<< <i>Doesn't anyone here want to buy Mary Todd Lincoln just out of historical interest? Just wondering. It seems as if ALL of the discussion around these pertains to speculation. Aside from the Liberty set, does anyone like these as coins? I do own a couple, but have to say I would easily part with them, even if they became very valuable. I don't feel that way about my buffs and plats. >>
For me it was just the price of the coin and my personal financial position right now. Hope I can get one later.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Doesn't anyone here want to buy Mary Todd Lincoln just out of historical interest? Just wondering. It seems as if ALL of the discussion around these pertains to speculation. Aside from the Liberty set, does anyone like these as coins? I do own a couple, but have to say I would easily part with them, even if they became very valuable. I don't feel that way about my buffs and plats. >>
My only real interest is in the Liberty subset. I like some of the others--namely the Tylers (and especially JT).
Looking to the future, I have an interest in Eleanor R. and Jackie K and that's perhaps it if you don't count chasing low-mintage coins.
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Now lets look at the unc Liberty structure now that we have looked at the generics:
19,823.... 2007 Jefferson-Liberty 5,000+*...2010 Buchanan-Liberty - struck at least 6,000 uncs and have about 7 months to unload them. 4,609...... 2008 Jackson-Liberty 3,826...... 2008 Van Buren-Liberty
Thats a short closed affordable set with good looks and a key and semi key. Hopefully the unc buck will sell out and add to the short series total population.
Thats more or less what we like to see in mintage structures for cohesive series.
The Bucks might end up being winners, but all this speculation and they are still not moving at the bay. Are there enough collectors interested in the coin?
One thing to keep in mind is that the PR Buchs had been scheduled to be offered through August, 2011 and this original schedule might be influencing how folks value the coins at the moment. That is, many might think there are more PR Buchs coming when in reality there aren't any more coins. I would imagine not everyone buying and selling these on ebay is following them as closely as many on the boards appear to be following the coins so that the news of a sell out might not have taken root everywhere in the market.
RobertS these coins were hoarded by speculators and the sales numbers ended up higher than the Van Buren finals. The buch finals may and should come in lower but as of today these are not officially the new keys until it is published, which will take a long time to happen.
Remember the 2008 w unc plats?
It shouldn't take as long with these but looking at the VB proof it isn't exactly a hot item right now.
<< <i>The Bucks might end up being winners, but all this speculation and they are still not moving at the bay. Are there enough collectors interested in the coin? >>
Buchanan proofs on ebay are certainly in a different place today than they were a week ago.
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I still have to ask... if this is not a decisive "key", like more than 500 lower mintage than the Van Buren, then does it really display characteristics of a key in the marketplace?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>RobertS these coins were hoarded by speculators and the sales numbers ended up higher than the Van Buren finals. The buch finals may and should come in lower but as of today these are not officially the new keys until it is published, which will take a long time to happen.
Remember the 2008 w unc plats?
It shouldn't take as long with these but looking at the VB proof it isn't exactly a hot item right now. >>
Really unless next weeks mint report shows more than 7317, then the Buchanan PR is the official new key to the subset as far as the market is concerned. The market is responding to final mint sales reports, and not 'final final' audited numbers. Outside of various internet echo chambers and eric's book, final finals go unrecognized for now. There are spouses that have been off sale for four years now and the mint's last sales reports are still (again, for now) the ones cited virtually everywhere.
"then the Buchanan PR is the official new key to the subset"
IMHO, there is only one "key" to the -8- coin Liberty subset and that is the Van Buren MS. If, and when, a key develops for the proof liberties as a "stand-alone" set, the Buchanan may be it, but even today that current" key proof liberty coin (Van Buren) often trades at less than many "ugly hags" do. I bought another one this morning for less money than I am paying for a number of "ugly hag" coins. Does anyone know or even care what the 2 or 3 lowest mintage modern proof gold commems are? Most do not of the top of their heads, because they have little value above melt even today (as the proof gold commem set never took off as a "stand-alone" series and the low mintage MS coins are the coins in the spotlight after all these years). Food for thought.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I think the only one that can make it official is the US Mint by publishing the numbers, there have been coins in the past that have had final numbers higher than the reported sales. I doubt that happens here but the people hoarding these know what they are doing.
BTW as far as the plat w unc coins go, the market appears to be going by the final numbers and not sales reports. I agree with you the sales reports are a factor, but it is probably less than we think.
<< <i>"then the Buchanan PR is the official new key to the subset"
IMHO, there is only one "key" to the -8- coin Liberty subset and that is the Van Buren MS. If, and when, a key develops for the proof liberties as a "stand-alone" set, the Buchanan may be it, but even today that current" key proof liberty coin (Van Buren) often trades at less than many "ugly hags" do. I bought another one this morning for less money than I am paying for a number of "ugly hag" coins. Does anyone know or even care what the 2 or 3 lowest mintage modern proof gold commems are? Most do not of the top of their heads, because they have little value above melt even today (as the proof gold commem set never took off as a "stand-alone" series and the low mintage MS coins are the coins in the spotlight after all these years). Food for thought.
Wondercoin >>
Good points about modern gold commems but I think the difference w/ proof liberty spouses is that they are actually attractive (obverse anyway) and in some small way represent a 2nd shot at affordable classic proof gold.
Does anyone know or even care what the 2 or 3 lowest mintage modern proof gold commems are? Most do not of the top of their heads, because they have little value above melt even today (as the proof gold commem set never took off as a "stand-alone" series and the low mintage MS coins are the coins in the spotlight after all these years). Food for thought.
Wondercoin >>
Just a quick check in the Red book it looked like 21,772 was about the lowest, the Smithsonian, and it did carry about twice the value of the high mintage ones. I don't know what the real world says about it though. The proofs were hardly ever minted in limited quantities.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>Coinsponge: Close to melt on that Smithsonian (low mintage) proof gold?
ebay # 180610281359
Wondercoin >>
Even so, you have to wonder if 21k is really low mintage compared to the collector base in these. If these were 6 or 7 thousand mintage what would they be going for?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
When the dust settles, generally the Buchanan proof, graded or not, will bring more than the Van Buren of the same situation. I expect the Proof VB's to maybe even stagnate for a while until the public catches up with what is going on. Prices increases for the Jackson, VB and Buch proof will eventually rise in synch with one another.
Proof Buchs have been quite scarce on Ebay as of late, too, so holders may be playing the waiting game. They need to catch fire.
The gold $5 gold commems run about 4 times the mintage of the uncs for the lead coins. When proof and mint state are closer to each other they behave similarly. For example the $25 2008 proof buff with its 13,000 mintage and the 2008w $25 unc buff are only out about by a factor of 1.3. 2.0 factor proof/unc coins have also preformed fine. ($50pr and unc 08w buffs, 2008w and 08pr plats etc) But when you get out at 4 times you are in trouble. We are looking at proof buck/ unc VB ratio of about 1.6 to 1.8.
The MS vanburen will be the king. The proof Buck will do just fine and we had the chance to pick them up for mint issue before they "sold out 7 months early"! Good for us all.
<< <i>Coinsponge: Close to melt on that Smithsonian (low mintage) proof gold?
ebay # 180610281359
Wondercoin >>
Not to argue over the little stuff too much, but that PR Smithy did have 21,000 made and was not part of a multiple year series set. Plus, it just isn't that exciting of a coin.
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Bummer. I kinda split my purchases on the Buchanan between the MS's and Proofs. >>
Me too on the bummer. I got a bunch of the Unc VB's and sent them in for grading. PCGS gave me all 69's. That kind of ticked me off since they looked good to me so I sold most of them and bought a 70 on fleebay. I guess I really can't complain to much but 4 or 5 ms-70's would have been nice.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Listen 21,000 is not high at all for a proof modern coin that people want ... just look at 30,000 for the 95w silver eagle. So, as usual, it all boils down to DEMAND.
If demand for PROOF Liberty low mintage coins is there, at least 3/4 of these should do well. I just can not go on a limb calling ANY proof Liberty the "key" to the series. I think we all agree VB MS is the "key" followed by the Jackson MS.
At $2,000/oz.+ gold one day (hypothetically), the spouse run in MS and proof (a single set) would be approaching nearly $100,000 MELT VALUE. Of course, the "ugly hag" run is not for everybody. But, as I mentioned to Danny the other day (when we were doing some "horse trading" on the phone), I do have some collector interest in the entire series run. Obviously, if a collector / investor / dealer / speculator wanted to try to assemble a dozen complete sets, he might end up with $1,000,000.00 melt value on these coins assuming the hypothetical $2,000+/oz gold level!! Not to mention, 8 great Liberty subset coins (times 12) out of that group!!
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Has anyone recieved or had their cancel box disappear concerning their PF Buck orders that they ordered after the Proof was on back order by the USM? Thanks.
<< Just a quick check in the Red book it looked like 21,772 was about the lowest, the Smithsonian, and it did carry about twice the value of the high mintage ones. >>
So the most common proof First Spouse coin has a lower mintage than the scarcest proof regular gold commem. And we know that commem collectors typically order 3 to 4 times as many proofs as uncircs at time of issue.
The First Spouse series is an anomaly in this regard, with a tighter proof/unc ratio, but not due to collector demand. The 2007 issues had identical mintage limits (20,000) for the proof and uncirculated versions, and they all sold out or came close. The tighter ratios since then have been driven by "completists" who can afford to collect the entire series in both finishes, and speculators who ignore the proofs and favor the uncircs because their absolute mintages are so low.
I suspect that the popularity of proof First Spouse coins among actual collectors, compared to uncircs, is more along the lines of 3/1 or 4/1, similar to that of the regular commems. And for the same reason - the coins look much more attractive in proof. If this is the case, collector demand at series maturity will drive the prices of the proof First Spouse keys higher than the the prices of the uncirc keys, despite the proofs' higher mintage. At least that's the way I'm betting.
I think proofs are always more popular judging by the sales numbers but if you are talking about graded coins you will probably find a greater premium on the uncs.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
Get over it. The promoted set will be slanted toward PROOFS. And the Buch Proof will be the coin to own - that said wth all due respect to the VB Unc. (which in my opinion is probably the least impressive of the 4 Liberty designs)
It seems like many on here got caught without a position in the Buch Proofs....that is evident on how many well known forum members are talking down the coin. I suppose many have sizable positions in the other Proof Libs.
Talk all you want. The FINAL numbers will tell the tale. I'll sit back here and watch with a big grin on my face.
I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
Get over it. The promoted set will be slanted toward PROOFS. And the Buch Proof will be the coin to own - that said wth all due respect to the VB Unc. (which in my opinion is probably the least impressive of the 4 Liberty designs)
It seems like many on here got caught without a position in the Buch Proofs....that is evident on how many well known forum members are talking down the coin. I suppose many have sizable positions in the other Proof Libs.
Talk all you want. The FINAL numbers will tell the tale. I'll sit back here and watch with a big grin on my face. >>
Or could some just be expressing their honest opinions. I don't think anyone is talking down the Buck proof buy maybe they are trying to tamp down an overexuberance. For me, I have a good number of them so I hope they do good.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I actually like both versions. But my MS FS PCGS 70 set will be easier to complete since its only missing the Jackson-though don't wont to outlay over 2k for that coin.
I actually love both looks. I admit that the proof has the much bigger "OOH and AH" thing going for it, but I agree with Coinsponge that the uncs look more like real gold coins--especially those Liberties.
7/8 - Not sure who exactly these board members are, who are perhaps talking down this coin because they do not own enough (any)? I can tell you that I still have (10) ready for immediate trade for a variety of "ugly hags" on my want list, but no one (thus far) seems to have any of those available to trade with me. In fact, I got a call yesterday afternoon from one of the most "no nonsense" 19th century classic coin collector/dealer guys I have ever run into asking me how he can best acquire a complete run of MS/PR spouse - especially the 07-10 coins he has already missed out on. So, if anyone out there has a complete set they want to move TODAY at a fair price, it might be as easy as a PM to me... you may make a dedicated classic coin collector VERY happy (and he showed no signs of caring at all about just pursuing Liberty series coins). Which brings me to the point that my personal comments here are based upon my personal experiences, which may vary with yours.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Has anyone recieved or had their cancel box disappear concerning their PF Buck orders that they ordered after the Proof was on back order by the USM? Thanks. >>
My order: 02/03/2011 at 02:31 PM
It still has the cancel box and I highly doubt I will ever get them.
I am quite grateful to be a member of this board and especially be able to receive so much valuable informations, insights and opinions about modern coins.
Overall, I am quite satisfy with the Buchanan's purchase. It was too bad that the Mint re-strike the UNC; otherwise, the Buch UNC would have been the super coin of 2010.
The only downside is that I have about 70% UNC and 30% Proof. I have 80% UNC graded 70 but only 20% Proof graded 70. I won't complain, as I think I can still get rid of most of the UNC above mint issue price after the Mint stop selling them in Sept 2011. I plan to sell all the 69 proof and keep all the 70, as I think the Buch PR70 is a great hold for the next two years.
We will see if the the Buch MS gets ignored for 7 months til it goes off sale. I think all the collectors have what they want from this Liberty. The ones buying now may be just speculators. I will be watching the NN Mint Stats.
I've posted on and off in this thread since it started so I don't think I would be considered one of the haters of this issue. Besides, I like the issue and even purchased a number of coins from the US Mint the day they went on sale. Unfortunately, I didn't exactly pay attention to this series when the VB and Jackson coins came out so I don't have either the PR or MS versions from these coins. I write that this is unfortunate because I like the Liberty subset and think it would be cool to have and to give one set to each of my daughters (they are five-years and seven-years old) in at least PR. My hope would be at some point that I could trade one of my many extra PR69 or PR70 First Strike Buchs for a similarly graded VB or Jackson, though I may have to wait a while for the market to determine how they will value these issues relative to one another. Oddly enough, a friend of mine just two days ago asked me to sell his PR and MS Buchs (all PCGS graded First Strikes) because he needs the money for another venture, so now I am swimming in this coin.
The debate about what issue will be the key is interesting and my perspective might be somewhat different than most of the other folks in this thread because I do not specialize in the modern coinage niche. In my opinion, this series is far too aggressive for all but the most well heeled and/or dedicated collectors to build in a complete fashion from start to finish in even a single option, PR or MS, let alone being able to complete the set in both options. This would require the purchase of at least two ounces of gold per year at approximately a 30% markup to the price of gold and to do this for over a decade just to obtain a complete set in either PR or MS. I believe the numbers of folks who will collect the Liberty subset will dwarf the numbers of folks who will collect the entire series. Other colletible subsets might be those first wives whose husbands were in office in specific centuries or during declared conflicts, those whose husbands died in office or were of a certain political belief or simply coins that are aesthetically pleasing. If this series follows other modern commem series then the PR issues will generally be much better sellers than the MS issues and the PR issues will be more attractive to most buyers, which will always create addtitional demand pressure on the PR coins and this demand pressure may be enough to overcome the difference in mintage numbers with respect to price going forward.
<< <i>I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds. >>
Personally, I like the unc. a little better myself. The frosting on the proofs makes the coins look a little fake-o to me. But it really all boils down to personal opinion.
Good post, TomB.
What does the Mint do with the returns at this point?
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Does anyone know where those Mint-issued 4-coin holders that are being used by some ebay sellers for the Liberty Subset are coming from? That's a nice presentation for either the proofs or the uncs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
They probably bought a truckload when they were offered by the mint in 07. However they changed the capsules I think in 08 so some of the Liberties might not fit that 4 coin mint set packaging unless they have the capsules from 07. I am not sure about this but I thought I read that several years ago on a thread on here.
<< <i>I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds. >>
Personally, I like the unc. a little better myself. The frosting on the proofs makes the coins look a little fake-o to me. But it really all boils down to personal opinion.
Good post, TomB.
What does the Mint do with the returns at this point? >>
I prefer the Uncs better too for the same reasons. Proofs appeal to many, but these look like private mint issues.
<< <i>Does anyone know where those Mint-issued 4-coin holders that are being used by some ebay sellers for the Liberty Subset are coming from? That's a nice presentation for either the proofs or the uncs. >>
I would very much like one of those 4 coin set original mint boxes too. If anyone can find some please let me buy one or two with you.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I guess now I'm going to have to fight you guys to get them. (I was hoping for a complete set to go with my hopefully complete set. I know some years have 5 coins. I'd just insert 4 and keep 1 separate or maybe buy an extra for the second wives club)
Comments
<< <i>Doesn't anyone here want to buy Mary Todd Lincoln just out of historical interest? Just wondering. It seems as if ALL of the discussion around these pertains to speculation. Aside from the Liberty set, does anyone like these as coins? I do own a couple, but have to say I would easily part with them, even if they became very valuable. I don't feel that way about my buffs and plats. >>
For me it was just the price of the coin and my personal financial position right now. Hope I can get one later.
<< <i>Doesn't anyone here want to buy Mary Todd Lincoln just out of historical interest? Just wondering. It seems as if ALL of the discussion around these pertains to speculation. Aside from the Liberty set, does anyone like these as coins? I do own a couple, but have to say I would easily part with them, even if they became very valuable. I don't feel that way about my buffs and plats. >>
My only real interest is in the Liberty subset. I like some of the others--namely the Tylers (and especially JT).
Looking to the future, I have an interest in Eleanor R. and Jackie K and that's perhaps it if you don't count chasing low-mintage coins.
19,823.... 2007 Jefferson-Liberty
5,000+*...2010 Buchanan-Liberty - struck at least 6,000 uncs and have about 7 months to unload them.
4,609...... 2008 Jackson-Liberty
3,826...... 2008 Van Buren-Liberty
Thats a short closed affordable set with good looks and a key and semi key. Hopefully the unc buck will sell out and add to the short series total population.
Thats more or less what we like to see in mintage structures for cohesive series.
Unc Buck. Reminds me of John Candy.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
Remember the 2008 w unc plats?
It shouldn't take as long with these but looking at the VB proof it isn't exactly a hot item right now.
<< <i>The Bucks might end up being winners, but all this speculation and they are still not moving at the bay. Are there enough collectors interested in the coin? >>
Buchanan proofs on ebay are certainly in a different place today than they were a week ago.
<< <i>RobertS these coins were hoarded by speculators and the sales numbers ended up higher than the Van Buren finals. The buch finals may and should come in lower but as of today these are not officially the new keys until it is published, which will take a long time to happen.
Remember the 2008 w unc plats?
It shouldn't take as long with these but looking at the VB proof it isn't exactly a hot item right now. >>
Really unless next weeks mint report shows more than 7317, then the Buchanan PR is the official new key to the subset as far as the market is concerned. The market is responding to final mint sales reports, and not 'final final' audited numbers. Outside of various internet echo chambers and eric's book, final finals go unrecognized for now. There are spouses that have been off sale for four years now and the mint's last sales reports are still (again, for now) the ones cited virtually everywhere.
<< <i>not right now. >>
Right. Gotta let these fester for a little while.
IMHO, there is only one "key" to the -8- coin Liberty subset and that is the Van Buren MS. If, and when, a key develops for the proof liberties as a "stand-alone" set, the Buchanan may be it, but even today that current" key proof liberty coin (Van Buren) often trades at less than many "ugly hags" do. I bought another one this morning for less money than I am paying for a number of "ugly hag" coins. Does anyone know or even care what the 2 or 3 lowest mintage modern proof gold commems are? Most do not of the top of their heads, because they have little value above melt even today (as the proof gold commem set never took off as a "stand-alone" series and the low mintage MS coins are the coins in the spotlight after all these years). Food for thought.
Wondercoin
BTW as far as the plat w unc coins go, the market appears to be going by the final numbers and not sales reports. I agree with you the sales reports are a factor, but it is probably less than we think.
<< <i>"then the Buchanan PR is the official new key to the subset"
IMHO, there is only one "key" to the -8- coin Liberty subset and that is the Van Buren MS. If, and when, a key develops for the proof liberties as a "stand-alone" set, the Buchanan may be it, but even today that current" key proof liberty coin (Van Buren) often trades at less than many "ugly hags" do. I bought another one this morning for less money than I am paying for a number of "ugly hag" coins. Does anyone know or even care what the 2 or 3 lowest mintage modern proof gold commems are? Most do not of the top of their heads, because they have little value above melt even today (as the proof gold commem set never took off as a "stand-alone" series and the low mintage MS coins are the coins in the spotlight after all these years). Food for thought.
Wondercoin >>
Good points about modern gold commems but I think the difference w/ proof liberty spouses is that they are actually attractive (obverse anyway) and in some small way represent a 2nd shot at affordable classic proof gold.
PCGS
Jefferson proof total graded 2593
Jackson proof total graded...655
Van Buren total graded .......585
Buchanan proof total graded.. 1112
Wondercoin >>
Just a quick check in the Red book it looked like 21,772 was about the lowest, the Smithsonian, and it did carry about twice the value of the high mintage ones. I don't know what the real world says about it though. The proofs were hardly ever minted in limited quantities.
Box of 20
ebay # 180610281359
Wondercoin
<< <i>Coinsponge: Close to melt on that Smithsonian (low mintage) proof gold?
ebay # 180610281359
Wondercoin >>
Even so, you have to wonder if 21k is really low mintage compared to the collector base in these. If these were 6 or 7 thousand mintage what would they be going for?
Proof Buchs have been quite scarce on Ebay as of late, too, so holders may be playing the waiting game. They need to catch fire.
How the graded coins go remains to be seen.
The MS vanburen will be the king. The proof Buck will do just fine and we had the chance to pick them up for mint issue before they "sold out 7 months early"! Good for us all.
Eric
<< <i>Coinsponge: Close to melt on that Smithsonian (low mintage) proof gold?
ebay # 180610281359
Wondercoin >>
Not to argue over the little stuff too much, but that PR Smithy did have 21,000 made and was not part of a multiple year series set. Plus, it just isn't that exciting of a coin.
<< <i>The MS vanburen will be the king.
Eric >>
Bummer. I kinda split my purchases on the Buchanan between the MS's and Proofs.
<< <i>
<< <i>The MS vanburen will be the king.
Eric >>
Bummer. I kinda split my purchases on the Buchanan between the MS's and Proofs. >>
Me too on the bummer. I got a bunch of the Unc VB's and sent them in for grading. PCGS gave me all 69's. That kind of ticked me off since they looked good to me so I sold most of them and bought a 70 on fleebay. I guess I really can't complain to much but 4 or 5 ms-70's would have been nice.
Listen 21,000 is not high at all for a proof modern coin that people want ... just look at 30,000 for the 95w silver eagle. So, as usual, it all boils down to DEMAND.
If demand for PROOF Liberty low mintage coins is there, at least 3/4 of these should do well. I just can not go on a limb calling ANY proof Liberty the "key" to the series. I think we all agree VB MS is the "key" followed by the Jackson MS.
At $2,000/oz.+ gold one day (hypothetically), the spouse run in MS and proof (a single set) would be approaching nearly $100,000 MELT VALUE. Of course, the "ugly hag" run is not for everybody. But, as I mentioned to Danny the other day (when we were doing some "horse trading" on the phone), I do have some collector interest in the entire series run. Obviously, if a collector / investor / dealer / speculator wanted to try to assemble a dozen complete sets, he might end up with $1,000,000.00 melt value on these coins assuming the hypothetical $2,000+/oz gold level!! Not to mention, 8 great Liberty subset coins (times 12) out of that group!!
Wondercoin
So the most common proof First Spouse coin has a lower mintage than the scarcest proof regular gold commem. And we know that commem collectors typically order 3 to 4 times as many proofs as uncircs at time of issue.
The First Spouse series is an anomaly in this regard, with a tighter proof/unc ratio, but not due to collector demand. The 2007 issues had identical mintage limits (20,000) for the proof and uncirculated versions, and they all sold out or came close. The tighter ratios since then have been driven by "completists" who can afford to collect the entire series in both finishes, and speculators who ignore the proofs and favor the uncircs because their absolute mintages are so low.
I suspect that the popularity of proof First Spouse coins among actual collectors, compared to uncircs, is more along the lines of 3/1 or 4/1, similar to that of the regular commems. And for the same reason - the coins look much more attractive in proof. If this is the case, collector demand at series maturity will drive the prices of the proof First Spouse keys higher than the the prices of the uncirc keys, despite the proofs' higher mintage. At least that's the way I'm betting.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The Liberties look much better in PROOF than UNC.
Hands Down.
I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
Get over it. The promoted set will be slanted toward PROOFS. And the Buch Proof will be the coin to own - that said wth all due respect to the VB Unc. (which in my opinion is probably the least impressive of the 4 Liberty designs)
It seems like many on here got caught without a position in the Buch Proofs....that is evident on how many well known forum members are talking down the coin. I suppose many have sizable positions in the other Proof Libs.
Talk all you want. The FINAL numbers will tell the tale. I'll sit back here and watch with a big grin on my face.
<< <i>Guys -
The Liberties look much better in PROOF than UNC.
Hands Down.
I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
Get over it. The promoted set will be slanted toward PROOFS. And the Buch Proof will be the coin to own - that said wth all due respect to the VB Unc. (which in my opinion is probably the least impressive of the 4 Liberty designs)
It seems like many on here got caught without a position in the Buch Proofs....that is evident on how many well known forum members are talking down the coin. I suppose many have sizable positions in the other Proof Libs.
Talk all you want. The FINAL numbers will tell the tale. I'll sit back here and watch with a big grin on my face.
Or could some just be expressing their honest opinions. I don't think anyone is talking down the Buck proof buy maybe they are trying to tamp down an overexuberance. For me, I have a good number of them so I hope they do good.
Why dont you look through the last few pages of posts. It's very apparent. It's very clear they must not have a position in these.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds.
Box of 20
no offense, but you must need glasses.
proof gold Liberty spouse coins look 100 times better than unc spouse gold.
the promotions to come will capitalize on that fact.
Wondercoin
<< <i>Coinsponge,
no offense, but you must need glasses.
proof gold Liberty spouse coins look 100 times better than unc spouse gold.
the promotions to come will capitalize on that fact. >>
now you're arguing opinion?
<< <i>Has anyone recieved or had their cancel box disappear concerning their PF Buck orders that they ordered after the Proof was on back order by the USM? Thanks. >>
My order: 02/03/2011 at 02:31 PM
It still has the cancel box and I highly doubt I will ever get them.
I am quite grateful to be a member of this board and especially be able to receive so much valuable informations, insights and opinions about modern coins.
Overall, I am quite satisfy with the Buchanan's purchase. It was too bad that the Mint re-strike the UNC; otherwise, the Buch UNC would have been the super coin of 2010.
The only downside is that I have about 70% UNC and 30% Proof. I have 80% UNC graded 70 but only 20% Proof graded 70. I won't complain, as I think I can still get rid of most of the UNC above mint issue price after the Mint stop selling them in Sept 2011.
I plan to sell all the 69 proof and keep all the 70, as I think the Buch PR70 is a great hold for the next two years.
Box of 20
<< <i>Coinsponge,
no offense, but you must need glasses.
No I don't. I just wear them for style.
The debate about what issue will be the key is interesting and my perspective might be somewhat different than most of the other folks in this thread because I do not specialize in the modern coinage niche. In my opinion, this series is far too aggressive for all but the most well heeled and/or dedicated collectors to build in a complete fashion from start to finish in even a single option, PR or MS, let alone being able to complete the set in both options. This would require the purchase of at least two ounces of gold per year at approximately a 30% markup to the price of gold and to do this for over a decade just to obtain a complete set in either PR or MS. I believe the numbers of folks who will collect the Liberty subset will dwarf the numbers of folks who will collect the entire series. Other colletible subsets might be those first wives whose husbands were in office in specific centuries or during declared conflicts, those whose husbands died in office or were of a certain political belief or simply coins that are aesthetically pleasing. If this series follows other modern commem series then the PR issues will generally be much better sellers than the MS issues and the PR issues will be more attractive to most buyers, which will always create addtitional demand pressure on the PR coins and this demand pressure may be enough to overcome the difference in mintage numbers with respect to price going forward.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds. >>
Personally, I like the unc. a little better myself. The frosting on the proofs makes the coins look a little fake-o to me. But it really all boils down to personal opinion.
Good post, TomB.
What does the Mint do with the returns at this point?
I knew it would happen.
Box of 20
<< <i>
<< <i>I love rarity. The MS Van Buren is the key based on mintage. But it'll never trump the look of a Liberty subset in GEM PROOF. Period.
I am not so sure the proofs will win the beauty contest on these over the long haul. I think a good number of collectors may like the look of an unc because it looks like a real coin, not some prize in a gumball machine and the lower mintage has got to add to that. Having said that, I want to say they both should do ok in my book as far a populartiy. That is why I got both kinds. >>
Personally, I like the unc. a little better myself. The frosting on the proofs makes the coins look a little fake-o to me. But it really all boils down to personal opinion.
Good post, TomB.
What does the Mint do with the returns at this point? >>
I prefer the Uncs better too for the same reasons. Proofs appeal to many, but these look like private mint issues.
Uncs look like money.
<< <i>Does anyone know where those Mint-issued 4-coin holders that are being used by some ebay sellers for the Liberty Subset are coming from? That's a nice presentation for either the proofs or the uncs. >>
I would very much like one of those 4 coin set original mint boxes too. If anyone can find some please let me buy one or two with you.
Thanks
Eric
PS: Tom B good post.
They were only produced in 2007 and only fit the 2007 capsules.
I picked one up off eBay and a couple up off the BST.
I don't know the original price for the Unc. box (product XT1), but the Proof box (XS1) was $31.95 (no capsules) before shipping.
I guess now I'm going to have to fight you guys to get them.
(I was hoping for a complete set to go with my hopefully complete set. I know some years have 5 coins. I'd just insert 4 and keep 1 separate or maybe buy an extra for the second wives club)