Baltimore Sun 7 days a week at around $450 a year is very expensive. I only get it for my mom because she is not internet savvy. I see the printed newspaper going away because of high costs. You can get deals but these eventually go away. I could threaten to cancel and get a break but don't mind keeping the only main newspaper in town afloat.
Pathology lab tests and radiology costs are through the roof - makes the 2.5X increase in propane look like a bargain. Well, at least ipads are staying relatively stable.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Pathology lab tests and radiology costs are through the roof - makes the 2.5X increase in propane look like a bargain. Well, at least ipads are staying relatively stable. >>
Time to invest in enterprises providing lab tests and xrays? Propane and crude oil? And divest holdings from print newspapers and "me too" electronics? Check!
Time to invest in enterprises providing lab tests and xrays? Propane and crude oil? And divest holdings from print newspapers and "me too" electronics? Check!
The point being that inflation is impacting people where they spend money, whether or not you buy or sell the right stocks. Buying or selling the right stocks doesn't have too much to do with inflation.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
if your stock investing budget is 5% of your salary and your housing costs are 40% of your salary , then the housing is a lot more important.
What is housing as represented on a chart anyway? Does it just cover a monthly rent or mortgage payment or are we to believe it includes one of those plus the real estate taxes, utilities, insurance etc?
How come inflation charts and graphs never have a taxes category?
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Stable though for the last year of two so we can't blame them. >>
Can't blame you, either, you made a willing transaction at their price, yes? Wanted the food they way they make it, more than you wanted the money, yes? Could have decided to fill yer belly with the same kind of food from the grocery store for maybe 1/5 of the price, yet went the take-out route. Says much
<< <i> Buying or selling the right stocks doesn't have too much to do with inflation. >>
buying and selling the right Something has a lot to do with keeping ahead of inflation, if the reports of high inflation, and the prediction of higher inflation, are accurate
the "somethings" that people choose, in billions of transactions every day, are what make the markets. It's somewhat amusing when people lament their own choices
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Stable though for the last year of two so we can't blame them. >>
Can't blame you, either, you made a willing transaction at their price, yes? Wanted the food they way they make it, more than you wanted the money, yes? Could have decided to fill yer belly with the same kind of food from the grocery store for maybe 1/5 of the price, yet went the take-out route. Says much >>
Girlfriend treated.
Had I been paying, I probably would have opted for Lebanese food. Taboulli, Baba Ganoush, Hummus and Dolmades would had set me back about $32 with tip for the same meal for two and to me, more enjoyable.
Do not confuse the necessity of a purchase with the inflation rate, though that is what Washington is leaning to with talk of a chained rate of inflation.
Under their logic, if the sushi becomes too costly at $50 and I switch to Pizza for example, then the cost of the sushi is no longer an issue to me as I no longer buy it. As time goes by and I can only afford cold gruel, to the pinheads in DC, the inflation rate would still be zero as I was spending the same $10 for my dinner even though I had degraded through the economic food chain to a filling, yet maybe unsatisfying alternative.
buying and selling the right Something has a lot to do with keeping ahead of inflation, if the reports of high inflation, and the prediction of higher inflation, are accurate
the "somethings" that people choose, in billions of transactions every day, are what make the markets. It's somewhat amusing when people lament their own choices
I didn't mean to go over your head, sir. Let's deconstruct a bit. I saw no lament here. Nobody was talking about keeping ahead of inflation either, and no one here has challenged your portfolio management proficiency (well, not too much anyhow). The question was about where people see evidence of inflation taking place, not about how to beat it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It is often a losers game to invest in a market as we have today. The deck is heavily rigged in favor of the spender, not the saver.
Result is a near zero return (and a negative real return) on bank deposits. Ah, but the stock market has done well, you say. But that has been largely a bankers gambit as the outsiders have largely been late to the game. Going forward, the new money will pay record high equity prices in real terms, and at best play catch up as the Japanese have done since the 1989 peak of the Nikkei.
For about forever it seemed, hospitals declared that their fees were so high because 2/3 of those entering the emergency rooms had no insurance coverage.
Now that everyone is covered under the ACA , will these institutions drop rates by a half or more as a result of this windfall?
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Sounds like your town could use a little competition. Business opportunity? How's your Japanese? >>
Interesting that next to Mexican restaurants, Sushi is the number two type of ethnic eatery in Tucson. This place has the best Japanese food in town and is quite competitive. Several offer all you can eat, which in my experience have been on a continuum of lousy to barely ok. None that I would return to.
No thanks on the restaurant business. Under good circumstances the failure rate is high. In this stagulated economy, chances of success look slim.
Here's a pretty good article, breakfast is going to get more expensive, but it's not due to monetary inflation, or the Fed printing money. No, there are other supply/demand reasons, which, when sorted out, will allow prices to decline again. edit: oh, and the comments below the article are just precious! will resonate with many here
<< <i>the point was that monetary policy is not the only cause of price changes. >>
I got that figured out. Clearly monetary policy did not double the wholesale cost of coffee from $1.00 to $2.00 in three months.
On the other hand, Gasoline hit a staggering 65c per gallon during the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Today, even with cars sipping only half as much fuel per mile as the 70's tanks and US oil at record production, a gallon costs $3.30.
That Baley is the result of monetary policy. Fed quadrupled the money supply from 1973 to 2004. Better than quadrupled it again from 2008 to 2013. Continues to add to the $4T money supply by over 1% each month (even with the taper).
Many things cause price changes, primarily changes in supply or demand. Current monetary policy affects prices in two ways: destruction of purchasing power will increase prices at some point and and the FED is uselessly hoping that zero percent interest rate policy will stimulate demand. The purchasing power of a nation's currency can also be greatly affected by other types of policy. The unfortunate goal of monetary policy is to alter supply or demand to achieve price and spending goals. Housing bubble is an excellent example that misguided monetary policy can have a temporary and often negative affect on an economy.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
And good thing, too, right? If things were how they should be, instead of how they are, then how would those who understand that things are not how they should be, have the advantage over those who wish things were how they should be, or think that they already are?
<< <i>....destruction of purchasing power will increase prices at some point and and the FED is uselessly hoping that zero percent interest rate policy will stimulate demand....The unfortunate goal of monetary policy is to alter supply or demand to achieve price and spending goals. Housing bubble is an excellent example that misguided monetary policy can have a temporary and often negative affect on an economy. >>
derryb: By "uselessly hoping" I wonder what you mean? ZIRP has stimulated demand in the housing market, automobile market, equity markets, and countless other things. The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. We know the "savers" are being punished but we don't know where this leads and neither does The Fed.
<< <i>....destruction of purchasing power will increase prices at some point and and the FED is uselessly hoping that zero percent interest rate policy will stimulate demand....The unfortunate goal of monetary policy is to alter supply or demand to achieve price and spending goals. Housing bubble is an excellent example that misguided monetary policy can have a temporary and often negative affect on an economy. >>
derryb: By "uselessly hoping" I wonder what you mean? ZIRP has stimulated demand in the housing market, automobile market, equity markets, and countless other things. The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. We know the "savers" are being punished but we don't know where this leads and neither does The Fed. >>
FED's ZIRP "stimulus" has not had the desired affect of increasing consumer spending, not even recently:
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy.
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy. >>
That's actually a good analogy. I agree with derryb's M2V chart but the money is still being created, just not moving out of the hands that grab it very fast! U.S. housing prices are back to 90% of their 2006 peak, equity markets are at all-time highs, automobile sales also. Not saying it's all well and good because year after year after year of unprecedented monetary stimulus has been required to keep the boat afloat. Just that our monetary policy has allowed us to create the illusion that all is well and good for a great many people (the masses).
I sincerely hope we accept the needed reset of our economy and find a way to get D.C. back into the hands of the American people and out of Wall Street's hip pocket. Until we do, D.C. will keep kicking the can through the U.S. Treasury and emptying it into a bottomless hole.
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy. >>
That's actually a good analogy. I agree with derryb's M2V chart but the money is still being created, just not moving out of the hands that grab it very fast! U.S. housing prices are back to 90% of their 2006 peak, equity markets are at all-time highs, automobile sales also. Not saying it's all well and good because year after year after year of unprecedented monetary stimulus has been required to keep the boat afloat. Just that our monetary policy has allowed us to create the illusion that all is well and good for a great many people (the masses).
I sincerely hope we accept the needed reset of our economy and find a way to get D.C. back into the hands of the American people and out of Wall Street's hip pocket. Until we do, D.C. will keep kicking the can through the U.S. Treasury and emptying it into a bottomless hole. >>
If you could remove the all cash buyers from the housing market would the housing prices be at 90% of the peak?
I got that figured out. Clearly monetary policy did not double the wholesale cost of coffee from $1.00 to $2.00 in three months.
It was Goldman Sachs or JPM "monetary policy" that caused the coffee spike. But the first step is "helping" the commodity to reach a major and unheard of bottom so you can flip from short to long.
The long term side effects of ZIRP (with 5-10% yoy increases in monetary supply and debt) are already well known. That sucks the life out of economies. Knock-knock....Japan 1990-date. ZIRP isn't bad if you keep the monetary supply and debt consistent with population or true economic growth. Increasing otc derivatives by 1,000X in 20 yrs is not the "growth" we're after. Owning bad derivatives,bad debt and even bad loans is really what it is all about.
The banks and other protected financial institutions are the ones buying the bulk of the "bad" mortgage loans. They still assume that they will be back stopped by the FED & Co. The are probably writing otc derivatives "to protect" themselves in the case the bad loans fail. Bail out city. Even if the loans might be mostly bad....if you still own most of them (Pottersvilles) then you have all the cards. I don't see the 90% figure in northeast housing prices. Maybe 80-85% might be closer to the truth with hubs like Boston being the exception.
1970-1980---First baby boomers are turning 25 and starting families. They are buying houses, cars and having babies of their own. They are spending money. 1980-1990---First baby boomers are now turning 35 and becoming established in their jobs. Still remembering the values instilled by their parents they invest in the stock market and spend conservatively. 1990-2000--First baby boomers are now turning 45 and doing well in their jobs. Kids are graduating college and they have more free cash flow. They buy bigger cars, bigger houses, latest gadgets. The latter group of boomers is now turning 35 and is now forming families (having focused on careers first) and spending lots of money. Its is a perfect storm of economic growth. 2000-2008--First boomers are now turning 55 and looking at retirement. After getting caught up in the stock market bubble they decide to diversify and buy real estate, gold and other assets. They are tying up their money for long term (reducing velocity). The second group of boomers is trying to get everything their older siblings have--nicer cars, bigger houses, latest gadgets--money is free flowing but they are also investing for long term--real estate, gold, ect., and creating another bubble. 2008-now--Baby boomers are scared. They see 60-80% of their life has passed. They dont know what to do. They are not spending. They are pessimistic. Money velocity falls off a cliff.
The FED cannot change investor or consumer psychology, especially when a common psychology is shared buy such a large demographic base.
The velocity chart proves "The FED cannot change consumer psychology," hard as they may try. Investor psychology is another story - they are betting on the FED.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Cat adoptions at PetSmart are only $25. It was $99 before. Different agency is now sponsoring the program at the local store.
May have to pick up a new little buddy! >>
If you go to your local shelter and ask for a senior cat or dog you can sometimes get them free.
The older animals don't get adopted very often but they make the best pets.
Older animals are full of surprises , one of the senior cats I picked up that way was trained to use the toilet by its previous owner . It's the damnedest thing to walk around the corner and see the cat perched on the throne
Don't know about your area but meat is up in price in just a week Rump roast $2.99, now $3.99. Cod $4.99 now $6.99. Local rancher stated he is getting much higher prices for beef and expects it to increase. Huge pig farm was bought by the Chinese here and the pork is exported. Less supply, higher costs, right? We buy very little bacon now due to cost. My son is checking into getting us a half of beef to save money.
The most money I made are on coins I haven't sold.
<< <i>Don't know about your area but meat is up in price in just a week >>
I eat a vegan diet but have noticed the meet and fish ads at the local market topping the $10 threshold frequently. These are the sale prices. Better cuts I am sure, but feeding a family has become challenging to many.
Same on the non meat side. Organic nuts are $15.00 a pound.
But noooo inflation apparently in some of the poster neighborhoods.
Yeah you can still get Ramen Noodles for 25c a pack so the fed thinks we are doing ok.
FWIW--I just bought 3 pounds of bacon at Walmart for $7.88. Yes, its the ends pieces, but I find there to be much more meat. Even if I throw away 1/3 due to excessive fat, then thats still less than $4 a pound compared to the nicely presented and packaged stuff for $5.99 for 12 oz.
Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples.
<< <i>Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples. >>
Everything beyond gruel is a lifestyle choice.
I gave up on the nuts a year or so when prices topped $12. have not given up on the organic though and switched to seeds; sesame, pumpkin and sunflower. About 1/3 the cost of the nuts but as much nutrition.
That plays into the Feds bogus inflation numbers which a few of you seem to buy into.
As I can no longer afford the $15 nuts and have switched to $5 seeds, my cost of eating has been reduced, so my cost of living has really declined.
Bogus accounting that would certainly please Max Bialystock!
<< <i>Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples. >>
Everything beyond gruel is a lifestyle choice.
I gave up on the nuts a year or so when prices topped $12. have not given up on the organic though and switched to seeds; sesame, pumpkin and sunflower. About 1/3 the cost of the nuts but as much nutrition.
That plays into the Feds bogus inflation numbers which a few of you seem to buy into.
As I can no longer afford the $15 nuts and have switched to $5 seeds, my cost of eating has been reduced, so my cost of living has really declined.
Bogus accounting that would certainly please Max Bialystock! >>
By the same logic, only the basics can be considered in calculating inflation. A one bedroom apartment on the crappy side of town would count, but not a nice 3 bedroom home in a decent area. A car trip upstate would be counted, as long as you stay at a Motel Six and not the Hilton.
Nice, like new clothing from the second hand store are countable, but wander into Old Navy and you are making a lifestyle choice of luxury that does not factor into the CPI? You fellas must be kidding.
Comments
Box of 20
Pops to about $17 a week after that though. Will not be a problem though as the subscription will terminate at the new rate.
Accepting that deal likely loses them money.
Brilliant plan
Must be that special on the New York Times that offset the crude oil increase.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Pathology lab tests and radiology costs are through the roof - makes the 2.5X increase in propane look like a bargain. Well, at least ipads are staying relatively stable.
Time to invest in enterprises providing lab tests and xrays? Propane and crude oil? And divest holdings from print newspapers and "me too" electronics?
Check!
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
Stable though for the last year of two so we can't blame them.
The point being that inflation is impacting people where they spend money, whether or not you buy or sell the right stocks. Buying or selling the right stocks doesn't have too much to do with inflation.
I knew it would happen.
if your stock investing budget is 5% of your salary and your housing costs are 40% of your salary , then the housing is a lot more important.
What is housing as represented on a chart anyway? Does it just cover a monthly rent or mortgage payment or are we to believe it includes one of those plus the real estate taxes, utilities, insurance etc?
How come inflation charts and graphs never have a taxes category?
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Stable though for the last year of two so we can't blame them. >>
Can't blame you, either, you made a willing transaction at their price, yes? Wanted the food they way they make it, more than you wanted the money, yes?
Could have decided to fill yer belly with the same kind of food from the grocery store for maybe 1/5 of the price, yet went the take-out route. Says much
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i> Buying or selling the right stocks doesn't have too much to do with inflation. >>
buying and selling the right Something has a lot to do with keeping ahead of inflation, if the reports of high inflation, and the prediction of higher inflation, are accurate
the "somethings" that people choose, in billions of transactions every day, are what make the markets. It's somewhat amusing when people lament their own choices
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Stable though for the last year of two so we can't blame them. >>
Can't blame you, either, you made a willing transaction at their price, yes? Wanted the food they way they make it, more than you wanted the money, yes?
Could have decided to fill yer belly with the same kind of food from the grocery store for maybe 1/5 of the price, yet went the take-out route. Says much
Girlfriend treated.
Had I been paying, I probably would have opted for Lebanese food. Taboulli, Baba Ganoush, Hummus and Dolmades would had set me back about $32 with tip for the same meal for two and to me, more enjoyable.
Do not confuse the necessity of a purchase with the inflation rate, though that is what Washington is leaning to with talk of a chained rate of inflation.
Under their logic, if the sushi becomes too costly at $50 and I switch to Pizza for example, then the cost of the sushi is no longer an issue to me as I no longer buy it. As time goes by and I can only afford cold gruel, to the pinheads in DC, the inflation rate would still be zero as I was spending the same $10 for my dinner even though I had degraded through the economic food chain to a filling, yet maybe unsatisfying alternative.
the "somethings" that people choose, in billions of transactions every day, are what make the markets. It's somewhat amusing when people lament their own choices
I didn't mean to go over your head, sir. Let's deconstruct a bit. I saw no lament here. Nobody was talking about keeping ahead of inflation either, and no one here has challenged your portfolio management proficiency (well, not too much anyhow
I knew it would happen.
Result is a near zero return (and a negative real return) on bank deposits. Ah, but the stock market has done well, you say. But that has been largely a bankers gambit as the outsiders have largely been late to the game. Going forward, the new money will pay record high equity prices in real terms, and at best play catch up as the Japanese have done since the 1989 peak of the Nikkei.
Now that everyone is covered under the ACA
Sounds like your town could use a little competition. Business opportunity? How's your Japanese?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
<< <i>Visited the Sushi joint for a carryout yesterday. $50 for a bag of beans, seaweed, rice and maybe 4 ounces of Salmon.
Sounds like your town could use a little competition. Business opportunity? How's your Japanese? >>
Interesting that next to Mexican restaurants, Sushi is the number two type of ethnic eatery in Tucson. This place has the best Japanese food in town and is quite competitive. Several offer all you can eat, which in my experience have been on a continuum of lousy to barely ok. None that I would return to.
No thanks on the restaurant business. Under good circumstances the failure rate is high. In this stagulated economy, chances of success look slim.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
No, there are other supply/demand reasons, which, when sorted out, will allow prices to decline again.
edit: oh, and the comments below the article are just precious! will resonate with many here
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Here's a pretty good article, breakfast is going to get more expensive, but it's not due to monetary inflation, or the Fed printing money. >>
Of course Baley. Monetary policy could never, ever cause prices to rise!
<< <i>
<< <i>Here's a pretty good article, breakfast is going to get more expensive, but it's not due to monetary inflation, or the Fed printing money. >>
Of course Baley. Monetary policy could never, ever cause prices to rise!
the point was that monetary policy is not the only cause of price changes.
Particularly in the short term.
But you know that.
or do you?
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>the point was that monetary policy is not the only cause of price changes. >>
I got that figured out. Clearly monetary policy did not double the wholesale cost of coffee from $1.00 to $2.00 in three months.
On the other hand, Gasoline hit a staggering 65c per gallon during the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Today, even with cars sipping only half as much fuel per mile as the 70's tanks and US oil at record production, a gallon costs $3.30.
That Baley is the result of monetary policy. Fed quadrupled the money supply from 1973 to 2004. Better than quadrupled it again from 2008 to 2013. Continues to add to the $4T money supply by over 1% each month (even with the taper).
Better fill up your tank, good friend!
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>....destruction of purchasing power will increase prices at some point and and the FED is uselessly hoping that zero percent interest rate policy will stimulate demand....The unfortunate goal of monetary policy is to alter supply or demand to achieve price and spending goals. Housing bubble is an excellent example that misguided monetary policy can have a temporary and often negative affect on an economy. >>
derryb: By "uselessly hoping" I wonder what you mean? ZIRP has stimulated demand in the housing market, automobile market, equity markets, and countless other things. The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. We know the "savers" are being punished but we don't know where this leads and neither does The Fed.
<< <i>
<< <i>....destruction of purchasing power will increase prices at some point and and the FED is uselessly hoping that zero percent interest rate policy will stimulate demand....The unfortunate goal of monetary policy is to alter supply or demand to achieve price and spending goals. Housing bubble is an excellent example that misguided monetary policy can have a temporary and often negative affect on an economy. >>
derryb: By "uselessly hoping" I wonder what you mean? ZIRP has stimulated demand in the housing market, automobile market, equity markets, and countless other things. The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. We know the "savers" are being punished but we don't know where this leads and neither does The Fed. >>
FED's ZIRP "stimulus" has not had the desired affect of increasing consumer spending, not even recently:
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy.
<< <i>
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy. >>
That's actually a good analogy. I agree with derryb's M2V chart but the money is still being created, just not moving out of the hands that grab it very fast! U.S. housing prices are back to 90% of their 2006 peak, equity markets are at all-time highs, automobile sales also. Not saying it's all well and good because year after year after year of unprecedented monetary stimulus has been required to keep the boat afloat. Just that our monetary policy has allowed us to create the illusion that all is well and good for a great many people (the masses).
I sincerely hope we accept the needed reset of our economy and find a way to get D.C. back into the hands of the American people and out of Wall Street's hip pocket. Until we do, D.C. will keep kicking the can through the U.S. Treasury and emptying it into a bottomless hole.
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The long-term side affects of years on end of ZIRP are yet to be determined but increasing (or at least maintaining under duress) the debt-load of the American consumer (to keep our economy out of depression) was the intent and has worked for 5 years now. >>
...sort of like keeping your family happy by taking them on $20,000 cruises a couple times a year and charging it on your unpaid MasterCard. Everyone is delighted for the five years until you file for bankruptcy. >>
That's actually a good analogy. I agree with derryb's M2V chart but the money is still being created, just not moving out of the hands that grab it very fast! U.S. housing prices are back to 90% of their 2006 peak, equity markets are at all-time highs, automobile sales also. Not saying it's all well and good because year after year after year of unprecedented monetary stimulus has been required to keep the boat afloat. Just that our monetary policy has allowed us to create the illusion that all is well and good for a great many people (the masses).
I sincerely hope we accept the needed reset of our economy and find a way to get D.C. back into the hands of the American people and out of Wall Street's hip pocket. Until we do, D.C. will keep kicking the can through the U.S. Treasury and emptying it into a bottomless hole. >>
If you could remove the all cash buyers from the housing market would the housing prices be at 90% of the peak?
If you could remove the all cash buyers from the housing market would the housing prices be at 90% of the peak? >>
I suspect most of the fuel is coming from low interest rate loans and easy credit. deja' vu?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
I don't think the loans are so easy to get anymore.
GSE's are shrinking their balance sheets , the Fed is buying up the stuff that is already out there.
The MBS market is going down hill why write a bad mortgage if you have to actually own it? Owning bad loans isn't what its about
It was Goldman Sachs or JPM "monetary policy" that caused the coffee spike. But the first step is "helping" the commodity to reach a major and unheard of bottom so you can flip from short to long.
The long term side effects of ZIRP (with 5-10% yoy increases in monetary supply and debt) are already well known. That sucks the life out of economies. Knock-knock....Japan 1990-date.
ZIRP isn't bad if you keep the monetary supply and debt consistent with population or true economic growth. Increasing otc derivatives by 1,000X in 20 yrs is not the "growth" we're after.
Owning bad derivatives,bad debt and even bad loans is really what it is all about.
The banks and other protected financial institutions are the ones buying the bulk of the "bad" mortgage loans. They still assume that they will be back stopped by the FED & Co. The are probably writing otc derivatives
"to protect" themselves in the case the bad loans fail. Bail out city. Even if the loans might be mostly bad....if you still own most of them (Pottersvilles) then you have all the cards. I don't see the 90% figure in northeast
housing prices. Maybe 80-85% might be closer to the truth with hubs like Boston being the exception.
<< <i>The MBS market is going down hill why write a bad mortgage if you have to actually own it? Owning bad loans isn't what its about
Because you believe you will get bailed out again?
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>
<< <i>
1970-1980---First baby boomers are turning 25 and starting families. They are buying houses, cars and having babies of their own. They are spending money.
1980-1990---First baby boomers are now turning 35 and becoming established in their jobs. Still remembering the values instilled by their parents they invest in the stock market and spend conservatively.
1990-2000--First baby boomers are now turning 45 and doing well in their jobs. Kids are graduating college and they have more free cash flow. They buy bigger cars, bigger houses, latest gadgets. The latter group of boomers is now turning 35 and is now forming families (having focused on careers first) and spending lots of money. Its is a perfect storm of economic growth.
2000-2008--First boomers are now turning 55 and looking at retirement. After getting caught up in the stock market bubble they decide to diversify and buy real estate, gold and other assets. They are tying up their money for long term (reducing velocity). The second group of boomers is trying to get everything their older siblings have--nicer cars, bigger houses, latest gadgets--money is free flowing but they are also investing for long term--real estate, gold, ect., and creating another bubble.
2008-now--Baby boomers are scared. They see 60-80% of their life has passed. They dont know what to do. They are not spending. They are pessimistic. Money velocity falls off a cliff.
The FED cannot change investor or consumer psychology, especially when a common psychology is shared buy such a large demographic base.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
May have to pick up a new little buddy!
<< <i>Cat adoptions at PetSmart are only $25. It was $99 before. Different agency is now sponsoring the program at the local store.
May have to pick up a new little buddy! >>
If you go to your local shelter and ask for a senior cat or dog you can sometimes get them free.
The older animals don't get adopted very often but they make the best pets.
Older animals are full of surprises , one of the senior cats I picked up that way was trained to use the toilet by its previous owner . It's the damnedest thing to walk around the corner and see the cat perched on the throne
Keep an open mind, or get financially repressed -Zoltan Pozsar
<< <i>Food prices up 19% in 2014. . . that's not even three months! >>
The graph shows the price dropping 10% in the 4th quarter of 2013... and then bouncing after new year's.
corrected for the seasonal cycle... up 6% since before the re=positioning gyration... and now above the longer term average.
Let's see a 5 or 10 year chart of the same data now... and let's see it again in a year
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
I find TJ's to be a much better indicator of price increases as they never offer discounts and offer true everyday low pricing.
Seems that the live produce stuff has risen 10% or so yty, with the packaged goods at more of a 5-6% clip.
Unscientific, but pretty close to the truth.
<< <i>Food prices up 19% in 2014. . . that's not even three months! >>
I told ya grains were going higher back in Feb. and the market knew it long before I did. Non-event, although it makes for populist speech.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Can't tell you what the price on the old model was as it was a gift.
Rump roast $2.99, now $3.99. Cod $4.99 now $6.99.
Local rancher stated he is getting much higher prices for beef and expects it to increase.
Huge pig farm was bought by the Chinese here and the pork is exported. Less supply, higher costs, right?
We buy very little bacon now due to cost.
My son is checking into getting us a half of beef to save money.
Got quoins?
<< <i>Don't know about your area but meat is up in price in just a week >>
I eat a vegan diet but have noticed the meet and fish ads at the local market topping the $10 threshold frequently. These are the sale prices. Better cuts I am sure, but feeding a family has become challenging to many.
Same on the non meat side. Organic nuts are $15.00 a pound.
But noooo inflation apparently in some of the poster neighborhoods.
Yeah you can still get Ramen Noodles for 25c a pack so the fed thinks we are doing ok.
The gimmicks they promote these days.
FWIW--I just bought 3 pounds of bacon at Walmart for $7.88. Yes, its the ends pieces, but I find there to be much more meat. Even if I throw away 1/3 due to excessive fat, then thats still less than $4 a pound compared to the nicely presented and packaged stuff for $5.99 for 12 oz.
Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
The point can be made ad infinitum; it still will apparently never be understood. It is not clear if the obtuseness is deliberate
Link
Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry
<< <i>Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples. >>
Everything beyond gruel is a lifestyle choice.
I gave up on the nuts a year or so when prices topped $12. have not given up on the organic though and switched to seeds; sesame, pumpkin and sunflower. About 1/3 the cost of the nuts but as much nutrition.
That plays into the Feds bogus inflation numbers which a few of you seem to buy into.
As I can no longer afford the $15 nuts and have switched to $5 seeds, my cost of eating has been reduced, so my cost of living has really declined.
Bogus accounting that would certainly please Max Bialystock!
<< <i>
<< <i>Complaining about paying $15 for a bag of nuts is the same as complaining about paying $100,000 for a Mercedes. These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples. >>
Everything beyond gruel is a lifestyle choice.
I gave up on the nuts a year or so when prices topped $12. have not given up on the organic though and switched to seeds; sesame, pumpkin and sunflower. About 1/3 the cost of the nuts but as much nutrition.
That plays into the Feds bogus inflation numbers which a few of you seem to buy into.
As I can no longer afford the $15 nuts and have switched to $5 seeds, my cost of eating has been reduced, so my cost of living has really declined.
Bogus accounting that would certainly please Max Bialystock! >>
It's springtime...
<< <i>These are lifestyle choices, not inflation examples
The point can be made ad infinitum; it still will apparently never be understood. It is not clear if the obtuseness is deliberate
Link >>
By the same logic, only the basics can be considered in calculating inflation. A one bedroom apartment on the crappy side of town would count, but not a nice 3 bedroom home in a decent area. A car trip upstate would be counted, as long as you stay at a Motel Six and not the Hilton.
Nice, like new clothing from the second hand store are countable, but wander into Old Navy and you are making a lifestyle choice of luxury that does not factor into the CPI? You fellas must be kidding.