<< <i>Just checked Eric's book, and he says the 1999-W $10 AGE has the lowest mintage (<6000). Why is everybody saying the 2008-W is lowest at 8883?
Am I confused?
Mark >>
They're talking standard issue AGE. The 1999-W is an error/variety coin. Keys are also talked about in terms of denomination, like the 2008-W $50 and the 2011-W $50. It can get confusing.
Whether or not the 2011 $50 comes in under the 2008 $10, I'm guessing the latter will hold up price-wise much better. These big coins just aren't as desirable IMO, and never will be. I also really think the collector base has been gutted, and that we'll probably see other issues come in under 10,000.
<< <i>If the '11-W $50 AGE becomes the new key to the gold eagles, how much of a price drop will happen to the '08-W $10 AGE? >>
None, most likely. Due to affordability issues, more people collect quarter-ounce Gold Eagles than full-ounce ones. I don't see demand dropping for the $10 coin just because a $50 coin comes in with a slightly lower mintage.
We have already established the Mint may continue selling the 11-W $50 gold existing stock up until the time it starts selling the 12-W $50. Do we have the release date on that one yet from the Mint?
Wondercoin
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Can someone tell me how the 2010 gold proof set compares? Are any of them semi-keys or are they just as common as the rest of the series?
The 2010-W Proof fractional AGEs appear to be about average mintages.
We have already established the Mint may continue selling the 11-W $50 gold existing stock up until the time it starts selling the 12-W $50. Do we have the release date on that one yet from the Mint?
No release date yet.
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Eric, do you think the numbers for all of the returns of the Army and MOH commemoratives are in? The numbers haven't changed in 4 weeks. I thought for sure we'd see some returns at the end.
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It is typical to see a 100-200 coin drop in final final numbers relative to the last weekly sales report but this coin was hit late by a hand full of people that were paying attention so the "drop" may not show up at all. It very hard to say on this one.
"The US Mint plans to offer a 2012-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle. This will be in addition to the collectible uncirculated version with the “W” mint mark."
"The US Mint is evaluating the optimum way to bring back American Platinum Eagle bullion coins in 2012. The bullion versions of the coin have not been minted or issued since 2008."
"The US Mint plans to offer a 2012-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle. This will be in addition to the collectible uncirculated version with the “W” mint mark."
"The US Mint is evaluating the optimum way to bring back American Platinum Eagle bullion coins in 2012. The bullion versions of the coin have not been minted or issued since 2008." >>
These are the regular bullion, eagle-over-sun platinum eagles, right?
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case. >>
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage.
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The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case. >>
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage. >>
If anything, I believe it will increase the price of the 2011-S as it will increase the demand for the coin. Case in point. Did the 2011 RP cause a major drop in the price of the 2006 RP? No. In fact, I believe it stired more interest on the 20th RP coin and the prices increased. The 2012-S will have a huge mintage compared to the 2011-S and if the mint continues with the "S" coin (which I believe they will), the 2011-S will be the key to the "S" series.
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case. >>
I don't think that is likely at all. Why would the minting of a 2012-s have any negative effect on the 2011-s? If anything it could signal the start of a new collector set (s marked ASE) and be the key. Also, regular issue w mints post 20th anniversary set were produced in much higher quantities then the original issue.
I do hope they go forward with striking W and S silver eagles. Puts lots of attention on this cheap series and if you look at the current numbers the base line annual W demand for unc silver eagles is around 250,000-300,000 coins. So if you assume that the demand is split then its a 150,000 mintage W and S.
Either way the 2011s is going to be OK. I would go find something else good to worry about..... World Peace or whatever..
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case. >>
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage. >>
If anything, I believe it will increase the price of the 2011-S as it will increase the demand for the coin. Case in point. Did the 2011 RP cause a major drop in the price of the 2006 RP? No. In fact, I believe it stired more interest on the 20th RP coin and the prices increased. The 2012-S will have a huge mintage compared to the 2011-S and if the mint continues with the "S" coin (which I believe they will), the 2011-S will be the key to the "S" series. >>
The key is how much larger will the mintage of the subsequent S coins be. Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? The mintage of the 2008 uncirculated silver eagles is 533,757. The mintage so far of the 2011 is 333,465 and that's only because the sale of the 25th Anniversary sets tacked on an additional 100,000. I'm not so sure we will see a huge differential between the 2011-S and future S coins.
<< <i>Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? >>
Now why would you think the demand would be split in two? That doesn't make any sence at all. At a minimum, the demand would be equal. Do you really think a collector will only collect one mint mark or try to collect the whole series. I suppose their may be a year collector like those who filled in those old cent (penny) folders but for the most part, everyone I knew who collect Cent coins picked the whole series folder (P, D & S coins). Peole will be forking over twice the money in order to get both coins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to be the Mint come out with 3 or 4 coins sets each year (PR, Unc-W & Unc-S or PR, Unc-bullion, Unc-W & Unc-S, repectively)
<< <i>Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? >>
Now why would you think the demand would be split in two? That doesn't make any sence at all. At a minimum, the demand would be equal. Do you really think a collector will only collect one mint mark or try to collect the whole series. I suppose their may be a year collector like those who filled in those old cent (penny) folders but for the most part, everyone I knew who collect Cent coins picked the whole series folder (P, D & S coins). Peole will be forking over twice the money in order to get both coins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to be the Mint come out with 3 or 4 coins sets each year (PR, Unc-W & Unc-S or PR, Unc-bullion, Unc-W & Unc-S, repectively) >>
The economy still sucks and, if PM prices rebound as I expect they will, people will be more selective in what they buy.
@Eric (or Mitch, Mr. Maben, etc. ) -- What do you think the chances are that the 2011W $50 gold eagle will displace the '08W $10 AGE, and if it doesn't do you see the coin appreciating at all. I shared my thoughts on it in this thread (bottom of the first page), but I would like to know what the more experienced folks think about the coin right now. Clearly the number one headwind for the coin is the fact it's an ounce of gold. However having said that I think being the king of the ASE is important enough that the coin will appreciate on some level. The fact it's been on backorder for days now and Apmex still has 25 raw coins in stock (just as they did several days ago) indicates people aren't exactly jumping at the chance to gamble on the coin. Thoughts???
Moderncoin ... As I have said here many times, the "#1 headwind" with a modern coin is quite often the issue of DEMAND... far greater an issue than whether a coin is a 1 oz. coin or a 1/4 oz. gold coin. The lack of strong demand is why 06-W Burnished Platinum with incredibly tiny mintages still languishes 5 years later. It is why some modern gold commems have done quite well over the years while some coins with similar mintages have done so-so or even relatively poorly. It is why an 06-W $25 MS Gold Eagle is worth close $1,500-$1,750+ today with a half oz. of gold in it and a mintage of 15,164, while the 08-W $50 MS Gold Eagle with its 11,908 mintage and a full oz. of gold is worth about $25-$50 more than a "beat up" raw generic $50 Gold Eagle. So, it appears the issue down the road will be to what extent a roughly 8,500-9,500 mintage $50 MS gold eagle (best scenario for the 11-W) will garner strong demand when even the 06-W reverse proof 10,000 mintage $50 (type) coin is only worth about 30% more than what these 11-W $50's are selling for right now. Not to mention that the 08-W $50 MS Gold Eagle with only about a 30% higher mintage than 11-W is worth virtually no premium at all right now. Before I can answer for myself whether the demand will come for the 11-W $50 making it a very good coin to buy right now, I would first need to answer why the 10,000 mintage 06-W Reverse Proof Gold $50 (type) coin is only worth about 30% more than what the Mint is selling these 11-W coins right now? Why is there no serious demand for a 10,000 mintage gold type coin (as of yet) and can a 9,000 mintage coin as part of a continuous date set perform significantly better than the 10,000 mintage type coin in the same $50 gold area? I am frankly at a loss as to why the Reverse Proof $50 gold Eagle type coin is selling ($) where it is selling. I am also surprised the 08-W $50 MS gold eagle is selling where it is at. I bought one the other day for about $10-$15 more than where a generic $50 gold eagle sells for (less than $1,700). So, Moderncoin (or anyone else) ... can you please tell me why the 06-W Reverse proof gold eagle with its 10,000 mintage sells for only about 30% more than the US Mint's asking price for these burnished $50 gold eagles five years after release? And, what significance that reality has on the potential for strong upward movement of let's say a roughly (hypothetical) 9,000 mintage burnished gold $50 Eagle that is not a gold type coin?
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents.
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This probably sounds silly, but there may be a 10,000 psychological barrier with these moderns. If the mint had done 9990 reverse proof gold coins instead of 10,000 the fact that the mintage starts with a 9 instead of a 10 could be enough to put them in the modern rare category.'
10,000 coins in modern gold is now almost high mintage.
If the 1 ounce ends in the high 8000's then that is a lot lower than 10,000. You have to ask though what is the long-term price of gold going to be here. If gold somehow keeps rising and ends this year at $1700 an ounce then the 2012 1 ounce may sell less than the 2011. This is why some are probably not buying in to this being the final king.
If I was a collector of these coins and was just starting then this is the best coin to start with. At 8k plus mintage you have little downside, and if the future coin mintages drop lower you can buy those and still have these making money.
Of coarse the mint could also just be shifting inventory right now and they have another 6k to sell of these. We won't know until the backorders start shipping. For that APMEX inventory i doubt anyone is brave enough today to guess which way the mint goes. At least with a mint backorder you can return the coin if they have a lot more inventory.
I can't say I am surprised they are issuing a 2012-S Unc SAE. They saw there is interest in the market place for these, so they are being smart buisnessman.
The bullion platinum coins could be an interesting issue.....
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Demand obviously drives pricing in everything we buy... I have a few vintage collectibles that are prototypes and 1 of 1 known, but there are only a handful of people who even care about them so they're not worth much. That's essentially what I'm trying to guesstimate now is demand for this coin in the near and medium term. No one here has a crystal ball, but I've found that people who have been watching coins like these for much longer than I have always have a perspective worth listening to and considering so that's why I'm seeking input .
<< <i> I am frankly at a loss as to why the Reverse Proof $50 gold Eagle type coin is selling ($) where it is selling. I am also surprised the 08-W $50 MS gold eagle is selling where it is at. >>
The revPr AGE does only sell for a surprisingly modest premium considering the mintage and how gorgeous it is (though the last two pcgs 70s on eBay did hit $3300 & $3500). It definitely is a head scratcher on some level. When I stated reasons to buy and not to buy this coin in that other thread I did stress the fact that the '08W $50 age's lack of a premium doesn't bode well for this coin. I guess in the end I'm simply wondering out loud just how significant it is for this coin to be the king of the AGEs, and/or whether or not that will even matter. Personally I'm of the opinion that it will be worth a bit more if it does come in under the '08W $10. Either way it seems to me paying an additional 7% over what a standard 1oz AGE sells for is a smart play for stackers.
The performance of the gold reverse proof is really confusing in light of how well the 06 silver reverse proof is doing. But maybe it has to do with it being above the threshold of $1500 that Eric mentions, and so the level of demand is diminished.
<< <i> I am frankly at a loss as to why the Reverse Proof $50 gold Eagle type coin is selling ($) where it is selling. I am also surprised the 08-W $50 MS gold eagle is selling where it is at. >>
The revPr AGE does only sell for a surprisingly modest premium considering the mintage and how gorgeous it is (though the last two pcgs 70s on eBay did hit $3300 & $3500). It definitely is a head scratcher on some level. When I stated reasons to buy and not to buy this coin in that other thread I did stress the fact that the '08W $50 age's lack of a premium doesn't bode well for this coin. I guess in the end I'm simply wondering out loud just how significant it is for this coin to be the king of the AGEs, and/or whether or not that will even matter. Personally I'm of the opinion that it will be worth a bit more if it does come in under the '08W $10. Either way it seems to me paying an additional 7% over what a standard 1oz AGE sells for is a smart play for stackers.
I think when you look at the valuations of certain moderns you have to also consider the general economy. Many are lowering their budgets for collector coins whereas plain bullion probably has more international interests. This might be an explanation of what we are seeing.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
I think when you look at the valuations of certain moderns you have to also consider the general economy. Many are lowering their budgets for collector coins whereas plain bullion probably has more international interests. This might be an explanation of what we are seeing. >>
NPD1078
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Even if it's not Eliza I think at least one or more of the 2011 coins will take out Julia. If I held any pcgs70 Julia coins I would be selling now... Considering how spouse interest has waned, it would not surprise me to see the 2011's end around 2800-3K each and the 2012's around 2500ea or possibly even lower.
In the meantime I think savvy stackers will do well scooping up certain non-2007 FS coins for melt based pricing. Many of the formerly better pieces have declined in value and if that trend continues collectors during 2012 it may be easy for people to pick up many of the 2009/2010 coins that they missed for no more of a premium than an AGE.
Over the next few years, I think the Liberty subset will fare better than the remaining spouses. It's now a complete and closed series of 4 attractive and historical designs, with fewer than 4000 complete sets possible in uncirculated and fewer than 7000 possible in proof.
In the end it does not matter. We will not know any more than we do now on this coin until this time next year. Its one more already high dollar modern with a moderate mintage with a 2012W that it will have to compete with coming right down behind it.
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue.
<< <i>In the end it does not matter. We will not know any more than we do now on this coin until this time next year. Its one more already high dollar modern with a moderate mintage with a 2012W that it will have to compete with coming right down behind it.
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue. >>
Hell yes, that is exactly the kind of info I needed, thank you.
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<< <i>In the end it does not matter. We will not know any more than we do now on this coin until this time next year. Its one more already high dollar modern with a moderate mintage with a 2012W that it will have to compete with coming right down behind it.
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue. >>
Thanks Eric.
If a 2012 W is announced, the time of announcement sounds like a great time to sell this one.
If no 2012 W is minted, this may well be a nice hold for a while.
Pulled from the 12s silver eagle thread.............
Guys a few points if you don't mind.
1. The mint says that they want to set the 2012s silver eagle mintage limit at 200,000 special sets with a per household max. 2. They will sell out at the $125-150 price range they are looking at. 3. The W mint marked issues have been going through a classic inaugural spike mintage drop since 2006w (go look at page 50 of our first book) This tends to bottom out around 30% of peak so without split demand the coin is about a 210,000 mintage coin. Now if you assume that the 12s, 13s etc are going to cannibalize sales and use a .6 multiplier which is typical then the 13w, 14w etc are likely to stay above 125,000 going forward.
So the bottom line in my view is the 2012S etc is likley going to be a 200,000 mintage coin for the next few years. When the 12S sells out violently and it will, the heat will spill over to the 12W to some extent and I think it will sell 200,000+ coins too. If the price of silver does not go nuts then its likely over an extended period of time to see all the mint marked silver eagles stay over the 125,000 mark.
As you guys know it is my view that the silver eagle is the modern Morgan and that mint marked silver eagles are the modern "CC". There are many structural reasons for this that I will not go over again here but I will point out one thing. The 1880, 1881 and 1885 CC Morgans with their over 130,000 mint state surviving populations are not the king of the CC set and certainly not the king of the broader Morgan series but they all trade at $500 to $600 each at the center of their mint state grading bell line curve. It will take time but I have no reason to believe that these coins will not trade in that range at the time of series maturity (who knows how long that is). Popularity is important. Ask your self what a 100,000 mintage silver proof 50 state quarter set would sell for. These coins are like that and the Mint is about to emphasize the silver eagles in their marketing efforts.
Big populations are a wonderful thing because they can contribute to collector base development. At the same time a staggered mintage table produces numismatic flare that can help promote collector base formation too. If the Mint cranks through mint marked coins and the mintages stay up over 150,000 coins at each branch mint then its likely to help the 25 anniversary set just as the 25th set helped the MUCH more common 20th set and the coin could be driven into the $500+ MS69 price range over the next 10 years or less. If the branch Mint issues sales sag into the 100,000 to 125,000 range then the 11s will not preform as well as it would have without low mintage siblings.
I dont think the 11s is going to be any better coin than the 11P reverse proof but at the same time its not obvious to me at this point that this new silver dollar marketing focus is going to hurt the 25th set.
May I ask this esteemed audience a question why PCGS does not have price guide for 2004-W and 2005-W PR70DC $25 Platinum Liberties?
Have these coins recently traded ?
I know they are the keys to the quarter proof plats but what are their current prices ?
I see APMEX lists 2005-W PCGS PR70DC (cert# 20587789) at $1900 and 2004-W PCGS PR70DC (cert# 18545069) at $3000 but how close are these prices to reality?
Before everybody goes rah rah, sis-boom-bah over eagles with 100k or 200k mintages, I think one example needs to be though of:
Not to be a party-pooper, but I see the 97 SMS nickel as being a coin left out of the discussion as its performance, or lack of it is rather germaine IMO: 25k mintage=KING OF THE NICKELS, right? LOL!!
Not sure how it fits with the models for investment performance, what say you [other] Eric?
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Before everybody goes rah rah, sis-boom-bah over eagles with 100k or 200k mintages, I think one example needs to be though of:
Not to be a party-pooper, but I see the 97 SMS nickel as being a coin left out of the discussion as its performance, or lack of it is rather germaine IMO: 25k mintage=KING OF THE NICKELS, right? LOL!!
Not sure how it fits with the models for investment performance, what say you [other] Eric? >>
Just one man's opinion, but I think the ASE collector base is broader than that of Jefferson 5c and, therefore, not "germaine". I've heard folks say the '94 & '97 SMS Jeffersons, the '96-W Roosevelt and the '98-S JFK commem are more like "novelty" pieces. I've owned all 4 of them at one time and still got a '96-W dime. Kings, queens or otherwise, it seems to me, there's just not much interest/demand.
Comments
Am I confused?
Mark
<< <i>Just checked Eric's book, and he says the 1999-W $10 AGE has the lowest mintage (<6000). Why is everybody saying the 2008-W is lowest at 8883?
Am I confused?
Mark >>
They're talking standard issue AGE. The 1999-W is an error/variety coin. Keys are also talked about in terms of denomination, like the 2008-W $50 and the 2011-W $50. It can get confusing.
<< <i>If the '11-W $50 AGE becomes the new key to the gold eagles, how much of a price drop will happen to the '08-W $10 AGE? >>
None, most likely. Due to affordability issues, more people collect quarter-ounce Gold Eagles than full-ounce ones. I don't see demand dropping for the $10 coin just because a $50 coin comes in with a slightly lower mintage.
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Wondercoin
Cashback from Mr. Rebates
The 2010-W Proof fractional AGEs appear to be about average mintages.
We have already established the Mint may continue selling the 11-W $50 gold existing stock up until the time it starts selling the 12-W $50. Do we have the release date on that one yet from the Mint?
No release date yet.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>If the '11-W $50 AGE becomes the new key to the gold eagles, how much of a price drop will happen to the '08-W $10 AGE? >>
They will drop like a rock. If you like I'll take as many as you have off your hands for spot + $49.99.:
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Eric
"The US Mint plans to offer a 2012-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle. This will be in addition to the collectible uncirculated version with the “W” mint mark."
"The US Mint is evaluating the optimum way to bring back American Platinum Eagle bullion coins in 2012. The bullion versions of the coin have not been minted or issued since 2008."
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case.
<< <i>Check this out (from Mint News Blog):
"The US Mint plans to offer a 2012-S Uncirculated Silver Eagle. This will be in addition to the collectible uncirculated version with the “W” mint mark."
"The US Mint is evaluating the optimum way to bring back American Platinum Eagle bullion coins in 2012. The bullion versions of the coin have not been minted or issued since 2008." >>
These are the regular bullion, eagle-over-sun platinum eagles, right?
<< <i>What's that crashing sound I hear?
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case.
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage.
<< <i>
<< <i>What's that crashing sound I hear?
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case.
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage. >>
If anything, I believe it will increase the price of the 2011-S as it will increase the demand for the coin. Case in point. Did the 2011 RP cause a major drop in the price of the 2006 RP? No. In fact, I believe it stired more interest on the 20th RP coin and the prices increased. The 2012-S will have a huge mintage compared to the 2011-S and if the mint continues with the "S" coin (which I believe they will), the 2011-S will be the key to the "S" series.
<< <i>What's that crashing sound I hear?
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case.
I don't think that is likely at all. Why would the minting of a 2012-s have any negative effect on the 2011-s? If anything it could signal the start of a new collector set (s marked ASE) and be the key. Also, regular issue w mints post 20th anniversary set were produced in much higher quantities then the original issue.
Either way the 2011s is going to be OK. I would go find something else good to worry about..... World Peace or whatever..
<< <i>
<< <i>
<< <i>What's that crashing sound I hear?
The price of the 2011-s falling back to earth or "issue price" in this case.
I would think not. Not by a long shot. The 2012 S will have a mintage many times the 2011 S. If there is a reaction and the 2011 S drops in price I'll be selling everything I can to buy them that is for sure. Having a continuing mintage of those should help in the long run in my opinion. The only thing is that by offering both the S and W then your statement may be spot on. I don't think that impact will happen until the sales numbers would indicate a possible lower mintage. >>
If anything, I believe it will increase the price of the 2011-S as it will increase the demand for the coin. Case in point. Did the 2011 RP cause a major drop in the price of the 2006 RP? No. In fact, I believe it stired more interest on the 20th RP coin and the prices increased. The 2012-S will have a huge mintage compared to the 2011-S and if the mint continues with the "S" coin (which I believe they will), the 2011-S will be the key to the "S" series. >>
The key is how much larger will the mintage of the subsequent S coins be. Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? The mintage of the 2008 uncirculated silver eagles is 533,757. The mintage so far of the 2011 is 333,465 and that's only because the sale of the 25th Anniversary sets tacked on an additional 100,000. I'm not so sure we will see a huge differential between the 2011-S and future S coins.
<< <i>Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? >>
Now why would you think the demand would be split in two? That doesn't make any sence at all. At a minimum, the demand would be equal. Do you really think a collector will only collect one mint mark or try to collect the whole series. I suppose their may be a year collector like those who filled in those old cent (penny) folders but for the most part, everyone I knew who collect Cent coins picked the whole series folder (P, D & S coins). Peole will be forking over twice the money in order to get both coins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to be the Mint come out with 3 or 4 coins sets each year (PR, Unc-W & Unc-S or PR, Unc-bullion, Unc-W & Unc-S, repectively)
<< <i>
<< <i>Since the Mint will still be producing the W coins (at least for 2012), will we see the same demand, but now split in two for each coin? >>
Now why would you think the demand would be split in two? That doesn't make any sence at all. At a minimum, the demand would be equal. Do you really think a collector will only collect one mint mark or try to collect the whole series. I suppose their may be a year collector like those who filled in those old cent (penny) folders but for the most part, everyone I knew who collect Cent coins picked the whole series folder (P, D & S coins). Peole will be forking over twice the money in order to get both coins. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to be the Mint come out with 3 or 4 coins sets each year (PR, Unc-W & Unc-S or PR, Unc-bullion, Unc-W & Unc-S, repectively) >>
The economy still sucks and, if PM prices rebound as I expect they will, people will be more selective in what they buy.
Wondercoin
P.S. As always, just my 2 cents.
10,000 coins in modern gold is now almost high mintage.
If the 1 ounce ends in the high 8000's then that is a lot lower than 10,000. You have to ask though what is the long-term price of gold going to be here. If gold somehow keeps rising and ends this year at $1700 an ounce then the 2012 1 ounce may sell less than the 2011. This is why some are probably not buying in to this being the final king.
If I was a collector of these coins and was just starting then this is the best coin to start with. At 8k plus mintage you have little downside, and if the future coin mintages drop lower you can buy those and still have these making money.
Of coarse the mint could also just be shifting inventory right now and they have another 6k to sell of these. We won't know until the backorders start shipping. For that APMEX inventory i doubt anyone is brave enough today to guess which way the mint goes. At least with a mint backorder you can return the coin if they have a lot more inventory.
The bullion platinum coins could be an interesting issue.....
<< <i> the issue of DEMAND... >>
Demand obviously drives pricing in everything we buy... I have a few vintage collectibles that are prototypes and 1 of 1 known, but there are only a handful of people who even care about them so they're not worth much. That's essentially what I'm trying to guesstimate now is demand for this coin in the near and medium term. No one here has a crystal ball, but I've found that people who have been watching coins like these for much longer than I have always have a perspective worth listening to and considering so that's why I'm seeking input
<< <i> I am frankly at a loss as to why the Reverse Proof $50 gold Eagle type coin is selling ($) where it is selling. I am also surprised the 08-W $50 MS gold eagle is selling where it is at. >>
The revPr AGE does only sell for a surprisingly modest premium considering the mintage and how gorgeous it is (though the last two pcgs 70s on eBay did hit $3300 & $3500). It definitely is a head scratcher on some level. When I stated reasons to buy and not to buy this coin in that other thread I did stress the fact that the '08W $50 age's lack of a premium doesn't bode well for this coin. I guess in the end I'm simply wondering out loud just how significant it is for this coin to be the king of the AGEs, and/or whether or not that will even matter. Personally I'm of the opinion that it will be worth a bit more if it does come in under the '08W $10. Either way it seems to me paying an additional 7% over what a standard 1oz AGE sells for is a smart play for stackers.
...and thanks for your comments Halfstrike
<< <i> I am frankly at a loss as to why the Reverse Proof $50 gold Eagle type coin is selling ($) where it is selling. I am also surprised the 08-W $50 MS gold eagle is selling where it is at. >>
The revPr AGE does only sell for a surprisingly modest premium considering the mintage and how gorgeous it is (though the last two pcgs 70s on eBay did hit $3300 & $3500). It definitely is a head scratcher on some level. When I stated reasons to buy and not to buy this coin in that other thread I did stress the fact that the '08W $50 age's lack of a premium doesn't bode well for this coin. I guess in the end I'm simply wondering out loud just how significant it is for this coin to be the king of the AGEs, and/or whether or not that will even matter. Personally I'm of the opinion that it will be worth a bit more if it does come in under the '08W $10. Either way it seems to me paying an additional 7% over what a standard 1oz AGE sells for is a smart play for stackers.
I think when you look at the valuations of certain moderns you have to also consider the general economy. Many are lowering their budgets for collector coins whereas plain bullion probably has more international interests. This might be an explanation of what we are seeing.
I think when you look at the valuations of certain moderns you have to also consider the general economy. Many are lowering their budgets for collector coins whereas plain bullion probably has more international interests. This might be an explanation of what we are seeing. >>
I have completed positive sales and purchses from the following members:
jclovescoins, dpoole, dmarks, guysmiling, Ducky1100 , piecesofme, ericj96 ,Classof67, ModernCoin, MrOrganic, 53BKid, nychad10, GUINZO1975, derryb (3 times), PinkFloyd
<< <i>Will Eliza take the top spot?? >>
Even if it's not Eliza I think at least one or more of the 2011 coins will take out Julia. If I held any pcgs70 Julia coins I would be selling now... Considering how spouse interest has waned, it would not surprise me to see the 2011's end around 2800-3K each and the 2012's around 2500ea or possibly even lower.
In the meantime I think savvy stackers will do well scooping up certain non-2007 FS coins for melt based pricing. Many of the formerly better pieces have declined in value and if that trend continues collectors during 2012 it may be easy for people to pick up many of the 2009/2010 coins that they missed for no more of a premium than an AGE.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Platinum $1522 per ounce.
2011 one-ounce proof Platinum Eagle from Mint: $1692.
I expect the Mint to reprice the coin higher before long.
(Update 1/18: Mint has raised price to $1792.)
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>2011w gold eagle $50 mint state as of this week 8810 sold >>
Do you think that any will be added in the next week's report or this this is it?
Thanks, R-
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue.
<< <i>In the end it does not matter. We will not know any more than we do now on this coin until this time next year. Its one more already high dollar modern with a moderate mintage with a 2012W that it will have to compete with coming right down behind it.
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue. >>
Hell yes, that is exactly the kind of info I needed, thank you.
Successful card BST transactions with cbcnow, brogurt, gstarling, Bravesfan 007, and rajah 424.
<< <i>In the end it does not matter. We will not know any more than we do now on this coin until this time next year. Its one more already high dollar modern with a moderate mintage with a 2012W that it will have to compete with coming right down behind it.
If you dont already have one I would not chase this issue. >>
Thanks Eric.
If a 2012 W is announced, the time of announcement sounds like a great time to sell this one.
If no 2012 W is minted, this may well be a nice hold for a while.
Guys a few points if you don't mind.
1. The mint says that they want to set the 2012s silver eagle mintage limit at 200,000 special sets with a per household max.
2. They will sell out at the $125-150 price range they are looking at.
3. The W mint marked issues have been going through a classic inaugural spike mintage drop since 2006w (go look at page 50 of our first book) This tends to bottom out around 30% of peak so without split demand the coin is about a 210,000 mintage coin. Now if you assume that the 12s, 13s etc are going to cannibalize sales and use a .6 multiplier which is typical then the 13w, 14w etc are likely to stay above 125,000 going forward.
So the bottom line in my view is the 2012S etc is likley going to be a 200,000 mintage coin for the next few years. When the 12S sells out violently and it will, the heat will spill over to the 12W to some extent and I think it will sell 200,000+ coins too. If the price of silver does not go nuts then its likely over an extended period of time to see all the mint marked silver eagles stay over the 125,000 mark.
As you guys know it is my view that the silver eagle is the modern Morgan and that mint marked silver eagles are the modern "CC". There are many structural reasons for this that I will not go over again here but I will point out one thing. The 1880, 1881 and 1885 CC Morgans with their over 130,000 mint state surviving populations are not the king of the CC set and certainly not the king of the broader Morgan series but they all trade at $500 to $600 each at the center of their mint state grading bell line curve. It will take time but I have no reason to believe that these coins will not trade in that range at the time of series maturity (who knows how long that is). Popularity is important. Ask your self what a 100,000 mintage silver proof 50 state quarter set would sell for. These coins are like that and the Mint is about to emphasize the silver eagles in their marketing efforts.
Big populations are a wonderful thing because they can contribute to collector base development. At the same time a staggered mintage table produces numismatic flare that can help promote collector base formation too. If the Mint cranks through mint marked coins and the mintages stay up over 150,000 coins at each branch mint then its likely to help the 25 anniversary set just as the 25th set helped the MUCH more common 20th set and the coin could be driven into the $500+ MS69 price range over the next 10 years or less. If the branch Mint issues sales sag into the 100,000 to 125,000 range then the 11s will not preform as well as it would have without low mintage siblings.
I dont think the 11s is going to be any better coin than the 11P reverse proof but at the same time its not obvious to me at this point that this new silver dollar marketing focus is going to hurt the 25th set.
Have these coins recently traded ?
I know they are the keys to the quarter proof plats but what are their current prices ?
I see APMEX lists 2005-W PCGS PR70DC (cert# 20587789) at $1900 and 2004-W PCGS PR70DC (cert# 18545069) at $3000 but how close are these prices to reality?
What are the corresponding PCGS PR69 prices?
Not to be a party-pooper, but I see the 97 SMS nickel as being a coin left out of the discussion as its performance, or lack of it is rather germaine IMO: 25k mintage=KING OF THE NICKELS, right? LOL!!
Not sure how it fits with the models for investment performance, what say you [other] Eric?
Well, just Love coins, period.
<< <i>Before everybody goes rah rah, sis-boom-bah over eagles with 100k or 200k mintages, I think one example needs to be though of:
Not to be a party-pooper, but I see the 97 SMS nickel as being a coin left out of the discussion as its performance, or lack of it is rather germaine IMO: 25k mintage=KING OF THE NICKELS, right? LOL!!
Not sure how it fits with the models for investment performance, what say you [other] Eric? >>
Just one man's opinion, but I think the ASE collector base is broader than that of Jefferson 5c and, therefore, not "germaine". I've heard folks say the '94 & '97 SMS Jeffersons, the '96-W Roosevelt and the '98-S JFK commem are more like "novelty" pieces. I've owned all 4 of them at one time and still got a '96-W dime. Kings, queens or otherwise, it seems to me, there's just not much interest/demand.