Eric THANK YOU for answering my questions. I think it's incredible that you take time away from your day to provided myself and the other members of this foruum with your updated information. You have no idea the knowledge that I have gained from you and reading your book. I can't thank you enough for it. I just received another copy of your book from MCM with my latest order (thank you John Maben) and have passed it on to a family member. I am looking forward to your next one.
The 1999 W American Gold Eagle is a tricky one for me. I have tried many times to grab the $5 AGE MS-67 or less for under $550 (can be had for $700 +) with no luck and can't seem to touch the $10 AGE MS-67 which is my preference of the two for under $900 (can be had for $1000 +). I am just wondering if at those prices are they near the point where they may be close to hitting the value ceiling of each. Just as an example paying $950 for the $10 1999 W or the same $950 for a current Mint release FS or even $1000 for a handful of 2006-2008 W AGE fracs.
Enjoy the FUN show! And thank you again for all you insight...
NPD1078
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members: jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
The 1999w $10 gold is a major wild card. It could stay quite flat for years or turn into the strongest modern gold eagle of all 4 denominations mint state or proof. Thats why I tell people that like moderns and can afford a 69 to go buy one for the collection but dont load up. Same is true for the $ 99w. I dont follow my own advice sometime because every time I see one thats nice I end up buying it. :-)
Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold. W mint marked silver eagles are under priced right now. So too are the 2011s silver eagle and the 2011Reverse proof.
Spread your self around best you can and dont get impatient.
<< <i>AND it could bring the fractional Buffalo back............ >>
Wow, I wonder whether that would help or hurt the 08 W. It's hard to imagine any future gold buff fractionals ending up with a lower mintage than the 08s now that everyone sees how well they've done.
<< <i>Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold. W mint marked silver eagles are under priced right now. So too are the 2011s silver eagle and the 2011Reverse proof. >>
FWIW prices on the 2008W ms $5 age have really come back in a bit over the last few months. At one point MCM was selling NGC70 examples for $360 over the summer, however I've seen at least a half dozen raw (and ngc69) coins close for under $250 in the last couple of months with one going for nearly $200. Prices on the 99W $10 age fluctuate considerably on eBay. Two pcgs 69s sold for $1450ish in November, but apparently the buyer didn't pay as the same seller re-sold them in December for $1350ish IIRC. An anacs 70 just sold for $7K though so you just never really know what someone will pay on these.
<< <i> Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold
Hi Eric - why do you think 2008-W MS70 $5 gold is undervalued? >>
I'm not Eric, but in my worthless opinion it's clear they're undervalued simply due to the shrinking premium they command versus bullion. I'm referring to 2008w $5 age's in general and not specifically to 70 coins. See my post a couple above for recent pricing information and then ask yourself if you think paying an additional 20% above bullion is worth it for what looks like a clear key in a series that is 25 years strong at this point .
<< <i>AND it could bring the fractional Buffalo back............ >>
Wow, I wonder whether that would help or hurt the 08 W. It's hard to imagine any future gold buff fractionals ending up with a lower mintage than the 08s now that everyone sees how well they've done. >>
I would imagine it would hurt the prices, the buffalo fractional will no longer be a one year set.
@ModernCoin .... Paying an additional 20% above bullion is worth it ...
2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70
That is why I'm questioning the logic.
I also agree they're a good play (myself bought a few 70s over past 6 month ) with 12K mintage and lowest for 1/10 oz gold but what is the potential from the current levels?
"2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70"
I ended up buying quite a few 08W $5 MS coins in 2011 and I paid about a $50 premium per coin above the "common" 06/07 $5's which trade close to melt + 10% or thereabouts from what I have seen. These coins lack DEMAND, which is why I was able to buy so many in 2011 without even trying. Still, for a $50 bill (excess to melt), I was OK taking a flyer on them (although I have mostly stopped buying them for now at least). A similar coin that lacks real strong DEMAND is the 08-W $50 MS Gold eagle. Hence, those coins languish as well. I recently passed on buying a (10) lot for about $45 coin more than common MS $50 gold eagles ... I simply had better places to put the funds at the time. Although, I did come close to pulling the trigger on them at that price. DEMAND, DEMAND, DEMAND.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
I am not saying the fractional buffs are coming back, I am pointing out if they bring any fractionals back thats the one that would sell the best and make the most sense from a marketing perspective.
The 2008w can be picked up for low cost and the coins grade very well and most of the raw ones floating around will make grade. In general the 2008w coins are good coins. Demand is soft but I dont see how it can get any lower and if they do get hit with a little demand they will do well. Dont think they will do as well as mint marked silver eagles however.
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members: jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
<< <i>"2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70"
I ended up buying quite a few 08W $5 MS coins in 2011 and I paid about a $50 premium per coin above the "common" 06/07 $5's which trade close to melt + 10% or thereabouts from what I have seen. These coins lack DEMAND, which is why I was able to buy so many in 2011 without even trying. Still, for a $50 bill (excess to melt), I was OK taking a flyer on them (although I have mostly stopped buying them for now at least). A similar coin that lacks real strong DEMAND is the 08-W $50 MS Gold eagle. Hence, those coins languish as well. I recently passed on buying a (10) lot for about $45 coin more than common MS $50 gold eagles ... I simply had better places to put the funds at the time. Although, I did come close to pulling the trigger on them at that price. DEMAND, DEMAND, DEMAND.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Your comments about the 2008 W MS AGE make one wonder about the future of the 2011 W. For a time the PCGS MS70 FS 2011 Ws were bringing moon money. The pop is 80. None have sold recently, despite one or two being offered for over $4K.
<< <i>2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70 >>
If you're paying full retail than I guess you're right, but you can find them for less if you look often and pay close attention to eBay. I don't say that as a dig, but rather simply pointing out that if you're willing to watch all the major coin dealer websites and scour eBay faithfully there are always deals to be found. At least it's that way for the raw and 69 coins anyway...
It only makes sense that there will always be opportunitites to buy low mintage moderns at great prices. They fade in and out of popularity (demand) because there are always new places to put your money with all the new issues. The fact that we all talk about these low mintage coins means (at least to me) that they are still popular in informed circles just temporarily overlooked.
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Happy New Year! I want to thank you and the others on this great thread. I have learned a lot from this thread and your book.
One of the problems with modern coins is that there are so many US Mint products, variations, and options. If you are a collector, investor, or novice, it is hard to know where to start. Your book has helped to point out to some of the modern coin rarities. This thread has also alerted readers to potential rarities.
In the past you have published a list of your top 10 items. This has been very helpful at understanding the market and spotting desirable items. As part of your continued research, I am wondering if you have considered creating portfolios or indices of top modern coins in TPG condition. Some portfolios/indices might be top 10 modern rarities, top 10 first spouses, top 10 burnished platinums, burnished gold eagles, etc. There is probably no end to the possible portfolios but keep them limited to a manageable handful. One could use the PCGS price guide and/or gray sheet to calculate price indices as these also indicate demand. This would be helpful for collectors/investors as well as provide some demand and liquidity for these modern day rarities if they could buy just the portfolio. You would update the portfolio on a regular scheduled basis.
Picking the coins and posting their prices would not be a problem but finding some kind of institution that wanted to make a market for such a thing would be hard. Help from some kind of institution or IRA outfit would be needed.
Maybe John has some input. I dont have a strong view one way or the other.
This is an interesting topic. I think that the number of new issues, in all variations, detract from future issues performances - ie the First Spouses. This would be a "dilutional effect".
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I am wondering if you have considered creating portfolios or indices of top modern coins in TPG condition. >>
Personally I think you need to be careful when considering TPG's as part of your stacking/collecting strategy. If you're putting coins away for the long term (20+ years), than I would steer clear of huge premiums on 70 coins or 70 coins with the FS/ER label. No one knows what the future holds and one day our beloved host or the guys ATS may damage their reputation somehow, or simply fall out of favor to a new player on the scene. Therefore paying huge premiums for a coin versus another that look identical to the naked eye based solely on the label doesn't make sense IMO.
Having said that though it's clear that today's collectors prefer, and pay more for PCGS70 "FS" coins so I buy them whenever the premiums to 69s or ATS make sense. I may leave a lot on the table by not buying 70 first strike coins exclusively, but personally I buy modern coins based on melt value so sometimes the premiums aren't worth it to me. To each their own though
True ModernCoin but you have to remember most collectors don't have access to coin shows all the time or even sometimes and therefore, making the comparison to talk about is impossible. I am not sure if any dealer offer approval service on high grade coins (the risk of damage is huge). So, the majority of collectors and investors have come to rely on the TPG's for the grade. I am one who doesn't have access to major coin shows and even minor shows are 200 miles away. I have two coin shops who inventory is 99% circulated coins and what they have for sale, they sell for around 150% of their real value.
Personally, I always thought the TPG's cause the price of coin prices to inflate as now you could have an investor just buy the slab rather than learning about grading the coin. In addition, if I remember right, there were just two uncirculated grades, 60 and 65 and the layman could actually learn the difference. Now, it is really tough, if not impossible fo rthe layman to know the grade (60 - 70) of every type of coin out there. You generally have to specialize on one series, and one series only.
I do have to laugh to myself every now and then as when I first started collecting coin in 1962, I would even think of buying a coin. to me, collecting meant finding them in circulation and putting them in my coin folders. Lucky for me, in 1966 - 1967, I started hording every soilver coin I could find in circulation and the majority of the money I earned when to buying these silver coins for face.
"Personally I think you need to be careful when considering TPG's as part of your stacking/collecting strategy"
Avoid unstable entry cost risk. The well worn phrase comes to mind "buy the coin not the holder." Look at ANAC they were the leading coin grader and now very few have any interest in them. If you are grading to resell in the short run and can make more money playing the label (ER,FS, MER, ETC) game what ever works for you is great. On the other hand I dont want to be the guy out paying high mark ups over the typical 70 grade coin for special labels and assume more entry cost risk. Its hard enough to predict the behavior of THE COIN much less the coin and the label taste of the public in 5 years. If you buy the best COIN and are picky about its QUALITY then its great to work toward getting it in a 70 holder or even buying the 70 holdered GREAT COIN as a finished product. If you purchase it as a finished product and pay a low mark up over the base 70 grade issue for a particular brand name label (ER, FS ETC) then you may have added to the potential of your purchase with out absorbing meaningful label cost risk. Avoid label cost risk if it is significant as a percentage of the initial purchase price.
YOU WILL NEVER GET HURT BUYING THE GOOD STUFF CHEAP. THE GOOD STUFF IS RARE MATERIAL IN EXTREMELY HIGH GRADE THAT IS IN THE LONG TERM PATH OF THE COLLECTOR HERD. THE FURTHER YOU DEVIATE FROM THE PURITY OF THIS CONCEPT THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO GET HURT!
<< YOU WILL NEVER GET HURT BUYING THE GOOD STUFF CHEAP. >>
For future appreciation, I consider the MS69-PR69 grades to be "good stuff", the 70's not so much. An 80% or higher premium for an MS70 or PR70 may be realistic for a $300 coin. But if that coin appreciates to $1250 in 69, will it make sense to pay an extra grand for a one-point bump in grade? Especially when the difference in the visible quality of the coin itself is negligible?
I think that for low-mintage moderns, MS69 and PR69 coins are likely to have higher percentage gains over time than MS70 and PR70 specimens, and with far less downside risk.
<< <i>For future appreciation, I consider the MS69-PR69 grades to be "good stuff", ... I think that for low-mintage moderns, MS69 and PR69 coins are likely to have higher percentage gains over time than MS70 and PR70 specimens, and with far less downside risk. >>
Having handled many more coins over the last year than prior years, I've finally come to the conclusion that people buying 69's for long term upside potential are right. I also believe people buying 70's are right too . Essentially I think it all boils down to the coin. I have seen a number of 69s that look like 70s to me and are head scratchers. I've also seen a few 70s that I feel should be 69s. In a nutshell I think buying 69s for the lowest premium possible (you can typically buy pcgs FS 69 from MCM for less than the mint price on coins like spouse gold) makes sense as long as the coin appears flawless to the naked eye. IMO I think that's one of the most important factors when buying modern coins as people down the line are going to want perfect coins since they'll be available.
I plan on selling some of my 69 and/or raw blemished coins at the FUN show this weekend to help put the above in action. Unfortunately that includes a pcgs mercanti 70 revPR that I bought off a seller w/ a no return policy that has TWO very obvious frost breaks. I'm under 40 and have great vision, yet this particular 70 looks worse than a 68 that I have. Meh, even graders get tired or make a mistake on occasion so I'm not complaining .
Modern Coins observations IMO are spot on. That why (also IMO) that "hyper" 70 grades and their prices are generally not worth it. How noticeable is a frost break, who is looking at it, who is grading it, when it is graded, how many have been graded that day, etc. tend to confound numbers and also the reproducibility of grading differences between 69s and 70s.
One side note question: if a coin is PERFECTLY preserved as it leaves the dies, is it not technically a "70"?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>One side note question: if a coin is PERFECTLY preserved as it leaves the dies, is it not technically a "70"? >>
and that is the kicker. Not every coin is "PERFECTLY preserved." In fact, I would guess about a third may be "PERFECTLY preserved" and that guess may be high. After looking at a bunch of the Army half dollar coins, I would say less than 1% were "PERFECTLY preserved" if even that. Everyone I saw had some issue and I doubt they would have even made an MS69.
As I see it, here are the valuation advantages of 69's compared to 70's:
1. 69's have further to go upwards before they become unaffordable to the vast majority of collectors. In other words, they have further to go, percentagewise, before bumping up against the "affordability ceiling" for most collectors.
2. Most 69's have upside grade potential. Resubmissions, even for less than perfect coins, have some chance of receiving a 70. Coins that are already 70's have, by definition, no upside grade potential.
3. 69's have little resubmission risk. A downgrade from a 69 to a 68 will have only a slight negative effect on the price of most moderns.
4. 69's are likely to undergo less buyer scrutiny upon resale, compared to 70's, since 69's are not expected to be perfect, and since there is less financial risk to the buyer in buying an "overgraded" 69.
5. 69's are protected from the risk that fashions may change - collectors in the future may not value the "perfect 70" grade as highly as they do now.
6. The "First Strike" premium is low to nonexistent on 69's, but can be very high for 70's. If future collectors assign less of a premium to the "First Strike" label, it will negatively impact 70's much more than 69's.
7. 69's are more liquid than 70's. For most modern issues, more 69's are bought and sold in a month than 70's, making for a more consistent price and greater ease of buying and selling. 69's are essentially commodity coins, which is a good thing when attempting to acquire or sell a sizable position.
<< <i>In a nutshell I think buying 69s for the lowest premium possible (you can typically buy pcgs FS 69 from MCM for less than the mint price on coins like spouse gold) makes sense as long as the coin appears flawless to the naked eye. >>
I completely agree. Do you live in the same town or just buy at coin shows they participate in? In a "nutshell," I believe the majority of collectors buy coins through the mail and if everyone started buying only after being able to examine the coin, the demand for coins would really drop along this their price. On the other hand, I suppose you could pay the 5% re-stocking fee to return it until you finally get one you think is worthy of keeping.
<< <i>Do you live in the same town or just buy at coin shows they participate in? In a "nutshell," I believe the majority of collectors buy coins through the mail and if everyone started buying only after being able to examine the coin, the demand for coins would really drop along this their price. On the other hand, I suppose you could pay the 5% re-stocking fee to return it until you finally get one you think is worthy of keeping. >>
I live in Central Florida so I'm able to attend multiple shows yearly and have quite a few local shops as well. I think paying the restocking fee may be worth it on occasion, but at the same time I try to buy stuff at the best rate possible (for a price close to or equal to what I could immediately sell it for) so typically I'll just resale the coin to someone else. To be honest I've had very good luck on raw coins and 69 coins over the last few years. My last order of raw coins (4 moh coins) from Apmex was disappointing as two out of the four coins had obvious blemishes, but it seems like most of the time I get lucky when buying 69s and raw coins. I guess it all works out to a numbers game in the end. Buy enough coins and eventually you'll be let down regardless of what you're buying...
"myth, The presales you mention are most likely non mint marked coins from a full Monster Box. Same occurred in 2011."
That is basically correct. I have been accepting orders for them over on the BST board and I see a board member is also on ebay pre-selling them as well
Wondercoin
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
When I posted an earlier post to Eric about porfolios with TPG graded modern rarities, I didn't recognize that I was opening a debate about TPG coins and the differing grades. I was just suggesting that if a portfolio of rare modern coins were going to be traded "sight unseen", there had to be an assumption about quality/condition of the coins and TPG was the only way to go, even with its limitations. The responses were very educational.
This is a great thread. We are within striking distance of 10,000 posts.
If any of you are at the FUN show today, I would highly advise you to stop by MCM's booth and meet Eric Jordan. I had the pleasure of speaking to him for 20 or 30 minutes yesterday about a number of subjects. Without a doubt he's "one of the good guys" in the hobby .
<< <i>When I posted an earlier post to Eric about porfolios with TPG graded modern rarities, I didn't recognize that I was opening a debate about TPG coins and the differing grades. I was just suggesting that if a portfolio of rare modern coins were going to be traded "sight unseen", there had to be an assumption about quality/condition of the coins and TPG was the only way to go, even with its limitations. The responses were very educational.
This is a great thread. We are within striking distance of 10,000 posts. >>
Unfortunately, some of us are stuck out here in Timbuctoo (or Timbuktu if you prefer the true spelling) and have to rely on the TPG's. I have bought ungraded coins through the mail and got burned several times on the grades. So, I will not do that anymore unless it is from a well-established forum member (who generally will provide very good photos of the coin(s).
My two local coin shops (within 50 miles) over grade and over price their coins to a point where I don’t even both with them anymore.
IMOP, I have never been burned on a slabbed coin from PCGS or NGC.
25th. anniversary sets were a big win for the collector. Commemorative Gold uncs & Clad halves are Winners. I don`t follow the proofs? All 4 First Spouse unc. Gold are threatening Julia Tyler for the uncirculated key. The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key. Silver proof sets & Uncirculated clad sets all not selling well. I hope we all loaded up this year. Good luck in 2012
25th. anniversary sets were a big win for the collector. Commemorative Gold uncs & Clad halves are Winners. I don`t follow the proofs? All 4 First Spouse unc. Gold are threatening Julia Tyler for the uncirculated key. The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key. Silver proof sets & Uncirculated clad sets all not selling well. I hope we all loaded up this year. Good luck in 2012
The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key
Forgive me if I got this wrong being that I don't follow these closely, but wouldn't the $25 2008-W be the key being that it has the lowest mintage as per Eric J's book?
What is the mintage so far on the 2011-W $50 AGE?
Positive transactions with Cladiator, Meltdown, ajbauman, LeeG, route66,DennisH,Hmann,FilamCoins,mgoodm3,terburn88,MrOrganic, weg,dcarr,guitarwes,Zubie,Barndog,wondercoin,braddick,etc...
<< <i>The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key
Forgive me if I got this wrong being that I don't follow these closely, but wouldn't the $25 2008-W be the key being that it has the lowest mintage as per Eric J's book?
What is the mintage so far on the 2011-W $50 AGE? >>
I`m pretty sure the 2007-W is the $25 1/2 ounce uncirculated Key with 11,455 pcs minted.
The 2008-W $10 with 8,883 pcs. minted is the $10 key and the lowest mintage for all AGE`s right now. However the 2011-W $50 unc. Gold is sitting at about 8,200 last I saw!
The current Heavyweight key is the 2008-W at 11,908. I believe they minted 12,000 (6K then another 6K) 2011-W $50, but there have been lots of returns for quality issues so they should end up key--but not by much.
<< The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key Forgive me if I got this wrong being that I don't follow these closely, but wouldn't the $25 2008-W be the key being that it has the lowest mintage as per Eric J's book? What is the mintage so far on the 2011-W $50 AGE? >> I`m pretty sure the 2007-W is the $25 1/2 ounce uncirculated Key with 11,455 pcs minted. The 2008-W $10 with 8,883 pcs. minted is the $10 key and the lowest mintage for all AGE`s right now. However the 2011-W $50 unc. Gold is sitting at about 8,200 last I saw!
Ah! I see it now. it appears to be a column alignment error in the book. Where can I find the latest mintage info on the 2011w?
Positive transactions with Cladiator, Meltdown, ajbauman, LeeG, route66,DennisH,Hmann,FilamCoins,mgoodm3,terburn88,MrOrganic, weg,dcarr,guitarwes,Zubie,Barndog,wondercoin,braddick,etc...
Comments
THANK YOU for answering my questions. I think it's incredible that you take time away from your day to provided myself and the other members of this foruum with your updated information. You have no idea the knowledge that I have gained from you and reading your book. I can't thank you enough for it. I just received another copy of your book from MCM with my latest order (thank you John Maben) and have passed it on to a family member. I am looking forward to your next one.
The 1999 W American Gold Eagle is a tricky one for me. I have tried many times to grab the $5 AGE MS-67 or less for under $550 (can be had for $700 +) with no luck and can't seem to touch the $10 AGE MS-67 which is my preference of the two for under $900 (can be had for $1000 +). I am just wondering if at those prices are they near the point where they may be close to hitting the value ceiling of each. Just as an example paying $950 for the $10 1999 W or the same $950 for a current Mint release FS or even $1000 for a handful of 2006-2008 W AGE fracs.
Enjoy the FUN show! And thank you again for all you insight...
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members:
jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
The 1999w $10 gold is a major wild card. It could stay quite flat for years or turn into the strongest modern gold eagle of all 4 denominations mint state or proof. Thats why I tell people that like moderns and can afford a 69 to go buy one for the collection but dont load up. Same is true for the $ 99w. I dont follow my own advice sometime because every time I see one thats nice I end up buying it. :-)
Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold. W mint marked silver eagles are under priced right now. So too are the 2011s silver eagle and the 2011Reverse proof.
Spread your self around best you can and dont get impatient.
Eric
Hi Eric - why do you think 2008-W MS70 $5 gold is undervalued?
<< <i>AND it could bring the fractional Buffalo back............ >>
Wow, I wonder whether that would help or hurt the 08 W. It's hard to imagine any future gold buff fractionals ending up with a lower mintage than the 08s now that everyone sees how well they've done.
<< <i>Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold. W mint marked silver eagles are under priced right now. So too are the 2011s silver eagle and the 2011Reverse proof. >>
FWIW prices on the 2008W ms $5 age have really come back in a bit over the last few months. At one point MCM was selling NGC70 examples for $360 over the summer, however I've seen at least a half dozen raw (and ngc69) coins close for under $250 in the last couple of months with one going for nearly $200. Prices on the 99W $10 age fluctuate considerably on eBay. Two pcgs 69s sold for $1450ish in November, but apparently the buyer didn't pay as the same seller re-sold them in December for $1350ish IIRC. An anacs 70 just sold for $7K though so you just never really know what someone will pay on these.
They have not issued even bullion platinum since 2008.....
If they did I would think they might put them up for sale for a while and then they would mint the coins after seeing how many sold.....
An interesting way of doing buisness.....
<< <i> Otherwise I would just go with the 2008-w MS $5 gold eagles as they look undervalued to me right now if you are most interested in gold
Hi Eric - why do you think 2008-W MS70 $5 gold is undervalued? >>
I'm not Eric, but in my worthless opinion it's clear they're undervalued simply due to the shrinking premium they command versus bullion. I'm referring to 2008w $5 age's in general and not specifically to 70 coins. See my post a couple above for recent pricing information and then ask yourself if you think paying an additional 20% above bullion is worth it for what looks like a clear key in a series that is 25 years strong at this point
<< <i>
<< <i>AND it could bring the fractional Buffalo back............ >>
Wow, I wonder whether that would help or hurt the 08 W. It's hard to imagine any future gold buff fractionals ending up with a lower mintage than the 08s now that everyone sees how well they've done. >>
I would imagine it would hurt the prices, the buffalo fractional will no longer be a one year set.
2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70
That is why I'm questioning the logic.
I also agree they're a good play (myself bought a few 70s over past 6 month ) with 12K mintage and lowest for 1/10 oz gold but what is the potential from the current levels?
I ended up buying quite a few 08W $5 MS coins in 2011 and I paid about a $50 premium per coin above the "common" 06/07 $5's which trade close to melt + 10% or thereabouts from what I have seen. These coins lack DEMAND, which is why I was able to buy so many in 2011 without even trying. Still, for a $50 bill (excess to melt), I was OK taking a flyer on them (although I have mostly stopped buying them for now at least). A similar coin that lacks real strong DEMAND is the 08-W $50 MS Gold eagle. Hence, those coins languish as well. I recently passed on buying a (10) lot for about $45 coin more than common MS $50 gold eagles ... I simply had better places to put the funds at the time. Although, I did come close to pulling the trigger on them at that price. DEMAND, DEMAND, DEMAND.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin
The 2008w can be picked up for low cost and the coins grade very well and most of the raw ones floating around will make grade. In general the 2008w coins are good coins. Demand is soft but I dont see how it can get any lower and if they do get hit with a little demand they will do well. Dont think they will do as well as mint marked silver eagles however.
I just sent you a PM.
Thanks
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members:
jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
<< <i>"2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70"
I ended up buying quite a few 08W $5 MS coins in 2011 and I paid about a $50 premium per coin above the "common" 06/07 $5's which trade close to melt + 10% or thereabouts from what I have seen. These coins lack DEMAND, which is why I was able to buy so many in 2011 without even trying. Still, for a $50 bill (excess to melt), I was OK taking a flyer on them (although I have mostly stopped buying them for now at least). A similar coin that lacks real strong DEMAND is the 08-W $50 MS Gold eagle. Hence, those coins languish as well. I recently passed on buying a (10) lot for about $45 coin more than common MS $50 gold eagles ... I simply had better places to put the funds at the time. Although, I did come close to pulling the trigger on them at that price. DEMAND, DEMAND, DEMAND.
As always, just my 2 cents.
Wondercoin >>
Your comments about the 2008 W MS AGE make one wonder about the future of the 2011 W. For a time the PCGS MS70 FS 2011 Ws were bringing moon money. The pop is 80. None have sold recently, despite one or two being offered for over $4K.
<< <i>2008W $5 are not nearly close to 20% over bullion - they're at least 2x bullion for raw and roughly 3x for MS70 >>
If you're paying full retail than I guess you're right, but you can find them for less if you look often and pay close attention to eBay. I don't say that as a dig, but rather simply pointing out that if you're willing to watch all the major coin dealer websites and scour eBay faithfully there are always deals to be found. At least it's that way for the raw and 69 coins anyway...
Here are a couple from the past 10 days:
PCGS MS69 with OGP for $238!
OR:
Here's a raw one for $226!
<< <i>That is why I'm questioning the logic. >>
Never question my logic as it's always perfect... Just kidd'n of course
<< <i>DEMAND, DEMAND, DEMAND. >>
Thanks for sharing your thoughts Mitch. I certainly appreciate hearing from people who have been at this longer and know much more than myself
John
John Maben
Pegasus Coin and Jewelry (Brick and Mortar)
ANA LM, PNG, APMD, FUN, Etc
800-381-2646
Happy New Year! I want to thank you and the others on this great thread. I have learned a lot from this thread and your book.
One of the problems with modern coins is that there are so many US Mint products, variations, and options. If you are a collector, investor, or novice, it is hard to know where to start. Your book has helped to point out to some of the modern coin rarities. This thread has also alerted readers to potential rarities.
In the past you have published a list of your top 10 items. This has been very helpful at understanding the market and spotting desirable items. As part of your continued research, I am wondering if you have considered creating portfolios or indices of top modern coins in TPG condition. Some portfolios/indices might be top 10 modern rarities, top 10 first spouses, top 10 burnished platinums, burnished gold eagles, etc. There is probably no end to the possible portfolios but keep them limited to a manageable handful. One could use the PCGS price guide and/or gray sheet to calculate price indices as these also indicate demand. This would be helpful for collectors/investors as well as provide some demand and liquidity for these modern day rarities if they could buy just the portfolio. You would update the portfolio on a regular scheduled basis.
Maybe John has some input. I dont have a strong view one way or the other.
Eric
This would be a "dilutional effect".
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>I am wondering if you have considered creating portfolios or indices of top modern coins in TPG condition. >>
Personally I think you need to be careful when considering TPG's as part of your stacking/collecting strategy. If you're putting coins away for the long term (20+ years), than I would steer clear of huge premiums on 70 coins or 70 coins with the FS/ER label. No one knows what the future holds and one day our beloved host or the guys ATS may damage their reputation somehow, or simply fall out of favor to a new player on the scene. Therefore paying huge premiums for a coin versus another that look identical to the naked eye based solely on the label doesn't make sense IMO.
Having said that though it's clear that today's collectors prefer, and pay more for PCGS70 "FS" coins so I buy them whenever the premiums to 69s or ATS make sense. I may leave a lot on the table by not buying 70 first strike coins exclusively, but personally I buy modern coins based on melt value so sometimes the premiums aren't worth it to me. To each their own though
Personally, I always thought the TPG's cause the price of coin prices to inflate as now you could have an investor just buy the slab rather than learning about grading the coin. In addition, if I remember right, there were just two uncirculated grades, 60 and 65 and the layman could actually learn the difference. Now, it is really tough, if not impossible fo rthe layman to know the grade (60 - 70) of every type of coin out there. You generally have to specialize on one series, and one series only.
I do have to laugh to myself every now and then as when I first started collecting coin in 1962, I would even think of buying a coin. to me, collecting meant finding them in circulation and putting them in my coin folders. Lucky for me, in 1966 - 1967, I started hording every soilver coin I could find in circulation and the majority of the money I earned when to buying these silver coins for face.
Avoid unstable entry cost risk. The well worn phrase comes to mind "buy the coin not the holder." Look at ANAC they were the leading coin grader and now very few have any interest in them. If you are grading to resell in the short run and can make more money playing the label (ER,FS, MER, ETC) game what ever works for you is great. On the other hand I dont want to be the guy out paying high mark ups over the typical 70 grade coin for special labels and assume more entry cost risk. Its hard enough to predict the behavior of THE COIN much less the coin and the label taste of the public in 5 years. If you buy the best COIN and are picky about its QUALITY then its great to work toward getting it in a 70 holder or even buying the 70 holdered GREAT COIN as a finished product. If you purchase it as a finished product and pay a low mark up over the base 70 grade issue for a particular brand name label (ER, FS ETC) then you may have added to the potential of your purchase with out absorbing meaningful label cost risk. Avoid label cost risk if it is significant as a percentage of the initial purchase price.
YOU WILL NEVER GET HURT BUYING THE GOOD STUFF CHEAP. THE GOOD STUFF IS RARE MATERIAL IN EXTREMELY HIGH GRADE THAT IS IN THE LONG TERM PATH OF THE COLLECTOR HERD. THE FURTHER YOU DEVIATE FROM THE PURITY OF THIS CONCEPT THE MORE LIKELY YOU ARE TO GET HURT!
For future appreciation, I consider the MS69-PR69 grades to be "good stuff", the 70's not so much. An 80% or higher premium for an MS70 or PR70 may be realistic for a $300 coin. But if that coin appreciates to $1250 in 69, will it make sense to pay an extra grand for a one-point bump in grade? Especially when the difference in the visible quality of the coin itself is negligible?
I think that for low-mintage moderns, MS69 and PR69 coins are likely to have higher percentage gains over time than MS70 and PR70 specimens, and with far less downside risk.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>For future appreciation, I consider the MS69-PR69 grades to be "good stuff", ... I think that for low-mintage moderns, MS69 and PR69 coins are likely to have higher percentage gains over time than MS70 and PR70 specimens, and with far less downside risk. >>
Having handled many more coins over the last year than prior years, I've finally come to the conclusion that people buying 69's for long term upside potential are right. I also believe people buying 70's are right too
I plan on selling some of my 69 and/or raw blemished coins at the FUN show this weekend to help put the above in action. Unfortunately that includes a pcgs mercanti 70 revPR that I bought off a seller w/ a no return policy that has TWO very obvious frost breaks. I'm under 40 and have great vision, yet this particular 70 looks worse than a 68 that I have. Meh, even graders get tired or make a mistake on occasion so I'm not complaining
One side note question: if a coin is PERFECTLY preserved as it leaves the dies, is it not technically a "70"?
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>One side note question: if a coin is PERFECTLY preserved as it leaves the dies, is it not technically a "70"? >>
and that is the kicker. Not every coin is "PERFECTLY preserved." In fact, I would guess about a third may be "PERFECTLY preserved" and that guess may be high. After looking at a bunch of the Army half dollar coins, I would say less than 1% were "PERFECTLY preserved" if even that. Everyone I saw had some issue and I doubt they would have even made an MS69.
1. 69's have further to go upwards before they become unaffordable to the vast majority of collectors. In other words, they have further to go, percentagewise, before bumping up against the "affordability ceiling" for most collectors.
2. Most 69's have upside grade potential. Resubmissions, even for less than perfect coins, have some chance of receiving a 70. Coins that are already 70's have, by definition, no upside grade potential.
3. 69's have little resubmission risk. A downgrade from a 69 to a 68 will have only a slight negative effect on the price of most moderns.
4. 69's are likely to undergo less buyer scrutiny upon resale, compared to 70's, since 69's are not expected to be perfect, and since there is less financial risk to the buyer in buying an "overgraded" 69.
5. 69's are protected from the risk that fashions may change - collectors in the future may not value the "perfect 70" grade as highly as they do now.
6. The "First Strike" premium is low to nonexistent on 69's, but can be very high for 70's. If future collectors assign less of a premium to the "First Strike" label, it will negatively impact 70's much more than 69's.
7. 69's are more liquid than 70's. For most modern issues, more 69's are bought and sold in a month than 70's, making for a more consistent price and greater ease of buying and selling. 69's are essentially commodity coins, which is a good thing when attempting to acquire or sell a sizable position.
Did I miss anything?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>In a nutshell I think buying 69s for the lowest premium possible (you can typically buy pcgs FS 69 from MCM for less than the mint price on coins like spouse gold) makes sense as long as the coin appears flawless to the naked eye. >>
I completely agree. Do you live in the same town or just buy at coin shows they participate in? In a "nutshell," I believe the majority of collectors buy coins through the mail and if everyone started buying only after being able to examine the coin, the demand for coins would really drop along this their price. On the other hand, I suppose you could pay the 5% re-stocking fee to return it until you finally get one you think is worthy of keeping.
<< <i>Do you live in the same town or just buy at coin shows they participate in? In a "nutshell," I believe the majority of collectors buy coins through the mail and if everyone started buying only after being able to examine the coin, the demand for coins would really drop along this their price. On the other hand, I suppose you could pay the 5% re-stocking fee to return it until you finally get one you think is worthy of keeping. >>
I live in Central Florida so I'm able to attend multiple shows yearly and have quite a few local shops as well. I think paying the restocking fee may be worth it on occasion, but at the same time I try to buy stuff at the best rate possible (for a price close to or equal to what I could immediately sell it for) so typically I'll just resale the coin to someone else. To be honest I've had very good luck on raw coins and 69 coins over the last few years. My last order of raw coins (4 moh coins) from Apmex was disappointing as two out of the four coins had obvious blemishes, but it seems like most of the time I get lucky when buying 69s and raw coins. I guess it all works out to a numbers game in the end. Buy enough coins and eventually you'll be let down regardless of what you're buying...
The presales you mention are most likely non mint marked coins from a full Monster Box. Same occurred in 2011.
That is basically correct. I have been accepting orders for them over on the BST board and I see a board member is also on ebay pre-selling them as well
Wondercoin
This is a great thread. We are within striking distance of 10,000 posts.
<< <i>When I posted an earlier post to Eric about porfolios with TPG graded modern rarities, I didn't recognize that I was opening a debate about TPG coins and the differing grades. I was just suggesting that if a portfolio of rare modern coins were going to be traded "sight unseen", there had to be an assumption about quality/condition of the coins and TPG was the only way to go, even with its limitations. The responses were very educational.
This is a great thread. We are within striking distance of 10,000 posts.
Unfortunately, some of us are stuck out here in Timbuctoo (or Timbuktu if you prefer the true spelling) and have to rely on the TPG's. I have bought ungraded coins through the mail and got burned several times on the grades. So, I will not do that anymore unless it is from a well-established forum member (who generally will provide very good photos of the coin(s).
My two local coin shops (within 50 miles) over grade and over price their coins to a point where I don’t even both with them anymore.
IMOP, I have never been burned on a slabbed coin from PCGS or NGC.
25th. anniversary sets were a big win for the collector.
Commemorative Gold uncs & Clad halves are Winners. I don`t follow the proofs?
All 4 First Spouse unc. Gold are threatening Julia Tyler for the uncirculated key.
The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key.
Silver proof sets & Uncirculated clad sets all not selling well.
I hope we all loaded up this year. Good luck in 2012
25th. anniversary sets were a big win for the collector.
Commemorative Gold uncs & Clad halves are Winners. I don`t follow the proofs?
All 4 First Spouse unc. Gold are threatening Julia Tyler for the uncirculated key.
The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key.
Silver proof sets & Uncirculated clad sets all not selling well.
I hope we all loaded up this year. Good luck in 2012
Forgive me if I got this wrong being that I don't follow these closely, but wouldn't the $25 2008-W
be the key being that it has the lowest mintage as per Eric J's book?
What is the mintage so far on the 2011-W $50 AGE?
Don't forget about 2010 TATBs spilled over into 2011
In some way 2011 reminds me of 2008 - a lot of offerings across different product lines competing for collector $$$
The net result - low sales/mintage numbers and as the result a lot of winners in the long term
<< <i>The 2011-W AGE Gold $50 unc. is theatening to unseat the $10 2008-W AGE as key
Forgive me if I got this wrong being that I don't follow these closely, but wouldn't the $25 2008-W
be the key being that it has the lowest mintage as per Eric J's book?
What is the mintage so far on the 2011-W $50 AGE? >>
I`m pretty sure the 2007-W is the $25 1/2 ounce uncirculated Key with 11,455 pcs minted.
The 2008-W $10 with 8,883 pcs. minted is the $10 key and the lowest mintage for all AGE`s right now.
However the 2011-W $50 unc. Gold is sitting at about 8,200 last I saw!
Ah! I see it now. it appears to be a column alignment error in the book. Where can I find the latest mintage info on the 2011w?
Thanks for the reply.