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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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  • << <i>

    << <i>Just wondering...did we ever definitively settle the question if returns to the Mint are recycled to other customers...or just melted down? >>

    Unless the any damage to the coin is significant, returns are ALWAYS recycled since when you return them, they don't go back to the US Mint. They go back to PCGS. If PBGS can't see a problem, then back to the market it goes. >>



    We should pick a hidden location and agree upon a marker such as some tape or an X placed in a location PBGS would not see or look for and mark all returns. It would be interesting to be able to verify the coins are being recycled. Some of the coins I have returned would not be kept by any collector that received them. Maybe they end up on the HSN.
  • botanistbotanist Posts: 524 ✭✭✭
    Yes, I'm also interested in knowing if any, most, or all returned coins are sent out again. What if the coins were returned with the reason for return stated to be "Unacceptable quality" which is one of the choices that can be checked on the return form? It's true that many buyers are not knowledgeable collectors, may not know what to look for, may not scrutinize the coins at all, may have poor eyesight, or may not even open the boxes. Buyers might be purchasing coins to use as gifts, or to stash for grandchildren, or any other purpose not really numismatic.
    But some returned coins with significant flaws should not be sent out to other buyers, and the next question is are those culls deducted from the eventual sales totals and the official mintage figures? Are they reused as if they were blank planchets? Are they sold for bullion? I returned one uncirculated Buchanan with a conspicuous gash across the base of the neck of Miss Liberty which I assume was unacceptable for resale.
  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,694 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Did any of your proofs have a frost break on the reverse? >>



    One of the PR69s had minor frost breaks on the reverse. Both PR69s had small frost breaks on the obverse around the forehead and eye. >>





    << <i>I just received the PR70 purchased from ebay. I notice there are two minor spots when looking from an angle with my naked eye.
    I don't think it is perfect, but PCGS gave it a PR70 anyway. >>

    >>




    Got my NGC PF70's today. There are some frost breaks on both sides, but none are large. Tough to see without magnification.
    So it looks like a few are acceptable for both major TPGs. They show as light spots on the pics below.

    image

    image
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Why anyone would think they won't strike more if there is demand is beyond me. >>



    I think I have given enough factual evidence about previous issues that builds quite a strong case for the way the USM handles some of these issues.

    I guess by your logic they have all ten years worth of planchets sitting there waiting to be struck? Interesting thought, but not the way a business works.

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Also the issue of what is a short strike amount came up, I think a short strike is a new lower mintage coin than any previous amounts, and based on that this coin was not short struck. To compare it to demand may not be right because any coin if left for sale will have more demand, at some point all coins go off sale at less than demand. >>



    Half -

    Not correct.

    A short strike is a coin struck in numbers less that what was authorized and demanded - and goes off sale before the normal sales period closes. In this case, 15,000 maximum authorized split between unc/prf based on demand - within the normal 1 year period we have seen with other Gold Spouse Coins..

    When this issue comes up at <15k struck, in a shorter period of time than the normal "on sale period", that is a short strike.

    The one week period doesnt matter anymore, anyone holding these is on the "right" side of the trade, the unc's going red are predesessor of a proof issue of < 6500. That's my opinion.
  • I dont know if it means anything but I just got a two weeks backorder notice on a group of 4 proof $10 bucks in my email. The website says in stock. ?????????????????
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The Mint has kept all past issues of the Gold Spouses on sale for roughly a year. Why wouldn't they keep the Buchanans available the same way, or until a sellout?
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • drfishdrfish Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭
    My sat at 1pm Unc order for one coin remains BO and continues to roll forward a day at a time
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    I suspect they are filling orders with returns now. When these play out they will look at the orders left and make a determination to run to maximum mintage or to limit the run to something shy of maximum mintage and see how things go. This decision would be based on how close they are to max mintage and the current rate of sales. I don't know the details but I think the Mint pays a private company to produce the planchets and they do not want to eat the cost of those planchets by melting unsold coins. They also do not want the gold just sitting there for a long time waiting for a buyer so I think they manage the production of these coins very carefully and they do send returns back out if they are not that bad. I am not basing this on any particular knowledge of Mint policy but that is how I think I would do it if I was making the policy and applying that to the backdrop of what I do see.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    I don't know the details but I think the Mint pays a private company to produce the planchets,

    They do, all planchets come from I believe 3 sources. The mint has not produced there own planchets for many years now. The left over plachects can be used for the next Spouse coin and then the next and so on.
    Positive BST transactions: agentjim007, cohodk, CharlieC, Chrischampeon, DRG, 3 x delistamps, djdilliodon, gmherps13, jmski52, Meltdown, Mesquite, 2 x nibanny, themaster, 2 x segoja, Timbuk3, ve3rules, jom, Blackhawk, hchcoin, Relaxn, pitboss, blu62vette, Jfoot13, Jinx86, jfoot13,Ronb

    Successful Trades: Swampboy,


  • << <i>

    << <i>My Buch. Unc orders - placed 12 hours after they went red - read "In Progress" expected ship date Oct. 6 w/cancel box still there. >>


    See if the ship date changes to Oct. 7 tomorrow.

    Edit: On the Mint's website, the ship date now shows as Oct. 7. >>



    Even though the Mint's website shows Oct 7, my 12:19am order is now Oct 8 w/ cancel box.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    By the way, I sent one UNC and one proof back for replacements and the mint sent me an email today stating they are both on back order until 10/08. So I'm not sure what to make of it. For one they know these were sent back due to defects and do you really think they will send me someone Else's reject? That would counter productive to say the least. I am still thinking more are on there way from West Point.

    Greetings from the United States Mint.
    We regret to inform you that the item(s) listed below
    are currently on backorder. Please expect your item(s)
    to arrive within the timeframe listed below.
    Track your order at http://catalog.usmint.gov
    Thanks again for shopping with the United States Mint.

    Order #: 3523xxxx- 1
    Sold To : ., MICHAEL
    Ship To : , MICHAEL
    Item: X67 Qty: 1 Exp Ship: 10/08/10
    2010 JAMES BUCHANAN'S LIBERTY UNC COINS
    Item: X66 Qty: 1 Exp Ship: 10/08/10
    2010 JAMES BUCHANAN'S LIBERTY PRF COINS


    This is a system generated e-mail. Please do not reply.
    If you have questions, please visit the Help page at .
    http://catalog.usmint.gov or call us at 1-800-USA-MINT.
    Positive BST transactions: agentjim007, cohodk, CharlieC, Chrischampeon, DRG, 3 x delistamps, djdilliodon, gmherps13, jmski52, Meltdown, Mesquite, 2 x nibanny, themaster, 2 x segoja, Timbuk3, ve3rules, jom, Blackhawk, hchcoin, Relaxn, pitboss, blu62vette, Jfoot13, Jinx86, jfoot13,Ronb

    Successful Trades: Swampboy,
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I don't know the details but I think the Mint pays a private company to produce the planchets,

    They do, all planchets come from I believe 3 sources. The mint has not produced there own planchets for many years now. The left over plachects can be used for the next Spouse coin and then the next and so on. >>




    Once they are struck, they are committed to that coin though. I would be curious to find out what they do to any badly damaged gold coins. I would guess they send them to some Foundry to make them into bars again but that has to be a big money loser for them. Maybe the planchet providers do that for them gratis.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    I know if you look in the Redbook on coins that have sold there maximum mintage's get revised down years later after govt audits determines how many coins were returned. Even some of the first issues of the First Spouse Coins that sold out, show less then the 40,000 of them on some web sites that follow the series.
    Positive BST transactions: agentjim007, cohodk, CharlieC, Chrischampeon, DRG, 3 x delistamps, djdilliodon, gmherps13, jmski52, Meltdown, Mesquite, 2 x nibanny, themaster, 2 x segoja, Timbuk3, ve3rules, jom, Blackhawk, hchcoin, Relaxn, pitboss, blu62vette, Jfoot13, Jinx86, jfoot13,Ronb

    Successful Trades: Swampboy,
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Even though the Mint's website shows Oct 7, my 12:19am order is now Oct 8 w/ cancel box. >>

    My two unc Buch order placed on 09/18/10 at 10:41 AM has shipped.
    Looks like the cut off was between 10:41 AM and 12:19AM.
  • botanistbotanist Posts: 524 ✭✭✭
    Why couldn't returns of defective gold spouse coins just be reused as if they were blank planchets? Certainly the 24K gold is soft enough that there would be no strike-over remnant whatsoever.


  • << <i>

    << <i>Even though the Mint's website shows Oct 7, my 12:19am order is now Oct 8 w/ cancel box. >>

    My two unc Buch order placed on 09/18/10 at 10:41 AM has shipped.
    Looks like the cut off was between 10:41 AM and 12:19AM. >>



    So early bird gets the worm!
    Too bad I am in the west coast.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    If they stop minting Buchanan's, then I'd think they'd stop minting the others as well.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    but I'm going to guess that they have the capacity to keep minting.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Why couldn't returns of defective gold spouse coins just be reused as if they were blank planchets? Certainly the 24K gold is soft enough that there would be no strike-over remnant whatsoever. >>




    Seems like they could if they wanted. I would suspect the present level of automation would not allow them to do so or maybe just policy. Struck coins would probably gum up the works but wouldn't it be a gold mine for errors?
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    I have gotten rejects in orders before so there is no doubt in my mind they send them back out.image
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I have gotten rejects in orders before so there is no doubt in my mind they send them back out. >>

    How can you be sure what you received were rejects and not just a bad batch?
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    If you saw the coins it was apparent the mint sends back out coins that are returns, it may be they only send out coins that people check "changed my mind" but if someone is cherrypicking and does that then someone else gets them. I could see the mint reselling good returns but they need to have someone check them prior to sending.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    I could see the mint reselling good returns but they need to have someone check them prior to sending.


    Don't worry, the Mint is on top of that already.


    >>

    image
    Mr Magoo
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << Even though the Mint's website shows Oct 7, my 12:19am order is now Oct 8 w/ cancel box. >>

    Mint's website now shows Oct. 8.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    7/8 if we use your definition then a short strike could be something great or nothing special. I will take a regular strike that goes out for most of the year like the Julia Tyler with new lower sales and ends over a short strike of double the mintage. If the Buchanan is short struck to 14,000 coins then it won't be short struck relative to the Van Buren is all I am saying. I think the van Buren would sell for more is my guess.

    Even at 14,000 coins though it isn't much more than the Jackson.
  • drfishdrfish Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭
    Well I have my three pf70 NGC Buch's and one pr70 Pcgs in hand and in my opinion all the coins are similar with 1-3 very very small frost breaks that are only visible with a good light and tilting the coins at different angles.The NGC coins are slightly nicer-but I could also have the worst pr70 ever cert by PCGSimage
  • aficionadoaficionado Posts: 2,309 ✭✭✭
    Good to know PCGS has lowered there standards.

    I'll be sure to send more crap to them.


  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just received the two Buch. proof's which I ordered early last week or the week prior (don't remember exactly). One is nearly flawless with some very small frost breaks and one is absolutely stunning - totally perfect w/no breaks whatsoever visible even w/a loupe. Both are much, much better than the ones which I received from my orders on the day of issue.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I have gotten rejects in orders before so there is no doubt in my mind they send them back out.image >>



    NO DOUBT that they send returns back out. During the 2008 W ASE '08/w rev. of '07 craze I received many, many coins which had obviously been looked over by other collectors ordering many coins and sending back the non '07 reverse ones.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>NO DOUBT that they send returns back out. During the 2008 W ASE '08/w rev. of '07 craze I received many, many coins which had obviously been looked over by other collectors ordering many coins and sending back the non '07 reverse ones. >>

    All those coins you are talking about had no "issues". They were returned because they weren't 07 reverses. You really can't use that as an example.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Good to know PCGS has lowered there standards.

    I'll be sure to send more crap to them. >>





    For some reason they seem to be easy on the Buchys. Maybe it is an unclear understanding about grading standards as it relates to frost breaks. Other times they are tough. I haven't quite figured them out yet.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Good to know PCGS has lowered there standards.

    I'll be sure to send more crap to them. >>





    For some reason they seem to be easy on the Buchys. Maybe it is an unclear understanding about grading standards as it relates to frost breaks. Other times they are tough. I haven't quite figured them out yet. >>



    I agree, I have other 70's not a break any where, now 70's have breaks? They should have some consistency. Maybe I should send back some 69's that jump to major money in 70, if they changed the way they are grading proofs. image
    Positive BST transactions: agentjim007, cohodk, CharlieC, Chrischampeon, DRG, 3 x delistamps, djdilliodon, gmherps13, jmski52, Meltdown, Mesquite, 2 x nibanny, themaster, 2 x segoja, Timbuk3, ve3rules, jom, Blackhawk, hchcoin, Relaxn, pitboss, blu62vette, Jfoot13, Jinx86, jfoot13,Ronb

    Successful Trades: Swampboy,
  • TwoSides2aCoinTwoSides2aCoin Posts: 44,286 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>image >>



    As numismatics are concerned, a win/win situation and costing approximately $2.20 per day for a year for one coin. Prices subject to change. image
  • SLQSLQ Posts: 311 ✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>image >>



    As numismatics are concerned, a win/win situation and costing approximately $2.20 per day for a year for one coin. Prices subject to change. image >>



    image

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>NO DOUBT that they send returns back out. During the 2008 W ASE '08/w rev. of '07 craze I received many, many coins which had obviously been looked over by other collectors ordering many coins and sending back the non '07 reverse ones. >>

    All those coins you are talking about had no "issues". They were returned because they weren't 07 reverses. You really can't use that as an example. >>



    You are absolutely correct. I thought that the question was do they resell returns.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Regarding these frost breaks on the early-shipped coins vs. the nicer ones which were shipped more recently - do you think that the Mint produces a batch and uses LIFO to stock them as they are being produced, and LIFO when they start shipping them, i.e., are the "first strikes" really "First Strikes"?

    Just thought I'd stir the pot.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • Just received 2 proofs yesterday, both are going back. Numerous frost breaks on both, a small stain? on one and a small ding on the other. Both 69s at best. They should be paying my shipping back for sending such poor coins as I received.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Mint's website now shows Oct. 9 ship date for unc. Buchanans.

    One day at a time . . .

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>You are absolutely correct. I thought that the question was do they resell returns. >>

    The question was : Does the Mint resell rejects? Not does the mint resell returns. Of course the mint resells returns. Many coins are returned and checked on the return form:"changed my mind". Those coins would most certainly be reshipped out to fill new orders. The question is does the Mint resend out coins that the return form was checked: "damaged".
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭
    I got one proof yesterday. Scratch marks on the reverse. Going back. I got another on Monday although it has flaws I can live with it. It will stay raw.
    3 more are coming which were from an original return I ordered on Sept 2 the day they went on sale. So much for the theory of staggering orders for better quality. BTW I put on the form unacceptable quality, I hope they destroy it. Seems a lot of these are plaqued with frost breaks and the TPGs in order to get any 70s are probably allowing these. I don't mind that as long as the proof fields are flawless.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Half -

    Your 14k number may be close, except for being overstated by at least 4000 coins.

    **************************

    IMO - Look for 6500 proofs and 3500 uncs. That's it guys.

    We already have some forum members posting ship dates on the proof (via emailed messages from the USM) are out as far as the unc that went red.......10/8 and 10/9....

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What is the cut-off date for for the submission of Buch. FS? Thanks (tired of holding on the phone for PCGS).
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,200 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What is the cut-off date for for the submission of Buch. FS? Thanks (tired of holding on the phone for PCGS). >>



    I believe the PCGS FS rules are for 30 days after the coin goes on sale, which would be an October 2 postmark for this issue. However, I have never submitted to PCGS requesting this designation so I may very well be wrong.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image


  • << <i>What is the cut-off date for for the submission of Buch. FS? Thanks (tired of holding on the phone for PCGS). >>



    It is Oct 6th.
    First Strike Cut-Off date
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << IMO - Look for 6500 proofs and 3500 uncs. >>

    I'm sticking with my earlier guesstimate of 5400 proofs and 3400 uncs. I know sales for the uncs. are higher but I think they may have oversold their inventory and that number will ultimately be reduced. It's happened before.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made.

    Eric
  • aficionadoaficionado Posts: 2,309 ✭✭✭


    << <i>These WILL be for sale until Septemeber 2011, or until 15,000 have been sold.

    Why anyone would think they won't strike more if there is demand is beyond me.


    I mean they are going to strike the next one, then the next one, then the next one, what's so hard about putting in a Buchanan die for a series. They have all the planchets they need, because they have them for all the other designs.

    I think you people are overthinking this one. >>




    hmmm
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,349 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made.

    Eric >>



    Wow! That is a big change Eric!

    Thanks for the heads up...

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.


  • << <i>Well guys the coins were struck to anticipated demand but I do now think that we will see some more $10 bucks being made.

    Eric >>



    This is a sad news, but thanks for letting us know.

    I was really hoping the mint won't strike more, but I can have a more realistic expectation now.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86

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