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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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  • mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,177 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made. >>



    Is that a hunch? Or is there anything behind it? It would seem that the Uncs have sold out for the current batch. The proofs have got to be close, too, based on the emailed two week delivery delay. What do you think would be the size of the next batch, if any?
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made. >>



    Is that a hunch? Or is there anything behind it? It would seem that the Uncs have sold out for the current batch. The proofs have got to be close, too, based on the emailed two week delivery delay. What do you think would be the size of the next batch, if any? >>



    Struck as needed, or until 15,000 take your pick.
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  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made.

    Eric >>




    So they anticipated that they would sell all 15,000?image
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • I would love it if the mint strikes 15,000 total coins, and then has to melt them, as demand drops to zero due to higher gold prices,and the fact that those who got them at the cheaper price start to dump image
  • I was told outright by Michael White and one other person that shall not be named that is normally right on that the additional coins will be struck. They have the time and the planchets so I would suggest that everyone moderate their bets.

    I am going to.


    Eric
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Remember all - the USM doesnt fire up the presses for a few hundred coins.

    Unless there is substantial demand (i.e. 500+ coins - just my opinion, could be 1,000) I wouldnt bet on them wasting their time. There is no substantial profit producing in small numbers after an initial production run. They would have to have a significant amount of backordered coins.......

    I would like to see the next round of numbers before jumping to conclusions too early.

    As always, only buy what you intend on keeping, regardless of the way the ball rolls.

    With Gold on a tear, there wont be much downside anyway.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    7/8 I tried telling you they had months left to strike more. It's unfortunate but looks like Van Buren is the winner.

    PS The mint needs to sell every collector gold coin they can this year to make up for the lost revenues from the 1 year UHR they had last year. They will probably do as many as they think they can sell for the full year, much more than 500 or 1000 as that is only two weeks of sales.image
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    the only problem is most of the demand comes in the first two weeks.......maybe 75%...then it plummets, it plummets even more when gold is on a tear......

    you guys keep forgetting their high profit AGE's are right around the corner....

    rather sell tens of thousands of AGE's of all denom's.......or worry about a few thousand buchanan's......??

    holding firm on my 6500 number (proof). I dont think i'll be far off.



  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    The 2012 spouse coins should be a real doozy, they have two Frances Cleveland coins and the Alice Paul coin to top it off. Maybe we get a double dip recession in the spouse coins for 2012.image
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Especially if gold continues to run.......at some point many buyers back away - it's human nature.


  • << <i>Especially if gold continues to run.......at some point many buyers back away - it's human nature. >>



    My crystal ball says 7over8 is right again! It was a short strike!
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The 2012 spouse coins should be a real doozy, they have two Frances Cleveland coins and the Alice Paul coin to top it off. Maybe we get a double dip recession in the spouse coins for 2012.image >>




    may be....

    I do hope they choose two different portraits for each Cleveland release.
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  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Question: I bought some Gold Spouse's 2nd hand in OGP. The capsules seem original, but they do not seat completely tight -- a small gap seems to remain.

    When compressed, they seem to spring back to ~a fingernail-wide gap. Is this typical for the spouse capsules? I sent my original Buch's back to the mint -- have nothing to compare.

    Just wondering if I got some after-market capsules with these... THANKS in advance.
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  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭
    I got two more MS last Friday. Sent one back with a stain/blotch on the obverse. My 3 proofs I asked for replacements are now in limbo since the mint is doing inventory this week which will delay the shipments of these. I have three proofs but the other three proofs I have for replacements will now be in danger of not making first strike. I have six of the MS and 2 PFs that are going to PCGS for FS next week before Oct 6 deadline. I will watching to see if they make any more MS Buchs.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Gold is at $1309 at the moment.

    It's possible (not certain) that Buffalo proofs and First Spouse coins will be priced up another increment by the Mint this week.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Question: I bought some Gold Spouse's 2nd hand in OGP. The capsules seem original, but they do not seat completely tight -- a small gap seems to remain.

    When compressed, they seem to spring back to ~a fingernail-wide gap. Is this typical for the spouse capsules? I sent my original Buch's back to the mint -- have nothing to compare.

    Just wondering if I got some after-market capsules with these... THANKS in advance. >>




    In general they are a snug fit.


    What year and release? (I can go test mine against yours, but give me a day or three to find them... plus I'm in the middle of something)

    The 2007 had a different capsule than those from 2008-to-date. The 2007s look more like direct fit air tites.... the 2008 and later have a ridge on the top lens similar to what is found on all the capsules currently released for Commems, Buffs, AGEs, etc.




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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Gold is at $1309 at the moment.

    It's possible (not certain) that Buffalo proofs and First Spouse coins will be priced up another increment by the Mint this week. >>



    I'm thinking the average is still under $1300, so no repricing this week.

    I believe they are regularly repricing on Wed noon after the pm fix... This I'm not sure on... but that platinum and recent Buch Lib repricing went on Wed. midday.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I got two more MS last Friday. Sent one back with a stain/blotch on the obverse. >>




    ain't that a stinker? You'd think a quick visual inspection would find these.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Question: I bought some Gold Spouse's 2nd hand in OGP. The capsules seem original, but they do not seat completely tight -- a small gap seems to remain.

    When compressed, they seem to spring back to ~a fingernail-wide gap. Is this typical for the spouse capsules? I sent my original Buch's back to the mint -- have nothing to compare.

    Just wondering if I got some after-market capsules with these... THANKS in advance. >>




    I remember that with some of my 2008-date spouse coins that the capsules seemed to be partially open, but that I couldn't seem to squeeze them all they way shut to where the seam would be flush all the way around. The 2007 capsules were fine.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Question: I bought some Gold Spouse's 2nd hand in OGP. The capsules seem original, but they do not seat completely tight -- a small gap seems to remain.

    When compressed, they seem to spring back to ~a fingernail-wide gap. Is this typical for the spouse capsules? I sent my original Buch's back to the mint -- have nothing to compare.

    Just wondering if I got some after-market capsules with these... THANKS in advance. >>




    I remember that with some of my 2008-date spouse coins that the capsules seemed to be partially open, but that I couldn't seem to squeeze them all they way shut to where the seam would be flush all the way around. The 2007 capsules were fine. >>




    Ohhhh.....

    yeah. the newer capsules do not close fully once opened.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Question: I bought some Gold Spouse's 2nd hand in OGP. The capsules seem original, but they do not seat completely tight -- a small gap seems to remain.

    When compressed, they seem to spring back to ~a fingernail-wide gap. Is this typical for the spouse capsules? I sent my original Buch's back to the mint -- have nothing to compare.

    Just wondering if I got some after-market capsules with these... THANKS in advance. >>




    I remember that with some of my 2008-date spouse coins that the capsules seemed to be partially open, but that I couldn't seem to squeeze them all they way shut to where the seam would be flush all the way around. The 2007 capsules were fine. >>




    Ohhhh.....

    yeah. the newer capsules do not close fully once opened. >>



    I'm pretty confident mine were never opened by me though, that's how they came from the Mint. I also bought them all on the first day of sales so I'm pretty confident they weren't returns either.
  • dtkk49adtkk49a Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭



    I must say they do look better in hand.


    image
    Follow me - Cards_and_Coins on Instagram



    They call me "Pack the Ripper"
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭✭✭
    You are right, as it is with most of the coins I receive from the Mint, particularly the Buffaloes.

    Just don't flip that one over, pleaseeee....

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.
  • I just checked.
    My UNC Buch order (09/18/2010 at 12:19 AM) is now in stock and reserved.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • drfishdrfish Posts: 940 ✭✭✭✭
    The unc Buchanans are still BO until the 14th on the webpage so at this point filled orders likely found inventory/returns not the dreaded second striking
  • Must either of the Buchanans have to either go to a waiting list by the Mint or simply no longer available to indicate with a high degree of certainty that one/both coins are done, finished, sales over ? Comments.....
    Specialized Investments
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    This returned item thing is a farce. I returned two Buch's one UNC and one proof on 9/23 and they notified me the replacements are on back order. Why would they send me some one Else's returned item knowing I just returned two problem coins. Plus more than likely the other returns are marked defects on the return slip just like mine was. It would be counter productive but then again it is the US Mint!
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  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Let's face it guys, the sales numbers arent exactly jumping for the last two sales reports - and I dont expect them to trend up anytime soon. Without a sizeable backlog of orders, why would the USM ever strike more? Think about it. This is not an operation that strikes piece by piece as orders come in.

    Especially when gold is rising and the possibility of another price increase looms.

    My opinion is that the proof will be the short strike of the liberty subset proofs. That alone will make it a winner. Not to mention it's great design and the only liberty subset design to be "right" for the metal and "right" for the size and denomination (Liberty $10 Gold).
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    The back order dates keep rising, Could that not equate to more orders?
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  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The back order dates keep rising, Could that not equate to more orders? >>


    A similar thing has happened before, I believe it was on 2006-W burnished Platinum Eagles. Many of the backorders were eventually canceled. Of course this does not mean that the same thing will necessarily happen this time.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • I received a Proof and UNC and returned the UNC, which is on back order to 10/14.

    I don't think the mintage is high enough for enough "changed my mind" returns to fill outstanding orders, so I expect they will mint more, if they haven't already. The Mint's home page says they are currently conducting quarterly inventory, which could explain some of the delay.

    I recall reading somewhere that the Mint does not reship coins that were returned as defective.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>The back order dates keep rising, Could that not equate to more orders? >>




    The backorder date on the product page and on the order display page (where you see the status of your order) are now programmed to increase by 1 day every day.

    Today the backorder date is 10/14.

    Tomorrow it will be 10/15.

    the day after it will be 10/16.

    This will continue until they have them in stock.

    It has been programmed like this for quite a few months.


    Often they get them back in stock way before the backorder date... however with all the short strike talk.... I'll leave it open on this one and see.


    (Personally, my opinion is still no short strike and no sell out.)
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,177 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Buchanan MS70 First Strike Sold for $876! >>



    Ick. That ain't much over cost. The buyer got a great deal IMO. I think these will take some time to mature. Look at the Jacksons and Van Burens since they have been off sale from the mint. We all just need to put our Buchanans back in their safe places, let them go off sale and let a year or so pass, THEN maybe start putting them up for sale/bid. I know I'm in no hurry to sell off my spare MS70...
  • I agree. Right now you have people selling who have to pay credit card bill.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Some people probably took the gamble that this would be a quick sell-out, and lost. With 3 months left to strike more.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    After eBay Fees and PayPal fees and shipping and grading and shipping, the guy is taking a loss.

    A >loss< on a MS70 coin (first strike or not)


    I've been looking at this potential for the past week now and see it is coming to light.


    I think part of the problem is:
    1) the flippers are getting panicky and taking what they can get. To some extent that is me, but I only must withstand the spousal wrath and potential gold drops.
    2) A flood of sellers trying to capitalize on the hurrah around the 4th and last Liberty subset coin. It's not even the end of the First Strike deadline and there are masses in line waiting to sell.
    3) A buyer's strike. I'm calling it. We have a buyer's strike. When gold was ~1250/toz that put a half ounce ~625, but the mint was selling them at $804, or ~$1200 & ~$600 with $779. Now throw shipping to and from, grading & FS fees, eBay fees and Paypal fees, and you are up in the $1000 to break even range. Sell for over that and guess what... the premium looks steep. I think there is a buyers strike. This could perhaps turn into a buyers market real soon if the flippers really start to panic and dump.

    Also, assuming I'm right about a buyer's strike... the Lincoln name could save that issue but also put it in the same boat as this release.... but this could get ugly ugly ugly for releases next year if gold holds up. Although, perhaps buyer's will eventually see the reality of the market and warm a bit to the premiums these things need to carry to sell to account for flippers time and risk (getting a 69 still means selling it graded for the mint's sales price and that means eating quite a loss)



    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • GATGAT Posts: 3,146
    No speculation or problems here, I only bought what was needed to complete the 4 coin liberty sub set. It's a long term hold, not a flip.
    USAF vet 1951-59
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭
    I will have 5 MS graded FS for now but won't sell for a while. I may cancel my 3 gold proofs that were replacements. These are now in limbo waiting to be shipped and I will probably miss the FS deadline now. I have 2 other proofs I am going to submit for FS.


  • << <i>No speculation or problems here, I only bought what was needed to complete the 4 coin liberty sub set. It's a long term hold, not a flip. >>





    image This was my first spousal coin.I dont look to sell anytime soon.If gold zooms Im not overly attached to it and it goes.If gold has a correction then its time to buy more of the four coin series.A win-win as far as Im concerned.
  • "Although, perhaps buyer's will eventually see the reality of the market and warm a bit to the premiums these things need to carry to sell to account for flippers time and risk (getting a 69 still means selling it graded for the mint's sales price and that means eating quite a loss)"


    I as a collector I could not care less about paying a price that "accounts for the flippers time and risk."
    Those that are buying these $10 proof Bucks thinking they are going to make a killing and have their money out in 90 days have a rude awakening coming. If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper.


  • << <i>If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper. >>



    Hi Eric,

    For the 7300 coins, do you refer to UNC or Proof?
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  • PlacidPlacid Posts: 11,299 ✭✭✭
    Mine got PR68DC now I have to crack it out and sell it and buy another.
    Was expecting a 69 and hoping for a 70.
    image
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>"Although, perhaps buyer's will eventually see the reality of the market and warm a bit to the premiums these things need to carry to sell to account for flippers time and risk (getting a 69 still means selling it graded for the mint's sales price and that means eating quite a loss)"


    I as a collector I could not care less about paying a price that "accounts for the flippers time and risk."
    Those that are buying these $10 proof Bucks thinking they are going to make a killing and have their money out in 90 days have a rude awakening coming. If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper. >>




    I understand.

    What I was indicating, without saying it clearly, is that sellers may just put BINs up there and leave it at that.... eventually buyer's may warm to hitting the BIN at the higher price. Who knows, as there will always be those that list as a no reserve auction. As long as those guys are out there, they can keep the higher BINs from selling.





    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I will have 5 MS graded FS for now but won't sell for a while. I may cancel my 3 gold proofs that were replacements. These are now in limbo waiting to be shipped and I will probably miss the FS deadline now. I have 2 other proofs I am going to submit for FS. >>



    Do you need or want more proofs?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions


  • << <i>

    << <i>If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper. >>



    Hi Eric,

    For the 7300 coins, do you refer to UNC or Proof? >>




    PROOF

    JEFFERSON 18000
    JACKSON 7600
    VAN B. 7360
    BUCK ? 7300 WOULD MAKE IT A SHALLOW KEY.

    NOW NOTICE THAT THE PROOF JACKSON AND VB ARE ALREADY WELL OVER $1000 EACH NOW. 7300 WOULD DRIVE THE PROOF BUCK OVER THAT.


  • << <i>

    << <i>"Although, perhaps buyer's will eventually see the reality of the market and warm a bit to the premiums these things need to carry to sell to account for flippers time and risk (getting a 69 still means selling it graded for the mint's sales price and that means eating quite a loss)"


    I as a collector I could not care less about paying a price that "accounts for the flippers time and risk."
    Those that are buying these $10 proof Bucks thinking they are going to make a killing and have their money out in 90 days have a rude awakening coming. If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper. >>




    I understand.

    What I was indicating, without saying it clearly, is that sellers may just put BINs up there and leave it at that.... eventually buyer's may warm to hitting the BIN at the higher price. Who knows, as there will always be those that list as a no reserve auction. As long as those guys are out there, they can keep the higher BINs from selling. >>




    OK
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>If they sell out after the first of the year at 7300 coins or less then a year from now they will look like a very wise purchase but its been my experience that anything over about 90 days is "long term" to a pure flipper. >>



    Hi Eric,

    For the 7300 coins, do you refer to UNC or Proof? >>




    PROOF

    JEFFERSON 18000
    JACKSON 7600
    VAN B. 7360
    BUCK ? 7300 WOULD MAKE IT A SHALLOW KEY.


    These are selling at a rate of 400 per week still. Let's taper that off to 250/week for the next 8 weeks and you have a bust on your hopefull proof key. If they are going back to the presses I think they will mint more than 2000 with 11 months to sell. I am predicting 9500 proof and 5500 unc on these.

    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • SNMANSNMAN Posts: 1,403 ✭✭✭
    400image
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