Looks like we may come in close with low numbers if sellout is near. Buch MS has exceeded Julia so far, but less than Letitia. PR is still below Julia, but that will surely change.
Buch numbers as of 9/12 are 2978 MS / 4421 PR
Julia totals are 2861 / 4830.
***
Usually, orders made soon after B/O status seem to get placed. There will be many returns heading back. Then comes the dreaded WAIT LIST.
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day!
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
OK - here ya go -
Van Buren: 4334 / 7515
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
Jefferson: 20,000 / 20,000 Jackson: 4754 / 7806 Van Buren: 4334 / 7515 Buchanan: 2978 / 4421 (as of 9/12)
Julia: 2861 / 4830 (for comp purposes, lowest to date)
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
If anyone has a more reliable source -- please post.
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
To me, mintage doesn't mean a thing if I do not like that coin. For the subset, I keep only Van Buren and Buchanan because they look superb in proof. I'm thinking of buying one more proof Buchanan but a bit worry that I might be getting the returned coin.
Proof First Spouse Gold Year 2007 Washington ...19,167 2007 Adams ...17,149 2007 Jefferson ...19,815 2007 Madison ...17,943 2008 Monroe ...7,800 2008 Adams ...6,581 2008 Jackson ...7,684 2008 Van Buren ...7,364 2009 Harrison ...6,200 2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000 2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold Year 2007 Washington ...17,661 2007 Adams ...17,142 2007 Jefferson ...19,823 2007 Madison ...12,340 2008 Monroe ...4,462 2008 Adams ...3,885 2008 Jackson ...4,609 2008 Van Buren ...4,191 2009 Harrison ...3,500 2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200 2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800
Roughly
Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
Now that the 2010 Buchanan Liberty Gold MS is on backorder, will the balance of the Mint's Buchanan MS coins now be minted and ready to be sold in a few weeks or are they minting less than the 15,000 MS + PF and will be going at least with the MS on a waiting list and you get a flawed, returned MS coin? Comments please....
<< <i>How do we know the Mint hasn't simply sold their current inventory and will be giving the command to fire up the presses again? >>
That's the risk, but the downside isn't all that bad with gold at $1274. Even if 15,000 total are struck, I don't see the price of this coin going down to melt.
I'm not going to get into the guessing game about the 2010 Buchanan mintage... but I would imagine they'd just fire up the presses and make them up to the 15,000 max if they have the orders come in. They'd be crazy not to with the premiums they are charging.
What I don't understand is why we don't have exact mintage numbers for coins minted 2 years ago?? Why do we have different numbers depending on the source? Doesn't the Mint publish the totals???? If not, why don't they and how will we know the correct totals?
<< <i>Looks like we may come in close with low numbers if sellout is near. Buch MS has exceeded Julia so far, but less than Letitia. PR is still below Julia, but that will surely change.
Buch numbers as of 9/12 are 2978 MS / 4421 PR
Julia totals are 2861 / 4830. >>
So the two questions are:
(1) Does the number struck match recent demand? (2) Will they strike any more?
If the unc. inventory has been depleted, my guess (only a guess) for the number struck so far is about 3400 uncirculated and 5400 proof. If this turns out to be the case, and if no more are struck, then the Buchanan will be the key to the Liberty subset by a considerable margin. If this is not the case, I think it will still be a worthwhile coin to own.
<< <i>How do we know the Mint hasn't simply sold their current inventory and will be giving the command to fire up the presses again? >>
I think you are correct. I suspect they are now out of the initial batch of Uncs. They will now probably go to 100% on the second round using the current ratio of MS to proof sales as a guide. There is way too much time left to end sales on these because they exceeded initial supply IMO. But as Eric said, if they are in short supply of planchets then they could end sales soon. No one knows for sure.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
...the key here is how much more revenue will firing up those presses bring for a few thou more Buchanan's.........
answer.....
very little...not enough to care. >>
Probably the whole Spouse Series is a loser for the USM considering the cost of dies and packaging etc. Moy probably cusses a little under his breath each time the Spouse lines have to be fired up.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. I believe all orders up to 15,000 total will be filled, even if there's some delay. I ordered ten total on the first day, but felt obliged to return six for various flaws, of which the worst was a flagrant conspicuous gash at the base of the neck of Miss Liberty on an uncirculated. I especially hope nobody else is sent that one in particular, but all my returns would be undesirable for a knowledgeable collector.
However, I'm still unclear on what happens to inferior-quality returns at the mint, and hope someone on this forum will enlighten me. I understand some are sent out to later buyers, but are all? Are they examined when they're returned with the box checked on the return form that indicates flawed product? If the flawed coins are not sent out again, what happens to them, can they be reused as if they were blank planchets? Are any ever subtracted from the authorized mintage?
<< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there.
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia. >>
That is the way I remember it as well... I remember some folks getting upset when the Jackson coin became unavailable before they thought it would, but the coin was still available for 11 months or more. Maybe it didn't make it a full calendar year, but it was pretty close. Also, the fact that there were 5 spouse issues in 2009 (when the Jackson coin was pulled) likely affected the Mint's scheduling on when exactly to pull the Jackson coin.
All that said, I have no reason to believe, and have seen no compelling reasons other than speculation, that the Buchanan coin will still be available for purchase in the Spring and well into the Summer unless they sell 15,000 of them.
Most First Spouses have the same cut-off date (and hour and minute) for both versions, uncirculated and proof. Jackson Liberty sales ended on separate days for the uncirculated and the proof versions, and earlier than customary. Just like what appears to be happening with the Buchanan. This tells me that both the Jackson and the Buchanan coins were likely short struck.
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia. >>
That is the way I remember it as well... I remember some folks getting upset when the Jackson coin became unavailable before they thought it would, but the coin was still available for 11 months or more. Maybe it didn't make it a full calendar year, but it was pretty close. Also, the fact that there were 5 spouse issues in 2009 (when the Jackson coin was pulled) likely affected the Mint's scheduling on when exactly to pull the Jackson coin.
All that said, I have no reason to believe, and have seen no compelling reasons other than speculation, that the Buchanan coin will still be available for purchase in the Spring and well into the Summer unless they sell 15,000 of them. >>
<< <i>Most First Spouses have the same cut-off date (and hour and minute) for both versions, uncirculated and proof. Jackson Liberty sales ended on separate days for the uncirculated and the proof versions, and earlier than customary. Just like what appears to be happening with the Buchanan. This tells me that both the Jackson and the Buchanan coins were likely short struck. >>
Just like what appears to be happening with the Buchanan's? Your forgetting 1 major difference... the jackson coin was on sale for over 11 months, not just a couple of weeks like the buchanan coin. All of this theorizing about a short strike seems to be based on very little fact and mostly wishful thinking.
<< <i>Your forgetting 1 major difference... the jackson coin was on sale for over 11 months, not just a couple of weeks like the buchanan coin >>
Yes,but there is a difference this time also....................can you say Massive no household limit 2010 W proof AGE in all flavors(denominations) in a couple of weeks.
<< All of this theorizing about a short strike seems to be based on very little fact and mostly wishful thinking. >>
There's one important and verifiable fact supporting this theory - the uncirculated Buchanan is on back order, following a last reported mintage of 2,978. Adding a few hundred sales since last Tuesday's report would bring the mintage in line with several other recent First Spouse coins. If the Mint struck the Buchanan to anticipated demand, a short strike would be the most logical explanation for the backorder status. The big unknown is whether the Mint will strike more of them.
no one really knows where this issue will end up, we can only put together our scenarios based on previous actions by the USM as it relates to other issues - in the same series or not.
we need to ask ourselves the following questions:
#1 - How would you estimate how much raw material to procure for the striking of the remaining product for the year?
You certainly do not want to have vast quantities of "price volatile" product sitting on the shelves!! You dont want a whole bunch of unsold finished product either. Do you look at sales from previous years, or previous months, or the last issued of the type? Do you mint to maximum mintage, even though the last few issues didnt sell anywhere near that number?
# 2 - What do you do if you under estimate the quantity demanded?
You could strike up the presses, unless of course you only have enough raw material to satisfy your next issue before year end. Maybe your schedule is full and you could care less about additional coins of this type. Maybe move onto other issues announced already that are very popular and in demand by the collecting public (Prf AGE's).
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
I believe that because the AGE is coming and Mary Lincoln is just around the corner, the mint will short sale the Buchanan's and plan on a larger production of Mary Lincoln. They will save their material for the anticipated large demand for the units mentioned above. Mary will be the highest number for the 2010 series.
<< <i>From US Mint "Product will be available for shipping 10/04/2010"
From the outside page, it still shows 10/03, but when you click into the product, it shows 10/4. >>
That has happened on a few previous occasions. The shipping date would roll forward one day at a time until the order was either filled (with returns, presumably) or canceled.
I placed my MS order yesterday morning and the expected shipping date was 10/3. Last night I check the mint website moved the date to 10/4, but my order remained 10/3. This morning I check my order was also moved to 10/4.
<< <i>Moving up the shipping is a good sign that the Buchs are done. I could be wrong about these but expect the proofs to got to red this week also. >>
Very possible, my guess is about 3400 unc. and 5400 proofs were made, in line with some of the recent sales totals. If this is the case, the proofs should be worth about as much as the unc. because of higher demand. The biggest unknown is whether more will be struck.
<< <i>Moving up the shipping is a good sign that the Buchs are done. I could be wrong about these but expect the proofs to got to red this week also. >>
Very possible, my guess is about 3400 unc. and 5400 proofs were made, in line with some of the recent sales totals. If this is the case, the proofs should be worth about as much as the unc. because of higher demand. The biggest unknown is whether more will be struck. >>
I agree... the question is no long if they were short struck relative to demand. The question is will they strike any more?
<< <i>I'm not going to get into the guessing game about the 2010 Buchanan mintage... but I would imagine they'd just fire up the presses and make them up to the 15,000 max if they have the orders come in. They'd be crazy not to with the premiums they are charging.
What I don't understand is why we don't have exact mintage numbers for coins minted 2 years ago?? Why do we have different numbers depending on the source? Doesn't the Mint publish the totals???? If not, why don't they and how will we know the correct totals? >>
I agree, with such a high amount sold the 1st day/week, they called West Point and said strike the rest of the max mintage, and now there waiting for delivery.
<< <i>From US Mint "Product will be available for shipping 10/04/2010"
From the outside page, it still shows 10/03, but when you click into the product, it shows 10/4. >>
That has happened on a few previous occasions. The shipping date would roll forward one day at a time until the order was either filled (with returns, presumably) or canceled. >>
The collector demand for Liberties seems to around the 4K level from the past 3 issues. Not sure how many of these are dealers buying. The past issues seem scarce on ebay, apmex.... But if the MS Buch holds at 3400 it could get interesting.
Comments
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. >>
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. Who knows. I ordered two more MS. >>
Thanks for the heads up.
I just placed an order for MS, and my status is backordered. What does it mean? Will my order be filled?
<< <i>
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. Who knows. I ordered two more MS. >>
Thanks for the heads up.
I just placed an order for MS, and my status is backordered. What does it mean? Will my order be filled? >>
That's something that only God and the US Mint knows!
==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades
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<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. Who knows. I ordered two more MS. >>
Thanks for the heads up.
I just placed an order for MS, and my status is backordered. What does it mean? Will my order be filled? >>
That's something that only God and the US Mint knows!
I bet the Mint has not even told him the answer.
Buch numbers as of 9/12 are 2978 MS / 4421 PR
Julia totals are 2861 / 4830.
***
Usually, orders made soon after B/O status seem to get placed. There will be many returns heading back. Then comes the dreaded WAIT LIST.
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. Who knows. I ordered two more MS. >>
I think the proofs are a better deal *before* they go red.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
OK - here ya go -
Van Buren: 4334 / 7515
Jefferson: 20,000 / 20,000
Jackson: 4754 / 7806
Van Buren: 4334 / 7515
Buchanan: 2978 / 4421 (as of 9/12)
Julia: 2861 / 4830 (for comp purposes, lowest to date)
<< <i>
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
OK - here ya go -
Van Buren: 4334 / 7515 >>
I saw revised (lower) numbers posted on another thread:
Jackson Unc @ 4609
Jackson Proof @ 7684
Van Buren Unc @ 4191
Van Buren Proof @ 7364
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I got mine from the following site: First Spouse
If anyone has a more reliable source -- please post.
Proof First Spouse Gold
Year
2007 Washington ...19,167
2007 Adams ...17,149
2007 Jefferson ...19,815
2007 Madison ...17,943
2008 Monroe ...7,800
2008 Adams ...6,581
2008 Jackson ...7,684
2008 Van Buren ...7,364
2009 Harrison ...6,200
2009 Lititia Tyler ...5,000
2009 Julia Tyler ...4,800
Roughly
Mint State First Spouse Gold
Year
2007 Washington ...17,661
2007 Adams ...17,142
2007 Jefferson ...19,823
2007 Madison ...12,340
2008 Monroe ...4,462
2008 Adams ...3,885
2008 Jackson ...4,609
2008 Van Buren ...4,191
2009 Harrison ...3,500
2009 Lititia Tyler ...3,200
2009 Julia Tyler ...2,800
Roughly
<< <i>How do we know the Mint hasn't simply sold their current inventory and will be giving the command to fire up the presses again? >>
That's the risk, but the downside isn't all that bad with gold at $1274. Even if 15,000 total are struck, I don't see the price of this coin going down to melt.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
What I don't understand is why we don't have exact mintage numbers for coins minted 2 years ago?? Why do we have different numbers depending on the source? Doesn't the Mint publish the totals???? If not, why don't they and how will we know the correct totals?
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>Looks like we may come in close with low numbers if sellout is near. Buch MS has exceeded Julia so far, but less than Letitia. PR is still below Julia, but that will surely change.
Buch numbers as of 9/12 are 2978 MS / 4421 PR
Julia totals are 2861 / 4830. >>
So the two questions are:
(1) Does the number struck match recent demand?
(2) Will they strike any more?
If the unc. inventory has been depleted, my guess (only a guess) for the number struck so far is about 3400 uncirculated and 5400 proof. If this turns out to be the case, and if no more are struck, then the Buchanan will be the key to the Liberty subset by a considerable margin. If this is not the case, I think it will still be a worthwhile coin to own.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>How do we know the Mint hasn't simply sold their current inventory and will be giving the command to fire up the presses again? >>
I think you are correct. I suspect they are now out of the initial batch of Uncs. They will now probably go to 100% on the second round using the current ratio of MS to proof sales as a guide. There is way too much time left to end sales on these because they exceeded initial supply IMO. But as Eric said, if they are in short supply of planchets then they could end sales soon. No one knows for sure.
as Eric has eluded to the very high probability of short strikes...
dont count on our friends at the USM to fire up any presses for these Liberties,
they most likely have their hands full with AGE Proofs early next month, possibly ASE proofs afterwards,
and another Spouse Gold after that.......
the key here is how much more revenue will firing up those presses bring for a few thou more Buchanan's.........
answer.....
very little...not enough to care.
answer.....
very little...not enough to care. >>
Probably the whole Spouse Series is a loser for the USM considering the cost of dies and packaging etc. Moy probably cusses a little under his breath each time the Spouse lines have to be fired up.
However, I'm still unclear on what happens to inferior-quality returns at the mint, and hope someone on this forum will enlighten me. I understand some are sent out to later buyers, but are all? Are they examined when they're returned with the box checked on the return form that indicates flawed product? If the flawed coins are not sent out again, what happens to them, can they be reused as if they were blank planchets? Are any ever subtracted from the authorized mintage?
that's all i have to say.
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia.
<< <i>
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia. >>
That is the way I remember it as well... I remember some folks getting upset when the Jackson coin became unavailable before they thought it would, but the coin was still available for 11 months or more. Maybe it didn't make it a full calendar year, but it was pretty close. Also, the fact that there were 5 spouse issues in 2009 (when the Jackson coin was pulled) likely affected the Mint's scheduling on when exactly to pull the Jackson coin.
All that said, I have no reason to believe, and have seen no compelling reasons other than speculation, that the Buchanan coin will still be available for purchase in the Spring and well into the Summer unless they sell 15,000 of them.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i><< Since the authorized Buchanan spouse gold mintage is 15,000, there would be a heck of a ruckus if the mint failed to supply that amount while the demand was there. >>
Depends on how long the mint considers reasonable to keep them on sale. Jackson Liberty sales ended before the customary one-year off-sale date, and before the authorized mintage limit was reached. Many of the low-mintage 2008-W issues were discontinued while demand was still there. >>
I have been collecting these since the beginning and although I did not make note of the off-sale dates I do not remember any going off significantly early other than the sold-out ones and Julia Tyler but that can be explained by the fact that Julia was a extra with Letitia. >>
That is the way I remember it as well... I remember some folks getting upset when the Jackson coin became unavailable before they thought it would, but the coin was still available for 11 months or more. Maybe it didn't make it a full calendar year, but it was pretty close. Also, the fact that there were 5 spouse issues in 2009 (when the Jackson coin was pulled) likely affected the Mint's scheduling on when exactly to pull the Jackson coin.
All that said, I have no reason to believe, and have seen no compelling reasons other than speculation, that the Buchanan coin will still be available for purchase in the Spring and well into the Summer unless they sell 15,000 of them. >>
I'm very with you on that.
<< <i>Most First Spouses have the same cut-off date (and hour and minute) for both versions, uncirculated and proof. Jackson Liberty sales ended on separate days for the uncirculated and the proof versions, and earlier than customary. Just like what appears to be happening with the Buchanan. This tells me that both the Jackson and the Buchanan coins were likely short struck. >>
Just like what appears to be happening with the Buchanan's? Your forgetting 1 major difference... the jackson coin was on sale for over 11 months, not just a couple of weeks like the buchanan coin. All of this theorizing about a short strike seems to be based on very little fact and mostly wishful thinking.
Michael Kittle Rare Coins --- 1908-S Indian Head Cent Grading Set --- No. 1 1909 Mint Set --- Kittlecoins on Facebook --- Long Beach Table 448
<< <i>Your forgetting 1 major difference... the jackson coin was on sale for over 11 months, not just a couple of weeks like the buchanan coin >>
Yes,but there is a difference this time also....................can you say Massive no household limit 2010 W proof AGE in all flavors(denominations) in a couple of weeks.
There's one important and verifiable fact supporting this theory - the uncirculated Buchanan is on back order, following a last reported mintage of 2,978. Adding a few hundred sales since last Tuesday's report would bring the mintage in line with several other recent First Spouse coins. If the Mint struck the Buchanan to anticipated demand, a short strike would be the most logical explanation for the backorder status. The big unknown is whether the Mint will strike more of them.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
we need to ask ourselves the following questions:
#1 - How would you estimate how much raw material to procure for the striking of the remaining product for the year?
You certainly do not want to have vast quantities of "price volatile" product sitting on the shelves!! You dont want a whole bunch of unsold finished product either. Do you look at sales from previous years, or previous months, or the last issued of the type? Do you mint to maximum mintage, even though the last few issues didnt sell anywhere near that number?
# 2 - What do you do if you under estimate the quantity demanded?
You could strike up the presses, unless of course you only have enough raw material to satisfy your next issue before year end. Maybe your schedule is full and you could care less about additional coins of this type. Maybe move onto other issues announced already that are very popular and in demand by the collecting public (Prf AGE's).
<< <i>Better grab the MS Buchs because they just went to red. Ship date now Oct. Maybe they are short struck. Who knows. I ordered two more MS. >>
Thanks for the heads up. Ordering two now. Wish I had seen your post hours ago!
<< <i>I'm not so interested in the comparison with the Julia numbers, I never expected Buchanan to be the low mintage of the entire First Spouse series. It's the the Van Buren numbers that are more important IMO. Will the Buchanans be the key of the Liberty subset? That is the question of the day! >>
I agree!!!
From the outside page, it still shows 10/03, but when you click into the product, it shows 10/4.
<< <i>From US Mint "Product will be available for shipping 10/04/2010"
From the outside page, it still shows 10/03, but when you click into the product, it shows 10/4. >>
That has happened on a few previous occasions. The shipping date would roll forward one day at a time until the order was either filled (with returns, presumably) or canceled.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Box of 20
Last night I check the mint website moved the date to 10/4, but my order remained 10/3.
This morning I check my order was also moved to 10/4.
<< <i>Moving up the shipping is a good sign that the Buchs are done. I could be wrong about these but expect the proofs to got to red this week also. >>
Very possible, my guess is about 3400 unc. and 5400 proofs were made, in line with some of the recent sales totals. If this is the case, the proofs should be worth about as much as the unc. because of higher demand. The biggest unknown is whether more will be struck.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>Moving up the shipping is a good sign that the Buchs are done. I could be wrong about these but expect the proofs to got to red this week also. >>
Very possible, my guess is about 3400 unc. and 5400 proofs were made, in line with some of the recent sales totals. If this is the case, the proofs should be worth about as much as the unc. because of higher demand. The biggest unknown is whether more will be struck. >>
I agree... the question is no long if they were short struck relative to demand. The question is will they strike any more?
Eric
<< <i>I'm not going to get into the guessing game about the 2010 Buchanan mintage... but I would imagine they'd just fire up the presses and make them up to the 15,000 max if they have the orders come in. They'd be crazy not to with the premiums they are charging.
What I don't understand is why we don't have exact mintage numbers for coins minted 2 years ago?? Why do we have different numbers depending on the source? Doesn't the Mint publish the totals???? If not, why don't they and how will we know the correct totals? >>
I agree, with such a high amount sold the 1st day/week, they called West Point and said strike the rest of the max mintage, and now there waiting for delivery.
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
<< <i>
<< <i>From US Mint "Product will be available for shipping 10/04/2010"
From the outside page, it still shows 10/03, but when you click into the product, it shows 10/4. >>
That has happened on a few previous occasions. The shipping date would roll forward one day at a time until the order was either filled (with returns, presumably) or canceled. >>
Could be because 10/3 is a Sunday?
Successful Trades: Swampboy,
Box of 20
If they are going to reuse the old die, will those "first strike" coins have better quality?