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Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>stick a fork in them, they are done. >>

    >>


    the above is the infamous 7over8 quote.

    I keep sticking my fork in them, but my calculations shows: At the rate the Buchanan's are selling...it will take another 49 weeks to sell out.image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Real dealers and other collectors do visit them for purchases.

    They offer everyone the same return policy.


    I was obviously not first this time for the proof lincoln first spouses.





    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    I stand by my words, the fork has been stuck in 'em

  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    7/8 so what are your estimated final mintages? I still stick with both going over the Van Buren mintages which means no short strike. it appears the UNC is already over and the proof is close.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I'm sitting here across from The Mint kiosk at Union Station waiting to attend a business meeting. There is a Buch proof sitting in the case for sale w/more available. I asked him when they went back in stock. He said they were never out of stock. >>



    Ask him about the Lincoln First Spouse.


    They sold a bunch over the weekend and ran out of the Proofs and all but 1 of the uncirc.



    PS Their stock and the online stock are two different things. >>



    MM-

    Sorry, I had to run just after my last post. They were closed when I got back.

    Just as you note, I did see a Lincoln Unc. I did not see a Lincoln Proof, but did not ask whether he had one.

    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>their inventory is separate from the online inventory.
    union station has only 1 lincoln first spouse: an uncirculated.
    online they are readily available. >>



    When buying in person directly from a mint sales outlet, are you allowed to carefully examine any prospective purchases with your 10X magnifying glass? >>



    When I go to either Kiosk - at The Mint or Union - to buy I bring a loupe. I try to go when they are not busy. At such times they've been happy to examine the coins and to let me have my pick - within reason.

    They have a lamp at Union which makes looking the coins over easier.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I stand by my words, the fork has been stuck in 'em >>



    7over8...Have you ever heard of the saying: "My mind is made up, don't confuse me with the facts?"image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Maybe that was put a fork in them, they are done after this latest strike sells out.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I already put a spoon in my state quarters. (Or was it the other way around?) image

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    what facts, OPA?

    do you have some facts to share?

  • We have people that have a long history of being very correct looking into the proof buck issue. We dont know where the coins are going to end up. The highest starting base number less all losses on the proof Buck was 7500 coins based on more than one person that would have first hand info. We also know that a typical scrap rate for west point on proof gold is 5%+++ depending on the design and other issues at the time of striking. So an initial run of 6500-7,000 is expected. We also know that the weekly sales report is orders taken and frequently does not consider returns and order cancelations. The report can read 500 coins high easy and it did so on the vanburen unc just recently.

    One guy thats proved to be very reliable says they might have run more but nothing firm. The other one says no its just left over inventory finally getting over to PB for shipment. If 6500-7000 was the first run range and the sales report can over estimate coins shipped by 500 coins and the report reads 6600 coins right now, how in the heck are we supposed to know much of anything. I dont and it aint for lack of looking and asking those that should know........

    So I would suggest to anyone thats interested to sit back a watch until we know something..... and right we do not have a convergence of data that can help us see the situation with any clarity. When the sales report reads 7500 coins and its still selling then we will know proof bucks will not be great, unless before then some kind person that does know what went on in November at West Point tells the story.


    Eric
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    Looks like our sleepy little Buchanan's haven't woken up yet.

    Buchanan’s Liberty Proof (2010) 6,529 .... 35
    Buchanan’s Liberty Uncirculated (2010) 4,173 .... 31
    Mary Todd Lincoln Proof (2010) 4,336 .... 701
    Mary Todd Lincoln Uncirculated (2010) 2,190 .... 320
  • Comments are conspicuous by their absence.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>what facts, OPA?

    do you have some facts to share? >>



    If you insist:

    Not on back order status...still selling ... latest weekly sales figures ... what else do you need?

    Buchanan’s Liberty Proof (2010) 6,529 .... +35
    Buchanan’s Liberty Uncirculated (2010) 4,173 .... +31

    My question to you is: Why do you still insist that they are done? Where are your facts?
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • Why purchase from the mint at over $840 when you can purchase from other sources and save $$$? The trend is downward on sales from the mint, even after factoring out the first few weeks of selling mania. Done, maybe not, but the market will take over here completely and until it's over, the best bets are PCGS graded MS/PRDCAM 70 First Strikes. These have a long way to go to catch up to the others in the short set when it comes to sales.
    Only a year will tell the whole story.

    Just my biased two cents worth.

    Link
  • Folks, to answer the question of whether a second run of PF Bucks were minted at West Point, where is the WM Mint employee when you need them ? Things sure are unconfirmed from "Our" USM !!
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  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    that's because they are permanently asleep Half.........

    IMO, if you would like to buy a return, 35 people chose to do so last week.
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Latest sales figures for the "stick a fork in them, there done" Buchanan's

    Buchanan’s Liberty Proof (2010) 6,611 + 82
    Buchanan’s Liberty Uncirculated (2010) 4,189 + 16

    slightly better than the week before. image
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    gotta link?

    I can't find them at NN...
    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • OPAOPA Posts: 17,119 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>gotta link?

    I can't find them at NN... >>




    Link
    "Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Latest sales figures for the "stick a fork in them, there done" Buchanan's

    Buchanan’s Liberty Proof (2010) 6,611 + 82
    Buchanan’s Liberty Uncirculated (2010) 4,189 + 16

    slightly better than the week before. image >>


    Doesn't really tell us much, there are too many unknowns.

    Are the latest sales freshly struck or recycled returns? Have the returns been accounted for in the sales figures? Has anyone here ordered and received a Buchanan within the past few weeks?

    The 2008 Van Buren sales figures were static for over a year, then plunged by around 500 each for the proof and uncirculated when "final final" totals were released recently. Could the same thing happen with the Buchanans?

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • How do you guys feel about the Jane Pierce? Still on sale at the mint and the unc. version is below 3k. Has the mint been waiting for these spouses to sell out or have they called lights out on some if they don't sell?

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  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 33,019 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There hasn't been a short strike on one yet.

    They have been letting them run the course.

    It doesn't mean that can't change.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • Seems there are two camps here:

    1. Bought a hoard of 70 graded Van Buren's and hopes that they are the low mintage of the subset.

    2. Bought a hoard of 70 graded Buchanan's and hopes that they are the low mintage of the subset.

    I'm sleeping in the Buchanan camp. Won't know any time soon.

    image


    This is going to be close, I think.
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    I wonder more about the Lincoln, how many they did before next year starts.


  • << <i>I wonder more about the Lincoln, how many they did before next year starts. >>



    Good point. I noticed that too.

    Ain't exactly tearin' it up, are they?
  • I am thinking about buying a Lincoln uncirculated. Can't make up my mind because it is such an ugly coin.
  • illini420illini420 Posts: 11,466 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I am thinking about buying a Lincoln uncirculated. Can't make up my mind because it is such an ugly coin. >>




    You'll have several more months to think about it... don't hurry your decision... it'll never sell out and will undoubtedly be on sale for the full year like the previous dozen issues...
  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    More sleepytime for the spouses.

    Buchanan's Liberty Proof (2010)..... 6,643 ..... 32
    Buchanan's Liberty Uncirculated (2010)..... 4,197 ..... 8
    Mary Todd Lincoln Proof (2010) ..... 4,683 ..... 84
    Mary Todd Lincoln Uncirculated (2010)..... 2,245 ..... (17)
  • It will be interesting to see how this finishes. Do they cut off sales, keep them going. Right now the Bucks are below all others in the Liberty subset.
  • It will be interesting to see if they go back order at 6,800 coins. Problem is there almost certainly are uncalculated returns in the sale report numbers so the report can read 7,000 coins and still come in sub 6800.

    Eric
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    << Right now the Bucks are below all others in the Liberty subset. >>

    Only the proofs are. Van Buren uncirculated is 3826.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • Overall totals for Buchanan spouses are quite a bit less than the Van Buren's.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    Only looking at the Buch Proof boys and girls.

    Get your returns, unless you are pre-occupied with hockey pucks.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Overall totals for Buchanan spouses are quite a bit less than the Van Buren's. >>


    Buchanan = 6643 + 4197 = 10840
    Van Buren = 6803 + 3826 = 10629

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)



  • << <i>

    << <i>Overall totals for Buchanan spouses are quite a bit less than the Van Buren's. >>


    Buchanan = 6643 + 4197 = 10840
    Van Buren = 6803 + 3826 = 10629 >>



    Oops, my bad


  • << <i><< Right now the Bucks are below all others in the Liberty subset. >>

    Only the proofs are. Van Buren uncirculated is 3826. >>



    Hmm...maybe the site I was looking at had not included the returns in their calculations, but it was clearly above the Bucks when I looked at it yesterday. I will try and find the link again and post it here.


  • << <i>

    << <i><< Right now the Bucks are below all others in the Liberty subset. >>

    Only the proofs are. Van Buren uncirculated is 3826. >>



    Hmm...maybe the site I was looking at had not included the returns in their calculations, but it was clearly above the Bucks when I looked at it yesterday. I will try and find the link again and post it here.

    Looks like I may have been correct the first time.

    Link


  • << <i>

    << <i><< Right now the Bucks are below all others in the Liberty subset. >>

    Only the proofs are. Van Buren uncirculated is 3826. >>



    Hmm...maybe the site I was looking at had not included the returns in their calculations, but it was clearly above the Bucks when I looked at it yesterday. I will try and find the link again and post it here.

    Looks like I may have been correct the first time.

    Link >>



    You can refer to a few pages back. Eric reported the final final mintage for Van Buren Unc, which is 3826.
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  • HalfStrikeHalfStrike Posts: 2,202 ✭✭✭
    The unc coins over multiple issues should outperform the proofs, not sure why everyone is stalking the proofs.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    cause they're perrrty
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 7,007 ✭✭✭✭✭
    There is much more *collector* demand for the proofs, as demonstrated by initial sales and final mintages of virtually all commems. Most of the demand for recent uncirculated First Spouse coins is speculative, due to the very low mintages (which were caused by low collector demand during the Mint's ordering period).

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)



  • << <i>

    You can refer to a few pages back. Eric reported the final final mintage for Van Buren Unc, which is 3826. >>



    It's not altogether unthinkable that the Bucks could come in at the same number or just below the Van Burens once the final tally is completed. Especially on the proof side where there were many reported frost breaks and returns. Only time will tell. Either way they'll be right in the range of the Jackson and Van Burens. So on balance the subset is still a relatively rare one all the way around, sans the Jefferson.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Just ordered a couple more Buch proofs. Thus, given the I have a few, they will NEVER be the keys....
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • HIGHLOWLEAVESHIGHLOWLEAVES Posts: 785 ✭✭✭
    Anymore more thoughts as to the USM striking more Buch Proofs? Happy New Year !!
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  • mbogomanmbogoman Posts: 5,182 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Anymore more thoughts as to the USM striking more Buch Proofs? >>



    They can't. We just turned the page to 2011. No more striking of 2010 dated coins. Whatever has been struck - that's it. No mas, nada, finito!
  • Now we wait...image
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Is anyone buying any more Buch. Proofs??
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    IMO, the Buch proofs have been struck to ~6800 pieces.

    Given that there were issues with the striking (frost breaks, returns, etc) the expectation is the coins final numbers will be in the low 6000's.

    We wait to see. I feel confident to speak about these, as it is 2011 and the USM can strike no more.

    The Liberty subset is now complete, the low mintage proof should be the Buchanan. Most secondaries dont have ample supplies of these (from my quick investigation), so when the promotion comes for the Liberty subset in Proof - watch these fly.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,805 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Any updated Buch proof numbers?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!

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