<< <i>I hope no one minds but the following post was on another thread but I believe it belongs here............. 2manycoins2fewfunds __________________________________________________________________________________
<< Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless?
(Disclaimer #1........Before I start let me say I do NOT collect Silver eagles..........if anything based on holdings you'd say I'm a platinum collector. With that disclaimer let me try to answer Wondercoins question)
(Disclaimer #2.....following discussion is for raw coins avoiding inherent confusion of FS vs. Non FS, PR69 vs PR70, PCGS vs. NGC vs ANAC) ...............................
Those 11,000 2011 platinum coins have a cost of acqusition of appox. $22 million
Entry level is over $2,000 per coin annually.
Based on these numbers we can say at most there are currently only 10K-12K active platinum collectors who have the interest and funds to invest in 1 ounce platinum collectable coins on a recurring yearly basis.
The number of collectors with interest and funds to collect multiple years and in particular collect and hold more numerous prior years AND various denominations is almost certainly less than 10K.
This explains why there has not been more of an explosive rise in price for the rarest of platinum issues with mintages below 3,000.
Even for these coins the mis-match between total active APE collectors and coins available is only 3x-4x at most.
This relatively low mis-match ratio explains why for even the rarest APEs the price is at most little more than 3-4X the base price of the coin
NOW CONSIDER SILVER EAGLES...................
Not even considering the bullion silver eagles lets just look at the annual proof eagle production numbers as a rough measure of interest.
Very little reason to hoard proof silver eagles............numbers sold likely is as good a measure of depth of ASE collecting market as is the annual Platinum proof sales ian indication of the platinum collector market.
So....what do the proof silver eagle annual sales show??
800,000 potential silver eagle collectors based on 800,000+ annual silver eagle proof sales.
Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins.
That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE.
For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base.
This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example.
Conclusion.........When considering entry cost, annual cost to continue a series, cost to try to complete a series and the size of collector base to various mintages, the ASE collector market has far better fundamentals than the APE collector market.
This same exercise can be applied to the First Spouse collector market where based on annual sales the true collector base (Those willing to buy every new offering) is almost certainly below 4,000-3,500.
Here the mis-match between collector base and lowest mintage is likely no more than 2 to 1.
Unless there is a very rare FS in the future or a significant expansion in FS collector base than the relative price performance of current rarer examples vs. base coins may be rather muted.
Always remember Price is not a product of mintage alone.
***********************
Relative rarity in set is one mighty important consideration and it shows up in the models.
Rather price is a product of mintage AND demand. >>
Yes, it is. I would have to say you'd have to break down the APE base further into denomination/size, however, to really get a read on what's going on.
The one-ounce coins have a different dynamic than others, people buy them just to have some bullion sittin' around. If you go to my favorite denomination, the half-ounce, it's more of a collector dynamic. And for these 1/2-ounce coins, I'd say the collector base can't be more than two or three thousand. The price of the '04 proof doesn't suggest there are more than 5,000 collectors. Instead, it probably indicates that the 5,000 coins minted are owned by 5,000 different people, many of whom just have them sittin' around, but also don't have any compelling interest in the series. Therefore, the supply is very low, and those 2-3,000 real collectors I mentioned don't all have one yet. To get one, the collectors just have to wait until a) they can afford it and b) some old codger cleans out his closet and decides to get rid of one of these things he picked up years ago at bargain basement prices from the Mint. Therefore demand is still greater than supply.
This also explains why the 2008 1/2-ounce proof price is so soft. By the time it was released, all current collectors were up and running. They grabbed coins directly from the Mint and they even bought extra for speculation. In other words, everyone who needs one has it already and there's no one to gobble up the extra supply.
Similar analysis should indicate how many collectors there are for the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce APEs, too.
I absolutely do not believe there are 800,000 collectors and doubt there are 100k. That part of the analysis just does not hold IMO. How many? Maybe 50,000....I do think that people hoard but at 100k may be hard to hold these at the prices quoted and I certainly do not see a long term value of 1500 for the RP.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I absolutely do not believe there are 800,000 collectors and doubt there are 100k. That part of the analysis just does not hold IMO. How many? Maybe 50,000....I do think that people hoard but at 100k may be hard to hold these at the prices quoted and I certainly do not see a long term value of 1500 for the RP. >>
A lot depends on how "collectors" is defined. The term can include everyone from the Registry Set completist to the accumulator with a few different dates and vague plans to complete the set someday.
If there were fewer than 100K Silver Eagle collectors, I doubt that the 2006 20th Anniversary Sets (mintage 250K) would be pushing $400.
I deliberatly avoided the subject of subsets and smaller denominations.
It was wordy enough.
Yes there are less than 800,000 true proof ASE collectors but there are similarly less than 12,000 true collectors of one ounce proof platinum coins, and likely less than 4,000-5,000 true FS collectors.
Many of us on this thread hold multiple examples of all of these series but the general point remains vald.
It is the ratio of numbers of collectors(demand) to available examples(mintage) that largely determines price.
At this time the ASE collector base is far, far larger than base for APEs and FS coins.
The mis-match or ratio between the size of a series collector base and the mintage or availabilty of examples of the rarer coins in those respective series........ASE-APE-FS....... explains why 1995-w ASE proof, 2006 and 2011 ASE reverse proof, and even 07/08 error ASE have shown on a relative basis better performance than similar examples of the rarer coins in APE and FS series.
As one who holds a very significant number of APEs I hope dynamics will change in future by having collector base for APEs expand but sadly the move to produce only 1 ounce coins at $2000 per was a move in wrong direction.
This high cost of entry for new collectors will limit future growth of APE collector base.
I would have prefered they drop the 1 ounce platinum slugs and continued the more popular fractional coins expanding the APE collector base with more affordable annual offerings.
About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
With that poor scan, I have my doubts that he's going to "brake even."
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
With that poor scan, I have my doubts that he's going to "brake even." >>
<< <i>This high cost of entry for new collectors will limit future growth of APE collector base. >>
At the same time though the fact the mint discontinued the fractional eagles means the sets have clear starting and ending points. That bodes well for new collectors in the future as the cost of completion has been established.
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
Registry madness! Am I the only one who thinks some of these buyers need to have their head examined? I mean, is a coin really worth $1000+ more because someone paid extra for the 'First Strike' designation? You can buy it for under $1000 as just a plain old 70 w/o the FS label, andhere's a 69 that sold for $308. The FS Louisa Adams in FS 70 is also going nutz these days.
No, you're not the only one who thinks First Strike madness is nuts. I would guess most people agree. HOWEVER, there do seem to be enough label collectors to keep them prices high! I've expected the whole thing to crash any day, but it doesn't seem to be.
Amen! How on Earth is there "ground level" demand for something that is not even real and is an artefact of labelling? I don't blame the fllippers, but the end buyer is truly an idiot - kind of like musical chairs, who gets stuck out when the music stops playing?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>No, you're not the only one who thinks First Strike madness is nuts. I would guess most people agree. HOWEVER, there do seem to be enough label collectors to keep them prices high! I've expected the whole thing to crash any day, but it doesn't seem to be. >>
GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
At the same time though the fact the mint discontinued the fractional eagles means the sets have clear starting and ending points. That bodes well for new collectors in the future as the cost of completion has been established.
Solo, I like the fact that the sets are more or less finished (we never really know for sure). Not only that, but at some point in the future (hard to know when) the Plats will appear on the radar of collectors. When that does happen, enough dispersion and melting will have taken place that it won't be that easy to assemble a set. The price will be secondary at that point.
In my estimation except for the 1 oz. coins, it does look like the abundance of extra Plats on the market has been thinning out for a few years already. I'm just sayin'. If the spot price for gold stays above the spot price for platinum for any amount of time, that would be even more bullish for the Platinum Eagles, in terms of numismatic premium. Again, my opinion.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
Looks like he "took a bath" in the tune of $300 - $400 ( depending what type of eBay account he has) You were fortunate to get your price.
"Bongo drive 1984 Lincoln that looks like old coin dug from ground."
Yes, I guess $1995 was a little high...although I think $1775 is a strong price for these.
EDITED: There's a lot of competition for people's dollars this time of year and the economy is still bad for a lot of folks...not to mention the little 25th ASE frenzy going on.
Speaking of the 25A, is there anyone who believes they aren't near the bottom in terms of price? Do you know the 20A ASE Proof, set mintage of 248K and total sales of 1,092,477, sells for $300-400 in 70? That just amazes me! The 25A set should be at least $5000 in five years...and that's if the bullion coin doesn't end up being a 100K coin and no other varieties or errors are found.
GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling.
<< <i>Speaking of the 25A, is there anyone who believes they aren't near the bottom in terms of price? Do you know the 20A ASE Proof, set mintage of 248K and total sales of 1,092,477, sells for $300-400 in 70? That just amazes me! >>
I think prices will continue to decline as more people receive their sets from NGC and list on eBay. I'l be honest and admit that I hope they decline another 20% or more from here so that way I can justify buying even more . I was very fortunate that all of my helpers got through so I'm sitting on more than one or two sealed boxes. Even though I could certainly use the money I'm not about to forgo what I see as tremendous upside for the sets compared to the quick flip of today. Those with a bit of patience and strong hands are going to win the race in the end so to speak...
<< <i>he 25A set should be at least $5000 in five years...and that's if the bullion coin doesn't end up being a 100K coin and no other varieties or errors are found. >>
That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
>>
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened.
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
>>
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
<< <i>If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
Neocoin --Sorry, didn't mean to offend. It was just my poor attempt at sarcasm.
The 25 anniversary set is a fine offering. They could be the kings of silver other than the 95w for a long time. If silver eagles ever get "promoted" just watch out. Maybe sell some to keep the rest for free but dont sell them all at these levels.
<< <i>Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
The sky high price I quoted was for 70 sets and it is just my opinion. We'll know in a few years whether I was right or wrong .
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
>>
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
Sorry, I was referring to PCGS 70 sets. >>
The PCGS 70 sets are currently in the $2000+ range. However, I looked at eBay about 1/2 hour ago and it seems the black stripe and signature label 70 sets are being dumped on the market right now. I believe dealers are clearing their stock because of the up and coming dump of the Flag labels.
It will be interesting to see what this does to the price levels.
<< <i>GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
in your first paragraph you call people morons and FOOLS.
next sentence: "I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
"
whats up with that?
edit: my apologies Neocoin... i did not realize you were quoting someone else` text. when i read your last post i didn`t realize it was "copy and paste".
This wonderful thread has been civil, on-topic, and very informative. I believe my previous sarcastic, and unnecessary, comments have somewhat sidetracked an otherwise excellent thread. I'm sorry for my digression and hope that we can ALL get back on topic.
my opinion is the PCGS 70 FS sets under $2G are becoming a bargain. You have to ask yourself if you see those 70 sets at $1500 or less in the next year......I dont. the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping. at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best.
<< <i>my opinion is the PCGS 70 FS sets under $2G are becoming a bargain. You have to ask yourself if you see those 70 sets at $1500 or less in the next year......I dont. the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping. at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best. >>
That's what I plan on doing. Given the fact that 2 out of the last 15 people that I've seen post their PCGS grading reports actually cleared 40% 70's, I plan on sending some of my cache to NGC. The pcgs pops may indicate one thing, but countless posters across multiple forums that I frequent have made it clear that PCGS is very stingy with 70's (as they should be IMO). Therefore I'm going to buy a couple Mercanti sets and regular FS flag sets sometime this month or the next (when it's clear prices are done dropping for the moment) and flip NGC sets to cover the difference. Just to be clear here I'm not saying anything negative about our awesome host as I find it refreshing that they can be counted on to grade stricter than most .
<< <i>my opinion is the PCGS 70 FS sets under $2G are becoming a bargain. You have to ask yourself if you see those 70 sets at $1500 or less in the next year......I dont. the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping. at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best. >>
That's what I plan on doing. Given the fact that 2 out of the last 15 people that I've seen post their PCGS grading reports actually cleared 40% 70's, I plan on sending some of my cache to NGC. The pcgs pops may indicate one thing, but countless posters across multiple forums that I frequent have made it clear that PCGS is very stingy with 70's (as they should be IMO). Therefore I'm going to buy a couple Mercanti sets and regular FS flag sets sometime this month or the next (when it's clear prices are done dropping for the moment) and flip NGC sets to cover the difference. Just to be clear here I'm not saying anything negative about our awesome host as I find it refreshing that they can be counted on to grade stricter than most . >>
I think the spread will grow on this issue down the road between PCGS and ATS. It will be fun to watch it play out
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
I believe for the actual collector of the ASEs, the flag label is more desirable as that will match what they have. IMOP, the black label/signature labels are a ship passing in the night. With all the black/signature sets on eBay right now, it will be interesting to see what this will do to the price. Some are being sold by forum dealers and it tells me they are taking the profit now rather than rolling the dice and see if they will become $5,000 sets. On the other hand, they may need to pay the bills and are selling enough to have inventory at little or no cost.
You have to remember, there are basically two types of "collectors" out there:
The raw collector who could care less about plastic (which I believe are the majority).
The graded collector. Within this group is the First Strike Flag collector. Now, will any of these collectors be interested in a black/signature FS label, maybe some. But I feel the majority will want the flag label to match the rest of their collection.
Of course, I am not talking about the "investor" who is only buying with the hopes of selling in the future for a profit. However, the investor needs to guess what the collector will want in the future. I guess the one thing that concerns me is if there are enough collectors to buy all the sets being listing on eBay and on dealer websites. And, if they are buying now, will the demand be there in the future to make these $5,000 sets?
I am still sitting on the fence about snatching up some 70 sets after selling all of my Mint sealed boxes (decided not to do the grading gamble this time). If they drop enough, I may buy a few sets. Time will only tell.
<< <i>So I guess you can get on bulk submission 25th sets with..........
FS Black label
FS Black label with signature
FS Classic with flag
Non FS traditional 25th Anniversary
Correct??.............Best choice for the $$?? >>
That is correct. I wonder if you can get a FS Black Label re-slabbed to a FS Flag label? Anyone know? Maybe Don can chime in on this and give us direction.
As for the best choice, are you a "collector" or an "Investor?"
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike.
I believe for the actual collector of the ASEs, the flag label is more desirable as that will match what they have. IMOP, the black label/signature labels are a ship passing in the night. With all the black/signature sets on eBay right now, it will be interesting to see what this will do to the price. Some are being sold by forum dealers and it tells me they are taking the profit now rather than rolling the dice and see if they will become $5,000 sets. On the other hand, they may need to pay the bills and are selling enough to have inventory at little or no cost.
You have to remember, there are basically two types of "collectors" out there:
The raw collector who could care less about plastic (which I believe are the majority).
The graded collector. Within this group is the First Strike Flag collector. Now, will any of these collectors be interested in a black/signature FS label, maybe some. But I feel the majority will want the flag label to match the rest of their collection.
Of course, I am not talking about the "investor" who is only buying with the hopes of selling in the future for a profit. However, the investor needs to guess what the collector will want in the future. I guess the one thing that concerns me is if there are enough collectors to buy all the sets being listing on eBay and on dealer websites. And, if they are buying now, will the demand be there in the future to make these $5,000 sets?
I am still sitting on the fence about snatching up some 70 sets after selling all of my Mint sealed boxes (decided not to do the grading gamble this time). If they drop enough, I may buy a few sets. Time will only tell. >>
Normally I would think that a First Strike Flag collector would want the First Strike Flag IF these were individual coins, but they are a set, so I think there is a desire to distinguish them as such. I don't think having the word "set" appended to the text in the First Strike Flag label distinguishes it enough, so I think collectors may prefer the black stripe labels.
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady.
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady. >>
You are correct about the fee for the black labels being more than for the FS flag label. That fee includes First Strike, which is why it's that expensive. FS Flag is $32/coin. Black stripe w/o signature is $40/coin. Mercanti signature is $50/coin.
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady. >>
You are correct about the fee for the black labels being more than for the FS flag label. That fee includes First Strike, which is why it's that expensive. FS Flag is $32/coin. Black stripe w/o signature is $40/coin. Mercanti signature is $50/coin. >>
Those prices are disgusting, it almost makes me want to quit collecting. I would rather pay more to have my coins graded if we could just get rid of all the first strike/early release stuff. The whole thing should be exposed on 60 minutes or dateline, etc.. I mean look at the 2010 ATB bullion all qualifying, IMHO none should have qualified.
Successful coin BST transactions with Gerard and segoja.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
Comments
<< <i>I hope no one minds but the following post was on another thread but I believe it belongs here.............
2manycoins2fewfunds
__________________________________________________________________________________
<< Is anyone ever going to catch wind of the 2011 1 oz proof platinum coins with about 11,500 in total sales (15,000 max mintage) with no MS platinum for the year, with no 1/10, 1/4 or 1/2 oz coins for the year in either MS or proof ... meaning there are only 11,500 sold thus far of any US platinum coin for 2011 that show the year 2011 on them. Yet, they trade about 10% over melt to this day? How exciting can I get for the 100,000 mintage coins when the 12,000 mintage coins are near worthless?
Wondercoin
P.S. Sorry for the "rant" >>
..............................................................................................................................................................................
(Disclaimer #1........Before I start let me say I do NOT collect Silver eagles..........if anything based on holdings you'd say I'm a platinum collector. With that disclaimer let me try to answer Wondercoins question)
(Disclaimer #2.....following discussion is for raw coins avoiding inherent confusion of FS vs. Non FS, PR69 vs PR70, PCGS vs. NGC vs ANAC)
...............................
Those 11,000 2011 platinum coins have a cost of acqusition of appox. $22 million
Entry level is over $2,000 per coin annually.
Based on these numbers we can say at most there are currently only 10K-12K active platinum collectors who have the interest and funds to invest in 1 ounce platinum collectable coins on a recurring yearly basis.
The number of collectors with interest and funds to collect multiple years and in particular collect and hold more numerous prior years AND various denominations is almost certainly less than 10K.
This explains why there has not been more of an explosive rise in price for the rarest of platinum issues with mintages below 3,000.
Even for these coins the mis-match between total active APE collectors and coins available is only 3x-4x at most.
This relatively low mis-match ratio explains why for even the rarest APEs the price is at most little more than 3-4X the base price of the coin
NOW CONSIDER SILVER EAGLES...................
Not even considering the bullion silver eagles lets just look at the annual proof eagle production numbers as a rough measure of interest.
Very little reason to hoard proof silver eagles............numbers sold likely is as good a measure of depth of ASE collecting market as is the annual Platinum proof sales ian indication of the platinum collector market.
So....what do the proof silver eagle annual sales show??
800,000 potential silver eagle collectors based on 800,000+ annual silver eagle proof sales.
Now consider 800,000 collectors vs the 30,000 1995-W coins.
That 25 to 1 mismatch helps explain why the 1995-W proof sells for $3,000...........50X the base price of a proof ASE.
For the 2011 Reverse Proof it is a 8 to 1 mismatch between available coins and collector base.
This bodes well for the 2011 reverse proof but it also explains why long term it will likely struggle beyond $1000-$1,500 per raw example.
Conclusion.........When considering entry cost, annual cost to continue a series, cost to try to complete a series and the size of collector base to various mintages, the ASE collector market has far better fundamentals than the APE collector market.
This same exercise can be applied to the First Spouse collector market where based on annual sales the true collector base (Those willing to buy every new offering) is almost certainly below 4,000-3,500.
Here the mis-match between collector base and lowest mintage is likely no more than 2 to 1.
Unless there is a very rare FS in the future or a significant expansion in FS collector base than the relative price performance of current rarer examples vs. base coins may be rather muted.
Always remember Price is not a product of mintage alone.
***********************
Relative rarity in set is one mighty important consideration and it shows up in the models.
Rather price is a product of mintage AND demand. >>
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Good analysis, 2many. >>
Yes, it is. I would have to say you'd have to break down the APE base further into denomination/size, however, to really get a read on what's going on.
The one-ounce coins have a different dynamic than others, people buy them just to have some bullion sittin' around. If you go to my favorite denomination, the half-ounce, it's more of a collector dynamic. And for these 1/2-ounce coins, I'd say the collector base can't be more than two or three thousand. The price of the '04 proof doesn't suggest there are more than 5,000 collectors. Instead, it probably indicates that the 5,000 coins minted are owned by 5,000 different people, many of whom just have them sittin' around, but also don't have any compelling interest in the series. Therefore, the supply is very low, and those 2-3,000 real collectors I mentioned don't all have one yet. To get one, the collectors just have to wait until a) they can afford it and b) some old codger cleans out his closet and decides to get rid of one of these things he picked up years ago at bargain basement prices from the Mint. Therefore demand is still greater than supply.
This also explains why the 2008 1/2-ounce proof price is so soft. By the time it was released, all current collectors were up and running. They grabbed coins directly from the Mint and they even bought extra for speculation. In other words, everyone who needs one has it already and there's no one to gobble up the extra supply.
Similar analysis should indicate how many collectors there are for the 1/10 and 1/4 ounce APEs, too.
Fire away!
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I absolutely do not believe there are 800,000 collectors and doubt there are 100k. That part of the analysis just does not hold IMO. How many? Maybe 50,000....I do think that people hoard but at 100k may be hard to hold these at the prices quoted and I certainly do not see a long term value of 1500 for the RP. >>
A lot depends on how "collectors" is defined. The term can include everyone from the Registry Set completist to the accumulator with a few different dates and vague plans to complete the set someday.
If there were fewer than 100K Silver Eagle collectors, I doubt that the 2006 20th Anniversary Sets (mintage 250K) would be pushing $400.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
It was wordy enough.
Yes there are less than 800,000 true proof ASE collectors but there are similarly less than 12,000 true collectors of one ounce proof platinum coins, and likely less than 4,000-5,000 true FS collectors.
Many of us on this thread hold multiple examples of all of these series but the general point remains vald.
It is the ratio of numbers of collectors(demand) to available examples(mintage) that largely determines price.
At this time the ASE collector base is far, far larger than base for APEs and FS coins.
The mis-match or ratio between the size of a series collector base and the mintage or availabilty of examples of the rarer coins in those respective series........ASE-APE-FS....... explains why 1995-w ASE proof, 2006 and 2011 ASE reverse proof, and even 07/08 error ASE have shown on a relative basis better performance than similar examples of the rarer coins in APE and FS series.
As one who holds a very significant number of APEs I hope dynamics will change in future by having collector base for APEs expand but sadly the move to produce only 1 ounce coins at $2000 per was a move in wrong direction.
This high cost of entry for new collectors will limit future growth of APE collector base.
I would have prefered they drop the 1 ounce platinum slugs and continued the more popular fractional coins expanding the APE collector base with more affordable annual offerings.
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
With that poor scan, I have my doubts that he's going to "brake even."
<< <i>
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
With that poor scan, I have my doubts that he's going to "brake even." >>
Looks like he has a ways to go yet.....
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>This high cost of entry for new collectors will limit future growth of APE collector base. >>
At the same time though the fact the mint discontinued the fractional eagles means the sets have clear starting and ending points. That bodes well for new collectors in the future as the cost of completion has been established.
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
Registry madness! Am I the only one who thinks some of these buyers need to have their head examined? I mean, is a coin really worth $1000+ more because someone paid extra for the 'First Strike' designation? You can buy it for under $1000 as just a plain old 70 w/o the FS label, andhere's a 69 that sold for $308. The FS Louisa Adams in FS 70 is also going nutz these days.
No, you're not the only one who thinks First Strike madness is nuts. I would guess most people agree. HOWEVER, there do seem to be enough label collectors to keep them prices high! I've expected the whole thing to crash any day, but it doesn't seem to be.
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>No, you're not the only one who thinks First Strike madness is nuts. I would guess most people agree. HOWEVER, there do seem to be enough label collectors to keep them prices high! I've expected the whole thing to crash any day, but it doesn't seem to be. >>
GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
Solo, I like the fact that the sets are more or less finished (we never really know for sure). Not only that, but at some point in the future (hard to know when) the Plats will appear on the radar of collectors. When that does happen, enough dispersion and melting will have taken place that it won't be that easy to assemble a set. The price will be secondary at that point.
In my estimation except for the 1 oz. coins, it does look like the abundance of extra Plats on the market has been thinning out for a few years already. I'm just sayin'. If the spot price for gold stays above the spot price for platinum for any amount of time, that would be even more bullish for the Platinum Eagles, in terms of numismatic premium. Again, my opinion.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>About a month ago, I decided to test the water by selling one of my $10 1st Strike APEs from 2008. I listed it on eBay at a $1,995 BIN. It sold in a couple of minutes...SALE My buyer has decided to sell and it seems the $1,995 wasn't a fluke!RESALE >>
Looks like he "took a bath" in the tune of $300 - $400 ( depending what type of eBay account he has)
You were fortunate to get your price.
EDITED: There's a lot of competition for people's dollars this time of year and the economy is still bad for a lot of folks...not to mention the little 25th ASE frenzy going on.
If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling.
<< <i>Speaking of the 25A, is there anyone who believes they aren't near the bottom in terms of price? Do you know the 20A ASE Proof, set mintage of 248K and total sales of 1,092,477, sells for $300-400 in 70? That just amazes me! >>
I think prices will continue to decline as more people receive their sets from NGC and list on eBay. I'l be honest and admit that I hope they decline another 20% or more from here so that way I can justify buying even more
<< <i>he 25A set should be at least $5000 in five years...and that's if the bullion coin doesn't end up being a 100K coin and no other varieties or errors are found. >>
That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened.
<< <i>
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
Sorry, I was referring to PCGS 70 sets.
<< <i>If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
Neocoin --Sorry, didn't mean to offend. It was just my poor attempt at sarcasm.
Can't wait to start reading it.
<< <i>Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
The sky high price I quoted was for 70 sets and it is just my opinion. We'll know in a few years whether I was right or wrong
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>That's the most optimistic forecast I've read yet. Needless to say I think you're too bullish, however there's definitely a case to be made for the sets reaching $2000 to $2500. That's what I see as the best case scenario in the next few years. If prices get that high I would sell every remaining set (as I plan to take a bit off the table at $1500/set) and turn the money into other modern mint items priced near spot.
Are you talking about raw sets hitting $2000 to $2500? Even at $1500 per raw set, I believe you are dreaming but stranger things have happened. >>
Sorry, I was referring to PCGS 70 sets. >>
The PCGS 70 sets are currently in the $2000+ range. However, I looked at eBay about 1/2 hour ago and it seems the black stripe and signature label 70 sets are being dumped on the market right now. I believe dealers are clearing their stock because of the up and coming dump of the Flag labels.
It will be interesting to see what this does to the price levels.
Black FS 25th Anniversary label or the classic FS Flag 25th anniversary label??
Which brings better money??
Does the FS label on the 70s add enough to price to offset neglible additional value on the 69s??
<< <i>GritsMan--I agree. All these morons who buy (or "invest" HA HA) in these labels are just plain idiots. These snake oil peddlers take a perfectly good $50 product, stick a fancy label on it, they preach about how special it is with its new label and how anybody who's anybody owns one, and then sell it for $100!!! Just ridiculous I tell you!!! It can't be sustainable and will all come crashing down on their heads like a house of cards. Gimmicks like that NEVER last. FOOLS
If you ask me, all collecting is a game of fools but some do well with it anyway. And on top of it, it can be fun. I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
in your first paragraph you call people morons and FOOLS.
next sentence: "I don't see the need for derogatory name calling. >>
"
whats up with that?
edit: my apologies Neocoin... i did not realize you were quoting someone else` text. when i read your last post i didn`t realize it was "copy and paste".
the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping.
at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best.
<< <i>my opinion is the PCGS 70 FS sets under $2G are becoming a bargain. You have to ask yourself if you see those 70 sets at $1500 or less in the next year......I dont.
the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping.
at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best. >>
That's what I plan on doing. Given the fact that 2 out of the last 15 people that I've seen post their PCGS grading reports actually cleared 40% 70's, I plan on sending some of my cache to NGC. The pcgs pops may indicate one thing, but countless posters across multiple forums that I frequent have made it clear that PCGS is very stingy with 70's (as they should be IMO). Therefore I'm going to buy a couple Mercanti sets and regular FS flag sets sometime this month or the next (when it's clear prices are done dropping for the moment) and flip NGC sets to cover the difference. Just to be clear here I'm not saying anything negative about our awesome host as I find it refreshing that they can be counted on to grade stricter than most
<< <i>
<< <i>my opinion is the PCGS 70 FS sets under $2G are becoming a bargain. You have to ask yourself if you see those 70 sets at $1500 or less in the next year......I dont.
the pass through rate of 70's seems to be dropping.
at about $1000 over the cost of a raw set plus grading fees you can have the best. >>
That's what I plan on doing. Given the fact that 2 out of the last 15 people that I've seen post their PCGS grading reports actually cleared 40% 70's, I plan on sending some of my cache to NGC. The pcgs pops may indicate one thing, but countless posters across multiple forums that I frequent have made it clear that PCGS is very stingy with 70's (as they should be IMO). Therefore I'm going to buy a couple Mercanti sets and regular FS flag sets sometime this month or the next (when it's clear prices are done dropping for the moment) and flip NGC sets to cover the difference. Just to be clear here I'm not saying anything negative about our awesome host as I find it refreshing that they can be counted on to grade stricter than most
I think the spread will grow on this issue down the road between PCGS and ATS. It will be fun to watch it play out
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>So what is the decision....which label is more desireable??
Black FS 25th Anniversary label or the classic FS Flag 25th anniversary label??
Which brings better money??
Does the FS label on the 70s add enough to price to offset neglible additional value on the 69s?? >>
.........................................................................................
Any thoughts??
<< <i>
<< <i>So what is the decision....which label is more desireable??
Black FS 25th Anniversary label or the classic FS Flag 25th anniversary label??
Which brings better money??
Does the FS label on the 70s add enough to price to offset neglible additional value on the 69s?? >>
.........................................................................................
Any thoughts?? >>
I believe for the actual collector of the ASEs, the flag label is more desirable as that will match what they have. IMOP, the black label/signature labels are a ship passing in the night. With all the black/signature sets on eBay right now, it will be interesting to see what this will do to the price. Some are being sold by forum dealers and it tells me they are taking the profit now rather than rolling the dice and see if they will become $5,000 sets. On the other hand, they may need to pay the bills and are selling enough to have inventory at little or no cost.
You have to remember, there are basically two types of "collectors" out there:
The raw collector who could care less about plastic (which I believe are the majority).
The graded collector. Within this group is the First Strike Flag collector. Now, will any of these collectors be interested in a black/signature FS label, maybe some. But I feel the majority will want the flag label to match the rest of their collection.
Of course, I am not talking about the "investor" who is only buying with the hopes of selling in the future for a profit. However, the investor needs to guess what the collector will want in the future. I guess the one thing that concerns me is if there are enough collectors to buy all the sets being listing on eBay and on dealer websites. And, if they are buying now, will the demand be there in the future to make these $5,000 sets?
I am still sitting on the fence about snatching up some 70 sets after selling all of my Mint sealed boxes (decided not to do the grading gamble this time). If they drop enough, I may buy a few sets. Time will only tell.
FS Black label
FS Black label with signature
FS Classic with flag
Non FS traditional 25th Anniversary
Correct??.............Best choice for the $$??
<< <i>So I guess you can get on bulk submission 25th sets with..........
FS Black label
FS Black label with signature
FS Classic with flag
Non FS traditional 25th Anniversary
Correct??.............Best choice for the $$?? >>
That is correct. I wonder if you can get a FS Black Label re-slabbed to a FS Flag label? Anyone know? Maybe Don can chime in on this and give us direction.
As for the best choice, are you a "collector" or an "Investor?"
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
That is a good question. Same question could be asked on the signature labels. Both are only obtainable through a bulk submission.
I wonder if anyone just went for the plain jane white label? They may be the rarest of them all, label wise.
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>So what is the decision....which label is more desireable??
Black FS 25th Anniversary label or the classic FS Flag 25th anniversary label??
Which brings better money??
Does the FS label on the 70s add enough to price to offset neglible additional value on the 69s?? >>
.........................................................................................
Any thoughts?? >>
I believe for the actual collector of the ASEs, the flag label is more desirable as that will match what they have. IMOP, the black label/signature labels are a ship passing in the night. With all the black/signature sets on eBay right now, it will be interesting to see what this will do to the price. Some are being sold by forum dealers and it tells me they are taking the profit now rather than rolling the dice and see if they will become $5,000 sets. On the other hand, they may need to pay the bills and are selling enough to have inventory at little or no cost.
You have to remember, there are basically two types of "collectors" out there:
The raw collector who could care less about plastic (which I believe are the majority).
The graded collector. Within this group is the First Strike Flag collector. Now, will any of these collectors be interested in a black/signature FS label, maybe some. But I feel the majority will want the flag label to match the rest of their collection.
Of course, I am not talking about the "investor" who is only buying with the hopes of selling in the future for a profit. However, the investor needs to guess what the collector will want in the future. I guess the one thing that concerns me is if there are enough collectors to buy all the sets being listing on eBay and on dealer websites. And, if they are buying now, will the demand be there in the future to make these $5,000 sets?
I am still sitting on the fence about snatching up some 70 sets after selling all of my Mint sealed boxes (decided not to do the grading gamble this time). If they drop enough, I may buy a few sets. Time will only tell. >>
Normally I would think that a First Strike Flag collector would want the First Strike Flag IF these were individual coins, but they are a set, so I think there is a desire to distinguish them as such. I don't think having the word "set" appended to the text in the First Strike Flag label distinguishes it enough, so I think collectors may prefer the black stripe labels.
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady. >>
You are correct about the fee for the black labels being more than for the FS flag label. That fee includes First Strike, which is why it's that expensive. FS Flag is $32/coin. Black stripe w/o signature is $40/coin. Mercanti signature is $50/coin.
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>Do you have to have FS to get black label?? >>
The black stripe labels (both with signature and without) get the First Strike designation for no additional fee. I don't know if you can get them without First Strike. >>
You mean other than the fee for the Black Labels. If I remember right (which may not be the case), the Black Labels were more than the regular FS Flag Label and the Signature Label was even more.
We are entering the zone where the FS Flag labels will be hitting eBay and with the bunch of Black/Signature labels on there now, it will be interesting to see where the prices end up. Hopefully, there will be enough crossover to see if the Flags make the Black/Signature labels drop in price or hold steady. >>
You are correct about the fee for the black labels being more than for the FS flag label. That fee includes First Strike, which is why it's that expensive. FS Flag is $32/coin. Black stripe w/o signature is $40/coin. Mercanti signature is $50/coin. >>
Those prices are disgusting, it almost makes me want to quit collecting. I would rather pay more to have my coins graded if we could just get rid of all the first strike/early release stuff. The whole thing should be exposed on 60 minutes or dateline, etc.. I mean look at the 2010 ATB bullion all qualifying, IMHO none should have qualified.
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