It is too early in the year for the Mint not to consider minting more of the 2013 gold. Of course, since this is the US Mint we are talking about, anything is possible. But more likely than not, IMO, there will be more minted.
Having only been out for approx. 6 weeks I think that it is very unlikely that the 2013 W $50 AGE Unc is done. There is certainly no run on these on FeeBay as is usually the case when a low mintage issue goes dark - yet another indication that people don't think that it's done. Of course, as others have said, who knows. If that was it (very doubtful I think) it would beat the '12 W substantially. Anyway, not selling my 12 Ws right now to be sure. Will be fun to watch.
It may also mean they're gearing toward 2013 Reverse Proof Buffalo "mint to demand" campaign?
Or to feed the conspiracy theories from PM forum there is a shortage of 1 oz blanks to mint these? Keep in mind they are not mandated to satisfy demand for these "collector" items but may need to concentrate on "bullion" AGEs
<< <i>It may also mean they're gearing toward 2013 Reverse Proof Buffalo "mint to demand" campaign?
Or to feed the conspiracy theories from PM forum there is a shortage of 1 oz blanks to mint these? Keep in mind they are not mandated to satisfy demand for these "collector" items but may need to concentrate on "bullion" AGEs
It will certainly be fun to watch >>
FYI...The Mint geared up and started producing the rev. proof buff almost a month ago. Should have ample supply available when sales commence in August. No shortage of gold blanks this year
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
"To indulge in some over-analysis/wishful thinking, the last example of mint 2nd-striking occurred in Sept. 2010 when the Buchanan unc. spouse went on sale 9/2 and went red 9/17 or 9/18. I've long theorized the mint will strike as few coins in a given series as they can to fulfill demand without pi$$ing customers off, and in buchanans case, they might've felt with the pace of sales, 2 weeks wasn't long enough to offer the coin without getting flack. So they struck about 1700 more. The $50 2013 unc. A.G.E. has been offered for 7 weeks, is that long enough to allay customer wrath? Maybe not, but did folks pitch a fit when they suddenly stopped sales of the 2012's last year at 20 weeks and 6000 sold? Not so much."
"the last example of mint 2nd-striking occurred in Sept. 2010"
Didn't the mint have a second striking of the 2011-W $50 Burnished Gold when they ended up with just shy of 9,000 total coins sold? Interesting that here the number is roughly half of that 9,000 at around 4,500 sold with the backorder sign going up.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>Okay what about these: I think in First Strike they may be the keys to the series. >>
Key coins have nothing to do with labels, its all about the coin. First Strike label, just like a higher grade, will add dollars to the price of a key coin. Modern key coins within a series are generally determined by mintage numbers whether the coin is graded or ungraded. One exception to mintage numbers would be the $5 and $10 1999-W unc AGEs, mintages unkown.
Some good links to modern mintages that are worth saving in your favorites:
<< <i>The 2012 W $50 Burnished final mintage was, I believe, 6118. This is still pretty early for the 2013. It would seem that the 13 W will come in higher based on these numbers. >>
What could affect remaining sales of the 2013 W AGE: Dollars redirected to plat proofs and upcoming buff reverese proofs A decision by the big players to make another large purchase A sudden shortage of gold at the mint (has happened before)
Otherwise, the mint most likely struck enough of the 2013 W's to exceed 2012 W sales and they are just sitting on the shelf. What happens to them will determine the outcome. Normally the mint will just sell them until gone, but slow sales and a need for gold to meet other coin demand could result in an early end to sales and the melting pot for what's on the shelf.
In any event they will be among the lowest mintages, so they are probably not a bad play. Odds are there that they could be a homerun, downside on an investment in them is minimal. The downside threat is a continued decline in gold spot. >>
ttt
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
<< <i>"the last example of mint 2nd-striking occurred in Sept. 2010"
Didn't the mint have a second striking of the 2011-W $50 Burnished Gold when they ended up with just shy of 9,000 total coins sold? Interesting that here the number is roughly half of that 9,000 at around 4,500 sold with the backorder sign going up.
Wondercoin >>
I went back and checked and your recollection is correct. The 2011 went red in the last days of Sept. of that year at about 6000 coins sold to date.
don't confuse mintage (number released by the mint) with population (number for a given grade/special label by a given TPG). And, don't forget there is always a competing reputable TPG with its own population report for the same coin/grade/special label.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
I met with and spoke with Eric Jordan (the original poster of this long running thread) this week at the ANA Show in Chicago. Eric is alive and well. He said that he was burnt out from writing and taking a breather form writing and working on other items.
Although we discussed some of the analysis from his book and the great numismatic year of 2008, there were no predictions even though he continues to watch the market.
I don't believe you will see the mint sell the 2012 coins into 2014. Hello, melting pot.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
So, does this mean that the regular Proof Buffalo is selling out, and will have a mintage in the 15,000 range and be the new key to the series, or will they mint more?
Today is Sept. 13th, and it's a bit early to shelve sales of the current year's Gold Buffalo Proof, in my opinion. If it were October 13th, then I might say maybe.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
OK. I've just seen ships sail before, and right now you can buy a PCGS FS PR70 of this coin for about $2,000.
If sales are done at this level, that will be a bargain, especially given the popularity of the Reverse Proof and possible demand for a 2013 set of the pair.
<< <i>Proof Gold Buffalo is red at mint website. >>
Since the red does not say "Sold Out," they are temporarily unavailable. They are reloading the press.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
Can you imagine how nice it would have been for the mint to issue a three coin Buffalo 1/4 oz set in rev. proof, regular proof and ordinary matte unc.? That would have been very nice & think the larger size buffalos, let alone the rev. proof are just that - too large. Also the 1/4 oz size closer to Frazier's original.
For what it's worth, and nobody asked, my favorite buffalo of all is the '08W 1/4 oz. unc....
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
So great to see this - my favorite of all threads - pop up occasionally.
I so miss ericj96's input. I hope that he comes back sometime.
On another subject....
I was just reading the CW article on delays in shipping the ASE West Point sets due to delays in obtaining the packaging.
It would be great if the Mint offered an option to purchase coins without the very nice, very expensive OGP which many who grade coins don't want. Of course, this option should be offered at a lower price which would be reflective of the savings on the OGP. This would avoid waste, decrease costs and allow for faster shipping to everyone.
When one subscribes to some RCM sets the OGP for the whole set is oftern shipped first and the rest of the coins are shipped in capsules. The U.S. Mint could clearly just ship in capsules to those who don't want the OGP.
Another thing that the Mint could learn from the RCM and Perth Mints is the art of packaging. RCM and Perth have make packaging numismatic items an art form. I have never received any coins from either Mint that were not extremely well packaged. Of only the U.S. Mint would take lessons...
<< <i>It would be great if the Mint offered an option to purchase coins without the very nice, very expensive OGP which many who grade coins don't want. >>
The Mint did exactly that back around 2001. I ordered the CVC commems in capsules only, without the bulky packaging, at a reduced price. Each capsule was in a small envelope with the certificate of authenticity. Apparently this wasn't a popular option, and was soon discontinued.
Looks like the mint is having problems with the 2013 gold spouse coins. Perhaps a repeat of the 2011 mintages. I would watch the uncirculated versions next year when these will probably go red.2013 Gold Spouse Production Problems
Seems that the presses are causing a bottle capping effect. Be nice if few would escape the mint, but doubt it.
Though the low mintage 2011's seem to have dropped in price from their highs a lot.
Comments
Or to feed the conspiracy theories from PM forum
It will certainly be fun to watch
<< <i>It may also mean they're gearing toward 2013 Reverse Proof Buffalo "mint to demand" campaign?
Or to feed the conspiracy theories from PM forum
It will certainly be fun to watch >>
FYI...The Mint geared up and started producing the rev. proof buff almost a month ago. Should have ample supply available when sales commence in August. No shortage of gold blanks this year
"To indulge in some over-analysis/wishful thinking, the last example of mint 2nd-striking occurred in Sept. 2010 when the Buchanan unc. spouse went on sale 9/2 and went red 9/17 or 9/18. I've long theorized the mint will strike as few coins in a given series as they can to fulfill demand without pi$$ing customers off, and in buchanans case, they might've felt with the pace of sales, 2 weeks wasn't long enough to offer the coin without getting flack. So they struck about 1700 more.
The $50 2013 unc. A.G.E. has been offered for 7 weeks, is that long enough to allay customer wrath? Maybe not, but did folks pitch a fit when they suddenly stopped sales of the 2012's last year at 20 weeks and 6000 sold? Not so much."
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Didn't the mint have a second striking of the 2011-W $50 Burnished Gold when they ended up with just shy of 9,000 total coins sold? Interesting that here the number is roughly half of that 9,000 at around 4,500 sold with the backorder sign going up.
Wondercoin
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>FYI - Backorder date is gone for 2013-W Uncirclulated >>
Wow. That was fast.
<< <i>
<< <i>Okay what about these: I think in First Strike they may be the keys to the series. >>
Key coins have nothing to do with labels, its all about the coin. First Strike label, just like a higher grade, will add dollars to the price of a key coin. Modern key coins within a series are generally determined by mintage numbers whether the coin is graded or ungraded. One exception to mintage numbers would be the $5 and $10 1999-W unc AGEs, mintages unkown.
Some good links to modern mintages that are worth saving in your favorites:
AGE mintages
ASE mintages
APE mintages
Gold buffalo mintages
Modern commemorative mintages
First spouse mintages
<< <i>The 2012 W $50 Burnished final mintage was, I believe, 6118. This is still pretty early for the 2013. It would seem that the 13 W will come in higher based on these numbers. >>
What could affect remaining sales of the 2013 W AGE:
Dollars redirected to plat proofs and upcoming buff reverese proofs
A decision by the big players to make another large purchase
A sudden shortage of gold at the mint (has happened before)
Otherwise, the mint most likely struck enough of the 2013 W's to exceed 2012 W sales and they are just sitting on the shelf. What happens to them will determine the outcome. Normally the mint will just sell them until gone, but slow sales and a need for gold to meet other coin demand could result in an early end to sales and the melting pot for what's on the shelf.
In any event they will be among the lowest mintages, so they are probably not a bad play. Odds are there that they could be a homerun, downside on an investment in them is minimal. The downside threat is a continued decline in gold spot. >>
ttt
<< <i>"the last example of mint 2nd-striking occurred in Sept. 2010"
Didn't the mint have a second striking of the 2011-W $50 Burnished Gold when they ended up with just shy of 9,000 total coins sold? Interesting that here the number is roughly half of that 9,000 at around 4,500 sold with the backorder sign going up.
Wondercoin >>
I went back and checked and your recollection is correct. The 2011 went red in the last days of Sept. of that year at about 6000 coins sold to date.
<< <i>Some yahoo evidently ordered about 500 of the 4-coin Proof AGE sets last week. >>
Sorry - I will return them ASAP!
Link
Seems like 2006 sells for more than 2008, even though 2008 in first strike is the lowest pop. For example 282 of the 2006, and only 67 of the 2008.
So it seems total mintage plays a bigger role 3,544 versus 3706.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
$50 half ounce
$100 1 ounce
With pops of just 51 and 39 respectively, why are these not the keys versus the 2006 series, which has higher First Strike populations by far?
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
By the way, Mr Rebate hasn't offered a 3% rebate on eBay purchases in over a year or more. Ebay cut them off!
<< <i>Here's another low mintage platinum first strike to keep track of:
Link
Seems like 2006 sells for more than 2008, even though 2008 in first strike is the lowest pop. For example 282 of the 2006, and only 67 of the 2008.
So it seems total mintage plays a bigger role 3,544 versus 3706. >>
The mintages above are for the $10 plat, the coin in the link is the $25 plat, which has a lower mintage for the 2008 than for the 2006.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
2004-W $10 APE
THANKS
Eric is alive and well. He said that he was burnt out from writing and taking a breather form writing and working on other items.
Although we discussed some of the analysis from his book and the great numismatic year of 2008,
there were no predictions even though he continues to watch the market.
These 2 auctions failed to gets bids until the spot price moved over their melt value. And they are PCGS graded 70's!!
1998 PR70DCAM
2007 PR70DCAM
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
I knew it would happen.
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
<< <i>But why would the fractionals going for so close to melt, when the mint sells them for a much larger premium? >>
Economics 101...Supply & Demand. NO Demand for the Plats in the aftermarket and a small collector base, although their designs are top quality.
Box of 20
Certainly this glacial sales rate must have the mint wondering how many of the 2013s to strike................
<< <i>They will sell them into next year. >>
If that's the case the mint struck too many 2012's and will apply what they learned and strike fewer of the 2013's. Ja oder nein?
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
SHOULD I TRY TO BUY A BUNCH TODAY, OR NOT!?!
I knew it would happen.
If sales are done at this level, that will be a bargain, especially given the popularity of the Reverse Proof and possible demand for a 2013 set of the pair.
I'll calm down, though.........
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Proof Gold Buffalo is red at mint website. >>
Since the red does not say "Sold Out," they are temporarily unavailable. They are reloading the press.
"Interest rates, the price of money, are the most important market. And, perversely, they’re the market that’s most manipulated by the Fed." - Doug Casey
PCGS 2013-W PR69DCAM Proof American Gold Buffalo - 1oz - First Strike - rare
U.S. Mint lists this coin as "BACKORDERED" ~ sell out?
Wants $3800 for it...
2013 2 Coin Set in silver with a population of over 281,000
2013 Reverse Proof Gold Buffalo with a population just under 48,000
2013 American Eagle One Ounce Proof with a limit of 40,000 max across all options
2013 American Eagle One Ounce Unc with undetermined mintage number. No limit
2013 American Eagle One Ounce Platinum Proof Coin with mintage of 15,000. No household ordering limit.
Whoever thinks we don't have choices is probably not making any choices.
That would have been very nice & think the larger size buffalos, let alone the rev. proof are just that - too large. Also the 1/4 oz size closer to Frazier's original.
For what it's worth, and nobody asked, my favorite buffalo of all is the '08W 1/4 oz. unc....
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>For what it's worth, and nobody asked, my favorite buffalo of all is the '08W 1/4 oz. unc.... >>
Also, I saw a 2013 reverse proof buffalo yesterday, not particularly attractive IMO.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I so miss ericj96's input. I hope that he comes back sometime.
On another subject....
I was just reading the CW article on delays in shipping the ASE West Point sets due to delays in obtaining the packaging.
It would be great if the Mint offered an option to purchase coins without the very nice, very expensive OGP which many who grade coins don't want. Of course, this option should be offered at a lower price which would be reflective of the savings on the OGP. This would avoid waste, decrease costs and allow for faster shipping to everyone.
When one subscribes to some RCM sets the OGP for the whole set is oftern shipped first and the rest of the coins are shipped in capsules. The U.S. Mint could clearly just ship in capsules to those who don't want the OGP.
Another thing that the Mint could learn from the RCM and Perth Mints is the art of packaging. RCM and Perth have make packaging numismatic items an art form. I have never received any coins from either Mint that were not extremely well packaged. Of only the U.S. Mint would take lessons...
<< <i>It would be great if the Mint offered an option to purchase coins without the very nice, very expensive OGP which many who grade coins don't want. >>
The Mint did exactly that back around 2001. I ordered the CVC commems in capsules only, without the bulky packaging, at a reduced price. Each capsule was in a small envelope with the certificate of authenticity. Apparently this wasn't a popular option, and was soon discontinued.
Jim
I'll see if I can wake Eric up....
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
<< <i>"I so miss ericj96's input. I hope that he comes back sometime."
I'll see if I can wake Eric up....
John >>
Thanks very much! Would b great.
Seems that the presses are causing a bottle capping effect. Be nice if few would escape the mint, but doubt it.
Though the low mintage 2011's seem to have dropped in price from their highs a lot.
Box of 20