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Forum member inflation report.

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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It all goes back to money velocity. People are just not spending any more than they have to. Money velocity is the true indicator of the health of the economy.

    Maybe the FED can scare them into spending by letting interest rates rise. image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    People are just not spending any more than they have to.

    Isn't that exactly what's been preached to them over and over? Live within your means, spend less than you make, save what you can, don't take on new debt and pay down the old..

    Hell, more and more of them are buying gold and silver coins, isn't that what's being preached on here and on our favorite blog/advertising sites?

    It's all going according to plan, they say, as they twist their handlebar mustaches and hide their grins under the shadow of their top hat or behind a fold of their cape?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>It all goes back to money velocity. People are just not spending any more than they have to. Money velocity is the true indicator of the health of the economy.

    Maybe the FED can scare them into spending by letting interest rates rise. image >>



    Looks at the $10,000,000,000 jump last month in consumer debt. Auto sales are a record levels. Ignore though that the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels. Aunty Janet though can fix that with a click of the mouse.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels

    Do you care to quantify this?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels

    Do you care to quantify this? >>



    Sure. Here is a Gloomberg link. Text

    Loss rate is running at about 5%, not in itself horrible, except in our fed orchestrated low rate environment, rates charged on the sub primes clearly will not be able to cover the losses. Look for substantial defaults and of course bailouts.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels

    Do you care to quantify this? >>



    Sure. Here is a Gloomberg link. Text

    Loss rate is running at about 5%, not in itself horrible, except in our fed orchestrated low rate environment, rates charged on the sub primes clearly will not be able to cover the losses. Look for substantial defaults and of course bailouts. >>



    Suggest you read the article

    Subprime auto loans: The new (not so) toxic debt
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Thank you for the link, Opa.

    I am not suggesting that the auto loans approach the mortgage debacle. The loan amounts are smaller by a factor of 10 and the lenders are at least a little smarter now....I hope.

    Problem is auto production as been the shining light of the economy. Of course underpriced loans combined with pent up demand has been the catalyst. As the subprimes (as well as the traditional loans) become properly priced in the future, it will take some heavy wind out of car sales.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels

    Do you care to quantify this? >>



    Sure. Here is a Gloomberg link. Text

    Loss rate is running at about 5%, not in itself horrible, except in our fed orchestrated low rate environment, rates charged on the sub primes clearly will not be able to cover the losses. Look for substantial defaults and of course bailouts. >>



    Are today's delinquencies comparable to the rates in 2008-2010? Has the average age if a car risen since 2008? What us the life expectancy if a car?
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels

    Do you care to quantify this? >>



    Sure. Here is a Gloomberg link. Text

    Loss rate is running at about 5%, not in itself horrible, except in our fed orchestrated low rate environment, rates charged on the sub primes clearly will not be able to cover the losses. Look for substantial defaults and of course bailouts. >>



    Are today's delinquencies comparable to the rates in 2008-2010? Has the average age if a car risen since 2008? What us the life expectancy if a car? >>


    What matters here is the current life expectancy of the payments regardless of their historical levels. The strength of an economy attempting to absorb such losses will determine the economic seriousness of the losses. The weight of subprime loans in the overall picture of consumer debt is important. We are at a low in consumer debt where a failure in student loans and in subprime auto loans will have a more dramatic affect on the overall economy.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • ebaytraderebaytrader Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭


    << <i>]

    Do central banks really believe that consumption/demand should be driven by fear (of higher prices)? Didn't Germany experience this many years ago? This time it will be different? image >>



    That is the foundation of Keynesian economics. FAIL.

    The real driver of the economy is employment and the business risk of supply-side and the accompanying demands. Works 100% of the time.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    And now we have subprime iphone loans. image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Are today's delinquencies comparable to the rates in 2008-2010? Has the average age if a car risen since 2008? What us the life expectancy if a car? >>



    Good questions but I don't have the time or desire to do a deep dive on the subject.

    A close friend was on Wall Street doing risk analysis for many prominent lenders. He contend, and I agree that any risk can be priced.

    The subprime loans are grossly underpriced for the risk as an estimated 50% loss will be taken on each non performing loan. The durability of an auto is of small consequence (remember these as sub prime borrowers) as the repossessed assets are often in very poor condition.

    Of course in a zero percent interest world, the 5% or 6% received by the bondholders seemed like a windfall, but will ultimately be a disaster. Of course Lew and Yellen will probably cut them a check as this is America in 2014.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't have the time or desire to do a deep dive on the subject


    Then perhaps before you make a statement like " the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels", you should take the time to truly understand what you are saying.

    Its so in vogue these days to just spout off the popular mantras which im sure gets great admiration from the neophytes, but does little to build trust and confidence.

    Its like that stupid TV show "survivor". Its always the less weak of the weak that "wins". In my book, that isnt a win.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 2,192 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Housing prices of course vary dramatically by geographic location and can be very volatile over time.

    Although the index cited by the author is up considerably over the past two years, the ten year annualized increase is remarkably tame: 0.4 %.
    Higashiyama
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The debate on negative interest rates

    "The effectiveness of the benchmark rate set by central bank targets to stimulate bank lending is drained as it approaches zero and cannot be lowered further through central bank open market operations to stimulate more economic activities. This is because negative interest rates cause depositors to pay interest to the deposit-taking bank for the privilege of depositing money with the bank. That abnormal arrangement can reduce the bank's incentive to put deposits to work by taking manageable risk in lending to earn returns on deposits above interest paid to depositors. The spread between interest paid on deposits and return on investment using deposits is the profit made by banks.

    Negative interest rates cause creditors (deposit-makers), to pay debtors (depositing-taking banks) for the privilege of letting the borrowers use the lenders' money - an arrangement that violates the fundamental principle of finance."

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>CPI deception >>



    Once again, differential and regional supply-and-demand differences are confused with systemic "inflation"

    Oh, rents and home prices in San Francisco and San Diego are high and going higher? what a surprise!

    How are rents and home prices in nasty parts of the country doing?

    Prices for beautiful rare coins are going higher? what a surprise!

    how are prices for common coins in nasty condition doing?

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Negative interest rates actually promotes deflation.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I don't have the time or desire to do a deep dive on the subject


    Then perhaps before you make a statement like " the sub prime auto finance default rate is at disturbing levels", you should take the time to truly understand what you are saying.

    Its so in vogue these days to just spout off the popular mantras which im sure gets great admiration from the neophytes, but does little to build trust and confidence.

    Its like that stupid TV show "survivor". Its always the less weak of the weak that "wins". In my book, that isnt a win. >>



    Nice selective editing, Cohodk. You would do well at MSNBC or the New York Times.

    You question was.....

    """"Are today's delinquencies comparable to the rates in 2008-2010? Has the average age if a car risen since 2008? What us the life expectancy if a car?""""

    Now are you truly suggesting that to have a legitimate and coherent opinion on whether subprime auto loans are at risk, I need to fully research the delinquency rates of 2008, 2009, and 2010?

    Do I also need to know the average age of a car today vs 2008?

    And should I research the life expectancy of each car by brand and model to have an informed decision on current default rates and why the risk is being grossly underpriced?

    That is quite a hurdle for a forum debate and frankly has little impact on the question on the table.

    I believe that the current non performance statistics vs the under market rates charged and the promised return to bondholders are sufficient to determine that these bonds will soon go into default if not supported by a government bailout.

    It is Sunday though so I will put on the favorite forum, rose colored glasses, sip a Corona or two and pretend that all is well in the financial world.


















  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Negative interest rates actually promotes deflation. >>


    Normally negative interest rates promote spending (why save?). Spending increases demand. Increased demand promotes higher prices.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Your contention is that car sales are only strong due to "free money". I say they are string due to the need for replacement.

    You say auto loan default is dangerously high. I say the default rate is much lower than in previous years and is historically quite normal.

    In your, and others', relentless pursuit of negativity are overlooking and/or are incapable of seeing anything positive.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • ebaytraderebaytrader Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Negative interest rates actually promotes deflation. >>


    Normally negative interest rates promote spending (why save?). Spending increases demand. Increased demand promotes higher prices. >>



    Cohodk is spot on, and cash would become KING.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Your contention is that car sales are only strong due to "free money". I say they are string due to the need for replacement.

    You say auto loan default is dangerously high. I say the default rate is much lower than in previous years and is historically quite normal.

    In your, and others', relentless pursuit of negativity are overlooking and/or are incapable of seeing anything positive. >>


    Sorry, they broke in 2008.

    image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Usually when something breaks they fix it. Just sayin' image
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Usually when something breaks they fix it. Just sayin' image >>


    When "they" fix 2008, I'll fix my rosey glasses. image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Usually when something breaks they fix it. Just sayin' image >>


    When "they" fix 2008, I'll fix my rosey glasses. image >>



    So better to sit in a dark cave waiting for "them" to say the coast is clear? Imagine if Columbus never wore his rosey glasses.
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Usually when something breaks they fix it. Just sayin' image >>


    When "they" fix 2008, I'll fix my rosey glasses. image >>



    So better to sit in a dark cave waiting for "them" to say the coast is clear? Imagine if Columbus never wore his rosey glasses. >>


    During his first voyage in 1492, instead of reaching Japan as he had intended, Columbus landed in the Bahamas archipelago, at a locale he named San Salvador. The glasses probably fogged his vision.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Usually when something breaks they fix it. Just sayin' image >>


    When "they" fix 2008, I'll fix my rosey glasses. image >>



    So better to sit in a dark cave waiting for "them" to say the coast is clear? Imagine if Columbus never wore his rosey glasses. >>


    During his first voyage in 1492, instead of reaching Japan as he had intended, Columbus landed in the Bahamas archipelago, at a locale he named San Salvador. The glasses probably fogged his vision.

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Your contention is that car sales are only strong due to "free money". I say they are string due to the need for replacement.

    You say auto loan default is dangerously high. I say the default rate is much lower than in previous years and is historically quite normal.

    In your, and others', relentless pursuit of negativity are overlooking and/or are incapable of seeing anything positive. >>



    It is difficult to see much positive with a JV administration and its puppet fed chiefs saran wrapping problems with previously failed socialist policy and hoping against hope that they work.

    Strong auto sales are a combination of demand as well as stealing money from savers and handing it over to borrowers at rates substantially below true risk rates. All risk can be properly rated to mitigate losses but in an artificially rigged market, those looking for a better than guaranteed return on investment are going to get slaughtered.

    If your magic mirror shows that the national work participation rate will bounce substantially higher that current 35 year lows and real wages will rise to at least keep pace with inflation and the ACA part time work week that new hires are facing will correct to 36-40 hour work weeks, than your prediction of a buoyant, sustainable, non default auto market may prove true.

    The cynic and realist in me does not see that occurring anytime soon
  • GrumpyEdGrumpyEd Posts: 4,749 ✭✭✭
    I notice that some new cars offer low interest or even near zero interest if you have good credit and buy when they offer it and use their financing.
    If you offer cash, they don't drop the price except that you might get cashback, maybe $1000 but the interest on a 4 year loan even at a low rate would be several times that much.

    Maybe the finance/interest and some cost for risk of defaults are already at least partly worked into the car prices.

    I always avoid car payments but when buying a car it seems like it's ignoring near zero interest.


    Ed
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭
    $3.89 for 9 strips of store brand cooked bacon, which explains why we haven't had it for a while when wifey shops.
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    $2.15 for small planter of roses at Trader Joe's.


    Well worth it !
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>$2.15 for small planter of roses at Trader Joe's.


    Well worth it ! >>



    Roses??? What did you do that you need to buy roses??? image
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>$2.15 for small planter of roses at Trader Joe's.


    Well worth it ! >>



    Roses??? What did you do that you need to buy roses??? image >>



    Just a nice gesture. Getting in trouble requires the $75 ones. image
  • bronco2078bronco2078 Posts: 10,244 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    Just a nice gesture. Getting in trouble requires the $75 ones. image >>




    The Raider's Reef incident? image
  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,661 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Dozen yellow roses $10 plus a mixed yellow/orange/red bouquet $5, another dollar and change tax, $16.18 out the door yesterday

    image

    and two silver dimes in the change, not kidding. Just realized, heading back not but it may be too late to get more

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
    Good deal, Baley, especially with the silver dimes.

    Never really got the spread on roses from a couple of bucks to $100. Certainly a quality difference (I think), but they all expire in a few days.
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,899 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'm saving about $6,000 on health insurance by paying the fine.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 5,409 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Wild sockeye salmon, the dark red good stuff - $17.99/lb today at the market. Farm raised, chemical full, light pink stuff was like $10.
  • guitarwesguitarwes Posts: 9,266 ✭✭✭
    Gas- $3.11, falling from $3.15 yesterday.
    Cows/Beef- still insane
    Bacon- $4.98 12oz packs
    30yr refi, cash out, closing costs rolled in- 4.25%
    Private Health Insurance- up 47% from last year
    @ Elite CNC Routing & Woodworks on Facebook. Check out my work.
    Too many positive BST transactions with too many members to list.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,941 ✭✭✭✭✭
    image

    The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Wild sockeye salmon, the dark red good stuff - $17.99/lb today at the market. Farm raised, chemical full, light pink stuff was like $10. >>



    ....and of course the Fed considers the farm raised dreck to be superior to the good stuff, so it is really less expensive than it was 20 years ago.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,124 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>image >>



    image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • mariner67mariner67 Posts: 2,746 ✭✭✭
    ..and of course the Fed considers the farm raised dreck to be superior to the good stuff... "

    I assume this is more tongue in cheek exaggeration on your part as we all know how bad nutritionally and environmentally farm raised salmon is.
    If not, can you provide a link to substantiate your statement please.
    Successful trades/buys/sells with gdavis70, adriana, wondercoin, Weiss, nibanny, IrishMike, commoncents05, pf70collector, kyleknap, barefootjuan, coindeuce, WhiteTornado, Nefprollc, ajw, JamesM, PCcoins, slinc, coindudeonebay,beernuts, and many more
  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>..and of course the Fed considers the farm raised dreck to be superior to the good stuff... "

    I assume this is more tongue in cheek exaggeration on your part as we all know how bad nutritionally and environmentally farm raised salmon is.
    If not, can you provide a link to substantiate your statement please. >>



    Half in jest Mariner. Reality though is their is little doubt that the fed considers the farm raised fish to be at least the equal of the natural salmon when making price comparisons.

    Same is true of the genetically engineered crap food that barely existed 20 years ago. Fed does not factor in the added healthcare cost, they just see a potato from 1994 vs a potato from 2014.
  • CoulportCoulport Posts: 1,087 ✭✭✭
    Hunts pasta sauce. Old can from pantry was 26 oz. new can from the store is 24 oz. wife said price was the same. Also indicates other can goods doing the same thing. Reduce amount for the same price or more.
    The most money I made are on coins I haven't sold.

    Got quoins?
  • cladkingcladking Posts: 28,668 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I heartell chuck beef is being sold near Waldorf, MD @ $6.67 / Lb.
    Tempus fugit.
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 19,187 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Hunts pasta sauce. Old can from pantry was 26 oz. new can from the store is 24 oz. wife said price was the same. Also indicates other can goods doing the same thing. Reduce amount for the same price or more. >>



    Hopefully we will see a reduction in waistlines also!!
    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

  • MGLICKERMGLICKER Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Hunts pasta sauce. Old can from pantry was 26 oz. new can from the store is 24 oz. wife said price was the same. Also indicates other can goods doing the same thing. Reduce amount for the same price or more. >>



    The can no doubt started out as 32 oz.
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,670 ✭✭✭
    I think you will hear an uproar when they no longer will offer gallon of milk anymore.
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