Forum member inflation report.

MGLICKER · January 11, 2014 2:54AM

No doubt that at the end of 2014, the fed chair will look down and opine that they are working feverishly to fight deflation, stating that the rate for the year was barely over 1%.

I disagree.

One or two examples of rising prices are worthless, but forum members purchase a number of things. Please state which have risen in price and which have declined. Try to omit short term sale prices which can be distorting. I will sift through all of this at years end and try to make some non scientific sense of the numbers.

derryb · January 11, 2014 3:02AM

Deflation is a good thing. It is nothing more than the market returning to reality (as in real estate prices, and yes, current gold prices). It is only disliked by those that gain from inflation. That would be your banker, your tax collector and others who have their hand in your pocket before the money even gets dropped into it.

DoubleEagle59 · January 11, 2014 3:35AM

I've checked some websites for gasoline prices in the Toronto ON area and since 2003 gas prices have increased at an annual rate of approx. 5.5%.

MGLICKER · January 11, 2014 4:02AM

Dentist upped the teeth cleaning fee from $71 to 74 since July.

Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.

Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks.

Pokermandude · January 11, 2014 4:46AM

Another sign of inflation to look for is portion/package sizes. Companies will often trim a few grams or an ounce off the portions you buy, while maintaining the same price.

Today's Mars bar is 51 grams, compared to 62.5 grams in 2007; price remains the same

derryb · January 11, 2014 4:49AM

<< Another sign of inflation to look for is portion/package sizes. Companies will often trim a few grams or an ounce off the portions you buy, while maintaining the same price.

Today's Mars bar is 51 grams, compared to 62.5 grams in 2007; price remains the same >>

otherwise known as product deflation.

A big trend at restaurants.

MGLICKER · January 11, 2014 4:54AM

Walked into a sushi bar last week and walked out. All the rolls had been bumped up a buck each or 20%. Went to the Mexican place instead.

Baley · January 11, 2014 5:40AM

The values of my assets are inflating at a rapid rate. My expenses are stable, some are inflating a little, some are deflating a little, overall the costs are stable. YMMV.

VanHalen · January 11, 2014 5:56AM

<< Deflation is a good thing. It is nothing more than the market returning to reality (as in real estate prices, and yes, current gold prices). It is only disliked by those that gain from inflation. That would be your banker, your tax collector and others who have their hand in your pocket before the money even gets dropped into it. >>

Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant.

renman95 · January 11, 2014 6:07AM

My inflation experience is more regional.

This morning the wifey and I had a discussion on our daily-grocery cost. She said it had rose from an average of $40/day in CO to now $70/day* in HI. That's for a family of 6 with smoe with food allergies and other issues. We buy whole foods, no processed junk , no hormonally injected garbage, etc....

*I think the $70/day was an exaggeration. She's Irish and likes to "talk story."

But she's right, the cost is definitely much higher.

freechance · January 11, 2014 7:48AM

<< My inflation experience is more regional.

This morning the wifey and I had a discussion on our daily-grocery cost. She said it had rose from an average of $40/day in CO to now $70/day* in HI. That's for a family of 6 with smoe with food allergies and other issues. We buy whole foods, no processed junk , no hormonally injected garbage, etc....

*I think the $70/day was an exaggeration. She's Irish and likes to "talk story."

But she's right, the cost is definitely much higher. >>

I distribute bread for a living. When I started in 2006 the pre-priced retail on a loaf was $2.89 today it is $4.49. 6pk bagels were $2.99 now $4.69.
though we have not had an increase in over a year.

secondrepublic · January 11, 2014 7:51AM

Was in a regular supermarket in Chicago today looking for hot dogs. Cheapest ones were $3.99 a pack and that was for the chicken/pork version, Oscar Mayer. The higher end angus beef, no-nitrite dogs were $5.99. These are all regular retail prices; none of them were on sale. I've never seen prices like that.

Baley · January 11, 2014 7:51AM

<< 

Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>

I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings

Baley · January 11, 2014 7:55AM

<< Dentist upped the teeth cleaning fee from $71 to 74 since July.

Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.

Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks. >>

so, you gonna skip the teeth cleaning or scrape up the extra $3?

And the almonds, gonna cut back to 11/13 of a pound when you buy them, or somehow find $2 somewhere and go for the full pound?

my gosh, what a crisis! we for sure gonna panic at these exhorbitant costs

VanHalen · January 11, 2014 8:02AM

<< 

<< 

Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>

I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>

You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty.

MGLICKER · January 11, 2014 8:09AM

<< 

<< Dentist upped the teeth cleaning fee from $71 to 74 since July.

Organic almonds jumped $2 from $11 to $13 a pound.

Need some guidance on meat prices, particularly pork which has jumped at the wholesale level by 6% in recent weeks. >>

so, you gonna skip the teeth cleaning or scrape up the extra $3?

And the almonds, gonna cut back to 11/13 of a pound when you buy them, or somehow find $2 somewhere and go for the full pound?

my gosh, what a crisis! we for sure gonna panic at these exhorbitant costs

>>

Those were a couple of examples of what I see as a return to a steady, broadly based inflation. Teeth got cleaned but Almonds were eliminated. I switched to raw sesame seeds at 1/3 the price. According to the fed, the almonds would no longer count as inflationary as I no longer consume them.

It really does not take much to maintain the current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years. Apparently you shop at a better and cheaper grocery than the rest of us.

Baley · January 11, 2014 8:16AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>

I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>

You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty. >>

It ain't gonna be pretty for someone in the 91st or 87th or 76th percentile in assets and or income in this country? uh oh! For those somewhere in there, what should they do??

I just do not find overall prices advancing that fast, on average... what I see is seasonal changes, and supply and demand changes, in both directions.

gsa1fan · January 11, 2014 8:59AM

Here's one for us all to chew on the price of corn.

Has any food went down? Gas it is 10% ethanol? My feed prices are the same as last year with corn price 30%+ cheaper

Price corn per bushel chart

VanHalen · January 11, 2014 9:32AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

<< 

Indeed. Deflation = Depression and a lot of deflation would be required to return us to reality but The Fed won't let that happen (i.e. they will die trying to prevent deflation). The Top 1% will be wealthy beyond their wildest dreams in a few years. Billionaires will be common (in the Top 1%) by 2020. The Fed will keep pouring money into the black hole until it explodes like a red giant. >>

I hope like hell you are right with that prediction, but am absolutely sure it will be proven wrong. 2020 is not all that far away, if today's multi-millionaires are going to be billionaires by then, it will certainly be a paradise for all the stackers on this forum, as well as anyone with significant real estate and/or stock market holdings >>

You need a roughly $10 million net worth to break into the Top 1% in 2014. They've realized most of the gains from The Fed's policies. If you're in that group, more money is coming your way, a lot more. If you're in the bottom 90% with 290 million other Americans? It ain't gonna be pretty. >>

It ain't gonna be pretty for someone in the 91st or 87th or 76th percentile in assets and or income in this country? uh oh! For those somewhere in there, what should they do??

I just do not find overall prices advancing that fast, on average... what I see is seasonal changes, and supply and demand changes, in both directions. >>

Be prepared, but of course if you think this time is no different, you can carry like the sheeple.

tincup · January 11, 2014 9:57AM

The brand of coffee that I purchase in the supermarket can size has shrunk to 1" less in height... but the cost remained the same.

MGLICKER · January 11, 2014 10:05AM

Don't eat meat, but noticed that steaks in the case at our run of the mill local grocer were $10.99 lb.

Looked like decent cuts, but certainly were not tenderloin.

roadrunner · January 11, 2014 2:10PM

The FED has successfully help channel all the 2012-2013 inflation into things that benefit the top 1-10%:

Stock Market
Housing Market
Corporations
High end art/antique/collectibles markets.....yes, even the top 1% rare coins
Health Insurance and health care
Higher education including the more selective prep schools, and even nursery schools.

Very little trickle down there. J6P is only aware of trickle up.

Legend's FUN market report says that $100K is the new $10K. Sounds like tangible asset price inflation to me.

derryb · January 11, 2014 2:25PM

<< The FED has successfully help channel all the 2012-2013 inflation into things that benefit the top 1-10%:

Stock Market
Housing Market
Corporations
High end art/antique/collectibles markets.....yes, even the top 1% rare coins
Health Insurance and health care
Higher education including the more selective prep schools, and even nursery schools.

Very little trickle down there. J6P is only aware of trickle up. >>

sounds like another conspiracy fact.

WildIdea · January 11, 2014 3:23PM

<< The brand of coffee that I purchase in the supermarket can size has shrunk to 1" less in height... but the cost remained the same. >>

Yes, the lb went from 16 to 12 oz and the last look alike package had 11 oz marked on it. And I agree that you see it the most with groceries.

VanHalen · January 11, 2014 3:33PM

<< 

<< The brand of coffee that I purchase in the supermarket can size has shrunk to 1" less in height... but the cost remained the same. >>

Yes, the lb went from 16 to 12 oz and the last look alike package had 11 oz marked on it. And I agree that you see it the most with groceries. >>

The reduction in "quantity" and "quality" of many items is a hidden inflation. Bought a gallon of paint lately?

mariner67 · January 11, 2014 4:50PM

Big screen TVs are now 1/10 the price they were 9 yrs ago.
Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago.
"Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers?

s4ny · January 11, 2014 9:41PM

Very little inflation in the last 10 years. Some food prices as already noted both
groceries and restaurants.

Largest increase is health care.

This is offset by real estate prices and electronics like TV's and computers.

derryb · January 12, 2014 12:30AM

<< "Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers? >>

One can get whatever results one wants by choosing the method used to determine inflation

Why and how official inflation is underreported

Health care vs. electronics is a great example of government involvement with the market vs. little to no governemnt involvement with the market.

RedneckHB · January 12, 2014 1:04AM

I got a 4-pack of English muffins for $6 yesterday. 18 eggs are still less than $2.50. The package of Dunkin Donuts I got for $7.99 last summer is now $6.99. Bacon was $7.99 but if I got 2 the second one was free.

Now I'm hungry.

derryb · January 12, 2014 1:44AM

eat while you can afford to.

OldEastside · January 12, 2014 1:48AM

Look at the price of Bacon latley?? And even Eggs @ the 99cent store are now $1.79

Steve

derryb · January 12, 2014 1:56AM

The local Dollar Tree just changed it's sign to "Two Bucks."

MGLICKER · January 12, 2014 2:24AM

<< Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>

Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.

On another note, 20 years ago the post office would ship a 2lb Priority anywhere in the nation for $3. Today it is $10.

MGLICKER · January 12, 2014 2:30AM

One Item that has come down significantly in price is telecommunications. With Ooma I get everything that used to cost me $100 for $4 a month, which is a land line with unlimited long distance.

That is not a factor of conservative government monetary policy, but really stepping down on regulation and improved technology.

RedneckHB · January 12, 2014 2:40AM

I flew the family back east (round trip) for the holidays and paid $25. Women and their shoes---sheesh.

tincup · January 12, 2014 3:59AM

I'll have to check the price of Kool-Aid next time in the store. Appears to be quite a bit of it still being consumed, and am curious how that has affected the price.

mariner67 · January 12, 2014 5:20AM

<< 

<< Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>

Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.

Even better....

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/

MGLICKER · January 12, 2014 6:08AM

<< 

<< 

<< Airfares remain way below adjusted inflationary costs from 20 yrs ago. >>

Not from my locale. Please back that up with some hard data.

Even better....

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/02/how-airline-ticket-prices-fell-50-in-30-years-and-why-nobody-noticed/273506/ >>

Nice try but a fail. Using you inflation adjusted chart, the 20 year rates 1993 until 2011 (end of charting info date) Went from 410 to 360. My understanding is that rates are up 10% in the last twelve months, which would bring us to and inflation adjusted wash. Question is what inflation rate are they using for the adjustment?

I believe that you are using the 30 numbers now instead of the 20 that you originally stated to demonstrate the efficiency created with much less government regulation. That point was noted in my case for lower telecom costs but has nothing to do with reckless government spending and monetary policy.

RedneckHB · January 12, 2014 6:22AM

I remember flying from the Northeast to Florida for about $400 15-20 years ago. Now its less than $300 and a greater choice of times.

If something drops from 100 to 50 over 5 years then back to 100 over the next 5, was there inflation?

RedneckHB · January 12, 2014 6:25AM

How is the US govt involved in the price of a computer or TV. Or VCRs and calculators?

derryb · January 12, 2014 7:02AM

<< How is the US govt involved in the price of a computer or TV. Or VCRs and calculators? >>

they're not. Explains better new products at cheaper price. Free market forces vs. gov. market forces

TJM965 · January 12, 2014 7:30AM

Jimmy Dean sausage $2.99 lb at 1 store, $5.29 at another. No more 1/2 gallons of ice cream. Size shrunk, price increased. Chunky chili was 19 oz., now
15. That's the solution. Same price, but get less.

derryb · January 12, 2014 8:04AM

At least the plastic packaging is getting better. Takes a utility knife to open anything anymore.

tincup · January 12, 2014 8:44AM

<< I remember flying from the Northeast to Florida for about $400 15-20 years ago. Now its less than $300 and a greater choice of times.

If something drops from 100 to 50 over 5 years then back to 100 over the next 5, was there inflation? >>

There certainly has been for me when it comes to luggage. Used to be free.

It's hard to say with something like airlines, because it all depends on the routes that are flown and what airlines are operating in the region. I have not seen those price savings in Nebraska.

roadrunner · January 12, 2014 8:52AM

<< One Item that has come down significantly in price is telecommunications. With Obama I get everything that used to cost me $100 for $4 a month, which is a land line with unlimited long distance.
That is not a factor of conservative government monetary policy, but really stepping down on regulation and improved technology. >>

Yeah, I pay about $8 a month for unlimited long distance land line.....but.....only as an add-on to my cable TV - BB internet package that runs $120/month. It would be far more money if purchased w/o cable.
The other side of the "cheap" land line is the fortune that cell phone companies are making on premium packages of $500-$1500/yr. Getting harder to compare a dinosaur like land line with cell phone supply/demand.
The American people are smart enough to notice the cost of air fares, food, phones, and gas. So there will be maximum effort to keep those in a range...while the things we don't notice so easily are jacked as high
as can be withstood (taxes, education, health care, professional services labor (lawyers, cpa's, plumbers, electricians, mechanics), municipal and govt fees, etc.). And now that people are starting to catch on to the shrinkage
in grocery store packages, the next step is filling them with air. It's a "shame" that they have to post per pound pricing. But, I think most shoppers can't figure that out, especially when confused with 2 for 1 and 3 for 2 pricing.

My FUN show air fares back around 2002-2004 were in the $210-$260 range. And those were the cheapest flights I could arrange for out of Connecticut.

mariner67 · January 12, 2014 9:18AM

""Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers? "

Still waiting........

secondrepublic · January 12, 2014 9:19AM

<< On another note, 20 years ago the post office would ship a 2lb Priority anywhere in the nation for $3. Today it is $10. >>

The Post Office has really jacked up prices on things like Priority Mail, international mail, parcels, and registered mail over the past few years. The price of a basic first class stamp is still 46 cents but that's mostly politics -- it's what the media focuses on, so the Post Offices usually raises it just one or two cents.

The Post Office's own website admits that "Stamp prices have stayed consistent with the average annual rate of inflation of 4.2 percent since the Postal Service was formed in 1971." Yeah, the government tells us that inflation is only 2% or close to zero, but the Post Office (which is part of government) admits the real number is a lot higher.

These little differences in inflation really add up. With inflation of 4.2% annually, a product which cost $10 in 1971 would cost over $56 today.

If inflation were only 2% during that period the same product would only cost $23.

bronco2078 · January 12, 2014 9:24AM

Pink slime in hamburger is inflation. Horsemeat in TV dinners , well that might be fraud , but if not its inflation. Things like TV's are supposed to be getting cheaper and they are but the quality is declining so that is still showing inflation , its the pink slime effect again. Airfare , well it depends on where you go and where you leave from. It also helps that the costs are being subsidized by taxpayers. If they were out of pocket for the ridiculous security theater air travelers have to deal with what would ticket prices be?

tincup · January 12, 2014 11:30AM

The real estate taxes on my place have doubled since I have moved in, but the value of my house has not.

Oops... but wait... that is just a tax increase, not inflation.... or is it?

MGLICKER · January 12, 2014 2:03PM

<< ""Current 5-7% inflation rate of the last few years"? Where is the hard data to back up these numbers? "

Still waiting........ >>

Ok, I miscalculated, we are in a period of deflation. Increases in education, groceries, postage, air travel, housing, cable, utilities and medical care are all an illusion.

Pokermandude · January 15, 2014 2:41AM

More product deflation/devaluation.. I really like these Fibre1 bars which I get from Costco from time to time. I just bit into one from a box purchased yesterday. They've changed the composition so instead of mostly granola, about half of it now consists of puffy rice crispy bits. Overall weight is the same, but I am sure the calories and cost to produce have gone down.

Forum member inflation report.

Comments

Categories