Forum member inflation report.
MGLICKER
Posts: 7,995 ✭✭✭
No doubt that at the end of 2014, the fed chair will look down and opine that they are working feverishly to fight deflation, stating that the rate for the year was barely over 1%.
I disagree.
One or two examples of rising prices are worthless, but forum members purchase a number of things. Please state which have risen in price and which have declined. Try to omit short term sale prices which can be distorting. I will sift through all of this at years end and try to make some non scientific sense of the numbers.
I disagree.
One or two examples of rising prices are worthless, but forum members purchase a number of things. Please state which have risen in price and which have declined. Try to omit short term sale prices which can be distorting. I will sift through all of this at years end and try to make some non scientific sense of the numbers.
1
Comments
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.
Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks.
Today's Mars bar is 51 grams, compared to 62.5 grams in 2007; price remains the same
<< <i>Another sign of inflation to look for is portion/package sizes. Companies will often trim a few grams or an ounce off the portions you buy, while maintaining the same price.
Today's Mars bar is 51 grams, compared to 62.5 grams in 2007; price remains the same >>
otherwise known as product deflation.
A big trend at restaurants.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Deflation is a good thing. It is nothing more than the market returning to reality (as in real estate prices, and yes, current gold prices). It is only disliked by those that gain from inflation. That would be your banker, your tax collector and others who have their hand in your pocket before the money even gets dropped into it. >>
Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant.
This morning the wifey and I had a discussion on our daily-grocery cost. She said it had rose from an average of $40/day in CO to now $70/day* in HI. That's for a family of 6 with smoe with food allergies and other issues. We buy whole foods, no processed junk , no hormonally injected garbage, etc....
*I think the $70/day was an exaggeration. She's Irish and likes to "talk story."
<< <i>My inflation experience is more regional.
This morning the wifey and I had a discussion on our daily-grocery cost. She said it had rose from an average of $40/day in CO to now $70/day* in HI. That's for a family of 6 with smoe with food allergies and other issues. We buy whole foods, no processed junk , no hormonally injected garbage, etc....
*I think the $70/day was an exaggeration. She's Irish and likes to "talk story."
I distribute bread for a living. When I started in 2006 the pre-priced retail on a loaf was $2.89 today it is $4.49. 6pk bagels were $2.99 now $4.69.
though we have not had an increase in over a year.
<< <i>
Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>
I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Dentist upped the teeth cleaning fee from $71 to 74 since July.
Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.
Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks. >>
so, you gonna skip the teeth cleaning or scrape up the extra $3?
And the almonds, gonna cut back to 11/13 of a pound when you buy them, or somehow find $2 somewhere and go for the full pound?
my gosh, what a crisis! we for sure gonna panic at these exhorbitant costs
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>
Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>
I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>
You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty.
<< <i>
<< <i>Dentist upped the teeth cleaning fee from $71 to 74 since July.
Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.
Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks. >>
so, you gonna skip the teeth cleaning or scrape up the extra $3?
And the almonds, gonna cut back to 11/13 of a pound when you buy them, or somehow find $2 somewhere and go for the full pound?
my gosh, what a crisis! we for sure gonna panic at these exhorbitant costs
Those were a couple of examples of what I see as a return to a steady, broadly based inflation. Teeth got cleaned but Almonds were eliminated. I switched to raw sesame seeds at 1/3 the price. According to the fed, the almonds would no longer count as inflationary as I no longer consume them.
It really does not take much to maintain the current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years. Apparently you shop at a better and cheaper grocery than the rest of us.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>
I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>
You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty. >>
It ain't gonna be pretty for someone in the 91st or 87th or 76th percentile in assets and or income in this country? uh oh! For those somewhere in there, what should they do??
I just do not find overall prices advancing that fast, on average... what I see is seasonal changes, and supply and demand changes, in both directions.
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Has any food went down? Gas it is 10% ethanol? My feed prices are the same as last year with corn price 30%+ cheaper
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>
I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>
You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty. >>
It ain't gonna be pretty for someone in the 91st or 87th or 76th percentile in assets and or income in this country? uh oh! For those somewhere in there, what should they do??
I just do not find overall prices advancing that fast, on average... what I see is seasonal changes, and supply and demand changes, in both directions. >>
Be prepared, but of course if you think this time is no different, you can carry like the sheeple.
Looked like decent cuts, but certainly were not tenderloin.
Stock Market
Housing Market
Corporations
High end art/antique/collectibles markets.....yes, even the top 1% rare coins
Health Insurance and health care
Higher education including the more selective prep schools, and even nursery schools.
Very little trickle down there. J6P is only aware of trickle up.
Legend's FUN market report says that $100K is the new $10K. Sounds like tangible asset price inflation to me.
<< <i>The FED has successfully help channel all the 2012-2013 inflation into things that benefit the top 1-10%:
Stock Market
Housing Market
Corporations
High end art/antique/collectibles markets.....yes, even the top 1% rare coins
Health Insurance and health care
Higher education including the more selective prep schools, and even nursery schools.
Very little trickle down there. J6P is only aware of trickle up. >>
sounds like another conspiracy fact.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>The brand of coffee that I purchase in the supermarket can size has shrunk to 1" less in height... but the cost remained the same. >>
Yes, the lb went from 16 to 12 oz and the last look alike package had 11 oz marked on it. And I agree that you see it the most with groceries.
<< <i>
<< <i>The brand of coffee that I purchase in the supermarket can size has shrunk to 1" less in height... but the cost remained the same. >>
Yes, the lb went from 16 to 12 oz and the last look alike package had 11 oz marked on it. And I agree that you see it the most with groceries. >>
The reduction in "quantity" and "quality" of many items is a hidden inflation. Bought a gallon of paint lately?
Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago.
"Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers?
groceries and restaurants.
Largest increase is health care.
This is offset by real estate prices and electronics like TV's and computers.
<< <i>"Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers? >>
One can get whatever results one wants by choosing the method used to determine inflation
Why and how official inflation is underreported
Health care vs. electronics is a great example of government involvement with the market vs. little to no governemnt involvement with the market.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Now I'm hungry.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Steve
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>
Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.
On another note, 20 years ago the post office would ship a 2lb Priority anywhere in the nation for $3. Today it is $10.
That is not a factor of conservative government monetary policy, but really stepping down on regulation and improved technology.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>
<< <i>Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>
Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.
Even better....
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>
Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.
Even better....
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/ >>
Nice try but a fail. Using you inflation adjusted chart, the 20 year rates 1993 until 2011 (end of charting info date) Went from 410 to 360. My understanding is that rates are up 10% in the last twelve months, which would bring us to and inflation adjusted wash. Question is what inflation rate are they using for the adjustment?
I believe that you are using the 30 numbers now instead of the 20 that you originally stated to demonstrate the efficiency created with much less government regulation. That point was noted in my case for lower telecom costs but has nothing to do with reckless government spending and monetary policy.
If something drops from 100 to 50 over 5 years then back to 100 over the next 5, was there inflation?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>How is the US govt involved in the price of a computer or TV. Or VCRs and calculators? >>
they're not. Explains better new products at cheaper price. Free market forces vs. gov. market forces
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
Jimmy Dean sausage $2.99 lb at 1 store, $5.29 at another. No more 1/2 gallons of ice cream. Size shrunk, price increased. Chunky chili was 19 oz., now
15. That's the solution. Same price, but get less.
The government is incapable of ever managing the economy. That is why communism collapsed. It is now socialism’s turn - Martin Armstrong
<< <i>I remember flying from the Northeast to Florida for about $400 15-20 years ago. Now its less than $300 and a greater choice of times.
If something drops from 100 to 50 over 5 years then back to 100 over the next 5, was there inflation? >>
There certainly has been for me when it comes to luggage. Used to be free.
It's hard to say with something like airlines, because it all depends on the routes that are flown and what airlines are operating in the region. I have not seen those price savings in Nebraska.
<< <i>One Item that has come down significantly in price is telecommunications. With Obama I get everything that used to cost me $100 for $4 a month, which is a land line with unlimited long distance.
That is not a factor of conservative government monetary policy, but really stepping down on regulation and improved technology. >>
Yeah, I pay about $8 a month for unlimited long distance land line.....but.....only as an add-on to my cable TV - BB internet package that runs $120/month. It would be far more money if purchased w/o cable.
The other side of the "cheap" land line is the fortune that cell phone companies are making on premium packages of $500-$1500/yr. Getting harder to compare a dinosaur like land line with cell phone supply/demand.
The American people are smart enough to notice the cost of air fares, food, phones, and gas. So there will be maximum effort to keep those in a range...while the things we don't notice so easily are jacked as high
as can be withstood (taxes, education, health care, professional services labor (lawyers, cpa's, plumbers, electricians, mechanics), municipal and govt fees, etc.). And now that people are starting to catch on to the shrinkage
in grocery store packages, the next step is filling them with air. It's a "shame" that they have to post per pound pricing. But, I think most shoppers can't figure that out, especially when confused with 2 for 1 and 3 for 2 pricing.
My FUN show air fares back around 2002-2004 were in the $210-$260 range. And those were the cheapest flights I could arrange for out of Connecticut.
Still waiting........
<< <i>On another note, 20 years ago the post office would ship a 2lb Priority anywhere in the nation for $3. Today it is $10. >>
The Post Office has really jacked up prices on things like Priority Mail, international mail, parcels, and registered mail over the past few years. The price of a basic first class stamp is still 46 cents but that's mostly politics -- it's what the media focuses on, so the Post Offices usually raises it just one or two cents.
The Post Office's own website admits that "Stamp prices have stayed consistent with the average annual rate of inflation of 4.2 percent since the Postal Service was formed in 1971." Yeah, the government tells us that inflation is only 2% or close to zero, but the Post Office (which is part of government) admits the real number is a lot higher.
These little differences in inflation really add up. With inflation of 4.2% annually, a product which cost $10 in 1971 would cost over $56 today.
If inflation were only 2% during that period the same product would only cost $23.
Pink slime in hamburger is inflation. Horsemeat in TV dinners , well that might be fraud , but if not its inflation. Things like TV's are supposed to be getting cheaper and they are but the quality is declining so that is still showing inflation , its the pink slime effect again. Airfare , well it depends on where you go and where you leave from. It also helps that the costs are being subsidized by taxpayers. If they were out of pocket for the ridiculous security theater air travelers have to deal with what would ticket prices be?
Oops... but wait... that is just a tax increase, not inflation.... or is it?
<< <i>""Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers? "
Still waiting........ >>
Ok, I miscalculated, we are in a period of deflation. Increases in education, groceries, postage, air travel, housing, cable, utilities and medical care are all an illusion.