I once watched a neighboring business owner liquidate by auction.
The auctioneer told him, "watch this" and proceeded to get one guy bidding against himself!!!
It was fairly easy.
Opened my eyes to "auctions."
The market is in the tank and has been for sometime. Retail sales have been very slow. It reminds me of the stagnant market that persisted for sometime after the 1989-90 crash. Currency is really bad it's only redeeming quality is its light to carry and makes my cases look good at shows.
I have no interest in increasing inventory beyond my plan number. At shows my best offer usually 80 pct CDN bid (assuming need item) beyond that no interest. On eBay I will not pay above 60-65 pct of what can sell for. Items I have sold this year almost 2x cost realized. A major NN advertiser marks up their vintage material 50 pct above CDN bid (scarce items may be above that) as they are not going to let it go for nothing. I carry a lot of similar items and refer to their price lists a lot.
Don't get buried in inventory and get good retail on what you can. Buying it right is where money is made.
I don't believe most people can afford coins over $300. Big ticket coins can be very risky.
Gold may be at a bottom leg with upside if investing I like PCGS 69 AGE, AGB. These are highly liquid on eBay.
I don't know about the US market, but the Canadian coin market has been in a major depression since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Any dealer telling you otherwise is shooting hot air through their you-know-what.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
What we are seeing is increased volatility as a result of decreased demand. Case in point I'm bidding on a coin now that is already 1.5x what it should sell for because me and some other person want it. Price will be higher because 2 people are in a bidding war.
Conversely I won a coin a few weeks ago for 60% why it should have sold for because I was the only person on that day who was interested. So lack of demand has been creating anomalistic pricing over the past 12 months. Prices are either resiclously high or criminally cheap...nothing in between for the stuff I collect.
If it is any way "ordinary" it is dead and it is not coming back to life. Collectibles of many kinds seem to be facing similar circumstances. I was recently discussing the antique market with a dealer. Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
The bargains I bought three or four years ago, purchased for prices where I could have sold for a small immediate profit at the time, are now burials where I would be lucky to break even.
Many young people struggling with student debt don't have money for coins period. The people that got burned when MS65 Dollars were around $1000 before the 89 crash never came back as have others who invested in big ticket 5000 coins they were later forced to sell at 50-60% of what they paid when forced to sell due to economic conditions.
I wish I could take advantage of this bad market. I am small potatoes, few of the coins I bid on are over the four hundred dollar mark. Still, I have had less than 6 successful bids in the last six months, ( out of around 70). Just about every time I find a coin I want the price goes 10 to 25 percent higher than I bid. If I make an internet comment about what I am bidding on, I am almost always told "That part of the market is doing OK". I have tried Proof Indian Head Cents, mid grade Seated Dollars, xf/au Seated coins, Capped Bust Half Dollars.
If the coin is strong for the grade no bargains exist. Final note though. If the coin market had to depend on my purchases, all coin dealers would be sleeping in cardboard boxes and buying their groceries at the food shelf. So weigh my words accordingly.
" If the coin market had to depend on my purchases, all coin dealers would be sleeping in cardboard boxes and buying their groceries at the food shelf. "
In some cases, that seems quite appropriate.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
A propos to young people, there is a minimalism movement, and people, in general and especially young people, want less stuff. Forget about selling your dining room furniture, armoire, fine china, etc. when you downsize, unless it is really, really special. In all likelihood, you will have to pay someone to take away that upright piano.
I am not sure to what extent this applies to coins, per se, if at all, but it's worth noting. Coins are small and can be a store of value (if not an outright investment/speculation/gamble/business).
@ricko said:
Since I do not sell coins, I cannot opine on the state of sales with experiential authority... however, based on show reports, it would seem the market is improving .... now, this might be isolated exuberance or faith based hype... however, it seems authentic. My purchases have not reflected a 'down' market... seems the coins I have bought have been typically priced. Cheers, RickO
IMO, you don't necessarily need to sell to get the pulse of the market. If you are looking to buy a coin that is hard to find because of demand then it stands to reason that that same coin should be easy to sell [if you had one] regardless of market conditions.
Chumley said seated halves were dead...I had an XF 90%+ complete set I put together in the 80's and had to sell. Last time I checked prices it would cost me 10X my original cost to put that set back together. I'll check, but I'm not hopeful that it's that dead.
@RYK said:
A propos to young people, there is a minimalism movement, and people, in general and especially young people, want less stuff. Forget about selling your dining room furniture, armoire, fine china, etc. when you downsize, unless it is really, really special. In all likelihood, you will have to pay someone to take away that upright piano.
I am not sure to what extent this applies to coins, per se, if at all, but it's worth noting. Coins are small and can be a store of value (if not an outright investment/speculation/gamble/business).
Maybe the minimalists could get all excited over 3c silvers and gold dollars.
I'll go away now.
@shorecoll said:
Chumley said seated halves were dead...I had an XF 90%+ complete set I put together in the 80's and had to sell. Last time I checked prices it would cost me 10X my original cost to put that set back together. I'll check, but I'm not hopeful that it's that dead.
Seated material was gang busters from around 1998-2008, and especially from 2002-2006. It caught up for a decade of sleeping before them. It hasn't been on fire since 2008....mostly stagnant or declining. A number of gem seated coins I owned in the mid-1980's are now up 10X what they were then. But they are far more precarious today than they were in 1986. A lot of great coins could be bought for $2K-$5K back then....and are now $20K-$50K coins today. But don't look for another 10X any time soon.
As a (mostly) outside obverse of the market, I have to say that it can't be a coincidence that the slowdown in the coin market occurred at the same time the recession hit, (generally stated as 2008 for both).
So, the question is: Is it the "new reality" for the coin market, or something we just need to get past? I think we'll know soon since the economy has now "fixed" most of it's problems, (unemployment, slumping stocks, failing home market, etc.), and may be on the way to heating up, (higher earnings, higher interest rates, at least SOME inflation, etc.)
If the coin market doesn't start showing life in a year or two, it's time to start thinking that maybe it's headed for a long term stagnation due to demographics, or some other real change. If it comes back, it was just a long business cycle....
@Cougar1978 said:
The people that got burned when MS65 Dollars were around $1000 before the 89 crash never came back as have others who invested in big ticket 5000 coins they were later forced to sell at 50-60% of what they paid when forced to sell due to economic conditions.
Find me a single person who paid $1,000 for a common date MS65 Morgan dollar in 1989. That's a lot of hype. The truth is not a single person paid $1,000 for a common MS65 blast white Morgan....therefore no one left the market and never came back. The slabbed coin market mania of 1989 brought common gem commems and type coins to absurd heights. Discuss that area if you want to pity the poor collector or investor of summer 1989. Also factor into your analysis that many of those coins were 1 grade, and sometimes 2 grades higher today.
Reality is that when PCGS first opened up in 1986 they had so few Morgan dollars slabbed that MS65 prices did start out around $600-$700 because their was no supply and strong demand. By 1988 they were bringing $350-$400. Maybe at the very market peak in summer 1989 they were somewhat higher to $400-$450. By end of 1989 they were down to $300 and stayed there to about April 1990.
$1,000 Morgans that collectors got stuck with? I don't think so. And if you kept those same nice $300 Morgans through today, odds would favor you having a MS66 which only a couple years ago were up in the $275-$325 range again. At their bottom in 2002/2003 I recall buying 60 or so pieces for $76/coin. Prices are variable....and opportunities always exist. During the silver run up in 2011 I recall MS65 Morgans reaching $225.
I was one of the original 31 dealers invited by
David to be an authorized PCGS dealer - before
anyone really had much of an idea of just how it would
change the coin market.
MS-65 Morgan's went crazy, and as mentioned, because they
were months behind in grading, AND everyone wanted some
type of product --- prices on those, and Walkers, for example,
also went nuts - but nothing like those round silver Morgans !
Retired Collector & Dealer in Major Mint Error Coins & Currency since the 1960's.Co-Author of Whitman's "100 Greatest U.S. Mint Error Coins", and the Error Coin Encyclopedia, Vols., III & IV. Retired Authenticator for Major Mint Errors for PCGS. A 49+-Year PNG Member...A full numismatist since 1972, retired in 2022
As I and others have stated earlier, 2008 was the start of the decline.
What happened next in Canada, must have happened in the US to some degree and that is.........
Here in Ontario Canada, From 2008 to 2011, coin shows were jam packed for three years, yet coins weren't selling.
Everyone was buying gold and mainly silver rounds, bars and ingots.
Canadian silver maple leafs wouldn't last 5 minutes in a dealer's showcase.
Then in 2011 the PM crash hit.
So in a span of 3 years (2008 to 2011) the Canadian coin collector got stung (and I mean 'badly' stung) TWICE!!
Given there has been no economic recovery since and there has also been an over supply of high grade material coming to auction and the still present 'hurt' of these two economics disasters, the market is extremely depressed.
I've always said for any chance of this market to get going again, PMs will have to at least reach their 2011 highs.
Then and only then will there be a lot more spending going on.
"Gold is money, and nothing else" (JP Morgan, 1912)
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
@shorecoll said:
Chumley said seated halves were dead...I had an XF 90%+ complete set I put together in the 80's and had to sell. Last time I checked prices it would cost me 10X my original cost to put that set back together. I'll check, but I'm not hopeful that it's that dead.
Seated material was gang busters from around 1998-2008, and especially from 2002-2006. It caught up for a decade of sleeping before them. It hasn't been on fire since 2008....mostly stagnant or declining. A number of gem seated coins I owned in the mid-1980's are now up 10X what they were then. But they are far more precarious today than they were in 1986. A lot of great coins could be bought for $2K-$5K back then....and are now $20K-$50K coins today. But don't look for another 10X any time soon.
Seated stuff seems to be taking a hit, but I've noticed a pronounces interest in Barber coinage, especially half dollars.
I would respectfully disagree with the OP. I don't think, by any means, that we are in a bull market, but we have bounced from the bottom and dealers are generally feeling positive about the overall market.
Good, interesting coins, fresh coins to market, etc are selling quickly when offered at current market levels. The key is selling at current levels as many prices have retreated over the past 3-5 years.
In some ways, this is both a buyer's market and seller's market. In 30+ years on the wholesale side of this market, I can tell you there's never a time when all dealers tell you things are great. But, today the mood-meter is fairly decent (maybe 4-7 on a 10 scale, depending on who you ask)
John Feigenbaum Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com) PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
Recently getting back into coins, I have to say that my observations are limited to the 20th century toned coin market on Ebay and Great Auctions. The prices people are asking for all toned coins is ridiculous. Even those coins that use to be described as original skin are now somehow "toned beauties."
Not all toning is equal, attractive or rainbow. Just because your coin isnt "white" doesnt mean its "toned" and therefore entitled to a premium.
And those coins that are true rainbows are being priced at extremely high levels.
I think this is where dealer to dealer sales hurt the market. Each dealer in that chain adds another 10-20% to the price he paid until the last person is buried. A dealer just cant get away with that with Grey Sheet coins.
Unfortunately, there is a "rainbow sheet" giving prices of toned coins.
I talked to a dealer the other day that paid $2000 for a common date MS64 toned Peace $. In no way shape of form was his coin a $2000 toned Peace $. But he bought it from another dealer that probably paid $1600 ($800 over its true value) and had to sit on it. Now this dealer is stuck with it unless he can find some poor sucker to pay him $2200.
I have seen huge pop increases in some material I collect. This has butchered the prices of these coins. I also do not like 80% of what I have seen in recently made coins for the grade. I recently passed on an all there 1896 Liberty Nickel in PC 6, at $6K. In late 2014, this was a $14,000 coin. I don't want to buy into this market.
"Vou invadir o Nordeste, "Seu cabra da peste, "Sou Mangueira......."
I don't know how the high grades are doing but the raw moderns and choice coins are fairly strong and still gaining momentum. The real strength is in foreign moderns. I went to a coin show for the first time in years and was amazed by the fact that all the good modern foreign was gone. I expected to see the coins that had gone up thousands of percent on tables at their new high prices but they weren't in evidence. There were a few exception in specialist stock but for the main part it wasn't out there at fifty cents and it's still not out there at $100.
Tokens and medals appear stronger than they had been as well.
Modern pulled classics out of the depths of the '90 to '96 coin depression and they'll pull them out again. The last time it only took one year to do it, and this time it will take five.
Don't underestimate the effect of NGC coins since late 2008 (ie half the slabbed market). Those coins had no real liquidity issues from 1998-2008. From 2009 that all changed. The liquidity plummeted and it seemed the entire market assumed a much stronger pro-PCGS, no-NGC coins bias. So it's no surprise the coin recession of 2009-2011 has lingered on when half of the slabbed market is not even on the radar of so many collectors and dealers. It's changed my thinking dramatically and I can pick out "nice" NGC coins as good as most.
@291fifth said:
Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
This is not true, but it's funny how everything is blamed on the millennial generation. It is true a portion of young people have less disposable income due to various factors, but we still are very interested in collecting coins, bullion and MANY other things.
Phones, video games, Magic the gathering, sneakers, books, computers and everything else that has value is collected by Millennials.
@TonerGuy said:
Recently getting back into coins, I have to say that my observations are limited to the 20th century toned coin market on Ebay and Great Auctions. The prices people are asking for all toned coins is ridiculous. Even those coins that use to be described as original skin are now somehow "toned beauties."
Not all toning is equal, attractive or rainbow. Just because your coin isnt "white" doesnt mean its "toned" and therefore entitled to a premium.
And those coins that are true rainbows are being priced at extremely high levels.
I think this is where dealer to dealer sales hurt the market. Each dealer in that chain adds another 10-20% to the price he paid until the last person is buried. A dealer just cant get away with that with Grey Sheet coins.
Unfortunately, there is a "rainbow sheet" giving prices of toned coins.
I talked to a dealer the other day that paid $2000 for a common date MS64 toned Peace $. In no way shape of form was his coin a $2000 toned Peace $. But he bought it from another dealer that probably paid $1600 ($800 over its true value) and had to sit on it. Now this dealer is stuck with it unless he can find some poor sucker to pay him $2200.
I agree that the toned coin market seems to be a bubble waiting to pop with common date coins selling for five figures in extreme cases. Do you care to share the name of the dealer? I have a couple of common date toned Peace Dollars with super color that I would love to sell to him.
I just don't know about "The Coin Market" To me it is way to diverse to make blanket statements and the dollar changes also. I can say I am paying more for nice medals, tokens and So called's then 10 years ago...But if adjust for inflation.........
this market is not so great? I dare you to say that after Blue Moon and this final session of Pogue. No bubbles-just well heeled collectors beating each other up for stuff they never see
toned coin market a bubble? u see the Northern Lights Morgans Legend Auctions has? each session only is getting stronger. I get shut out every time.
@291fifth said:
Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
This is not true, but it's funny how everything is blamed on the millennial generation. It is true a portion of young people have less disposable income due to various factors, but we still are very interested in collecting coins, bullion and MANY other things.
Phones, video games, Magic the gathering, sneakers, books, computers and everything else that has value is collected by Millennials.
Aren't these items being purchased for functional value? If so, is that really collecting? I don't know of many 20-35 year olds collecting laptops by make or model.
Ditto that, none collecting ANYTHING except girls maybe - there are still flippers out there!
Seriously, they really do not collect coins, rats, computers, phones, or shoes. Just throw out the old and bring in newer and better....
And it does seem to be demographics, with the inverse pyramid of buyer age demos - very few at the bottom in younger age groups and more with advancing age.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I invite anyone who thinks the coin market is weak to go out and buy NICE CAC coins for bargain prices. I cannot seem to find them. I try and keep only premium coins in my cases. The kind that do not live on the Grey Sheet, no matter what anyone says.
MLAeBayNumismatics: "The greatest hobby in the world!"
@291fifth said:
Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
This is not true, but it's funny how everything is blamed on the millennial generation. It is true a portion of young people have less disposable income due to various factors, but we still are very interested in collecting coins, bullion and MANY other things.
Phones, video games, Magic the gathering, sneakers, books, computers and everything else that has value is collected by Millennials.
And sad to say Drugs.
However I see a great point here.
The Millennial generation is so involved with the internet and completing there, that the hobby has missed including.
I am saying (for example) a registry list open just like games.
This would bring thousands if not millions of younger collectors.
Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211
@291fifth said:
Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
This is not true, but it's funny how everything is blamed on the millennial generation. It is true a portion of young people have less disposable income due to various factors, but we still are very interested in collecting coins, bullion and MANY other things.
Phones, video games, Magic the gathering, sneakers, books, computers and everything else that has value is collected by Millennials.
Aren't these items being purchased for functional value? If so, is that really collecting? I don't know of many 20-35 year olds collecting laptops by make or model.
I think I minght not have been specific enough. I'm talking about collector items like limited edition Michael jordan sneakers that cost $1,000+, vintage Apple 1 computers and accessories that are worth $10,000-100,000 or video games and consoles that are rare and have a strong following too.
The thing about Air Jordans is that they can be very rare. For example, there were only 72 pairs of the UNDFTD Air Jordan IV made which currently runs for $30k. Compare that to the mintages of many coins in the same price range.
Coin club has pulled back buying coins, lowest buying ever last 16 months , down buying 70 %, did not chase the Gold rise .. money instead flowing into stock market
I agree that the toned coin market seems to be a bubble waiting to pop with common date coins selling for five figures in extreme cases. Do you care to share the name of the dealer? I have a couple of common date toned Peace Dollars with super color that I would love to sell to him.
I cant say its a bubble. I would like to think that beautifully toned War Nickles arent $900 coins but who knows. They arent moving at that price from what I can tell but someone is holding out hope... lol
He's learned his lesson. When he asked me the price I would pay he kinda got sticker shock. Its a $500 coin to me maybe an $800 coin to others.
PM what you have and prices. Im always a buyer of nicely toned Peace $...
Is the US Vintage Coin Market all there is? Of course not, not by any stretch of the imagination. I won 2 NGC slabbed Canadian coins recently for $20 that have a combined MV of $155 on ebay. One with a CV of $30 I won for $4 - less than 100 pieces graded for the issue. An MS65 1950's 25c I won for $16, CV 125 with 11 graded only 6 higher. Low pop coins for around 13 % of CV.
The PCGS 3000 dropped below 60000 to 59974 and is -1.14 % for the year. When I see the PCGS 3000 going up and bids in CDN going up every week I will be more optimistic. Am I out to buy CAC Coins? Not if way over what I pay and not seeking big ticket material - too risky for my taste. Besides US coins not only part of numismatic market or my inventory - there is World, Currency, and Mods. My last census of certified material on ebay - 363 K items of which only 6.5 k CAC items just around 1.8% of certified items.
@roadrunner said:
Don't underestimate the effect of NGC coins since late 2008 (ie half the slabbed market). Those coins had no real liquidity issues from 1998-2008. From 2009 that all changed. The liquidity plummeted and it seemed the entire market assumed a much stronger pro-PCGS, no-NGC coins bias. So it's no surprise the coin recession of 2009-2011 has lingered on when half of the slabbed market is not even on the radar of so many collectors and dealers. It's changed my thinking dramatically and I can pick out "nice" NGC coins as good as most.
Sadly I've come to the PCGS only position after fighting it for years. I think that collectors are better off with more than one viable certification company, but NGC is on a self destructive path. You can only keep up your market by giving dealers and other submitters "gimmee grades" without destroying your reputation for grading accuracy. You can old get the prices for over graded coins for so long based on a brand name.
I bought an NGC - CAC graded coin at the last FUN show. A dealer friend told it was over graded as an AU-58. I didn't agree with that opinion, but it shows where NGC has taken itself.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Comments
I once watched a neighboring business owner liquidate by auction.
The auctioneer told him, "watch this" and proceeded to get one guy bidding against himself!!!
It was fairly easy.
Opened my eyes to "auctions."
The market is in the tank and has been for sometime. Retail sales have been very slow. It reminds me of the stagnant market that persisted for sometime after the 1989-90 crash. Currency is really bad it's only redeeming quality is its light to carry and makes my cases look good at shows.
I have no interest in increasing inventory beyond my plan number. At shows my best offer usually 80 pct CDN bid (assuming need item) beyond that no interest. On eBay I will not pay above 60-65 pct of what can sell for. Items I have sold this year almost 2x cost realized. A major NN advertiser marks up their vintage material 50 pct above CDN bid (scarce items may be above that) as they are not going to let it go for nothing. I carry a lot of similar items and refer to their price lists a lot.
Don't get buried in inventory and get good retail on what you can. Buying it right is where money is made.
I don't believe most people can afford coins over $300. Big ticket coins can be very risky.
Gold may be at a bottom leg with upside if investing I like PCGS 69 AGE, AGB. These are highly liquid on eBay.
My sales are way up this year.
Market is doing just fine IMO.
But I use ebay so what do I know.
I don't know about the US market, but the Canadian coin market has been in a major depression since the Financial Crisis of 2008. Any dealer telling you otherwise is shooting hot air through their you-know-what.
"“Those who sacrifice liberty for security/safety deserve neither.“(Benjamin Franklin)
"I only golf on days that end in 'Y'" (DE59)
What we are seeing is increased volatility as a result of decreased demand. Case in point I'm bidding on a coin now that is already 1.5x what it should sell for because me and some other person want it. Price will be higher because 2 people are in a bidding war.
Conversely I won a coin a few weeks ago for 60% why it should have sold for because I was the only person on that day who was interested. So lack of demand has been creating anomalistic pricing over the past 12 months. Prices are either resiclously high or criminally cheap...nothing in between for the stuff I collect.
If it is any way "ordinary" it is dead and it is not coming back to life. Collectibles of many kinds seem to be facing similar circumstances. I was recently discussing the antique market with a dealer. Young people are not interested and prices are falling as a result.
The bargains I bought three or four years ago, purchased for prices where I could have sold for a small immediate profit at the time, are now burials where I would be lucky to break even.
Many young people struggling with student debt don't have money for coins period. The people that got burned when MS65 Dollars were around $1000 before the 89 crash never came back as have others who invested in big ticket 5000 coins they were later forced to sell at 50-60% of what they paid when forced to sell due to economic conditions.
I wish I could take advantage of this bad market. I am small potatoes, few of the coins I bid on are over the four hundred dollar mark. Still, I have had less than 6 successful bids in the last six months, ( out of around 70). Just about every time I find a coin I want the price goes 10 to 25 percent higher than I bid. If I make an internet comment about what I am bidding on, I am almost always told "That part of the market is doing OK". I have tried Proof Indian Head Cents, mid grade Seated Dollars, xf/au Seated coins, Capped Bust Half Dollars.
If the coin is strong for the grade no bargains exist. Final note though. If the coin market had to depend on my purchases, all coin dealers would be sleeping in cardboard boxes and buying their groceries at the food shelf. So weigh my words accordingly.
" If the coin market had to depend on my purchases, all coin dealers would be sleeping in cardboard boxes and buying their groceries at the food shelf. "
In some cases, that seems quite appropriate.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Ok
A propos to young people, there is a minimalism movement, and people, in general and especially young people, want less stuff. Forget about selling your dining room furniture, armoire, fine china, etc. when you downsize, unless it is really, really special. In all likelihood, you will have to pay someone to take away that upright piano.
I am not sure to what extent this applies to coins, per se, if at all, but it's worth noting. Coins are small and can be a store of value (if not an outright investment/speculation/gamble/business).
IMO, you don't necessarily need to sell to get the pulse of the market. If you are looking to buy a coin that is hard to find because of demand then it stands to reason that that same coin should be easy to sell [if you had one] regardless of market conditions.
Chumley said seated halves were dead...I had an XF 90%+ complete set I put together in the 80's and had to sell. Last time I checked prices it would cost me 10X my original cost to put that set back together. I'll check, but I'm not hopeful that it's that dead.
Maybe the minimalists could get all excited over 3c silvers and gold dollars.
I'll go away now.
Seated material was gang busters from around 1998-2008, and especially from 2002-2006. It caught up for a decade of sleeping before them. It hasn't been on fire since 2008....mostly stagnant or declining. A number of gem seated coins I owned in the mid-1980's are now up 10X what they were then. But they are far more precarious today than they were in 1986. A lot of great coins could be bought for $2K-$5K back then....and are now $20K-$50K coins today. But don't look for another 10X any time soon.
As a (mostly) outside obverse of the market, I have to say that it can't be a coincidence that the slowdown in the coin market occurred at the same time the recession hit, (generally stated as 2008 for both).
So, the question is: Is it the "new reality" for the coin market, or something we just need to get past? I think we'll know soon since the economy has now "fixed" most of it's problems, (unemployment, slumping stocks, failing home market, etc.), and may be on the way to heating up, (higher earnings, higher interest rates, at least SOME inflation, etc.)
If the coin market doesn't start showing life in a year or two, it's time to start thinking that maybe it's headed for a long term stagnation due to demographics, or some other real change. If it comes back, it was just a long business cycle....
Find me a single person who paid $1,000 for a common date MS65 Morgan dollar in 1989. That's a lot of hype. The truth is not a single person paid $1,000 for a common MS65 blast white Morgan....therefore no one left the market and never came back. The slabbed coin market mania of 1989 brought common gem commems and type coins to absurd heights. Discuss that area if you want to pity the poor collector or investor of summer 1989. Also factor into your analysis that many of those coins were 1 grade, and sometimes 2 grades higher today.
Reality is that when PCGS first opened up in 1986 they had so few Morgan dollars slabbed that MS65 prices did start out around $600-$700 because their was no supply and strong demand. By 1988 they were bringing $350-$400. Maybe at the very market peak in summer 1989 they were somewhat higher to $400-$450. By end of 1989 they were down to $300 and stayed there to about April 1990.
$1,000 Morgans that collectors got stuck with? I don't think so. And if you kept those same nice $300 Morgans through today, odds would favor you having a MS66 which only a couple years ago were up in the $275-$325 range again. At their bottom in 2002/2003 I recall buying 60 or so pieces for $76/coin. Prices are variable....and opportunities always exist. During the silver run up in 2011 I recall MS65 Morgans reaching $225.
Roadrunner states it as I remember it also -
I was one of the original 31 dealers invited by
David to be an authorized PCGS dealer - before
anyone really had much of an idea of just how it would
change the coin market.
MS-65 Morgan's went crazy, and as mentioned, because they
were months behind in grading, AND everyone wanted some
type of product --- prices on those, and Walkers, for example,
also went nuts - but nothing like those round silver Morgans !
for PCGS. A 49+-Year PNG Member...A full numismatist since 1972, retired in 2022
As I and others have stated earlier, 2008 was the start of the decline.
What happened next in Canada, must have happened in the US to some degree and that is.........
Here in Ontario Canada, From 2008 to 2011, coin shows were jam packed for three years, yet coins weren't selling.
Everyone was buying gold and mainly silver rounds, bars and ingots.
Canadian silver maple leafs wouldn't last 5 minutes in a dealer's showcase.
Then in 2011 the PM crash hit.
So in a span of 3 years (2008 to 2011) the Canadian coin collector got stung (and I mean 'badly' stung) TWICE!!
Given there has been no economic recovery since and there has also been an over supply of high grade material coming to auction and the still present 'hurt' of these two economics disasters, the market is extremely depressed.
I've always said for any chance of this market to get going again, PMs will have to at least reach their 2011 highs.
Then and only then will there be a lot more spending going on.
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LOL, he flagged this. That's hilarious. Well, sorry, but you do.
Seated stuff seems to be taking a hit, but I've noticed a pronounces interest in Barber coinage, especially half dollars.
I would respectfully disagree with the OP. I don't think, by any means, that we are in a bull market, but we have bounced from the bottom and dealers are generally feeling positive about the overall market.
Good, interesting coins, fresh coins to market, etc are selling quickly when offered at current market levels. The key is selling at current levels as many prices have retreated over the past 3-5 years.
In some ways, this is both a buyer's market and seller's market. In 30+ years on the wholesale side of this market, I can tell you there's never a time when all dealers tell you things are great. But, today the mood-meter is fairly decent (maybe 4-7 on a 10 scale, depending on who you ask)
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Recently getting back into coins, I have to say that my observations are limited to the 20th century toned coin market on Ebay and Great Auctions. The prices people are asking for all toned coins is ridiculous. Even those coins that use to be described as original skin are now somehow "toned beauties."
Not all toning is equal, attractive or rainbow. Just because your coin isnt "white" doesnt mean its "toned" and therefore entitled to a premium.
And those coins that are true rainbows are being priced at extremely high levels.
I think this is where dealer to dealer sales hurt the market. Each dealer in that chain adds another 10-20% to the price he paid until the last person is buried. A dealer just cant get away with that with Grey Sheet coins.
Unfortunately, there is a "rainbow sheet" giving prices of toned coins.
I talked to a dealer the other day that paid $2000 for a common date MS64 toned Peace $. In no way shape of form was his coin a $2000 toned Peace $. But he bought it from another dealer that probably paid $1600 ($800 over its true value) and had to sit on it. Now this dealer is stuck with it unless he can find some poor sucker to pay him $2200.
I have seen huge pop increases in some material I collect. This has butchered the prices of these coins. I also do not like 80% of what I have seen in recently made coins for the grade. I recently passed on an all there 1896 Liberty Nickel in PC 6, at $6K. In late 2014, this was a $14,000 coin. I don't want to buy into this market.
"Seu cabra da peste,
"Sou Mangueira......."
Moderns are doing quite well thank you.
I don't know how the high grades are doing but the raw moderns and choice coins are fairly strong and still gaining momentum. The real strength is in foreign moderns. I went to a coin show for the first time in years and was amazed by the fact that all the good modern foreign was gone. I expected to see the coins that had gone up thousands of percent on tables at their new high prices but they weren't in evidence. There were a few exception in specialist stock but for the main part it wasn't out there at fifty cents and it's still not out there at $100.
Tokens and medals appear stronger than they had been as well.
Modern pulled classics out of the depths of the '90 to '96 coin depression and they'll pull them out again. The last time it only took one year to do it, and this time it will take five.
I guess I'm not in the doom and gloom crowd. Are prices generally down....yes. Are gold/silver generics soft....yes.
Are we still selling a lot of coins......absolutely.
There are tons of collectors out there, most of whom never set foot in a coin show, in a Heritage auction, or even on these boards.
I would say that the market is VERY price sensitive for all but the nicest and neatest coins. And there are areas that are downright soft.
But the market is still moving along and many coins are going into collections, new and old, every day.
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Don't underestimate the effect of NGC coins since late 2008 (ie half the slabbed market). Those coins had no real liquidity issues from 1998-2008. From 2009 that all changed. The liquidity plummeted and it seemed the entire market assumed a much stronger pro-PCGS, no-NGC coins bias. So it's no surprise the coin recession of 2009-2011 has lingered on when half of the slabbed market is not even on the radar of so many collectors and dealers. It's changed my thinking dramatically and I can pick out "nice" NGC coins as good as most.
This is not true, but it's funny how everything is blamed on the millennial generation. It is true a portion of young people have less disposable income due to various factors, but we still are very interested in collecting coins, bullion and MANY other things.
Phones, video games, Magic the gathering, sneakers, books, computers and everything else that has value is collected by Millennials.
I agree that the toned coin market seems to be a bubble waiting to pop with common date coins selling for five figures in extreme cases. Do you care to share the name of the dealer? I have a couple of common date toned Peace Dollars with super color that I would love to sell to him.
I just don't know about "The Coin Market" To me it is way to diverse to make blanket statements and the dollar changes also. I can say I am paying more for nice medals, tokens and So called's then 10 years ago...But if adjust for inflation.........
this market is not so great? I dare you to say that after Blue Moon and this final session of Pogue. No bubbles-just well heeled collectors beating each other up for stuff they never see
toned coin market a bubble? u see the Northern Lights Morgans Legend Auctions has? each session only is getting stronger. I get shut out every time.
Aren't these items being purchased for functional value? If so, is that really collecting? I don't know of many 20-35 year olds collecting laptops by make or model.
Ditto that, none collecting ANYTHING except girls maybe - there are still flippers out there!
Seriously, they really do not collect coins, rats, computers, phones, or shoes. Just throw out the old and bring in newer and better....
And it does seem to be demographics, with the inverse pyramid of buyer age demos - very few at the bottom in younger age groups and more with advancing age.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I invite anyone who thinks the coin market is weak to go out and buy NICE CAC coins for bargain prices. I cannot seem to find them. I try and keep only premium coins in my cases. The kind that do not live on the Grey Sheet, no matter what anyone says.
Do you agree that blitzdude is a great guy?
And sad to say Drugs.
However I see a great point here.
The Millennial generation is so involved with the internet and completing there, that the hobby has missed including.
I am saying (for example) a registry list open just like games.
This would bring thousands if not millions of younger collectors.
Anyone have this in their registry set?
I think I minght not have been specific enough. I'm talking about collector items like limited edition Michael jordan sneakers that cost $1,000+, vintage Apple 1 computers and accessories that are worth $10,000-100,000 or video games and consoles that are rare and have a strong following too.
The thing about Air Jordans is that they can be very rare. For example, there were only 72 pairs of the UNDFTD Air Jordan IV made which currently runs for $30k. Compare that to the mintages of many coins in the same price range.
Nice! Never knew these existed. I texted a picture of this to my son at college and he thought it was awesome.
What is the registry set name?
Where the hell did I say that?
Apparently @ShadyDave said that. Not sure how that misquote happened. I've fixed it in my post above.
Yeah. I didn't remember even seeing that, much less responding.
Coin club has pulled back buying coins, lowest buying ever last 16 months , down buying 70 %, did not chase the Gold rise .. money instead flowing into stock market
I cant say its a bubble. I would like to think that beautifully toned War Nickles arent $900 coins but who knows. They arent moving at that price from what I can tell but someone is holding out hope... lol
He's learned his lesson. When he asked me the price I would pay he kinda got sticker shock. Its a $500 coin to me maybe an $800 coin to others.
PM what you have and prices. Im always a buyer of nicely toned Peace $...
Is the US Vintage Coin Market all there is? Of course not, not by any stretch of the imagination. I won 2 NGC slabbed Canadian coins recently for $20 that have a combined MV of $155 on ebay. One with a CV of $30 I won for $4 - less than 100 pieces graded for the issue. An MS65 1950's 25c I won for $16, CV 125 with 11 graded only 6 higher. Low pop coins for around 13 % of CV.
The PCGS 3000 dropped below 60000 to 59974 and is -1.14 % for the year. When I see the PCGS 3000 going up and bids in CDN going up every week I will be more optimistic. Am I out to buy CAC Coins? Not if way over what I pay and not seeking big ticket material - too risky for my taste. Besides US coins not only part of numismatic market or my inventory - there is World, Currency, and Mods. My last census of certified material on ebay - 363 K items of which only 6.5 k CAC items just around 1.8% of certified items.
Sadly I've come to the PCGS only position after fighting it for years. I think that collectors are better off with more than one viable certification company, but NGC is on a self destructive path. You can only keep up your market by giving dealers and other submitters "gimmee grades" without destroying your reputation for grading accuracy. You can old get the prices for over graded coins for so long based on a brand name.
I bought an NGC - CAC graded coin at the last FUN show. A dealer friend told it was over graded as an AU-58. I didn't agree with that opinion, but it shows where NGC has taken itself.
Charge less.