They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I am wondering where these came from. Seems I recall calling the Mint after they cancelled the subscription and asked about the boxes and they said they didn't have them. Did any one see them selling on the Mint web site?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
PinkFloyd, thanks for the heads up on MCM web site where they had deleted the NGC PF 70 Bucks and raised the asking price for their NGC 69 69 Bucks. Very interesting !!
The sell out of the proof version of the coin occurred on February 8, 2011, after roughly five months of availability. The uncirculated version of the coin remains available for sale.
The US Mint had announced a maximum mintage of 15,000 coins for this issue. However, based on demand forecasts, the US Mint only struck 13,000 across proof and uncirculated versions before the close of the year.
According to the most recent weekly sales report, the James Buchanan’s Liberty Gold Coin had recorded sales of 7,317 proof and 4,461 uncirculated coins, making a total of 11,778.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping. >>
I am wondering where these came from. Seems I recall calling the Mint after they cancelled the subscription and asked about the boxes and they said they didn't have them. Did any one see them selling on the Mint web site? >>
I forgot to mention I bought a proof one off the mint's web site way back when. That's how I have the price for that one, but not the Unc.
which isn't necessarily a bad thing to have them talking since it is our gov't. the big fear is that misinformation or incomplete info gets out and adversely affects something. So, one must always take insider info with a grain of salt and a large helping of discretion.
I was wondering the same thing. The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck 3000 uncs were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor. Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold eagles from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008 .86 .90 .64 .82
2007 .86 .91 .92 .92
2006 .85 .87 .86 .85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440 Normal scrap gives us with 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125 Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906 Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson 7,684 Jackson 6,807 Van Buren 5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now.
<< <i>I was wondering the same thing. The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck 3000 unc were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor. Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008 .86 .90 .64 .82
2007 .86 .91 .92 .92
2006 .85 .87 .86 .85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440 Normal scrap gives us assuming 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125 Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906 Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,700
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson 7,684 Jackson 6,807 Van Buren 5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now. >>
Can we be assured that the 13000 struck included the scrap because if you apply your 0.875 scrap rate to 15000 you get about 13000. Isn't it possible that the insider who reported 13000 was reporting saleable coins.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I was told planchets struck. They can not come up with exactly 15,000 or 13,000 finished coins that pass QC without making extra and then melting some good coins. We are not "assured" of anything in life other than we will die. We were not assured that these coins were struct to anticipated demand. We were not assured that they would only be struck once. We were not assured that they would not be anything but thats what the Mints habits, employees and the data indicated. Now I would suggest to those that need to be "assured" that they sell all their coins and stock and anything else that they have and go buy T BILLS.
I think you were the same guy that needed to suggest that a 5% scrap rate was high with zero data to base that on.
<< <i>I was told planchets struck. They can not come up with exactly 15,000 or 13,000 finished coins that pass QC without making extra and then melting some good coins. We are not "assured" of anything in life other than we will die. We were not assured that these coins were struct to anticipated demand. We were not assured that they would only be struck once. We were not assured that they would not be anything but thats what the Mints habits, employees and the data indicated. Now I would suggest to those that need to be "assured" that they sell all their coins and stock and anything else that they have and go buy T BILLS. >>
Can we be assured that T-BILLS are ok?
These days, I think I like coins better.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I think you were the same guy that needed to suggest that a 5% scrap rate was high with zero data to base that on. >>
This is what I responded to-a statement made by 7/8...
"We know it was short struck, we know waste rates could be at least 5% and maybe as high as 15-20%"
I would not have thought 5% was high but the other range (15-20%) seemed excessive to me. I see you have the statistics but that was not known to me at the time. Even so, most of your numbers look closer to 10-12%.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>I was wondering the same thing. The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck 3000 unc were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor. Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008 .86 .90 .64 .82
2007 .86 .91 .92 .92
2006 .85 .87 .86 .85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440 Normal scrap gives us assuming 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125 Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906 Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson 7,684 Jackson 6,807 Van Buren 5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now. >>
Applying the same logic to the MS Buchanan's, what are the scrap rates for them and where could they possibly end up, even considering a maximum mintage of 6,500 coins? I'm still holding out for them, too.
<< <i>Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008 .86 .90 .64 .82
2007 .86 .91 .92 .92
2006 .85 .87 .86 .85 >>
I am not sure what numbers were used to come up with these, but since no First Spouse were issued in 2006 and they are only 1/2 ounce these must also be from other coins. It would seem the scrap rates in this sequence is very low, but from the numbers I see it is also likely that scrap rates of 40% of total coins struck could be destroyed, so I can't see how they strike 7000 and have any more than 5250 proofs or so. Of coarse that makes no sense as sales went over 7000 so something is not adding up.
From the scrap rates on the 2008 gold buffalo proofs we had 1 oz 9% bad, 1/2 oz 41% bad, 1/4 oz 41% bad, and 1/10 oz 24% bad.
These Buch seem closest to the proof buffalo coins perhaps so this is why I am using those. The 1/2 oz was 41% bad so 7000 struck minus 41% is only 4130 coins. We would all agree that is impossible for a final for the buch proof.
So the mint must have struck more than 7000 to get to whatever they sold, unless they have perfected striking these which I seriously doubt, especially considering the bad quality of the early strikes, or they decided all strikes were good and the press operator was blind.
Raw data 2008 proof buffalo struck
1 oz. Proof: 20,580 ½ oz. Proof: 20,602 ¼ oz. Proof: 22,060 1/10 oz proof : 24,725
Final mintages
1 oz. Proof: 18,863 ½ oz. Proof: 12,169 ¼ oz. Proof: 13,125 1/10 oz proof : 18,884
Half, the numbers are from proof gold eagles from 2006, 2007 and 2008. Yes the 2008 plats and buffs have much lower percentage of good coins out of the planchets struck but that year is much worse than typical. I wrote an article in Numismatic News about 8 weeks ago covering the topic of the 2008 scrap rate disaster. If you use that years data it is likely to give you bad results.
So what is the point if any? The planchets struck are the planchets struck and we have hard data on them. The only question left for those who don’t just want to be bull headed is what is the scrap rate? The point is the real numbers could produce a very serious revision in the proof Buck numbers because any of the likely loss rates puts a 6000 or less final into the realm of likely.
Large downward revisions in the weekly sales report almost always show up when the coins sales are violent at some point. Even more so when violent sales turn into uncertainty. The guys with big credit card orders cancel the orders, those that just got in a big shipment return. Any Quality issue increases the double count too because they get returned and then sold again in most cases. All these issues showed up in spades and thus they are perfect candidates for a big drop.
I am writing to those who had ears and bought some. Good for you guys.
A likely low mintage is not the only thing that will influence the price of the Buchanan proof. There's also a "substitution effect" to consider.
Right now the prices of the other three Liberty subset coins are similar for the uncirculated and proof versions. The Jeffersons are basically bullion (and will likely remain that way). The Jackson and Van Buren carry nearly identical premiums, which reflect the relative mintages and current popularity of the two finishes.
The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset.
This demand shift is not likely to be large, but I suspect it will be significant enough to keep the price of the proof Buchanan lower than it would have been with fewer uncircs in the marketplace.
Being optimistic, will the scarce PF Buck carry even more of a premium over gold's bullion price if gold keeps going up ? Comments. And a Big "Thank You" to Eric Jordan for all of his insight concernimg modern rare coins.
<< <i>The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset. >>
I used to "buy" this thought process.
Until you see all the spill over from the Unc Jackie to the Proof Jackie. Oops. Not exactly. Nowhere near the unc pricing for years.
The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck 3000 uncs were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor. Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold eagles from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008 .86 .90 .64 .82
2007 .86 .91 .92 .92
2006 .85 .87 .86 .85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440 Normal scrap gives us with 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125 Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906 Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688 High scrap and low bound 6500 planchets= 6500x.85=5,525
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson 7,684 Jackson 6,807 Van Buren 5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and its likely outcomes. But its does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now.
***************************************** Applying the same logic to the MS Buchanan's, what are the scrap rates for them and where could they possibly end up, even considering a maximum mintage of 6,500 coins? I'm still holding out for them, too.
Answer: You have almost no hope of having the UNC buck come in less than 5,000 uncs final mintage by the time they close in the early fall of this year and the report comes out around the first of next year. Third place in a 4 coin set is not so hot. Change horses while its inexpensive to do so. I have gold unc bucks to cover my personal set needs and thats it. My ratio is 8 to 1 proof bucks vs unc bucks. 4 to 1 van buren uncs to any other FS unc.
<< <i>The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset. >>
I used to "buy" this thought process.
Until you see all the spill over from the Unc Jackie to the Proof Jackie. Oops. Not exactly. Nowhere near the unc pricing for years.
I dont think so. >>
There are 4.65 Jackie Robinson gold proofs for every uncirculated specimen, so no surprise that the proof is *way* cheaper. But the price gap between the unc. and the proof has declined by about $1,000 during the past 3 years.
Any casual collector who wants a gold Jackie will almost certainly buy the proof. If the prices were reversed, that same collector would almost certainly buy the uncirculated.
I'm guessing that substitution will be somewhat mitigated here due to the Buck being part of a fairly coherent Liberty set rather than a stand-alone like Jackie. Lots of folks with Bucks will be collecting the Liberty subset, and I don't see folks collecting a 4-coin mishmash of proofs/uncs based on what they can get the cheapest. There might be a few, but not many.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
I had to go to Union Station in D.C. on Wed. I stopped by The Mink kiosk. I asked about the Buch Proofs. He said that he had several on Monday when they went dark, which was days after they went on back order. He said that as soon as they go dark on the web he has to pull his stock. On the other hand, like w/many other issues, when they are back ordered on the web. they are often still at the Kiosks. I just didn't think to run down there. Oops. Should have done that for sure. You can look the coins over and only take a coin if it looks nice. Oh well.
<< <i>The "substitution effect" is alive and well. >>
So says you. Not me.
There is no "substitution effect" severe enough within the Jackies to deteriorate the Unc pricing in ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.
I believe your point was that if the Proof Buch saw a number inline with the Uncs, but at a low enough number for the Proof where the premium went sky high, collectors would opt for the Unc.
Your point in theory sounds fine, but in practice doesnt happen often.
The Proof and Unc buyers have very different tastes.
Overdate you better snap in line or they will start calling you my alt.
BTW anybody can go back and reads this thread to see what the predictions were, some thought a sellout in a day or week at most, and while it wouldn't have surprise me if it happened it didn't, just like the prediction that they would strike no more coins but they did.
How quickly we forget. Like I said earlier, part of the fun of this message boards is making predictions and seeing who comes true. At least fess up to what you predict and not pretend amnesia.
I really don't know what to make of the proof buchs, I could see a range from 7000 all the way down to 5600 if the mint has a bad disaster with these. If the mintages are down at 5900 then these could be as good as the VB unc coins. If it is closer to 6600 or higher then not so much according to my math. My hunch is the 13,000 figure is the target amount of coins, so they struck as many as needed to get to that.
Anyway we won't know for a year so spinning wheels on this is all we are doing.
PS Interesting how nobody has the actual amount of coins struck for all the spouse coins, that is what we need. Anyway at least we all seem to put our money where our mouths are, and that is what counts in the end. I have way too much in coins right now but the mint keeps dishing out the treats.
<< <i>The "substitution effect" is alive and well. >>
So says you. Not me.
There is no "substitution effect" severe enough within the Jackies to deteriorate the Unc pricing in ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.
I believe your point was that if the Proof Buch saw a number inline with the Uncs, but at a low enough number for the Proof where the premium went sky high, collectors would opt for the Unc.
Your point in theory sounds fine, but in practice doesnt happen often.
The Proof and Unc buyers have very different tastes. >>
The substitution effect occurs at the margin. If the price of a proof Buchanan rises to 3x the price of the uncirculated, a certain number of collectors who would otherwise buy the proof will buy the uncirculated instead. This includes collectors of modest means, whose desire to economize outweighs their desire to obtain a proof. There may not be many collectors who fit this description, but given the low absolute mintages of the Buchanans, it would take only a relative handful of collectors acting in this manner to affect the price of both finishes.
For an extreme example of the substitution effect, check out the price of the 1895 proof Morgan dollar. It is many times the price of other proof Morgans with similar mintages. This price disparity is entirely due to additional demand from collectors of circulation strike Morgans, "substituting" the proof for the unobtainable uncirculated specimen.
Platinum American Eagles' future uncertain While the United States Mint's platinum American Eagle bullion coin program has not been discontinued, Mint officials are still assessing the program's future.
<< <i>Is the offical non USM lowest sales/mintage award of all four Liberty Proofs presented to the 2010 Buchanan Proof Spousal $10 Gold coin ?? >>
that won't officially be handed out until later, but bets are on the Buch to be slightly under the VB. (for the proofs. the unc. are a different story)
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I guess now I'm going to have to fight you guys to get them. (I was hoping for a complete set to go with my hopefully complete set. I know some years have 5 coins. I'd just insert 4 and keep 1 separate or maybe buy an extra for the second wives club) >>
Well, if only I could find where I put that box with the boxes.
Product Name Quantity Price (each) Total Item Status Cancel
Comments
I knew it would happen.
I see a few in the Liberty subset sales, but maybe they're waiting to see what happens with the market....
EDIT: Looks like they're testing the waters on ebay.
<< <i>They are 2007 issues by the mint.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I am wondering where these came from. Seems I recall calling the Mint after they cancelled the subscription and asked about the boxes and they said they didn't have them. Did any one see them selling on the Mint web site?
PROOF SOLD OUT!
The sell out of the proof version of the coin occurred on February 8, 2011, after roughly five months of availability. The uncirculated version of the coin remains available for sale.
The US Mint had announced a maximum mintage of 15,000 coins for this issue. However, based on demand forecasts, the US Mint only struck 13,000 across proof and uncirculated versions before the close of the year.
According to the most recent weekly sales report, the James Buchanan’s Liberty Gold Coin had recorded sales of 7,317 proof and 4,461 uncirculated coins, making a total of 11,778.
Sold Out Link!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>They are 2007 issues by the mint.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping. >>
I am wondering where these came from. Seems I recall calling the Mint after they cancelled the subscription and asked about the boxes and they said they didn't have them. Did any one see them selling on the Mint web site? >>
I forgot to mention I bought a proof one off the mint's web site way back when. That's how I have the price for that one, but not the Unc.
<< <i>Sold Out Link!!! >>
They went dark on Monday, goldbully.
<< <i>
<< <i>Sold Out Link!!! >>
They went dark on Monday, goldbully. >>
What's not to like!!!
which isn't necessarily a bad thing to have them talking since it is our gov't. the big fear is that misinformation or incomplete info gets out and adversely affects something. So, one must always take insider info with a grain of salt and a large helping of discretion.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck
3000 uncs were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor.
Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold eagles from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008
.86
.90
.64
.82
2007
.86
.91
.92
.92
2006
.85
.87
.86
.85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440
Normal scrap gives us with 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125
Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906
Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson
7,684 Jackson
6,807 Van Buren
5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now.
<< <i>I was wondering the same thing. The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck
3000 unc were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor.
Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008
.86
.90
.64
.82
2007
.86
.91
.92
.92
2006
.85
.87
.86
.85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440
Normal scrap gives us assuming 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125
Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906
Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,700
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson
7,684 Jackson
6,807 Van Buren
5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now. >>
Can we be assured that the 13000 struck included the scrap because if you apply your 0.875 scrap rate to 15000 you get about 13000. Isn't it possible that the insider who reported 13000 was reporting saleable coins.
I think you were the same guy that needed to suggest that a 5% scrap rate was high with zero data to base that on.
<< <i>I was told planchets struck. They can not come up with exactly 15,000 or 13,000 finished coins that pass QC without making extra and then melting some good coins. We are not "assured" of anything in life other than we will die. We were not assured that these coins were struct to anticipated demand. We were not assured that they would only be struck once. We were not assured that they would not be anything but thats what the Mints habits, employees and the data indicated. Now I would suggest to those that need to be "assured" that they sell all their coins and stock and anything else that they have and go buy T BILLS. >>
Can we be assured that T-BILLS are ok?
These days, I think I like coins better.
This is what I responded to-a statement made by 7/8...
"We know it was short struck, we know waste rates could be at least 5% and maybe as high as 15-20%"
I would not have thought 5% was high but the other range (15-20%) seemed excessive to me. I see you have the statistics but that was not known to me at the time. Even so, most of your numbers look closer to 10-12%.
<< <i>I was wondering the same thing. The number of combined coins struck was 13,000 so they are correct.
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck
3000 unc were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor.
Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008
.86
.90
.64
.82
2007
.86
.91
.92
.92
2006
.85
.87
.86
.85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440
Normal scrap gives us assuming 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125
Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906
Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson
7,684 Jackson
6,807 Van Buren
5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and it likely outcomes. But it does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now. >>
Applying the same logic to the MS Buchanan's, what are the scrap rates for them and where could they possibly end up, even considering a maximum mintage of 6,500 coins? I'm still holding out for them, too.
IMO, thats where you need to be.
<< <i>Trade those MS Buchs for Proofs........
IMO, thats where you need to be. >>
Got some Buch Proofs graded PCGS FS PR70. Maybe I will trade the MS for more when the fog lifts a little bit.
Do you have any estimate of the potential appreciation on the Proofs, say in the next year to two years?
<< <i>Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008
.86
.90
.64
.82
2007
.86
.91
.92
.92
2006
.85
.87
.86
.85
>>
I am not sure what numbers were used to come up with these, but since no First Spouse were issued in 2006 and they are only 1/2 ounce these must also be from other coins. It would seem the scrap rates in this sequence is very low, but from the numbers I see it is also likely that scrap rates of 40% of total coins struck could be destroyed, so I can't see how they strike 7000 and have any more than 5250 proofs or so. Of coarse that makes no sense as sales went over 7000 so something is not adding up.
From the scrap rates on the 2008 gold buffalo proofs we had 1 oz 9% bad, 1/2 oz 41% bad, 1/4 oz 41% bad, and 1/10 oz 24% bad.
These Buch seem closest to the proof buffalo coins perhaps so this is why I am using those. The 1/2 oz was 41% bad so 7000 struck minus 41% is only 4130 coins. We would all agree that is impossible for a final for the buch proof.
So the mint must have struck more than 7000 to get to whatever they sold, unless they have perfected striking these which I seriously doubt, especially considering the bad quality of the early strikes, or they decided all strikes were good and the press operator was blind.
Raw data 2008 proof buffalo struck
1 oz. Proof: 20,580
½ oz. Proof: 20,602
¼ oz. Proof: 22,060
1/10 oz proof : 24,725
Final mintages
1 oz. Proof: 18,863
½ oz. Proof: 12,169
¼ oz. Proof: 13,125
1/10 oz proof : 18,884
So what is the point if any? The planchets struck are the planchets struck and we have hard data on them. The only question left for those who don’t just want to be bull headed is what is the scrap rate? The point is the real numbers could produce a very serious revision in the proof Buck numbers because any of the likely loss rates puts a 6000 or less final into the realm of likely.
Large downward revisions in the weekly sales report almost always show up when the coins sales are violent at some point. Even more so when violent sales turn into uncertainty. The guys with big credit card orders cancel the orders, those that just got in a big shipment return. Any Quality issue increases the double count too because they get returned and then sold again in most cases. All these issues showed up in spades and thus they are perfect candidates for a big drop.
I am writing to those who had ears and bought some. Good for you guys.
Eric
Right now the prices of the other three Liberty subset coins are similar for the uncirculated and proof versions. The Jeffersons are basically bullion (and will likely remain that way). The Jackson and Van Buren carry nearly identical premiums, which reflect the relative mintages and current popularity of the two finishes.
The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset.
This demand shift is not likely to be large, but I suspect it will be significant enough to keep the price of the proof Buchanan lower than it would have been with fewer uncircs in the marketplace.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
just pointing out that 2009 had 5 first spouses, and they started in 2007.
<< <i>The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset. >>
I used to "buy" this thought process.
Until you see all the spill over from the Unc Jackie to the Proof Jackie. Oops. Not exactly. Nowhere near the unc pricing for years.
I dont think so.
<< <i>Being optimistic, will the scarce PF Buck carry even more of a premium over gold's bullion price if gold keeps going up ? >>
But neither will 2008-W Buffalo's............
3000-3500 first run uncs were struck
3000 uncs were struck on second run.
Thats 6500-7000 proof planchets struck with some unkown scrap factor.
Now lets look at the scrap factors for proof gold eagles from 2006, 2007 and 2008 for all 4 denominations to see where we COULD end up.
2008
.86
.90
.64
.82
2007
.86
.91
.92
.92
2006
.85
.87
.86
.85
Average with the .64 anomoly thrown out is .875 long term average scrap rate for proof gold. The best rate they had over 12 issues was .92.
SO we COULD see
HIGH= 7000x .92=6,440
Normal scrap gives us with 7,000 max planchets =7000x.875= 6,125
Average Planchet and normal scrap is 6750x.875 = 5,906
Normal scrap and the low bound of 6500 planchets = 6500x.875 = 5,688
High scrap and low bound 6500 planchets= 6500x.85=5,525
We know that this proof coin had quality problems early on so 12.5% scrap rate is suspect. Given the spread .85 is likely.
So if you are into average probable outcomes don’t be shocked to see a mintage chart that looks like this for the Proof Gold Liberty short set.
19,815 Jefferson
7,684 Jackson
6,807 Van Buren
5,906 Buchanan
This is not a prediction just a statement of known data and its likely outcomes. But its does show clearly why guys like 7/8 have been warning us about a massive drop when the real numbers come out about 10 months from now.
*****************************************
Applying the same logic to the MS Buchanan's, what are the scrap rates for them and where could they possibly end up, even considering a maximum mintage of 6,500 coins? I'm still holding out for them, too.
Answer: You have almost no hope of having the UNC buck come in less than 5,000 uncs final mintage by the time they close in the early fall of this year and the report comes out around the first of next year. Third place in a 4 coin set is not so hot. Change horses while its inexpensive to do so. I have gold unc bucks to cover my personal set needs and thats it. My ratio is 8 to 1 proof bucks vs unc bucks. 4 to 1 van buren uncs to any other FS unc.
<< <i>
<< <i>The Buchanan is an anomaly, as the uncirculated mintage is likely to approach the proof mintage when all is said and done. As the price of the proof increases due to its probable key status, some of the demand for the proof Buchanan will shift to the uncirculated version. This shift will come from non-set collectors who just want the least expensive example of the design, and from new Liberty subset collectors who perceive that the uncirculated subset is more affordable than the proof subset. >>
I used to "buy" this thought process.
Until you see all the spill over from the Unc Jackie to the Proof Jackie. Oops. Not exactly. Nowhere near the unc pricing for years.
I dont think so. >>
There are 4.65 Jackie Robinson gold proofs for every uncirculated specimen, so no surprise that the proof is *way* cheaper. But the price gap between the unc. and the proof has declined by about $1,000 during the past 3 years.
Any casual collector who wants a gold Jackie will almost certainly buy the proof. If the prices were reversed, that same collector would almost certainly buy the uncirculated.
The "substitution effect" is alive and well.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>The "substitution effect" is alive and well. >>
So says you. Not me.
There is no "substitution effect" severe enough within the Jackies to deteriorate the Unc pricing in ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.
I believe your point was that if the Proof Buch saw a number inline with the Uncs, but at a low enough number for the Proof where the premium went sky high, collectors would opt for the Unc.
Your point in theory sounds fine, but in practice doesnt happen often.
The Proof and Unc buyers have very different tastes.
After running many calculations on my supercomputer I will stick MY neck out and predict 6,043 on the PF Buchs!
Now .. lets see who can guess the closest within 3 coins .. you are only allowed one guess and only one guess!
Let the games begin >>>>>> ???
of all time! Render to Caesar's what is
Caesars and give to God what is God's.
BTW anybody can go back and reads this thread to see what the predictions were, some thought a sellout in a day or week at most, and while it wouldn't have surprise me if it happened it didn't, just like the prediction that they would strike no more coins but they did.
How quickly we forget. Like I said earlier, part of the fun of this message boards is making predictions and seeing who comes true. At least fess up to what you predict and not pretend amnesia.
I really don't know what to make of the proof buchs, I could see a range from 7000 all the way down to 5600 if the mint has a bad disaster with these. If the mintages are down at 5900 then these could be as good as the VB unc coins. If it is closer to 6600 or higher then not so much according to my math. My hunch is the 13,000 figure is the target amount of coins, so they struck as many as needed to get to that.
Anyway we won't know for a year so spinning wheels on this is all we are doing.
PS Interesting how nobody has the actual amount of coins struck for all the spouse coins, that is what we need. Anyway at least we all seem to put our money where our mouths are, and that is what counts in the end. I have way too much in coins right now but the mint keeps dishing out the treats.
<< <i>
<< <i>The "substitution effect" is alive and well. >>
So says you. Not me.
There is no "substitution effect" severe enough within the Jackies to deteriorate the Unc pricing in ANY MEANINGFUL WAY.
I believe your point was that if the Proof Buch saw a number inline with the Uncs, but at a low enough number for the Proof where the premium went sky high, collectors would opt for the Unc.
Your point in theory sounds fine, but in practice doesnt happen often.
The Proof and Unc buyers have very different tastes. >>
The substitution effect occurs at the margin. If the price of a proof Buchanan rises to 3x the price of the uncirculated, a certain number of collectors who would otherwise buy the proof will buy the uncirculated instead. This includes collectors of modest means, whose desire to economize outweighs their desire to obtain a proof. There may not be many collectors who fit this description, but given the low absolute mintages of the Buchanans, it would take only a relative handful of collectors acting in this manner to affect the price of both finishes.
For an extreme example of the substitution effect, check out the price of the 1895 proof Morgan dollar. It is many times the price of other proof Morgans with similar mintages. This price disparity is entirely due to additional demand from collectors of circulation strike Morgans, "substituting" the proof for the unobtainable uncirculated specimen.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
While the United States Mint's platinum American Eagle bullion coin program has not been discontinued, Mint officials are still assessing the program's future.
<< <i>Is the offical non USM lowest sales/mintage award of all four Liberty Proofs presented to the 2010 Buchanan Proof Spousal $10 Gold coin ?? >>
that won't officially be handed out until later, but bets are on the Buch to be slightly under the VB. (for the proofs. the unc. are a different story)
<< <i>They are 2007 issues by the mint.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I guess now I'm going to have to fight you guys to get them.
(I was hoping for a complete set to go with my hopefully complete set. I know some years have 5 coins. I'd just insert 4 and keep 1 separate or maybe buy an extra for the second wives club) >>
Well, if only I could find where I put that box with the boxes.
Product Name Quantity Price
(each) Total Item Status Cancel
FIRST SPOUSE 4 COIN CASE (UNC) 50 $18.95 $947.50
Product Name Quantity Price
(each) Total Item Status Cancel
FIRST SPOUSE 4 COIN CASE (UNC) 50 $18.95 $947.50
What are you saying. Please be clear.
Eric
Alas, the reason I hadn't seen them is my remaining Unc boxes were ruined in a flood, sorry guys
Thanks
Eric
I may pass on one and one is all I want; yet, it will be difficult to choose.....
Miles