Why am I envisioning Granny shopping on HSN and saying to herself, I'm going to surprise gramps and put one of these in his stocking over the mantel.
We can open it up when we open presents and all have fun.
330 million people just in this country. 1,000 boxes to sell world wide. Instant sellout.
@NeophyteNumismatist said:
I was not aware we had a 2400 slab limit. I FULLY expect this to hit HSN in the future!
Not a "limit." It's just what the first series is. 800 units; 3 coins per box. Of course, there will be future series if this one flies. I was just responding to your statement that NGC pushed this to move slabs out the door, and opining that 2400 units is nothing to NGC.
@jmlanzaf said:
You're being too literal. The point is that no one guarantees the future value of anything. A disclaimer to that effect is proof of absolutely nothing.
With all due respect, I am not being too literal. I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. I'm not saying they are not guaranteeing future value. I'm saying the buy back guarantee is worthless because they are not promising to buy back at future value, whatever that turns out to be.
Assuming a generous minimum expected value of $300, do you think it's a good gamble to pay $300 (the difference between the $600 price and the assumed $300 minimum value) for a 1 in 800 chance at $20K, and maybe a 1 in 10 chance at something else? Sounds like a TERRIBLE expected return to me. Basically a 90% chance of losing $300 and a 10% of losing less, or making up to a few thousand, with a 0.125% chance to make $20K.
So Schwager has done all the arithmetic so we don't have to. The long story made short is that if we assume retail, or "street price" to be 80% of NGC guide, then the boxes have an expected value of $579 each. For the boxes to have an expected value of $300, you're suggesting that the real value of these coins is less than 42% of the NGC value. FWIW, assuming you buy a box that you know does not have the big winner, your expected value is still around $697 according to the NGC guide.
My take is that you pay $595 and you get three Eagles at full retail. There is a 1 in 800 chance of being the big winner, or a 1 in 80 chance of being a relatively big winner (one coin worth at least $2500 by the NGC guide). I'm not interested in paying full retail for three coins that are likely to not be ones that I would collect, and the chance of a much more valuable coin that I also don't collect doesn't interest me, but it's not a rip off, just not appealing to those of us who don't wish to pay full retail for randomly selected coins.
So Schwager has done all the arithmetic so we don't have to. The long story made short is that if we assume retail, or "street price" to be 80% of NGC guide, then the boxes have an expected value of $579 each. For the boxes to have an expected value of $300, you're suggesting that the real value of these coins is less than 42% of the NGC value. FWIW, assuming you buy a box that you know does not have the big winner, your expected value is still around $697 according to the NGC guide.
My take is that you pay $595 and you get three Eagles at full retail. There is a 1 in 800 chance of being the big winner, or a 1 in 80 chance of being a relatively big winner (one coin worth at least $2500 by the NGC guide). I'm not interested in paying full retail for three coins that are likely to not be ones that I would collect, and the chance of a much more valuable coin that I also don't collect doesn't interest me, but it's not a rip off, just not appealing to those of us who don't wish to pay full retail for randomly selected coins.
YMMV.
While I am too lazy to do the math, it's all there for someone to calculate. I'm not using "full retail," whatever that is, because why would anyone want to pay full retail for something without knowing what that something is? The "fun" and "added value" here is the possibility of making a big score, and having VaultBox make Instant Offers, below FMV, for anything coming out of one of their boxes.
As a result, to me, the expected value of an unopened box would be the wholesale value of all 2400 coins, broken out by the 3 categories, divided by the 800 units. I haven't done the math, but the spreadsheet is there for anyone who wants to do it. I'll be generous and use full Greysheet bid for wholesale, although anyone on this forum who deals will realize that moderns can usually be bought at a discount to Greysheet.
I'm then using my head, and assuming that grading isn't free, packaging isn't free, marketing isn't free, and they are not doing this as a non-profit exercise in public service, and concluding that their $600 VaultBoxes don't contain, on average, more than $300 in coins. Yes, one will be worth over $20K, and a few others will be worth significantly more than $300, which means many will be worth less than $300.
NGC value is a fiction, unless NGC is a buyer at those prices. 80% is just a random discount to that fiction. If dealers don't use fictitious NGC values, I won't either. I note that auction prices, including juice, are almost always significantly less than these prices.
Why not use 80% of Greysheet to get a more realistic idea of what a gambler looking to cash out would receive from one of these boxes, as opposed to what actual collectors would pay a dealer, since the people buying these boxes won't be dealers, and won't receive dealer prices when they go to sell? And, as you correctly point out, real collectors don't pay full retail without knowing what they are buying.
No one could ever make such a guarantee. All anyone could do is guarantee to offer. The future value is unknown. CAC promises to offer, they don't guarantee a purchase.
Again, this objection amounts to saying nothing at all.
If you say so. To me, guaranteeing to buy at X% of Greysheet would be a guarantee. Offering to buy, but disclosing that the offer could be below FMV at the point of sale, or at any point in the future, is worthless, especially when the disclosure also forces an acknowledgement that the box is being sold above FMV, because the box, as well as the buy back guarantee, add value.
Again, a guarantee to offer a penny is not a guarantee. It's a gimmick and a come on to the uninformed, some of whom will hopefully buy high and sell low because they don't know any better. Great deal.
Because I didn't think I had to. My point is the same whether the box is worth $200, $300 or $400. I think it should be obvious that they are not going to all this trouble to sell a $600 box for $600.
If you want to value the boxes at Mike Mezack prices, I guess that's your prerogative. I also don't need to know his costs, or how much HSN charges him for airtime to know that 1 ounce of .999999999999999999 fine silver is not worth $129.99, when millions of whatever he is selling are available.
Here's some simple math. I buy a monster box of eagles at $30 per coin. It costs me $10 to grade them and $10 in packaging/costs. 70% of them grade 70 which gives them a greysheet bid (not even CPG retail which is $89) of $66. Vaultbox makes $16 per coin AT GREYSHEET BID. They don't need to put $300 in coins in a $600 box to make money. They just need bulk submission privileges.
Same thing happens with $5 gold eagles. You buy a monster box for $200 per coin. Add $20 in slab and packaging which gives you$220 in costs and you have a coin with a $245 greysheet bid ($320 CPG).
The 69s are a wash in price.
Put the 2 coins together and you have $270 in costs yielding $311 Greysheet value and a retail value of $409. You can easily provide $500 in value and still make money. That's the model the big sellers (including Minshull) use now for moderns.
Except, this is not what they are doing. They are not buying monster boxes and arbitraging the difference between raw and graded coins, using bulk submission pricing to give them a cost advantage.
They are selling graded coins at a PREMIUM TO FULL RETAIL, as fully disclosed in their Terms and Conditions, and promising to offer to buy them back at a potential DISCOUNT TO FMV (presumably, below wholesale). The justification for the premium is presumably the potential in the gamble to receive more than you paid, plus the guaranteed buy back.
It's a scam, albeit a fully disclosed scam. Just do the math. 800 boxes at $600 each. Do your really think the 2400 coins are worth an aggregate $480,000 at retail? If so, you are wrong, because they are telling you they are not. Do you think they would go to the time and trouble, just to sell coins at the same price they'd sell for anyway?
A few people will make out big. A few others will do okay. And the vast majority will get royally screwed. And, they are fully disclosing it, but most people just won't understand the disclosure. Why do you not see it?
This is for gamblers, not collectors. And gamblers would get a far greater payout percentage, with a far greater potential upside, directing their gambling to casinos, and not putting NGCX graded coins in the middle.
When and if they arrive and the entire lot is a sell out- and I think it will be-
The fun begins when they re really hyped and start appearing on eBay at $800-1,000.
Until the sell out they probably can't publicize the grand slam box.
I think Cracker Jack was the first company to use this marketing technique, at least in the "modern era", but I suppose it isn't too unlike buying old rolls of coins and hoping for a cherry pick.
I'll be curious just to see how many actually get sold.
I'm pretty sure NGC and the VaultBox people wouldn't agree that they're running a scam. The fact you don't like the offer doesn't make it one.
Of course they wouldn't. And there is nothing illegal about screwing someone if you are disclosing that you are doing so, but that doesn't make it right. NGC is just providing a service for a fee. They are doing nothing wrong. VaultBox selling above full retail because their sealed box confers a premium is scammy.
I'm sorry, but selling two common circulating quarters (or even three) for a dollar is not fair, and that's exactly what they are doing. Randomly mixing in a $20 bill (which is included in the $0.50 expected value calculation) doesn't make it any less of a scam. Nor does burying what you are doing in fine print a lot of people are too stupid to understand.
@jmlanzaf said:
Seriously, I could run this operation, tell you exactly what's in the box, guarantee $600 in retail value and still make money. Little old me could do it. I did the math for you right here on the forum. I'm pretty sure the two reputable companies can do the same math.
Why in the name of all that is holy would either one of them risk their reputation by doing anything nefarious for a one-time money grab? Absolutely ludicrous.
I'm sure you could, but that's not what they are doing. They are guaranteeing that there is LESS than $600 retail value in each box.
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
As to why they would do it, I obviously cannot speak for them. Again, NGC is just providing a service for a fee, so I honestly don't think they are doing anything wrong.
As for Minshull, I suspect it's not a one-time money grab, but, rather an attempt to tap into the sports card gambling arena and develop a new vehicle to separate gamblers from their money on a long-term basis. Fully legal, because they are disclosing what they are doing, but scammy nevertheless.
@NJCoin said:
It's a scam, albeit a fully disclosed scam.
I'm pretty sure NGC and the VaultBox people wouldn't agree that they're running a scam. The fact you don't like the offer doesn't make it one.
Really. Ridiculous. A company packages real coins, tells you what the coins are, hires a reputable TPG to assist in grading and packaging and someone throws the S word at them.
I suppose all grab bags in coin stores are also "scams". People throw that word around cavalierly that I don't know what to call it when someone actually runs a dishonest operation.
Seriously, I could run this operation, tell you exactly what's in the box, guarantee $600 in retail value and still make money. Little old me could do it. I did the math for you right here on the forum. I'm pretty sure the two reputable companies can do the same math.
Why in the name of all that is holy would either one of them risk their reputation by doing anything nefarious for a one-time money grab? Absolutely ludicrous.
As I see it, it is a way to sell a lot of fairly priced common coins that would otherwise just sit on the shelves waiting for a buyer. And in the process bring in new collectors.
As I see it, it is a way to sell a lot of fairly priced common coins that would otherwise just sit on the shelves waiting for a buyer. And in the process bring in new collectors.
And, since I am reading the Terms and Conditions literally, and taking them at face value, I see it as a way to sell a lot of unfairly priced common coins that would otherwise just sit on the shelves waiting for a buyer. And in the process turn off new collectors and send them back to the card community they wandered over from.
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
One person out of 800 making a $16K score (the highest price realized on Heritage, so I'm not sure where $20K is coming from), and a few dozen people making something less, while hundreds of people each lose hundreds of dollars seems highly unlikely to cultivate the next generation of numismatists. JMHO.
The 800 suckers/gamblers who bite would be far better off taking their collective $480,000 to any casino in the country. Many will lose, but some will win. They would likely be far better off, collectively, than after opening the boxes and cashing out. If the boxes remain unopened and a secondary market develops at a price in excess of $600, then people are even dumber than I thought, and I will be wrong.
@DisneyFan said:
There is a lot of speculation here. Where is Minshull Trading when we need them here to clarify things?
What do you mean about speculation? The Terms and Conditions are very clear, and are posted right on their website.
This is clearly not being marketed to people on this forum, so why should they feel the need to come here and justify what they are doing? It really does speak for itself.
I'd never expect them to come here and lie to us. I'd also never expect them to validate what I am saying, although anyone here can go on their website, read their Terms and Conditions, and validate it for themselves. Which is why it would not serve their purposes to post anything at all in response to this thread.
I wish they would have their lawyers contact you. The S word is probably actionable.
Could you show me the $300 number in their website? Oh, yeah, you made that up without even doing the math.
Their lawyers wouldn't waste their time. I have the right to an opinion, "scam" is not a legally defined term (fraud is, and I never used that term), and I did say that everything they are doing is perfectly legal, since they are providing full disclosure.
I'm a nobody. Contacting me would accomplish nothing. If they have the same issue you have, and if Collectors Universe agrees, they can get in touch with the mods and ask that my posts be taken down. I'm the author here, but not the publisher.
Maybe I’m pouring gasoline on this thread but I thought some folks might be interested in this YouTube video where they interviewed one of the Vault Box owners today.
Maybe I’m pouring gasoline on this thread but I thought some folks might be interested in this YouTube video where they interviewed one of the Vault Box owners today.
I don't have 30 minutes to devote to this interview, if anyone listens to the whole thing can someone paraphrase for the rest of us? 😊
Maybe I’m pouring gasoline on this thread but I thought some folks might be interested in this YouTube video where they interviewed one of the Vault Box owners today.
I don't have 30 minutes to devote to this interview, if anyone listens to the whole thing can someone paraphrase for the rest of us? 😊
@DeplorableDan said:
I don't have 30 minutes to devote to this interview, if anyone listens to the whole thing can someone paraphrase for the rest of us? 😊
For the record, the video runs for an hour. Regrettably, I'm not up for it.
Maybe I’m pouring gasoline on this thread but I thought some folks might be interested in this YouTube video where they interviewed one of the Vault Box owners today.
Not pouring gas at all. I only made it to the point in the video where he said they have less than 10% margin in the coins, without taking any other costs into account. If true, that is VERY reasonable, and I'd take back everything I said.
I am not a dealer. Is anyone who has access to the Greysheet motivated enough to determine whether the wholesale bids (without regard to any discounts) on the coins posted on their website really total at least $436,364?
If he's saying he's only marking them up 10% over full retail, then I'd be less impressed, since the difference between actual cost and full retail can be quite substantial. Again, the website says they are selling at a premium to full retail, but that does not mean that they are actually doing so for the first series, if they want to jump start this by making less, or actually taking a loss to build momentum. I can't test it, but any dealer with access to wholesale pricing can, since they ARE disclosing what is going into the boxes.
Edit: I made it through most of the rest of the video. Interestingly, he couldn't answer the question about the possibility of scanning the box to determine whether metals other than silver are inside, so it's probably possible, since it sounds like they did not take any steps to prevent it. I don't really think they would screw around and hold back the valuable boxes (although anything is certainly possible), but this does suggest people buying these unopened on the secondary market might be setting themselves up for a royal screwing if resellers are indeed able to scan the boxes.
I do give Blake big time props for being very straight forward, and doing an excellent job promoting this. Given what he claims to be his low margins and advance interest, this should do very well. If people end up getting burned, the next series won't be nearly as successful. If they stick to the script and ramp up their margins over time, they just might build a brand and get people hooked before they become bad deals.
@jmlanzaf said:
So, guilty till proven innocent and you want us to prove innocence.
No. Just asking. If everyone just accepts seller representations at face value, so be it. It sounds very generous to me, and was unclear from the conversation whether he was referring to wholesale or retail numbers. The context implied wholesale, but the website specifically refers to retail.
Not guilty. Not innocent. To be honest, the interview leads me to believe they want these to get off to a fast start, so it is not impossible to believe they are willing to take a loss on them to build excitement and momentum for future series. But it's also not like coin dealers have never been full of crap, so who knows?
If no one with access to the information wants to test the representation, that's fine with me. I'm neither a buyer nor a seller here. Just an interested bystander.
@NJCoin said:
To be honest, the interview leads me to believe they want these to get off to a fast start, so it is not impossible to believe they are willing to take a loss on them to build excitement and momentum for future series.
Take a loss? Earlier in this thread, they were scamming people (according to your interpretation of the offer). Looks like you've got your bets covered now.
@jmlanzaf said:
So, guilty till proven innocent and you want us to prove innocence.
No. Just asking. If everyone just accepts seller representations at face value, so be it. It sounds very generous to me, and was unclear from the conversation whether he was referring to wholesale or retail numbers. The context implied wholesale, but the website specifically refers to retail.
Not guilty. Not innocent. To be honest, the interview leads me to believe they want these to get off to a fast start, so it is not impossible to believe they are willing to take a loss on them to build excitement and momentum for future series. But it's also not like coin dealers have never been full of crap, so who knows?
If no one with access to the information wants to test the representation, that's fine with me. I'm neither a buyer nor a seller here. Just an interested bystander.
I don’t have to the time to invest into thorough research pricing all the coins and figuring out the average wholesale value. However, I’m willing to take one for the team. I’m a gambler, I play poker regularly, and I’m willing to spend 600 on a box as long as they don’t sell out in milliseconds, and I’ll post the results on the forum for all to see. Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
Take a loss? Earlier in this thread, they were scamming people (according to your interpretation of the offer). Looks like you've got your bets covered now.
Yeah, maybe. I'm just going by what he said in the interview, if it's all true. He said all the right things about being in it for the long haul. If they really marked the coins up by less than 10%, based on wholesale values, without taking marketing expenses into account, then it's hard to see how they'll make money.
Of course, if that's not true, or if he's shading by using retail prices instead of wholesale, then, of course, all bets are off and they stand to make a lot on their $480,000 gross, assuming they all sell.
I don’t have to the time to invest into thorough research pricing all the coins and figuring out the average wholesale value. However, I’m willing to take one for the team. I’m a gambler, I play poker regularly, and I’m willing to spend 600 on a box as long as they don’t sell out in milliseconds, and I’ll post the results on the forum for all to see. Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
Long term, it can't be a good deal for the buyers if it's also one for the sellers, especially based on the disclosures that they are selling above retail and buying back below wholesale.
But, for this first series, if you take them at their word and the coins have a minimal mark up to cost (wholesale), then these should be winners for the buyers, since average values will not be at a crazy discount to the $600 price while there will be several winners in addition to the folks hitting homeruns, since we can rarely buy anything at such a small markup.
Basically, these types of coins typically have a bid/offer spread greater than 10%. So, if they are really marking the coins up by less than 10%, then the average retail of each box will be greater than $600. Of course, many boxes will still be worth less, in order to account for the big winners, but if the average retail value is greater than the selling price, and you have the gambling kicker thrown in, then these will be winners for the buyers.
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Does that work for you?
@MasonG said:
Lots of collectors on this forum seem to think their collections are a good investment.
Just sayin'.
Of course they do, but anyone who knows what they are doing is not paying a premium to full retail while building their collection. Plus, to be honest, coins for most of us are not great investments, when compared to alternatives like stocks.
The goal with VaultBox, at least according to their disclosure, is to sell the boxes at a premium to full retail. That will not be a good investment for anyone other than the lucky few who win a big score.
Comments
Why am I envisioning Granny shopping on HSN and saying to herself, I'm going to surprise gramps and put one of these in his stocking over the mantel.
We can open it up when we open presents and all have fun.
330 million people just in this country. 1,000 boxes to sell world wide. Instant sellout.
I was not aware we had a 2400 slab limit. I FULLY expect this to hit HSN in the future!
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
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Not a "limit." It's just what the first series is. 800 units; 3 coins per box. Of course, there will be future series if this one flies. I was just responding to your statement that NGC pushed this to move slabs out the door, and opining that 2400 units is nothing to NGC.
With all due respect, I am not being too literal. I think you are misunderstanding what I am saying. I'm not saying they are not guaranteeing future value. I'm saying the buy back guarantee is worthless because they are not promising to buy back at future value, whatever that turns out to be.
Why on earth would you assume an expected value of $300? I'm going to re-link David Schwager's article that I keep talking about so no one need hunt for it: https://coinweek.com/bullion-report/box-breaks-for-coins-questions-answers-and-numbers-on-vaultbox-series-1/
So Schwager has done all the arithmetic so we don't have to. The long story made short is that if we assume retail, or "street price" to be 80% of NGC guide, then the boxes have an expected value of $579 each. For the boxes to have an expected value of $300, you're suggesting that the real value of these coins is less than 42% of the NGC value. FWIW, assuming you buy a box that you know does not have the big winner, your expected value is still around $697 according to the NGC guide.
My take is that you pay $595 and you get three Eagles at full retail. There is a 1 in 800 chance of being the big winner, or a 1 in 80 chance of being a relatively big winner (one coin worth at least $2500 by the NGC guide). I'm not interested in paying full retail for three coins that are likely to not be ones that I would collect, and the chance of a much more valuable coin that I also don't collect doesn't interest me, but it's not a rip off, just not appealing to those of us who don't wish to pay full retail for randomly selected coins.
YMMV.
While I am too lazy to do the math, it's all there for someone to calculate. I'm not using "full retail," whatever that is, because why would anyone want to pay full retail for something without knowing what that something is? The "fun" and "added value" here is the possibility of making a big score, and having VaultBox make Instant Offers, below FMV, for anything coming out of one of their boxes.
As a result, to me, the expected value of an unopened box would be the wholesale value of all 2400 coins, broken out by the 3 categories, divided by the 800 units. I haven't done the math, but the spreadsheet is there for anyone who wants to do it. I'll be generous and use full Greysheet bid for wholesale, although anyone on this forum who deals will realize that moderns can usually be bought at a discount to Greysheet.
I'm then using my head, and assuming that grading isn't free, packaging isn't free, marketing isn't free, and they are not doing this as a non-profit exercise in public service, and concluding that their $600 VaultBoxes don't contain, on average, more than $300 in coins. Yes, one will be worth over $20K, and a few others will be worth significantly more than $300, which means many will be worth less than $300.
NGC value is a fiction, unless NGC is a buyer at those prices. 80% is just a random discount to that fiction. If dealers don't use fictitious NGC values, I won't either. I note that auction prices, including juice, are almost always significantly less than these prices.
Why not use 80% of Greysheet to get a more realistic idea of what a gambler looking to cash out would receive from one of these boxes, as opposed to what actual collectors would pay a dealer, since the people buying these boxes won't be dealers, and won't receive dealer prices when they go to sell? And, as you correctly point out, real collectors don't pay full retail without knowing what they are buying.
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If you say so. To me, guaranteeing to buy at X% of Greysheet would be a guarantee. Offering to buy, but disclosing that the offer could be below FMV at the point of sale, or at any point in the future, is worthless, especially when the disclosure also forces an acknowledgement that the box is being sold above FMV, because the box, as well as the buy back guarantee, add value.
Again, a guarantee to offer a penny is not a guarantee. It's a gimmick and a come on to the uninformed, some of whom will hopefully buy high and sell low because they don't know any better. Great deal.
Because I didn't think I had to. My point is the same whether the box is worth $200, $300 or $400. I think it should be obvious that they are not going to all this trouble to sell a $600 box for $600.
If you want to value the boxes at Mike Mezack prices, I guess that's your prerogative. I also don't need to know his costs, or how much HSN charges him for airtime to know that 1 ounce of .999999999999999999 fine silver is not worth $129.99, when millions of whatever he is selling are available.
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Except, this is not what they are doing. They are not buying monster boxes and arbitraging the difference between raw and graded coins, using bulk submission pricing to give them a cost advantage.
They are selling graded coins at a PREMIUM TO FULL RETAIL, as fully disclosed in their Terms and Conditions, and promising to offer to buy them back at a potential DISCOUNT TO FMV (presumably, below wholesale). The justification for the premium is presumably the potential in the gamble to receive more than you paid, plus the guaranteed buy back.
It's a scam, albeit a fully disclosed scam. Just do the math. 800 boxes at $600 each. Do your really think the 2400 coins are worth an aggregate $480,000 at retail? If so, you are wrong, because they are telling you they are not. Do you think they would go to the time and trouble, just to sell coins at the same price they'd sell for anyway?
A few people will make out big. A few others will do okay. And the vast majority will get royally screwed. And, they are fully disclosing it, but most people just won't understand the disclosure. Why do you not see it?
This is for gamblers, not collectors. And gamblers would get a far greater payout percentage, with a far greater potential upside, directing their gambling to casinos, and not putting NGCX graded coins in the middle.
I'm pretty sure NGC and the VaultBox people wouldn't agree that they're running a scam. The fact you don't like the offer doesn't make it one.
Ok guys
Let’s just open a few boxes when they arrive, shall we?
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
When and if they arrive and the entire lot is a sell out- and I think it will be-
The fun begins when they re really hyped and start appearing on eBay at $800-1,000.
Until the sell out they probably can't publicize the grand slam box.
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I think Cracker Jack was the first company to use this marketing technique, at least in the "modern era", but I suppose it isn't too unlike buying old rolls of coins and hoping for a cherry pick.
I'll be curious just to see how many actually get sold.
Of course they wouldn't. And there is nothing illegal about screwing someone if you are disclosing that you are doing so, but that doesn't make it right. NGC is just providing a service for a fee. They are doing nothing wrong. VaultBox selling above full retail because their sealed box confers a premium is scammy.
I'm sorry, but selling two common circulating quarters (or even three) for a dollar is not fair, and that's exactly what they are doing. Randomly mixing in a $20 bill (which is included in the $0.50 expected value calculation) doesn't make it any less of a scam. Nor does burying what you are doing in fine print a lot of people are too stupid to understand.
I'm sure you could, but that's not what they are doing. They are guaranteeing that there is LESS than $600 retail value in each box.
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
As to why they would do it, I obviously cannot speak for them. Again, NGC is just providing a service for a fee, so I honestly don't think they are doing anything wrong.
As for Minshull, I suspect it's not a one-time money grab, but, rather an attempt to tap into the sports card gambling arena and develop a new vehicle to separate gamblers from their money on a long-term basis. Fully legal, because they are disclosing what they are doing, but scammy nevertheless.
As I see it, it is a way to sell a lot of fairly priced common coins that would otherwise just sit on the shelves waiting for a buyer. And in the process bring in new collectors.
And, since I am reading the Terms and Conditions literally, and taking them at face value, I see it as a way to sell a lot of unfairly priced common coins that would otherwise just sit on the shelves waiting for a buyer. And in the process turn off new collectors and send them back to the card community they wandered over from.
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
One person out of 800 making a $16K score (the highest price realized on Heritage, so I'm not sure where $20K is coming from), and a few dozen people making something less, while hundreds of people each lose hundreds of dollars seems highly unlikely to cultivate the next generation of numismatists. JMHO.
The 800 suckers/gamblers who bite would be far better off taking their collective $480,000 to any casino in the country. Many will lose, but some will win. They would likely be far better off, collectively, than after opening the boxes and cashing out. If the boxes remain unopened and a secondary market develops at a price in excess of $600, then people are even dumber than I thought, and I will be wrong.
Beatles - We Can Work It Out
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qyclqo_AV2M
https://youtube.com/watch?v=_KWVk0XeB9o - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Piece Of My Heart
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=D0FPxuQv2ns - Ruby Starr (from 'Go Jim Dandy') Maybe I'm Amazed
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There is a lot of speculation here. Where is Minshull Trading when we need them here to clarify things?
32
What do you mean about speculation? The Terms and Conditions are very clear, and are posted right on their website.
This is clearly not being marketed to people on this forum, so why should they feel the need to come here and justify what they are doing? It really does speak for itself.
I'd never expect them to come here and lie to us. I'd also never expect them to validate what I am saying, although anyone here can go on their website, read their Terms and Conditions, and validate it for themselves. Which is why it would not serve their purposes to post anything at all in response to this thread.
33
Their lawyers wouldn't waste their time. I have the right to an opinion, "scam" is not a legally defined term (fraud is, and I never used that term), and I did say that everything they are doing is perfectly legal, since they are providing full disclosure.
I'm a nobody. Contacting me would accomplish nothing. If they have the same issue you have, and if Collectors Universe agrees, they can get in touch with the mods and ask that my posts be taken down. I'm the author here, but not the publisher.
Maybe I’m pouring gasoline on this thread but I thought some folks might be interested in this YouTube video where they interviewed one of the Vault Box owners today.
I don't have 30 minutes to devote to this interview, if anyone listens to the whole thing can someone paraphrase for the rest of us? 😊
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I was hoping for the same thing lol.
For the record, the video runs for an hour. Regrettably, I'm not up for it.
Not pouring gas at all. I only made it to the point in the video where he said they have less than 10% margin in the coins, without taking any other costs into account. If true, that is VERY reasonable, and I'd take back everything I said.
I am not a dealer. Is anyone who has access to the Greysheet motivated enough to determine whether the wholesale bids (without regard to any discounts) on the coins posted on their website really total at least $436,364?
If he's saying he's only marking them up 10% over full retail, then I'd be less impressed, since the difference between actual cost and full retail can be quite substantial. Again, the website says they are selling at a premium to full retail, but that does not mean that they are actually doing so for the first series, if they want to jump start this by making less, or actually taking a loss to build momentum. I can't test it, but any dealer with access to wholesale pricing can, since they ARE disclosing what is going into the boxes.
Edit: I made it through most of the rest of the video. Interestingly, he couldn't answer the question about the possibility of scanning the box to determine whether metals other than silver are inside, so it's probably possible, since it sounds like they did not take any steps to prevent it. I don't really think they would screw around and hold back the valuable boxes (although anything is certainly possible), but this does suggest people buying these unopened on the secondary market might be setting themselves up for a royal screwing if resellers are indeed able to scan the boxes.
I do give Blake big time props for being very straight forward, and doing an excellent job promoting this. Given what he claims to be his low margins and advance interest, this should do very well. If people end up getting burned, the next series won't be nearly as successful. If they stick to the script and ramp up their margins over time, they just might build a brand and get people hooked before they become bad deals.
Has anybody bothered to figure in the value of the box itself?? First edition, first series, first strike boxes...and red...
No. I'm sure even the sellers haven't bothered to figure it out.
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No. Just asking. If everyone just accepts seller representations at face value, so be it. It sounds very generous to me, and was unclear from the conversation whether he was referring to wholesale or retail numbers. The context implied wholesale, but the website specifically refers to retail.
Not guilty. Not innocent. To be honest, the interview leads me to believe they want these to get off to a fast start, so it is not impossible to believe they are willing to take a loss on them to build excitement and momentum for future series. But it's also not like coin dealers have never been full of crap, so who knows?
If no one with access to the information wants to test the representation, that's fine with me. I'm neither a buyer nor a seller here. Just an interested bystander.
Take a loss? Earlier in this thread, they were scamming people (according to your interpretation of the offer). Looks like you've got your bets covered now.
I don’t have to the time to invest into thorough research pricing all the coins and figuring out the average wholesale value. However, I’m willing to take one for the team. I’m a gambler, I play poker regularly, and I’m willing to spend 600 on a box as long as they don’t sell out in milliseconds, and I’ll post the results on the forum for all to see. Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
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Yeah, maybe. I'm just going by what he said in the interview, if it's all true. He said all the right things about being in it for the long haul. If they really marked the coins up by less than 10%, based on wholesale values, without taking marketing expenses into account, then it's hard to see how they'll make money.
Of course, if that's not true, or if he's shading by using retail prices instead of wholesale, then, of course, all bets are off and they stand to make a lot on their $480,000 gross, assuming they all sell.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
Long term, it can't be a good deal for the buyers if it's also one for the sellers, especially based on the disclosures that they are selling above retail and buying back below wholesale.
But, for this first series, if you take them at their word and the coins have a minimal mark up to cost (wholesale), then these should be winners for the buyers, since average values will not be at a crazy discount to the $600 price while there will be several winners in addition to the folks hitting homeruns, since we can rarely buy anything at such a small markup.
Basically, these types of coins typically have a bid/offer spread greater than 10%. So, if they are really marking the coins up by less than 10%, then the average retail of each box will be greater than $600. Of course, many boxes will still be worth less, in order to account for the big winners, but if the average retail value is greater than the selling price, and you have the gambling kicker thrown in, then these will be winners for the buyers.
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Does that work for you?
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Lots of collectors on this forum seem to think their collections are a good investment.
Just sayin'.
Of course they do, but anyone who knows what they are doing is not paying a premium to full retail while building their collection. Plus, to be honest, coins for most of us are not great investments, when compared to alternatives like stocks.
The goal with VaultBox, at least according to their disclosure, is to sell the boxes at a premium to full retail. That will not be a good investment for anyone other than the lucky few who win a big score.