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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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    HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Half

    You made the comment quoted, not me!!!!

    No egg here......

    >>



    You already said earlier-

    <<<<IMO, sellout within a week or less at anticipated demand.>>>>


    Linky, look 5 posts down from top

    Right now it looks like no sell out this week, next week, or this month even. Actually that is good because I would rather this coin end up lower mintage than Van Buren, but I doubt that happens. I still think the mint will stamp out more than you think, and nobody even said what "anticipated demand" is numbers wise. Is it 10,000 coins? 12,000, or 14, 999?

    I would guess you mean less than the Van Buren numbers, so it has to come in lower than that. Anything over that and the mint added more coins.image

    PS All spouse coins so far have sold out at the maximum mintage in the year of issue only and none have sold out at anticipated demand yet in the year of issue [the Jackson proof was in the year after issue which doesn't count]. That is why it seems highly unlikely what you want will happen.

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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I'll stick with my earlier comment that I'll be able to buy another example of the Buchanan Liberty from the Mint next summer if I want to as they'll still be for sale until next September. I have a feeling they may cost more then with increased gold prices however. We'll see...

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    fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I tried reverse herd logic and bought a Sarah Polk in MS on the last day it was for sale. Should be at my door this AM.
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭
    I doubt these will still be for sale by October. Gold is about to take off and those that brought early will be pleased. JMO
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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,505 ✭✭✭
    Received my order from the mint today.
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    For you early recipients, please post a pic of all four Liberty's together when you get a moment.
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    << <i>... SOLD AS MANY BUCH LIBS AS THE OTHER FS ISSUES HAVE IN 6-9 MONTHS IN 3 DAYS! ... >>



    I hope the Mint learns from this that we want classic designs, not the heads of dead presidents and spouses.
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    ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 7,939 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>... SOLD AS MANY BUCH LIBS AS THE OTHER FS ISSUES HAVE IN 6-9 MONTHS IN 3 DAYS! ... >>



    I hope the Mint learns from this that we want classic designs, not the heads of dead presidents and spouses. >>



    My take is that sales are brisk due to gold demand and not any crazy demand for this issue. By dumb luck it may sellout but not anytime soon. With the fractional (W) Eagles coming to market soon I believe it will kill the sales.....or at least stunt them. The US Mint could issue a gold coin with Bozo the Clown on it and sell thousands of coins.
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    << <i> The US Mint could issue a gold coin with Bozo the Clown on it and sell thousands of coins. >>



    When will these new "Bozo the Clown" gold coins be issued? I have some interest in this classic WGN TV Channel 9 character.
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    ManorcourtmanManorcourtman Posts: 7,939 ✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i> The US Mint could issue a gold coin with Bozo the Clown on it and sell thousands of coins. >>



    When will these new "Bozo the Clown" gold coins be issued? I have some interest in this classic WGN TV Channel 9 character. >>



    image I think Congress has to approve it, don't laugh, it could happen with the way things are run in the DC!!
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    mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just received mine and made a quick pass through all. Based on my small sampling size (3 of each), it's going to be hard to nail a PR70. There is so much "smooth" detail (cheek, neck, flat surfaces, etc) that there is a lot of space for frost breaks/hits/specks - whatever you call it when the frosting is interrupted. Virtually the entire reverse is frosted detail - there is only a very small field area. Only one of my proofs has a shot at 70 at best. The Uncs, on the other hand, look a little better. Only one of mine had minor nicks on the reverse that would knock it down to a 69. JMHO.

    Sorry, no pics today. Too busy to set up...
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    CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    My take is that sales are brisk due to gold demand and not any crazy demand for this issue. By dumb luck it may sellout but not anytime soon. With the fractional (W) Eagles coming to market soon I believe it will kill the sales.....or at least stunt them. The US Mint could issue a gold coin with Bozo the Clown on it and sell thousands of coins. >>




    Gold demand has been brisk for quite a while. That would not explain any recent escalated sales activity. Besides, if gold was all you wanted you would buy Eagle bullion or Canadian maple leafs. They have less of a premium.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
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    ttownttown Posts: 4,472 ✭✭✭


    << <i>My take is that sales are brisk due to gold demand and not any crazy demand for this issue. By dumb luck it may sellout but not anytime soon. With the fractional (W) Eagles coming to market soon I believe it will kill the sales.....or at least stunt them. The US Mint could issue a gold coin with Bozo the Clown on it and sell thousands of coins. >>




    Gold demand has been brisk for quite a while. That would not explain any recent escalated sales activity. Besides, if gold was all you wanted you would buy Eagle bullion or Canadian maple leafs. They have less of a premium. >>



    I agree. It's not like the last old hag sold out and has the lowest mintage to date with gold being right up there all the time. Looks like demand on completing the 4 pc set to me, of course these sets will always be sub 5000 set's no matter how many they mint.
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Half

    I am glad you are so sure of yourself......



    << <i>Right now it looks like no sell out this week, next week, or this month even. >>



    You have one strike already, looking for strike two?image

    I assume you have no idea of what anticipated demand is? You probably think they just fire up those presses and mint coins as the orders come in? Or, maybe mint all 15,000? Do you think the USM wants excess inventory sitting on their shelves for a year?

    Absolutely not.

    IMO, they didnt go more than 12,000 pieces on this issue. Maybe less. And it's over. No 11th hour extra strikes. That's it. They have a full schedule for the rest of the year. However you want to break that out between Prf/Unc is your guess.
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Half

    I am glad you are so sure of yourself......



    << <i>Right now it looks like no sell out this week, next week, or this month even. >>



    You have one strike already, looking for strike two?image

    I assume you have no idea of what anticipated demand is? You probably think they just fire up those presses and mint coins as the orders come in? Or, maybe mint all 15,000? Do you think the USM wants excess inventory sitting on their shelves for a year?

    Absolutely not.

    IMO, they didnt go more than 12,000 pieces on this issue. Maybe less. And it's over. No 11th hour extra strikes. That's it. They have a full schedule for the rest of the year. However you want to break that out between Prf/Unc is your guess. >>




    I'm guessing the strike is just under 5,000/8,000 for MS/Prf. I think they coined for a higher demand of the last Liberty. Either way, the total number of four coin sets possible range 4,000+/7,000+. Give this set a few years. How many MS "Jackie Robinson" coins were there? Right, the design was not too exciting. Either Jackie comes way down or the Liberty's with great design appeal take off. Of course there's always that distribution thingy to factor. I think once all four coins are presented in holders du jour the Liberty fever will begin.
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    HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    7/8 they strike a lot more coins than they have in inventory, sometimes twice or three times as many if they ruin a lot on the presses. The FOIA request showed that, so they may have struck 20,000 to 30,000 coins but only 13,000 met quality standards and the rest were destroyed.

    Anyway we will see what the report is next week, but sales will probably slow down if this goes like past coins and your expectation of a fast sellout hasn't panned out so far.image
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Full Liberty subset minus one proof...


    image
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    jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,533 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Pretty baubles, comrade!image
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
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    drfishdrfish Posts: 938 ✭✭✭✭
    Well I just recieved my seven proof Buchanans and every one has a few very minute breaks in the frost on Liberties portrait -primarily in the hair curls.Would they have a chance at pr70 or should I save my money and keep them in the OGP? one has three whitish spots in the fields so I'll be sending that one back
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    mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Well I just recieved my seven proof Buchanans and every one has a few very minute breaks in the frost on Liberties portrait -primarily in the hair curls.Would they have a chance at pr70 or should I save my money and keep them in the OGP? one has three whitish spots in the fields so I'll be sending that one back >>



    Sounds like my three...I do think one of mine might have a shot at 70, it was pretty clean. The other two had a good case of freckles. My Unc were clearly better quality than the proofs, but even at that, one of the Uncs had a flaw on the leading book page. It almost looks like the page is torn (struck through, maybe?). All 6 of mine are on their way to Newport Beach as I write - I had to use my 8 freebies on something...
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    CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    My proofs have some breaks in the frost too but one might go 70. Judging by the comments so far, I suspect that even though the mintages are higher on these the ratio of 70's to 69's will be low. As Mr. T might say... I pitty the foo' who buys these late because it seems there are going to be a good number of returns.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I took a decent look at my proof and my unc and didn't notice any issues with either and no issues with the frosting on the proof. I'll never submit them for a 70 though either so I didn't pull out my microscope. I'm happy with the coins I received and will be keeping them.
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    cmerlo1cmerlo1 Posts: 7,902 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>image >>



    To me, this pic shows just how bad coin designs have gotten, compared to what they once were...
    You Suck! Awarded 6/2008- 1901-O Micro O Morgan, 8/2008- 1878 VAM-123 Morgan, 9/2022 1888-O VAM-1B3 H8 Morgan | Senior Regional Representative- ANACS Coin Grading. Posted opinions on coins are my own, and are not an official ANACS opinion.
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    Is anyone leaving them sealed in the box?
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    illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is anyone leaving them sealed in the box? >>



    the boxes aren't sealed to begin with. unless you mean the shipping container that the boxed coins come in? either way, I always open any coins I get, mostly to check accuracy of my order and quality of the coins. just imagine a few years from now you open your box only to find they only sent you one coin instead of two!!!! Or maybe they sent you two, but two of the wrong coins! you're out of luck at that point I would guess.

    moreover, i collect coins and not boxes image
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    7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Half

    I have to say it. You have absolutely no idea of what you are talking about. FOIA request? Have you even sent a FOIA request at all? I'm not surprised that you are so sure of yourself on the interpretation of those requests. Everyone else would like an explanation from the powers that be - why should we even bother - we should just ask you !!

    I filed one of those requests myself. We knew the numbers were bad. And the answer is not super high % of defective coins. It's all about the interpretation of the request. After all, the devil is in the details.

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    Considering the recent posts suggesting that a 70 will be hard to find, leaving the coins in mint packaging might have an upside on the secondary market (box collecting aside). I expect, after all, that many of these coins were bought in multiples with hopes of selling a set after all.
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    << <i>Is anyone leaving them sealed in the box? >>





    probably a bad idea with the mints poor quality control.I bought a 2010 gold buff proof when they came out and didnt open the box figuring I wanted a first strike designation.Shortly after that I was put in the hospital for two weeks. When I came out I needed nursing care at home and didnt submit it.When I decided to open the box for a look I was disgusted.The indians cheek has a large area where there is no frosting.No chance for even a 69 grade.Dont know if I will order another one and return this one for a refund or just keep it as bullion.
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    renman95renman95 Posts: 7,037 ✭✭✭✭✭
    My MS and Proof were floating like a butterfly when I opened each box. The MS coin was a rattler to boot. The plastic coin-tainer had not been properly snapped tight. Gotta love that QA. image
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    Received two Unc and two Prf today. The Uncs look good but the Prfs are not. One has a light scratch and the other Prf looks pitted and has a couple small frosted circle spots. I'll have to order two more prfs and send these two back. After I looked at them I came back to this thread to see if anyone else reported problems with the prfs; looks like I'm not alone.
    Remember, I'm pullen for ya; we're all in this together.---Red Green---
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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,505 ✭✭✭
    My four proofs will not make 70. Speckled frost breaks on all of them. Very poor quality control. Keeping one and exchanging the others. I will have to buy the 70's and not make them. My other order is coming in today. Always good to stagger your orders. Seems all the crappy ones can be in one batch.
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    mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,164 ✭✭✭✭✭
    What if the majority of the proofs have speckled frost breaks? So far, a lot of the feedback is pointing that way. Or is it that the ones without speckles are not chiming in? Let's get some more reports and see if we can detect a trend...
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    PlacidPlacid Posts: 11,301 ✭✭✭
    Got mine today.

    image
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    claychaserclaychaser Posts: 4,405 ✭✭✭✭
    Just looked at 13 proofs. Several had noticeable pits on Liberty's neck, and almost all have freckles in the fields or noticeable frost breaks on the portrait. I'm down to 3 candidates, but I see possible flaws in each for the coveted 70 grade.


    ==Looking for pre WW2 Commems in PCGS Rattler holders, 1851-O Three Cent Silvers in all grades



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    123cents123cents Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭
    Got my proof today. Do you have to keep the Mint shipping box sealed to get "First Strike" designation with PCGS?
    image
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    pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,505 ✭✭✭
    Got my proof today. Do you have to keep the Mint shipping box sealed to get "First Strike" designation with PCGS?

    No. Only need to be sealed if you send to PCGS after the first strike deadline
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    AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,690 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just looked at 4 proofs and all but one were speckled with numerous frost breaks on both sides. The "better" coin had only a few very minor breaks. Not sure if it's worth submitting.

    How does pcgs & ngc treat the breaks? Can a very minor break pass the 70 test? If anyone has a graded coin in hand, it would be interesting to know.


    On a similar note -- MCM has NGC PF70's now listed at $899. Kudos to Mr. John Maben for starting these at an attractive price (see prior discussion in this thread).
    Perhaps he could comment here if they are in hand.


    BTW - the 4 Unc's I looked at were much better. One appeared flawless.
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    MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,507 ✭✭✭✭✭
    first strike deadline...
    in the shipping co's hand by oct. 6th or the box from the mint has to be sent by oct. 6th and mailed unopened to PCGS.


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    Mine came thursday but Im just not as impressed as I thought I would be.
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Is anyone leaving them sealed in the box? >>



    I ordered two sets. If I don't send the second set back (still debating) I will leave it sealed in the box (i.e., The Mint's shipping box).

    As I've mentioned before, I x-ray these boxes to be sure as sure as one can w/x-ray that what I ordered is what's in the box.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>My MS and Proof were floating like a butterfly when I opened each box. The MS coin was a rattler to boot. The plastic coin-tainer had not been properly snapped tight. Gotta love that QA. image >>



    Both my Proof and MS were loose but still in the capsules which were well sealed w/no rattle.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
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    AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,690 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Is anyone leaving them sealed in the box? >>



    I ordered two sets. If I don't send the second set back (still debating) I will leave it sealed in the box (i.e., The Mint's shipping box).

    As I've mentioned before, I x-ray these boxes to be sure as sure as one can w/x-ray that what I ordered is what's in the box. >>




    Cool -- are you a radiologist? I wonder what a hospital would charge for this?
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    JohnMabenJohnMaben Posts: 957 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I just looked at 4 proofs and all but one were speckled with numerous frost breaks on both sides. The "better" coin had only a few very minor breaks. Not sure if it's worth submitting.

    How does pcgs & ngc treat the breaks? Can a very minor break pass the 70 test? If anyone has a graded coin in hand, it would be interesting to know.


    On a similar note -- MCM has NGC PF70's now listed at $899. Kudos to Mr. John Maben for starting these at an attractive price (see prior discussion in this thread).
    Perhaps he could comment here if they are in hand.


    BTW - the 4 Unc's I looked at were much better. One appeared flawless. >>



    I can't speak for anyone else's coins, but as for the first two hundred or so of ours they are on par with the last few issues in terms of quality. There will be many 70's cranked out from both services. I still expect a quick sell out at the U.S. Mint, and once that occurs (if not sooner) my guess is we will no longer be offering them at the current level.

    John

    John Maben
    Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
    ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
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    LindeDadLindeDad Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just ordered a second proof and uncirulated today still saying in stock.
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    MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,507 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>My MS and Proof were floating like a butterfly when I opened each box. The MS coin was a rattler to boot. The plastic coin-tainer had not been properly snapped tight. Gotta love that QA. image >>



    Both my Proof and MS were loose but still in the capsules which were well sealed w/no rattle. >>



    yeah, I still get that...

    it is a bit of a pain to restore the pile to the velvet to eradicate the indentation.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
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    MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,507 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Just ordered a second proof and uncirulated today still saying in stock. >>



    I'm debating about doing a return and ordering more before any possible price increase Thur.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
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    CoinCrazyPACoinCrazyPA Posts: 2,899 ✭✭✭✭
    What if any downside is there to sending a Buch back for an exchange rather then returning one and buying another? I have a really awful looking UNC one, with a grease struck through or something. It has tiny holes in the field and discolored.
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    AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,690 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What if any downside is there to sending a Buch back for an exchange rather then returning one and buying another? I have a really awful looking UNC one, with a grease struck through or something. It has tiny holes in the field and discolored. >>



    Only if they are out of stock. Sounds like you have a no-brainer exchange case.
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    MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,507 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>What if any downside is there to sending a Buch back for an exchange rather then returning one and buying another? I have a really awful looking UNC one, with a grease struck through or something. It has tiny holes in the field and discolored. >>




    overall speed of one process over the other
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