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This market is not so great

PTVETTERPTVETTER Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭✭✭

I have heard from many dealers that this market is one the worst in years.
Not only is it down but has lasted longer than expected.
Shows are down in dealer and public attendance.
Looks like only the strong will survive?
Your thoughs??

Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211


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Comments

  • BruceSBruceS Posts: 1,356 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm glad its just a hobby for myself. And its good from a buyers perspective, I guess. My few eBay items have been doing ok, buts it mostly just modern stuff that has a larger audience.


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  • ElcontadorElcontador Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭✭✭

    A number of dealers at the recent Long Beach show who are on the higher end of the food chain seem to think they can get full retail for their coins. I don't even look at the coins offered by these dealers.

    "Vou invadir o Nordeste,
    "Seu cabra da peste,
    "Sou Mangueira......."
  • SonorandesertratSonorandesertrat Posts: 5,695 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Not even close to being real bad. When I see dealers offering guaranteed buybacks when they sell coins or if I see prices dropping much more than they have, then I will agree.

    Member: EAC, NBS, C4, CWTS, ANA

    RMR: 'Wer, wenn ich schriee, hörte mich denn aus der Engel Ordnungen?'

    CJ: 'No one!' [Ain't no angels in the coin biz]
  • WaterSportWaterSport Posts: 6,893 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In my opinion, its been down for several years. Plus grading and a greater pop increase in higher grades is part of the blame. I am selling coins at least 1/3 less of what I paid for them before 2006. So something in the market is not like it was.

    WS

    Proud recipient of the coveted PCGS Forum "You Suck" Award Thursday July 19, 2007 11:33 PM and December 30th, 2011 at 8:50 PM.
  • PTVETTERPTVETTER Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭✭✭

    If NOTHING is coming is having what you got one has to get all they can and another one may not come along for a while.
    However common coins are still common !

    Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211


  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,835 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think if some of the dealers sitting on inventory would lower prices, they might actually see an uptick in business. Someone on the precious metals forum said a large wholesaler had over 7,000 $20 Gold coins in stock and over 40,000 generic silver dollars as well with few buyers.

    I also see dealers with the same old inventory at the same old prices. Lower your prices, and get that inventory moving ;)

  • erwindocerwindoc Posts: 5,226 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Having fun in my arenas. Plenty of nice coins to find.

  • PTVETTERPTVETTER Posts: 5,995 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I guess that Down market is fewer sales not always lower prices.
    Quality collector coins are still in demand and at least holding their value.

    Pat Vetter,Mercury Dime registry set,1938 Proof set registry,Pat & BJ Coins:724-325-7211


  • WalkerfanWalkerfan Posts: 9,609 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 9:13PM

    It's a buyers' market for sure. We are in the trough of a market cycle. I see more polarization, too---meaning higher prices for better PQ stuff but very low prices for more generic lower grade items.

    Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍

    My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):

    https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/

  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,198 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @hchcoin said:
    I think if some of the dealers sitting on inventory would lower prices, they might actually see an uptick in business. Someone on the precious metals forum said a large wholesaler had over 7,000 $20 Gold coins in stock and over 40,000 generic silver dollars as well with few buyers.

    I also see dealers with the same old inventory at the same old prices. Lower your prices, and get that inventory moving ;)

    The gold might be in low demand due to being tax time OR some might see the stock market as a better place to put money now.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • hchcoinhchcoin Posts: 4,835 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @hchcoin said:
    I think if some of the dealers sitting on inventory would lower prices, they might actually see an uptick in business. Someone on the precious metals forum said a large wholesaler had over 7,000 $20 Gold coins in stock and over 40,000 generic silver dollars as well with few buyers.

    I also see dealers with the same old inventory at the same old prices. Lower your prices, and get that inventory moving ;)

    The gold might be in low demand due to being tax time OR some might see the stock market as a better place to put money now.

    Good point on the stock market.

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • caddyshackcaddyshack Posts: 115 ✭✭

    not true at all. you have the eliasberg guy out there-he is the equivalent of 50 big birds, didn't you just see what the Goldberg copper sale did-or the heritage FUN Sale??? watch the pogue sale-if the coins are nice, then they will sell crazy as will blue moon coins.

    yes, last year was very bad. this year not so. look for people to sell stocks and move some $ into coins. happens every time the stock market is overheated

  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 34,587 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jonruns said:
    Good coins are selling for good prices

    Even some slightly above average coins.

    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?
  • NumivenNumiven Posts: 382 ✭✭✭

    All my opinions:

    I am collecting CC morgans and pre 1933 gold for type sets in last 3 years. I feel the dealers are overpriced by a good 10%+. The best price is found at HA or other auctions. The prices of mid range MS gold coins are little down, not to the level I want it to be though.

    Most older collectors are not in buying mode, the hobby is having an age problem, with not enough millenials to support the prices.

    The two sectors that are doing well (probaby a little appreciation) is top PQ coins and silver bullion.

    I am schocked to see so many youtube videos with young people stacking silver by whatever means. It funny and sad to see these younger folks are buying skull shaped 5oz silver as investment! Not the taste of a numismatist.

    Anyways, I am 32 and not looking at selling anytime sooon, by god's grace. I am looking at a 25 year horizon. Any predictions who will be in the market to buy my MS 63 gold coins?

  • ElmhurstElmhurst Posts: 795 ✭✭✭

    I think 80% or more of the best coins are now off the market and in strong hands, and won't come back until the owners can get a decent return on them. The problem is that auctions are selling a lot of crap, resulting in lower prices realized, which are then reflected in the price guides. So the market looks like it's going down, but PQ coins are not available at listed prices.

  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Justacommeman said:

    @hchcoin said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @hchcoin said:
    I think if some of the dealers sitting on inventory would lower prices, they might actually see an uptick in business. Someone on the precious metals forum said a large wholesaler had over 7,000 $20 Gold coins in stock and over 40,000 generic silver dollars as well with few buyers.

    I also see dealers with the same old inventory at the same old prices. Lower your prices, and get that inventory moving ;)

    The gold might be in low demand due to being tax time OR some might see the stock market as a better place to put money now.

    Good point on the stock market.

    Stock market at an all time high. Not sure I would be putting a lot of new money to work there.

    mark

    Buy high, sell higher.

  • boyernumismaticsboyernumismatics Posts: 473 ✭✭✭✭

    @Numiven said:
    Most older collectors are not in buying mode, the hobby is having an age problem, with not enough millenials to support the prices.

    I'll second that. If 75% of the hobby is made of people over 60, then something is going to change, and relatively fast. It HAS to.

  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,400 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Certain segments of collecting are continuing to do extremely well.

    How much of the down market is due to the economy, changing hobby habits and gradeflation?

  • leothelyonleothelyon Posts: 8,475 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2, 2017 11:24AM

    There are two coin markets. One is the value coins generate when buying is earmarked for registry points. The other is for many collectors who could care less about the registry but yet are faced with the high dollar registry coins. And so, when dealers paid dearly for those registry coins they were likely expecting more registry participants but not everyone can be at the top. It's for a very small elite group who can sink hundreds of thousands into those top sets. And everyone else is stuck with overinflated prices for their coins. The hobby has become stagnant due to the greed over registry points and not everyone is playing. The hobby has become a web tunnel as the spider awaits for the wary fly.

    Leo

    The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!

    My Jefferson Nickel Collection

  • RYKRYK Posts: 35,799 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I think that the coin market of old is gone and never will return. The coin market has (at least) three layers:

    1. The true rarities, the trophy coins--like 1794 dollars, chain cents in MS, Stellas, rare date proof gold, 1884/5 trade dollars, 1854-S QEs, etc., coins that are six figures and higher for the top 0.1% to 1% of collectors. These coins (and usually these collectors) never see the light of day until a hedge fund blows up, a private plane crashes, or a centenarian gazillionaire collector decides to move on.

    2. The upper middle to upper tier coins, in the mid-four figures to $100,000 range, for the discerning, passionate collector, to appreciate, study, and share among friends. Branch mint gold, better date/grade type, wildly toned Morgans and commems, EAC low condition census half and large cents, registry quality Mercs, SLQs, and Walkers, etc. These coins are in the wheelhouse of many of the people who visit this forum.

    3. The rest--coins in the free/pocket change/melt to low four figures--comprise the largest swath of the numismatic landscape-- bank roll searchers, blah Morgans, modern mint du jour offerings, hoards, your grandparents' collections, typical Morgans, circulated common type coin collectors, THREE CENT SILVERs ;) , average/circ Morgans, Whitman folder coins, worn flat Barbers, nothing special GSA Morgans, etc. This is the stuff that is easy to buy and hard to sell.

    You can adjust the breakpoints and descriptions, but you cannot deny the existence of the Trifurcated Coin Market.

  • chumleychumley Posts: 2,305 ✭✭✭✭

    I was researching pricing on seated liberty half dollars on Ebay...... talk about a dead market

  • NumivenNumiven Posts: 382 ✭✭✭

    The registry challenges you and makes you look for the best coins.

    I feel its more like whoever can drop 100s of thousands $ in coins can be top in the registry. Except for true rarities.
    It sort of a game to show off wealth to some extent. Because as long as you can pay, you can be at the top.

    Not sure if that many people have that much dough to drop.

    How many people fund this hobby before funding their retirement accounts?

  • LakesammmanLakesammman Posts: 17,440 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Prices in the sample market are rising. :D

    "My friends who see my collection sometimes ask what something costs. I tell them and they are in awe at my stupidity." (Baccaruda, 12/03).I find it hard to believe that he (Trump) rushed to some hotel to meet girls of loose morals, although ours are undoubtedly the best in the world. (Putin 1/17) Gone but not forgotten. IGWT, Speedy, Bear, BigE, HokieFore, John Burns, Russ, TahoeDale, Dahlonega, Astrorat, Stewart Blay, Oldhoopster, Broadstruck, Ricko, Big Moose, Cardinal.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,198 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 9:46PM

    @Justacommeman said:
    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 11:05PM

    @RYK said:
    Trifurcation

    Soon to be followed by Quadfurcation.

    1990-1996 was the previous longest bear market of my collecting lifetime. The bear market of 2009-2017 has now exceeded that in time. I do remember some dealers in the 1990-1996 bear that were offering guaranteed 90% buy backs of anything they sold. Of course that is unsustainable if the market keeps moving lower. While I haven't seen that this time around, it's not a requirement of an extended bear market. If you look at the PCGS CU3000 index, the overall coin market has been moving lower since 1989. One by one, sectors are reaching extreme peaks, then dropping by the wayside.

    Great coins were decimated in the 1990-1996 bear market, many falling by 50-75%. Almost nothing was excluded. Though I'd imagine the drop in prices of great rarities were somewhat tempered.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • cameonut2011cameonut2011 Posts: 10,178 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BillJones said:
    As a buyer - collector, I have yet to participate in this "down market." The prices are beyond the listed retail numbers for the coins on my want list, even the so-called common date.

    Are you referring to auction data? Have you ever wondered if you were bidding against the potted plant in the back of the auction hall (i.e. a house bid)? Of course early federal coinage is one of the few strong segments in this market.

  • stevebensteveben Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 9:52PM

    @RYK said:

    THREE CENT SILVERs ;)

    spit take

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:
    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.

    Actually I have heard these words spoken many times recently with my own ears , " I'm not selling into this weak market". I'm not sure how else to interpret it.

    Mark

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,198 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Justacommeman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:
    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.

    Actually I have heard these words spoken many times recently with my own ears , " I'm not selling into this weak market". I'm not sure how else to interpret it.

    Mark

    That depends on the coin IMO. Everything I have would probably fall under that. I expect most of what TDN has is likely impervious to a weak market, but I could be wrong about that. I recently moved a couple items where I about broke even or made a little and a couple at a loss where no market was going to get me back above water.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • ZoinsZoins Posts: 34,400 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 10:24PM

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:
    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.

    Actually I have heard these words spoken many times recently with my own ears , " I'm not selling into this weak market". I'm not sure how else to interpret it.

    Mark

    That depends on the coin IMO. Everything I have would probably fall under that. I expect most of what TDN has is likely impervious to a weak market, but I could be wrong about that. I recently moved a couple items where I about broke even or made a little and a couple at a loss where no market was going to get me back above water.

    That's an interesting point about being impervious to a weak market. There are two ways to be impervious:

    • Be so strongly held that it won't be sold in a weak market
    • Be so in demand that it will still command a premium in a weak market

    A weak market may drive collectors out so strong hands may be the better reason for being impervious.

  • JustacommemanJustacommeman Posts: 22,852 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 1, 2017 10:42PM

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:

    @Justacommeman said:
    I'm finding that a lot of great coins in my collecting sphere are not coming to market at lower levels. They remain in strong hands. So I wait.

    mark

    But that isn't necessarily because of a weak market since great coins usually bring great prices in almost any market, because of furcation.

    Actually I have heard these words spoken many times recently with my own ears , " I'm not selling into this weak market". I'm not sure how else to interpret it.

    Mark

    That depends on the coin IMO. Everything I have would probably fall under that. I expect most of what TDN has is likely impervious to a weak market, but I could be wrong about that. I recently moved a couple items where I about broke even or made a little and a couple at a loss where no market was going to get me back above water.

    10k to 50k range. Some higher

    mark

    Walker Proof Digital Album
    Fellas, leave the tight pants to the ladies. If I can count the coins in your pockets you better use them to call a tailor. Stay thirsty my friends......
  • Type2Type2 Posts: 13,985 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yes it can be tuff on some but I'm having buying at a good price.



    Hoard the keys.
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,198 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I admit I'm not much of a player lately. I've paid up some for nice coins, but having trouble finding others to do the same when I sell.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • roadrunnerroadrunner Posts: 28,313 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Zoins said:

    A weak market may drive collectors out so strong hands may be the better reason for being impervious.

    The strongest hands always tend to be the hard core collectors. The weak dealers, weak collectors, and specs get tossed out. The only ones left are strong dealer and strong collectors.

    Barbarous Relic No More, LSCC -GoldSeek--shadow stats--SafeHaven--321gold
  • BAJJERFANBAJJERFAN Posts: 31,198 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Justacommeman said:

    @BAJJERFAN said:
    I admit I'm not much of a player lately. I've paid up some for nice coins, but having trouble finding others to do the same when I sell.

    You will not be lonely in this sentiment. I've found that buying the right material and selling at the right time to be the best recipe for success. One can only control the first part and then practice patience for the second. Example:

    I sold my high grade near top pop rookie sportscard collection in two parts that I collected for 25 years. Part one I sold 4 years ago and basically broke even. I was not happy so I held back the second group until last year and sold it into a nuclear white hot market. Some cards increased in value 10X in a three year period. The market has since pulled back some.

    Timing is an underrated part of collecting.

    Mark

    Weird thing is that the last 2 years on the Sunday I got home from a local show, I had emails wanting to buy coins I'd had up for sale for a long time. Another factor is how thin the market is for what you are selling.

    theknowitalltroll;
  • This content has been removed.
  • mirabelamirabela Posts: 5,083 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I'm not sure it's universally bad. It seems kind of all over the place to me -- certain things are more expensive than they were some while back and very hard to locate, and other things are in a slow slide and available for anybody who will take them.

    mirabela
  • rickoricko Posts: 98,724 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Since I do not sell coins, I cannot opine on the state of sales with experiential authority... however, based on show reports, it would seem the market is improving .... now, this might be isolated exuberance or faith based hype... however, it seems authentic. My purchases have not reflected a 'down' market... seems the coins I have bought have been typically priced. Cheers, RickO

  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,464 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The poor get genuine. The rich get bragging rights and a sticker

  • BillJonesBillJones Posts: 34,587 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited March 2, 2017 6:04AM

    @cameonut2011 said:

    @BillJones said:
    As a buyer - collector, I have yet to participate in this "down market." The prices are beyond the listed retail numbers for the coins on my want list, even the so-called common date.

    Are you referring to auction data? Have you ever wondered if you were bidding against the potted plant in the back of the auction hall (i.e. a house bid)? Of course early federal coinage is one of the few strong segments in this market.

    If it's the "potted plant," it's got an interesting collection going, because I have often not been the buyer. In a few cases I was not even close to being the buyer. The ending bid was just "nutty."

    I think that the "potted plant" ran up the bid for two items that I did win. In one instance the auction house came back asking for more money than the closing bid at the sale because they missed a "snail mail bid." I paid them a bit more because the coin is very scarce and hard to find. I don't think that I'm "buried" into that one.

    The bottom line was the auction house was not pleased with the price realized, and I had to pay for the "snail mail bid" that they placed on their own behalf. That's what I believe.

    In the other instance, a phone bidder drove up the price of lot against men to a very high level. When I quite bidding they, withdrew their bid saying they didn't know they were going to so high. I ended up with the piece. I love the coin, once more a rare one, but I know I paid way too much.

    Retired dealer and avid collector of U.S. type coins, 19th century presidential campaign medalets and selected medals. In recent years I have been working on a set of British coins - at least one coin from each king or queen who issued pieces that are collectible. I am also collecting at least one coin for each Roman emperor from Julius Caesar to ... ?

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