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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I appreciate all of the insight that Eric Jordan has shared with us these several months concerning the USM's minting and marketing of the 2010 PF Buck coins. Many thanks from Texas. >>




    Yes, but if he was real good he would tell us exactly how many they minted.image
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • One PCGS First Strike PF70 on Ebay now for around $1450 BIN. One PCGS First Strike PF70 sold on Ebay 2/5/11 for $1349. That is a jump over recent prices of $200-300. Seller may wish he'd waited a while, or maybe gettin' while the gettin's good.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>the issue with the MS -----is the early backorder and restrike of quantities.
    IMO, looking like 6000-6500 on the MS. >>


    So the Van Buren will have the overall lowest total number of coins struck.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • This may seem less than smart but I ordered a PF Buck this morning. I appreciate the lower USM selling price. They may go black soon.....
    Specialized Investments
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>This may seem less than smart but I ordered a PF Buck this morning. I appreciate the lower USM selling price. They may go black soon..... >>



    I hope ya get it and they aren't sold out already.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • JaLPJaLP Posts: 199 ✭✭✭
    I hope he gets one and NOW they are sold out!


  • << <i>Raufus,

    Just go buy one on the after market. Go buy a NGC PR70 Buck somewhere for about $1000 and know you will have it and that it will be nice. All they have left are someones rejects and you may not get that. And its not like you save that much when they are about 830 plus freight anyway.


    Eric >>



    Is this typical with most runs at the Mint? If you buy toward the end of the offering, are you typically just buying the coins someone else returned?
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • I know Modern Coin Mart had some for about $1,000 (NGC PR70)


  • << <i>

    << <i>Raufus,

    Just go buy one on the after market. Go buy a NGC PR70 Buck somewhere for about $1000 and know you will have it and that it will be nice. All they have left are someones rejects and you may not get that. And its not like you save that much when they are about 830 plus freight anyway.


    Eric >>



    Is this typical with most runs at the Mint? If you buy toward the end of the offering, are you typically just buying the coins someone else returned? >>



    You don't think you've ever purchased someones returns at the department store?

    Buyers remorse, didn't like it, got a scratch, etc.


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Raufus,

    Just go buy one on the after market. Go buy a NGC PR70 Buck somewhere for about $1000 and know you will have it and that it will be nice. All they have left are someones rejects and you may not get that. And its not like you save that much when they are about 830 plus freight anyway.


    Eric >>



    Is this typical with most runs at the Mint? If you buy toward the end of the offering, are you typically just buying the coins someone else returned? >>



    You don't think you've ever purchased someones returns at the department store?

    Buyers remorse, didn't like it, got a scratch, etc. >>



    I just wanted to clarify what the Mint practices were--I wasn't necessarily complaining. All the more reason to buy directly from the Mint at the beginning of a run.
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • Guys its game over......

    The proof and mint state bucks had 13,000 planchets struck. The proof buck was struck to anticipated demand once. The unc was struck twice. The proof buck had about 7,000 planchets struck. The scrap rate for proof gold is nomally 5% or more on a good run. The proof buck is going to be king of the proof gold liberty subset and by extension the proof first hags because the demand for the 4 coin set is much greater than that of the series as a whole. This was demonstrated clearly by a pole on this forum about 6 months ago.

    The liberty gold set is closed and we know the kings. The rest of the hags are an open mostly ugly set of great cost. Hold onto the proof gold bucks that you have the best you can. We have had an excellent run over the last 5 years but the structure in the sets going forward are not going to be as full of opportunity as they have been. Proof bucks and MS Julia were the super coins of 2010. The market is slow as is normal to catch on to the obvious. Go look again at the proof and mint state commemorative price vs mintage behavior in our book. The low mintage good looking coins that the public like are going to be where the heat is.


    Eric


    PS: The mint does not have any coins and anything that comes out of mint inventory is a return. Period.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    the mint kiosks will have inventory they can pull to sell in Indy.

    those may or may not be returns.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MilesWaitsMilesWaits Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for the update Eric!

    I see where ALL of the 2010 AGE's are Sold Out, but nothing concrete on the Proof Buc as of yet.

    When it shows as "No Longer Available", let the celebration begin and the flipping ensue.

    Miles
    Now riding the swell in PM's and surf.


  • << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Raufus,

    Just go buy one on the after market. Go buy a NGC PR70 Buck somewhere for about $1000 and know you will have it and that it will be nice. All they have left are someones rejects and you may not get that. And its not like you save that much when they are about 830 plus freight anyway.


    Eric >>



    Is this typical with most runs at the Mint? If you buy toward the end of the offering, are you typically just buying the coins someone else returned? >>



    You don't think you've ever purchased someones returns at the department store?

    Buyers remorse, didn't like it, got a scratch, etc. >>



    I just wanted to clarify what the Mint practices were--I wasn't necessarily complaining. All the more reason to buy directly from the Mint at the beginning of a run. >>



    I didn't take it that way, and I apologize for the blunt sound of my post. I was aiming it as a commentary at the practices of most retail sellers. They will find a way to get rid of their stock. The mint figures they'll get a taker eventually.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Would a "sold out" for the Buch's create a run on the Mary Todd Lincolns?

    What about for the others that are currently on sale?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    Go look again at the proof and mint state commemorative price vs mintage behavior in or book. The good looking coins that the public like are going to be where the heat is.

    Eric



    I don't know about good looking. No offense to Jackie fans but that coin aint that good looking.


    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I wonder about how many single issues of these would be sought individually, as well as the number of people collecting them individually.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions


  • << <i>Go look again at the proof and mint state commemorative price vs mintage behavior in or book. The good looking coins that the public like are going to be where the heat is.

    Eric



    I don't know about good looking. No offense to Jackie fans but that coin aint that good looking. >>




    Then go forward and buy all the 3300-3600 ms ugly first hags you can find and see how you do.

    Eric
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,864 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "The proof buck is going to be king of the proof gold liberty subset and by extension the proof first hags because the demand for the 4 coin set is much greater than that of the series as a whole. This was demonstrated clearly by a pole on this forum about 6 months ago."

    I love Eric, but... spoken like a true "promoter" (and this is not an attack on Eric's motives which I have no doubt are "pure"). Little chance this will happen anytime in the next couple years IMHO, but I guess anything is possible in 10 or 25 or 50 years.

    Wondercoin
    image
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,982 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Proof-69s are still reasonable . . .

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Go look again at the proof and mint state commemorative price vs mintage behavior in or book. The good looking coins that the public like are going to be where the heat is.

    Eric



    I don't know about good looking. No offense to Jackie fans but that coin aint that good looking. >>




    Then go forward and buy all the 3300-3600 ms ugly first hags you can find and see how you do.

    Eric >>




    I have and so far so good. I do think patience will eventually pay off. In the mean time I will have fun.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.


  • << <i>Guys its game over......

    The proof and mint state bucks had 13,000 planchets struck. The proof buck was struck to aniticipated demand once. The unc was struck twice. The proof buck had about 7,000 planchets struck. The scrap rate for proof gold is nomally 5% or more on a good run. The proof buck is going to be king of the proof gold liberty subset and by extension the proof first hags because the demand for the 4 coin set is much greater than that of the series as a whole. This was demonstrated clearly by a pole on this forum about 6 months ago.

    The liberty gold set is closed and we know the kings. The rest of the hags are an open mostly ugly set of great cost. Hold onto the proof gold bucks that you have the best you can. We have had an excellent run over the last 5 years but the stuture in the sets going forward are not going to be as full of oportunity as they have been. Proof bucks and ms julia were the super coins of 2010. The market is slow as is normal to catch on to the obvious. Go look again at the proof and mint state commemorative price vs mintage behavior in or book. The good looking coins that the public like are going to be where the heat is.


    Eric


    PS: The mint does not have any coins and anything that comes out of mint inventory is a return. Period. >>



    Do you think that the coins shipped the same day they wet red are returns also Eric? My order was placed two weeks prior to going red and they shipped the same day they went red.
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,116 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It is my opinion that the coins they have been shipping for quite a while have been returns. The reason I write this is that when these first went on sale I recall a number of folks commenting upon the poor quality of the proof coins they were receiving and that the coins were going to be returned. If they truly were returned then they might have been placed aside for use as the last sales. Just a guess, but it could make sense.
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    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    I have purchased gold coins from the mint the day they went backorder in the past and received flawless coins so you just have to wait to see what you get. You also have a 5 day return policy but I doubt you want to use it if this is really a sell-out.

    BTW the VB gold unc seem to be selling for more than the VB proof, and that was before this backorder.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    I wouldn't underestimate the lowest mintage uglies. image
  • I just realized that they shipped my coins in three different boxes, three different carriers. That is kind of weird, normally I get one box with all the coins.


  • << <i>It is my opinion that the coins they have been shipping for quite a while have been returns. The reason I write this is that when these first went on sale I recall a number of folks commenting upon the poor quality of the proof coins they were receiving and that the coins were going to be returned. If they truly were returned then they might have been placed aside for use as the last sales. Just a guess, but it could make sense. >>



    I agree. The Buchs are running on fumes at this point, meaning the Mint is shipping the returns as they come in. That would explain the backorder pushbacks we've seen, as the rate of demand has finally overcome the return rate.
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin


  • << <i>I have purchased gold coins from the mint the day they went backorder in the past and received flawless coins so you just have to wait to see what you get. You also have a 5 day return policy but I doubt you want to use it if this is really a sell-out.

    BTW the VB gold unc seem to be selling for more than the VB proof, and that was before this backorder. >>





    Obviously the VB unc is going to be a better coin than the Buck proof. 3800 is a good number in the 4 coin liberty set. I am not suggesting that the proof buck is going to be better than say unc Julia or unc VB. I am saying they are likely one of if not the strongest proof.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,864 ✭✭✭✭✭
    "I am saying they are likely one of if not the strongest proof."

    That more mild opinion of the proof Buck I can live with, as compared to the previous view. It should be a good proof coin, but, IMHO, there will be better proofs in the series and many better MS coins including a number of "ugly" hags.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭



    << <i>That more mild opinion of the proof Buck I can live with, as compared to the previous view. >>




    We may all be surprised when we see the waste rate, which could catapult the proof buck into super coin status of the Liberty subset.

    We know it was short struck, we know waste rates could be at least 5% and maybe as high as 15-20%, we know the disappointment of the early purchasers and loads of returns because of "frost breaks", my opinion is quality was not very good on this one.

    With a potential waste rate on the high end, Eric's opinion of no more than 7000 struck could translate into "less than 6,000", possibly as low as 5600 FINAL.

    Guys, that will not be just good. It will be great.

    I will take less than 6800 ANY DAY.



  • Mitch,

    What you are saying is the Liberty subset does not have significantly higher demand than the generic issues. If thats true then what you say is correct.

    If on the other hand there are in fact twice as many collectors of the Liberty sets than there are for the generics then long term a 6,500 mintage liberty proof will outperform a say 5,000-5500 mintage generic proof and by extension a 3800 mintage unc VB will outperform a 3300 mintage unc generic. Maybe the 3300-3600 mintage uncs and the 5000-5500 mintage proof issues will get promoted and move first but promotions are hard to predict because half the time they are not rational. I am not saying that a coin like Julia will not end up dominant long term.

    I collect the liberty sets in unc and proof and most of the people that I know who collect these coins thats their focus. Maybe there are almost as many full set collectors out there to put price pressure on all of them so the generic keys get hit hardest. We shall see....... I think the first hags will have a price structure that looks like the old & new commems and the prices are going to be all over the place. IMHO, long term its the coins with public appeal AND low mintages that are going to perform the best.
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The fact that the sales were up over Pierce shows there is collector demand for the Liberty coins.
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i> It should be a good proof coin, but, IMHO, there will be better proofs in the series and many better MS coins including a number of "ugly" hags. >>



    The series is a collection of ugly coins, except for the Liberty subset.

    Not only ugly, but not even remotely interesting.

    Ugly coins do not have many fans and followers. True, they can be scarce/rare, but there are many scarce/rare coins that aren't worth much at all and dont have any potential.

    Stick with popular ones.

    Proof Buck is a nice design, arguably one of the top 2 Liberty subset designs. That combined with the lowest proof mintage for the Liberty subset will propel it upwards in price.

  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    We know it was short struck, we know waste rates could be at least 5% and maybe as high as 15-20%


    How can you justify those high waste rates? I would think someone would get fired over that kind performance.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • The west point mint had scrap ratesas high as 55% in 2008 with an average scrap rate on special issues of about 20%.

    5% is a low estimate. 5% is a good number because just a hair line in the field will get the coin in the scrap pile.

    Eric
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i> I would think someone would get fired over that kind performance. >>



    Remember we ARE talking about Gov't employees image
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Maybe the 3300-3600 mintage uncs and the 5000-5500 mintage proof issues will get promoted and move first but promotions are hard to predict because half the time they are not rational. I am not saying that a coin like Julia will not end up dominant long term. >>



    With one exception, a promotion needs a "theme", a short-set, a subset, etc to be "pitched" to collectors........

    The Liberty subset IS promotable. A short set, great designs that speak to classic collectors as well, and a theme (Popular designs of Liberty).........

    Stand alone ugly haags are not promotable.

    Unless we are pitching the "Ugliest Haags" subset. I dont think that would gather much steam.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The west point mint had scrap ratesas high as 55% in 2008 with an average scrap rate on special issues of about 20%.

    5% is a low estimate. 5% is a good number because just a hair line in the field will get the coin in the scrap pile.

    Eric >>




    I am surprised it was that high. I suppose if they have a good return policy with the planchet provider then it is not too bad on the cost. Think of how many interesting errors are just remelted.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    Unless we are pitching the "Ugliest Haags" subset. I dont think that would gather much steam. >>




    I don't suppose N.O.W. has that many members these days.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    hahaha
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    I would be interested in hearing the opinions about the popularity of the proof liberty subset versus the unc. over the long haul. One has a higher collector base and one has lower mintages. Which one "wins out".
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • HIGHLOWLEAVESHIGHLOWLEAVES Posts: 783 ✭✭✭
    Proof Bucks SOLD OUT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Specialized Investments
  • WOW guess that shows us that some of the mint employees know what's going on and we should listen when they speek. That might be a shock to some but I have found them dependable over and over again.

    Eric
  • I am a collector of the Liberty subset and I want and have both proof and mint state, a total of eight coins.



    Plus a few extras image
  • ronsrons Posts: 338 ✭✭


    << <i>I am a collector of the Liberty subset and I want and have both proof and mint state, a total of eight coins.



    Plus a few extras image >>



    Ditto for me image
    "When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
  • It is finally a great new to hear. Thanks Eric!

    I have a few proof Buck, but no proof VB nor Jackson.
    Since Proof Buck will be the lowest in the Proof Liberty Subset, I hope I can trade some of my Buck proof for VB or Jackson to complete my proof set. image
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • Well I received my coins today and they definitely look like returns. Some of them will be lucky to get a PR69 so what do you think, keep them or return them?
  • goldman86goldman86 Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    No surprise here.

    When the bulk salesperson calls you to tell you they can't fill your order, that is a pretty good indicator that there are non left...

    Hehe
    The Stealth Ninja
  • gyromacgyromac Posts: 213 ✭✭


    << <i> Maybe there are almost as many full set collectors out there to put price pressure on all of them so the generic keys get hit hardest. We shall see....... I think the first hags will have a price structure that looks like the old & new commems and the prices are going to be all over the place. IMHO, long term its the coins with public appeal AND low mintages that are going to perform the best. >>



    imho...

    the only way to collect these are in FS MS70/PR70 holders....they are too easily acquired in raw form and the premium over "spot" in a 70 holder within the first 3-5 months is not that much.....you just get more bang for your investment via the 70 route

    trying to figure out the ultimate key is pointless at this time (just shy of halfway through the program) but i doubt that Julia will be de-throwned as too many people watch the weekly sales now.

    let's face it the USM will not short strike any spouse going forward...just think of the lawsuit from the Estate of (fill in the blank Spouse) if the USM does not give them the full 1 year availability for sales....lastly a 3500 struck coin is in the middle of the pack of the "Ugly" girls and not even a "semi-key"..... keys have to be 3100-3200 and that i don't think is going to happen....

    gyros
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 32,755 ✭✭✭✭✭
    do they short strike Lincoln, too?

    Pierce?


    ===============


    1100
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions

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