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  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,675 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>You know why the Mint sets the order cutoff date at 12/15-12/18 every year except this year. Every year hundreds of last minute orders jumped in and the Mint had shown every time that it has the capability to strike whatever number to satisfy (milk) the demand. Given this year's cut off as 12/31, the mint may have some production problem if the last minute orders jump in around the 12/30. But other than the literally last minute order surge, I see no reason why the Mint cannot do what they have always done successfully. >>


    All ready minted and on the Mint's shelf. Not minted to order. The leftovers just get melted. Too much trouble to set up different press runs for the same coin - cheaper to just do a bunch at once and melt what doesn't sell.

    The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Thanks for the insightful post!

    What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?

    I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.

    Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).

    So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.

    Thanks. >>



    Last I heard the CVC unc. had a mintage around 6,700 and the SSB unc. was over 7,000 >>



    I was going from memory. Looking online it seems that the mintages were about the same though the final final numbers for the SSB unc are not out yet.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,675 ✭✭✭✭✭
    primary reason for drop in price on collectible modern gold is that gold itself has seen a big drop in price in the last few years. The runup in collectible gold in the last seven years was due in a large part to a strong bull market in gold. It will return and those that bought collectible gold at today's prices will not regret it.

    The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.

  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,573 ✭✭✭
    Seems like the Ft McHenry 5 oz DMPLs are priced ridiculously high because a lot of dealers don't seem to want to deal with trying to grade the DMPLs. Is this a future trend. I doubt these Ft McHenry DMPLs are conditional rarities.

    Why does Apmex say the Mt. Rushmore bullion coins are sold out? Does anyone know what the production run was for these?
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I just received a 5 Star General $5 Gold MS70FS which I ordered last week. It's already badly toned/spotted. Good lord! It's not like it's been in the holder for very long. Argh! It's amazing how fast some of these coins tone/spot. Back it goes.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Looks like the MacArthur $5 gold unc. is on backorder status, could be sold out.

    Last reported sales were 4,857!

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • GritsManGritsMan Posts: 2,599 ✭✭✭


    << <i>Looks like the MacArthur $5 gold unc. is on backorder status, could be sold out.

    Last reported sales were 4,857! >>



    Thanks for the update. This would at least make an ugly coin somewhat interesting for the collector.
    Winner of the Coveted Devil Award June 8th, 2010
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MacArthur unc. $5 gold is now sold out. Latest sales totals are around 5700 but several hundred orders were placed after the coin went backorder on December 6. Either there was a *very* short additional run or a few backorders were filled using coins that had been returned for one reason or another. Final net mintage could be much less, as happened with the unc. 2011 Lucretia Garfield First Spouse.

    It looks like the unc. MacArthur will be at least the second scarcest $5 gold commem when final mintages are published.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I placed an order for two of them when they went on backorder. They are now both "In stock and reserved" with the cancel box gone.

    Edited: I just checked my Mint account. Both orders were placed on Dec. 7, after they had gone on backorder. They both shipped today. image
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>MacArthur unc. $5 gold is now sold out. Latest sales totals are around 5700 but several hundred orders were placed after the coin went backorder on December 6. Either there was a *very* short additional run or a few backorders were filled using coins that had been returned for one reason or another. Final net mintage could be much less, as happened with the unc. 2011 Lucretia Garfield First Spouse.

    It looks like the unc. MacArthur will be at least the second scarcest $5 gold commem when final mintages are published. >>



    Great news for those of us who bought.

    That said, with the ever decreasing sales of the $5 gold commems it would seem to be only a matter of time - and perhaps not much time - until Jackie is unseated.

    For that matter, I have been astonished at how much of a hit that Jackie has taken this year.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i> Final net mintage could be much less, as happened with the unc. 2011 Lucretia Garfield First Spouse.
    >>



    Two thoughts: Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever?
    Yes, General MacArthur looks like it will be the second lowest by a longshot.
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down. >>



    That is a relatively old article. Have the Garfield and Hayes mintages been finally established?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,573 ✭✭✭
    Lucretia doesn't seem to be doing very well. $1100-$1400 range. I am watching the 2012s which will go off sale on Dec 31, but still undecided if I want to purchase even with the low mintages.
  • derrybderryb Posts: 36,675 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down. >>



    2,498 according to this, and still not finalized

    The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.

  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    The 2498 figure was the total number ordered, reported the week after the Lucretia went dark. Orders (about 500) poured in during the final week, right after the coin went to "backorder" status. Collectors/speculators correctly guessed that the Mint was out of inventory, and the unc. Lucretia would be an extremely short issue. No more of them could be struck, as the final sales occurred in 2012 and the coins were dated 2011. (The Mint no longer allows coins to be minted with previous years' dates.)

    As is the Mint's custom, no further updates were provided in the weekly sales reports after the coin had sold out. Eventually there were multiple reports on this board of orders submitted during the "backorder" period being canceled. The eventual net sales total of 2167 was provided to Coinweek by the Mint. Although not an audited total, it almost certainly is much closer to the actual sales total than the initial 2498 figure.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Lucretia does pop up from time to time for a good price, at least raw and in MS69 grades. I've got one PCGS MS69 FS but would like to get another one if I could get one around $1100 again. (I think I paid $850 for mine)
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Thanks for the info.
    Does anyone think Hayes will come in lower?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    MacArthur unc. $5 gold is now sold out. Latest sales totals are around 5700 but several hundred orders were placed after the coin went backorder on December 6. Either there was a *very* short additional run or a few backorders were filled using coins that had been returned for one reason or another. Final net mintage could be much less, as happened with the unc. 2011 Lucretia Garfield First Spouse.

    It looks like the unc. MacArthur will be at least the second scarcest $5 gold commem when final mintages are published.



    <<I placed an order for two of them when they went on backorder. They are now both "In stock and reserved" with the cancel box gone.

    Edited: I just checked my Mint account. Both orders were placed on Dec. 7, after they had gone on backorder. They both shipped today.image>>


    Interpreting these bits of "Mint intelligence" (an oxymoron if there ever was one)image, it looks like backorder status simply means that they are running low. I put less credence on an additional run, not just because of the setup costs & scheduling, but also because they wouldn't have any good way to know how many more to mint without creating an unwelcome end-of-the-year overrun.

    i.e., if you order quick enough after backorder, you may get one of the last few available. This seems to corroborate the anectdotal evidence of other previous sellouts, including the Garfield.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • any clue from the letter from mint last week? personally I think that they just closed out their remaining inventory---------------

    Dear United States Mint Customer:

    We are in receipt of your order for products included in either the 2013 5-Star Generals Commemorative Coin Program or the 2013 Girl Scouts of the USA Centennial Silver Dollar Commemorative Coin Program.

    Legislation for these coins requires that they be issued by December 31, 2013. Therefore, all orders not fulfilled by that date will be cancelled. As these commemorative products begin shipping, your credit card will be charged. To facilitate the processing of your order, please ensure that your credit card expiration date is current, that your billing address on file matches your credit card billing address, and that your credit card can accommodate both your purchase total and the shipping and handling fee. Please note, due to this time constraint, we will not be able to contact you to resolve any order processing issues.

    Please use the track order feature on our website at http://catalog.usmint.gov by entering your order number and last name to obtain the status of your order. If any credit card updates are needed, please contact us no later than noon ET, December 31, 2013. You can reach us 7 days a week from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 midnight Eastern Time at 1-800-USA-MINT (872-6468). Hearing and speech impaired customers with TTY equipment can reach us Monday through Friday from 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time at 1-888-321-MINT (6468). Without this updated information, your order will regrettably be cancelled.

    The United States Mint is pleased to fulfill your numismatic needs.

    Sincerely,

    Customer Service Center

    United States Mint
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------
    To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down. >>



    2,498 according to this, and still not finalized >>



    This would make Hayes the key. Looking forward to this being settled.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • kiyotekiyote Posts: 5,572 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down. >>



    2,498 according to this, and still not finalized >>



    This would make Hayes the key. Looking forward to this being settled. >>



    Me too! We're talking about couting a few thousand coins here.. How did this become rocket science? image
    "I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>

    << <i>Did we get the final Lucretia numbers ever? >>


    Not absolutely official, but close to it.

    2,167.

    Sixth paragraph down. >>



    2,498 according to this, and still not finalized >>



    This would make Hayes the key. Looking forward to this being settled. >>



    Me too! We're talking about couting a few thousand coins here.. How did this become rocket science? image >>



    Several Ebay sellers say that Hayes has the lowest mintage as if this is settled.
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • Following is Eric Jordan's take on MacArthur uncirculated posted online tonight. Enjoy it image


    Louis Golino said: ↑
    The XLS #s are changed all the time, and I don't trust them. The one that counts is the Tues. 5pm #. There will be another # next week that may show some small change for orders that came in late, etc. and then they will probably not give any more #'s until the final audited # a year from now. So next week's will be the key. But I do not expect it to be different from 5612. With a mintage only a few hundred over Jackie Robinson you are going to see demand continue to pick up now, and the coins are selling for very healthy premiums on the Bay and are sold out at every dealer. It's too early to really determine demand levels, but they seem to be very healthy right now. You will not find any except on the Bay for a min. 50% markup. Eric, what is your assessment?

    I liked the coins at issue price for certain just did not buy enough. The coin sold out gently and then got hit. I would not be shocked to the see final final mintaes come in around the current 5600 numbers and just MAYBE even down some. If this coin gets picked up by a promoter like John it could get expensive. I paid $685 for an unopened one right after it when no longer available if that gives you ay idea how I feel about it.
    To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,573 ✭✭✭
    I broke down and bought the Caroline Harrison PF and MS just before 12PM today last day of sales. These low mintages are becoming the norm it seems though.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    The overlooked clad half is very close to dethroning the 2012 Army clad half for lowest mintage.

    Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.

    Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters.
  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>The overlooked clad half is very close to dethroning the 2012 Army clad half for lowest mintage.

    Even though the combined sales of products containing this coin were within 100 coins of the 2012 Army clad half mintage, the wait until 5pm to see the real numbers is a nail biter.

    Remember, that $20 coin has the potential to be a 3-4x flip, price point matters. >>



    The Army clad was a dud. I have 10 I bot graded PCGS 69 (highest grade for the coin) and after ebay fees, I basically broke even and it took me almost a year to get rid of them.
  • 7over87over8 Posts: 4,733 ✭✭✭
    I seem to remember right after sellout of the Army clad half, those things were hot on ebay at the 60-80 range for about a month or so
  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>I seem to remember right after sellout of the Army clad half, those things were hot on ebay at the 60-80 range for about a month or so >>



    See the other thread!!! image
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,573 ✭✭✭
    I placed 3 orders of five each for a total of 15 from the mint. MS70s go for $2000-5000, though won't get them graded. I will just sell the 3 unopened boxes.
  • RaufusRaufus Posts: 6,784 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>I placed 3 orders of five each for a total of 15 from the mint. MS70s go for $2000-5000, though won't get them graded. I will just sell the 3 unopened boxes. >>



    3 orders of five each of which coin?
    Land of the Free because of the Brave!
  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭


    << <i>

    << <i>I placed 3 orders of five each for a total of 15 from the mint. MS70s go for $2000-5000, though won't get them graded. I will just sell the 3 unopened boxes. >>



    3 orders of five each of which coin? >>



    I was wondering that also when he through out the $2,000 - $5,000 figure!!
  • I'm sure he means the clad half. I saw one sell on ebay earlier this year for $2,000 or so in MS70. The MS70 population is very low.
  • Coins101Coins101 Posts: 2,602 ✭✭✭
    ......
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,059 ✭✭✭✭✭
    At noon today, I noticed on the Mint web site that every one of the 2012 gold spouse coins were marked as 'SOLD OUT'. I knew they would not be sold past 2013, but figured one could order some today yet. But... looks like some deep pockets stepped in and purchased the remaining coins? Surely were not too many left for each issue.

    What say you? Any winners in the issues?
    ----- kj
  • wondercoinwondercoin Posts: 16,866 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Noon was cutoff. Doubtful many 2012 spouse coins sold.

    Wondercoin
    Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    Tincup, the 2012 spouses were put on the mint's Last Chance Sale thing a few weeks ago. They were all due to go off sale at noon on the 31st. I highly doubt they were scooped up by anyone, but next weeks sales report shall tell the tale.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    Can anyone think of a reason why the mint struck the 2013's in greater numbers than the 2012's? Three of the four 2012 uncs sold in the 2300 range after a year plus of availability. That's your "anticipated demand" right there. I think 2013s could even set new lows for the series.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭


    << <i>Can anyone think of a reason why the mint struck the 2013's in greater numbers than the 2012's? Three of the four 2012 uncs sold in the 2300 range after a year plus of availability. That's your "anticipated demand" right there. I think 2013s could even set new lows for the series. >>


    The 2013 spouse coins might have higher sales due to the more recognizable and popular presidents that the women portrayed on the coins were married to.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 22,693 ✭✭✭✭✭
    I think 2013s could even set new lows for the series.

    When you get down to 2,500 coins, production planning amounts to splitting hairs. A run of 2,500 doesn't require much of a change from 3,000, so it is probably more efficient to simply crank out 3,000 coins even if anticipated demand is only 2,500.

    It'll take most of a year to find out what the demand for the 2013 coins is going to be. The economy and gold prices can still be factors.
    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • 92vette92vette Posts: 528 ✭✭✭
    But none of that matters guys does it? The mint had one chance to anticipate demand when they struck the coins initially late in the year. By law no more can be struck in 2014.
  • tincuptincup Posts: 5,059 ✭✭✭✭✭
    Ah... so the cutoff for the 2012 spouses was at noon. That would explain the 'sold out' tag that confused me. (hey, it doesn't take much to confuse me sometimes!).

    So I would have to agree that probably not many of the 2012 were sold. If so, it looks like there are a couple of them where the proofs may end up to be the lowest mintage for the series?

    I suspect the 2013 mintage run will be similar to the 2012, but demand will probably be greater as previously mentioned due to more recognizable names. The sales numbers already seem to be stronger IMO for not being on sale for very long.
    ----- kj
  • Take a look of the pcgs pop data of 2013 spouse gold. I know many dealers pre screen before submission, but the data is still amazing.
    To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
  • pf70collectorpf70collector Posts: 6,573 ✭✭✭
    I bought the Harrison MS and PF Gold Spouse, probably the least popular. I hope they were ignored at the end of sales. Most of the 2012s have similar low mintages though.
  • Wow.

    A year on sale and a $200+ decline in price and all the collectors, flippers and dealers combined struggled to buy 2,500 coins.
  • I watch the first spouse coins and think about their structure and how they may turn out frequenty. If you guys are at the FUN show come on by for my lecture on Thrusday January 9th in room W-232-C. One of the topics covered at lenght are the first spouse and $5 gold commems. If you can't make the lecture come on by booth 1423 and see me.

    Hope you guys are doing well.
  • C0INB0YC0INB0Y Posts: 627 ✭✭
    TTT
    I was ‘COINB0Y' with 4812 posts and ‘Expert Collector’ ranking (Joined in 2006).
  • DeepCoinDeepCoin Posts: 2,781 ✭✭✭
    Eric,

    I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.

    If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.

    Just MHO.
    Retired United States Mint guy, now working on an Everyman Type Set.
  • OverdateOverdate Posts: 6,987 ✭✭✭✭✭
    At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems.

    My Adolph A. Weinman signature :)

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