<< <i>Can you imagine how nice it would have been for the mint to issue a three coin Buffalo 1/4 oz set in rev. proof, regular proof and ordinary matte unc.? That would have been very nice & think the larger size buffalos, let alone the rev. proof are just that - too large. Also the 1/4 oz size closer to Frazier's original.
For what it's worth, and nobody asked, my favorite buffalo of all is the '08W 1/4 oz. unc.... >>
I also agree with you. A three-coin 1/4-ounce set would have been stunning. I got my one-ounce RP yesterday and like it very much--but not as much as the smaller 1/4-oz in regular unc and proof. The Mint is never going to please everyone, but maybe they should do more to survey their regular customers.
<< <i>Looks like the mint is having problems with the 2013 gold spouse coins. Perhaps a repeat of the 2011 mintages. I would watch the uncirculated versions next year when these will probably go red.2013 Gold Spouse Production Problems
Seems that the presses are causing a bottle capping effect. Be nice if few would escape the mint, but doubt it.
Though the low mintage 2011's seem to have dropped in price from their highs a lot. >>
Popularity-wise, I think the First Spouse coins will remain in the deep freeze until late 2014, when some of the more recent and well-known first ladies begin to appear (starting with Eleanor Roosevelt). This could rejuvenate the entire series and draw attention to the low-mintage issues.
Theoretically the series should conclude in 2016 with the Betty Ford coin.
I don't believe the mint as they didn't have problems with the gold buffalo coins and those are also .999 gold. The gold buffalo look harder to strike.
Well coming to the end of the year. What do you think will be the best or rarest coin, US Mint has offered in 2013? My Eye is on the 5 Star General Gold Uncirculated.
<< <i>I don't believe the mint as they didn't have problems with the gold buffalo coins and those are also .999 gold. The gold buffalo look harder to strike. >>
Perhaps they know something about gold prices and are waiting for them to rise
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
This is my first post on this site. I got interested in coin collecting a little more than a year ago, but I couldn't decide exactly what I was going to collect. I didn't buy anything for a couple months, but did read a few books.
I thought modern commemoratives might be my thing, so the third book I bought was Eric Jordan's Modern Commemorative Coins. Initially I was a little disappointed that only 10% of it was actually about commemoratives, but I knew nothing about bullion coins so it opened my eyes to those. After reading the book a few times and it completely changed my outlook. Initially I had it in my head that I was going to have to pick a series and try to complete it. The "buy what you like" saying did not apply much to me because I liked lots of coins, more than my wallet could handle.
So now I don't feel obligated to try to complete a series. I have concluded that by just trying to identify the keys before they are keys I will slowly assemble a pretty nice collection. So far I have the 2012 gold eagle 4 coin set, the 2013 reverse proof gold buffalo, nine of the 2013 West Point silver eagle sets, and a handful of other things that I thought had potential.
I was pretty excited when I found this thread and noticed the handle of the original poster, but was a little disappointed that Eric does not seem to be active on the forum any longer.
Anyway, as one of Eric's disciples I look forward to reading your thoughts and contributing here.
Welcome bg35765. The thing about coins is that they aren't hard to like.
I don't believe the mint as they didn't have problems with the gold buffalo coins and those are also .999 gold. The gold buffalo look harder to strike.
Halfstrike, I wonder about that, too. I just pulled out some of my Spouse coins from 2007-2012 and I notice that there aren't any striking flaws at all, perfect execution, even on the fine reeding. I don't know why they would have problems all of a sudden.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>Looks like the mint is having problems with the 2013 gold spouse coins. Perhaps a repeat of the 2011 mintages.
Yes, the problem is that they strike one and when the Mint press man takes a look at it he suddenly turns and runs out of the building screaming. No one knows why.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
79 days left in the year and still no release dates for the spouses!!!!! Is this setting up for instant rarities? Any guesses on the number that will be minted? Cutting it close to the bone for 10 gold coins in such a short period of time. Is your powder dry?
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>79 days left in the year and still no release dates for the spouses!!!!! Is this setting up for instant rarities? Any guesses on the number that will be minted? Cutting it close to the bone for 10 gold coins in such a short period of time. Is your powder dry? >>
Sales dates are now out! looks like starting in November one spouse per week will be released. Right at Xmas when Finances are strained. However the price per coin should be about $200.00 cheaper than last years opening prices.
I have been advised on this board that the 2012 W 1 OZ Burnished American Gold Eagle has or will have the lowest mintage of the entire AGE 1 oz series as the 2013 W has come in at higher sales then 6110 for 2012 reported... both yet unconfirmed numbers by US Mint however....
The original US mint issue price on this coin was $1978.00 about a 17% premium over the price of gold per oz at that time.
After grading and FS designation, shipping both ways, add another 50 bucks or so...
MS 70 grade with PCGS and FS designation....
Lowest sales price on ebay is about $2400.00 back in September 2013 for a coin with a MS70 grade. Highest amount paid around $3,300.00 I am using Ebay as only one standard of market place information as I have no other information on the many other markets that publish sold prices....
This is all I have learned so far on this issue in this grade in that holder.
My question for Eric.. What is the value proposition of this coin going forward in time?. Good investment coin? What is a good price for acquisition at this time? What is the best way to liquidate this coin?
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made. >>
Same here. Just because of the lateness and the problems that were encountered-- that does not guarantee lower mintages than what we have been seeing. While the problems may have delayed production... once the presses are running it does not take much time to mint 5,000 to 10,000 coins....
All the 2012 spouses are still on sale (except for the Alice Paul proof), and they may continue to remain available until the Mint's inventory is depleted. Same is possible for the 2013 spouses. Both the 2012 and 2013 spouses may wind up with reasonably low mintages, but I suspect that the uncirculated 2011 Lucretia Garfield and Lucy Hayes will be the low-mintage champs of the entire series.
Way back when, you know when the mint failed to sell out their inventory of spouses, they were taken off the market after approx. one year of availability. They would just be replaced by the that year's new offering. That's what will probably happen this year as well. I don't believe the mint will break with that and offer 10 spouses at a time and sell 2012-dated coins into 2014.
Way back when, you know when the mint failed to sell out their inventory of spouses, they were taken off the market after approx. one year of availability. They would just be replaced by the that year's new offering. That's what will probably happen this year as well. I don't believe the mint will break with that and offer 10 spouses at a time and sell 2012-dated coins into 2014.
They used to replace the previous year's Plats in April or May with the current production, but at this point they are still offering both the 2012 and 2013 Plats.
The Mint has always tried to squeeze more blood out of the turnip, but their strategy for accomplishing this changes from time to time, based on their current management's "wisdom". The kicker is that the world is finite and changing a policy doesn't produce better yield every time. Even the Mint is aware of costs, and cost management is probably built into some type of management incentive.
What happens in most cases is that the coinage issues that don't make money are finally mothballed or retired. With the Spouses, the Mint doesn't have that luxury because the program has been congressionally mandated. That being the case, I think that they are making some mintage adjustments. If you were the Mint and had to produce the coins, how would you do it such that it didn't impact your operating statements as negatively when demand is down? The setup costs are comparable, and if they really did encounter finning problems with the strikings, where else is there to economize?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Now that there are only two months left in the year and the US Mint will have to stop making 2013 dated coins, here are some speculative thoughts about winners for 2013:
1. 2013-W Buffalo Regular PR70dcam First Strike (about 25% of the reverse proof and sells for more) 2. 2013-W Burnished AGE MS70 First Strike (2nd lowest mintage of the burnished?) 3. 2013-W Platinum APE PR70dcam First Strike (nice design) 4. 2013-W Buffalo Reverse Proof PR70 Chicago Label (limited distribution at Chicago ANA) 5. 2013-W Buffalo Reverse Proof PR70 First Strike 6. 2013 First Spouses First Strike MS70 & PR70 (late in the year but unknown mintage)
Note: Collectors appear to want only First Strike MS70 or PR70 coins. MS69 and PR69 coins sell near the raw price. Labels such as First Strike, Bison, Black Diamond, ANA, etc seems to be valued.
What are other opinions? Are we going to start to see surprise sellouts soon?
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made. >>
Keep in mind that final mintage is determined by final sales numbers. Unsold, struck coins go back to the melting pot.
I believe the big winner for 2013 is the 2012-W Silver Eagle in PR70 First Strike from the Limited Edition Silver Proof Set.
These sets were issued very late in the year and the First Strike cutoff was in late January 2013. Very few were submitted for First Strike and only a handful of first-strike-eligible Mint sealed boxes have appeared on eBay recently. I believe only five Silver Eagles from this set have been certified in PR70 First Strike so far. A few went for over $600 each on eBay earlier this year - they would probably bring more now. A PR69 First Strike recently closed at $570. The other coins in the set are doing reasonably well in First Strike also.
<< <i>Way back when, you know when the mint failed to sell out their inventory of spouses, they were taken off the market after approx. one year of availability. They would just be replaced by the that year's new offering. That's what will probably happen this year as well. I don't believe the mint will break with that and offer 10 spouses at a time and sell 2012-dated coins into 2014.
They used to replace the previous year's Plats in April or May with the current production, but at this point they are still offering both the 2012 and 2013 Plats.
The Mint has always tried to squeeze more blood out of the turnip, but their strategy for accomplishing this changes from time to time, based on their current management's "wisdom". The kicker is that the world is finite and changing a policy doesn't produce better yield every time. Even the Mint is aware of costs, and cost management is probably built into some type of management incentive.
What happens in most cases is that the coinage issues that don't make money are finally mothballed or retired. With the Spouses, the Mint doesn't have that luxury because the program has been congressionally mandated. That being the case, I think that they are making some mintage adjustments. If you were the Mint and had to produce the coins, how would you do it such that it didn't impact your operating statements as negatively when demand is down? The setup costs are comparable, and if they really did encounter finning problems with the strikings, where else is there to economize? >>
If by "making some mintage adjustments" you mean they will mint fewer 2013's than 2012's, I agree. The pace of sales for the current offerings are as dismal as ever. The mint clearly over-estimated demand for the 2012's.
Does anyone know what's up with the sudden jump in 2013 W $50 AGE UNC sales? For many months the sales number just crept up very little each week and then, all of the sudden, the increase was dramatic. Does anyone know why?
<< <i>Does anyone know what's up with the sudden jump in 2013 W $50 AGE UNC sales? For many months the sales number just crept up very little each week and then, all of the sudden, the increase was dramatic. Does anyone know why? >>
Price temporarily fell back to a low of $1575 on a coin that was at the time the lowest mintage AGE of all time. Buyers (including the major sellers) all saw a money making opportunity at the same time. Note current weekly sales were minus 26 coins. While the return period for the week of the sudden jump has ended, I suspect more returns are filtering in via slow registered mail.
I just received the Mt. Rushmore P puck (being one of at least 5 people in the U.S. who likes them and buys every issue).
I have to say that it was a very pleasant surprise. The design is fantastic in person due to the depth of the design and the relief of the coin. Did anyone else get one? If so, what do you think?
I have to say that it was a very pleasant surprise. The design is fantastic in person due to the depth of the design and the relief of the coin. Did anyone else get one? If so, what do you think?
I only buy the 5 oz P pucks I like. So far, bought the Perry and the Rushmore is on the way. I won't buy the Ft. McHenry because I hate the design, even though I live Baltimore. That was the one puck I was looking forward to buying.
<< I think ericj96 has been "away" from these boards for too long..... >>
I so agree. His input is very much missed!!!
I'd like to see him post as well. However, he is still contributing in ways that are valuable, if you keep a copy of his book and use his analytical framework to update the more recent issues. His remarks concerning "deep keys" and his observations on the sales curve during the first 8 weeks of sales.............are still meaningful. There are other relationships within any given series that should be re-emphasized. Eric did his homework, and he laid out some interesting studies. Time to review the framework and to update it.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
Holy cow! What's happened to the Jackie UNC?? I see that recent sales for MS70s have been in the $2500 range. It was not long ago that raw coins were $3K and 70s were $4100 - $4500. What's happened?? I could not believe this.
Conversely, I see that the 95 W ASE in proof 69 is bringing $4500 when it was about $3100 just a few years ago.
I had not priced either of these in a while. I was very surprised by both.
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors. A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages. And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days. 100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking. Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues. I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months. Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000. Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc. Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases. In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most. Almost certainly below 1,500. Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units. And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats.
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors. A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages. And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days. 100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking. Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues. I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months. Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000. Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc. Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases. In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most. Almost certainly below 1,500. Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units. And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats. >>
Thanks for the insightful post!
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
The Jackie Robinson gold in PCGS/NGC MS69 has dropped to the mid-$1600s. Part of this might be because 12 of them have been auctioned on eBay during the past month or so. The low price also reflects the fact that the Jackie is no longer the low-mintage champ that it was 10 years ago - the mintage of 5,174 has been eclipsed by the 2006-08 burnished platinum eagles, along with many proof and uncirculated First Spouse coins.
I think the 24,000 Jackie proofs (at $400 to $500) also act as a damper - many of the low-mintage burnished plats and spouses are matched by much lower mintages of their proof counterparts than the Jackie, so substitution is more expensive.
<< <i>The Jackie Robinson gold in PCGS/NGC MS69 has dropped to the mid-$1600s. Part of this might be because 12 of them have been auctioned on eBay during the past month or so. The low price also reflects the fact that the Jackie is no longer the low-mintage champ that it was 10 years ago - the mintage of 5,174 has been eclipsed by the 2006-08 burnished platinum eagles, along with many proof and uncirculated First Spouse coins.
I think the 24,000 Jackie proofs (at $400 to $500) also act as a damper - many of the low-mintage burnished plats and spouses are matched by much lower mintages of their proof counterparts than the Jackie, so substitution is more expensive. >>
I don't think that mintages are looked at across coins in that way - i.e., $5 gold unc. commems vs plats, etc.
Of note, for at least a couple of years after the super-low mintage plats of '08 the Jackie Unc in MS70 was still bringing $4100+ on most every if not every sale.
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale.
I also think that despite the spate of Jackie sales in the last month on ebay (uncs) that the dispersion was better than many of the later "flipper delights". My opinion only, but following the coin since issue seems to support this.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors. A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages. And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days. 100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking. Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues. I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months. Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000. Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc. Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases. In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most. Almost certainly below 1,500. Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units. And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats. >>
Thanks for the insightful post!
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
Thanks. >>
Last I heard the CVC unc. had a mintage around 6,700 and the SSB unc. was over 7,000
Why changes in size of different series collector base??
I'm sure there are many opinions but even with recent price drop the rather dramatic rise in PM prices over last 10 years has likely priced many out of the gold and platinum market.
A higher percentage of new collectors likely go for silver proofs at $30-$50 each rather than gold or platinum based products.
Consider the long time historic ratio in price of 30 to 1 for gold to silver has for the last few years been closer to 60 to 1.
When I estimated 100,00 hard core ASE collectors I considered that the mint year in and year out sells 600,000-800,000 proofs.
If you collect ASEs you can get an example of each coin and even 5 coin sets for $600 or less with exception of the 1995-W proof.
ASEs have a nice common design with now several variations even a novice can appreciate like Proof vs. Burnished/unc vs. Reverse Proof. Even different mint marks and a varity.
For the $5 gold commemoratives cheapest prices start at $300+ just based on todays melt value.
Only common thread for the gold $5 is the color and size.
The spouses..........well you know that answer.
In the end it is wise to remember it is not mintage alone that matters but rather mintage in relation to demand.
Currently, there are 28 different $5 coins to collect and that's if you only collect one finish. 28 x say, an average of $400 a coin = close to 12k. Pretty steep!
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale. >>
The off-sale date could be sooner if the Mint's inventory is depleted. We don't know how many unc. Generals were initially struck, but that number is likely the maximum net mintage. I doubt that the Mint would strike additional ones this late in the year, with all the preparations for 2014 coinage looming. The Generals 3-coin proof set is already sold out, and no additional sets will be struck.
Last year the Mint striked an additional 2000 uncriculated gold banner coin after the initial back order status in November. As a result, a lot of last minute flippers were suckered in. US MInt is as unpredictable as a penny stock in the OTC market
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale. >>
The off-sale date could be sooner if the Mint's inventory is depleted. We don't know how many unc. Generals were initially struck, but that number is likely the maximum net mintage. I doubt that the Mint would strike additional ones this late in the year, with all the preparations for 2014 coinage looming. The Generals 3-coin proof set is already sold out, and no additional sets will be struck. >>
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
You know why the Mint sets the order cutoff date at 12/15-12/18 every year except this year. Every year hundreds of last minute orders jumped in and the Mint had shown every time that it has the capability to strike whatever number to satisfy (milk) the demand. Given this year's cut off as 12/31, the mint may have some production problem if the last minute orders jump in around the 12/30. But other than the literally last minute order surge, I see no reason why the Mint cannot do what they have always done successfully.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
Comments
<< <i>Can you imagine how nice it would have been for the mint to issue a three coin Buffalo 1/4 oz set in rev. proof, regular proof and ordinary matte unc.?
That would have been very nice & think the larger size buffalos, let alone the rev. proof are just that - too large. Also the 1/4 oz size closer to Frazier's original.
For what it's worth, and nobody asked, my favorite buffalo of all is the '08W 1/4 oz. unc.... >>
I also agree with you. A three-coin 1/4-ounce set would have been stunning. I got my one-ounce RP yesterday and like it very much--but not as much as the smaller 1/4-oz in regular unc and proof. The Mint is never going to please everyone, but maybe they should do more to survey their regular customers.
<< <i>Looks like the mint is having problems with the 2013 gold spouse coins. Perhaps a repeat of the 2011 mintages. I would watch the uncirculated versions next year when these will probably go red.2013 Gold Spouse Production Problems
Seems that the presses are causing a bottle capping effect. Be nice if few would escape the mint, but doubt it.
Though the low mintage 2011's seem to have dropped in price from their highs a lot. >>
Popularity-wise, I think the First Spouse coins will remain in the deep freeze until late 2014, when some of the more recent and well-known first ladies begin to appear (starting with Eleanor Roosevelt). This could rejuvenate the entire series and draw attention to the low-mintage issues.
Theoretically the series should conclude in 2016 with the Betty Ford coin.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
best or rarest coin, US Mint has offered in 2013? My Eye is on
the 5 Star General Gold Uncirculated.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>I don't believe the mint as they didn't have problems with the gold buffalo coins and those are also .999 gold. The gold buffalo look harder to strike. >>
Perhaps they know something about gold prices and are waiting for them to rise
I thought modern commemoratives might be my thing, so the third book I bought was Eric Jordan's Modern Commemorative Coins. Initially I was a little disappointed that only 10% of it was actually about commemoratives, but I knew nothing about bullion coins so it opened my eyes to those. After reading the book a few times and it completely changed my outlook. Initially I had it in my head that I was going to have to pick a series and try to complete it. The "buy what you like" saying did not apply much to me because I liked lots of coins, more than my wallet could handle.
So now I don't feel obligated to try to complete a series. I have concluded that by just trying to identify the keys before they are keys I will slowly assemble a pretty nice collection. So far I have the 2012 gold eagle 4 coin set, the 2013 reverse proof gold buffalo, nine of the 2013 West Point silver eagle sets, and a handful of other things that I thought had potential.
I was pretty excited when I found this thread and noticed the handle of the original poster, but was a little disappointed that Eric does not seem to be active on the forum any longer.
Anyway, as one of Eric's disciples I look forward to reading your thoughts and contributing here.
I don't believe the mint as they didn't have problems with the gold buffalo coins and those are also .999 gold. The gold buffalo look harder to strike.
Halfstrike, I wonder about that, too. I just pulled out some of my Spouse coins from 2007-2012 and I notice that there aren't any striking flaws at all, perfect execution, even on the fine reeding. I don't know why they would have problems all of a sudden.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>
<< <i>Looks like the mint is having problems with the 2013 gold spouse coins. Perhaps a repeat of the 2011 mintages.
Yes, the problem is that they strike one and when the Mint press man takes a look at it he suddenly turns and runs out of the building screaming. No one knows why.
<< <i>79 days left in the year and still no release dates for the spouses!!!!! Is this setting up for instant rarities? Any guesses on the number that will be minted? Cutting it close to the bone for 10 gold coins in such a short period of time. Is your powder dry?
Sales dates are now out! looks like starting in November one spouse per week will be released. Right at Xmas when
Finances are strained. However the price per coin should be about $200.00 cheaper than last years opening prices.
The original US mint issue price on this coin was $1978.00 about a 17% premium over the price of gold per oz at that time.
After grading and FS designation, shipping both ways, add another 50 bucks or so...
MS 70 grade with PCGS and FS designation....
Lowest sales price on ebay is about $2400.00 back in September 2013 for a coin with a MS70 grade. Highest amount paid around $3,300.00 I am using Ebay as only one standard of market place information as I have no other information on the many other markets that publish sold prices....
This is all I have learned so far on this issue in this grade in that holder.
My question for Eric.. What is the value proposition of this coin going forward in time?. Good investment coin? What is a good price for acquisition at this time? What is the best way to liquidate this coin?
Thanks!!!
Box of 20
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made.
<< <i>
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made. >>
Same here. Just because of the lateness and the problems that were encountered-- that does not guarantee lower mintages than what we have been seeing. While the problems may have delayed production... once the presses are running it does not take much time to mint 5,000 to 10,000 coins....
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
They used to replace the previous year's Plats in April or May with the current production, but at this point they are still offering both the 2012 and 2013 Plats.
The Mint has always tried to squeeze more blood out of the turnip, but their strategy for accomplishing this changes from time to time, based on their current management's "wisdom". The kicker is that the world is finite and changing a policy doesn't produce better yield every time. Even the Mint is aware of costs, and cost management is probably built into some type of management incentive.
What happens in most cases is that the coinage issues that don't make money are finally mothballed or retired. With the Spouses, the Mint doesn't have that luxury because the program has been congressionally mandated. That being the case, I think that they are making some mintage adjustments. If you were the Mint and had to produce the coins, how would you do it such that it didn't impact your operating statements as negatively when demand is down? The setup costs are comparable, and if they really did encounter finning problems with the strikings, where else is there to economize?
I knew it would happen.
1. 2013-W Buffalo Regular PR70dcam First Strike (about 25% of the reverse proof and sells for more)
2. 2013-W Burnished AGE MS70 First Strike (2nd lowest mintage of the burnished?)
3. 2013-W Platinum APE PR70dcam First Strike (nice design)
4. 2013-W Buffalo Reverse Proof PR70 Chicago Label (limited distribution at Chicago ANA)
5. 2013-W Buffalo Reverse Proof PR70 First Strike
6. 2013 First Spouses First Strike MS70 & PR70 (late in the year but unknown mintage)
Note: Collectors appear to want only First Strike MS70 or PR70 coins. MS69 and PR69 coins sell near the raw price.
Labels such as First Strike, Bison, Black Diamond, ANA, etc seems to be valued.
What are other opinions? Are we going to start to see surprise sellouts soon?
Mintages are running lower then the last few years and those are worth more then issue.....
<< <i>
<< <i>My eye is on the 2013 gold spouses, probably the MS versions. Problems with minting and late offering are two reasons enough to keep an eye on them. >>
I believe that they stuck more of the burnished gold Eagles in 2013 than 2012. I wonder if that can provide any hints on the numbers of Spouses made. >>
Keep in mind that final mintage is determined by final sales numbers. Unsold, struck coins go back to the melting pot.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
These sets were issued very late in the year and the First Strike cutoff was in late January 2013. Very few were submitted for First Strike and only a handful of first-strike-eligible Mint sealed boxes have appeared on eBay recently. I believe only five Silver Eagles from this set have been certified in PR70 First Strike so far. A few went for over $600 each on eBay earlier this year - they would probably bring more now. A PR69 First Strike recently closed at $570. The other coins in the set are doing reasonably well in First Strike also.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Way back when, you know when the mint failed to sell out their inventory of spouses, they were taken off the market after approx. one year of availability. They would just be replaced by the that year's new offering. That's what will probably happen this year as well. I don't believe the mint will break with that and offer 10 spouses at a time and sell 2012-dated coins into 2014.
They used to replace the previous year's Plats in April or May with the current production, but at this point they are still offering both the 2012 and 2013 Plats.
The Mint has always tried to squeeze more blood out of the turnip, but their strategy for accomplishing this changes from time to time, based on their current management's "wisdom". The kicker is that the world is finite and changing a policy doesn't produce better yield every time. Even the Mint is aware of costs, and cost management is probably built into some type of management incentive.
What happens in most cases is that the coinage issues that don't make money are finally mothballed or retired. With the Spouses, the Mint doesn't have that luxury because the program has been congressionally mandated. That being the case, I think that they are making some mintage adjustments. If you were the Mint and had to produce the coins, how would you do it such that it didn't impact your operating statements as negatively when demand is down? The setup costs are comparable, and if they really did encounter finning problems with the strikings, where else is there to economize? >>
If by "making some mintage adjustments" you mean they will mint fewer 2013's than 2012's, I agree. The pace of sales for the current offerings are as dismal as ever. The mint clearly over-estimated demand for the 2012's.
<< <i>Does anyone know what's up with the sudden jump in 2013 W $50 AGE UNC sales? For many months the sales number just crept up very little each week and then, all of the sudden, the increase was dramatic. Does anyone know why? >>
Price temporarily fell back to a low of $1575 on a coin that was at the time the lowest mintage AGE of all time. Buyers (including the major sellers) all saw a money making opportunity at the same time. Note current weekly sales were minus 26 coins. While the return period for the week of the sudden jump has ended, I suspect more returns are filtering in via slow registered mail.
Rampant currency debasement will be the most important investment trend of this decade, and it will devastate most people.
- Nick Giambruno Buy dollar insurance now, because the policy will cost more as the dollar becomes worth less.
I have to say that it was a very pleasant surprise. The design is fantastic in person due to the depth of the design and the relief of the coin. Did anyone else get one? If so, what do you think?
When the most prominant feature in a design is a nose .................well you have issues.
Sure paid to be at the ANA!
I only buy the 5 oz P pucks I like. So far, bought the Perry and the Rushmore is on the way. I won't buy the Ft. McHenry because I hate the design, even though I live Baltimore. That was the one puck I was looking forward to buying.
Box of 20
<< <i>I think ericj96 has been "away" from these boards for too long..... >>
I so agree. His input is very much missed!!!
I so agree. His input is very much missed!!!
I'd like to see him post as well. However, he is still contributing in ways that are valuable, if you keep a copy of his book and use his analytical framework to update the more recent issues. His remarks concerning "deep keys" and his observations on the sales curve during the first 8 weeks of sales.............are still meaningful. There are other relationships within any given series that should be re-emphasized. Eric did his homework, and he laid out some interesting studies. Time to review the framework and to update it.
I knew it would happen.
Conversely, I see that the 95 W ASE in proof 69 is bringing $4500 when it was about $3100 just a few years ago.
I had not priced either of these in a while. I was very surprised by both.
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors.
A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages.
And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days.
100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking.
Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue
Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues.
I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months.
Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000.
Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc.
Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases.
In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most.
Almost certainly below 1,500.
Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units.
And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats.
<< <i>Simple math...........Consider...............
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors.
A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages.
And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days.
100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking.
Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue
Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues.
I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months.
Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000.
Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc.
Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases.
In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most.
Almost certainly below 1,500.
Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units.
And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats. >>
Thanks for the insightful post!
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
Thanks.
I think the 24,000 Jackie proofs (at $400 to $500) also act as a damper - many of the low-mintage burnished plats and spouses are matched by much lower mintages of their proof counterparts than the Jackie, so substitution is more expensive.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Box of 20
<< <i>The Jackie Robinson gold in PCGS/NGC MS69 has dropped to the mid-$1600s. Part of this might be because 12 of them have been auctioned on eBay during the past month or so. The low price also reflects the fact that the Jackie is no longer the low-mintage champ that it was 10 years ago - the mintage of 5,174 has been eclipsed by the 2006-08 burnished platinum eagles, along with many proof and uncirculated First Spouse coins.
I think the 24,000 Jackie proofs (at $400 to $500) also act as a damper - many of the low-mintage burnished plats and spouses are matched by much lower mintages of their proof counterparts than the Jackie, so substitution is more expensive. >>
I don't think that mintages are looked at across coins in that way - i.e., $5 gold unc. commems vs plats, etc.
Of note, for at least a couple of years after the super-low mintage plats of '08 the Jackie Unc in MS70 was still bringing $4100+ on most every if not every sale.
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale.
I also think that despite the spate of Jackie sales in the last month on ebay (uncs) that the dispersion was better than many of the later "flipper delights". My opinion only, but following the coin since issue seems to support this.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>
<< <i>Simple math...........Consider...............
ASE proof collector base is large with a hard core group of 100,000+ collectors.
A group that appears to be stable or growing.
Just look at how quickly ANY ASE proof product sells out at 100K or greater mintages.
And this is with brief sale periods of 1-30 days.
100,000+ hard core group with just 30,000 well dispersed 1995-W ASE proofs to go around.
In contrast the real collector base for gold $5 commemoratives is apparently well below 8,000 and it appears to be shrinking.
Just look at last 3-4 gold $5 commemorative mint issues final sales numbers................sales trending down with each new issue
Collectors, dealers and flippers combined struggled to buy 6,000-9,000 each of the last several uncirculated gold issues.
I say struggled as these issues remained up for sale from mint for 6+ months.
Back out the dealers and flippers and you will find the remaining hard core "I've got to have one even if it commemorates John Crapper." group is likely now below 5,000.
Of those appx. 5,000 once they each have one Jackie they are done.
Same math applies to gold spouse, half dollar clads, etc.
Both are series with apparently shrinking hard core collector bases.
In the case of the gold spouses I believe the number of "I've got to have one of each for my collection." group is likely no more than 1,000 at most.
Almost certainly below 1,500.
Consider the 2012 issues..................12 months of sales to reach barely reach 2,500-3,500 units.
And a lot of those 2,500-3,500 sales are speculators trying to get lucky with an unexpected short struck issue.
The only modern areas that seem to be holding their collector base are the ASEs, gold buffalo, eagles and perhaps the plats. >>
Thanks for the insightful post!
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
Thanks. >>
Thanks for the insightful post!
What I don't understand is why the recent changes? I've been following the Jackie Unc and the 95 W since about '08. The prices for both have remained fairly constant in that time until, it seems, pretty recently. The prices in Eric's book have been representative of those reaslzed since '08 and likely prior as his book was published in '08. Has the collector base for ASEs increased sharply in that time or the base for the $5 gold commems dropped so sharply in that time so as to account for a nearly 50% decrese in the price of the Jackie Unc?
I think that Jackie is likely to remain King as so many pay attention to sales numbers now and the off-sale dates are usually known. Thus, I don't think that a drop in price is due to thinking that it will be unseated.
Interestingly, the CVS UNC, with a mintage higher than the SSB UNC has held it's value pretty well. (This also might make the SSB Unc a nice hold).
So, while I understand your very well articulated points, I don't understand why the change to the status quo of the last 5+ years has changed recently.
Thanks. >>
Last I heard the CVC unc. had a mintage around 6,700 and the SSB unc. was over 7,000
I'm sure there are many opinions but even with recent price drop the rather dramatic rise in PM prices over last 10 years has likely priced many out of the gold and platinum market.
A higher percentage of new collectors likely go for silver proofs at $30-$50 each rather than gold or platinum based products.
Consider the long time historic ratio in price of 30 to 1 for gold to silver has for the last few years been closer to 60 to 1.
When I estimated 100,00 hard core ASE collectors I considered that the mint year in and year out sells 600,000-800,000 proofs.
If you collect ASEs you can get an example of each coin and even 5 coin sets for $600 or less with exception of the 1995-W proof.
ASEs have a nice common design with now several variations even a novice can appreciate like Proof vs. Burnished/unc vs. Reverse Proof.
Even different mint marks and a varity.
For the $5 gold commemoratives cheapest prices start at $300+ just based on todays melt value.
Only common thread for the gold $5 is the color and size.
The spouses..........well you know that answer.
In the end it is wise to remember it is not mintage alone that matters but rather mintage in relation to demand.
<< <i>
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale. >>
The off-sale date could be sooner if the Mint's inventory is depleted. We don't know how many unc. Generals were initially struck, but that number is likely the maximum net mintage. I doubt that the Mint would strike additional ones this late in the year, with all the preparations for 2014 coinage looming. The Generals 3-coin proof set is already sold out, and no additional sets will be struck.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>The general commem may come in lower than the Jackie possibly this year. And who knows about future modern gold commems. >>
What makes that unlikely, IMHO, is that the off-sale date of 12/31 is known. So, just like the SSB Unc, if it stays low a large amount of sales will be all but assured before it goes off sale. >>
The off-sale date could be sooner if the Mint's inventory is depleted. We don't know how many unc. Generals were initially struck, but that number is likely the maximum net mintage. I doubt that the Mint would strike additional ones this late in the year, with all the preparations for 2014 coinage looming. The Generals 3-coin proof set is already sold out, and no additional sets will be struck. >>