"Yeah, you gotta crack 'em to get the downgrade. A service will not downgrade its coins because it would cost guaranty dollars. "
Wrong again. These downgrades do occur; they are infrequent largely because few owners seek them, preferring to accept reduced liquidity instead of a lower nominal market value that would come with a reduced grade.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
Lots of great and insightful posts in this thread...I have learned so much about numismatics and much more from @BillJones, @oldgoldlover, @boosibri, @roadrunner, @legendcoins and others...thanks for taking the time to post!!!
I strongly believe that most coin collectors embrace the hobby with the expectation that they will at least 'break even' when they sell, in contrast with other hobbies like golf. The 'lunacy' in the numismatic hobby, along with the inability of most collectors to fully understand what they are buying, does mean that the vast majority---I would say at least 95 percent---of coin collectors will lose money when they sell numismatic items. People who make money in this environment embrace the lunacy, and use it to their advantage. This requires serious, constant study.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
There is another way to look at this, elmiracoin. Coin collectors were usually losing money 40-50 years ago, as my grandmother was careful to teach me. Just because most people lose money engaging in a pastime doesn't mean that it will necessarily vanish---look at casinos. I do think that the situation facing most collectors is worsening, in part because the widespread acceptance of CAC as THE indicator of quality is slowly reducing non-CACed coins to untouchable status in the eyes of collectors who can afford to spend more than $1K per coin.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
No hobbyist who simply enjoys coin ownership needs to buy already beaned coins. I have been buying raw U.S. coins, tokens and medals for years, and also removing coins from NGC/PCGS slabs. Plus grades are not a significant problem either---look upon them as intermediate grades, like 53,55,58 between 50 and 60. The real problems are lack of consistent grading (which does lead to gradeflation if there is no real danger that a grade review could lead to a downgrade) and increasingly clever alterations of various kinds.
Successfully investing in coins is MUCH more difficult that merely buying them. Investing and collecting are very different animals. Real investors will resist the temptation to fall in love with their coins---what matters for them is ROI, which may mean selling something a few hours after buying it, if a profit can be made. Most collectors do not take the time to develop an understanding of the business end of the hobby; a lone-wolf investor would get skinned alive if he made this mistake.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@Sonorandesertrat said:
TI do think that the situation facing most collectors is worsening, in part because the widespread acceptance of CAC as THE indicator of quality is slowly reducing non-CACed coins to untouchable status in the eyes of collectors who can afford to spend more than $1K per coin.
We disagree..CAC is a for profit enterprise that has damaged the rare con market and diminished the joy of collecting IMO.
In reality, I view CAC as an equivalent to a plus grade, which also discourages hobbyists and investors who enjoy coin ownership.
It sounds to me like you two actually agree. While CAC has likely helped the hobby in many ways coins that don't have the companies approval are gradually decreasing in value. Many people assume that any coin that doesn't have the sticker has been to CAC and failed. Just like I hear people say on here all the time " if expensive coins aren't in a top tpg holder there is a reason"
Totally excluding the idea that some collectors prefer raw coins.
I know one club member that immediately cracks any slabbed coins he buys and puts them in an album. And his collection ranges from the low 3 figures to the mid to high 4 figures.
one of the biggest misconceptions of CAC imo is that every coin should sticker at some grade. If it doesn't have the look that the graders at CAC prefer there is little chance they will approve it. When it comes to the bottom line, yes they are stickering coins they feel are strong for the grade but they are also making a market in all coins they sticker. If they don't want to be on the hook to make an offer at some future date because they just don't like the coin, it's not likely it will sticker no matter how accurately graded
To get back on topic I think the market is weaker than it was a couple years ago for most of the stuff I sell. I typically deal in lower end coins. Rare or better date seated in circulated grades seem to still be pretty strong and moves pretty quickly. Most common stuff has been semi stagnant and recognizing this I blew out a lot of dead inventory last year to start rebuilding. The problem I've been having though is buying anything I like at what I think are wholesale prices.
I haven't been able to buy coins from any vest pocket dealers in my area because their idea of wholesale right now seems higher than what I see as retail. But I don't have as big a customer base as the other dealers posted about in this thread.
I have great respect for Laura and what she has built, but I do not see how she can simply dismiss the observations of other dealers and market participants (like the OP). Her niche (Tier I and upper Tier II of the ryk trifurcation) is on fire--I get that. PTVetter's coin shop and local coin show-centric world (lower Tier II and Tier III) is in the doldrums. Both opinions, based on their own personal observations of their own businesses, can be correct.
RYK,
I largely agree with what you just wrote. In her defense, she is careful to note in her Market Reports that her opinions represent her own (written on behalf of Legend). Views of different sectors of the numismatic market should not be expected to coincide.
However, an awful lot of the coins in the marketplace will never see the light of CAC---are there enough buyers for these? Right now, I don't think so. Bullion-related trading (including buying old jewelry and silver flatware) saved the day for many small dealers. If those types of trades slow down enough, we will see business closures in meaningful numbers.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
@Sonorandesertrat said:
RYK,
I largely agree with what you just wrote. In her defense, she is careful to note in her Market Reports that her opinions represent her own (written on behalf of Legend). Views of different sectors of the numismatic market should not be expected to coincide.
However, an awful lot of the coins in the marketplace will never see the light of CAC---are there enough buyers for these? Right now, I don't think so. Bullion-related trading (including buying old jewelry and silver flatware) saved the day for many small dealers. If those types of trades slow down enough, we will see business closures in meaningful numbers.
I agree. "The market" is the amalgamation of the experiences of all of the participants in the market. Yes, Laura's contribution to "the market" is orders of magnitude greater than ryk's contribution, but it does not mean that whether ryk has trouble selling a crusty, old gold coin for 50% PCGS price guide or easily sells it for 200% price guide has no bearing on "the market". Or any other attempted or completed transaction by any participant.
I don't look at a CAC sticker as a "plus" grade personally. That would make an already graded plus coin with sticker a grade higher wouldn't it? Or two pluses..... Anyway my old boss used to say figures lie and liars figure... One cannot speak of the coin market as one whole, to many moving parts, some up, some down, some stagnate... Just my opinion.
I am amused that she probably only sees the top 5% of the market and then makes broad pronouncements about the entire market while ignoring the other 95%.
This is typically splashed in red across the top of her market reports:
THIS REPORT CONTAINS OBSERVATIONS AND FACTS FROM LEGEND NUMISMATICS AND LEGEND AUCTIONS BUSINESS AND OBSERVATIONS AT THE SHOW. OTHERS (ESPECIALLY NOT IN OUR AREAS) WILL HAVE DIFFERENT REPORTS
Then who is she to characterize some of the posters here in a derogatory fashion? I have purchased many coins, including some from Legend, that have undoubtedly gone down in value since the pieces were purchased in the past (e.g. proof cameo liberty head nickel). Are these now dreck and numismatic slop? I don't think so.
I respect Laura, but she really does need to tone it down. On a positive note, it does look like the post may have been edited to tone it down a notch.
Laura is who she is and I'm personally thankful for it. Her passion and heart is the right place. The hobby is a much better place with her in it. If any hobby needs its feathers ruffled this is it.
She will never win a spelling bee but she sure can raise the torch to carry the good fight on behalf of collectors. So often people dwell on the little things and miss the big picture.
mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm Laura's customer for the last three years, and can't argue with what she's said in her reports. I'm not promoting her business, just saying if I was not happy, I'd be gone.
Imagine the bad taste it would leave in a novice collectors mouth when they try to sell some of their coins... "Oh, no sticker, no this, no that? I can only offer you $xxxx"
@oldgoldlover said:
I have no idea what and when rare coin prices firm up. I buy the best I can provided it has a low pop. It seems when a rare coin hit the sweet spot on the grade its price gets high. I check the NGC and PCGS pop numbers and find out the grade when the shows an upswing relative to the grade below it. I am trying to get early dollars now as the market for them has been down. I am in it for the long haul and try to stick with a grade that is tough to find. I think the best time to buy assets is when nobody else wants to own them, stocks or coins. I am resigned top the fact that markets cannot be timed and quality wins over time. I got out of school when the energy industry was booming in 1979 and saw it grow until 10/1981. All the sudden oil prices dropping caused the wave to break and break it did. Nobody forecast it. Same goes for the tech bust or 2008 meltdown. The higher the wave the harder it falls. After experiencing this I feel market dips offer opportunity. I don't deal in rare coins but very much enjoy collecting them when the right RARE coin shows up at a market price. I the branch mint gold coins I have dipped in 2008 but have recovered to the pre bust price with minimal exception. If they have not I am not a buyer. As far as the guru forecasters that try to sell you their stock market timing rag news letter are more often wrong than right. Same goes for coin forecast. I allocate 15% of my financial assets in coins and the rest quality stocks. I adjust this allocation annually. It takes the emotion out of buying and selling and forces you to take some profit on a run up and buy when another asset class is down. The people that bought Texas real estate from the banks the foreclosed on the debt in the 1980s made a tremendous amount of money 10 years later. Much real estate was bought from the FDIC as all the large regional banks failed during the 1980s. The smaller banks were already six feet under. Never forget a broken watch is right twice a day and that is more than I can say about the " Wall Street " gurus.
Great post, but you should learn to use paragraphs so your great comments will be readable. Such as:
Quote:
I have no idea what and when rare coin prices firm up. I buy the best I can provided it has a low pop.
It seems when a rare coin hit the sweet spot on the grade its price gets high. I check the NGC and PCGS pop numbers and find out the grade when the shows an upswing relative to the grade below it.
I am trying to get early dollars now as the market for them has been down. I am in it for the long haul and try to stick with a grade that is tough to find.
I think the best time to buy assets is when nobody else wants to own them, stocks or coins. I am resigned top the fact that markets cannot be timed and quality wins over time.
I got out of school when the energy industry was booming in 1979 and saw it grow until 10/1981. All the sudden oil prices dropping caused the wave to break and break it did. Nobody forecast it. Same goes for the tech bust or 2008 meltdown. The higher the wave the harder it falls. After experiencing this I feel market dips offer opportunity.
I don't deal in rare coins but very much enjoy collecting them when the right RARE coin shows up at a market price. I the branch mint gold coins I have dipped in 2008 but have recovered to the pre bust price with minimal exception. If they have not I am not a buyer.
As far as the guru forecasters that try to sell you their stock market timing rag news letter are more often wrong than right. Same goes for coin forecast. I allocate 15% of my financial assets in coins and the rest quality stocks. I adjust this allocation annually. It takes the emotion out of buying and selling and forces you to take some profit on a run up and buy when another asset class is down.
The people that bought Texas real estate from the banks the foreclosed on the debt in the 1980s made a tremendous amount of money 10 years later. Much real estate was bought from the FDIC as all the large regional banks failed during the 1980s. The smaller banks were already six feet under.
Never forget a broken watch is right twice a day and that is more than I can say about the " Wall Street " gurus.
Unquote
.......
I understand the boom or bust mentality.
Buy low, sell high!
I post and look at other collects comments to learn about coins. I just don't bother with form over substance.
@roadrunner said:
Second Rule of Fight Club. Don't believe everything you read in Dealer Market Reports, especially once they divert into gold, silver, economics and Wall Street. Consider it entertainment and not much else.
I watch the Andy Griffith show or Mash. More entertaining and I frankly it is time better spent as any one that has it figured out is not going to offer such information to the public. As I said previously a broken clock is correct twice daily. Cannot say the same for anyone trying to forecast a market or markets that have never been able to to date.
Frankly if I see a dealer offering coins via TV I would be more apt to sell these if I had them. Any coin that is offered to the public is stale inventory IMO as they are paying to get viewing time and the cost rolled into the coin.
@Boosibri said:
I really respect Laura for her eye and role in the hobby.
Sometimes the thin skin though reminds me of Trump as president tweeting about Arnold Swartzenegger and the Apprentice ratings. Both demean their stature in their roles.
The similarities don't end there. I still have and treasure my "Vote for Laura" button.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'm always interested, and somewhat amused, when folks discuss the state of "markets" in stocks, real Estate, and coins, among others, and the direction of "averages ".
The aggregate statistical data is nice, but the specific assets have unique qualities. Thanks for the sector color from your specialties.
I'm not seeing declines in problem free pre 1815 type coins, if you do, please point me in the direction of the sale.
All of this is lunacy IMO, along with the gradeinflation, cracking, crossing, doctoring, cleaning, dipping, processing, artificial toning, puttying, lasering, "+' and "*" grades, CACs & eagle eyes, and all that other stuff, ad nauseam has dealt a death blow to an ageing hobby/business.
No wonder the coin market has gone down considerably. Who in his or her right mind wants to deal with all this lunacy in a supposed hobby?
Who? I would guess it is the dealers who know how to play this game and make a heck of a lot of money.
@Boosibri said:
I really respect Laura for her eye and role in the hobby.
Sometimes the thin skin though reminds me of Trump as president tweeting about Arnold Swartzenegger and the Apprentice ratings. Both demean their stature in their roles.
The similarities don't end there. I still have and treasure my "Vote for Laura" button.
How about a Mr Eureka 2018 "Make Coins Great Again" running platform?
I'd have to agree with Baley, at least in spirit. But problem free and orig pre-1815 type coins are almost like unicorns. Those might make up 5-10% of that total market. I have a tough time calling any early bust coinage as problem-free. I've owned a number of nice ones, but can't think of any I could truly call "without problems." I understand that what constitutes a "quality" coin today seems to be an ever shrinking sub-set....at least since 1989.
I've owned some "unicorns" that to me were problem free coins, and coins I'd hunted for over 20 yrs before they dropped into my lap. One, an honest to goodness original gem MS65 seated dollar and a real MS63 1839 no drapery half dollar with full luster and zero rub. An impossible coin. Yet when showing those around to my local dealers to show them something special, all they could see was a minute cut on Liberty's breast (the reason it wasn't a MS66) and seeing typical strike issues on the 1839 as "rub" and hence at best AU55. That's what we're dealing with. Fwiw, both coins ended up in the finest collections of their kind. I want perfection and problem-free too....whatever that means to each of us. But in a way, it has gotten out of hand....to the detriment of decent coins that make up the other 90% of our market. This quest for perfect, problem-free as the only thing "good enough" (and CAC, +, star, low pop, finest known, and other things all play into this) ....has gotten to extremes. Though I'm sure it will get only get more extreme.
Look - a crappy ms65 1870 seated dollar at the time would have sold for like $15k - I stepped up and paid double that. The fact is that bad for the grade coins impair the liquidity of great for the grade coins. CAC is the equalizer in that regard.
But in a way, it has gotten out of hand....to the detriment of decent coins that make up the other 90% of our market. This quest for perfect, problem-free as the only thing "good enough" (and CAC, +, star, low pop, finest known, and other things all play into this) ....has gotten to extremes. Though I'm sure it will get only get more extreme.
Well said - - it is extreme and nonsensical.
CAC only means solid for the grade. Not sure how perfect even comes into play. Recognizing problem-free is a good thing right? So that only leaves plus grades and * ( NGC only )and that is
ruining the hobby for you and is extreme and nonsensical? Not following
Mark
Walker Proof Digital Album Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
@tradedollarnut said:
Look - a crappy ms65 1870 seated dollar at the time would have sold for like $15k - I stepped up and paid double that. The fact is that bad for the grade coins impair the liquidity of great for the grade coins. CAC is the equalizer in that regard.
I never saw a crappy PCGS MS65 seated dollar from 1986-2003, before I bought that PCGS MS65. PCGS held the line on gem MS65 seated dollars better than on almost any single coin I can think of. NGC did not. I could see an NGC MS65 seated dollar trading for $15K at that time and maybe today too. The first time I saw what I felt was not an all there PCGS MS65 seated dollar was the 1857 Queller (2003) coin. I graded the raw dipped coin 64+ (shot coin) with obv hairlines and passed on it at the auction when it got over the $20K level. It ended up going PCGS MS65. In fact Larry Whitlow ended up with it and tried to sell it to me for $27K, not knowing I had bid on the coin. I had no interest in a 64++ at that level. TDN and I agree that the 1870 MS65 dollar was all there....and within 3 yrs it was worth 2X what he paid for it...as we both sort of anticipated. And the CDN price of the time around $20K for type was really absurd considering the pops had barely increased since 1989 when they were $55K-$65K each. They were an opportunity in the waiting to recover their 1989 prices. The hard part was finding them.
@Justacommeman said:
CAC only means solid for the grade. Not sure how perfect even comes into play. Recognizing problem-free is a good thing right? So that only leaves plus grades and * ( NGC only )and that is
ruining the hobby for you and is extreme and nonsensical? Not following
Mark
Mark, there are lots of "levels" of problem-free. Many, even CAC in some instance have taken it to some very stringent levels. For one, how about MS65 Saints and $20 Libs where only 5% of the coins sticker? It's their right to choose to do that. But that right has blighted the other 95% of the slabbed $20's and helped crush their prices. Good thing they didn't decide to apply a 5% rule to say Gem Commems or Gem Bust halves. My point about "problem-free" above was the essentially problem free 1870 MS65 dollar with a tiny tick on the breast from MS66. I got more negative comments on that coin than positive ones, with most everyone noting the "big" cut on the breast...the only mark of note on the coin (ie "that would be really nice coin IF not for that mark"). The coin was superb in all other respects (it's now a 65+). And TDN knew that and paid accordingly...even if 95% of our participants can only focus on a single minor "cut."
There's a growing crowd for essentially "perfect" coins....which to me means problem free to the nth degree....the top 1-5% of all coins. CAC is a significant reason for that growth. CAC may have intended to mean "solid for the grade"....but it floats. And it will continue to float with the market and its associated risks. Is it really possible that only 5% of slabbed MS65/66 Saints are "solid for the grade" or legitimate "B" coins? I'll also note that of the over 100 MS68 Saints that are graded....not a single coin is yet stickered....meaning every one is not solid for the grade. What does the lack of stickering do to those coins? It crushes their price. Why not a more reasonable 20-30% sticker rate? Were the $20's gradeflation that horrible? I don't think it was 95% bad...but I'm not JA and it's his money on the line...not mine. I don't fault him in any way. I only report on the fallout or "unintended" consequences....such as ALL NGC coins being tossed out with the bathwater.
@Baley said:
I'm always interested, and somewhat amused, when folks discuss the state of "markets" in stocks, real Estate, and coins, among others, and the direction of "averages ".
The aggregate statistical data is nice, but the specific assets have unique qualities. Thanks for the sector color from your specialties.
I'm not seeing declines in problem free pre 1815 type coins, if you do, please point me in the direction of the sale.
Early federal coinage was listed as a notable exception to the market woes that later 19th century and 20th century issues are experiencing. It is a small segment of the entire U.S. coin market.
Since following all of these (varied and informative) points of view on the market,I would find it very difficult to explain this market(grading,pricing,doctoring,auction antics, etc.) to a newbie wanting to enter the hobby. Especially one who is looking for standardization within the hobby. Could even be discouraging to same. Probably, I'd have to recommend them joining this forum and let them sort it out for themselves, and hope they can sort through the muddle until they reach collecting nirvana.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
But in a way, it has gotten out of hand....to the detriment of decent coins that make up the other 90% of our market. This quest for perfect, problem-free as the only thing "good enough" (and CAC, +, star, low pop, finest known, and other things all play into this) ....has gotten to extremes. Though I'm sure it will get only get more extreme.
Well said - - it is extreme and nonsensical.
CAC only means solid for the grade. Not sure how perfect even comes into play. Recognizing problem-free is a good thing right? So that only leaves plus grades and * ( NGC only )and that is
ruining the hobby for you and is extreme and nonsensical? Not following
Mark
Exactly. A CAC sticker means only that the coin is at least solid for the assigned grade. It does not follow that a coin without a CAC sticker is necessarily over graded or a problem coin; however, the market seems to treat coins without CAC stickers as lepers and large numbers of collectors assume that it is a problem coin (e.g. cleaned, AT, otherwise unredeemable, etc.). CAC is not a grading service, but many collectors and dealers use it as one. This creates anomalies. Assuming that the coins are eye appealing and all other factors are constant, why should a problem free MS65 "C" quality coin without a sticker be less liquid and perhaps even sell for less than MS64 "B" or "A" coin with a sticker? This makes no sense whatsoever.
And what are collectors/dealers going to do to compensate for this? Are they to beg PCGS or NGC to under grade the coin so that the piece will sticker or is the coin forever stuck in numismatic purgatory (i.e. too nice for a 64 holder, but not nice enough for a sticker)? What if you buy raw coins? You have no control over what plastic it will end up in. Does it mean that the coin is phenomenal if the TPGS picks the right number and it stickers, but it is unsaleable dreck if the TPGS goes 1 point higher? What happened to the COIN? I have no complaints with PQ coins selling for higher prices regardless of plastic or sticker. What is unfathomable to me, is when the price increase is because of the plastic or sticker itself. Look at the recent thread where TDN openly contemplates how a coin can magically jump in value $10k-$15k based on a sticker. If it is true that the quality of the coin is the determining factor in value, then the coin is worth the same amount regardless of whether it is raw, in a NGC holder, in a PCGS holder, or regardless of whether it has a CAC sticker. The problem is that the value is no longer purely a metric of the quality of the COIN itself, but a reflection of speculation on plastic and stickers. At this point, the sticker and plastic seem just as important if not more important than the coin itself. If the plastic and sticker are that important and valuable, then I want an ironclad warranty/guarantee/buyback. There is no CAC guarantee. As for TPGS guarantees... I won't digress.
Finally, it looks like CAC is crushing the prices of non-CAC coins. If the values of non-CACed coins collapse, how long do you think it will be before the rest of the market follows suit? We better start slabbing slabs then. If you break the slab, you better hope that the coin will sticker after resubmission and that it won't have found itself grade inflated into a point higher or the coin will be illiquid and sell at a deep discount.
@cameonut2011 said:
Finally, it looks like CAC is crushing the prices of non-CAC coins. If the value of a non-CACed coins collapses, how long do you think it will be before the rest of the market follows suit?
I agree with this. I've noticed that a lot of non-CAC are not even hitting PCGS price guide now but CAC is hitting above it.
Excuse me, but thousands of non-CAC coins sell everyday, just on eBay. I feel with all the drama, if I was going to spend 5 figures on a coin, I owe it to my family to make sure it's all there, by whatever means I can.
QDB has said that 90% (I think) of the full Red IHCs he has seen were processed...NOBODY enforces that standard, and I'm sure half the board will disagree with him on that point anyway.
rr i will give you this hint as to who i am-i am a png member who has been in business since the late 60's. maybe i really do know how to grade....why am i here? because of people like you spouting off inaccuracies and living in the past when today is totally different. as I said before, i forgot more then you know.
I'm impressed that you forgot so much, but I'm more interested in what, if anything, you actually remember.
Andy Lustig
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
rr i will give you this hint as to who i am-i am a png member who has been in business since the late 60's. maybe i really do know how to grade....why am i here? because of people like you spouting off inaccuracies and living in the past when today is totally different. as I said before, i forgot more then you know.
I'm impressed that you (CoinCommando) forgot so much, but I'm more interested in what, if anything, you actually remember.
Being a PNG member is hardly proof of knowing much of anything other than to churn coins. It certainly has nothing to do with grading to TPG standards. Some of my best friends over the years have been PNG members since the 1980's and 1990's....and they never could grade all that well. I also know a number of long time PNG members from the 1960's...and for the most part, they can't grade technically either. Most of them were stuck in a time warp that didn't adjust to the TPG's in 1986/1987. And they're still there.
I once asked one of my early mentors in 1988 (also PNG) why some of the biggest coin shysters from the previous 10-20 years were allowed into the PNG. His response: "It's much easier to control them here, then left out there." Made sense. PNG is merely a way to say you trade enough $$ in coins and pay dues. Some of the dealers I respected the most and who could grade to TPG standards, have refused to be PNG dealers. Based on what you've put out so far in this forum CoinCommando, you may have forgotten a lot, but whatever is still left is hardly accurate. I'm glad you showed up the last couple months to correct all my errors. I can only add, where have you been the previous 15 years to ensure I was accurate back to 2002? Is it only the past couple of months were I veered off course that forced you finally come here?
Hey Elmiracoin. You posted about Mad Marty today. Seems rather odd for someone who is fresh and only has been here a few months. Did you spend all weekend reading posts from 10 years back....lol? MM has been gone a long-long time. What was your old Forum ID? You have plenty of company with Alt ID's showing up here in the past few months. I wonder who these formerly banned and disgruntled players were?
CNNcoins who really just arrived here is a breath of fresh air to you guys. And he's been around since the 1970's seeing it all from all sides at the highest levels of trading/grading. I don't think I've disagreed with a single point they've made since they joined. When people like him and NJCC, Colonel Jessup, Mr. Eureka, etc. who do have skills and longevity, and start agreeing in totality with you new guys who have come out of the wood work....then I'll know I'm on the wrong side of the fence and maybe time to make a move ATS.
The market will continue to be a good place for things like nice, early US coinage in "collector" grades. Many better dates in most series. Numerous pockets of collector demand that will probably continue. The great unwinding just taking its toll. What was "good enough" yesterday, might not be tomorrow.
So do I, RR. Your adaptation of Martin Niemöller's famous quotation about the failure of German intellectuals to resist the rise of the Nazis to power is not appropriate. There is a world of difference between complaining about nuttiness in a market for nonessential goods and the failure to resist evil.
Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
Point taken SDR. I'll just leave it at "nuttiness" and let the Alt ID's around here continue to run with it. The people driving the boat or those on board need to keep a lookout for "unintended" consequences, of which there have been way too many.
@coincommando said:
yet another incorrect rr rant: There is no CAC guarantee. CAC DOES HAVE GUARANTEES. maybe that is why they are so tough? they do back them up.
plus, as usual mr know it all rr does not remember the 1866 MS67 STD or the 1861 in MS65 -both fully over graded? yet again the wind blows.
rr i will give you this hint as to who i am-i am a png member who has been in business since the late 60's. maybe i really do know how to grade....why am i here? because of people like you spouting off inaccuracies and living in the past when today is totally different. as I said before, i forgot more then you know.
Please show me a link to CAC's guarantee. CAC has historically offered to buy coins it stickers, but there is no guarantee that requires it to do so. It could close shop tomorrow without any legal obligation whatsoever. That is not a guarantee. This is also not a CAC criticism. In fact, from CAC's vantage point, it is a smart business move. As for those using CAC as a crutch... not so much.
... the market seems to treat coins without CAC stickers as lepers and large numbers of collectors assume that it is a problem coin ...
In a way it would be nice if this were true. I have been bidding on coins at auction without CAC stickers, and have gotten my clock cleaned on a regular basis. I bid more than the "Coin Facts" numbers ... more than recent auction results ... and still come home empty handed. I even bid on a common date coin, that I seen, which had been lightly cleaned. I bid more than the Coin Facts number, and still didn't get it.
And guess when I do win one of these "lepers" I have "let my family down."
I know that I have probably let them down by paying too much in what seems to be a dying market "full of old white men,"
At least the hobby is still fun for me, although I have to admit that CAC has taken some of the joy out it.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Maybe I have a shill following me around in the auctions, but I doubt it. I just don't bid on that many items.
Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
Comments
"Yeah, you gotta crack 'em to get the downgrade. A service will not downgrade its coins because it would cost guaranty dollars. "
Wrong again. These downgrades do occur; they are infrequent largely because few owners seek them, preferring to accept reduced liquidity instead of a lower nominal market value that would come with a reduced grade.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Lots of great and insightful posts in this thread...I have learned so much about numismatics and much more from @BillJones, @oldgoldlover, @boosibri, @roadrunner, @legendcoins and others...thanks for taking the time to post!!!
I strongly believe that most coin collectors embrace the hobby with the expectation that they will at least 'break even' when they sell, in contrast with other hobbies like golf. The 'lunacy' in the numismatic hobby, along with the inability of most collectors to fully understand what they are buying, does mean that the vast majority---I would say at least 95 percent---of coin collectors will lose money when they sell numismatic items. People who make money in this environment embrace the lunacy, and use it to their advantage. This requires serious, constant study.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
There is another way to look at this, elmiracoin. Coin collectors were usually losing money 40-50 years ago, as my grandmother was careful to teach me. Just because most people lose money engaging in a pastime doesn't mean that it will necessarily vanish---look at casinos. I do think that the situation facing most collectors is worsening, in part because the widespread acceptance of CAC as THE indicator of quality is slowly reducing non-CACed coins to untouchable status in the eyes of collectors who can afford to spend more than $1K per coin.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
If you're going to say that [assuming it was copied exactly] it would behoove one to know which than to use and to spell Mayer correctly.
No hobbyist who simply enjoys coin ownership needs to buy already beaned coins. I have been buying raw U.S. coins, tokens and medals for years, and also removing coins from NGC/PCGS slabs. Plus grades are not a significant problem either---look upon them as intermediate grades, like 53,55,58 between 50 and 60. The real problems are lack of consistent grading (which does lead to gradeflation if there is no real danger that a grade review could lead to a downgrade) and increasingly clever alterations of various kinds.
Successfully investing in coins is MUCH more difficult that merely buying them. Investing and collecting are very different animals. Real investors will resist the temptation to fall in love with their coins---what matters for them is ROI, which may mean selling something a few hours after buying it, if a profit can be made. Most collectors do not take the time to develop an understanding of the business end of the hobby; a lone-wolf investor would get skinned alive if he made this mistake.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
It sounds to me like you two actually agree. While CAC has likely helped the hobby in many ways coins that don't have the companies approval are gradually decreasing in value. Many people assume that any coin that doesn't have the sticker has been to CAC and failed. Just like I hear people say on here all the time " if expensive coins aren't in a top tpg holder there is a reason"
Totally excluding the idea that some collectors prefer raw coins.
I know one club member that immediately cracks any slabbed coins he buys and puts them in an album. And his collection ranges from the low 3 figures to the mid to high 4 figures.
one of the biggest misconceptions of CAC imo is that every coin should sticker at some grade. If it doesn't have the look that the graders at CAC prefer there is little chance they will approve it. When it comes to the bottom line, yes they are stickering coins they feel are strong for the grade but they are also making a market in all coins they sticker. If they don't want to be on the hook to make an offer at some future date because they just don't like the coin, it's not likely it will sticker no matter how accurately graded
To get back on topic I think the market is weaker than it was a couple years ago for most of the stuff I sell. I typically deal in lower end coins. Rare or better date seated in circulated grades seem to still be pretty strong and moves pretty quickly. Most common stuff has been semi stagnant and recognizing this I blew out a lot of dead inventory last year to start rebuilding. The problem I've been having though is buying anything I like at what I think are wholesale prices.
I haven't been able to buy coins from any vest pocket dealers in my area because their idea of wholesale right now seems higher than what I see as retail. But I don't have as big a customer base as the other dealers posted about in this thread.
My Ebay Store
I have great respect for Laura and what she has built, but I do not see how she can simply dismiss the observations of other dealers and market participants (like the OP). Her niche (Tier I and upper Tier II of the ryk trifurcation) is on fire--I get that. PTVetter's coin shop and local coin show-centric world (lower Tier II and Tier III) is in the doldrums. Both opinions, based on their own personal observations of their own businesses, can be correct.
RYK,
I largely agree with what you just wrote. In her defense, she is careful to note in her Market Reports that her opinions represent her own (written on behalf of Legend). Views of different sectors of the numismatic market should not be expected to coincide.
However, an awful lot of the coins in the marketplace will never see the light of CAC---are there enough buyers for these? Right now, I don't think so. Bullion-related trading (including buying old jewelry and silver flatware) saved the day for many small dealers. If those types of trades slow down enough, we will see business closures in meaningful numbers.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
I agree. "The market" is the amalgamation of the experiences of all of the participants in the market. Yes, Laura's contribution to "the market" is orders of magnitude greater than ryk's contribution, but it does not mean that whether ryk has trouble selling a crusty, old gold coin for 50% PCGS price guide or easily sells it for 200% price guide has no bearing on "the market". Or any other attempted or completed transaction by any participant.
I don't look at a CAC sticker as a "plus" grade personally. That would make an already graded plus coin with sticker a grade higher wouldn't it? Or two pluses..... Anyway my old boss used to say figures lie and liars figure... One cannot speak of the coin market as one whole, to many moving parts, some up, some down, some stagnate... Just my opinion.
In Laura's November 2016 Hot Topics, she did indicate challenges the hobby was facing, including weakness in the market:
Then who is she to characterize some of the posters here in a derogatory fashion? I have purchased many coins, including some from Legend, that have undoubtedly gone down in value since the pieces were purchased in the past (e.g. proof cameo liberty head nickel). Are these now dreck and numismatic slop? I don't think so.
I respect Laura, but she really does need to tone it down. On a positive note, it does look like the post may have been edited to tone it down a notch.
Laura is who she is and I'm personally thankful for it. Her passion and heart is the right place. The hobby is a much better place with her in it. If any hobby needs its feathers ruffled this is it.
She will never win a spelling bee but she sure can raise the torch to carry the good fight on behalf of collectors. So often people dwell on the little things and miss the big picture.
mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I'm Laura's customer for the last three years, and can't argue with what she's said in her reports. I'm not promoting her business, just saying if I was not happy, I'd be gone.
CAC and plus grades do not help the market.
Imagine the bad taste it would leave in a novice collectors mouth when they try to sell some of their coins... "Oh, no sticker, no this, no that? I can only offer you $xxxx"
More is not better.
Following this thread just further confirms that the world coin market is a better place to be...
No apologies.
Experience the World through Numismatics...it's more than you can imagine.
"I respect Laura, but she really does need to tone it down."
That's like removing spots from a leopard or the Donald not twittering....etc. etc. etc.
I post and look at other collects comments to learn about coins. I just don't bother with form over substance.
I watch the Andy Griffith show or Mash. More entertaining and I frankly it is time better spent as any one that has it figured out is not going to offer such information to the public. As I said previously a broken clock is correct twice daily. Cannot say the same for anyone trying to forecast a market or markets that have never been able to to date.
Frankly if I see a dealer offering coins via TV I would be more apt to sell these if I had them. Any coin that is offered to the public is stale inventory IMO as they are paying to get viewing time and the cost rolled into the coin.
The similarities don't end there. I still have and treasure my "Vote for Laura" button.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
I'm always interested, and somewhat amused, when folks discuss the state of "markets" in stocks, real Estate, and coins, among others, and the direction of "averages ".
The aggregate statistical data is nice, but the specific assets have unique qualities. Thanks for the sector color from your specialties.
I'm not seeing declines in problem free pre 1815 type coins, if you do, please point me in the direction of the sale.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Who? I would guess it is the dealers who know how to play this game and make a heck of a lot of money.
How about a Mr Eureka 2018 "Make Coins Great Again" running platform?
Latin American Collection
I'd have to agree with Baley, at least in spirit. But problem free and orig pre-1815 type coins are almost like unicorns. Those might make up 5-10% of that total market. I have a tough time calling any early bust coinage as problem-free. I've owned a number of nice ones, but can't think of any I could truly call "without problems." I understand that what constitutes a "quality" coin today seems to be an ever shrinking sub-set....at least since 1989.
I've owned some "unicorns" that to me were problem free coins, and coins I'd hunted for over 20 yrs before they dropped into my lap. One, an honest to goodness original gem MS65 seated dollar and a real MS63 1839 no drapery half dollar with full luster and zero rub. An impossible coin. Yet when showing those around to my local dealers to show them something special, all they could see was a minute cut on Liberty's breast (the reason it wasn't a MS66) and seeing typical strike issues on the 1839 as "rub" and hence at best AU55. That's what we're dealing with. Fwiw, both coins ended up in the finest collections of their kind. I want perfection and problem-free too....whatever that means to each of us. But in a way, it has gotten out of hand....to the detriment of decent coins that make up the other 90% of our market. This quest for perfect, problem-free as the only thing "good enough" (and CAC, +, star, low pop, finest known, and other things all play into this) ....has gotten to extremes. Though I'm sure it will get only get more extreme.
Look - a crappy ms65 1870 seated dollar at the time would have sold for like $15k - I stepped up and paid double that. The fact is that bad for the grade coins impair the liquidity of great for the grade coins. CAC is the equalizer in that regard.
CAC only means solid for the grade. Not sure how perfect even comes into play. Recognizing problem-free is a good thing right? So that only leaves plus grades and * ( NGC only )and that is
ruining the hobby for you and is extreme and nonsensical? Not following
Mark
Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
I never saw a crappy PCGS MS65 seated dollar from 1986-2003, before I bought that PCGS MS65. PCGS held the line on gem MS65 seated dollars better than on almost any single coin I can think of. NGC did not. I could see an NGC MS65 seated dollar trading for $15K at that time and maybe today too. The first time I saw what I felt was not an all there PCGS MS65 seated dollar was the 1857 Queller (2003) coin. I graded the raw dipped coin 64+ (shot coin) with obv hairlines and passed on it at the auction when it got over the $20K level. It ended up going PCGS MS65. In fact Larry Whitlow ended up with it and tried to sell it to me for $27K, not knowing I had bid on the coin. I had no interest in a 64++ at that level. TDN and I agree that the 1870 MS65 dollar was all there....and within 3 yrs it was worth 2X what he paid for it...as we both sort of anticipated. And the CDN price of the time around $20K for type was really absurd considering the pops had barely increased since 1989 when they were $55K-$65K each. They were an opportunity in the waiting to recover their 1989 prices. The hard part was finding them.
Mark, there are lots of "levels" of problem-free. Many, even CAC in some instance have taken it to some very stringent levels. For one, how about MS65 Saints and $20 Libs where only 5% of the coins sticker? It's their right to choose to do that. But that right has blighted the other 95% of the slabbed $20's and helped crush their prices. Good thing they didn't decide to apply a 5% rule to say Gem Commems or Gem Bust halves. My point about "problem-free" above was the essentially problem free 1870 MS65 dollar with a tiny tick on the breast from MS66. I got more negative comments on that coin than positive ones, with most everyone noting the "big" cut on the breast...the only mark of note on the coin (ie "that would be really nice coin IF not for that mark"). The coin was superb in all other respects (it's now a 65+). And TDN knew that and paid accordingly...even if 95% of our participants can only focus on a single minor "cut."
There's a growing crowd for essentially "perfect" coins....which to me means problem free to the nth degree....the top 1-5% of all coins. CAC is a significant reason for that growth. CAC may have intended to mean "solid for the grade"....but it floats. And it will continue to float with the market and its associated risks. Is it really possible that only 5% of slabbed MS65/66 Saints are "solid for the grade" or legitimate "B" coins? I'll also note that of the over 100 MS68 Saints that are graded....not a single coin is yet stickered....meaning every one is not solid for the grade. What does the lack of stickering do to those coins? It crushes their price. Why not a more reasonable 20-30% sticker rate? Were the $20's gradeflation that horrible? I don't think it was 95% bad...but I'm not JA and it's his money on the line...not mine. I don't fault him in any way. I only report on the fallout or "unintended" consequences....such as ALL NGC coins being tossed out with the bathwater.
Early federal coinage was listed as a notable exception to the market woes that later 19th century and 20th century issues are experiencing. It is a small segment of the entire U.S. coin market.
Since following all of these (varied and informative) points of view on the market,I would find it very difficult to explain this market(grading,pricing,doctoring,auction antics, etc.) to a newbie wanting to enter the hobby. Especially one who is looking for standardization within the hobby. Could even be discouraging to same. Probably, I'd have to recommend them joining this forum and let them sort it out for themselves, and hope they can sort through the muddle until they reach collecting nirvana.
Exactly. A CAC sticker means only that the coin is at least solid for the assigned grade. It does not follow that a coin without a CAC sticker is necessarily over graded or a problem coin; however, the market seems to treat coins without CAC stickers as lepers and large numbers of collectors assume that it is a problem coin (e.g. cleaned, AT, otherwise unredeemable, etc.). CAC is not a grading service, but many collectors and dealers use it as one. This creates anomalies. Assuming that the coins are eye appealing and all other factors are constant, why should a problem free MS65 "C" quality coin without a sticker be less liquid and perhaps even sell for less than MS64 "B" or "A" coin with a sticker? This makes no sense whatsoever.
And what are collectors/dealers going to do to compensate for this? Are they to beg PCGS or NGC to under grade the coin so that the piece will sticker or is the coin forever stuck in numismatic purgatory (i.e. too nice for a 64 holder, but not nice enough for a sticker)? What if you buy raw coins? You have no control over what plastic it will end up in. Does it mean that the coin is phenomenal if the TPGS picks the right number and it stickers, but it is unsaleable dreck if the TPGS goes 1 point higher? What happened to the COIN? I have no complaints with PQ coins selling for higher prices regardless of plastic or sticker. What is unfathomable to me, is when the price increase is because of the plastic or sticker itself. Look at the recent thread where TDN openly contemplates how a coin can magically jump in value $10k-$15k based on a sticker. If it is true that the quality of the coin is the determining factor in value, then the coin is worth the same amount regardless of whether it is raw, in a NGC holder, in a PCGS holder, or regardless of whether it has a CAC sticker. The problem is that the value is no longer purely a metric of the quality of the COIN itself, but a reflection of speculation on plastic and stickers. At this point, the sticker and plastic seem just as important if not more important than the coin itself. If the plastic and sticker are that important and valuable, then I want an ironclad warranty/guarantee/buyback. There is no CAC guarantee. As for TPGS guarantees... I won't digress.
Finally, it looks like CAC is crushing the prices of non-CAC coins. If the values of non-CACed coins collapse, how long do you think it will be before the rest of the market follows suit? We better start slabbing slabs then. If you break the slab, you better hope that the coin will sticker after resubmission and that it won't have found itself grade inflated into a point higher or the coin will be illiquid and sell at a deep discount.
I agree with this. I've noticed that a lot of non-CAC are not even hitting PCGS price guide now but CAC is hitting above it.
Trump needs to tweet something about coins.
Excuse me, but thousands of non-CAC coins sell everyday, just on eBay. I feel with all the drama, if I was going to spend 5 figures on a coin, I owe it to my family to make sure it's all there, by whatever means I can.
QDB has said that 90% (I think) of the full Red IHCs he has seen were processed...NOBODY enforces that standard, and I'm sure half the board will disagree with him on that point anyway.
I'm impressed that you forgot so much, but I'm more interested in what, if anything, you actually remember.
Doggedly collecting coins of the Central American Republic.
Visit the Society of US Pattern Collectors at USPatterns.com.
Maybe the 10 gold coins that are the subject of an ownership dispute.
Being a PNG member is hardly proof of knowing much of anything other than to churn coins. It certainly has nothing to do with grading to TPG standards. Some of my best friends over the years have been PNG members since the 1980's and 1990's....and they never could grade all that well. I also know a number of long time PNG members from the 1960's...and for the most part, they can't grade technically either. Most of them were stuck in a time warp that didn't adjust to the TPG's in 1986/1987. And they're still there.
I once asked one of my early mentors in 1988 (also PNG) why some of the biggest coin shysters from the previous 10-20 years were allowed into the PNG. His response: "It's much easier to control them here, then left out there." Made sense. PNG is merely a way to say you trade enough $$ in coins and pay dues. Some of the dealers I respected the most and who could grade to TPG standards, have refused to be PNG dealers. Based on what you've put out so far in this forum CoinCommando, you may have forgotten a lot, but whatever is still left is hardly accurate. I'm glad you showed up the last couple months to correct all my errors. I can only add, where have you been the previous 15 years to ensure I was accurate back to 2002? Is it only the past couple of months were I veered off course that forced you finally come here?
Hey Elmiracoin. You posted about Mad Marty today. Seems rather odd for someone who is fresh and only has been here a few months. Did you spend all weekend reading posts from 10 years back....lol? MM has been gone a long-long time. What was your old Forum ID? You have plenty of company with Alt ID's showing up here in the past few months. I wonder who these formerly banned and disgruntled players were?
CNNcoins who really just arrived here is a breath of fresh air to you guys. And he's been around since the 1970's seeing it all from all sides at the highest levels of trading/grading. I don't think I've disagreed with a single point they've made since they joined. When people like him and NJCC, Colonel Jessup, Mr. Eureka, etc. who do have skills and longevity, and start agreeing in totality with you new guys who have come out of the wood work....then I'll know I'm on the wrong side of the fence and maybe time to make a move ATS.
Edited that.
The market will continue to be a good place for things like nice, early US coinage in "collector" grades. Many better dates in most series. Numerous pockets of collector demand that will probably continue. The great unwinding just taking its toll. What was "good enough" yesterday, might not be tomorrow.
A little bit dramatic, don't you think?
So do I, RR. Your adaptation of Martin Niemöller's famous quotation about the failure of German intellectuals to resist the rise of the Nazis to power is not appropriate. There is a world of difference between complaining about nuttiness in a market for nonessential goods and the failure to resist evil.
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
Point taken SDR. I'll just leave it at "nuttiness" and let the Alt ID's around here continue to run with it. The people driving the boat or those on board need to keep a lookout for "unintended" consequences, of which there have been way too many.
Please show me a link to CAC's guarantee. CAC has historically offered to buy coins it stickers, but there is no guarantee that requires it to do so. It could close shop tomorrow without any legal obligation whatsoever. That is not a guarantee. This is also not a CAC criticism. In fact, from CAC's vantage point, it is a smart business move. As for those using CAC as a crutch... not so much.
"I owe it to my family to make sure it's all there."
The coin or the coin market?
The coin, there's certainly no way to do that with the market.
Indeed. Stamps, anyone?
RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'
CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
In a way it would be nice if this were true. I have been bidding on coins at auction without CAC stickers, and have gotten my clock cleaned on a regular basis. I bid more than the "Coin Facts" numbers ... more than recent auction results ... and still come home empty handed. I even bid on a common date coin, that I seen, which had been lightly cleaned. I bid more than the Coin Facts number, and still didn't get it.
And guess when I do win one of these "lepers" I have "let my family down."
I know that I have probably let them down by paying too much in what seems to be a dying market "full of old white men,"
At least the hobby is still fun for me, although I have to admit that CAC has taken some of the joy out it.
I'm glad the value and size of my collection is small and I don't feel the angst of the members in this thread! Sweet liberation!
Maybe I have a shill following me around in the auctions, but I doubt it. I just don't bid on that many items.