<< <i>There may be a lot of returns of the 2011 $50 AGE. These may not be reflected in the sales numbers. I have heard a lot of "quality" or lack there of of this particular issue.
Oh and 9900! >>
Yup, I returned several, reordered & returned, reordered & returned . . . . Scratches, dings, water(?) spots, you name it, these things seemed to be plagued with problems.
One thing of note ... the figures being tossed around here are outdated. The US Mint has sold close to 8,500 2011-W $50's already with sales continuing:
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN 8,495
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
<< <i>One thing of note ... the figures being tossed around here are outdated. The US Mint has sold close to 8,500 2011-W $50's already with sales continuing:
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN 8,495
Wondercoin >>
I know we discussed this before but do you think the Mint numbers are gross sales or net sales (gross less returns and cancelled orders)?
I thought I would ask a question here instead of creating a new thread about it, now someone let me know if I need to be quiet and hush hush, but is anybody here excited about the LG FS unc. coin at 1095 mintage? Is this something I should pick up, throw in the sdb and forget about? What about the LH FS unc.?
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
Sorry about that I should have looked more closely. It appears they went on sale 12/1/11, but was wondering Eric what your thoughts were on the long time potential on the $5 Army and MOH unc. coins? Maybe the sub 10,000 mintage will give a kick in the pants to the gold commem. market. What do you think about the O Say Can You See $5 gold coming up in 2012?
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
<< <i>Sorry about that I should have looked more closely. It appears it went on sale 12/1/11 but how far into next year do they sell these coins? I must admit that I only have collected Jefferson's Liberty so far. >>
They sell for roughly one year so I would expect the Garfield coin to remain available throughout most of next year. The mint tries to strike to demand with spouse coins so if they short struck the coin and it goes to back order late in the summer or early fall than it may be done well before the one year mark. There's just no way to know for certain though, but IMO all of the current spouses will end quite lower than years past. It wouldn't surprise me if all the coins from 2011 end in the 2600 - 3200 range, based on current sales. IIRC Eric mentions a formula in his book for roughly approximating the final mintage of releases like these. Something like 2.5 times the sales total through eight weeks IIRC.
Every $5 mint state gold commem with a sub 10,000 mintage trades for over $800 so over time the coin(s) are almost certain to get pricey. Hard to tell if that will be the next 12 months or not.
The MOH and Army coins sales were around 6,250-6700 for months and months! Sometimes I wish we didnt have weekly sales updates. We'd have a lot more sleepers if people weren't watching so closely.
Then again, the First Spouses buck that trend. Sales that look like the Pan Pac gold coins and no one cares.
"I'll split the atom! I am the fifth dimension! I am the eighth wonder of the world!" -Gef the talking mongoose.
So, if they didn't have weekly reports, how would you have know what the mintages were? Do you have someone on the inside of the mint or work there? Maybe you are a Congressman and get inside Info.
More than 15 years later, the Smithsonian $5 gold only nets around $1,000 in PCGS-MS70 (after fees) with its 9.000 mintage (and that particular MS70 is tough to grade!) (ebay # 230717091896). The coin sells for much less in MS69 grade as well. At a 10,000 mintage, a number of these gold commem coins are worth close to melt (e.g. First Flight, SLC). Why I think Eric's past historical information might not be all that relevant in this case of the roughly 8,000 mintage 2011 gold commem coins is because that historical information took place at a time when there were no super low mintage gold spouse "$10 Commems" coming out every 90 days. There is a reason these 2011 $5 Gold Commems only sold 8,000 coins and why future $5 editions might have similar low mintages (or even lower?); namely because at the same time spouse after mint state spouse is closing at around 3,000 -4,000 mintage. Hence, the question becomes "what half oz. of gold (commems) will perform better in 3-5+ years.... (2) 8,000 mintage (less than) 1/4 oz gold coins or (1) 3,500 mintage 1/2 oz gold coin"? That is the "$64,000 question" right guys?
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Wondercoin's points are all valid. The reason I think the Army mint state is going to be OK is the mintage is relatively low at 8 grand or less and the ARMY theme may help the coin. There are a ton of people that have served of have a family member thats been in the Army. The other thing I like is the coin came out of the mint at five hundred bucks. It most certainly is not going to go down from there. If the coin goes to $800 in 5 years thats a 10 percent annual return with very little risk. The coin is likely to torch the performance of 90% of all the "indexs" you can quote.
The coin is not a 2008W $10 mint state gold or a 2011S or 95W or a mint state Van Buren Liberty or even 2008 fractional platinum but its going to be OK.
<< <i>More than 15 years later, the Smithsonian $5 gold only nets around $1,000 in PCGS-MS70 (after fees) with its 9.000 mintage (and that particular MS70 is tough to grade!) (ebay # 230717091896). The coin sells for much less in MS69 grade as well. At a 10,000 mintage, a number of these gold commem coins are worth close to melt (e.g. First Flight, SLC). Why I think Eric's past historical information might not be all that relevant in this case of the roughly 8,000 mintage 2011 gold commem coins is because that historical information took place at a time when there were no super low mintage gold spouse "$10 Commems" coming out every 90 days. There is a reason these 2011 $5 Gold Commems only sold 8,000 coins and why future $5 editions might have similar low mintages (or even lower?); namely because at the same time spouse after mint state spouse is closing at around 3,000 -4,000 mintage. Hence, the question becomes "what half oz. of gold (commems) will perform better in 3-5+ years.... (2) 8,000 mintage (less than) 1/4 oz gold coins or (1) 3,500 mintage 1/2 oz gold coin"? That is the "$64,000 question" right guys?
As I've said before, as painful as it might be in the short term, a dramatic decline in base metal prices would help to bring collecting back within reach of future collectors. As it is now, collecting any of the gold series requires deep pockets.
Only time will tell but when comparing the FS to the ARMY/MOH coins it is worth noting that people tend to collect what they like or that for which they have an affiliation.
Numismatics is still a 90-95% male dominated field. A bunch of middle aged and older men have a greater interest in military related items than a bunch of dead presidents wives. Sounds very sexist but I'm afraid it is true.
There are 20+ million veterans of military service who all reccognize what a Medal of Honor stands for and over 12 million who have served in U.S. Army. With those numbers in mind I believe they will provide a larger long term base of interest/support for the MOH/Army coins than what could be expected for the FS.
Do you think it is worth getting the non-FS Army & MOH gold coins or leave them raw? My thinking is if most buyers are military related, they won't really care if they are graded or not.
This also brings up another question.
Again, if they are military related buyers, do you think they will pick the MS coin or the much prettier proof version? I have both and if I were to just pick one to give to someone, I would pick the proof. It screams, "WOW" much more than the MS coin.
<< Again, if they are military related buyers, do you think they will pick the MS coin or the much prettier proof version? I have both and if I were to just pick one to give to someone, I would pick the proof. It screams, "WOW" much more than the MS coin. >>
That's the reason why proof commems routinely outsell uncircs during the initial ordering period.
<< <i>There are 20+ million veterans of military service who all reccognize what a Medal of Honor stands for and over 12 million who have served in U.S. Army. With those numbers in mind I believe they will provide a larger long term base of interest/support for the MOH/Army coins than what could be expected for the FS. >>
People will be buying them as gifts, etc. rather than as collectibles. So, where will the demand be? Dull coins or flashy coins? Granted, the mintage of the proofs are 2X+ the MS but if the demand for the proof is 3X+ more than the MS coins because they look better and make a bigger impact when given away, where will the premium be?
<< <i>Looks like the 2008-W uncirculated 1/4 Gold eagle will remain king.
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551 >>
Isn't the '08-w $10 @ 8883? Got it right here out of ej's book on pg. 132. Not sure I follow unless you're speculating that those figures will go up. I used to collect a lot of gold over the years, but it's just too pricey for this Joe Sixpack anymore.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
<< <i>Looks like the 2008-W uncirculated 1/4 Gold eagle will remain king.
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551 >>
Isn't the '08-w $10 @ 8883? Got it right here out of ej's book on pg. 132. Not sure I follow unless you're speculating that those figures will go up. I used to collect a lot of gold over the years, but it's just too pricey for this Joe Sixpack anymore. >>
I guess the term "king" is how you define it but I don't view mintage rankings across denomination lines. I don't think "the market" does.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
With this weeks reported 500+ jump in weekly sales and the fact that they remain on sale it seems very likely final sales will be above 8,800............
Eric, I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still? Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting!
NPD1078
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members: jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
<< <i>Eric, I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still? Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting! >>
NPD. You will learn a ton on this thread and in the general U.S. Coins forums.
Beer is Proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy -Benjamin Franklin-
I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still?
Eric does a great job in setting up a methodology that anyone can use to analyze a Modern Series. Beyond that, he did some good research using good sources to get a feel for final valuations. You are immersed in the right material.
I made the mistake a long time ago of not buying into a Modern rarity when I had the means to do it. I haven't made that mistake since, and the Burnished Gold has paid great dividends along the way. If you subscribe to Eric's methodology, some of the potential in the Burnished AGEs has already come to fruition.
OTOH - The Burnished Plats have had their ups & downs, and what we know now is that the collector market isn't as extensive for Plats as we might have thought earlier. This, I think - is not a bad thing. To me, it means that the Plat opportunity is still there. The series is well-enough established and as long as they are still making the 1 oz. Proofs, it can still pick up some interest with new participants. At $180/oz. less than gold currently, you can't go too wrong.
Regarding the 1/10 oz. coins, both series seem to be active, as I track them on ebay.
The First Spouses seem to have some following, but I think we're in the middle of the low point for the series, in terms of mintages - so I believe that if you are going to collect them, we are at the point of no return right now.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind.....
Collection under construction: VG Barber Quarters & Halves
Without regard for the plastic nuances, I'd put the 2006 RP and 1999-w $10 at the top of my Gold Eagle Keys/Kings List. The 2008-w $10, the 1999-w $5, and the 2011-w (if it stays under 11K) are Queens in my opinion.
I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind..... >>
I agree the 2011-S is "better," but it's demand that fuels price and I believe the demand will be for the RP. Not so surprisingly, the 2011-W set proof is strong and I think will remain strong, even though the MS-W should be the 3rd most expensive coin in the set.
<< <i>Eric, I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still? Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting! >>
I just opened my Jan. 2012 issue of CW. The cover reads: "Investing Basics. Buy rare coins wisely for monetary growth." What is just LOVE is that of the (only!) five coins featured on the cover, a raw Julia Unc is one of them. This must just drive the modern haters NUTS!! I just LOVE it!!!
It reminds me of when The Numismatist had a '94 Plat Proof on the cover some time ago.
Of course, the question remains, will Julie remain the queen....
<< <i>I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind..... >>
Thanks for taking the time to read our book. It just reflects our school of thought.
Its very hard to predict the TIMING of a modern coins price behavior. In the end I think there are three kinds of great moderns.
1. Coins that are part of a very popular set that for some reason the mint created an anomaly due to a production limitation or a marketing department error. 1995W silver eagle, 2011s silver eagle, 2008W $10 gold eagle, fractional buffalos etc. These coins run hard right out of the gate and frequently dont look back. Dont get me wrong they do have a random walk appreciation path and frequently see a 30 % correction at some point but they lift and go until a sibling comes in with a lower mintage.
2. Common coins that get promoted by strong marketers. These coins cant be too rare because they need to be able to pick up large volumes of coins and be able to dump them to the uniformed. The point is its hard to predict when and what the large marketing outfits are going to push and make no mistake about it they can and do drive a coins price crazy at least for a while. This kind of price spike is strong and much faster than what pure collector driven growth will create. Good short ride but in the end the coins are not going to be coinage royalty.
3. Coins that are seriously rare and over looked but have good set structure. Only problem is serious rarity can be a problem. You cant deal in volume and collector growth is a slow process that can be interrupted by melt price spikes among other things. It is troubled infancy issues as we cover in our book that produce MEGA coins but just because a coin is going to be the mother of all evil coins as it matures does not indicate that it will not sit around slowly growing for 10 or more years before they start to move. Matt Proof Gold and Pac Pac slugs issued prior to WW One come to mind. Millions of reasons no one wanted one until 20 years later when they could not be found and 50 years later you had to sell you first born child to get one. My best guess of coins that have a shot at this kind of greatness are still the following although many will point out that I have liked them for a while and they have not had but a 100% run from issue price over the last 3-5 years.
1999 W $10 gold mint state 69 eagles. They had better find that remaining 4000 coins in the roughly 6000 budgeted striking run or these coins when all the dust settles are going to be very serious coins. They have the potential to be the mother of all modern coins in your children's lifetimes but something could go wrong so dont load up on them.
2006, 2007 and 2008 W changing reverse fractional platinum eagles are serious (rare) coins that are over looked and unloved today because they are not struck on gold but that is precisely the kind of lame reason that makes them one of my favorite long term collector bets at todays price levels. I like $10 and $25 proof platinum eagles for the same reason and they make one lovely set.....Man they are a good looking set of 12 coins and they are THE HIGH END EXPRESSION OF THE CHANGING REVERSE STRUCTURE SHOWING UP IN POCKET CHANGE.
I like the $10 Liberty mint state VanBuren. Its a rare good looking gold modern with classic looks and not only is its four coin Liberty sub set affordable its going to get hit by promoters at some point in my best guess. It may not have to sit around 10 years to hit 3-4 grand. But again promoter acceleration of the maturity cycle is hard to foresee.
First spouse gold despite its lack of series cohesion, with many coins that compose the ugliest series known to man will have some gems in it. Its just hard to see which generic will be that coin and by extension which one will be the lowest mintage.
This is how I address the problem. I have my own personal collection that is made up of tomorrows super coins but I dont hold 10 of them.
All the fractional $5 and $10 gold "w"eagles 99, 06, 07, 08 in set form. All the fractional $10, $25 and $50 changing reverse platinum eagles in MS and proof form. Four coin mint state liberty gold subset Mint state buffalo gold and silver type set. All mint state silver eagles with a mint mark in set form.
These coins are not held 10 coins deep and they are not intended for a short term (5 year) flip but they are the coins I want to have 25 years from now Lord willing.
The rest of my inventory that represents the bulk of my holding are held in large volume for a less than 5 years flip. These are coins that I think will get hit by marketers and see an accelerated maturity cycle. Now the coins may not have serious legs but they should do well on a percentage basis and then I will dump all but one. 2011s is a good new example. 2008 W $10 gold eagles is an older example. They are good coins but they will run out of room to grow then its out the door they go.
So I guess I said all that to say this. Spread your self around between the mint marked silver gold and platinum fractional eagles. If you have to pay over $1500 for the coin stay off it because moderns hit the value ceiling around 4-5 grand. Frankly better keep your buy price under $800 if you can. The $5 W mint state gold and all changing reverse $10 platinum eagles that you mention are good coins that marketers have not hit yet so they are still very affordable. But as much as I like them I cant say with any certainty that they will out perform better date silver eagles over the next 5-10 years.
Eric Wow, a big giant THANK YOU! You are contributing so much knowledge to many people here, most like me you will never meet in person (our loss), and yet you are giving out so much information about collecting & investing in modern coins without any expectation of a return favor. I only wish in some way, I could give back a fraction of what you have given. A couple days ago, I bought your book (iBooks) and have not been able to put it down.
You've gained a huge fan in me . . . I only wish I knew of additional ways to learn from your knowledge and analysis. Do you have a web site, or anything else?
How can I "search" on these forums for all posts by EricJ96 ?
<< <i>Can't the proof silver eagles be put into IRA's?
I know the gold eagles can.
I think this is a place where a nice number of the proof SAE end up..... This caused a huge spike in the proof GAE a few years ago.....
Don't understand why you would put a proof instead of a bullion in but it appears to happen.
This is one reason why the proof appears to have a much larger collector base then the burnished unc coins..... >>
Proofs tend to go into IRA holding and holdings of individuals that don't collect coins because marketers tell the buyer that proof eagles would not be subject to confiscation under the language of the gold ban law issued under FDR because they are special collector coins. Only problem is that's not current law and the IRA rules clearly state that proof and mint state eagles are non numismatic and therefore acceptable in IRAs. The classic gold eagles are too if they do not carry a high mark up over melt. Bottom line is through misleading marketing many of the proof gold and silver eagles get absorbed into retirement accounts.
Now please dont get me wrong. There are plenty of good IRA Companies that use proof eagles in their customers IRA account and do so at low mark ups to melt and are a reasonable value. I have composed or reviewed some of their marketing documents at their request from time to time.
John Maben and I are working on a new book. Its not as technical in nature as the first book because the old text was hard for some new collectors to understand. "The Fifty Most Popular Moderns" will be the next place a large dose of moderns commentary is coming from plus it will have all the latest mintage data I have been able to round up. It will likely have the finest mintage charts anywhere in the appendix.
Other than that just watch the boards, most anything worth knowing shows up here first in real time. I always liked David Halls Rare Coins "the velvet tray news letter" and thought that moderns collectors needed such an issue. Talk to John, maybe he can come up with something for you guys.
Eric, wishing you & yours the best of health and a fabulous New Year. Much appreciation for putting the facts out there. Best of luck with your next highly anticipated publication.
<< <i>Thanks Raven, Its good for a man to have a little extra light reading on the shelf for the new year.
Eric >>
Wishing you and yours the same Eric. I echo Nooker's sentiments on your immense contributions to our hobby. I can't wait for the new book. Thanks so much!!
<< <i>Thanks Raven, Its good for a man to have a little extra light reading on the shelf for the new year.
Eric >>
Wishing you and yours the same Eric. I echo Nooker's sentiments on your immense contributions to our hobby. I can't wait for the new book. Thanks so much!! >>
+1. I've learned a lot about moderns and the hobby in general from this thread in the last year on the forums. Have a happy new year everyone and let's hope for a great 2012.
I'm looking forward to the new book, Eric.
Successful transactions with keepdachange, tizofthe, adriana, wondercoin
Per Michael's Mint News Blog of December 30, 2011: "...If the US Mint does take steps to reorganize their portfolio, they may want to reconsider reinstating some of the fractional weight gold and platinum coins that were previously discontinued...."
Comments
#9900
<< <i>There may be a lot of returns of the 2011 $50 AGE. These may not be reflected in the sales numbers. I have heard a lot of "quality" or lack there of of this particular issue.
Oh and 9900! >>
Yup, I returned several, reordered & returned, reordered & returned . . . . Scratches, dings, water(?) spots, you name it, these things seemed to be plagued with problems.
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN 8,495
Wondercoin
<< <i>One thing of note ... the figures being tossed around here are outdated. The US Mint has sold close to 8,500 2011-W $50's already with sales continuing:
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN 8,495
Wondercoin >>
I know we discussed this before but do you think the Mint numbers are gross sales or net sales (gross less returns and cancelled orders)?
<< <i>Sorry about that I should have looked more closely. It appears it went on sale 12/1/11 but how far into next year do they sell these coins? I must admit that I only have collected Jefferson's Liberty so far. >>
They sell for roughly one year so I would expect the Garfield coin to remain available throughout most of next year. The mint tries to strike to demand with spouse coins so if they short struck the coin and it goes to back order late in the summer or early fall than it may be done well before the one year mark. There's just no way to know for certain though, but IMO all of the current spouses will end quite lower than years past. It wouldn't surprise me if all the coins from 2011 end in the 2600 - 3200 range, based on current sales. IIRC Eric mentions a formula in his book for roughly approximating the final mintage of releases like these. Something like 2.5 times the sales total through eight weeks IIRC.
Eric
Few offerings below $600
<< <i>Prices for the unc Gold Army and MOH appear to have already firmed up on Ebay.
Few offerings below $600 >>
I'm curious, what was the final price from the mint a couple of weeks ago?
<< <i>
<< <i>Prices for the unc Gold Army and MOH appear to have already firmed up on Ebay.
Few offerings below $600 >>
I'm curious, what was the final price from the mint a couple of weeks ago? >>
The final price at the time (Friday) they went dark was $500 ea.
Then again, the First Spouses buck that trend. Sales that look like the Pan Pac gold coins and no one cares.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
But you're right, I always thought the Smithstonian gold was pretty cheap compared to its gold cousins with similar mintages.
The coin is not a 2008W $10 mint state gold or a 2011S or 95W or a mint state Van Buren Liberty or even 2008 fractional platinum but its going to be OK.
IMHO
<< <i>More than 15 years later, the Smithsonian $5 gold only nets around $1,000 in PCGS-MS70 (after fees) with its 9.000 mintage (and that particular MS70 is tough to grade!) (ebay # 230717091896). The coin sells for much less in MS69 grade as well. At a 10,000 mintage, a number of these gold commem coins are worth close to melt (e.g. First Flight, SLC). Why I think Eric's past historical information might not be all that relevant in this case of the roughly 8,000 mintage 2011 gold commem coins is because that historical information took place at a time when there were no super low mintage gold spouse "$10 Commems" coming out every 90 days. There is a reason these 2011 $5 Gold Commems only sold 8,000 coins and why future $5 editions might have similar low mintages (or even lower?); namely because at the same time spouse after mint state spouse is closing at around 3,000 -4,000 mintage. Hence, the question becomes "what half oz. of gold (commems) will perform better in 3-5+ years.... (2) 8,000 mintage (less than) 1/4 oz gold coins or (1) 3,500 mintage 1/2 oz gold coin"? That is the "$64,000 question" right guys?
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
..............................................................................................................................................................................................................
As I've said before, as painful as it might be in the short term, a dramatic decline in base metal prices would help to bring collecting back within reach of future collectors. As it is now, collecting any of the gold series requires deep pockets.
Only time will tell but when comparing the FS to the ARMY/MOH coins it is worth noting that people tend to collect what they like or that for which they have an affiliation.
Numismatics is still a 90-95% male dominated field.
A bunch of middle aged and older men have a greater interest in military related items than a bunch of dead presidents wives.
Sounds very sexist but I'm afraid it is true.
There are 20+ million veterans of military service who all reccognize what a Medal of Honor stands for and over 12 million who have served in U.S. Army. With those numbers in mind I believe they will provide a larger long term base of interest/support for the MOH/Army coins than what could be expected for the FS.
Do you think it is worth getting the non-FS Army & MOH gold coins or leave them raw? My thinking is if most buyers are military related, they won't really care if they are graded or not.
This also brings up another question.
Again, if they are military related buyers, do you think they will pick the MS coin or the much prettier proof version? I have both and if I were to just pick one to give to someone, I would pick the proof. It screams, "WOW" much more than the MS coin.
That's the reason why proof commems routinely outsell uncircs during the initial ordering period.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>There are 20+ million veterans of military service who all reccognize what a Medal of Honor stands for and over 12 million who have served in U.S. Army. With those numbers in mind I believe they will provide a larger long term base of interest/support for the MOH/Army coins than what could be expected for the FS. >>
People will be buying them as gifts, etc. rather than as collectibles. So, where will the demand be? Dull coins or flashy coins? Granted, the mintage of the proofs are 2X+ the MS but if the demand for the proof is 3X+ more than the MS coins because they look better and make a bigger impact when given away, where will the premium be?
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551
<< <i>Looks like the 2008-W uncirculated 1/4 Gold eagle will remain king.
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551 >>
If gold keeps dropping and the Mint reduces prices accordingly, you can expect more sales. Is this still the lowest 1 oz eagle?
<< <i>Looks like the 2008-W uncirculated 1/4 Gold eagle will remain king.
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551 >>
Isn't the '08-w $10 @ 8883? Got it right here out of ej's book on pg. 132. Not sure I follow unless you're speculating that those figures will go up. I used to collect a lot of gold over the years, but it's just too pricey for this Joe Sixpack anymore.
<< <i>
<< <i>Looks like the 2008-W uncirculated 1/4 Gold eagle will remain king.
2011-W 1 ounce uncirculated coin took a big jump up this week and it remains on sale............
2011 AMERICAN EAGLE GOLD UNCIRCULATED COIN One ounce ............
Sales year to date............8,495
Weekly increase...................551 >>
Isn't the '08-w $10 @ 8883? Got it right here out of ej's book on pg. 132. Not sure I follow unless you're speculating that those figures will go up. I used to collect a lot of gold over the years, but it's just too pricey for this Joe Sixpack anymore. >>
I guess the term "king" is how you define it but I don't view mintage rankings across denomination lines. I don't think "the market" does.
With this weeks reported 500+ jump in weekly sales and the fact that they remain on sale it seems very likely final sales will be above 8,800............
I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still?
Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting!
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members:
jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
<< <i>Eric,
I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still?
Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting! >>
I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still?
Eric does a great job in setting up a methodology that anyone can use to analyze a Modern Series. Beyond that, he did some good research using good sources to get a feel for final valuations. You are immersed in the right material.
I made the mistake a long time ago of not buying into a Modern rarity when I had the means to do it. I haven't made that mistake since, and the Burnished Gold has paid great dividends along the way. If you subscribe to Eric's methodology, some of the potential in the Burnished AGEs has already come to fruition.
OTOH - The Burnished Plats have had their ups & downs, and what we know now is that the collector market isn't as extensive for Plats as we might have thought earlier. This, I think - is not a bad thing. To me, it means that the Plat opportunity is still there. The series is well-enough established and as long as they are still making the 1 oz. Proofs, it can still pick up some interest with new participants. At $180/oz. less than gold currently, you can't go too wrong.
Regarding the 1/10 oz. coins, both series seem to be active, as I track them on ebay.
The First Spouses seem to have some following, but I think we're in the middle of the low point for the series, in terms of mintages - so I believe that if you are going to collect them, we are at the point of no return right now.
I knew it would happen.
I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind.....
<< <i>To toss my 2 cents into the thread.....
I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind..... >>
I agree the 2011-S is "better," but it's demand that fuels price and I believe the demand will be for the RP. Not so surprisingly, the 2011-W set proof is strong and I think will remain strong, even though the MS-W should be the 3rd most expensive coin in the set.
<< <i>Eric,
I am new to this forum but have read you book (over and over). I started reading from post 1 in this thread but i am only to Sept 2008 and will read it to the end. I wondering do you still fee the same way about the 2006- 2008 W Burnished Platinum and Gold series? I mainly am wondering about the $10 plats and $5 gold. Also I assume you still like the FS series still?
Thank you for all your knowledge on modern coin collecting! >>
It reminds me of when The Numismatist had a '94 Plat Proof on the cover some time ago.
Of course, the question remains, will Julie remain the queen....
<< <i>I think the 2011-S is going to be a slightly better coin then the 2011-P RP..... People collect the Unc coins but not necessarily the proof coins..... Both are great coins in my mind..... >>
2008-W proof, mintage 713k: $65.
2008-W burnished, mintage 444k: $48.
Proofs are more widely collected than burnished, at least for now. This is reflected in mintage figures as well as aftermarket prices.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I know the gold eagles can.
I think this is a place where a nice number of the proof SAE end up..... This caused a huge spike in the proof GAE a few years ago.....
Don't understand why you would put a proof instead of a bullion in but it appears to happen.
This is one reason why the proof appears to have a much larger collector base then the burnished unc coins.....
Thanks for taking the time to read our book. It just reflects our school of thought.
Its very hard to predict the TIMING of a modern coins price behavior. In the end I think there are three kinds of great moderns.
1. Coins that are part of a very popular set that for some reason the mint created an anomaly due to a production limitation or a marketing department error. 1995W silver eagle, 2011s silver eagle, 2008W $10 gold eagle, fractional buffalos etc. These coins run hard right out of the gate and frequently dont look back. Dont get me wrong they do have a random walk appreciation path and frequently see a 30 % correction at some point but they lift and go until a sibling comes in with a lower mintage.
2. Common coins that get promoted by strong marketers. These coins cant be too rare because they need to be able to pick up large volumes of coins and be able to dump them to the uniformed. The point is its hard to predict when and what the large marketing outfits are going to push and make no mistake about it they can and do drive a coins price crazy at least for a while. This kind of price spike is strong and much faster than what pure collector driven growth will create. Good short ride but in the end the coins are not going to be coinage royalty.
3. Coins that are seriously rare and over looked but have good set structure. Only problem is serious rarity can be a problem. You cant deal in volume and collector growth is a slow process that can be interrupted by melt price spikes among other things. It is troubled infancy issues as we cover in our book that produce MEGA coins but just because a coin is going to be the mother of all evil coins as it matures does not indicate that it will not sit around slowly growing for 10 or more years before they start to move. Matt Proof Gold and Pac Pac slugs issued prior to WW One come to mind. Millions of reasons no one wanted one until 20 years later when they could not be found and 50 years later you had to sell you first born child to get one. My best guess of coins that have a shot at this kind of greatness are still the following although many will point out that I have liked them for a while and they have not had but a 100% run from issue price over the last 3-5 years.
1999 W $10 gold mint state 69 eagles. They had better find that remaining 4000 coins in the roughly 6000 budgeted striking run or these coins when all the dust settles are going to be very serious coins. They have the potential to be the mother of all modern coins in your children's lifetimes but something could go wrong so dont load up on them.
2006, 2007 and 2008 W changing reverse fractional platinum eagles are serious (rare) coins that are over looked and unloved today because they are not struck on gold but that is precisely the kind of lame reason that makes them one of my favorite long term collector bets at todays price levels. I like $10 and $25 proof platinum eagles for the same reason and they make one lovely set.....Man they are a good looking set of 12 coins and they are THE HIGH END EXPRESSION OF THE CHANGING REVERSE STRUCTURE SHOWING UP IN POCKET CHANGE.
I like the $10 Liberty mint state VanBuren. Its a rare good looking gold modern with classic looks and not only is its four coin Liberty sub set affordable its going to get hit by promoters at some point in my best guess. It may not have to sit around 10 years to hit 3-4 grand. But again promoter acceleration of the maturity cycle is hard to foresee.
First spouse gold despite its lack of series cohesion, with many coins that compose the ugliest series known to man will have some gems in it. Its just hard to see which generic will be that coin and by extension which one will be the lowest mintage.
This is how I address the problem. I have my own personal collection that is made up of tomorrows super coins but I dont hold 10 of them.
All the fractional $5 and $10 gold "w"eagles 99, 06, 07, 08 in set form.
All the fractional $10, $25 and $50 changing reverse platinum eagles in MS and proof form.
Four coin mint state liberty gold subset
Mint state buffalo gold and silver type set.
All mint state silver eagles with a mint mark in set form.
These coins are not held 10 coins deep and they are not intended for a short term (5 year) flip but they are the coins I want to have 25 years from now Lord willing.
The rest of my inventory that represents the bulk of my holding are held in large volume for a less than 5 years flip. These are coins that I think will get hit by marketers and see an accelerated maturity cycle. Now the coins may not have serious legs but they should do well on a percentage basis and then I will dump all but one. 2011s is a good new example. 2008 W $10 gold eagles is an older example. They are good coins but they will run out of room to grow then its out the door they go.
So I guess I said all that to say this. Spread your self around between the mint marked silver gold and platinum fractional eagles. If you have to pay over $1500 for the coin stay off it because moderns hit the value ceiling around 4-5 grand. Frankly better keep your buy price under $800 if you can. The $5 W mint state gold and all changing reverse $10 platinum eagles that you mention are good coins that marketers have not hit yet so they are still very affordable. But as much as I like them I cant say with any certainty that they will out perform better date silver eagles over the next 5-10 years.
Wow, a big giant THANK YOU! You are contributing so much knowledge to many people here, most like me you will never meet in person (our loss), and yet you are giving out so much information about collecting & investing in modern coins without any expectation of a return favor. I only wish in some way, I could give back a fraction of what you have given. A couple days ago, I bought your book (iBooks) and have not been able to put it down.
You've gained a huge fan in me . . . I only wish I knew of additional ways to learn from your knowledge and analysis. Do you have a web site, or anything else?
How can I "search" on these forums for all posts by EricJ96 ?
Mark
<< <i>Can't the proof silver eagles be put into IRA's?
I know the gold eagles can.
I think this is a place where a nice number of the proof SAE end up..... This caused a huge spike in the proof GAE a few years ago.....
Don't understand why you would put a proof instead of a bullion in but it appears to happen.
This is one reason why the proof appears to have a much larger collector base then the burnished unc coins..... >>
Proofs tend to go into IRA holding and holdings of individuals that don't collect coins because marketers tell the buyer that proof eagles would not be subject to confiscation under the language of the gold ban law issued under FDR because they are special collector coins. Only problem is that's not current law and the IRA rules clearly state that proof and mint state eagles are non numismatic and therefore acceptable in IRAs. The classic gold eagles are too if they do not carry a high mark up over melt. Bottom line is through misleading marketing many of the proof gold and silver eagles get absorbed into retirement accounts.
Now please dont get me wrong. There are plenty of good IRA Companies that use proof eagles in their customers IRA account and do so at low mark ups to melt and are a reasonable value. I have composed or reviewed some of their marketing documents at their request from time to time.
John Maben and I are working on a new book. Its not as technical in nature as the first book because the old text was hard for some new collectors to understand. "The Fifty Most Popular Moderns" will be the next place a large dose of moderns commentary is coming from plus it will have all the latest mintage data I have been able to round up. It will likely have the finest mintage charts anywhere in the appendix.
Other than that just watch the boards, most anything worth knowing shows up here first in real time. I always liked David Halls Rare Coins "the velvet tray news letter" and thought that moderns collectors needed such an issue. Talk to John, maybe he can come up with something for you guys.
Eric
Your book is now on my book shelf, a very good book after looking though most of it in the few days after xmas.....
Happy new year to all....
Eric
<< <i>Thanks Raven, Its good for a man to have a little extra light reading on the shelf for the new year.
Eric >>
Wishing you and yours the same Eric. I echo Nooker's sentiments on your immense contributions to our hobby. I can't wait for the new book. Thanks so much!!
<< <i>
<< <i>Thanks Raven, Its good for a man to have a little extra light reading on the shelf for the new year.
Eric >>
Wishing you and yours the same Eric. I echo Nooker's sentiments on your immense contributions to our hobby. I can't wait for the new book. Thanks so much!! >>
+1. I've learned a lot about moderns and the hobby in general from this thread in the last year on the forums. Have a happy new year everyone and let's hope for a great 2012.
I'm looking forward to the new book, Eric.
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