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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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  • << <i>

    It's time to 'fess up. The only good thing going for the spouse series is the Liberty Subset. Period. It's closed in Proof, nearly closed in Unc (Buch Unc.). A pretty set, nice designs, high gold content.
    >>



    I agree with you. But I think if the others have attractive ladies with low mintages, they should do OK too (or if they feature someone like Eleanor Roosevelt). JT being the prime example. Attractive lady, elegant reverse, low mintage. Of course, I think coins like that will be in the vast minority when this thing is over, and they won't have the small, more affordable subset going for them.
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • I looked at The PCGS Populations of the FS Jackson PF 70, the FS Van Buren PF 70 and what has been reported so far for the FS Buchanan PF 70 and the Buchs look there are a much greater number than the two other Liberty FS PF 70s. Is this going to keep the prices for Buchanan FS PF 70s down in value compared to the other two in similar grade? Comments....
    Specialized Investments
  • bluelobsterbluelobster Posts: 1,220 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I looked at The PCGS Populations of the FS Jackson PF 70, the FS Van Buren PF 70 and what has been reported so far for the FS Buchanan PF 70 and the Buchs look there are a much greater number than the two other Liberty FS PF 70s. Is this going to keep the prices for Buchanan FS PF 70s down in value compared to the other two in similar grade? Comments.... >>



    I think what it means, is that, more "investors" who subsequently sent more in for grading, hold the biggest chunks of this issue, versus being spread more widely with collectors, who typically send in less coins to be graded. As we have usually seen, when "investors" hold more of an issue vs collectors, this has kept the values from rising as much as one might think. I suspect the Jackson's and Van Buren's, will have higher values even if the actual numbers on the Buck's are lower. Although being the last piece liberty set, I think all of the liberties will do pretty well.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,905 ✭✭✭✭✭
    7/8... If you believe the only good thing about the hag series is the Liberty coins ... all the best to you. I still want them all and post virtually every week on the dealer network the top bids on the non-Libs (and Libs) I want to buy. That's all. Wondercoin

    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • Dates are being pushed back. Wonder if I will get my order?
    Item: X66 Qty: 1 Exp Ship: 3/08/11
    2010 JAMES BUCHANAN'S LIBERTY PRF COINS
    BST Transactions;
    Seller- thebigeng; morgansforever; bolivarshagnasty
    Buyer-nibanny; derryb; zubie; smittys; konsole; tootawl; socalbigmark; fullcameo; coinkid855


  • << <i>Dates are being pushed back. Wonder if I will get my order?
    Item: X66 Qty: 1 Exp Ship: 3/08/11
    2010 JAMES BUCHANAN'S LIBERTY PRF COINS >>



    At this point if you get your order, it will more than likely be someone's return. When did you put in the order? I have an order from 2/03/11
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭
    Looks like the Jane Pierce Proof may go dark. At 4677 now.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Got this today. Who knows if I'll get them. I had to go through at least 8 so far to get three nice ones. If I get these who knows how they'll look.


    Greetings from the United States Mint.
    We regret to inform you that the item(s) listed below
    are currently on backorder. Please expect your item(s)
    to arrive within the timeframe listed below.
    Track your order at http://catalog.usmint.gov
    Thanks again for shopping with the United States Mint.

    Order #:
    Sold To :
    Ship To :
    Item: X66 Qty: 2 Exp Ship: 3/08/11
    2010 JAMES BUCHANAN'S LIBERTY PRF COINS

    This is a system generated e-mail. Please do not reply.
    If you have questions, please visit the Help page at .
    http://catalog.usmint.gov or call us at 1-800-USA-MINT.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Looks like the Jane Pierce Proof may go dark. At 4677 now. >>



    Where does 4677 put it compared to the current lowest? Thanks.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • I got the same e-mail.
  • Based on receiving the USM email, are we going to get our Buch PFs that are on BO?? I know that the Mint does not guarantee we will. Comments.
    Specialized Investments
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    It's impossible to tell with that 1 e-mail.

    A BO is a BO.

    If they go sold out before they can fill your order, they will e-mail you that it's sold out.


    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭
    Where does 4677 put it compared to the current lowest? Thanks.

    Numismaticnews.net has all the past mint stats. Not sure which is the lowest proof
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I can't find it. Does anyone know what the current lowest spouse proof number is? Thanks.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • TomBTomB Posts: 21,200 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I don't know how accurate the numbers are, but there is a website devoted to the series with information here.
    Thomas Bush Numismatics & Numismatic Photography

    In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson

    image


  • << <i>I can't find it. Does anyone know what the current lowest spouse proof number is? Thanks. >>



    -------------------(1)*--------------(2)*
    Letitia Tyler------5,163-----------5295
    Julia Tyler------- 4,830-----------4844
    Zachary Taylor---4,787-----------4945

    (1)* From US Mint weekly sales report as you can find them from Coinnew.net, news.coinupdate.com
    (2)* Eric's number. I believe Eric's numbers are more accurate.

    As of Feb 13, Jane Pierce Proof's number was 4,677, with a 22 increase from previous week. I think it went backorder on Feb 18.

    You make your call.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks very much for the info guys!!!!

    Who ordered the Pierce coins when they went B/O, just curious?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • I ordered 3: Order Date: 02/18/2011 at 06:21 PM

    It is still in back order.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • No Pierces for me. I have to be choosy with my battles and the Pierce is an unattractive piece who's mintages will likely be toppled in the future.
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • goldman86goldman86 Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    7over8, there is no reason to call wondercoin out because his opinion is different than yours. Settle down over there.

    In my opinion, I feel the 4 coin liberty subset will be pushed by the major marketing companies in the industry and will do very well very quickly. That said, I also think the low mintage "ugly hags" will also be have their day and enjoy price appreciation as well, but it will take a little more time.

    The great thing about this series is nobody knows what is going to happen.

    Let’s get to some facts though; if somebody is assembling the entire first spouse series then they have to buy 1 of each of the 4 liberty coins. That means the circulating population in the marketplace of both the liberties as well as the “ugly” hags is reduced by 1. That being the case, demand for the “ugly” hags is good for the liberty subset. Demand for the 4 coin Liberty subset, however, does not yield the same effect on the “ugly” hag coins because the “ugly” hags are not needed to complete the 4 coin lib subset. That is why I like the 4 coin lib subset. The coin population will be attacked by 2 collector bases.

    Am I right, is wondercoin right, there is no way to tell for sure, but I will say this, I am interested in those Buchanan proofs that Mitch keeps talking about…

    The Stealth Ninja
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    In my opinion, I feel the 4 coin liberty subset will be pushed by the major marketing companies in the industry and will do very well very quickly.


    That theory just doesn't ring true to me. I think the "major" marketing companies like to promote coins they can get in quantity and I don't see that happening with these. If they were going to do it I think you would see them now.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,905 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Keep in mind that the Liberty subset represents a sizeable % of the 2008-date spouse series thus far (excluding the spouse coins still on sale at the mint, and the 07 coins which are basically "melt" at this point). Neither myself nor most of the customers I am dealing with are "missing the boat" on the Liberty coins - that is for sure. But, I have not put all my eggs in that Liberty basket either as some might suggest doing (and perhaps their spouse holdings will perform better in the years ahead?) To Coinsponge's point ...

    The 06w MS burnished platinum coins have wildly low mintages and have done essentially "nothing" in the past few years (except probably drop in price relative to platinum spot). One might argue it is exactly due to the inability of a large "promoter" to get a large position to "promote" that these sub-3,000 mintage coins languish nearly 5 years later. As goldman86 states ... no one knows for sure what is going to happen with the spouse/Liberty coins. Hypothetically, if gold hits $4,000/oz. one day in the future, nearly all of them may be worth only "melt"
    image

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • Guys we have seen the 2010 dated hags in all forms struck to anticipated demand this year and the unc Pierce coin is unlikely to have a initial run larger than the 3250 unc Buchanan first run. The sub 3300 unc generic first hags are likely to be good coins if you buy them cheap. I think unc Pierce will go black prior to its normal end date. To me the unknown is what will the mint strike to on the next 4 hags in 2011? This will impact the behavior of the already existing generic uncs and proofs as much as anything IMHO. The generics need to blow through the in stock inventory and push demand and the 2011 striking runs up.

    11 generics with a tight 3100-3600 mintage spread and key date effect dillution is not something I want to see.

    Eric

    PS: When its all said and done I think the Unc Vanburen will be this sets Hawaiian.


  • << <i>Guys we have seen the 2010 dated hags in all forms struck to anticipated demand this year and the unc Pierce coin is unlikely to have a initial run larger than the 3250 unc Buchanan first run. The sub 3300 unc generic first hags are likely to be good coins if you buy them cheap. I think unc Pierce will go black prior to its normal end date. To me the unknown is what will the mint strike to on the next 4 hags in 2011? This will impact the behavior of the already existing generic uncs and proofs as much as anything IMHO. The generics need to blow through the in stock inventory and push demand and the 2011 striking runs up.

    11 generics with a tight 3100-3600 mintage spread and key date effect dillution is not something I want to see.

    Eric

    PS: When its all said and done I think the Unc Vanburen will be this sets Hawaiian. >>



    Hi Eric,

    What's your view on the sub 5000 Proof generic first hags?
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • They will be good coins if you buy them at 1.2 times melt.
  • Thanks Eric!
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    With nearly all the focus on the mintages and sub-set mintages I think a very important thing is being overlooked. It is the PCGS graded coins, particular First Strike. I think that it is likely that many of these coins will end up with mintages in the 3000 range unc and 5000 range proof since they are struck to demand and that is what demand is lately so there will be little in the way of stand-out keys. Therefore, if appreciation is what you are looking for and can afford it, the PCGS 70 first strikes may offer greater rewards than raw in the long haul. With populations in the 100 to 200 range I think that down the line the best appreciation could very well be in that category. But don't forget to keep the box because everyone wants the boxes.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    I think the more people that stay away from these coins the more I like it.image

    BTW I think this ugly series is the first mint series ever in gold, silver or platinum to have something special done to it. None of the gold or silver classic coins had that done to them either as a series.

    It may be overlooked as to what will have to happen in the future as far as collecting these is concerned. There are 4 coins though that don't follow like the rest, but they aren't liberty's.
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭
    BTW I think this ugly series is the first mint series ever in gold, silver or platinum to have something special done to it. None of the gold or silver classic coins had that done to them either as a series.

    There are 4 coins though that don't follow like the rest, but they aren't liberty's. >>





    Sounds like a riddle.image
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.

  • -------------------(1)*--------------(2)*
    Letitia Tyler------5,163-----------5295
    Julia Tyler------- 4,830-----------4844
    Zachary Taylor---4,787-----------4945


    (1)* From US Mint weekly sales report as you can find them from Coinnew.net, news.coinupdate.com...etc
    (2)* Eric's number. I believe Eric's numbers are more accurate.

    The latest update for Jane Pierce is 4,806.
    BST reference: wondercoin, cone10, fivecents, jmdm1194, goldman86
  • ronsrons Posts: 338 ✭✭
    Coinsponge, Are you saying there will be no return on fs 69's as opposed to the 70's. I realize there is an initial price differential but if the 70's increase shouldn't the 69's increase in a proportional manner? I still don't get this whole first strike thing but at the moment the market seems to have latched onto it. Is there a rational answer to the appeal of the first strike designation? Can someone explain why a first strike ms/pr 70 would be worth more money than regular ms/pr 70? I am genuinely confused/perplexed by the whole concept. Thanks in advance for your input.

    Edit to add: Does the registry give extra points for first strike? If so, perhaps that explains the frenzy.
    "When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
  • Ohh man, don't get me started on First Strikes....
    Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
  • USM reported one less Buch PF sold last week. BO coins may not come to pass !!
    Specialized Investments
  • goldman86goldman86 Posts: 497 ✭✭✭
    Mr Wondercoin --- would there be anything to complain about if gold reached $4000 an oz? We all may be on the beach ordering frozen drinks with little umbrellas in them...

    gimmee a pina colada and keep the change...

    image

    An interesting thing to note is Modern Coin Mart is only selling the liberty coins in NGC MS70 and PF70 as part of the 4 coin or 8 coin Liberty subsets. I think this is indicitive of how a large amount of these coins will be sold in the future, but that is just my opinion...

    The Stealth Ninja
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,641 ✭✭✭
    I don't think I would want to be in an economy where Gold is at $4K in the immediate future (10 years it might be ok) and this coming from a gold bug. Perhaps the collapse of the dollar would allow gold to reach this high.
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,905 ✭✭✭✭✭
    When I started selling the first year of issue Gold Buffalos back in 2006 (just 4 1/2 years ago), gold was at roughly $600/oz. So, what is that... roughly a 135% increase in the price of gold since that time? The "premium" for the MS70FS coins from that first year have shrunk dramatically in that time period as a direct result (IMHO -at least in part) of the gold level skyrocketing as it has.

    If gold (hypotetically) were to rise the very same 135% from current levels over the next 5 years, that would be roughly $3,300/oz gold (if my math is right)!

    Goldman86, since I never made it to the beach to drink pina coladas on the first 135% rise, I am not sure I will make it on the next 135% rise!! image

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Exact copies of spouse coins, lol. Must not be popular sellers.

    image
  • Any USM customers receive any Buch PF spousal gold coins that have been on Backorder? Thanks......
    Specialized Investments
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,822 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Any USM customers receive any Buch PF spousal gold coins that have been on Backorder? Thanks......

    My backordered coins continue to be moved back, one day at a time, now scheduled to ship on 3/15/2011.image

    I assume that I'll still get them, because I did get an email on Feb. 21st that informed me of the backorder status (and I did place my order a few days before the cutoff).
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • fivecentsfivecents Posts: 11,207 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Yep my Buch PR is also says:

    << <i>1 unit backordered. Expected to ship on 03/15/2011. >>

  • AkbeezAkbeez Posts: 2,694 ✭✭✭✭✭
    2 Buchs Prf - Ord 2/4, still on B/O now 3/15...
    Refs: MCM,Fivecents,Julio,Robman,Endzone,Coiny,Agentjim007,Musky1011,holeinone1972,Tdec1000,Type2,bumanchu, Metalsman,Wondercoin,Pitboss,Tomohawk,carew4me,segoja,thebigeng,jlc_coin,mbogoman,sportsmod,dragon,tychojoe,Schmitz7,claychaser, Bullsitter, robeck, Nickpatton, jwitten, and many OTHERS
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    fire up the presses?!?!?

    ???
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Coinsponge, Are you saying there will be no return on fs 69's as opposed to the 70's. I realize there is an initial price differential but if the 70's increase shouldn't the 69's increase in a proportional manner? I still don't get this whole first strike thing but at the moment the market seems to have latched onto it. Is there a rational answer to the appeal of the first strike designation? Can someone explain why a first strike ms/pr 70 would be worth more money than regular ms/pr 70? I am genuinely confused/perplexed by the whole concept. Thanks in advance for your input.

    Edit to add: Does the registry give extra points for first strike? If so, perhaps that explains the frenzy. >>




    Not at all but you might see the 70's make larger gains in the future. Now to the appeal of the fs. I think that even though it has a weak claim to any real significance it is a distinction that is bolstered by the most respected grading services and therefore gets credibility whether deserved or not. With that established it then falls in the supply/demand dynamic. If there are few of these then those collectors who want the best of the best shall have them and will pay for it.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • I seen a couple time people posting on this thread that there are many more fist strike for buchanan than any other coins. Where do you find this information? I looked at PCGS pop report but they do not report which coins are FS, in addition the numbers do not even seem to be correct for what is graded;

    2010-W $10 Buchanan's Liberty, DC PRDC 43 19 62


    Only 62 coins graded?
  • HIGHLOWLEAVESHIGHLOWLEAVES Posts: 785 ✭✭✭
    Last weeks USM sales of Buch PFs $10 Spousal gold coins was unchanged at 7313. Comments.... Appears that none of the BO PFs have been sold..
    Specialized Investments
  • Nobody can tell me where to get the PR70 Firs Strike Report?
  • CoinspongeCoinsponge Posts: 3,927 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Nobody can tell me where to get the PR70 Firs Strike Report? >>




    You have to look up the coin number and enter it in the search box.
    Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
  • drfishdrfish Posts: 942 ✭✭✭✭
    First Strikes for Buch proofs 66-2 ,67-0, 68-8 ,69-587 and 70-462 so yes about 4X the pr70 FS compared to the Jacksons and Van Burens


  • << <i>First Strikes for Buch proofs 66-2 ,67-0, 68-8 ,69-587 and 70-462 so yes about 4X the pr70 FS compared to the Jacksons and Van Burens >>



    Thanks I found the info on coinfacts
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Abigail Fillmore is backordered.

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