I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
I agree with this. These are more like a medallion set that just happen to have denominations affixed to them. How avidly do people chase Franklin Mint series? The answer would seem to give a good indication of the First Spouse popularity going forward.
The dynamic is much different for the $5 commem series. In fact, it's hard to even look at these as a series. I cherry pick these issues based on my interest in each individual coin, and would guess that most others do as well. Just because I loved the Smithsonian issue doesn't mean I'm going to spring for the Star Spangled Banner issue and so forth. How many of you think similarly?
I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
Rick! It is so good to hear from you!...... I agree with you.
Yes at the end of the day I think the series could stay very flat for a number of years unless someone with strong hands just come along, picks a hand full of the lower mintage issues and promotes them.
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
I agree with this. These are more like a medallion set that just happen to have denominations affixed to them. How avidly do people chase Franklin Mint series? The answer would seem to give a good indication of the First Spouse popularity going forward.
The dynamic is much different for the $5 commem series. In fact, it's hard to even look at these as a series. I cherry pick these issues based on my interest in each individual coin, and would guess that most others do as well. Just because I loved the Smithsonian issue doesn't mean I'm going to spring for the Star Spangled Banner issue and so forth. How many of you think similarly? >>
This pick what you like behavior is typical of unstable design series structures. What you are seeing is very common behavior and its real.
<< <i>I watch the first spouse coins and think about their structure and how they may turn out frequenty. If you guys are at the FUN show come on by for my lecture on Thrusday January 9th in room W-232-C. One of the topics covered at lenght are the first spouse and $5 gold commems. If you can't make the lecture come on by booth 1423 and see me.
Hope you guys are doing well. >>
Hi Eric-
Happy New Year. SO great to have you back!!!!!
Will you be giving this talk at any of the Balto. shows?
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Collecting modern coins is like playing a coordination game. You need to have some focal point (aka Schelling point) for people to coordinate on. In most cases, low mintage serves as focal point for coordination. Just a game-theoretic perspective.
To the free man, the country is the collection of individuals who compose it, not something over and above them. -M. Friedman
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
Hi Eric-
What do you think of Hayes and Garfield?
As we get to the more modern Spouses these may well remain the key and runner up (of course, which is which remains to be settled), not to mention having the lowest mintage of any U.S. coin since 1915. They are pretty reasonably priced at this point. Do you think that they're worth picking up at today's prices?
At some point the #2 unc. $5 MacArthur should fetch a higher price than the #3 Capitol Visitors Center (currently $1300+). At least 1k lower mintage and more well-known historical subject.
<< <i>At some point the #2 unc. $5 MacArthur should fetch a higher price than the #3 Capitol Visitors Center (currently $1300+). At least 1k lower mintage and more well-known historical subject. >>
This will probably be true, but I don't think it's by any means a foregone conclusion. I'd rather have a more attractive coin with a 1000 higher mintage, and my guess is that others will, too. Of course if the hype over the Generals coin stays furious, that will drive up the buying and flipping frenzy...
16,000 is a good number for proof gold commems but the much higher mintages of the proofs compared to the uncs tend to suppress the proofs. They are low risk thats for certain.
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
Hi Eric-
What do you think of Hayes and Garfield?
As we get to the more modern Spouses these may well remain the key and runner up (of course, which is which remains to be settled), not to mention having the lowest mintage of any U.S. coin since 1915. They are pretty reasonably priced at this point. Do you think that they're worth picking up at today's prices?
Thanks for any thoughts! >>
If they can hold onto the lowest mintage slot after all the dust has settled and final final numbers are in the Red Book 4 years from now I think they are a good buy at todays prices. The hard part for me is predicting final mintages and then you throw on the random aspect so often seen with unstable design series it makes me reluctant to pay meaningful premiums for back dates other than maybe the seated liberty unc issue.
<< <i>I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Collecting modern coins is like playing a coordination game. You need to have some focal point (aka Schelling point) for people to coordinate on. In most cases, low mintage serves as focal point for coordination. Just a game-theoretic perspective. >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Answer: I like them just dont get caught in the close out spike pricing behavior like we covered in the first book. Dont chase hot stuff. Be there early not late and if you are late then lay off until reality sets back in and prices moderate. Low mintage $5 gold is a great by at 1.5 times melt. The 2011S silver eagle is a great example of this. Great coin, GREAT fundamentals. Everyone saw it and then lost interest but the reality that is a killer thats cheap. Same with really good $5 gold commens or any of this other material. If you miss it out of the gate either lay back and wait for the next opportunity or see if it cools off and go buy some.
The Mint continues to show a tendency to produce "new and special finishes" or new varieties - the Silver Eagle Series being a prime example with the special sets, multiple mintmarks, enhanced uncirculated and reverse proof issues. It's getting harder and harder to know what has relative value with each new issue. How soon before collectors are saturated with too many nuances to keep track of?
This is an old concern, but it does now appear that the value of older issues routinely get cannibalized with each new variety. We see this with low mintage Canadian issues all the time. What's your take on this?
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It has become a flipper's market with new issues (thanks to ebay) and the mint is satisfying that demand. The mint realizes a lot of the flipper's profits come back to the mint in other purchases.
Ebay is job security for US mint employees.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>It has become a flipper's market with new issues (thanks to ebay) and the mint is satisfying that demand. The mint realizes a lot of the flipper's profits come back to the mint in other purchases. >>
I believe to hit it on the head!!! What I can't figure out is why they don't cater more to the fipper with their subscription service. If those coins would ship first, they would see the subscriptions increase and thereby give a better projection on quantities to strike (IMP).
The latest mint sales report shows the *proof* 2012 Caroline Harrison First Spouse mintage at 3,002 as of December 29. Unless there was a big sales spike before noon December 31, this coin will become the lowest mintage U.S. proof coin of the 21st Century, with the two Frances Cleveland coins close behind.
Caroline Harrison looks good to me... Let's enjoy it for what it is-- an attractive (IMO) half Oz proof gold coin with some crazy low mintages for a modern proof. It might take a while to unseat her.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
Caroline Harrison looks good to me... Let's enjoy it for what it is-- an attractive (IMO) half Oz proof gold coin with some crazy low mintages for a modern proof. It might take a while to unseat her.
I bought both the MS and PF Caroline Harrison right before sales closed, but unless the mint had produced at least 3500 of any of the 2013 proofs, I believe she could be unseated as early as this year at the end of sales for the 2013 gold spouses.
This is 2014 and there will not be a second minting run for any of the 2013s. Did the mint decide to create a buffer since they offered these late in 2013 or did they base the 2013 mintage on the 2012 years sales which were at historic lows? This could be a reason for low sales on the final day the 2012s were offered and of course lack of collector demand.
<< <i>I bought both the MS and PF Caroline Harrison right before sales closed, but unless the mint had produced at least 3500 of any of the 2013 proofs, I believe she could be unseated as early as this year at the end of sales for the 2013 gold spouses.
This is 2014 and there will not be a second minting run for any of the 2013s. Did the mint decide to create a buffer since they offered these late in 2013 or did they base the 2013 mintage on the 2012 years sales which were at historic lows? This could be a reason for low sales on the final day the 2012s were offered and of course lack of collector demand. >>
In part, the Mint may be anticipating demand based on the public's familiarity with each president whose wife is being honored. This occurred with the Mary Todd Lincoln coin - stated issue limits were several thousand higher than those for the other 2010 coins in the series.
If this is the case, the Mint may have struck at least 3,500 proofs of each of the 2013 Spouses. McKinley, (Theodore) Roosevelt, Taft and Wilson are somewhat more familiar presidential names to the American people than Arthur, Cleveland and Harrison. It also should be noted that the 2012 Alice Paul proof did sell out with a mintage of just over 3,500, even though she was not the wife of a president, and likely was no more well known than any of the women honored on the other 2012 coins.
Caroline Harrison First Spouse is the new proof champ of the 21st Century. Only 3046 sold! And this number is likely very close to the final total, since the coin did not sell out before the order deadline.
Cleveland 1 and 2 are close behind, so I expect all three to do well over time. Proofs are much more popular with collectors than uncs., and the Harrison proof defines the maximum number of complete sets of First Spouse proofs that can ever be assembled. I expect it to remain the key, since we are entering the era of the spouses of more well-known 20th century presidents.
MacArthur unc. is at 5658, solidly in 2nd place among the $5 commems, and the final total will likely go lower.
Thank you to all who have contributed to this thread over the years. I always try to check in on this thread every couple of weeks.
The 5 oz ATB's at the Mint seem to be gaining some steam with sell outs, etc... what are your thoughts on this series and will the momentum help the 2010's?
I have 10 of the 2010 bullions that got slabbed BU and I am wondering if I should send them in to be graded.
I also have 2 each of the 2010 P Pucks and a couple that might be the light satin finish that I was thinking about sending in but whenever I look at the PCGS price guide the prices are constantly moving down.
Thoughts?
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The pucks are very interesting speculatively. I and a lot of other people like them, even though I don't really think of them as coins. Collectibles, yes. Coins, no.
Unless you want to sell them, I don't see any reason to go to the expense of slabbing them. I prefer stuff in OGP anyway, though that doesn't apply to the bullion versions. I have lost a lot of potential money with my beliefs in OGP!
One thing about the sales of the pucks is that they are awesome gift items, and that makes me wonder how many really end up in collector circles. It could be these end up with really good dispersion, which might keep the prices up. I know I'm already sorry I didn't get all of last year's issues from the Mint, but I do covet the ones that I have. I'd have to say these are winners all the way around, and will be a lot of fun to watch.
<< <i>The pucks are very interesting speculatively. I and a lot of other people like them, even though I don't really think of them as coins. Collectibles, yes. Coins, no.
Unless you want to sell them, I don't see any reason to go to the expense of slabbing them. I prefer stuff in OGP anyway, though that doesn't apply to the bullion versions. I have lost a lot of potential money with my beliefs in OGP!
One thing about the sales of the pucks is that they are awesome gift items, and that makes me wonder how many really end up in collector circles. It could be these end up with really good dispersion, which might keep the prices up. I know I'm already sorry I didn't get all of last year's issues from the Mint, but I do covet the ones that I have. I'd have to say these are winners all the way around, and will be a lot of fun to watch. >>
Thanks for the reply Grits. I have no intentions of selling but I am terrible at grading myself and I love looking at price guides, magazine adds, etc.. from different years and seeing how the prices are doing and it's tough to do without grades assigned. Plus I have 10 pucks that I had graded and wouldn't mind trying to put together a matching set of the 2010 bullion while they are still relatively cheap. It seems like mint versions are gaining steam and that should help the 2010 bullion in the long run. Now whether that's 5 years or 20 years I am not sure.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
The uncirculated American Silver eagles with the W mint mark and graded MS70 with first strike labels, seem to be rising in price lately. Looks like Eric was right about these!!!
Update on the widely overlooked Limited Edition Silver Proof Sets:
A 2012-W PR69 First Strike Silver Eagle from the set just sold on eBay for $799! Two others sold a few weeks ago in the $500 range.
2012 sets in OGP are fetching $260 to $280 each on eBay. The 2013 set is still available from the mint for $139.95.
A total of 50,000 of the 2012 sets were sold, and the issue limit for 2013 is also 50,000. Around 35,000 of the 2013 sets have been ordered so far, with deliveries expected sometime in February.
<< <i>The uncirculated American Silver eagles with the W mint mark and graded MS70 with first strike labels, seem to be rising in price lately. Looks like Eric was right about these!!! >>
I did. The mintage trend keeps going down, but bullion sales are staying robust. I think it's almost inevitable that when the final low mintages are established, the market will recognize them and premiums will rise. I was wishing for them to be "deep keys" (as in ericj's terminology), but I'll settle for these current low mintages.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It does look like the trend is lower and lower but on these I am thinking that 2013 could be hard to beat because the 4-coin set sales were unusually low or at least it seemed that way to me. As usual though you can never tell what the Mint will do until they do it.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I was wishing for them to be "deep keys" (as in ericj's terminology), but I'll settle for these current low mintages. >>
jmski, I don't know if we will get "deep keys" any more since the sales data is published nearly current. It would have to be a "hated" coin that people want no part of to ignore key mintage (sales) data. Otherwise the low numbers spur on more sales and that is why we may find any new low mintage king today to be close to the second place holder.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Coinsponge, I agree with what you say, especially in that we can never predict what the Mint's going to do and that a coin must be disliked in order to become a key. However, these things come and go, and another influence over mintages and sales figures is the economy. When the sales data for regular issue bullion is strong, but the data for "collector bullion" is weak, it must mean something.
It could be that nobody is interested in paying the Mint's high premiums for "collector bullion" anymore, and it could also mean that the Mint has milked the cow until it's run dry. Nevertheless, as you observed - the low numbers can also spur more sales in subsequent issues and in last-minute orders. That's been the case for years, which makes me think that the economy is the trump card being played in the background, because even though there aren't any "deep keys" being produced, the numbers drift yet lower.
In 2004, in 2006, and then in 2008 I thought that we'd hit the low point in the trough. Apparently not. Another factor remains that the Mint (and Congress) continue to proliferate "too many" issues. Even though the Mint had to drop several varieties and finishes after 2008, they still continue to pump out more and more new finishes and varieties. It's as if they never learned a thing about the capacity of collectors to absorb all of their stuff. So, where a mintage of 50,000 coins used to be dangerously low in numbers, now it takes a sub-10,000 mintage number to get people's attention.
Somewhere down the road, the lowest lows will be in. You just never know.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
It seems the flippers (including dealers) who jumped in to get quick profits on the low mintages are getting burned with each new low - if they did not turn the product during a narrow window of opportunity. So how many real collectors are left to buy all of those Mint products? New lows may be around to stay until overpriced products become more affordable or gold prices go high enough to justify the premiums.
Good points made. I think that there is some hesitation in paying a larger premium over spot when the gold quote is stagnant or in a slight downdraft. When it is going up there is a comfort level believing that the gold price will absorb the premium in a short time period. This may be the biggest factor working now. At least with lower numbers I like to think that there is some downside protection from a decline in gold even if it is not an absolute key. The biggest threat to that might be continued lower sales in future years but I am going on a limb to predict that 2014 will have higher numbers but maybe not by much. Hope no one feeds this back to me next year if I am wrong.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
As we know, spot price is determined in the paper futures market. Normal premiums over spot (not including additional premium for low mintages or top grades) will continue to grow as a result of physical metal distancing itself from a growing supply of watered down paper metal (futures). If the the paper continues to increase faster than the supply of physical look for physical to eventually establish its own pricing mechanism that differs from the current "spot + premium."
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>As we know, spot price is determined in the paper futures market. Normal premiums over spot (not including additional premium for low mintages or top grades) will continue to grow as a result of physical metal distancing itself from a growing supply of watered down paper metal (futures). If the the paper continues to increase faster than the supply of physical look for physical to eventually establish its own pricing mechanism that differs from the current "spot + premium." >>
That might be the point they make buying and selling of physical illegal since the govt seems to prefer paper anyway. Paper is easier to control and manipulate. Of course they probably would have some exceptions for collectible coins. I could see them make everyone turn in their physical gold for paper gold stock shares. Maybe those bullion coins with mint marks are worth the extra premium.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Comments
<< <i>Eric,
I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
I agree with this. These are more like a medallion set that just happen to have denominations affixed to them. How avidly do people chase Franklin Mint series? The answer would seem to give a good indication of the First Spouse popularity going forward.
The dynamic is much different for the $5 commem series. In fact, it's hard to even look at these as a series. I cherry pick these issues based on my interest in each individual coin, and would guess that most others do as well. Just because I loved the Smithsonian issue doesn't mean I'm going to spring for the Star Spangled Banner issue and so forth. How many of you think similarly?
<< <i>Eric,
I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
Rick! It is so good to hear from you!...... I agree with you.
Yes at the end of the day I think the series could stay very flat for a number of years unless someone with strong hands just come along, picks a hand full of the lower mintage issues and promotes them.
Eric
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric
<< <i>
<< <i>Eric,
I have been thinking about the first spouse coins as well and the thought that keeps recurring to me is they are the 3cn of their time. Meaning, there were not many produced, but the demand will remain low for a myriad of reasons. The obvious difference is cost, but set aside the metal content and you have two series that are unloved. Besides those who value the bullion content as well as those who are collecting the liberty sub set, the series has little appeal.
If gold prices settle back to the introductory level when the first spouse series was initiated, there may be a few more people who get involved, but absent that, I see this series as a very small niche with very limited collecting interest, just like the three cent nickel, particularly the proof versions.
Just MHO. >>
I agree with this. These are more like a medallion set that just happen to have denominations affixed to them. How avidly do people chase Franklin Mint series? The answer would seem to give a good indication of the First Spouse popularity going forward.
The dynamic is much different for the $5 commem series. In fact, it's hard to even look at these as a series. I cherry pick these issues based on my interest in each individual coin, and would guess that most others do as well. Just because I loved the Smithsonian issue doesn't mean I'm going to spring for the Star Spangled Banner issue and so forth. How many of you think similarly? >>
This pick what you like behavior is typical of unstable design series structures. What you are seeing is very common behavior and its real.
Good to see you back on the board.
BTW, it looks like we have a new commem BU half king.....if the numbers hold.....37,967 pieces
vs. Army at 39,461
<< <i>I watch the first spouse coins and think about their structure and how they may turn out frequenty. If you guys are at the FUN show come on by for my lecture on Thrusday January 9th in room W-232-C. One of the topics covered at lenght are the first spouse and $5 gold commems. If you can't make the lecture come on by booth 1423 and see me.
Hope you guys are doing well. >>
Hi Eric-
Happy New Year. SO great to have you back!!!!!
Will you be giving this talk at any of the Balto. shows?
All the best,
R-
<< <i>Eric-
Good to see you back on the board.
BTW, it looks like we have a new commem BU half king.....if the numbers hold.....37,967 pieces
vs. Army at 39,461 >>
Same for the MacArthur $5 Proof but everyone's attention is on the #2 unc coin. Any thoughts on this Eric?
Eric >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Collecting modern coins is like playing a coordination game. You need to have some focal point (aka Schelling point) for people to coordinate on. In most cases, low mintage serves as focal point for coordination. Just a game-theoretic perspective.
<< <i>
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
Hi Eric-
What do you think of Hayes and Garfield?
As we get to the more modern Spouses these may well remain the key and runner up (of course, which is which remains to be settled), not to mention having the lowest mintage of any U.S. coin since 1915. They are pretty reasonably priced at this point. Do you think that they're worth picking up at today's prices?
Thanks for any thoughts!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>At some point the #2 unc. $5 MacArthur should fetch a higher price than the #3 Capitol Visitors Center (currently $1300+). At least 1k lower mintage and more well-known historical subject. >>
This will probably be true, but I don't think it's by any means a foregone conclusion. I'd rather have a more attractive coin with a 1000 higher mintage, and my guess is that others will, too. Of course if the hype over the Generals coin stays furious, that will drive up the buying and flipping frenzy...
Translates FUN and Chicago only at this point.
Thanks for asking.
Eric
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>At some point, absolute mintage numbers have to come into play. In the current economy many people who would like to collect modern commems cannot afford to do so, resulting in abnormally low mintages for many coins. When the economy eventually recovers, demand will increase for many of the sub-3,000 mintage First Spouses and sub-10,000 mintage modern gold commems. >>
I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
Hi Eric-
What do you think of Hayes and Garfield?
As we get to the more modern Spouses these may well remain the key and runner up (of course, which is which remains to be settled), not to mention having the lowest mintage of any U.S. coin since 1915. They are pretty reasonably priced at this point. Do you think that they're worth picking up at today's prices?
Thanks for any thoughts! >>
If they can hold onto the lowest mintage slot after all the dust has settled and final final numbers are in the Red Book 4 years from now I think they are a good buy at todays prices. The hard part for me is predicting final mintages and then you throw on the random aspect so often seen with unstable design series it makes me reluctant to pay meaningful premiums for back dates other than maybe the seated liberty unc issue.
<< <i>I agree with this but the hard part for me is I have limited funds and its tough to know which first spouse to target. The $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages are cheap and easy to see key and semi key dates and they have a great deal of stagger to the mintage chart and huge total populations.
Eric >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Collecting modern coins is like playing a coordination game. You need to have some focal point (aka Schelling point) for people to coordinate on. In most cases, low mintage serves as focal point for coordination. Just a game-theoretic perspective. >>
So do $5 gold commems with sub 8000 mintages look promising at this point?
Answer: I like them just dont get caught in the close out spike pricing behavior like we covered in the first book. Dont chase hot stuff. Be there early not late and if you are late then lay off until reality sets back in and prices moderate. Low mintage $5 gold is a great by at 1.5 times melt. The 2011S silver eagle is a great example of this. Great coin, GREAT fundamentals. Everyone saw it and then lost interest but the reality that is a killer thats cheap. Same with really good $5 gold commens or any of this other material. If you miss it out of the gate either lay back and wait for the next opportunity or see if it cools off and go buy some.
The Mint continues to show a tendency to produce "new and special finishes" or new varieties - the Silver Eagle Series being a prime example with the special sets, multiple mintmarks, enhanced uncirculated and reverse proof issues. It's getting harder and harder to know what has relative value with each new issue. How soon before collectors are saturated with too many nuances to keep track of?
This is an old concern, but it does now appear that the value of older issues routinely get cannibalized with each new variety. We see this with low mintage Canadian issues all the time. What's your take on this?
I knew it would happen.
Ebay is job security for US mint employees.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>It has become a flipper's market with new issues (thanks to ebay) and the mint is satisfying that demand. The mint realizes a lot of the flipper's profits come back to the mint in other purchases. >>
I believe to hit it on the head!!! What I can't figure out is why they don't cater more to the fipper with their subscription service. If those coins would ship first, they would see the subscriptions increase and thereby give a better projection on quantities to strike (IMP).
I knew it would happen.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Well, just Love coins, period.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>I normally just go to shows that KP or MCM let me tag along.
Translates FUN and Chicago only at this point.
Thanks for asking.
Eric >>
Thanks so much!
I would be great to see you - and MCM for that matter - in Balto.
On another subject...do you ever plan another edition on your book?
So great to have you back!!
<< <i>". . . the lowest mintage U.S. proof coin of the 21st Century." >>
I do believe he missed the 21st part!
I bought both the MS and PF Caroline Harrison right before sales closed, but unless the mint had produced at least 3500 of any of the 2013 proofs, I believe she could be unseated as early as this year at the end of sales for the 2013 gold spouses.
This is 2014 and there will not be a second minting run for any of the 2013s. Did the mint decide to create a buffer since they offered these late in 2013 or did they base the 2013 mintage on the 2012 years sales which were at historic lows? This could be a reason for low sales on the final day the 2012s were offered and of course lack of collector demand.
Box of 20
<< <i>Any updated numbers on the 2013 W ASE uncs? >>
204,386 as of Jan. 2.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>I bought both the MS and PF Caroline Harrison right before sales closed, but unless the mint had produced at least 3500 of any of the 2013 proofs, I believe she could be unseated as early as this year at the end of sales for the 2013 gold spouses.
This is 2014 and there will not be a second minting run for any of the 2013s. Did the mint decide to create a buffer since they offered these late in 2013 or did they base the 2013 mintage on the 2012 years sales which were at historic lows? This could be a reason for low sales on the final day the 2012s were offered and of course lack of collector demand. >>
In part, the Mint may be anticipating demand based on the public's familiarity with each president whose wife is being honored. This occurred with the Mary Todd Lincoln coin - stated issue limits were several thousand higher than those for the other 2010 coins in the series.
If this is the case, the Mint may have struck at least 3,500 proofs of each of the 2013 Spouses. McKinley, (Theodore) Roosevelt, Taft and Wilson are somewhat more familiar presidential names to the American people than Arthur, Cleveland and Harrison. It also should be noted that the 2012 Alice Paul proof did sell out with a mintage of just over 3,500, even though she was not the wife of a president, and likely was no more well known than any of the women honored on the other 2012 coins.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>Any updated numbers on the 2013 W ASE uncs? >>
204,386 as of Jan. 2. >>
Thanks comrade derryb.
Link
Caroline Harrison First Spouse is the new proof champ of the 21st Century. Only 3046 sold! And this number is likely very close to the final total, since the coin did not sell out before the order deadline.
Cleveland 1 and 2 are close behind, so I expect all three to do well over time. Proofs are much more popular with collectors than uncs., and the Harrison proof defines the maximum number of complete sets of First Spouse proofs that can ever be assembled. I expect it to remain the key, since we are entering the era of the spouses of more well-known 20th century presidents.
MacArthur unc. is at 5658, solidly in 2nd place among the $5 commems, and the final total will likely go lower.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The 5 oz ATB's at the Mint seem to be gaining some steam with sell outs, etc... what are your thoughts on this series and will the momentum help the 2010's?
I have 10 of the 2010 bullions that got slabbed BU and I am wondering if I should send them in to be graded.
I also have 2 each of the 2010 P Pucks and a couple that might be the light satin finish that I was thinking about sending in but whenever I look at the PCGS price guide the prices are constantly moving down.
Thoughts?
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Unless you want to sell them, I don't see any reason to go to the expense of slabbing them. I prefer stuff in OGP anyway, though that doesn't apply to the bullion versions. I have lost a lot of potential money with my beliefs in OGP!
One thing about the sales of the pucks is that they are awesome gift items, and that makes me wonder how many really end up in collector circles. It could be these end up with really good dispersion, which might keep the prices up. I know I'm already sorry I didn't get all of last year's issues from the Mint, but I do covet the ones that I have. I'd have to say these are winners all the way around, and will be a lot of fun to watch.
<< <i>The pucks are very interesting speculatively. I and a lot of other people like them, even though I don't really think of them as coins. Collectibles, yes. Coins, no.
Unless you want to sell them, I don't see any reason to go to the expense of slabbing them. I prefer stuff in OGP anyway, though that doesn't apply to the bullion versions. I have lost a lot of potential money with my beliefs in OGP!
One thing about the sales of the pucks is that they are awesome gift items, and that makes me wonder how many really end up in collector circles. It could be these end up with really good dispersion, which might keep the prices up. I know I'm already sorry I didn't get all of last year's issues from the Mint, but I do covet the ones that I have. I'd have to say these are winners all the way around, and will be a lot of fun to watch. >>
Thanks for the reply Grits. I have no intentions of selling but I am terrible at grading myself and I love looking at price guides, magazine adds, etc.. from different years and seeing how the prices are doing and it's tough to do without grades assigned. Plus I have 10 pucks that I had graded and wouldn't mind trying to put together a matching set of the 2010 bullion while they are still relatively cheap. It seems like mint versions are gaining steam and that should help the 2010 bullion in the long run. Now whether that's 5 years or 20 years I am not sure.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Looks like Eric was right about these!!!
A 2012-W PR69 First Strike Silver Eagle from the set just sold on eBay for $799! Two others sold a few weeks ago in the $500 range.
2012 sets in OGP are fetching $260 to $280 each on eBay. The 2013 set is still available from the mint for $139.95.
A total of 50,000 of the 2012 sets were sold, and the issue limit for 2013 is also 50,000. Around 35,000 of the 2013 sets have been ordered so far, with deliveries expected sometime in February.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>The uncirculated American Silver eagles with the W mint mark and graded MS70 with first strike labels, seem to be rising in price lately.
Looks like Eric was right about these!!! >>
Liberty Coin had a recent $5 price increase.
Still the cheapest on ebay
I have had success in the past negotiating a better telephone price purchasing from their website.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
I knew it would happen.
Modern gold needs a rise in gold spot to see better prices.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
jmski, I don't know if we will get "deep keys" any more since the sales data is published nearly current. It would have to be a "hated" coin that people want no part of to ignore key mintage (sales) data. Otherwise the low numbers spur on more sales and that is why we may find any new low mintage king today to be close to the second place holder.
It could be that nobody is interested in paying the Mint's high premiums for "collector bullion" anymore, and it could also mean that the Mint has milked the cow until it's run dry. Nevertheless, as you observed - the low numbers can also spur more sales in subsequent issues and in last-minute orders. That's been the case for years, which makes me think that the economy is the trump card being played in the background, because even though there aren't any "deep keys" being produced, the numbers drift yet lower.
In 2004, in 2006, and then in 2008 I thought that we'd hit the low point in the trough. Apparently not. Another factor remains that the Mint (and Congress) continue to proliferate "too many" issues. Even though the Mint had to drop several varieties and finishes after 2008, they still continue to pump out more and more new finishes and varieties. It's as if they never learned a thing about the capacity of collectors to absorb all of their stuff. So, where a mintage of 50,000 coins used to be dangerously low in numbers, now it takes a sub-10,000 mintage number to get people's attention.
Somewhere down the road, the lowest lows will be in. You just never know.
I knew it would happen.
The only way to make an economic system truly stable is to permit the free market to take over.
<< <i>As we know, spot price is determined in the paper futures market. Normal premiums over spot (not including additional premium for low mintages or top grades) will continue to grow as a result of physical metal distancing itself from a growing supply of watered down paper metal (futures). If the the paper continues to increase faster than the supply of physical look for physical to eventually establish its own pricing mechanism that differs from the current "spot + premium." >>
That might be the point they make buying and selling of physical illegal since the govt seems to prefer paper anyway. Paper is easier to control and manipulate. Of course they probably would have some exceptions for collectible coins. I could see them make everyone turn in their physical gold for paper gold stock shares. Maybe those bullion coins with mint marks are worth the extra premium.