So if the return rate was so high and assuming they did less than the VB proof, why didn't they strike more in November?
I think something in not being reported correctly [unintentionally]. The mint would not strike boatload of unc coins and leave the proofs very low with 10 months left of sales, makes no sense. BTW dealers have been known to be wrong on an odd occasion, it happens. And the buch proof are still available from the mint website, dealers can orders to their hearts content right now.
PS The mint sells returns, this in not the end of sales. If it was the end and they had high returns I would agree.
I believe the Buchanan has a *much* higher number of PR70 First Strikes than the Van Buren.
MS70 and PR70 First Strikes are somewhat of a separate category for the First Spouse series. A low population in this grade can result in a dramatically higher price, even if the coin itself is relatively more common. >>
Yeah, I looked it up. The pop of Buch PR70 FS on the PCGS registry is 4x the Van Buren PR70 FS population.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
It seems to me that those who believe in the short strike theory are in part basing that on a belief that the Mint cannot strike these coins in a year following their issue. I looked at the legislation and found no restrictions for doing so. I am no lawyer and I may have missed it but I challenge anyone to show this requirement in law.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
the USM could enact legislation to do so - dated 2011. they have not and will not produce any coin with a prior year date (save for the circulating coin shortage in the mid 1960's)
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes.
I have wondered about that. But I see no reason why they'd want to strike more with their busy production schedule and the fact that the Buchs weren't selling well before people starting buying solely for the reason they expect an imminent sellout.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
<< <i>the USM could enact legislation to do so - dated 2011. they have not and will not produce any coin with a prior year date (save for the circulating coin shortage in the mid 1960's)
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes. >>
If they only struck 1 run of Buch proofs, then we could sell out at any time.
I wish they would have inventory levels in this case...
and as I type that I think "maybe the 1-800" people have that info.
<< <i>the USM could enact legislation to do so - dated 2011. they have not and will not produce any coin with a prior year date (save for the circulating coin shortage in the mid 1960's)
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes. >>
If they only struck 1 run of Buch proofs, then we could sell out at any time.
I wish they would have inventory levels in this case...
and as I type that I think "maybe the 1-800" people have that info.
I just don't see them running relatively large runs on these coins in one batch. If they did get burned on 85000 extra UHR's you would think they would be smart and not produce too many Spouses up front, tying up valuable gold until sold. Sure with gold going up they are safe but if it went down they would take a bath. If they can control how many they make and they produce to an anticipated demand up front then why not state exactly how many will be sold like they are doing with the ATB pucks instead of placing a limit? If I were doing these I would not crank out more than 500 per run after the first month and wait and see what demand was.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!!
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that. >>
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that. >>
<< While the least minted coin is likely to bring the most return, people will still be scrambling to buy this set. The Jackson, Van Buren and the Buchanan will all do well. Some will just do better than others. So what? All will be winners to a degree. The spread between them could be insignificant. Just make sure you have PCGS graded 70's, otherwise it will be mostly bullion values. >>
Two raw unc. Van Burens recently went for $1287 and $1317 plus shipping on eBay. More like double bullion values.
<< <i><< While the least minted coin is likely to bring the most return, people will still be scrambling to buy this set. The Jackson, Van Buren and the Buchanan will all do well. Some will just do better than others. So what? All will be winners to a degree. The spread between them could be insignificant. Just make sure you have PCGS graded 70's, otherwise it will be mostly bullion values. >>
Two raw unc. Van Burens recently went for $1287 and $1317 plus shipping on eBay. More like double bullion values. >>
My mistake. I do believe raw coins are still in demand. I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". To me, raw coins still have potential; you just have to decide if the coin is a possible 70. Something about untouched in this case is appealing.
<< <i>It seems to me that those who believe in the short strike theory are in part basing that on a belief that the Mint cannot strike these coins in a year following their issue. I looked at the legislation and found no restrictions for doing so. I am no lawyer and I may have missed it but I challenge anyone to show this requirement in law.[/q
Answer:
Its policy. I am not aware of a statute that does not allow the striking of say back dated silver or gold coinage for these programs. They just dont. For example nothing stops the mint from striking and selling the Ultra High Relief Gold this year and next year but they will not because they said it would be a one year program. Policy........
And remember guys the Mint has been told to strike these Hag coins by congress and they do, but dont think that an expensive, low margin, dog product like the generic First Hags have anyones attention or cares enough to ask for an exception for these coins. They will not be striking anymore of these coins. Go worry about something else, world peace or whatever.......
<< I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". >>
An MS69 or PR69 Van Buren will bring a substantial premium over melt. Check the latest Greysheet. And raw coins are fetching prices over $1200 each despite the ease with which 69s can be cracked out and returned to their original capsule and box.
Well, I don't think it is really about winning or losing. I an not "betting" against the Buchs. On the contrary I am hoping they do get short struck since I own some. To me it is about understanding how the Mint works better. If I am wrong I will only be smarter. But, I still think halfstrike needs a loyal sychophant in need of a kleenex to even things out here.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I told you guys a month ago that the Vanburen Mint state issue is going to get very expensive when they were around for $1100-$1250 each. I think its going to be the king of all Liberty set issues and by extension all mint state First Hags. It is an infant super coin. Strong hands are already absorbing inventory on the 4 coin unc lib set. Can you hear Jackie Robinson calling in the distance?
The only question left is what is going to be the king of proof Liberty issues and generic fist hags. If 7/8s data is right (and I have reasons that I cant print that I think he likley is) and the proofs bucks come in the 6700-6800 range after Final Finals come out then you better have some. We have had a good run over the last 4 years and and most of them could be and to a large degree were foreseen. That some crazy low mintages for the FS program have shown up after the 4th issue was also foreseen. Guys the new model is with the Mint if you cant sell at least 1 percent of total volume (seems to express itself as at least 10,000+ coins) then dont produce it unless required by law. There is no money in very low volume coins and inventory turn over is bad. Furthermore every body and their brother is watching for very low mintage first hags after seeing the Julia go nuts. We have seen the bottom and with it the end of new opportunity.
The point is this. The super coins what we have seen of which the low mintage classic design gold liberty issues are one are coming to an end for a while. The things that created the great issues of the last 4 year are gone. Too many fractional issues, shortage of planchets, sky high scrap rates, and an interest in producing them are fading from the scene. We may see some 25th anniversary issues from the mint but they are all going to 10,000+++++++++ mintage issues.
Guys IF there is going to be a great coin this year the proof Gold Buck IS the ONLY HOPE left. The proof Bucks fate is not certain yet but its the only shot I can even see for years. Mintages in the range we like them in big series are not going to be gracing us with their presence like they have. As the market looks at the mintage data trends over the next 5 years the 2,000-9,000 mintage super keys we have been able to pick up are going to look like tha grand canyon in the mintage charts.
So what are you going to buy? Great moderns at 3-4 times melt or issue price from the 2006-2008 period? Are the 2008 W every things going to get much more expensive going forward? I think so. I think based on my models that many are going to move into the 3,000-$5,000 each range in 2010 constant dollars. Problem is thats a current buy price of 3 times melt....... So what do we buy? What have we been buying for the last 4 years? Coins with uncertain futures that have good structures that look like they have a shot a being low mintage from the Mint at 1.1 to 1.2 times melt. Then the news comes out when they go black and the market comes in and drives them to 2-3 time melt less than a year. So what have I done?
I am holding onto as much of the killer 2006-2008 material as I can afford and buying proof gold bucks. I am absorbing almost no risk on the Bucks. If the coins turn out to be 8,500 mintage "dogs" then I am out about 25-30 percent max..... thats if everything including the price of the metal goes wrong. If they turn out to be 7,000 or less mintage coins then my limited funds got on the last good gold train out for US Proof Gold that I can see going forward. Its true that oppotunity knocks more than once but not always in the same market in the same way. If this coin does not pan out (and it may not) then I dont see any good opportunities for years.
Right, so let's have a little trip down memory lane. So far we have discussed many coins here, and I think this pretty much sums things up.
4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't 4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right
Out of 25 coins I only see 3 right so far, that is not a very good track record. If this was baseball you wouldn't even make T-ball, on coin calls it is terrible beyond belief.
Now look, message boards are suppose to be fun and so I won't dwell on this and I won't bring this bad track record up again because to me what matters is where I put my money, and that has been on the right side of those calls. But I have to laugh when they keep claiming somehow they always made the right call when all along you can see what it was. The big secret here is the mint gave us the buying opportunity of a lifetime and at mint issue price graded PCGS many of these coins have sold and will sell for triple or more prices so anyone that did buy has done well, even if they only picked three right. As far as being on the losing side, Puleeze. 3 out of 24, hello?
Right, so let's have a little trip down memory lane. So far we have discussed many coins here, and I think this pretty much sums things up.
4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't 4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better 5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right
Out of 25 coins I only see 3 right so far, that is not a very good track record. If this was baseball you wouldn't even make T-ball, on coin calls it is terrible beyond belief.
Now look, message boards are suppose to be fun and so I won't dwell on this and I won't bring this bad track record up again because to me what matters is where I put my money, and that has been on the right side of those calls. But I have to laugh when they keep claiming somehow they always made the right call when all along you can see what it was. The big secret here is the mint gave us the buying opportunity of a lifetime and at mint issue price graded PCGS many of these coins have sold and will sell for triple or more prices so anyone that did buy has done well, even if they only picked three right. As far as being on the losing side, Puleeze. 3 out of 24, hello? >>
Right you are again.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Guys IF there is going to be a great coin this year the proof Gold Buck IS the ONLY HOPE left. The proof Bucks fate is not certain yet but its the only shot I can even see for years. Mintages in the range we like them in big series are not going to be gracing us with their presence like they have. As the market looks at the mintage data trends over the next 5 years the 2,000-9,000 mintage super keys we have been able to pick up are going to look like tha grand canyon in the mintage charts.
What about the pucks? I know they have higher mintages but also seem to have a larger following.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I love how you twist words. Here is my official response.
<< <i>4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better------said plat Unc RARER, called the top, and said to "get out" and keep what you want for your collection. 4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better--------said plat Unc RARER, called the top, and said to "get out" and keep what you want for your collection. 4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't----------3 out of 4 isnt bad. 4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better------------said plat Unc RARER, and it absolutely is. 5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version-----------I bought these, and profited, and now watch them fall in price. Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia------------Never made the call on this one at all. Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out-----------Never made the call on this one either. Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale------------Never called for purchases of the Unc Buch Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right-------------Will be proven correct, this will be the key of the prf Lib subset.
>>
So, in tallying the results, by the way - you forgot the correct calls on the 2006 Plats and Gold Sets, the correct calls on the mintage levels of 2008-w Unc Plats, and the correct calls on the mintage levels of the 2008-W Proof 1 oz Buffs.......which I may say you were dead wrong on ALL those mintage calls.
So, again, tallying the results, looks like i'm doing ok.
By the way, I purchased EVERY one of the issues above, except for the Letita, Julia, Buch Unc.
Half, please be truthful and do not have a "selective" memory.
Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like a bad gamble to pick up a few proof Buchs. There's not much to lose if they end up being dogs. For those of you buying proof Buchs, are you buying USM strikes or slabs, or both?
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If one buys off message board advice (any message board ... be it for coins, stocks, beanie babies, etc.) without doing one's own homework, those folks have no one to blame but themselves. It is critical to DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK whether you are buying moderns or classics. Now having said that, I personally believe Eric (and some others) try to give sincere advice here. But, this is certainly not the place for "blind faith". Put the effort in to become an advanced collector of your series of choice and you will generally not need anyone's advice in most of your buying or selling decisions in my view.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
By the way, I purchased EVERY one of the issues above, except for the Letita, Julia, Buch Unc.
Ouch. You missed some of the good ones. On the 2008 W Buffs, how do you know what the "top" is on an immature set. Even if it retraced a bit like many others I think that set has holding power long term. Also, with platinum dropping so bad didn't the Buffs hold up better than plats?
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". >>
An MS69 or PR69 Van Buren will bring a substantial premium over melt. Check the latest Greysheet. And raw coins are fetching prices over $1200 each despite the ease with which 69s can be cracked out and returned to their original capsule and box. >>
As indicated, a raw coin appeals to me, whether or not cracked out, more than a lower grade, as long as I didn't pay premium for the grade nor did the cracking. It's a preference. As in untouched. If I don't know better, then my ignorance is bliss. May I always be blissful. It is just because I don't want them guaranteed less than "perfect". I'm OCD that way.
<< <i>Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like a bad gamble to pick up a few proof Buchs. There's not much to lose if they end up being dogs. For those of you buying proof Buchs, are you buying USM strikes or slabs, or both? >>
PCGS First Strike PR70 DCAM. The spread over all others marketed will only extrapolate as time passes. IMHO
<< <i>If this coin does not pan out (and it may not) then I dont see any good opportunities for years. >>
In all seriousness, and I'm sure we'll here the jokes, but joking aside
how do you think Eleanor Roosevelt will do in a relative fashion?
supplementary question: what about loss of First Spouse collector base? do you think we'll see lower lows in a couple of years due to collector base loss?
proof buff-said plat Unc RARER, called the top, and said to "get out" and keep what you want for your collection.
Gee if you kept telling people to sell every week like you did of coarse you hit the top. You also said to sell in the middle and the bottom and everything in between starting right after the coins went off sale. You said everything except for when to buy to begin with, and this whole discussion was about what to buy and when to buy, not when to sell.
Anyway that is just one example but I will not go over the rest, it was only 3 out of 24. If anyone wants to see what was said about the buch coins they can go to the first page here and see a sell out was expected the first week due to a short strike, and here we are over three months later, they struck more coins and all are still for sale. That's Ok as I give the benefit on the proof as sales are still not over the VB enough yet but the UNC coin is toast.
As of today if anyone wanted my advice I would say if you had $1000 to buy a coin then don't buy a buch proof but buy a ATB 5 oz set on Tuesday for $930, flip it if you want for $2000 and then buy two buch proofs if you really want these or better yet buy a VB unc and get the real deal. These buch proofs could need a rocking chair for the wait of a sellout if it happens.
PS 7/8 you also claimed only 3500 unc buch coins to be struck. Way way off on that one but let's not remember it.
The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea.
It doesnt take much of a prediction to advise to buy 5oz pucks for 930.
Who wouldn't? Everyone and their brother is in that game. However, I think your problem is holding the item waaaaay to long after you acquire. That was your issue with the 08-w Buffalo's. That is a common problem for those who haven't been in this game very long. There are only a few coins in the 08-w Buffalo stable that warrant holding for long term. Do you know which one's they are???
Hold only what you want for your collection if you don't know which coins have investment potential going forward. If you are a flipper, flip and move on -deploy your money into the next issue.
How about this - I'll give Halfstrike the inside scoop for his next prediction!!!!! Buy the numismatic version pucks fom the USM!!!! Ooohhhh!!!! You can take the credit for that one.
I will say one thing that I think is a bad comparison. Those who compare these pucks to the demand and performance of the 95-W ASE Proof are totally off base. There is NOWHERE near the level of collectors for these pucks as there was/is for the ASE's. What you see is totally driven by a constriction of supply from AP's, period. I dont know what the collector demand is currently, but I dont think it's anywhere near what we think and what is going on with the prices of these sets. This is a flipper's dream right now, whoever is acquiring these for more than issue without the intention on moving them for more $$ is out of their minds at this level.
BTW, the initial run of Buch's was thought to be 3500 unc. Demand pouring in for the Unc, the USM struck more Unc's. We think to the tune of 3000 more coins, but, who knows exactly how many more.
Did you notice how quiet this thread got around November thru late December? Why chance a run on available proofs, when the potential existed to strike more? The outcome? We believe they didnt strike more. Hence the short struck proof coin, IMO < 6800 pieces, and sales/order numbers screwed up from early mega-returns because of striking related issues. The sales numbers will be adjusted, and I am of the same opinion as EricJ - by at least 10%.
Why dont you put your effort into decifering where some of these issues will go in the next 60 days, 6 months, 1 year? Develop the statistical model. Form your opinion based on prior experiences, the typical USM planning that goes into these issues, etc.
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while.
There is only one way to end this Pi$$ing contest - we've already suffered through the jaw-flapping trash talk ad nauseum, so...let's get ready to rrrrrRRRRRUMBLE!!!!!
Halfstrike vs. 7over8...
three rounds, Marquis of Queensbury rules,
neutral site (Vegas PCGS Collector's Only show???, Long Beach???),
using 16 oz. gloves and headgear so nobody gets hurt. Winner gets glory, loser zips keyboard.
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while. >>
Those who've paid over $4K for a Julia MS70FS are taking a big risk IMHO.
<< <i>Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like a bad gamble to pick up a few proof Buchs. There's not much to lose if they end up being dogs. For those of you buying proof Buchs, are you buying USM strikes or slabs, or both? >>
the forum is a great place to share opinions and views on various coinage issues.
if you sit back and think about it, if you bought every precious metal coin offering from the mint, even in the last 5 years, you would be doing very well.
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while. >>
Those who've paid over $4K for a Julia MS70FS are taking a big risk IMHO. >>
When I said that I was thinking 3,000 as an order of magnitude. Tylers may hang on as shallow keys but there is going to be a lot of company in the 3,xxx s obviously.
the forum is a great place to share opinions and views on various coinage issues.
if you sit back and think about it, if you bought every precious metal coin offering from the mint, even in the last 5 years, you would be doing very well.
Comments
I think something in not being reported correctly [unintentionally]. The mint would not strike boatload of unc coins and leave the proofs very low with 10 months left of sales, makes no sense. BTW dealers have been known to be wrong on an odd occasion, it happens. And the buch proof are still available from the mint website, dealers can orders to their hearts content right now.
PS The mint sells returns, this in not the end of sales. If it was the end and they had high returns I would agree.
to answer your question "why didnt they strike more"
answer-----there was no demand for more.
just like eric has said, all indications from people in the know state there wasnt ANY MORE STRIKINGS of BUCH PRF after the INITIAL STRIKING.
now I know you are h&ll bent on proving your logic that this coin will not be short struck......
i think the odds are now stacked against you, best to make sure you have a few of these BUCH PROOFS in your inventory
<< <i>
I believe the Buchanan has a *much* higher number of PR70 First Strikes than the Van Buren.
MS70 and PR70 First Strikes are somewhat of a separate category for the First Spouse series. A low population in this grade can result in a dramatically higher price, even if the coin itself is relatively more common. >>
Yeah, I looked it up. The pop of Buch PR70 FS on the PCGS registry is 4x the Van Buren PR70 FS population.
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes.
<< <i>the USM could enact legislation to do so - dated 2011. they have not and will not produce any coin with a prior year date (save for the circulating coin shortage in the mid 1960's)
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes. >>
If they only struck 1 run of Buch proofs, then we could sell out at any time.
I wish they would have inventory levels in this case...
and as I type that I think "maybe the 1-800" people have that info.
anyone care to call?
<< <i>
<< <i>the USM could enact legislation to do so - dated 2011. they have not and will not produce any coin with a prior year date (save for the circulating coin shortage in the mid 1960's)
but why would they?
the demand in october and november for buch proofs was non existant.
in december, the usm had better things to do than strike a few more proofs when there was no demand.
the makings of a short struck coin - right before your eyes. >>
If they only struck 1 run of Buch proofs, then we could sell out at any time.
I wish they would have inventory levels in this case...
and as I type that I think "maybe the 1-800" people have that info.
anyone care to call? >>
"we don't have that info"
wow.
talk about secrecy.
and not about the first spouses.
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!!
<< <i>Halfstrike,
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that.
<< <i>
<< <i>Halfstrike,
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that.
LMAO
<< <i>
<< <i>Halfstrike,
I appreciate your input, it is good to play Devils Advocate. In this case I think that what Eric and 7over8 have stated makes more sense and the logic behind their arguments appears to be more sound. But never the less thank you for pointing out some things that some of us would overlook.
I guess time will tell who is right and who is wrong, but my money right now is on 7over8 and Eric!!! >>
Halfstrike, I don't know you but since I am nearly invisible on this board I would like to volunteer to by your sycophantic yes-man like MMR is for 7/8. I mean we need to even the team here. I know you don't need the help but I need a job. So, if I am here I will do that.
so be it coin - up to you.
Two raw unc. Van Burens recently went for $1287 and $1317 plus shipping on eBay. More like double bullion values.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i><< While the least minted coin is likely to bring the most return, people will still be scrambling to buy this set. The Jackson, Van Buren and the Buchanan will all do well. Some will just do better than others. So what? All will be winners to a degree. The spread between them could be insignificant. Just make sure you have PCGS graded 70's, otherwise it will be mostly bullion values. >>
Two raw unc. Van Burens recently went for $1287 and $1317 plus shipping on eBay. More like double bullion values. >>
My mistake. I do believe raw coins are still in demand. I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". To me, raw coins still have potential; you just have to decide if the coin is a possible 70. Something about untouched in this case is appealing.
<< <i>It seems to me that those who believe in the short strike theory are in part basing that on a belief that the Mint cannot strike these coins in a year following their issue. I looked at the legislation and found no restrictions for doing so. I am no lawyer and I may have missed it but I challenge anyone to show this requirement in law.[/q
Answer:
Its policy. I am not aware of a statute that does not allow the striking of say back dated silver or gold coinage for these programs. They just dont. For example nothing stops the mint from striking and selling the Ultra High Relief Gold this year and next year but they will not because they said it would be a one year program. Policy........
And remember guys the Mint has been told to strike these Hag coins by congress and they do, but dont think that an expensive, low margin, dog product like the generic First Hags have anyones attention or cares enough to ask for an exception for these coins. They will not be striking anymore of these coins. Go worry about something else, world peace or whatever.......
<< <i>I looked on realized sales and cannot find the coins you mention, maybe I am not searching with the right key words
Here and here.
<< I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". >>
An MS69 or PR69 Van Buren will bring a substantial premium over melt. Check the latest Greysheet. And raw coins are fetching prices over $1200 each despite the ease with which 69s can be cracked out and returned to their original capsule and box.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
All I want is whirled peas!
>>
<< <i>aligning yourself with a losing strategy?
so be it coin - up to you. >>
Well, I don't think it is really about winning or losing. I an not "betting" against the Buchs. On the contrary I am hoping they do get short struck since I own some. To me it is about understanding how the Mint works better. If I am wrong I will only be smarter. But, I still think halfstrike needs a loyal sychophant in need of a kleenex to even things out here.
The only question left is what is going to be the king of proof Liberty issues and generic fist hags. If 7/8s data is right (and I have reasons that I cant print that I think he likley is) and the proofs bucks come in the 6700-6800 range after Final Finals come out then you better have some. We have had a good run over the last 4 years and and most of them could be and to a large degree were foreseen. That some crazy low mintages for the FS program have shown up after the 4th issue was also foreseen. Guys the new model is with the Mint if you cant sell at least 1 percent of total volume (seems to express itself as at least 10,000+ coins) then dont produce it unless required by law. There is no money in very low volume coins and inventory turn over is bad. Furthermore every body and their brother is watching for very low mintage first hags after seeing the Julia go nuts. We have seen the bottom and with it the end of new opportunity.
The point is this. The super coins what we have seen of which the low mintage classic design gold liberty issues are one are coming to an end for a while. The things that created the great issues of the last 4 year are gone. Too many fractional issues, shortage of planchets, sky high scrap rates, and an interest in producing them are fading from the scene. We may see some 25th anniversary issues from the mint but they are all going to 10,000+++++++++ mintage issues.
Guys IF there is going to be a great coin this year the proof Gold Buck IS the ONLY HOPE left. The proof Bucks fate is not certain yet but its the only shot I can even see for years. Mintages in the range we like them in big series are not going to be gracing us with their presence like they have. As the market looks at the mintage data trends over the next 5 years the 2,000-9,000 mintage super keys we have been able to pick up are going to look like tha grand canyon in the mintage charts.
So what are you going to buy? Great moderns at 3-4 times melt or issue price from the 2006-2008 period? Are the 2008 W every things going to get much more expensive going forward? I think so. I think based on my models that many are going to move into the 3,000-$5,000 each range in 2010 constant dollars. Problem is thats a current buy price of 3 times melt....... So what do we buy? What have we been buying for the last 4 years? Coins with uncertain futures that have good structures that look like they have a shot a being low mintage from the Mint at 1.1 to 1.2 times melt. Then the news comes out when they go black and the market comes in and drives them to 2-3 time melt less than a year. So what have I done?
I am holding onto as much of the killer 2006-2008 material as I can afford and buying proof gold bucks. I am absorbing almost no risk on the Bucks. If the coins turn out to be 8,500 mintage "dogs" then I am out about 25-30 percent max..... thats if everything including the price of the metal goes wrong. If they turn out to be 7,000 or less mintage coins then my limited funds got on the last good gold train out for US Proof Gold that I can see going forward. Its true that oppotunity knocks more than once but not always in the same market in the same way. If this coin does not pan out (and it may not) then I dont see any good opportunities for years.
Best Wishes,
Eric
<< <i>aligning yourself with a losing strategy?
so be it coin - up to you. >>
Right, so let's have a little trip down memory lane. So far we have discussed many coins here, and I think this pretty much sums things up.
4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't
4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version
Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia
Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out
Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale
Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right
Out of 25 coins I only see 3 right so far, that is not a very good track record.
Now look, message boards are suppose to be fun and so I won't dwell on this and I won't bring this bad track record up again because to me what matters is where I put my money, and that has been on the right side of those calls. But I have to laugh when they keep claiming somehow they always made the right call when all along you can see what it was. The big secret here is the mint gave us the buying opportunity of a lifetime and at mint issue price graded PCGS many of these coins have sold and will sell for triple or more prices so anyone that did buy has done well, even if they only picked three right. As far as being on the losing side, Puleeze. 3 out of 24, hello?
<< <i>
<< <i>aligning yourself with a losing strategy?
so be it coin - up to you. >>
Right, so let's have a little trip down memory lane. So far we have discussed many coins here, and I think this pretty much sums things up.
4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't
4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better
5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version
Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia
Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out
Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale
Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right
Out of 25 coins I only see 3 right so far, that is not a very good track record.
Now look, message boards are suppose to be fun and so I won't dwell on this and I won't bring this bad track record up again because to me what matters is where I put my money, and that has been on the right side of those calls. But I have to laugh when they keep claiming somehow they always made the right call when all along you can see what it was. The big secret here is the mint gave us the buying opportunity of a lifetime and at mint issue price graded PCGS many of these coins have sold and will sell for triple or more prices so anyone that did buy has done well, even if they only picked three right. As far as being on the losing side, Puleeze. 3 out of 24, hello? >>
Right you are again.
What about the pucks? I know they have higher mintages but also seem to have a larger following.
I love how you twist words. Here is my official response.
<< <i>4 proof buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better------said plat Unc RARER, called the top, and said to "get out" and keep what you want for your collection.
4 unc buffalo 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better--------said plat Unc RARER, called the top, and said to "get out" and keep what you want for your collection.
4 unc W plat 2008 coins - On 3 right, 1 wrong 3 came in lower than 2006, 1 didn't----------3 out of 4 isnt bad.
4 proof plat 2008 coins - You wrong all 4 said Plat unc better------------said plat Unc RARER, and it absolutely is.
5 ATB 5 oz bullion coins - Wrong all 5 - Said passing on these for Collector version-----------I bought these, and profited, and now watch them fall in price.
Letita Tyler spouse unc coin - Wrong call Missed the Julia------------Never made the call on this one at all.
Julia Tyler spouce unc coin - Wrong call Didn't even know it was selling out-----------Never made the call on this one either.
Buch unc spouse coin - Wrong call Sales well over VB coin, still for sale------------Never called for purchases of the Unc Buch
Buch proof spouse coin - STBD but sales look to be over VB proof, could be another wrong or right-------------Will be proven correct, this will be the key of the prf Lib subset.
>>
So, in tallying the results, by the way - you forgot the correct calls on the 2006 Plats and Gold Sets, the correct calls on the mintage levels of 2008-w Unc Plats, and the correct calls on the mintage levels of the 2008-W Proof 1 oz Buffs.......which I may say you were dead wrong on ALL those mintage calls.
So, again, tallying the results, looks like i'm doing ok.
By the way, I purchased EVERY one of the issues above, except for the Letita, Julia, Buch Unc.
Half, please be truthful and do not have a "selective" memory.
Wondercoin
Ouch. You missed some of the good ones. On the 2008 W Buffs, how do you know what the "top" is on an immature set. Even if it retraced a bit like many others I think that set has holding power long term. Also, with platinum dropping so bad didn't the Buffs hold up better than plats?
<< <i>
<< <i>I looked on realized sales and cannot find the coins you mention, maybe I am not searching with the right key words
Here and here.
<< I wouldn't want to pay for a 69 or less; guaranteed not "perfect". >>
An MS69 or PR69 Van Buren will bring a substantial premium over melt. Check the latest Greysheet. And raw coins are fetching prices over $1200 each despite the ease with which 69s can be cracked out and returned to their original capsule and box. >>
As indicated, a raw coin appeals to me, whether or not cracked out, more than a lower grade, as long as I didn't pay premium for the grade nor did the cracking. It's a preference. As in untouched.
If I don't know better, then my ignorance is bliss. May I always be blissful.
It is just because I don't want them guaranteed less than "perfect". I'm OCD that way.
<< <i>Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like a bad gamble to pick up a few proof Buchs. There's not much to lose if they end up being dogs. For those of you buying proof Buchs, are you buying USM strikes or slabs, or both? >>
PCGS First Strike PR70 DCAM. The spread over all others marketed will only extrapolate as time passes.
IMHO
<< <i>If this coin does not pan out (and it may not) then I dont see any good opportunities for years. >>
In all seriousness, and
I'm sure we'll here the jokes, but
joking aside
how do you think Eleanor Roosevelt will do in a relative fashion?
supplementary question: what about loss of First Spouse collector base? do you think we'll see lower lows in a couple of years due to collector base loss?
<< <i>...how do you think Eleanor Roosevelt will do in a relative fashion? >>
Short strike due to the dies constantly breaking.
Yuck. Will we have to clean that up?
Gee if you kept telling people to sell every week like you did of coarse you hit the top. You also said to sell in the middle and the bottom and everything in between starting right after the coins went off sale. You said everything except for when to buy to begin with, and this whole discussion was about what to buy and when to buy, not when to sell.
Anyway that is just one example but I will not go over the rest, it was only 3 out of 24. If anyone wants to see what was said about the buch coins they can go to the first page here and see a sell out was expected the first week due to a short strike, and here we are over three months later, they struck more coins and all are still for sale. That's Ok as I give the benefit on the proof as sales are still not over the VB enough yet but the UNC coin is toast.
As of today if anyone wanted my advice I would say if you had $1000 to buy a coin then don't buy a buch proof but buy a ATB 5 oz set on Tuesday for $930, flip it if you want for $2000 and then buy two buch proofs if you really want these or better yet buy a VB unc and get the real deal. These buch proofs could need a rocking chair for the wait of a sellout if it happens.
PS 7/8 you also claimed only 3500 unc buch coins to be struck. Way way off on that one but let's not remember it.
It doesnt take much of a prediction to advise to buy 5oz pucks for 930.
Who wouldn't? Everyone and their brother is in that game. However, I think your problem is holding the item waaaaay to long after you acquire. That was your issue with the 08-w Buffalo's. That is a common problem for those who haven't been in this game very long. There are only a few coins in the 08-w Buffalo stable that warrant holding for long term. Do you know which one's they are???
Hold only what you want for your collection if you don't know which coins have investment potential going forward. If you are a flipper, flip and move on -deploy your money into the next issue.
How about this - I'll give Halfstrike the inside scoop for his next prediction!!!!! Buy the numismatic version pucks fom the USM!!!! Ooohhhh!!!! You can take the credit for that one.
I will say one thing that I think is a bad comparison. Those who compare these pucks to the demand and performance of the 95-W ASE Proof are totally off base. There is NOWHERE near the level of collectors for these pucks as there was/is for the ASE's. What you see is totally driven by a constriction of supply from AP's, period. I dont know what the collector demand is currently, but I dont think it's anywhere near what we think and what is going on with the prices of these sets. This is a flipper's dream right now, whoever is acquiring these for more than issue without the intention on moving them for more $$ is out of their minds at this level.
BTW, the initial run of Buch's was thought to be 3500 unc. Demand pouring in for the Unc, the USM struck more Unc's. We think to the tune of 3000 more coins, but, who knows exactly how many more.
Did you notice how quiet this thread got around November thru late December? Why chance a run on available proofs, when the potential existed to strike more? The outcome? We believe they didnt strike more. Hence the short struck proof coin, IMO < 6800 pieces, and sales/order numbers screwed up from early mega-returns because of striking related issues. The sales numbers will be adjusted, and I am of the same opinion as EricJ - by at least 10%.
Why dont you put your effort into decifering where some of these issues will go in the next 60 days, 6 months, 1 year? Develop the statistical model. Form your opinion based on prior experiences, the typical USM planning that goes into these issues, etc.
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while.
Halfstrike vs. 7over8...
three rounds, Marquis of Queensbury rules,
neutral site (Vegas PCGS Collector's Only show???, Long Beach???),
using 16 oz. gloves and headgear so nobody gets hurt. Winner gets glory, loser zips keyboard.
The only question is, what do we call it?
mbogoman
https://pcgs.com/setregistry/collectors-showcase/classic-issues-colonials-through-1964/zambezi-collection-trade-dollars/7345Asesabi Lutho
<< <i>
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while. >>
Those who've paid over $4K for a Julia MS70FS are taking a big risk IMHO.
clearly the issue here is he who actually explains and supports their opinion fully, and is willing to take the lumps (fairly) along with it
vs.
he who is the monday morning quarterback, and only reviews others opinions and comments after the fact
<< <i>Given the evidence, it doesn't seem like a bad gamble to pick up a few proof Buchs. There's not much to lose if they end up being dogs. For those of you buying proof Buchs, are you buying USM strikes or slabs, or both? >>
I bought from The Mint.
the forum is a great place to share opinions and views on various coinage issues.
if you sit back and think about it, if you bought every precious metal coin offering from the mint, even in the last 5 years, you would be doing very well.
thats the "buy everything" strategy
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The spouses are locked down for at least the next two years with largely irrelevant historical subjects. Very much depends on the gold price. High gold coupled with homely ladies equals a threat to the Tylers, IMO. $1650 gold puts unc spouses right at $1000 ea. >>
I agree. I think the uncs are going to run along at around 3,000 for a while. >>
Those who've paid over $4K for a Julia MS70FS are taking a big risk IMHO. >>
When I said that I was thinking 3,000 as an order of magnitude. Tylers may hang on as shallow keys but there is going to be a lot of company in the 3,xxx s obviously.
<< <i>all kidding aside
the forum is a great place to share opinions and views on various coinage issues.
if you sit back and think about it, if you bought every precious metal coin offering from the mint, even in the last 5 years, you would be doing very well.
thats the "buy everything" strategy
900