@TommyType said:
I hesitate to ask this....someone is going to be offended. But honestly, I'm not insinuating anything, since I don't know the answer. Just asking:
When CAC says they will buy any CAC'ed coin...what price level are we talking about? What price guide, newsletter, price quote is the source?
And if it's some source we mere mortals don't have access to...how does it compare to actual retail/auction/wholesale prices?
As you can surmise, I'm trying to figure out if the CAC buyback price is really better than selling in some other manner?
As for the source of pricing information, I think Mr. Albanese makes his own determination. In the past, some of the prices have been close to the Greysheet, but I have also had esoteric items where it appears that CAC may have relied on auction data or at least the offer was closer to a recent auction sale. Whether he used those sources or not, I don't know for sure. I will say that John has always been very fair to me, and I am grateful for all of the offers that I have received and have sold a few coins to CAC.
While I am critical of some of the market effects that I am seeing (which are unintended), my criticisms are really leveled towards human behavior/market participants and not CAC itself.
@TommyType said:
I hesitate to ask this....someone is going to be offended. But honestly, I'm not insinuating anything, since I don't know the answer. Just asking:
When CAC says they will buy any CAC'ed coin...what price level are we talking about? What price guide, newsletter, price quote is the source?
And if it's some source we mere mortals don't have access to...how does it compare to actual retail/auction/wholesale prices?
As you can surmise, I'm trying to figure out if the CAC buyback price is really better than selling in some other manner?
In the past, some of the prices have been close to the Greysheet.
Not just close. Many of the prices in the greysheet are CAC bids.
I was going to say, PCGS CAC prices are now the norm, PCGS non-CAC prices are like the NGC prices before CAC. NGC prices (CAC) are same as PCGS non-CAC, and NGC non-CAC prices are like the old ICG prices.
In the business world we call this birdcage management. You rattle the cage, there is lots of noise and dust and commotion -- people proclaim change or progress but at the end of the day they are the same birds just sitting on different perches.
@PaleElf said:
Gradeflation helped push me away from coins and on to other collectibles recently. Don't have the time or energy to play the gradeflation game.
I don't disagree but that's why I'm so excited when I acquire a coin that's been acknowledged as finest known for decades...so it kind of balances out
@elmiracoin said:
I do not believe CAC was a plus to the hobby/business. to the contrary, I think it has helped to disrupt the marketplace in a very negative manner.
Seems to me that everything bad about CAC is the same as we were already getting from PCGS and NGC. The good that came from CAC was a way to keep beanable coins from going down the drain with everything else. But please tell me if I'm missing something.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Any market maker willing to posting tens or hundreds of millions in open bids to purchase PCGS and NGC coins is an incredibly positive and supporting force for the coin market. CAC is just that. At the moment, there isn't any other company willing to post prolific bids across the spectrum of certified coins. Here at CDN we wish there were more players posting bids of any size. THat's what the market needs... and it helps by creating a pricing floor. As others have mentioned CAC leads the market in most of their bids, as well.
John Feigenbaum Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com) PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
@coincommando said:
cac created stability and confidence-in their market. god only knows what saints would look like today with out them
At the end of the day, CAC will be no different. I have re-submitted two coins to CAC that did not CAC initially, but did after a resubmission (and I don't submit that many coins to CAC). It is all business and they (PCGS, CAC, etc) have to do what they have to do to keep their revenue and profit up. In the short term, gradeflation will make the grading companies money. In the long term, it will ultimately drive people away. Then once everyone is fed up with gradeflation to the point that submissions drop, they will introduce a new grading system that will push/force people to submit coins for regrading under the new system. And the cycle continues.
go to coinplex where cac makes hundreds of very real bids
coinplex is a network for large dealers and partners with PNG. The other 99% of the coin collecting world do not have access to that information.
@JohnF said:
Any market maker willing to posting(sic) tens or hundreds of millions in open bids to purchase PCGS and NGC coins is an incredibly positive and supporting force for the coin market. CAC is just that.
Again, those bids are posted for dealers who have access to coinplex. Others who have stickered coins and have called CAC directly are given individual offers for their coins and as some have posted on this forum, they have been told in some instances that CAC was not buying their particular coins at this time and would make no offer.
That does not make for much of a "market" and does not fit the definition of a market maker.
The market may be down for certain types of coins but good for others. I believe modern bullion coins have probably taken a hit recently. But, if a market is down for a particular type of coin, this could mean bargain pricing. Also, if the market is lack luster for recently released US coins, then this could spell key date high pricing for them down the road. Glass half empty or glass half full?
go to coinplex where cac makes hundreds of very real bids
coinplex is a network for large dealers and partners with PNG. The other 99% of the coin collecting world do not have access to that information.
@JohnF said:
Any market maker willing to posting(sic) tens or hundreds of millions in open bids to purchase PCGS and NGC coins is an incredibly positive and supporting force for the coin market. CAC is just that.
Again, those bids are posted for dealers who have access to coinplex. Others who have stickered coins and have called CAC directly are given individual offers for their coins and as some have posted on this forum, they have been told in some instances that CAC was not buying their particular coins at this time and would make no offer.
That does not make for much of a "market" and does not fit the definition of a market maker.
Sure it does. CAC, along with PCGS/NGC were devised to create a sight unseen dealer to dealer market. They accomplish that. Collectors get the added benefit of a semi standardized grading system and liquidity, but none of these companies were started to help make sure collectors could more easily sell their coins. They were started to attempt to create, stabilize, whatever a "Market" for dealers.
In analyzing the pricing of a major advertiser in NN material is priced at CDN Bid + 50% (if I am forced to put out an average). There are very few CAC coins in their ads (and CAC coins a very small portion of certified material on ebay anyway - slightly below 2%). This advertiser prices NGC and PCGS coins essentially the same. If bid goes up, the change is usually reflected in their retail pricing. Sometimes I wonder if NN / CW use the same metric or get their prices from their price lists / ads as seem to match a lot of the time or within say 5%. Obviously their material is in very strong hands and I look at what they are selling a coin for which I may be bidding on to put in my inventory.
To analyze differences in NGC / PCGS CCDN Bid one needs to look at the individual issues involved. Its not something generalizations can be easily made about. Often the NGC and PCGS CCDN Bids are the same across the board unless your moving to high grade big ticket material. You can check your blue sheet if you know what I mean. My professional background is in Accounting - Major Projects Financial Controls, Financial, and Cost plus teaching evening Acctg Classes at a local college awhile back so I am always looking for some metric or as an auditor where is dealer Y (who I consider at the top of the game) relative to x. To drill down further I may look at the coin on their website and c if its as nice as the one in my inventory or bidding on. There are many resources in this electronic age and many can be easily done from smart phone.
Sunday morning you will find me with coffee looking for pickoffs (before the west coast wakes up) or analyzing some dealers ad and material from an audit sample......
In gauging the market I would suggest you take the Kitco Prices for gold and silver track them about a benchmark say Jan 01-2017 and do the same for the PCGS 3000 Index. Everybody has their spiel about the market and how their inventory is so wonderful and the market up for it but what I am interested is what do the numbers say I can verify from independent sources.
@coincommando said:
cac created stability and confidence-in their market. god only knows what saints would look like today with out them
Forget what the Gem Saint market would look like without CAC, let's look at what it actually has become with them. CAC stickers approx 5% of MS65 or higher generic Saints. That means 95% of them are now considered low end or next grade down. They trade like 64+ coins with very small premiums to 64's. The non-CAC 66's trade like CAC 65's. 5% of this market is now supported by CAC and its dealer network. The other 95% is in the toilet. More "unintended consequences." CAC's 5% rate on gem gold doesn't occur in any other choice/gem MS type coin that I'm aware of. It never happened with MS65 Morgans where the same potential existed. I wonder why they chose to accept 5% of gem $20's yet 30-45% of gem MS65 generic Morgans? Certainly 95% of the >100,000 MS65 Morgans in slabs can't all be "problem" coins.
And to answer CC's original question in another way. With CAC only approving 5% of the generic gem $20's market, they are leaving the other 95% of it in whatever shape it morphs too. Which has been to the basement. Still, if there are abuses in the gem Saints, if only 5% are getting "selected," the other 95% can still run wild and provide whatever profits the coin marketeers dictate. How can you police 5% of a market and expect anything but chaos? What if CAC decided that rub on MS draped bust or capped bust coinage was no longer acceptable? And chose to only sticker 5% of Mint State coins? Would we then say "god only knows what MS bust coinage would look like today without CAC?" I think not. While this does create stability and confidence in THEIR 5% market, it doesn't do much at all for the other 95%. In fact all we know about that 95% is that they are not CAC worthy....which seems to be all anyone cares about. Certainly some of those 95% would be "strong" low end coins. But anything not meeting the CAC MS65.40 standard (ie MS65.3's) are tossed out. Slabbed MS65's that range from MS64.5 to MS65.3 are all treated basically the same when they didn't sticker.
_I wonder why they chose to accept 5% of gem $20's yet 30-45% of gem MS65 generic Morgans? _
You really don't know? It's because in order to promote 'trade your coins for bullion' the bullion has to have significant numismatic premium. MS65 is where that kicks in for Saints. There is TREMENDOUS pressure to overgrade Saints because promoters NEED the grade on the label more than they need the quality of the coin.
Yeah, I've looked at what was in the holders quite closely. I traded almost exclusively in ch/gem gold from 2006-2011 during that final run up. On one CAC submission for a client in Dec 2008, we went through 250 MS65 Saints (an even TPG mix) that they hand picked during the 1998-2006 period, rejecting at least half of what they were offered for dipping, too many marks, bad color, etc. We only picked the best 115 or so MS65 Saints to submit not wanting to waste as much time. Before going in, I honestly felt 30-60% of these coins would sticker based on CAC's results on other gem coins. Out of that group only 6 stickered....5-6%. There were also dozens of rattler, ogh, and old fatty 61-64 $20's...many of them very solid if not pq-ish. Only 40% of those stickered which sort of shocked me too. Any obvious upgrade potential coins from that hoard were sent to the TPG's earlier and about 1/2-2/3 did upgrade.
So in a way, by the client originally rejecting 1/2 the saints offered, and only then picking the best 1/2 to send in, and then getting a 6% sticker rate, you could almost say the "net" rate was really 1.5%. Of the 6 out of 115 MS65 Saints that stickered, I didn't see 3 of them being any better than the rejects. Could be that CAC was really tough in late 2008. Haven't tried them recently on a large group of 65's. I still have the CAC invoices from 2008 to show what transpired. I don't know what other people's experiences are, but this was a 1.5-6% rate on 115-250+ coins depending on your view. As of today, CAC has stickered approximately 5,000 or so MS65 Saints....5% of the PCGS pops. NGC probably has 100K as well. So with resubmissions, figure 100K between them still in holders. So that 5% figure is probably going to rise as more coins get submitted. The rate could be from 5-15%. I personally saw 6%.
Does anyone disagree that as a general rule (there are always exceptions ) that CAC saints are nicer than the vast majority of non CAC saints of the same grade ? And if so, shouldn't they trade for a premium.
Whatever you say CC...lol. I guess looking through thousands of $20's didn't matter. Now tell us your personal, skin in the game experiences with submitting large quantities of MS65 or better $20s to CAC. We're all ears around here.
Fwiw, how do you explain an at best 6% rate on 250 coins? I didn't put them into those holders. PCGS and NGC did. I only picked the best coins out of that group to see how they would do. How is that "my" problem. That makes me a "bad" grader? You're just too funny. You have an "answer" for everything...even if they NEVER make any sense. Keep trying. Wait, wait I have it. Had I sent in the other 135 coins that I didn't select....those would have stickered at a 30-40% rate, right? LOL. CC falls on their sword again. Talks a big market game....has no experiences to relate with us. Sad.
@roadrunner said:
What if CAC decided that rub on MS draped bust or capped bust coinage was no longer acceptable?
It is too bad that this isn't the case. Friction/rub is friction/rub regardless of whether it is from a collector's coin cabinet or album slide marks or from light circulation. The problem is that the grading services no longer grade coins; they attempt to price them and award an equivalent "grade" based on perceived value that may or may not be supported by the coin's technical details. If the argument is that some AU coins should be worth more than low MS coins and that the services are merely compensating, rather than playing games and marketing hype like "cabinet friction" or "shipwreck effect" the grading scale should be revisited IMHO. It appears that the market is doing just fine sorting through AU coins that should sell for MS money despite the lower grade. Look no further than capped bust coinage. Eye appealing AU58s often sell for low MS money.
@coincommando said:
cac created stability and confidence-in their market. god only knows what saints would look like today with out them
At the end of the day, CAC will be no different. I have re-submitted two coins to CAC that did not CAC initially, but did after a resubmission (and I don't submit that many coins to CAC). It is all business and they (PCGS, CAC, etc) have to do what they have to do to keep their revenue and profit up. In the short term, gradeflation will make the grading companies money. In the long term, it will ultimately drive people away. Then once everyone is fed up with gradeflation to the point that submissions drop, they will introduce a new grading system that will push/force people to submit coins for regrading under the new system. And the cycle continues.
I don't agree regarding CAC. CAC doesn't charge collectors for coins that don't sticker. I happen to be a collector, and I too have had coins that failed CAC initially sticker upon resubmission. There is no economic incentive for this. CAC also makes a tiny amount on stickering. Actually, CAC probably loses money considering all of the labor, notes and calls with collectors/dealers, etc. CAC's money comes from flipping CAC certified coins that it purchases.
Another CAC factoid. They've stickered 27 total 1908 NM Saints in MS67. Most of these are probably from the WF hoard for which PCGS listed 695 of them on the Oct 1998 pop report. No matter how you slice that up right now, it's a 3.9% rate. And I would imagine most anyone owning a 1908 NM MS67 Saint, has tried to get it stickered by now because of the huge premium that would result from a $10-$15 sticker. How about the 100 or so 1908 NM MS68 Saints, all from WF? CAC hasn't stickered a single coin....0% rate. What was CC saying earlier? That CAC is not too tough, it's just our problem? And I'm a bad grader. LOL. And those WF saints were graded back in the early 1990's...long before the Saint gradeflation got underway. According to DH there were approx 1,000 PCGS MS67's originally which would drop the sticker rate down to 2.7%. There were 10 MS69's too....no doubt no stickers on those in our future.
I realize JA probably doesn't like 1908 NM saints possibly because of the strike or stacking issues, and many dealers don't either. But couldn't just 1 out of 100 MS68's warrant a sticker? Why only a 3% sticker rate of MS65 WF Saints which were all put away decades ago and never saw the light of day until the early 1990's? Even a fresh hoard just as like being minted yesterday can't sticker better than 3%. And then my own experiences above netting a 1.5% rate...with a max of 6%. This is today's Saint market that CoinCommando has stated CAC has made better and safer for all of us. Well, maybe better for those that owned the 6%. Not so good for anyone with the other 94%.
CAC is in business for themselves. They can sticker at any rate they want for any coins. That's their right. They've done plenty of good things. There are also unintended consequences as no "good deed" goes unpunished. From everything I've seen though, CAC is more than tough enough on gem gold $20's. It's not my problem.
@roadrunner said:
Another CAC factoid. They've stickered 27 total 1908 NM Saints in MS67. Most of these are probably from the WF hoard for which PCGS initially graded 695 of them. No matter how you slice that up right now, it's a 3.9% rate. And I would imagine most anyone holding a 1908 NM MS67 Saint, has tried to get it stickered by now because of the huge premium that would result from a $10-$15 sticker. How about the 100 or so 1908 NM MS68 Saints, all from WF. CAC hasn't stickered a single coin....0% rate. What was CC saying that CAC is not too tough, it's just our problem. LOL.
My guess is that most of 27 1908 NM Saints were not from the Wells Fargo hoard at least based on some of the low end examples I have seen. My opinion is that the hoard was graded generously.
@Gazes said:
Does anyone disagree that as a general rule (there are always exceptions ) that CAC saints are nicer than the vast majority of non CAC saints of the same grade ? And if so, shouldn't they trade for a premium.
Of course. I've consistently stated since 2009 that CAC MS65 Saints look very much like MS66 generic ones. They have traded for similar money in the past. They deserve a premium...especially since they are the best 5-15% of the breed in JA's opinion. Now what about the other 85-95% of the market? How does any part of the coin market benefit by rejecting up to 95% of supply? Just asking here as I'd like to know what the overall market benefit to anyone but CAC has been by raising the 5% at the expense of the 95%. Have the TPG's now altered their grading over the past 8 yrs to agree with CAC so that everyone's standards align again?
Saints are where you really see the CAC difference. Night vs Day. This was the most abused area of over gradiing. Low CAC acceptence doesn't surprise me.
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
While non CAC coins are selling lower, one of the benefits of non CAC is less volatility. Non CAC coins have all moved lower and the trading range is narrower/more defined vs. CAC coins, which sell for all over-the-place money (often irrationally). One AU58 CAC sells for $4k and another AU58 CAC sells for $6.9k. That is too much volatility for every day John/Jane Doe collector...
The lower end collector actually has more downside protection with non CAC coins since non CAC coins are already trading lower and in a much narrower/tighter band, and upside opportunity since the non CAC coins might eventually sticker and even upgrade, while CAC coins have less upside potential, since they are already much more expensive, and more downside exposure since often "better" CAC coins can be had.
Anyhow, just wanted to point out this observation from a different perspective...
That CDN appears to assume CAC Saints are nicer in posting higher bids for them in grades MS63 and above. I have to look at the individual coin myself and would not just automatically pick something just bc it has a sticker.
@mercurydimeguy said:
While non CAC coins are selling lower, one of the benefits of non CAC is less volatility. Non CAC coins have all moved lower and the trading range is narrower/more defined vs. CAC coins, which sell for all over-the-place money (often irrationally). One AU58 CAC sells for $4k and another AU58 CAC sells for $6.9k. That is too much volatility for every day John/Jane Doe collector...
The lower end collector actually has more downside protection with non CAC coins since non CAC coins are already trading lower and in a much narrower/tighter band, and upside opportunity since the non CAC coins might eventually sticker and even upgrade, while CAC coins have less upside potential, since they are already much more expensive, and more downside exposure since often "better" CAC coins can be had.
Anyhow, just wanted to point out this observation from a different perspective...
You're right. When the numismatic premium completely disappears for non CAC coins, there is definitely less volatility in their liquidity so as long as the precious metal market plays along. Once you hit a certain low, there isn't much farther to fall. I don't see this as an optimistic message.
@elmiracoin said:
Isn't CACing and dealing a conflict of interest?
No because they don't sticker their own inventory. They review coins from others and if the coins are subsequently presented for sale, CAC will make an offer. At the time of the beaning, someone else owns the piece and CAC has no matured pecuinary interest.
There is no doubt the Coin Market is in the tank and Currency is much worse. Why all this talk about CAC, - has nothing to do with the real coin market (as reflected by bullion indexes, PCGS 3000, and retail sales market wide) and is completely out of other numismatic areas like mods, world, and currency, CAC is a very small portion of items on ebay. Lets face it, many are not going to spend over $300 for a numismatic purchase whether its lack of money or competition from entertainment venues. Many advertisers in NN, Coin World have little or no CAC material and probably could care less. One rather large advertiser in NN, I have seen only about 1 or 2 CAC coins in their hundreds of items which can't all be reflected in one issue - they sure are not worried about CAC.
Sometimes things reach a point where they have basically seen their day. It could be a career that flaked out ruined by the oil crunch and age bias, a relationship one thought would be good for life, or a physical function eroded by the aging process as the function prolonging drugs no longer work.
I am not willing to say this for numismatics, but have decided to stay inventory / numismatic business neutral - no increase or decrease in investment. I am sure this years results will make a good impact on my Schedule C Tax Shelter.
If your buried in numismatic coins Richard Nachbar had an impressive ad in coin world he will buy your numismatic coins your buried in so you can in to go into Gold. He had an impressive historical gold chart showing we are on second leg of upward trend. I cut it out and put in my notebook.
I do agree with his premise and sadly many are buried in big ticket coins (CAC or not) that they probably would not get 60-80% of what they are in them, I see this happening all the time on the bourse at shows.
I do spend over $300 in intems: Usually slabbed World Gold, MS69 AGE, AGB, quality large size certified currency (so much rarer than coins). As far as the average show attendee big spenders can be rarer than the coins and in a room with over 100 competing dealers good luck.
My opinions on the market are my own (online store, table at shows) and mainly based on performance of the PCGS 3000 index and Kitco (Gold, Silver, Platinum) tracked over time - verifiable data.
I think you are more likely to be buried $300 at a time then on quality big ticket items. I see this over and over in all markets. Blue ribbon collectibles never go out of style.
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
No more than submitting coins to be graded and selling them on eBay or shuffling them off to Legend, Bowers, or Heritage, or even Ian at Great Collections dot com.... so these gents and ladies can flip them for us.
I think coins are the interest. Hard to have a conflict of interest when hobbyists come together, or when hobbyists take to the trade, as businessmen (professionals) do. We (some of us) may have a conflict, sure... but not a conflict of interest, per se.
To me, it's the hobby which makes the market. The market doesn't necessarily make the hobby. ( Except for promotion/showboating/etc., etc. and those are individuals/ or entities with a vested interest )
The ANA has had dealers on the board for years. We come together there for the same thing: Coins.
And the market may not be so good here, but the hobby is great. A LOT is said here. Little is done here. Most of the market is behind the scene and operated in very stealth mode. (my humble view)
Isn't CACing and dealing a conflict of interest? yes and they want it to be known they do. they support their markets. most important, they really buy back their coins.
@Justacommeman said:
I think you are more likely to be buried $300 at a time then on quality big ticket items. I see this over and over in all markets. Blue ribbon collectibles never go out of style.
Mark
That is true. There will always be a market for blue ribbon collectibles. At some price.
It is true that you are better off with one $100 coin than ten $10 coins and better off with on $1,000 coin than ten $100 coins all the way up to multi million dollar coins. But with two caveats.
First, all markets move up and down, even the best of the best. And secondly, the higher you go in price, the thinner the market gets.
@Justacommeman said:
I think you are more likely to be buried $300 at a time then on quality big ticket items. I see this over and over in all markets. Blue ribbon collectibles never go out of style.
Mark
That is true. There will always be a market for blue ribbon collectibles. At some price.
It is true that you are better off with one $100 coin than ten $10 coins and better off with on $1,000 coin than ten $100 coins all the way up to multi million dollar coins. But with two caveats.
First, all markets move up and down, even the best of the best. And secondly, the higher you go in price, the thinner the market gets.
Just my opinion.
Edited to complete the thought.
I agree with Mark regarding blue ribbon coins but a 20% loss on a $1,000 coin is much easier to absorb than a 20% loss on a $1,000,000 coin.....just some food for thought.
Markets are very finicky concerning what is popular and what is in vogue.
Many times blue ribbon coins break records over time but, sometimes, they don't and they are losers for the consignor.
The finest certified 1787 Brasher Doubloon Realized $4,582,500 and was acquired in the 1980s for $430,000. The seller REALLY made out but was STILL greedily disappointed, as the coin was expected to bring DOUBLE that.
Markets are finicky.........and timing is of the essence.
Fwiw--I'd still rather take my chances with a blue ribbon coin. JMHO.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
@sparky64 said:
" At the time of the beaning........."
Sounds like a solemn event that should be presided by a Priest or Rabbi.
Maybe CAC bathes them in holy water before the beaning... All I know is if the coin isn't blessed and "saved" by CAC, it is pretty much condemned to coin hades more or less or condemned to dreck-dom.
I like gold and silver coins, I like history, I like art and I like physical assets in an ever increasing digital world. Part of what pulled me into coin collecting was to have a store of value, to diversify my net worth and to have some of my assets in something that I had 100% control over. I think as we see more govt intervention, spying, hacking, QE and other digital BS, people will see the value in owning physical assets, bullion being one of the most obvious.
I'm also 28 so I'm "new" compared to you old farts. I have a different view point.
There are 2x more people alive today than 1970, so I see there being more collectors than fewer, even if the percentage # is less. Many of you are saying the sky is falling and that there are no millenial collectors or YN's , but you guys just don't know where to look.
Cycles occur, parts of the coin market are in a down cycle, others are up. Billion id down which affects the lower end. That might change soon...who knows.
This community is not very open to young/newbie collectors for various reasons (many of which you can see in this thread), so YN's and new people don't comment or post as often as they would.
The Us market is clearly a mature segment, so the advent of all of these stickers, toners, Varieties and other hobby add-ons are ways for people to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the end collector, whether they add value or not.
I think on the whole, the world coin market has much more room to appreciate in value over the US coin market.
@ShadyDave said:
I like gold and silver coins, I like history, I like art and I like physical assets in an ever increasing digital world. Part of what pulled me into coin collecting was to have a store of value, to diversify my net worth and to have some of my assets in something that I had 100% control over. I think as we see more govt intervention, spying, hacking, QE and other digital BS, people will see the value in owning physical assets, bullion being one of the most obvious.
I'm also 28 so I'm "new" compared to you old farts. I have a different view point.
There are 2x more people alive today than 1970, so I see there being more collectors than fewer, even if the percentage # is less. Many of you are saying the sky is falling and that there are no millenial collectors or YN's , but you guys just don't know where to look.
Cycles occur, parts of the coin market are in a down cycle, others are up. Billion id down which affects the lower end. That might change soon...who knows.
This community is not very open to young/newbie collectors for various reasons (many of which you can see in this thread), so YN's and new people don't comment or post as often as they would.
The Us market is clearly a mature segment, so the advent of all of these stickers, toners, Varieties and other hobby add-ons are ways for people to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the end collector, whether they add value or not.
I think on the whole, the world coin market has much more room to appreciate in value over the US coin market.
Wow! ShadyDave, Nicely put. I honestly can't find anything in your post that I wouldn't agree with.
Except maybe a spelling error or two. Is that because you are only used to typing with your thumbs?
@coincommando said:
hey rr-last i knew your mentors were 2 of the biggest coin docs. yeah, i'd be braggin that too-not!
Weren't some of the dealers that were outed as coin docs, including some that were in "the lawsuit" also PNG dealers?
edited to fix a spelling error
Wow. Talk about CoinCommando libel calling my early mentors coin docs. My 2 early major dealer mentors were PNG dealers Larry Whitlow and Jay Miller, who both also bid for me when I could not attend major auctions in the pre-PCGS era. I'd be surprised as heck if those guys were ever coin doctors. Though I'm quite sure both of them knew who the major docs all were....just like most major dealers today know who the current docs are. If you don't know who they are, chances are you'll end being an accident victim someday.
@caddyshack said:
Isn't CACing and dealing a conflict of interest? yes and they want it to be known they do. they support their markets. most important, they really buy back their coins.
Not a conflict of interest. They are merely marking up slabbed coins that they would be willing to post bids for and/or buy at some point in the future. They really buy back....some of their coins. If they didn't support the market with a buy back of some sort, the CAC stickers would fetch a lot smaller premium.
CAC can't possibly buy back all the coins they have stickered ($475+) MILL. They don't make a market for every coin they have stickered. They pick and choose which ones they have bids on. As a good example, how about the 1898 PF67+ CAC Barber half you just bought at auction for $18K+? What is CAC's posted bid on that coin considering PCGS price guide is under $10K? I'd bet it's only 1/2 to 2/3 of what you paid. If I were the owner I wouldn't consider that a decent "buy back." If one pays double CAC bid on something, then CAC is really no longer there to support you with a posted bid...unless they make an exception for your coin when seen in person again.
"Honestly, there is probably more negativity on these forums about the hobby than I see anywhere else."
I agree, but quite a few Forum members spend more per coin than most collectors, and spend more time learning about the workings of the business end of the hobby. This can make collectors rather cynical (and perhaps fearful for the future of the hobby and their 'investments'). I include myself in this regard.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@Sonorandesertrat said:
"Honestly, there is probably more negativity on these forums about the hobby than I see anywhere else."
I agree, but quite a few Forum members spend more per coin than most collectors, and spend more time learning about the workings of the business end of the hobby. This can make collectors rather cynical (and perhaps fearful for the future of the hobby and their 'investments'). I include myself in this regard.
Understood, but this hobby extends far, far outside the realm of these forums. It just seems like a lot of people spend more time worrying and being negative on here than enjoying the hobby.
"It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." -- Aristotle
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
Comments
I hesitate to ask this....someone is going to be offended. But honestly, I'm not insinuating anything, since I don't know the answer. Just asking:
When CAC says they will buy any CAC'ed coin...what price level are we talking about? What price guide, newsletter, price quote is the source?
And if it's some source we mere mortals don't have access to...how does it compare to actual retail/auction/wholesale prices?
As you can surmise, I'm trying to figure out if the CAC buyback price is really better than selling in some other manner?
As for the source of pricing information, I think Mr. Albanese makes his own determination. In the past, some of the prices have been close to the Greysheet, but I have also had esoteric items where it appears that CAC may have relied on auction data or at least the offer was closer to a recent auction sale. Whether he used those sources or not, I don't know for sure. I will say that John has always been very fair to me, and I am grateful for all of the offers that I have received and have sold a few coins to CAC.
While I am critical of some of the market effects that I am seeing (which are unintended), my criticisms are really leveled towards human behavior/market participants and not CAC itself.
Not just close. Many of the prices in the greysheet are CAC bids.
My Ebay Store
I was going to say, PCGS CAC prices are now the norm, PCGS non-CAC prices are like the NGC prices before CAC. NGC prices (CAC) are same as PCGS non-CAC, and NGC non-CAC prices are like the old ICG prices.
In the business world we call this birdcage management. You rattle the cage, there is lots of noise and dust and commotion -- people proclaim change or progress but at the end of the day they are the same birds just sitting on different perches.
Gradeflation helped push me away from coins and on to other collectibles recently. Don't have the time or energy to play the gradeflation game.
I don't disagree but that's why I'm so excited when I acquire a coin that's been acknowledged as finest known for decades...so it kind of balances out
Seems to me that everything bad about CAC is the same as we were already getting from PCGS and NGC. The good that came from CAC was a way to keep beanable coins from going down the drain with everything else. But please tell me if I'm missing something.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Any market maker willing to posting tens or hundreds of millions in open bids to purchase PCGS and NGC coins is an incredibly positive and supporting force for the coin market. CAC is just that. At the moment, there isn't any other company willing to post prolific bids across the spectrum of certified coins. Here at CDN we wish there were more players posting bids of any size. THat's what the market needs... and it helps by creating a pricing floor. As others have mentioned CAC leads the market in most of their bids, as well.
Whitman Brands: President/CEO (www.greysheet.com; www.whitman.com)
PNG: Executive Director (www.pngdealers.org)
At the end of the day, CAC will be no different. I have re-submitted two coins to CAC that did not CAC initially, but did after a resubmission (and I don't submit that many coins to CAC). It is all business and they (PCGS, CAC, etc) have to do what they have to do to keep their revenue and profit up. In the short term, gradeflation will make the grading companies money. In the long term, it will ultimately drive people away. Then once everyone is fed up with gradeflation to the point that submissions drop, they will introduce a new grading system that will push/force people to submit coins for regrading under the new system. And the cycle continues.
Maybe something like this?
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
go to coinplex where cac makes hundreds of very real bids
coinplex is a network for large dealers and partners with PNG. The other 99% of the coin collecting world do not have access to that information.
Again, those bids are posted for dealers who have access to coinplex. Others who have stickered coins and have called CAC directly are given individual offers for their coins and as some have posted on this forum, they have been told in some instances that CAC was not buying their particular coins at this time and would make no offer.
That does not make for much of a "market" and does not fit the definition of a market maker.
The market may be down for certain types of coins but good for others. I believe modern bullion coins have probably taken a hit recently. But, if a market is down for a particular type of coin, this could mean bargain pricing. Also, if the market is lack luster for recently released US coins, then this could spell key date high pricing for them down the road. Glass half empty or glass half full?
Sure it does. CAC, along with PCGS/NGC were devised to create a sight unseen dealer to dealer market. They accomplish that. Collectors get the added benefit of a semi standardized grading system and liquidity, but none of these companies were started to help make sure collectors could more easily sell their coins. They were started to attempt to create, stabilize, whatever a "Market" for dealers.
My Ebay Store
In analyzing the pricing of a major advertiser in NN material is priced at CDN Bid + 50% (if I am forced to put out an average). There are very few CAC coins in their ads (and CAC coins a very small portion of certified material on ebay anyway - slightly below 2%). This advertiser prices NGC and PCGS coins essentially the same. If bid goes up, the change is usually reflected in their retail pricing. Sometimes I wonder if NN / CW use the same metric or get their prices from their price lists / ads as seem to match a lot of the time or within say 5%. Obviously their material is in very strong hands and I look at what they are selling a coin for which I may be bidding on to put in my inventory.
To analyze differences in NGC / PCGS CCDN Bid one needs to look at the individual issues involved. Its not something generalizations can be easily made about. Often the NGC and PCGS CCDN Bids are the same across the board unless your moving to high grade big ticket material. You can check your blue sheet if you know what I mean. My professional background is in Accounting - Major Projects Financial Controls, Financial, and Cost plus teaching evening Acctg Classes at a local college awhile back so I am always looking for some metric or as an auditor where is dealer Y (who I consider at the top of the game) relative to x. To drill down further I may look at the coin on their website and c if its as nice as the one in my inventory or bidding on. There are many resources in this electronic age and many can be easily done from smart phone.
Sunday morning you will find me with coffee looking for pickoffs (before the west coast wakes up) or analyzing some dealers ad and material from an audit sample......
In gauging the market I would suggest you take the Kitco Prices for gold and silver track them about a benchmark say Jan 01-2017 and do the same for the PCGS 3000 Index. Everybody has their spiel about the market and how their inventory is so wonderful and the market up for it but what I am interested is what do the numbers say I can verify from independent sources.
Forget what the Gem Saint market would look like without CAC, let's look at what it actually has become with them. CAC stickers approx 5% of MS65 or higher generic Saints. That means 95% of them are now considered low end or next grade down. They trade like 64+ coins with very small premiums to 64's. The non-CAC 66's trade like CAC 65's. 5% of this market is now supported by CAC and its dealer network. The other 95% is in the toilet. More "unintended consequences." CAC's 5% rate on gem gold doesn't occur in any other choice/gem MS type coin that I'm aware of. It never happened with MS65 Morgans where the same potential existed. I wonder why they chose to accept 5% of gem $20's yet 30-45% of gem MS65 generic Morgans? Certainly 95% of the >100,000 MS65 Morgans in slabs can't all be "problem" coins.
And to answer CC's original question in another way. With CAC only approving 5% of the generic gem $20's market, they are leaving the other 95% of it in whatever shape it morphs too. Which has been to the basement. Still, if there are abuses in the gem Saints, if only 5% are getting "selected," the other 95% can still run wild and provide whatever profits the coin marketeers dictate. How can you police 5% of a market and expect anything but chaos? What if CAC decided that rub on MS draped bust or capped bust coinage was no longer acceptable? And chose to only sticker 5% of Mint State coins? Would we then say "god only knows what MS bust coinage would look like today without CAC?" I think not. While this does create stability and confidence in THEIR 5% market, it doesn't do much at all for the other 95%. In fact all we know about that 95% is that they are not CAC worthy....which seems to be all anyone cares about. Certainly some of those 95% would be "strong" low end coins. But anything not meeting the CAC MS65.40 standard (ie MS65.3's) are tossed out. Slabbed MS65's that range from MS64.5 to MS65.3 are all treated basically the same when they didn't sticker.
_I wonder why they chose to accept 5% of gem $20's yet 30-45% of gem MS65 generic Morgans? _
You really don't know? It's because in order to promote 'trade your coins for bullion' the bullion has to have significant numismatic premium. MS65 is where that kicks in for Saints. There is TREMENDOUS pressure to overgrade Saints because promoters NEED the grade on the label more than they need the quality of the coin.
Yeah, I've looked at what was in the holders quite closely. I traded almost exclusively in ch/gem gold from 2006-2011 during that final run up. On one CAC submission for a client in Dec 2008, we went through 250 MS65 Saints (an even TPG mix) that they hand picked during the 1998-2006 period, rejecting at least half of what they were offered for dipping, too many marks, bad color, etc. We only picked the best 115 or so MS65 Saints to submit not wanting to waste as much time. Before going in, I honestly felt 30-60% of these coins would sticker based on CAC's results on other gem coins. Out of that group only 6 stickered....5-6%. There were also dozens of rattler, ogh, and old fatty 61-64 $20's...many of them very solid if not pq-ish. Only 40% of those stickered which sort of shocked me too. Any obvious upgrade potential coins from that hoard were sent to the TPG's earlier and about 1/2-2/3 did upgrade.
So in a way, by the client originally rejecting 1/2 the saints offered, and only then picking the best 1/2 to send in, and then getting a 6% sticker rate, you could almost say the "net" rate was really 1.5%. Of the 6 out of 115 MS65 Saints that stickered, I didn't see 3 of them being any better than the rejects. Could be that CAC was really tough in late 2008. Haven't tried them recently on a large group of 65's. I still have the CAC invoices from 2008 to show what transpired. I don't know what other people's experiences are, but this was a 1.5-6% rate on 115-250+ coins depending on your view. As of today, CAC has stickered approximately 5,000 or so MS65 Saints....5% of the PCGS pops. NGC probably has 100K as well. So with resubmissions, figure 100K between them still in holders. So that 5% figure is probably going to rise as more coins get submitted. The rate could be from 5-15%. I personally saw 6%.
Does anyone disagree that as a general rule (there are always exceptions ) that CAC saints are nicer than the vast majority of non CAC saints of the same grade ? And if so, shouldn't they trade for a premium.
Whatever you say CC...lol. I guess looking through thousands of $20's didn't matter. Now tell us your personal, skin in the game experiences with submitting large quantities of MS65 or better $20s to CAC. We're all ears around here.
Fwiw, how do you explain an at best 6% rate on 250 coins? I didn't put them into those holders. PCGS and NGC did. I only picked the best coins out of that group to see how they would do. How is that "my" problem. That makes me a "bad" grader? You're just too funny. You have an "answer" for everything...even if they NEVER make any sense. Keep trying. Wait, wait I have it. Had I sent in the other 135 coins that I didn't select....those would have stickered at a 30-40% rate, right? LOL. CC falls on their sword again. Talks a big market game....has no experiences to relate with us. Sad.
It is too bad that this isn't the case. Friction/rub is friction/rub regardless of whether it is from a collector's coin cabinet or album slide marks or from light circulation. The problem is that the grading services no longer grade coins; they attempt to price them and award an equivalent "grade" based on perceived value that may or may not be supported by the coin's technical details. If the argument is that some AU coins should be worth more than low MS coins and that the services are merely compensating, rather than playing games and marketing hype like "cabinet friction" or "shipwreck effect" the grading scale should be revisited IMHO. It appears that the market is doing just fine sorting through AU coins that should sell for MS money despite the lower grade. Look no further than capped bust coinage. Eye appealing AU58s often sell for low MS money.
I'm sorry for the tangent.
I don't agree regarding CAC. CAC doesn't charge collectors for coins that don't sticker. I happen to be a collector, and I too have had coins that failed CAC initially sticker upon resubmission. There is no economic incentive for this. CAC also makes a tiny amount on stickering. Actually, CAC probably loses money considering all of the labor, notes and calls with collectors/dealers, etc. CAC's money comes from flipping CAC certified coins that it purchases.
Another CAC factoid. They've stickered 27 total 1908 NM Saints in MS67. Most of these are probably from the WF hoard for which PCGS listed 695 of them on the Oct 1998 pop report. No matter how you slice that up right now, it's a 3.9% rate. And I would imagine most anyone owning a 1908 NM MS67 Saint, has tried to get it stickered by now because of the huge premium that would result from a $10-$15 sticker. How about the 100 or so 1908 NM MS68 Saints, all from WF? CAC hasn't stickered a single coin....0% rate. What was CC saying earlier? That CAC is not too tough, it's just our problem? And I'm a bad grader. LOL. And those WF saints were graded back in the early 1990's...long before the Saint gradeflation got underway. According to DH there were approx 1,000 PCGS MS67's originally which would drop the sticker rate down to 2.7%. There were 10 MS69's too....no doubt no stickers on those in our future.
I realize JA probably doesn't like 1908 NM saints possibly because of the strike or stacking issues, and many dealers don't either. But couldn't just 1 out of 100 MS68's warrant a sticker? Why only a 3% sticker rate of MS65 WF Saints which were all put away decades ago and never saw the light of day until the early 1990's? Even a fresh hoard just as like being minted yesterday can't sticker better than 3%. And then my own experiences above netting a 1.5% rate...with a max of 6%. This is today's Saint market that CoinCommando has stated CAC has made better and safer for all of us. Well, maybe better for those that owned the 6%. Not so good for anyone with the other 94%.
CAC is in business for themselves. They can sticker at any rate they want for any coins. That's their right. They've done plenty of good things. There are also unintended consequences as no "good deed" goes unpunished. From everything I've seen though, CAC is more than tough enough on gem gold $20's. It's not my problem.
My guess is that most of 27 1908 NM Saints were not from the Wells Fargo hoard at least based on some of the low end examples I have seen. My opinion is that the hoard was graded generously.
Of course. I've consistently stated since 2009 that CAC MS65 Saints look very much like MS66 generic ones. They have traded for similar money in the past. They deserve a premium...especially since they are the best 5-15% of the breed in JA's opinion. Now what about the other 85-95% of the market? How does any part of the coin market benefit by rejecting up to 95% of supply? Just asking here as I'd like to know what the overall market benefit to anyone but CAC has been by raising the 5% at the expense of the 95%. Have the TPG's now altered their grading over the past 8 yrs to agree with CAC so that everyone's standards align again?
Saints are where you really see the CAC difference. Night vs Day. This was the most abused area of over gradiing. Low CAC acceptence doesn't surprise me.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
Weren't some of the dealers that were outed as coin docs, including some that were in "the lawsuit" also PNG dealers?
edited to fix a spelling error
While non CAC coins are selling lower, one of the benefits of non CAC is less volatility. Non CAC coins have all moved lower and the trading range is narrower/more defined vs. CAC coins, which sell for all over-the-place money (often irrationally). One AU58 CAC sells for $4k and another AU58 CAC sells for $6.9k. That is too much volatility for every day John/Jane Doe collector...
The lower end collector actually has more downside protection with non CAC coins since non CAC coins are already trading lower and in a much narrower/tighter band, and upside opportunity since the non CAC coins might eventually sticker and even upgrade, while CAC coins have less upside potential, since they are already much more expensive, and more downside exposure since often "better" CAC coins can be had.
Anyhow, just wanted to point out this observation from a different perspective...
That CDN appears to assume CAC Saints are nicer in posting higher bids for them in grades MS63 and above. I have to look at the individual coin myself and would not just automatically pick something just bc it has a sticker.
You're right. When the numismatic premium completely disappears for non CAC coins, there is definitely less volatility in their liquidity so as long as the precious metal market plays along. Once you hit a certain low, there isn't much farther to fall. I don't see this as an optimistic message.
No because they don't sticker their own inventory. They review coins from others and if the coins are subsequently presented for sale, CAC will make an offer. At the time of the beaning, someone else owns the piece and CAC has no matured pecuinary interest.
" At the time of the beaning........."
Sounds like a solemn event that should be presided by a Priest or Rabbi.
"If I say something in the woods and my wife isn't there to hear it.....am I still wrong?"
My Washington Quarter Registry set...in progress
There is no doubt the Coin Market is in the tank and Currency is much worse. Why all this talk about CAC, - has nothing to do with the real coin market (as reflected by bullion indexes, PCGS 3000, and retail sales market wide) and is completely out of other numismatic areas like mods, world, and currency, CAC is a very small portion of items on ebay. Lets face it, many are not going to spend over $300 for a numismatic purchase whether its lack of money or competition from entertainment venues. Many advertisers in NN, Coin World have little or no CAC material and probably could care less. One rather large advertiser in NN, I have seen only about 1 or 2 CAC coins in their hundreds of items which can't all be reflected in one issue - they sure are not worried about CAC.
Sometimes things reach a point where they have basically seen their day. It could be a career that flaked out ruined by the oil crunch and age bias, a relationship one thought would be good for life, or a physical function eroded by the aging process as the function prolonging drugs no longer work.
I am not willing to say this for numismatics, but have decided to stay inventory / numismatic business neutral - no increase or decrease in investment. I am sure this years results will make a good impact on my Schedule C Tax Shelter.
If your buried in numismatic coins Richard Nachbar had an impressive ad in coin world he will buy your numismatic coins your buried in so you can in to go into Gold. He had an impressive historical gold chart showing we are on second leg of upward trend. I cut it out and put in my notebook.
I do agree with his premise and sadly many are buried in big ticket coins (CAC or not) that they probably would not get 60-80% of what they are in them, I see this happening all the time on the bourse at shows.
I do spend over $300 in intems: Usually slabbed World Gold, MS69 AGE, AGB, quality large size certified currency (so much rarer than coins). As far as the average show attendee big spenders can be rarer than the coins and in a room with over 100 competing dealers good luck.
My opinions on the market are my own (online store, table at shows) and mainly based on performance of the PCGS 3000 index and Kitco (Gold, Silver, Platinum) tracked over time - verifiable data.
I think you are more likely to be buried $300 at a time then on quality big ticket items. I see this over and over in all markets. Blue ribbon collectibles never go out of style.
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
The market > @elmiracoin said:
No more than submitting coins to be graded and selling them on eBay or shuffling them off to Legend, Bowers, or Heritage, or even Ian at Great Collections dot com.... so these gents and ladies can flip them for us.
I think coins are the interest. Hard to have a conflict of interest when hobbyists come together, or when hobbyists take to the trade, as businessmen (professionals) do. We (some of us) may have a conflict, sure... but not a conflict of interest, per se.
To me, it's the hobby which makes the market. The market doesn't necessarily make the hobby. ( Except for promotion/showboating/etc., etc. and those are individuals/ or entities with a vested interest )
The ANA has had dealers on the board for years. We come together there for the same thing: Coins.
And the market may not be so good here, but the hobby is great. A LOT is said here. Little is done here. Most of the market is behind the scene and operated in very stealth mode. (my humble view)
Isn't CACing and dealing a conflict of interest? yes and they want it to be known they do. they support their markets. most important, they really buy back their coins.
That is true. There will always be a market for blue ribbon collectibles. At some price.
It is true that you are better off with one $100 coin than ten $10 coins and better off with on $1,000 coin than ten $100 coins all the way up to multi million dollar coins. But with two caveats.
First, all markets move up and down, even the best of the best. And secondly, the higher you go in price, the thinner the market gets.
Just my opinion.
Edited to complete the thought.
I agree with Mark regarding blue ribbon coins but a 20% loss on a $1,000 coin is much easier to absorb than a 20% loss on a $1,000,000 coin.....just some food for thought.
Markets are very finicky concerning what is popular and what is in vogue.
Many times blue ribbon coins break records over time but, sometimes, they don't and they are losers for the consignor.
The finest certified 1787 Brasher Doubloon Realized $4,582,500 and was acquired in the 1980s for $430,000. The seller REALLY made out but was STILL greedily disappointed, as the coin was expected to bring DOUBLE that.
Markets are finicky.........and timing is of the essence.
Fwiw--I'd still rather take my chances with a blue ribbon coin. JMHO.
“I may not believe in myself but I believe in what I’m doing” ~Jimmy Page~
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
Maybe CAC bathes them in holy water before the beaning... All I know is if the coin isn't blessed and "saved" by CAC, it is pretty much condemned to coin hades more or less or condemned to dreck-dom.
I like gold and silver coins, I like history, I like art and I like physical assets in an ever increasing digital world. Part of what pulled me into coin collecting was to have a store of value, to diversify my net worth and to have some of my assets in something that I had 100% control over. I think as we see more govt intervention, spying, hacking, QE and other digital BS, people will see the value in owning physical assets, bullion being one of the most obvious.
I'm also 28 so I'm "new" compared to you old farts. I have a different view point.
There are 2x more people alive today than 1970, so I see there being more collectors than fewer, even if the percentage # is less. Many of you are saying the sky is falling and that there are no millenial collectors or YN's , but you guys just don't know where to look.
Cycles occur, parts of the coin market are in a down cycle, others are up. Billion id down which affects the lower end. That might change soon...who knows.
This community is not very open to young/newbie collectors for various reasons (many of which you can see in this thread), so YN's and new people don't comment or post as often as they would.
The Us market is clearly a mature segment, so the advent of all of these stickers, toners, Varieties and other hobby add-ons are ways for people to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the end collector, whether they add value or not.
I think on the whole, the world coin market has much more room to appreciate in value over the US coin market.
Anyone checked their price lists on pcgs lately? I have seen major downward moves.
http://www.pcgs.com/SetRegistry/publishedset.aspx?s=142753
https://www.autismforums.com/media/albums/acrylic-colors-by-rocco.291/
...or perhaps a mohel.
Wow! ShadyDave, Nicely put. I honestly can't find anything in your post that I wouldn't agree with.
Except maybe a spelling error or two. Is that because you are only used to typing with your thumbs?
Old farts, indeed.
Wow. Talk about CoinCommando libel calling my early mentors coin docs. My 2 early major dealer mentors were PNG dealers Larry Whitlow and Jay Miller, who both also bid for me when I could not attend major auctions in the pre-PCGS era. I'd be surprised as heck if those guys were ever coin doctors. Though I'm quite sure both of them knew who the major docs all were....just like most major dealers today know who the current docs are. If you don't know who they are, chances are you'll end being an accident victim someday.
Not a conflict of interest. They are merely marking up slabbed coins that they would be willing to post bids for and/or buy at some point in the future. They really buy back....some of their coins. If they didn't support the market with a buy back of some sort, the CAC stickers would fetch a lot smaller premium.
CAC can't possibly buy back all the coins they have stickered ($475+) MILL. They don't make a market for every coin they have stickered. They pick and choose which ones they have bids on. As a good example, how about the 1898 PF67+ CAC Barber half you just bought at auction for $18K+? What is CAC's posted bid on that coin considering PCGS price guide is under $10K? I'd bet it's only 1/2 to 2/3 of what you paid. If I were the owner I wouldn't consider that a decent "buy back." If one pays double CAC bid on something, then CAC is really no longer there to support you with a posted bid...unless they make an exception for your coin when seen in person again.
Glad I mostly got out of collecting in 2009-10, but I find this thread to be well worth the read. Thanks to all.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I will reiterate that this hobby is so much bigger than these messages boards or the network of collectors who travel the show/auction circuit.
It is amazing how many times I have to answer the question in response to a Coin World ad "what is this CAC thing?"
A lot of collectors out there just enjoy the hobby, like coins and like collecting (I do as it relates to my Nationals Banknote collection).
Honestly, there is probably more negativity on these forums about the hobby than I see anywhere else.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
"Honestly, there is probably more negativity on these forums about the hobby than I see anywhere else."
I agree, but quite a few Forum members spend more per coin than most collectors, and spend more time learning about the workings of the business end of the hobby. This can make collectors rather cynical (and perhaps fearful for the future of the hobby and their 'investments'). I include myself in this regard.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Understood, but this hobby extends far, far outside the realm of these forums. It just seems like a lot of people spend more time worrying and being negative on here than enjoying the hobby.
For a large selection of U.S. Coins & Currency, visit The Reeded Edge's online webstore at the link below.
The Reeded Edge
Shortgapbob,
We agree on that score too. I derive more enjoyment from my numismatic library nowadays than from my coins.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]