the value coins generate when buying is earmarked for registry points. The other is for many collectors who could care less about the registry but yet are faced with the high dollar registry coins. And so, when dealers paid dearly for those registry coins they were likely expecting more registry participants but not everyone can be at the top. It's for a very small elite group who can sink hundreds of thousands into those top sets. And everyone else is stuck with overinflated prices for their coins. The hobby has become stagnant due to the greed over registry points and not everyone is playing. The hobby has become a web tunnel as the spider awaits for the wary fly.
Leo
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
I don't think that the market is as bad as stated. In fact I think that so far this year it has improved over last year. As others have stated there are several factors that go into the activity of the market. As for our sales this year so far they are ahead by 25% over this time last year. There are several factors that account for this also. I have been very active making new purchases and fulfilling customer want lists. I have been increasing my available inventory and I tossed a couple bad shows for a couple better ones to try and help improve sales as well. I also try to price my inventory to move and not be a traveling museum. Don't get me wrong there have been a few coins that I have sold at a loss because prices have adjusted down. I am okay with doing damage control and just moving on from a loss so I can take those funds and put it in something else. My first concern is turnover and not letting my inventory go stale. I can say that I have even been successful selling problem coins as much as I despise having them in my inventory. All in all I think that things are getting better than what they were.
I see many dealers that do not do these things or do not do them well for whatever reason. I see it many times a dealer is has "x" item for sale and they have had the item for so long that the price has drastically changed and they are still unwilling to take the loss to an interested buyer and just move on to something new. Prices may have came down on many different items but if you buy them right, what is the problem.
Just wanted to share my observations and experiences.
I think that the coin market of old is gone and never will return. The coin market has (at least) three layers:
The true rarities, the trophy coins--like 1794 dollars, chain cents in MS, Stellas, rare date proof gold, 1884/5 trade dollars, 1854-S QEs, etc., coins that are six figures and higher for the top 0.1% to 1% of collectors. These coins (and usually these collectors) never see the light of day until a hedge fund blows up, a private plane crashes, or a centenarian gazillionaire collector decides to move on.
The upper middle to upper tier coins, in the mid-four figures to $100,000 range, for the discerning, passionate collector, to appreciate, study, and share among friends. Branch mint gold, better date/grade type, wildly toned Morgans and commems, EAC low condition census half and large cents, registry quality Mercs, SLQs, and Walkers, etc. These coins are in the wheelhouse of many of the people who visit this forum.
The rest--coins in the free/pocket change/melt to low four figures--comprise the largest swath of the numismatic landscape-- bank roll searchers, blah Morgans, modern mint du jour offerings, hoards, your grandparents' collections, typical Morgans, circulated common type coin collectors, THREE CENT SILVERs
, average/circ Morgans, Whitman folder coins, worn flat Barbers, nothing special GSA Morgans, etc. This is the stuff that is easy to buy and hard to sell.
You can adjust the breakpoints and descriptions, but you cannot deny the existence of the Trifurcated Coin Market.
I was researching pricing on seated liberty half dollars on Ebay...... talk about a dead market
The registry challenges you and makes you look for the best coins.
I feel its more like whoever can drop 100s of thousands $ in coins can be top in the registry. Except for true rarities.
It sort of a game to show off wealth to some extent. Because as long as you can pay, you can be at the top.
Not sure if that many people have that much dough to drop.
How many people fund this hobby before funding their retirement accounts?
Prices in the sample market are rising.
But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.
Soon to be followed by Quadfurcation.
1990-1996 was the previous longest bear market of my collecting lifetime. The bear market of 2009-2017 has now exceeded that in time. I do remember some dealers in the 1990-1996 bear that were offering guaranteed 90% buy backs of anything they sold. Of course that is unsustainable if the market keeps moving lower. While I haven't seen that this time around, it's not a requirement of an extended bear market. If you look at the PCGS CU3000 index, the overall coin market has been moving lower since 1989. One by one, sectors are reaching extreme peaks, then dropping by the wayside.
Great coins were decimated in the 1990-1996 bear market, many falling by 50-75%. Almost nothing was excluded. Though I'd imagine the drop in prices of great rarities were somewhat tempered.
Are you referring to auction data? Have you ever wondered if you were bidding against the potted plant in the back of the auction hall (i.e. a house bid)? Of course early federal coinage is one of the few strong segments in this market.
spit take
I'm sure they are Mr Hunt
M
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Actually I have heard these words spoken many times recently with my own ears , " I'm not selling into this weak market". I'm not sure how else to interpret it.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
That depends on the coin IMO. Everything I have would probably fall under that. I expect most of what TDN has is likely impervious to a weak market, but I could be wrong about that. I recently moved a couple items where I about broke even or made a little and a couple at a loss where no market was going to get me back above water.
That's an interesting point about being impervious to a weak market. There are two ways to be impervious:
A weak market may drive collectors out so strong hands may be the better reason for being impervious.
10k to 50k range. Some higher
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Yes it can be tuff on some but I'm having buying at a good price.
Hoard the keys.
I admit I'm not much of a player lately. I've paid up some for nice coins, but having trouble finding others to do the same when I sell.
You will not be lonely in this sentiment. I've found that buying the right material and selling at the right time to be the best recipe for success. One can only control the first part and then practice patience for the second. Example:
I sold my high grade near top pop rookie sportscard collection in two parts that I collected for 25 years. Part one I sold 4 years ago and basically broke even. I was not happy so I held back the second group until last year and sold it into a nuclear white hot market. Some cards increased in value 10X in a three year period. The market has since pulled back some.
Timing is an underrated part of collecting.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The strongest hands always tend to be the hard core collectors. The weak dealers, weak collectors, and specs get tossed out. The only ones left are strong dealer and strong collectors.
Weird thing is that the last 2 years on the Sunday I got home from a local show, I had emails wanting to buy coins I'd had up for sale for a long time. Another factor is how thin the market is for what you are selling.
I'm not sure it's universally bad. It seems kind of all over the place to me -- certain things are more expensive than they were some while back and very hard to locate, and other things are in a slow slide and available for anybody who will take them.
Since I do not sell coins, I cannot opine on the state of sales with experiential authority... however, based on show reports, it would seem the market is improving .... now, this might be isolated exuberance or faith based hype... however, it seems authentic. My purchases have not reflected a 'down' market... seems the coins I have bought have been typically priced. Cheers, RickO
The poor get genuine. The rich get bragging rights and a sticker
If it's the "potted plant," it's got an interesting collection going, because I have often not been the buyer. In a few cases I was not even close to being the buyer. The ending bid was just "nutty."
I think that the "potted plant" ran up the bid for two items that I did win. In one instance the auction house came back asking for more money than the closing bid at the sale because they missed a "snail mail bid." I paid them a bit more because the coin is very scarce and hard to find. I don't think that I'm "buried" into that one.
The bottom line was the auction house was not pleased with the price realized, and I had to pay for the "snail mail bid" that they placed on their own behalf. That's what I believe.
In the other instance, a phone bidder drove up the price of lot against men to a very high level. When I quite bidding they, withdrew their bid saying they didn't know they were going to so high. I ended up with the piece. I love the coin, once more a rare one, but I know I paid way too much.