Thats why I tell people that will listen to be careful of the label game. "Buy the coin not the holder" is the mantra that will keep you out of trouble longer term. Lots of people make good money playing the label game including the grading companies. Thats why they do it but I would suggest that when you go to buy in the aftermarket be careful about paying stupid money for a FS or any other label because the appeal fades. Look at the values that PCGS 70s brought 10 years ago. Those people that payed the five times base price they were bringing at that time have been killed by and large.
<< <i>Thats why I tell people that will listen to be careful of the label game. "Buy the coin not the holder" is the mantra that will keep you out of trouble longer term. Lots of people make good money playing the label game including the grading companies. Thats why they do it but I would suggest that when you go to buy in the aftermarket be careful about paying stupid money for a FS or any other label because the appeal fades. Look at the values that PCGS 70s brought 10 years ago. Those people that payed the five times base price they were bringing at that time have been killed by and large. >>
Well said! I had some 25th anniversary eagles that I was going to send to PCGS for grading, the extra five dollar fee talked me out of it. I will keep them raw sealed in a box for now, and when the time comes I will sell them sealed. Not worth playing the label game.
<< <i>Picked up a Buchanan PR 70 tonight off the bay. $1170 is a good buy on this in my book. >>
LOL I guess I'm going to start running into other spouse-a-holics now that I've joined this forum. I'm going to pack your coin in a few minutes and hope to mail it tomorrow if I actually have time to sneak away for lunch . I hate the fact that I had to sell one, but loading up on the 25th ase sets really put me in a hole so I had to list a couple spouses...
@Eric -- Do you have any insight or information to share regarding the final numbers on the PR Buchanan? I read on another forum that you expected the numbers to be adjusted downward, but I'm curious to know if your source(es) have divulged anything recently that you can share.
<< <i>Picked up a Buchanan PR 70 tonight off the bay. $1170 is a good buy on this in my book. >>
LOL I guess I'm going to start running into other spouse-a-holics now that I've joined this forum. I'm going to pack your coin in a few minutes and hope to mail it tomorrow if I actually have time to sneak away for lunch . I hate the fact that I had to sell one, but loading up on the 25th ase sets really put me in a hole so I had to list a couple spouses...
<< <i>
Well cool to know where its coming from. Thought about asking if you were on this forum. Oh well.
Currently working with nurmaler. Older transactions....circa 2011 BST transactions Gecko109, Segoja, lpinion, Agblox, oldgumballmachineswanted,pragmaticgoat, CharlieC, onlyroosies, timrutnat, ShinyThingsInPM under login lightcycler
<< <i>Anyone have a feel for long term potential of the Army and Medal of Honor $5 gold commemoratives??
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000. >>
My guess is this will do modestly well. It's a great looking coin (unlike the Army) and has meaning for a lot of Americans. I think the only reason it's so low is people are broke, and we've lost quite a bit of collector base over the last couple of years.
<< <i>Anyone have a feel for long term potential of the Army and Medal of Honor $5 gold commemoratives??
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000. >>
My guess is this will do modestly well. It's a great looking coin (unlike the Army) and has meaning for a lot of Americans. I think the only reason it's so low is people are broke, and we've lost quite a bit of collector base over the last couple of years. >>
These may be sleeper. Hopefully, they will awaken before I die!
<< <i>Good chance one of the 2011 issues will take Julia Out. >>
Why? >>
1) The 2011 spouses are arguably the ugliest yet. 2) Collector's only have so much money and having two different $5 gold commen's available plus all the other coins this year mean means the wallet of many is too diluted to absorb all the spouses this year too. I'm passing on the Garfield right now because I spent so much on those 25th ase sets and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Admittedly I'll probably buy Garfield at some point early next year. 3) The economy is arguably worse now than it was a couple years ago or at the very least it's clear collectors are more conservative with their purchases. 4) The mint has started striking FS coins to anticipated demand, so if a coin like the MS EJhonson were to go on backorder this late in the year I doubt they would start striking more of them at this point. They still had a number of months to continue selling MS Lincolns, but when they went to back-order they simply just sold out.
Those are my opinions as to why 2011 will give us the new key. A related question is will anyone care? I could easily see the Johnson, Hayes, and Garfield coins coming in at just under 3K. Would collectors really pay a significant premium for all three of those uglies? I don't think so, but I could certainly be wrong. Clearly whoever has the lowest mintage on record is going to be a winner simply because it will be considered a key, but if the second and third rarest coins are nearly the exact same mintage I wonder just how much more will the key be worth?
Does anyone know of a classic series where the key, and two closest semi-keys seems to exist in similar numbers?
What worries me is having 10 first spouse uglies with mintages between 2600 and 3400. Talk about key date effect dillution. If the price of gold had backed down leaving a good looking julia as key the key would have good fundamentals. Problem is we are stuck in a range that looks endless at this point. Maybe circumstances will change but I dont see it coming.
it seems to me that the key words here are "ugly, unwanted, hags"....it has 5-10yr "potential" written all over it....
as opposed to looking at the pieces/parts....you have to have the "sum of the whole collection" mentality with the spouses....you will hit the key eventually so why worry which one is the "ugliest or most un-wanted".....
<< <i>it seems to me that the key words here are "ugly, unwanted, hags"....it has 5-10yr "potential" written all over it....
as opposed to looking at the pieces/parts....you have to have the "sum of the whole collection" mentality with the spouses....you will hit the key eventually so why worry which one is the "ugliest or most un-wanted".....
jmho >>
So far, I think the ugliest of them all have the highest mintages. Go figure. But then ugly is in the eye of the beholder.
Eric's comments echo back to earlier discussion of the importance of size of collector base in relation to availability of coins or mintage in a series.
Sadly at this point in time the true collector base for FS coins is likely no more than 2,500-4,000. (Higher for Liberty subset)
If you remove flippers hoping to catch the bottom it may be even lower than figures alone would indicate.
Even for the lowest mintage issues there seem to be sufficent coins to meet demand. (Excluding things such as 69 vs. 70 and First Strike).
Best hope for FS collectors is for there to be a dramatic increase in size of collector base in future.
All of these things can also be said for APEs and AGEs especially the burnished uncirculated issues.
I have posted the final final numbers for the 2010 first spouse gold on the NGC forum under the thread titled "Silver Gold and Platinum Eagles, Buffalo Issues, and Sales Data For All Moderns" I intend to post all the 2010 dated mintages there as they come in an any other info that comes across my desk as I continue to work on the new project with John.
Are these the correct final First Spouse "Liberty" mintages? (Jeffersons are 20K each and are basically at melt. In fact, many have probably already been melted.)
Unc. 4609, Proof 7684 - Jackson Unc. 3826, Proof 6807 - Van Buren Unc. 5162, Proof 7110 - Buchanan
If these numbers are accurate, the Van Buren is the mintage key in both uncirculated and proof, and defines the number of complete sets that can be assembled.
Jackson, however, is more well known and popular, so this will increase demand for his coin and support its price.
Buchanan is one of the least known presidents, so his coin will probably lag the Jackson in price despite its lower proof mintage.
Jefferson is immensely popular, but due to the high mintage his coin will probably track the price of gold for the foreseeable future. It might still outperform the others if a rising gold price reduces the premium on the lower mintage coins in the set.
IMO, owing a complete "Liberty" subset in unc. or proof (or both) can be numismatically rewarding and is a relatively low-risk venture financially at today's prices, regardless of how gold performs over the next several years.
<< <i>Would collectors really pay a significant premium for all three of those uglies? >>
Hopefully not. And there's no reason to overpay for the FS coins, especially the ugly ones. I do like that aspect of it. For example a few weeks ago I noticed some folks paying $200/oz for the ASE 25th anniv sets. Sure that's demand related, no doubt, but it's still overpaying way past melt values. I never worry about that when purchasing my next FS. --aap
<< <i>Sadly at this point in time the true collector base for FS coins is likely no more than 2,500-4,000. >>
Well, it's sad for the flippers I guess. Even if the collector base was 17 of us (it could go there soon!), I'd likely still keep buying for my collection. Mileage may vary --aap
I have been watching the post on all the various boards and one of the favorite topics of discussion is the falling prices of the 25th anniversary set. Flippers are concerned because their short term margins are falling and being that I am concerned about non collectors making a killing (NOT) I started looking through the data for real guidance. One of the things I do to get a better picture of what is going on is to take past behavior and tend it out a couple years or so to give me insight into what the collector looking through the US Coin Digest or Red book will see in time. Below is a non final final listing of the mint state silver eagle series with the current sales trends tacked on out to the end of 2014.
What do you see? I see a MASSIVE population of modern silver dollars about to blow past the Morgans surviving total population. I see multimillion mintage common dates right next to coins whose mintages look like rounding errors on the common dates. I see two coins that are holes in the chart. Thats the 2008W with the 07 reverse and and the 2011S. The 2008W is a serious coin buts its easy to say I dont collect die varieties and pass over it in the minds of some collectors but its tough to pass by the 2011s with such logic. Mint marks have a long history of being drastically stronger form of product differentiation than die varies are. There is a very rough formula for pricing a strong series king as long as you don,t have too many so called key dates with similar mintages.
Its PK=Ps(k)(ms/mk)^(a little less than 2) Pk= price of key Ps= price of second key in this case the 2006 w at $65 Ms= mintage of second key in this case 466,000 Mk= mintage of key in this case about 100,000 K= a constant that moves around in this case say about .8 the power term is 1.5 to 2 in this case say 1.8
SO PK= 65x.8x(466000/100000)^1.8= about a grand. Now don't put too much faith in this number because it very rough. This year the new second place coin could be the 2011w with a 300,000 mintage and the formula will then give you a mature key price closer to $750 for a run of the mill MS69. But the point is this this coin is incredibly strong in a series whose population looks like it has no end. Obviously this is just one coin in the 25th anniversary set but I think the 2011s will bring more than the raw 5 coin sets are now all by itself over time. And not too much time at that.
If you were not able to order one of the 25th silver sets at $299 from the Mint and you would like one then dont get real worried about spending say $600-$800 on one. Just shop around and find one that looks good. Try to see it in person if you can. Be a little quality conscious. Be patient and dont let this "falling knife" mentality effect you. The knife is already bouncing on the floor.
So if the proof buch came in at 7110 that is a far cry from the possible 5600 someone was predicting. I know all of us make predictions here and we are never 100% right, but the idea was floated that the proof buchs were short struck.
Somewhere the mint gave out bad numbers, either planchets struck or the final final numbers. I am guessing it was the planchets struck that waere the bad ones. Didn't they claim only 7000 were struck or was it more? I remember going over this with 7/8 and he didn't believe me that the numbers could be this close to the final sales figures. All of them came within a couple hundred, so the sales numbers for 2010 were very accurate after all on a percentage basis.
Mitch, Clearly the 2011 reverse proof is excellent too but its late and I did not want to ramble on any more.
And you are correct Half there was some bad data. Now just for context the guy that put the 6800 number out to 7/8 was that same guy that told us that the 2008W $50 plat was a 2200 mintage coin when the sales report read way over 3,000 he has a history of being dead on.
<< <i>So if the proof buch came in at 7110 that is a far cry from the possible 5600 someone was predicting. I know all of us make predictions here and we are never 100% right, but the idea was floated that the proof buchs were short struck. >>
Look back at the posts. The number expected was short of 6800, possibility of 6300-6500, the far reach being short of 6000. I dont know where you get your definition of short struck, but, they are definitely in aggregate under the 15,000 ceiling, and as I recall the "sold out sign" caught many of us by surprise, before the "so-called" ordering period expired. So, unless someone who remains nameless has a better explanation, that is it.
7110 is not a bad coin, just not king of the proof Liberty subset. Clearly the Gold Haag's are dying slow an painful death, and except for the Liberty subset, I wouldnt care to have a position in any of them regardless of mintage.
Missing 3 coins in the Liberty Subset. I collect the MS/PF 70 PCGS First Strike. These three coins are out of my price range and I most likely will not complete the subset now. I can be patient and hope the market falls on these, but I doubt it.
I have this collection scattered in PCGS, NGC, and OGP with more PCGS than the rest. As the goal is to complete the set for my grandson I am wondering if perhaps I need to shift focus to another series. I am shy both Julias and a Sarah Polk unc of having a complete set. I am guaranteed to have the lowest mintage coins but am concerned that the market down the road will be weak or even nonexistent ( think commemoratives here) Will the collection/series have more value in a uniform TPG slab or will the expense to switch overwhelm any gain that might occur. I am also considering keeping either just the proofs or the uncs as a way to diversify and plow the money realized into platinum. I have started on the burnished and need only two for completion of that set. Again a mixture of raw and TPG slabs. Decisions decisions decisions. Anyone care to share their thoughts on my dilemma? Thanks for any input, insight, or speculation you might contribute.
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i> Look back at the posts. The number expected was short of 6800, possibility of 6300-6500, the far reach being short of 6000. I dont know where you get your definition of short struck, but, they are definitely in aggregate under the 15,000 ceiling, and as I recall the "sold out sign" caught many of us by surprise, before the "so-called" ordering period expired. So, unless someone who remains nameless has a better explanation, that is it.
7110 is not a bad coin, just not king of the proof Liberty subset. Clearly the Gold Haag's are dying slow an painful death, and except for the Liberty subset, I wouldnt care to have a position in any of them regardless of mintage. >>
BTW 7110 is so-so when compared to the rest of the spouse coin lowest proofs. I think over the very long-term nobody is going to melt any of the liberties except for possibly the first Jefferson. That leaves all the remaining coins to be traded.
The spouses I could see being melted down to coins with lower mintages than the Liberties, eventually prices will have to rebound and make those the deep keys. There is also the factor of the uglies having a dampening effect on the Liberties, who would pay three times for a Liberty when you can have three uglies with lower mintages for the same price and three times the gold?
Ina long time, possibly 50 years, the spouse coins will be the major series to own for modern gold. The future generation, today's babies, will not have the same values we have. You can see that in the Occupy protests, etc. I could see them flipping around the spouses to be the saviors of this country over the greedy Presidents. The numbers are just too low to be forgotten.
As I said before there are other series that show a long number of low mintages can have very high valuations. Anyway I wish the buch proof came in as low as was hoped, but the mint gave out bad numbers somewhere.
I respect Eric's acumen, but I think demand may be a lot more elastic in the long run and that this type of calculation would be based on "right now" figures, and also that the 06W bottom end price is buoyed up by the cost of new satin finish (2011W) coins at 50 along with the bugaboo of bullion price not being far behind.
These lend a bit of inelasticity to the 06W price that are not affecting the 100,000 mintage 11RP and 11S coins. If you were to somehow negate these so that the 06W could find its "true value" in terms of calculating price for the two 11 coins it would help possibly.
Seat of the pants or IMO, either of the two 2011 coins in 69 are more like 400-500 and I think that may be generous. Lazy me, what do ebay sales show so far?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
The price the formula develops are for price at time of series maturity. That would not be in the next couple years. This year $400 for a raw or 69 11s or RP may be realistic.
<< <i>I have this collection scattered in PCGS, NGC, and OGP with more PCGS than the rest. As the goal is to complete the set for my grandson I am wondering if perhaps I need to shift focus to another series. I am shy both Julias and a Sarah Polk unc of having a complete set. I am guaranteed to have the lowest mintage coins but am concerned that the market down the road will be weak or even nonexistent ( think commemoratives here) Will the collection/series have more value in a uniform TPG slab or will the expense to switch overwhelm any gain that might occur. I am also considering keeping either just the proofs or the uncs as a way to diversify and plow the money realized into platinum. I have started on the burnished and need only two for completion of that set. Again a mixture of raw and TPG slabs. Decisions decisions decisions. Anyone care to share their thoughts on my dilemma? Thanks for any input, insight, or speculation you might contribute. >>
My sentiments are:
Keep the coins in the variety of holders, rather than trying to make a "uniform" set with matched holders. As long as the set of coins is complete, I think diversity of holders makes the set more interesting.
Ditch the uncirculated First Spouses and keep the proofs. Your proof series is up-to-date while your unc. series is lacking three coins, so by keeping the proofs you will avoid the expense of purchasing these three coins in the aftermarket. The proofs have the same designs but look much nicer in hand. Long term, I think the proofs will be more in demand and thus will turn out to be better values than the uncs.
Completing your burnished plat set is a good idea. Scarcity offers downside protection, while metal value creates upside potential.
<< <i>Ditch the uncirculated First Spouses and keep the proofs. Your proof series is up-to-date while your unc. series is lacking three coins, so by keeping the proofs you will avoid the expense of purchasing these three coins in the aftermarket. The proofs have the same designs but look much nicer in hand. Long term, I think the proofs will be more in demand and thus will turn out to be better values than the uncs.
Completing your burnished plat set is a good idea. Scarcity offers downside protection, while metal value creates upside potential. >>
Interesting and contradicting. The Unc spouse coins have lower mintages than the proofs just like the plats. Yet, you see the demand for the proof spouse coins better than the Unc but just the opposite for the plats.
<< <i>Interesting and contradicting. The Unc spouse coins have lower mintages than the proofs just like the plats. Yet, you see the demand for the proof spouse coins better than the Unc but just the opposite for the plats. >>
There are some differences between the gold Spouses and the Platinum Eagles that make the burnished plats a better buy, in my opinion.
The 2006-2008-W burnished plats are a closed 3-year "short set," consisting of only 3 designs in 4 sizes for a total of 12 coins. Thus they are much more affordable as a complete set than the 1997-2011-W proofs, which total 51 coins so far with more to come.
The 2006-2008-W proof plats have the same designs as the burnished plats, but the similarities to the gold Spouses end there. While 10 of the 12 burnished plats have mintages below 3800, the 2006-W and 2007-W proof plats were minted in sufficient quantities that they are now available at a small premium over spot, and are likely to remain that way for some time to come. So I think the low-mintage burnished coins of these years have greater appreciation potential.
The 2008-W proof plats all have low mintages, but they are still 1.5 to 1.8 times as plentiful as the 2008-W burnished coins. This is comparable to the mintage ratios of many recent First Spouse coins. However, while most First Spouse coins fetch similar prices in uncirculated and proof finishes, the 2008-W proof plats bring considerably higher prices than their burnished counterparts. Because of this disparity, I think the 2008-W burnished plats have some catching up to do, and are the better buy at this time.
Comments
<< <i>Thats why I tell people that will listen to be careful of the label game. "Buy the coin not the holder" is the mantra that will keep you out of trouble longer term. Lots of people make good money playing the label game including the grading companies. Thats why they do it but I would suggest that when you go to buy in the aftermarket be careful about paying stupid money for a FS or any other label because the appeal fades. Look at the values that PCGS 70s brought 10 years ago. Those people that payed the five times base price they were bringing at that time have been killed by and large. >>
Well said! I had some 25th anniversary eagles that I was going to send to PCGS for grading, the extra five dollar fee talked me out of it. I will keep them raw sealed in a box for now, and when the time comes I will sell them sealed. Not worth playing the label game.
<< <i>Picked up a Buchanan PR 70 tonight off the bay. $1170 is a good buy on this in my book. >>
LOL I guess I'm going to start running into other spouse-a-holics now that I've joined this forum. I'm going to pack your coin in a few minutes and hope to mail it tomorrow if I actually have time to sneak away for lunch
@Eric -- Do you have any insight or information to share regarding the final numbers on the PR Buchanan? I read on another forum that you expected the numbers to be adjusted downward, but I'm curious to know if your source(es) have divulged anything recently that you can share.
I have been working on the mintage question and do not have any data yet. I think the proof gold bucks will be just fine long term.
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000.
<< <i>
<< <i>Picked up a Buchanan PR 70 tonight off the bay. $1170 is a good buy on this in my book. >>
LOL I guess I'm going to start running into other spouse-a-holics now that I've joined this forum. I'm going to pack your coin in a few minutes and hope to mail it tomorrow if I actually have time to sneak away for lunch
<< <i>
Well cool to know where its coming from. Thought about asking if you were on this forum. Oh well.
<< <i>Anyone have a feel for long term potential of the Army and Medal of Honor $5 gold commemoratives??
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000. >>
I ordered two of each yesterday. Not sure I'll get the MOH's but the army slightly lower mintage at least for the moment.
We need numbers on the 2010 Spouses........prod those sources!!!!
<< <i>Good chance one of the 2011 issues will take Julia Out. >>
Why?
<< <i>Anyone have a feel for long term potential of the Army and Medal of Honor $5 gold commemoratives??
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000. >>
My guess is this will do modestly well. It's a great looking coin (unlike the Army) and has meaning for a lot of Americans. I think the only reason it's so low is people are broke, and we've lost quite a bit of collector base over the last couple of years.
<< <i>
<< <i>Anyone have a feel for long term potential of the Army and Medal of Honor $5 gold commemoratives??
The MOH unc just went backorder with what looks like a final mintage that will be in range of 8,000. >>
My guess is this will do modestly well. It's a great looking coin (unlike the Army) and has meaning for a lot of Americans. I think the only reason it's so low is people are broke, and we've lost quite a bit of collector base over the last couple of years. >>
These may be sleeper. Hopefully, they will awaken before I die!
<< <i>
<< <i>Good chance one of the 2011 issues will take Julia Out. >>
Why? >>
1) The 2011 spouses are arguably the ugliest yet.
2) Collector's only have so much money and having two different $5 gold commen's available plus all the other coins this year mean means the wallet of many is too diluted to absorb all the spouses this year too. I'm passing on the Garfield right now because I spent so much on those 25th ase sets and I'm sure I'm not the only one. Admittedly I'll probably buy Garfield at some point early next year.
3) The economy is arguably worse now than it was a couple years ago or at the very least it's clear collectors are more conservative with their purchases.
4) The mint has started striking FS coins to anticipated demand, so if a coin like the MS EJhonson were to go on backorder this late in the year I doubt they would start striking more of them at this point. They still had a number of months to continue selling MS Lincolns, but when they went to back-order they simply just sold out.
Those are my opinions as to why 2011 will give us the new key. A related question is will anyone care? I could easily see the Johnson, Hayes, and Garfield coins coming in at just under 3K. Would collectors really pay a significant premium for all three of those uglies? I don't think so, but I could certainly be wrong. Clearly whoever has the lowest mintage on record is going to be a winner simply because it will be considered a key, but if the second and third rarest coins are nearly the exact same mintage I wonder just how much more will the key be worth?
Does anyone know of a classic series where the key, and two closest semi-keys seems to exist in similar numbers?
Eric
as opposed to looking at the pieces/parts....you have to have the "sum of the whole collection" mentality with the spouses....you will hit the key eventually so why worry which one is the "ugliest or most un-wanted".....
jmho
<< <i>
<< <i>Good chance one of the 2011 issues will take Julia Out. >>
Why? >>
Eliza is selling like hot sauce in Hell..
<< <i>it seems to me that the key words here are "ugly, unwanted, hags"....it has 5-10yr "potential" written all over it....
as opposed to looking at the pieces/parts....you have to have the "sum of the whole collection" mentality with the spouses....you will hit the key eventually so why worry which one is the "ugliest or most un-wanted".....
jmho >>
So far, I think the ugliest of them all have the highest mintages. Go figure.
Sadly at this point in time the true collector base for FS coins is likely no more than 2,500-4,000. (Higher for Liberty subset)
If you remove flippers hoping to catch the bottom it may be even lower than figures alone would indicate.
Even for the lowest mintage issues there seem to be sufficent coins to meet demand. (Excluding things such as 69 vs. 70 and First Strike).
Best hope for FS collectors is for there to be a dramatic increase in size of collector base in future.
All of these things can also be said for APEs and AGEs especially the burnished uncirculated issues.
Thanks Guys.
Eric
Wondercoin
Proof First Spouse Gold
2010 Filmore 6130
2010 Pierce 4775
2010 Buchanan 7110
2010 Lincoln 6766
Mint State First Spouse Gold
2010 Filmore 3482
2010 Pierce 3338
2010 Buchanan 5162
2010 Lincoln 3695
And the Pierce is the new First Spouse proof king at 4,775.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Unc. 4609, Proof 7684 - Jackson
Unc. 3826, Proof 6807 - Van Buren
Unc. 5162, Proof 7110 - Buchanan
If these numbers are accurate, the Van Buren is the mintage key in both uncirculated and proof, and defines the number of complete sets that can be assembled.
Jackson, however, is more well known and popular, so this will increase demand for his coin and support its price.
Buchanan is one of the least known presidents, so his coin will probably lag the Jackson in price despite its lower proof mintage.
Jefferson is immensely popular, but due to the high mintage his coin will probably track the price of gold for the foreseeable future. It might still outperform the others if a rising gold price reduces the premium on the lower mintage coins in the set.
IMO, owing a complete "Liberty" subset in unc. or proof (or both) can be numismatically rewarding and is a relatively low-risk venture financially at today's prices, regardless of how gold performs over the next several years.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Would collectors really pay a significant premium for all three of those uglies? >>
Hopefully not. And there's no reason to overpay for the FS coins, especially the ugly ones. I do like that aspect of it. For example a few weeks ago I noticed some folks paying $200/oz for the ASE 25th anniv sets. Sure that's demand related, no doubt, but it's still overpaying way past melt values. I never worry about that when purchasing my next FS.
--aap
<< <i>Sadly at this point in time the true collector base for FS coins is likely no more than 2,500-4,000. >>
Well, it's sad for the flippers I guess. Even if the collector base was 17 of us (it could go there soon!), I'd likely still keep buying for my collection. Mileage may vary
What do you see? I see a MASSIVE population of modern silver dollars about to blow past the Morgans surviving total population. I see multimillion mintage common dates right next to coins whose mintages look like rounding errors on the common dates. I see two coins that are holes in the chart. Thats the 2008W with the 07 reverse and and the 2011S. The 2008W is a serious coin buts its easy to say I dont collect die varieties and pass over it in the minds of some collectors but its tough to pass by the 2011s with such logic. Mint marks have a long history of being drastically stronger form of product differentiation than die varies are. There is a very rough formula for pricing a strong series king as long as you don,t have too many so called key dates with similar mintages.
Its PK=Ps(k)(ms/mk)^(a little less than 2)
Pk= price of key
Ps= price of second key in this case the 2006 w at $65
Ms= mintage of second key in this case 466,000
Mk= mintage of key in this case about 100,000
K= a constant that moves around in this case say about .8
the power term is 1.5 to 2 in this case say 1.8
SO PK= 65x.8x(466000/100000)^1.8= about a grand. Now don't put too much faith in this number because it very rough. This year the new second place coin could be the 2011w with a 300,000 mintage and the formula will then give you a mature key price closer to $750 for a run of the mill MS69. But the point is this this coin is incredibly strong in a series whose population looks like it has no end. Obviously this is just one coin in the 25th anniversary set but I think the 2011s will bring more than the raw 5 coin sets are now all by itself over time. And not too much time at that.
If you were not able to order one of the 25th silver sets at $299 from the Mint and you would like one then dont get real worried about spending say $600-$800 on one. Just shop around and find one that looks good. Try to see it in person if you can. Be a little quality conscious. Be patient and dont let this "falling knife" mentality effect you. The knife is already bouncing on the floor.
Mint State Silver Eagles
Year $1
1986..... 5,393,005
1987..... 11,442,335
1988..... 5,004,646
1989..... 5,203,327
1990..... 5,840,110
1991..... 7,191,066
1992..... 5,540,068
1993..... 6,763,762
1994..... 4,227,319
1995..... 4,672,051
1996..... 3,603,386
1997..... 4,295,004
1998..... 4,847,547
1999..... 7,408,640
2000..... 9,239,132
2001..... 9,001,711
2002..... 10,539,026
2003..... 8,495,008
2004..... 8,882,754
2005..... 8,891,025
2006..... 10,676,522
2006W.. 466,573
2007..... 9,028,036
2007W.. 690,891
2008..... 20,583,000
2008W.. 535,000
2008W07.. 47,000*
2009..... 30,459,000
2010..... 34,764,500
2011..... 40,000,000*
2011W... 400,000*
2011S... 99,997*
2012..... 30,000,000*
2012W.. 300,000*
2013..... 30,000,000*
2013W.. 400,000*
2014..... 30,000,000*
2014W.. 400,000*
Estimated Total by 2015....... 375,330,759
I share you sentiment concerning the 2011-S, but I also like the reverse proof equally as much. All in all... a great set of coins!
Wondercoin
Somewhere the mint gave out bad numbers, either planchets struck or the final final numbers. I am guessing it was the planchets struck that waere the bad ones. Didn't they claim only 7000 were struck or was it more? I remember going over this with 7/8 and he didn't believe me that the numbers could be this close to the final sales figures. All of them came within a couple hundred, so the sales numbers for 2010 were very accurate after all on a percentage basis.
And you are correct Half there was some bad data. Now just for context the guy that put the 6800 number out to 7/8 was that same guy that told us that the 2008W $50 plat was a 2200 mintage coin when the sales report read way over 3,000 he has a history of being dead on.
Wondercoin
<< <i>So if the proof buch came in at 7110 that is a far cry from the possible 5600 someone was predicting. I know all of us make predictions here and we are never 100% right, but the idea was floated that the proof buchs were short struck. >>
Look back at the posts. The number expected was short of 6800, possibility of 6300-6500, the far reach being short of 6000. I dont know where you get your definition of short struck, but, they are definitely in aggregate under the 15,000 ceiling, and as I recall the "sold out sign" caught many of us by surprise, before the "so-called" ordering period expired. So, unless someone who remains nameless has a better explanation, that is it.
7110 is not a bad coin, just not king of the proof Liberty subset. Clearly the Gold Haag's are dying slow an painful death, and except for the Liberty subset, I wouldnt care to have a position in any of them regardless of mintage.
Box of 20
<< <i>
Look back at the posts. The number expected was short of 6800, possibility of 6300-6500, the far reach being short of 6000. I dont know where you get your definition of short struck, but, they are definitely in aggregate under the 15,000 ceiling, and as I recall the "sold out sign" caught many of us by surprise, before the "so-called" ordering period expired. So, unless someone who remains nameless has a better explanation, that is it.
7110 is not a bad coin, just not king of the proof Liberty subset. Clearly the Gold Haag's are dying slow an painful death, and except for the Liberty subset, I wouldnt care to have a position in any of them regardless of mintage. >>
7/8 I did go back just to refresh my memory and here is the thread where we talk about scrap rates. As you can see I doubted the numbers back then,
BTW 7110 is so-so when compared to the rest of the spouse coin lowest proofs. I think over the very long-term nobody is going to melt any of the liberties except for possibly the first Jefferson. That leaves all the remaining coins to be traded.
The spouses I could see being melted down to coins with lower mintages than the Liberties, eventually prices will have to rebound and make those the deep keys. There is also the factor of the uglies having a dampening effect on the Liberties, who would pay three times for a Liberty when you can have three uglies with lower mintages for the same price and three times the gold?
Ina long time, possibly 50 years, the spouse coins will be the major series to own for modern gold. The future generation, today's babies, will not have the same values we have. You can see that in the Occupy protests, etc. I could see them flipping around the spouses to be the saviors of this country over the greedy Presidents. The numbers are just too low to be forgotten.
As I said before there are other series that show a long number of low mintages can have very high valuations. Anyway I wish the buch proof came in as low as was hoped, but the mint gave out bad numbers somewhere.
These lend a bit of inelasticity to the 06W price that are not affecting the 100,000 mintage 11RP and 11S coins. If you were to somehow negate these so that the 06W could find its "true value" in terms of calculating price for the two 11 coins it would help possibly.
Seat of the pants or IMO, either of the two 2011 coins in 69 are more like 400-500 and I think that may be generous. Lazy me, what do ebay sales show so far?
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Eric: What happened to the other (3) 2011-S pieces in your 99,997 mintage?
Wondercoin >>
If you look at the coins that have "limits" they almost always come in a few coins short of the max. ex the 20th anniversary sets
<< <i>I have this collection scattered in PCGS, NGC, and OGP with more PCGS than the rest. As the goal is to complete the set for my grandson I am wondering if perhaps I need to shift focus to another series. I am shy both Julias and a Sarah Polk unc of having a complete set. I am guaranteed to have the lowest mintage coins but am concerned that the market down the road will be weak or even nonexistent ( think commemoratives here) Will the collection/series have more value in a uniform TPG slab or will the expense to switch overwhelm any gain that might occur. I am also considering keeping either just the proofs or the uncs as a way to diversify and plow the money realized into platinum. I have started on the burnished and need only two for completion of that set. Again a mixture of raw and TPG slabs. Decisions decisions decisions.
My sentiments are:
Keep the coins in the variety of holders, rather than trying to make a "uniform" set with matched holders. As long as the set of coins is complete, I think diversity of holders makes the set more interesting.
Ditch the uncirculated First Spouses and keep the proofs. Your proof series is up-to-date while your unc. series is lacking three coins, so by keeping the proofs you will avoid the expense of purchasing these three coins in the aftermarket. The proofs have the same designs but look much nicer in hand. Long term, I think the proofs will be more in demand and thus will turn out to be better values than the uncs.
Completing your burnished plat set is a good idea. Scarcity offers downside protection, while metal value creates upside potential.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Ditch the uncirculated First Spouses and keep the proofs. Your proof series is up-to-date while your unc. series is lacking three coins, so by keeping the proofs you will avoid the expense of purchasing these three coins in the aftermarket. The proofs have the same designs but look much nicer in hand. Long term, I think the proofs will be more in demand and thus will turn out to be better values than the uncs.
Completing your burnished plat set is a good idea. Scarcity offers downside protection, while metal value creates upside potential. >>
Interesting and contradicting. The Unc spouse coins have lower mintages than the proofs just like the plats. Yet, you see the demand for the proof spouse coins better than the Unc but just the opposite for the plats.
<< <i>Interesting and contradicting. The Unc spouse coins have lower mintages than the proofs just like the plats. Yet, you see the demand for the proof spouse coins better than the Unc but just the opposite for the plats.
There are some differences between the gold Spouses and the Platinum Eagles that make the burnished plats a better buy, in my opinion.
The 2006-2008-W burnished plats are a closed 3-year "short set," consisting of only 3 designs in 4 sizes for a total of 12 coins. Thus they are much more affordable as a complete set than the 1997-2011-W proofs, which total 51 coins so far with more to come.
The 2006-2008-W proof plats have the same designs as the burnished plats, but the similarities to the gold Spouses end there. While 10 of the 12 burnished plats have mintages below 3800, the 2006-W and 2007-W proof plats were minted in sufficient quantities that they are now available at a small premium over spot, and are likely to remain that way for some time to come. So I think the low-mintage burnished coins of these years have greater appreciation potential.
The 2008-W proof plats all have low mintages, but they are still 1.5 to 1.8 times as plentiful as the 2008-W burnished coins. This is comparable to the mintage ratios of many recent First Spouse coins. However, while most First Spouse coins fetch similar prices in uncirculated and proof finishes, the 2008-W proof plats bring considerably higher prices than their burnished counterparts. Because of this disparity, I think the 2008-W burnished plats have some catching up to do, and are the better buy at this time.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
At $1792 I'm tempting to pick one.