Gyros - I do not believe there is a sub-3,000 spouse at this point. So, perhaps you may want to adjust your arugment to include the 3,000 - 3,300 range or whatever other range you see fit?
Also, my original comments focused on the pronouncement that the Buck proof will be THE best proof "spouse" coin out there. I flat out disagreed as there is already a proof J. Tyler that "blows it away". Now, the pronouncement is for the proof Buck to be one of the best in the end ... as I said, I can live with that as a possibility. Of course, I would happily trade up to (10) proof Bucks right now straight up for a number of different spouse coins I like better - MS and proof. Anyone who really believes the proof Buck is the future key ... just pm me and, perhaps we can put an easy trade together for the (10) pieces that I have available.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Thank you all--esp. Eric and 7/8-- for your great insight on these. I was able to pick up one proof 70 Buch the other day at a great price right as these things went to b/o status.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
I have to say I wasn't totally surprised considering Eric's intel but the question remains about the final mintage. Will it be the king proof of the Liberty subset. I suppose we will have to wait and see.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Best to hold those proof bucks. The subset is waaaaaaayyyy more popular than those old ugly ladies with lower mintages.
What you dont consider is the future for the ugly ladies. Your "low" numbers now can be destroyed by even lower numbers in future issues. But they aren't making any more Liberty designs.
Subset closed. Promotions begin soon. Coming to a show near you. In print ad as well. Demand will grow and so will price.
Let's throw a wild card in.... does anyone think with continuing dismal sales #'s for most issues, the mintage limits could be reduced further from the current 15,000? Let's face it... all of the '11, '12, and '13 issues will be dogs.
<< <i>Let's throw a wild card in.... does anyone think with continuing dismal sales #'s for most issues, the mintage limits could be reduced further from the current 15,000? Let's face it... all of the '11, '12, and '13 issues will be dogs. >>
They might as well reduce it to 10,000. Couldn't see them going lower than that.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>"But they aren't making any more Liberty designs."
what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century?
Wondercoin >>
Unless, of course, Congress gets a wild hair and decides that someone not affiliated in any way with the President should be on the coin such as with the case of Chester A. Arthur whose First Spouse coin will not feature Ms. Liberty, but instead will feature Alice Paul; a woman who was born during his Presidency and fought for women's rights.
<< <i>"But they aren't making any more Liberty designs." what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century? >>
It's still possible that congress and the mint can change the program to include another Liberty subset member, by giving Alice Paul her own separate commemorative coin, and thus freeing up Chester A. Arthur for that purpose. It's an idea that should be floated to the new US mint director, whenever one is named, and the mint director can then request congress to make the modifications. I can readily imagine it happening, it's not such a steep hill to climb.
<< <i>Not really....7over8 has been saying that since 8/30/2010 >>
You got that right. Wait till you see final numbers after waste is calculated. After all OPA, it was short struck, it will be the key proof to the Lib subset, timing is moot.
Now you have a complete CLOSED Liberty Subsets in Proof.
Anyone care to guess whether it'll be Proofs or Unc Liberties promoted first?
Hmmmm. let me guess. PROOF.
It's amazing how the Monday morning quarterbacks show up, when they never investigate or review a particular issue, never form an opinion on it, never take a side----the johnny come lately's-----and have BIG opinions and criticism------par for the course here. It's easy to predict once the event has happened.
OK, I have two PCGS FS PR70's and three PCGS FS MS70's I bought back in October. I feel read good about the proofs now, but what are the chances on the Uncs? I get the impression these won't sell out quick.
[It's amazing how the Monday morning quarterbacks show up, when they never investigate or review a particular issue, never form an opinion on it, never take a side----the johnny come lately's-----and have BIG opinions and criticism------par for the course here. It's easy to predict once the event has happened. >>
I fail to understand where that comment came from.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
7/8 I am going to give you a half win on this one because the mint employees gave you the insider mintage numbers already. They must have told you bad info on the Buch unc though that is why it is only a half win.
And let's be fair here, you actually didn't predict anything either, you were given inside source info. Even with that info you were wrong a couple of times, but in the end it only matters what the final mintages are so I am giving you 1 right and 1 wrong..
I think what is shocking here is how clueless the mint is about these coins and others they have done lately. The UHR they struck 200,000 and only sold 115,000 so will be melting the difference of 85,000.
Here they struck much less than a years worth of sales by a large margin, and apparently struck too many unc coins in comparison. Then look at the 5 oz ATB going at only 33,000 bullion and striking collector coins with no authorization, another fiasco.
We profit from it so I can't complain, I only hope they keep the same employees working, they have done such an outstanding job for us.
<< <i>Not really....7over8 has been saying that since 8/30/2010 >>
You got that right. Wait till you see final numbers after waste is calculated. After all OPA, it was short struck, it will be the key proof to the Lib subset, timing is moot.
Now you have a complete CLOSED Liberty Subsets in Proof.
Anyone care to guess whether it'll be Proofs or Unc Liberties promoted first?
Hmmmm. let me guess. PROOF.
It's amazing how the Monday morning quarterbacks show up, when they never investigate or review a particular issue, never form an opinion on it, never take a side----the johnny come lately's-----and have BIG opinions and criticism------par for the course here. It's easy to predict once the event has happened. >>
Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day.
My prediction for the First Spouse Gold coins, and I'm the first one to post it. That all will go dark after 1 year of issue by the Mint.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< the only way to collect these are in FS MS70/PR70 holders >>
I prefer FS 69's. The coins look just as good, they're just as scarce, the premiums over melt are lower, the premiums for First Strike are almost nonexistent, and the "paying up for the plastic" risk is removed.
<< The subset is waaaaaaayyyy more popular than those old ugly ladies with lower mintages. >>
I would imagine right now it is unknown whether you will get your PR Buchs if the date keeps moving and they already put up the "SOLD OUT" sign. This has happened to me before, too, and sometimes I get the coins while other times I do not. The longest wait for me was something like five months after sell out before the coins were shipped. I don't know if they were returns or not, but they had a very high rate of 70 grades in them.
Yes, my longest wait was for a set of '08 Plat Proofs. I ordered right when they went red. I waited many months thinking that they'd never arrive. Then, when they had more than doubled in value they showed up. I was amazed.
I think that the chances for the Buchs are 50/50. I ordered at least eight of them to get just three really nice ones. If these do show, it will be interesting to see if they are returns w/major frost breaks or nice ones. Might be a while...
<< <i>7/8 I am going to give you a half win on this one because the mint employees gave you the insider mintage numbers already. They must have told you bad info on the Buch unc though that is why it is only a half win. >>
Half - the problem is you cant just accept you were totally offbase and missed all the stats that help you predict where a new spouse issue will end up.
We dont have any info from any employees, I don't know any.
The topic of short strikes has been discussed at length on this thread and others. The USM is very predictable. The inital mintage runs over the last few spouse coins have been a 65/35 split, proof to unc. Layer that against 10,000 initial coins for "ANTICIPATED DEMAND" and you have your inital quantities. They dont come out of the gate and mint all 15,000 coins.
I never predicted the Unc would be a play. The seem to have struck more.
<< <i>Ok OPA - except that i've been correct on many more of these issues, and you haven't forecasted ANY. >>
You have certainly been on the money several times, I always see halfstrike bashing you but have yet to see any meaningful predictions out of him. Kind of weird if you ask me, you would think that by now after the whole Platinum fiasco he would at least respect your opinion. By the way did you ever get an apology for that? Man he was quite vocal and brutal for two years, the least he should have done was provide a nice apology...
Folks will underestimate the uglies. Their super-low mintages will necessarily raise their premiums, it is already happening now. A Harrison is curoiusly tough to find and she is very much buried and unloved yet she's got an ask at $965 on CDN which is way over current melt.
Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington 17,142.... 2007 Adams 12,340.... 2007 Madison 4,462...... 2008 Monroe 3,885...... 2008 Adams 3,645...... 2009 Harrison 3,629*... 2009 Taylor 3,500*... 2010 Fillmore 3,500*... 2010 Pierce 3,489..... 2009 Polk 3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler 3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well.
<< <i>Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington 17,142.... 2007 Adams 12,340.... 2007 Madison 4,462...... 2008 Monroe 3,885...... 2008 Adams 3,645...... 2009 Harrison 3,629*... 2009 Taylor 3,500*... 2010 Fillmore 3,500*... 2010 Pierce 3,489..... 2009 Polk 3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler 3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well. >>
Eric, I presume these are MS numbers, is that correct? Thanks.
<< <i>Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington 17,142.... 2007 Adams 12,340.... 2007 Madison 4,462...... 2008 Monroe 3,885...... 2008 Adams 3,645...... 2009 Harrison 3,629*... 2009 Taylor 3,500*... 2010 Fillmore 3,500*... 2010 Pierce 3,489..... 2009 Polk 3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler 3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well. >>
Don't forget the grade game. This is where you could see the real differences, not just the mintages. A higher mintage coin in a 70 PCGS fs may be more valuable if the populations of that coin in that grade are lower than the same grade of a lower mintage coin. They are often proportional but sometimes distortions exist. Take for instance the Buchanan Liberty. It may come in as the king but the populations in 70 are way higher than the Van Buren and Jackson.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington 17,142.... 2007 Adams 12,340.... 2007 Madison 4,462...... 2008 Monroe 3,885...... 2008 Adams 3,645...... 2009 Harrison 3,629*... 2009 Taylor 3,500*... 2010 Fillmore 3,500*... 2010 Pierce 3,489..... 2009 Polk 3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler 3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the first 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well. *********
Another thing that I am concerned about is if the Pierce and Fillmore do not blow throught the 3,500 mintage range in the next few months then the four new coins this year could get struck to anticipated damand of 3500 coins also with wander for scap. Then you could have 10 coins all in the 3200-3600 range. This is a real issue unless something changes soon. That kind of key effect dillution is not going to make for strong super coins.
I was looking at the "Mint News Blog" on the internet a few minutes ago. The topic was the unexpected sellout of the Buchanan PF spousal gold coins. The article said that the latest sales figure being trhis week's report stated that only 7,317 Proofs have been sold. Interesting news !!
<< <i> Another thing that I am concerned about is if the Pierce and Fillmore do not blow throught the 3,500 mintage range in the next few months then the four new coins this year could get struck to anticipated damand of 3500 coins also with wander for scap. Then you could have 10 coins all in the 3200-3600 range. This is a real issue unless something changes soon. That kind of key effect dillution is not going to make for strong super coins.
7317 NLA FOR THE BUCK PROOF AS OF YESTERDAY. >>
JT is in for some real competition. Even if the Pierce and Fillmore to OK, I think that'd just be holding off the inevitable. The 2011s don't look very appealing. Not looking good for supercoins.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
Doesn't anyone here want to buy Mary Todd Lincoln just out of historical interest? Just wondering. It seems as if ALL of the discussion around these pertains to speculation. Aside from the Liberty set, does anyone like these as coins? I do own a couple, but have to say I would easily part with them, even if they became very valuable. I don't feel that way about my buffs and plats.
"According to the US Mint's website, the proof version of the James Buchanan's Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin has sold out. This is very unexpected as the coin has not reached the maximum authorized mintage and has only been available for about five months.
The maximum authorized mintage for the James Buchanan's Liberty coin was set at 15,000 across both the proof and uncirculated versions, with the ratio determined based on customer demand. As of the latest US Mint sales report, sales had reached 7,317 proof coins and 4,461 uncirculated coins, for a combined total of 11,778.
Sales of the James Buchanan's Liberty Gold Coins had been stronger than usual for the series due to the classic depiction of Liberty used on the obverse. The coin also represented the final issue of the "Liberty Subset"
2008 Proof Van Buren’s Liberty Final sales report 7,515. 2010 Proof Buchanan’s Liberty Final sales report 7,317.
Comments
Also, my original comments focused on the pronouncement that the Buck proof will be THE best proof "spouse" coin out there. I flat out disagreed as there is already a proof J. Tyler that "blows it away". Now, the pronouncement is for the proof Buck to be one of the best in the end ... as I said, I can live with that as a possibility. Of course, I would happily trade up to (10) proof Bucks right now straight up for a number of different spouse coins I like better - MS and proof. Anyone who really believes the proof Buck is the future key ... just pm me and, perhaps we can put an easy trade together for the (10) pieces that I have available.
Wondercoin
Julia UNC is 2861
gyros
Wondercoin
Where in the world did you get those 10 Buchanan Proofs so cheaply right at the sell out...oh yeah...my brother...
hehe
I'd consider trading for those coins back if you are interested...
I'd love to talk spouse coins with you ... send me a PM with the best number to call you at.
Wondercoin
You did well on that purchase and should have the coins shortly...
Best to hold those proof bucks. The subset is waaaaaaayyyy more popular than those old ugly ladies with lower mintages.
What you dont consider is the future for the ugly ladies. Your "low" numbers now can be destroyed by even lower numbers in future issues. But they aren't making any more Liberty designs.
Subset closed. Promotions begin soon. Coming to a show near you. In print ad as well. Demand will grow and so will price.
<< <i>do they short strike Lincoln, too?
Pierce?
===============
1100 >>
ALL THE 2010 DATED UNC FIRST HAGS BUT LINCOLN AND THE SECOND STRUCK BUCK WILL SELL OUT ABOUT 3500 COINS.
<< <i>Let's throw a wild card in.... does anyone think with continuing dismal sales #'s for most issues, the mintage limits could be reduced further from the current 15,000? Let's face it... all of the '11, '12, and '13 issues will be dogs. >>
They might as well reduce it to 10,000. Couldn't see them going lower than that.
what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century?
Wondercoin
<< <i>"But they aren't making any more Liberty designs."
what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century?
Wondercoin >>
Unless, of course, Congress gets a wild hair and decides that someone not affiliated in any way with the President should be on the coin such as with the case of Chester A. Arthur whose First Spouse coin will not feature Ms. Liberty, but instead will feature Alice Paul; a woman who was born during his Presidency and fought for women's rights.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>"But they aren't making any more Liberty designs." what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century?
It's still possible that congress and the mint can change the program to include another Liberty subset member, by giving Alice Paul her own separate commemorative coin, and thus freeing up Chester A. Arthur for that purpose. It's an idea that should be floated to the new US mint director, whenever one is named, and the mint director can then request congress to make the modifications. I can readily imagine it happening, it's not such a steep hill to climb.
<< <i>"But they aren't making any more Liberty designs."
what if a single guy wins the presidency later this century?
>>
he'ds have to get shot really quickly since he would have to be dead 2 years.
the first spouse doesn't have that exact wording, but I wonder if the language ties it to the release of the dollar coin.
I'd have to look that up but the chances are so remote that I'm not going to bother.
<< <i>Gyros - Julia is actually 3,143. That is the final mintage figure I beleive. You were working off a preliminary (sub-3,000) figure.
Wondercoin >>
Is Julia not still the overall Spouse key? I thought that it was? Do you think that this is not the case? Thanks.
<< <i>Ok, I predict that soon the proofs will go dark.
Man, I nailed that one!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Ok, I predict that soon the proofs will go dark.
Man, I nailed that one!!
Not really....7over8 has been saying that since 8/30/2010
Just read one or two pages back, where Julia is discussed and what the opinion of Eric is on the matter.
<< <i>Not really....7over8 has been saying that since 8/30/2010 >>
You got that right. Wait till you see final numbers after waste is calculated. After all OPA, it was short struck, it will be the key proof to the Lib subset, timing is moot.
Now you have a complete CLOSED Liberty Subsets in Proof.
Anyone care to guess whether it'll be Proofs or Unc Liberties promoted first?
Hmmmm. let me guess. PROOF.
It's amazing how the Monday morning quarterbacks show up, when they never investigate or review a particular issue, never form an opinion on it, never take a side----the johnny come lately's-----and have BIG opinions and criticism------par for the course here. It's easy to predict once the event has happened.
I fail to understand where that comment came from.
And let's be fair here, you actually didn't predict anything either, you were given inside source info. Even with that info you were wrong a couple of times, but in the end it only matters what the final mintages are so I am giving you 1 right and 1 wrong..
I think what is shocking here is how clueless the mint is about these coins and others they have done lately. The UHR they struck 200,000 and only sold 115,000 so will be melting the difference of 85,000.
Here they struck much less than a years worth of sales by a large margin, and apparently struck too many unc coins in comparison. Then look at the 5 oz ATB going at only 33,000 bullion and striking collector coins with no authorization, another fiasco.
We profit from it so I can't complain, I only hope they keep the same employees working, they have done such an outstanding job for us.
<< <i>
<< <i>Not really....7over8 has been saying that since 8/30/2010 >>
You got that right. Wait till you see final numbers after waste is calculated. After all OPA, it was short struck, it will be the key proof to the Lib subset, timing is moot.
Now you have a complete CLOSED Liberty Subsets in Proof.
Anyone care to guess whether it'll be Proofs or Unc Liberties promoted first?
Hmmmm. let me guess. PROOF.
It's amazing how the Monday morning quarterbacks show up, when they never investigate or review a particular issue, never form an opinion on it, never take a side----the johnny come lately's-----and have BIG opinions and criticism------par for the course here. It's easy to predict once the event has happened. >>
Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day.
My prediction for the First Spouse Gold coins, and I'm the first one to post it. That all will go dark after 1 year of issue by the Mint.
I prefer FS 69's. The coins look just as good, they're just as scarce, the premiums over melt are lower, the premiums for First Strike are almost nonexistent, and the "paying up for the plastic" risk is removed.
<< The subset is waaaaaaayyyy more popular than those old ugly ladies with lower mintages. >>
Julia Tyler is ugly?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
I think that the chances for the Buchs are 50/50. I ordered at least eight of them to get just three really nice ones. If these do show, it will be interesting to see if they are returns w/major frost breaks or nice ones. Might be a while...
<< <i>7/8 I am going to give you a half win on this one because the mint employees gave you the insider mintage numbers already. They must have told you bad info on the Buch unc though that is why it is only a half win. >>
Half - the problem is you cant just accept you were totally offbase and missed all the stats that help you predict where a new spouse issue will end up.
We dont have any info from any employees, I don't know any.
The topic of short strikes has been discussed at length on this thread and others. The USM is very predictable. The inital mintage runs over the last few spouse coins have been a 65/35 split, proof to unc. Layer that against 10,000 initial coins for "ANTICIPATED DEMAND" and you have your inital quantities. They dont come out of the gate and mint all 15,000 coins.
I never predicted the Unc would be a play. The seem to have struck more.
<< <i>Ok OPA - except that i've been correct on many more of these issues, and you haven't forecasted ANY. >>
You have certainly been on the money several times, I always see halfstrike bashing you but have yet to see any meaningful predictions out of him. Kind of weird if you ask me, you would think that by now after the whole Platinum fiasco he would at least respect your opinion. By the way did you ever get an apology for that? Man he was quite vocal and brutal for two years, the least he should have done was provide a nice apology...
17,661.... 2007 Washington
17,142.... 2007 Adams
12,340.... 2007 Madison
4,462...... 2008 Monroe
3,885...... 2008 Adams
3,645...... 2009 Harrison
3,629*... 2009 Taylor
3,500*... 2010 Fillmore
3,500*... 2010 Pierce
3,489..... 2009 Polk
3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler
3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well.
<< <i>Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington
17,142.... 2007 Adams
12,340.... 2007 Madison
4,462...... 2008 Monroe
3,885...... 2008 Adams
3,645...... 2009 Harrison
3,629*... 2009 Taylor
3,500*... 2010 Fillmore
3,500*... 2010 Pierce
3,489..... 2009 Polk
3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler
3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well. >>
Eric, I presume these are MS numbers, is that correct? Thanks.
In honor of the memory of Cpl. Michael E. Thompson
<< <i>Its not that ugly coins cant run very well. Thats not what I at least am saying. A clearly dominant 2,800 mintage ugly first hag can be a GREAT coin. The best coins have a set to drive them and are the lowest pop coin in the set. Furthermore its best in most cases when the key does not have lots of other "keys" all in the same mintage range to dillute its key date effect.
17,661.... 2007 Washington
17,142.... 2007 Adams
12,340.... 2007 Madison
4,462...... 2008 Monroe
3,885...... 2008 Adams
3,645...... 2009 Harrison
3,629*... 2009 Taylor
3,500*... 2010 Fillmore
3,500*... 2010 Pierce
3,489..... 2009 Polk
3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler
3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the firt 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well. >>
Don't forget the grade game. This is where you could see the real differences, not just the mintages. A higher mintage coin in a 70 PCGS fs may be more valuable if the populations of that coin in that grade are lower than the same grade of a lower mintage coin. They are often proportional but sometimes distortions exist. Take for instance the Buchanan Liberty. It may come in as the king but the populations in 70 are way higher than the Van Buren and Jackson.
We dont have any info from any employees, I don't know any.
**********
Not exactly full disclosure dont you think? Very carefully worded.
:-)
Eric
17,661.... 2007 Washington
17,142.... 2007 Adams
12,340.... 2007 Madison
4,462...... 2008 Monroe
3,885...... 2008 Adams
3,645...... 2009 Harrison
3,629*... 2009 Taylor
3,500*... 2010 Fillmore
3,500*... 2010 Pierce
3,489..... 2009 Polk
3,240..... 2009 Letitia Tyler
3,143..... 2009 Julia Tyler
The old commems teach us that if the lead coins are all close then design appeal is important. We are going to see too many lead coins with a <500 mintage spread. All the heat ends up in the first 3 coins of a set. Going forward anything over about 3400 is going to be out of the lead three coins and needs to have some design appeal to pull hard in a market without promotion distortion.
This is why I am saying 3500-3600 mintage generic first hags that are not good looking may not develop well.
*********
Another thing that I am concerned about is if the Pierce and Fillmore do not blow throught the 3,500 mintage range in the next few months then the four new coins this year could get struck to anticipated damand of 3500 coins also with wander for scap. Then you could have 10 coins all in the 3200-3600 range. This is a real issue unless something changes soon. That kind of key effect dillution is not going to make for strong super coins.
7317 NLA FOR THE BUCK PROOF AS OF YESTERDAY.
gotta wonder how many true collectors of the full series are left and how those number will change.
maybe we'll see some <2500 mintages. who knows.
<< <i>i still collect the full series....maybe i am crazy.....
I do too
<< <i>
Another thing that I am concerned about is if the Pierce and Fillmore do not blow throught the 3,500 mintage range in the next few months then the four new coins this year could get struck to anticipated damand of 3500 coins also with wander for scap. Then you could have 10 coins all in the 3200-3600 range. This is a real issue unless something changes soon. That kind of key effect dillution is not going to make for strong super coins.
7317 NLA FOR THE BUCK PROOF AS OF YESTERDAY. >>
JT is in for some real competition. Even if the Pierce and Fillmore to OK, I think that'd just be holding off the inevitable. The 2011s don't look very appealing. Not looking good for supercoins.
I'm going to be watching the future sales to gauge interest in MTL alone.
"According to the US Mint's website, the proof version of the James Buchanan's Liberty First Spouse Gold Coin has sold out. This is very unexpected as the coin has not reached the maximum authorized mintage and has only been available for about five months.
The maximum authorized mintage for the James Buchanan's Liberty coin was set at 15,000 across both the proof and uncirculated versions, with the ratio determined based on customer demand. As of the latest US Mint sales report, sales had reached 7,317 proof coins and 4,461 uncirculated coins, for a combined total of 11,778.
Sales of the James Buchanan's Liberty Gold Coins had been stronger than usual for the series due to the classic depiction of Liberty used on the obverse. The coin also represented the final issue of the "Liberty Subset"
2008 Proof Van Buren’s Liberty Final sales report 7,515.
2010 Proof Buchanan’s Liberty Final sales report 7,317.