@1904vernacular said:
Collectors still need to learn to buy the coin not the box, period!
Why? This might be a nice starter set to people who want to explore modern bullion coins and for what is the cost of a great meal and wine for 4 at a good restaurant. Why not? If they like what they see, then it might lead to learning to 'buy the coin' as they evolve and increase their interest in collecting. But one has to start somewhere, this could be a good start. Nothing wrong with coming up with new approaches to further activate collecting and grow your buisness as you do it.
This is obviously not targeted at advanced collectors, why are advanced collectors so upset at something that could turn out good for increasing the collector base?
I suspect it if were another TPG involved, it would turn all positive on this thread - 'great idea!', 'great way to get new folks involved in collecting coins!', 'wow, just more proof that XXXX, is the true innovator in grading!'.
I might buy one of these just to see, then perhaps give all of the coins in it away, and skip that next dinner at the best steak house in my area to compensate.....................
@tincup said:
Is the list of copins really accurate for what is in the boxes? Is that $23,000 coin really there?
I'm sure it is - no faster way to lose any trust you might have.
How will anyone know.... if any of those higher value coins have really been found? Just saying...
There's the rub. Years of lottery stories show that as soon as you post that the big prize has been found there's near-zero interest in the rest of the tickets.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
How will anyone know.... if any of those higher value coins have really been found? Just saying...
There's the rub. Years of lottery stories show that as soon as you post that the big prize has been found there's near-zero interest in the rest of the tickets.
I think that is where this type of marketing concept might run into potential problems - If you pay $595 for a box of coins, you want $595 in value, or at least, close to it. Minshull mentions that some will be worth more, some less. So they are banking on the concept of everyone buying to get the box(s) worth more. So like @jmlanzaf says, I wish them luck and hope this brings in new collectors. If a $595 box comes in at say $400, this won't last long and it might actually put people off. I imagine Minshull and collaborators have thought this through and know they have to be reasonable for value for all boxes, not just those with prizes in them. So we will see.
Minshull also said later boxes will be on Morgans, other modern mint products, and ancients. Again for a novice collector, this would be a great way to get an introduction to different aspects of numismatics. As long as the box value is reasonable for the price paid it could work.
@joeykoins said:
If I'm not mistaken?
In a round about way, they're telling you that the three coins they give you. Will be valued pretty high in total. Esp the whole grading aspect in this NEW venue.
Meaning, their cost of the holdered slabs and results of the high grades they give you, 9.9 and/or 10. This alone is the cost of the high premiums they charge $600. So, the three coins should have a value or close to it, that would be the reason for the $600 fee? An average of approximately, $200 apiece!
Now, if you should happened to receive a far better grade and/ or particular coin that would reach the high pinnacle of value. It then would only be a BONUS.
It sounds good when you put it like that Joey, but you’re being very generous with the expectations here. You could get a 3 coins with a “value” (NGC price guide) close to what you paid, but you also could get a box with $255 total “value”. Imagine a non collector that for the first time decides to buy one of these. He/she spends $600 and receives a few different silver eagles with a price guide of $255. They go to hit the “instant offer” and get an offer of 80% ($200). If that was your first coin purchase and you got $200 worth of coins for $600, I can’t imagine that would entice someone to continue with the hobby, it sounds like it might have the opposite effect. I don’t know what the odds are to receive this box as opposed to one with a value close to purchase price, but I’m sure there are some hefty margins built in to this program.
YMMV, but I'd be astonished if the offers are at 80% of guide. Astonished.
@tincup said:
"Sure seems like a suckers bet. Still, It's not a lot of money for some folks, I could see the gamble being fun. Years down the road, I could see un-opened boxes becoming scarce and a part of numismatic history that people will look back on with interest... something like the early photo cert slabs or GSA sale memorabillia."
May be a sucker bet... or not. But for me... it would depend on your faith that all that is stated... is truthful and can b e trusted.
Is the list of copins really accurate for what is in the boxes? Is that $23,000 coin really there?
How will anyone know.... if any of those higher value coins have really been found? Just sayin...
But... I predict there will be money made on these. I expect they will sell out fast (not sure if sales have started or will start). Then watch them be posted on ebay.... advertising chance of getting that $23,000 coin.... unopened box of course. $950 for the unopened box!
I'd be astonished if the list wasn't accurate. I can't imagine NGC throwing away its integrity for a measly $half million. I mean if the vault company goes away its no big deal, but to risk the NGC name…
Not to mention that there is a ton of advertising value for one of the five biggest hits.
@nwcoast said:
Not for me.
If I’m going to spend $600 on coins, I want to know what I’m getting straight up.
If I want an element of surprise, then I can get some kicks roll searching with a lot less downside risk.
On top of that, I’m not into modern- bullion type materials.
And, I don’t trust the good folks packing these boxes to be generous nearly as much as some of my friends here. I’m out.
Maybe, maybe not. I think you misunderstand the possibility of "generosity" here. They've published a list of the 2400 coins included, and, not only that, but the three lists of 800 from which one of each will be selected. You won't find a 1986 Statue Half or a 1927-S Saint.
In any event, you might easily pay $600 to buy a box of coins if you knew that the box had an expected retail value of $1000, that is if the 800 boxes had a retail value of $800,000. It's much less appealing, IMO, if you know that the average full retail value is $578, even less if it's a series you have no interest in.
@1904vernacular said:
Collectors still need to learn to buy the coin not the box, period!
Why? This might be a nice starter set to people who want to explore modern bullion coins and for what is the cost of a great meal and wine for 4 at a good restaurant. Why not? If they like what they see, then it might lead to learning to 'buy the coin' as they evolve and increase their interest in collecting. But one has to start somewhere, this could be a good start. Nothing wrong with coming up with new approaches to further activate collecting and grow your buisness as you do it.
This is obviously not targeted at advanced collectors, why are advanced collectors so upset at something that could turn out good for increasing the collector base?
I suspect it if were another TPG involved, it would turn all positive on this thread - 'great idea!', 'great way to get new folks involved in collecting coins!', 'wow, just more proof that XXXX, is the true innovator in grading!'.
I might buy one of these just to see, then perhaps give all of the coins in it away, and skip that next dinner at the best steak house in my area to compensate.....................
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
I don't know why, but this scenario reminded me of the old joke about the farmer whose mule died. His friend asked him what he was going to do with it, and the farmer said he was going to sell raffle tickets for $1 to win a mule. So his friend asked him, what are you going do when the winner comes to pick up their mule. To which the farmer replied, oh I'll just refund their dollar.
@1904vernacular said:
Collectors still need to learn to buy the coin not the box, period!
Why? This might be a nice starter set to people who want to explore modern bullion coins and for what is the cost of a great meal and wine for 4 at a good restaurant. Why not? If they like what they see, then it might lead to learning to 'buy the coin' as they evolve and increase their interest in collecting. But one has to start somewhere, this could be a good start. Nothing wrong with coming up with new approaches to further activate collecting and grow your buisness as you do it.
This is obviously not targeted at advanced collectors, why are advanced collectors so upset at something that could turn out good for increasing the collector base?
I suspect it if were another TPG involved, it would turn all positive on this thread - 'great idea!', 'great way to get new folks involved in collecting coins!', 'wow, just more proof that XXXX, is the true innovator in grading!'.
I might buy one of these just to see, then perhaps give all of the coins in it away, and skip that next dinner at the best steak house in my area to compensate.....................
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
This is the most reasonable counterpoint I have heard. No NGC bashing, just an honest evaluation that might be correct. We will have to see how this plays out. The only point I would make is if you are someone who has thought about collecting, live no where near a coin shop, have no idea what to buy, this still seems like some way in. It is easier to motivate yourself to 'research' once you have data in hand, in this case 3 coins to examine, evaluate, and from this explore. Still might be good for some but I agree if you can go into a coin shop and the dealer is not a snake, you could greatly benefit from spending that $600 there.....
@Treeman said:
It is similar to me selling 50 rolls of wheat cents for $50/roll, with one roll containing an '09 S VDB. Somebody gets a big win, everybody else takes a loss. Yes, very much a lottery, but the loser doesn't lose it all. More than likely legit, because they make money, and there will be winners.
It's only legit if you carefully read, and more importantly, understand, their terms and conditions. Most newbies won't. Aside from a very few out of 800 coins, the value will derive from the label, and that will turn out to be total BS. Once the coins are revealed, NO ONE is going to pay a premium for a common bullion coin in a VaultBox slab. Moreover, the buy back will be worthless, because they are not guaranteeing to buy back at FMV, let alone the premium they are stating these coins command.
If you think that's a legit way to market a $600 mystery box to non-collectors, more power to you. I think it's likely to turn non-collectors into never-collectors after they discover what happened.
@ChrisH821 said:
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
I think you are missing a point, at least part of this is to get the NGCX grading system into a lot of hands.
-----Burton ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
@ChrisH821 said:
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
I think you are missing a point, at least part of this is to get the NGCX grading system into a lot of hands.
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
Agree 100%. The value here will be on the flip, sealed. I never thought about the detector thing but there are hand held wand style detectors now where one only needs to wave it over the box.
I get it...These guys are trying to appeal to card collectors who like to do pack breaks, box breaks etc... but it's just not the same thing with coins. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but frankly I doubt it. The only people who will come out on this are the people selling the boxes and the flippers. I'm sorry but I've never been a fan of the whole pig in a poke marketing method. A lot of folks will be sorely disappointed IMO.
When the Cheerios boxes came with a new cent and some boxes came with the cent and the new dollar coin, there were instances of people bring metal detectors into stores and scanning the boxes of cereal looking for boxes with the dollars in them. I heard tales of people being escorted out of the stores and forbidden to come back in with their machines. I doubt that anyone selling the vault boxes would let someone scan those boxes but don't doubt that dealers stocking the boxes would search them first.
@Klif50 said:
When the Cheerios boxes came with a new cent and some boxes came with the cent and the new dollar coin, there were instances of people bring metal detectors into stores and scanning the boxes of cereal looking for boxes with the dollars in them. I heard tales of people being escorted out of the stores and forbidden to come back in with their machines. I doubt that anyone selling the vault boxes would let someone scan those boxes but don't doubt that dealers stocking the boxes would search them first.
And again: it's NGC stocking the boxes. Not any dealer.
@joeykoins said:
If I'm not mistaken?
In a round about way, they're telling you that the three coins they give you. Will be valued pretty high in total. Esp the whole grading aspect in this NEW venue.
Meaning, their cost of the holdered slabs and results of the high grades they give you, 9.9 and/or 10. This alone is the cost of the high premiums they charge $600. So, the three coins should have a value or close to it, that would be the reason for the $600 fee? An average of approximately, $200 apiece!
Now, if you should happened to receive a far better grade and/ or particular coin that would reach the high pinnacle of value. It then would only be a BONUS.
It sounds good when you put it like that Joey, but you’re being very generous with the expectations here. You could get a 3 coins with a “value” (NGC price guide) close to what you paid, but you also could get a box with $255 total “value”. Imagine a non collector that for the first time decides to buy one of these. He/she spends $600 and receives a few different silver eagles with a price guide of $255. They go to hit the “instant offer” and get an offer of 80% ($200). If that was your first coin purchase and you got $200 worth of coins for $600, I can’t imagine that would entice someone to continue with the hobby, it sounds like it might have the opposite effect. I don’t know what the odds are to receive this box as opposed to one with a value close to purchase price, but I’m sure there are some hefty margins built in to this program.
YMMV, but I'd be astonished if the offers are at 80% of guide. Astonished.
I wouldn't. We're talking about Eagles. They are pretty liquid.
Thanks to @DeplorableDan so are dealers here offering, say, $40 to the public for 2021 MS 69 silver eagles? Or $560 for a 2000 MS 70 tenth ounce platinum? Or $480 for a 2022-W PR 69 quarter ounce gold? I'm not judging, but have never sold these coins wholesale (or bought) so am genuinely curious.
Agree this does sound very familiar with what a lot of “new collectors” are doing which is leveraging the internet to buy and flip for a profit. Probably not far off that a lot of these will be posted for double on eBay.
@Klif50 said:
When the Cheerios boxes came with a new cent and some boxes came with the cent and the new dollar coin, there were instances of people bring metal detectors into stores and scanning the boxes of cereal looking for boxes with the dollars in them. I heard tales of people being escorted out of the stores and forbidden to come back in with their machines. I doubt that anyone selling the vault boxes would let someone scan those boxes but don't doubt that dealers stocking the boxes would search them first.
And again: it's NGC stocking the boxes. Not any dealer.
NGC is not stocking the boxes in the sense of stocking inventory. They are filling the boxes. I'm not sure anyone but vaultbox is actually stocking them at this point, although a secondary market may arise.
Perhaps I misunderstood. The Coinweek article linked above said that, in effect, NGC has three groups of 800 coins and 800 boxes. It takes one coin from each group and puts it into a box. There is no way for Vaultbox to know which box contains which of the 2400 coins. I meant stocking the boxes in the sense of putting the coins in them. If it was meant in the sense of offering the boxes for sale then you are, of course, correct.
@joeykoins said:
If I'm not mistaken?
In a round about way, they're telling you that the three coins they give you. Will be valued pretty high in total. Esp the whole grading aspect in this NEW venue.
Meaning, their cost of the holdered slabs and results of the high grades they give you, 9.9 and/or 10. This alone is the cost of the high premiums they charge $600. So, the three coins should have a value or close to it, that would be the reason for the $600 fee? An average of approximately, $200 apiece!
Now, if you should happened to receive a far better grade and/ or particular coin that would reach the high pinnacle of value. It then would only be a BONUS.
It sounds good when you put it like that Joey, but you’re being very generous with the expectations here. You could get a 3 coins with a “value” (NGC price guide) close to what you paid, but you also could get a box with $255 total “value”. Imagine a non collector that for the first time decides to buy one of these. He/she spends $600 and receives a few different silver eagles with a price guide of $255. They go to hit the “instant offer” and get an offer of 80% ($200). If that was your first coin purchase and you got $200 worth of coins for $600, I can’t imagine that would entice someone to continue with the hobby, it sounds like it might have the opposite effect. I don’t know what the odds are to receive this box as opposed to one with a value close to purchase price, but I’m sure there are some hefty margins built in to this program.
YMMV, but I'd be astonished if the offers are at 80% of guide. Astonished.
I wouldn't. We're talking about Eagles. They are pretty liquid.
Thanks to @DeplorableDan so are dealers here offering, say, $40 to the public for 2021 MS 69 silver eagles? Or $560 for a 2000 MS 70 tenth ounce platinum? Or $480 for a 2022-W PR 69 quarter ounce gold? I'm not judging, but have never sold these coins wholesale (or bought) so am genuinely curious.
No. Maybe (why $560 for 1/10 platinum? Aren't there 2 other coins in there?). Yes.
69 ASEs trade pretty close to raw. Proof gold has a large premium, current wholesale is over $500.
But vaultbox should be paying more than the average dealer if they are trying to make market in these coins.
The article cited above included a link to a spreadsheet of the 2400 coins included in these boxes, along with the NGC price guide. There are between 1 and 30 of each offered. As stated, each box contains one coin from column A, one from column B, and one from column C. Since the instant offer would be for no more than 30 coins, I doubt that that qualifies as a "market maker".
Well if you do want one, you might as well get two...that's the limit. And it's hyped with a release date - better get yours early before they're all gone!!!
"Limit 2 per Customer
Release Date: January 25th, 2023 at 9am PST"
And here's the coin everyone will be searching for:
Just got word from my friend, Shaun
(BlueRidgeSilverHound), from one of his latest YouTube videos. That he, himself, will be doing a personal interview with one of the creator's of this NEW product. Shaun said, that he will be hitting him with the hard questions about what will the average value of the 3 coins in each box would be. As well as, how many boxes will be produced before the next series. Meaning, the next level, the coins will be a different denomination? As well as, many other curious questions. The gentleman already told Shaun, that this will NOT be like the Baseball card industry, in which the boxes of premium value, the majority of the Baseball cards in their boxes, were very common and not worth even saving.
The 3 coins, inside every box, will be as stated.
One Coin = Common
One Coin = Uncommon
One Coin = Rare
However, even their "Common" coin will be of significant VALUE!
Not like in the Baseball premium boxes. Mediocre Baseball players with their card only worth the value of the paper it's made of.
I'll keep you guys in tune what and how the interview turns out.
Thanks
😊
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
@joeykoins said:
If I'm not mistaken?
In a round about way, they're telling you that the three coins they give you. Will be valued pretty high in total. Esp the whole grading aspect in this NEW venue.
Meaning, their cost of the holdered slabs and results of the high grades they give you, 9.9 and/or 10. This alone is the cost of the high premiums they charge $600. So, the three coins should have a value or close to it, that would be the reason for the $600 fee? An average of approximately, $200 apiece!
Now, if you should happened to receive a far better grade and/ or particular coin that would reach the high pinnacle of value. It then would only be a BONUS.
It sounds good when you put it like that Joey, but you’re being very generous with the expectations here. You could get a 3 coins with a “value” (NGC price guide) close to what you paid, but you also could get a box with $255 total “value”. Imagine a non collector that for the first time decides to buy one of these. He/she spends $600 and receives a few different silver eagles with a price guide of $255. They go to hit the “instant offer” and get an offer of 80% ($200). If that was your first coin purchase and you got $200 worth of coins for $600, I can’t imagine that would entice someone to continue with the hobby, it sounds like it might have the opposite effect. I don’t know what the odds are to receive this box as opposed to one with a value close to purchase price, but I’m sure there are some hefty margins built in to this program.
YMMV, but I'd be astonished if the offers are at 80% of guide. Astonished.
I wouldn't. We're talking about Eagles. They are pretty liquid.
Thanks to @DeplorableDan so are dealers here offering, say, $40 to the public for 2021 MS 69 silver eagles? Or $560 for a 2000 MS 70 tenth ounce platinum? Or $480 for a 2022-W PR 69 quarter ounce gold? I'm not judging, but have never sold these coins wholesale (or bought) so am genuinely curious.
No. Maybe (why $560 for 1/10 platinum? Aren't there 2 other coins in there?). Yes.
69 ASEs trade pretty close to raw. Proof gold has a large premium, current wholesale is over $500.
But vaultbox should be paying more than the average dealer if they are trying to make market in these coins.
The article cited above included a link to a spreadsheet of the 2400 coins included in these boxes, along with the NGC price guide. There are between 1 and 30 of each offered. As stated, each box contains one coin from column A, one from column B, and one from column C. Since the instant offer would be for no more than 30 coins, I doubt that that qualifies as a "market maker".
It may be 30 coins but it's 100% of the vaultboxes.
Market maker only means you have open bid/asks in a commodity. You don't have to handle the entire market.
Now I'm even more confused. I was referring to the "instant offer" which presumably applied to the individual coins in the boxes. Am I confused as to what is meant y "instant offer"?
@joeykoins said:
Just got word from my friend, Shaun
(BlueRidgeSilverHound), from one of his latest YouTube videos. That he, himself, will be doing a personal interview with one of the creator's of this NEW product. Shaun said, that he will be hitting him with the hard questions about what will the average value of the 3 coins in each box would be. As well as, how many boxes will be produced before the next series. Meaning, the next level, the coins will be a different denomination? As well as, many other curious questions. The gentleman already told Shaun, that this will NOT be like the Baseball card industry, in which the boxes of premium value, the majority of the Baseball cards in their boxes, were very common and not worth even saving.
The 3 coins here, will be as stated.
One Coin = Common
One Coin = Uncommon
One Coin = Rare
However, even their "Common" coin will be of significant VALUE!
Not a mediocre Baseball player with their card only worth the value of the paper it's made of.
I'll keep you guys in tune what and how the interview turns out.
Thanks
😊
I think if you read the CoinWeek interview cited above you'll get most of these answers. If you click on the spreadsheet link in the interview, you'll get far more.
No, i think you're right. But my supposition is that they want the vaultboxes to catch on. That means they have to try to guarantee a secondary market for the coins. It's part of their sales pitch. If you buy a box and get lowballed on the purchase offer, you'll never buy another not well you create good word of mouth.
And yet, while their marketing implies otherwise, this is exactly all they are guaranteeing in their Term and Conditions:
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that there is substantial value in both the limited edition NGCX-graded VaultBox coins and the Instant Offer Guaranty. Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
"VaultBox does not guarantee that it’s instant offers for any given coin will equal or exceed any itemized portion of the VaultBox purchase price. VaultBox does not guarantee that it’s instant offers for any given coin will equal or exceed the value of said coin at the time of purchase of a VaultBox box."
Basically, they are making you acknowledge that you are paying above market for the box, because the box and label have substantial inherent value, AND, that the buy back offer could be below market for the coin itself, let alone below the alleged increased value imparted by the box and label.
While the folks behind this are reputable, it feels kind of scammy. They are trying to jump start a way to collect blind, where the value is in what you don't know. They only way for it to work for them is to sell for a premium to the cost of the coins, packaging, grading, marketing, etc.
If it takes off, great. Everyone wins, and unopened boxes will trade at a premium to the issue price. If not, the buyers will be the losers, and the buy back will be WORTHLESS, since anyone can always sell anything below market, which is all they are promising. That's really not market making. It's more like exploitation of people who don't know any better.
At the end of the day, these are not Dawn and Dusk labels created by the mint itself. No coin in the box, once the box is opened, will command an after market premium because it was once in the box. They are selling the expectation that they will be, but that is not what they promise in the fine print of their Instant Offer guarantee.
They are not guaranteeing a "low ball" offer. They are simply not guaranteeing an instant profit. That is hardly the same thing. Some boxes do have winners in them. And if gold goes up, many boxes may have winners in them. You also can't know whether the coins will have a market premium or not. I never understood the market premium for "first strike", "Mercanti" or any of the dozen other labels out there. However many of them do carry a premium. These will, if nothing else, always be among the first of the NGCX labels.
And, again, being a market maker isn't the same as setting the market. CAC is not always the higher buyer for all series. Nonetheless, they do make market in CAC labels because they will bid anything even if others bid higher. Market makers are often buyers of last resort.
With all due respect, if you read their Terms and take them at face value, while it is true that they are not guaranteeing a low ball offer, they are forcing you to acknowledge both that the coins have an above market value by virtue of their packaging and label, AND that their Instant Offer could be below not only the enhanced value of the coin, but even below the non-enhanced value of the coin, both at the time of sale and at the time of the offer.
Basically, they are only guaranteeing that they will make an offer. Not that it will be at FMV at any point in time. Of course, if silver goes to $10,000 an ounce and gold goes to $50,000 per ounce, all boxes will be winners. That's not the point.
The point is, once you strip away all of the BS, they are disclosing that the boxes will be sold at at premium to their collective value, kind of like lottery tickets that pay back $0.50 for every $1.00 in sales. Yes, there will be winners, but the pool as a whole will lose, which is how governments make money off the lottery.
Same thing here, and they are fully disclosing it, albeit in fine print buried in their Terms and Conditions. The coins are being sold at a premium because one person out of 800 is going to get $20K+ for $600, and several other people will receive more than $600 from their boxes. OTOH, Instant Offers are not guaranteed to even be at FMV, taking away potential premium attributed to the label.
There will, of course, be no premium attached to an unsealed box once the seal is broken. Like the lottery, the pool as a whole will lose bigly, because the costs of grading, packaging, marketing and profit to the marketer must be covered by proceeds from the sale. I do know that, once opened, no coin in the box will sell at a premium because someone put it in a sealed box before someone else took it out. NGCX VaultBox labels will have exactly the same after market premium Mike Mezack strictly limited edition HSN labels do. Zero.
First strike means something to some people because it means the coin was not cracked out and resubmitted. Others maybe collect signatures. The value here is in the lottery. Not in a red label from a TPG selling to the trading card card crowd. Baseball cards busted out of a special sealed lottery box don't sell at a premium to baseball cards taken from another package.
You're right, maybe a premium for the label will develop, but VaultBox is not only not guaranteeing that, they are expressly disclaiming it by making clear that their buy back might not even be at FMV for the coin without the label.
The only way these could potentially retain a premium will be if they trade unopened in a secondary market, which seems HIGHLY unlikely since we all have access to the spreadsheet and can readily calculate the expected value of a box, which will undoubtedly be FAR below $600. They are already a rip off at $600, given that VaultBox is making money selling at that price after all of their expenses in bringing them to market. It would be truly unbelievable if people would pay even more than that on a secondary market for a shot at $20K+ with an expected value of less than $300-400, even after taking the $20K into account.
I would be worried about the secondary market for unopened boxes in a scenario where people post themselves unboxing the 2020 V75 eagle or other key coins that ends up lowering the probabilistic value of what you have in all the remaining sealed boxes.
@jeffas1974 said:
I would be worried about the secondary market for unopened boxes in a scenario where people post themselves unboxing the 2020 V75 eagle or other key coins that ends up lowering the probabilistic value of what you have in all the remaining sealed boxes.
Agreed. What would be even more dangerous would be no one disclosing that they pulled the coin, while the coin was indeed discovered. That could cause people to chase a coin that does not exist. Another reason I'd NEVER touch these after they leave VaultBox's vault.
But, even if that does not happen, it's going to be difficult justifying selling these above issue price when the secondary seller will have none of the costs that VaultBox does in putting these together. The only hope is the greater fool theory, and that always ends in pain when the bubble bursts, assuming one even develops here.
Assuming a generous minimum expected value of $300, do you think it's a good gamble to pay $300 (the difference between the $600 price and the assumed $300 minimum value) for a 1 in 800 chance at $20K, and maybe a 1 in 10 chance at something else? Sounds like a TERRIBLE expected return to me. Basically a 90% chance of losing $300 and a 10% of losing less, or making up to a few thousand, with a 0.125% chance to make $20K.
Collectors can justify paying a spread above wholesale for coins they want for their collection, since dealers need to be allowed to make a profit in order for a viable industry to exist. Buying blind, OTOH, is simple gambling, even though everyone will end up with something of value.
As a result, the proper value of opened boxes is going to be what the gambler can sell the coins for (wholesale), and not the retail price they'd pay, since, presumably, people will not be paying $600 to build a collection of bullion, burnished and proof ASEs in VaultBox labels they could buy for a fraction of the cost. They are buying the boxes for a shot at getting a valuable coin, gold, platinum or palladium, in which case they cannot monetize their win without selling.
Or, maybe they hope a market will develop where they can sell an unopened box to a greater fool. I'm sorry, but I don't see the fun in buying a scratch off with an expected value of one-half what I pay for it. Same with a scratch off box of coins, even as a coin collector.
This is not a form of coin collecting. This is gambling, with VaultBox as the house, with a take that would cause any regulator to shut down any licensed casino for stealing from its customers. What's even crazier is that it's all fully disclosed. Unfortunately, most people are too lazy to find the disclosure, or too uninformed to understand it.
That is the same disclosure that every stock broker, every bond broker, and every bank issues. You're reading it as proof that their offer will be lower. All it is saying is that they won't guarantee that they will rebuild it at the sale price. Guess what, EVERY DEALER including [fill in your favorite here] would say exactly the same thing. Dealers are not in the business of buying and selling at the same price.
Actually, that's not true. Investment disclosures state that markets go up and down, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Brokers don't make markets, but an investor can always sell at the then current market to a market maker. Bonds are in more of a grey area, since there is no national transparent market for debt, and you can actually get screwed by your broker. I'm not sure what banks have to do with anything, since anything they do is fully disclosed, and they can also screw customers through disclosures, just like what is happening here.
Unlike CAC, stock brokers work in a regulated market, and have a fiduciary duty to get a seller the highest price at the time of sale. Just Google "Best Execution." Here, VaultBox is making no such guarantee. They are disclosing that they are selling above the current FMV, because they are attributing value to the sealed box and the label.
They are promising to make a buy back offer, but are stating that the offer could be below even the current price without the label, and below any future market without the label. They are promising nothing, since their offer could literally be $0.01 for the AGE with the privy mark.
It goes far beyond merely saying the buy price will be below the sell price. They are also saying the buy price could be an unlimited amount below everyone else's buy price. Which means it has no value at all, so should not be used to partially justify a premium in their sell price.
It's not proof of a low ball offer. It's proof that their offer might be worthless, since anyone could sell any coin below market if they are desperate, and there is no floor on what they might offer, although there is a significant premium when they sell. Part of that premium is attributable to their promise of an Instant Offer, which, upon close inspection, is actually worth nothing.
@NeophyteNumismatist said:
The more I think about this, the more I think it is really about getting as many NGCX slabs out in the market as quickly as possible.
Why? It represents 2400 slabs. Why would that make a difference to NGC? I'm sure Mike Mezack moved more than that in 5 minutes on HSN.
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. This is about the folks behind it trying to replicate what the card companies do with respect to the gambling aspect of seeding sealed boxes with winning lottery tickets, in order to try to attract young gamblers to the hobby while making a pretty penny.
I honestly don't see it, because the economics are skewed very much against the buyers, but, who knows? I also don't understand why people who have a difficult time making ends meet each month buy lottery tickets, week after week, when they can see that the dream of a carefree life they are being sold is a fiction that serves no purpose other than to impose a regressive tax on them to avoid raising tax rates for everyone else.
Comments
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Why? This might be a nice starter set to people who want to explore modern bullion coins and for what is the cost of a great meal and wine for 4 at a good restaurant. Why not? If they like what they see, then it might lead to learning to 'buy the coin' as they evolve and increase their interest in collecting. But one has to start somewhere, this could be a good start. Nothing wrong with coming up with new approaches to further activate collecting and grow your buisness as you do it.
This is obviously not targeted at advanced collectors, why are advanced collectors so upset at something that could turn out good for increasing the collector base?
I suspect it if were another TPG involved, it would turn all positive on this thread - 'great idea!', 'great way to get new folks involved in collecting coins!', 'wow, just more proof that XXXX, is the true innovator in grading!'.
I might buy one of these just to see, then perhaps give all of the coins in it away, and skip that next dinner at the best steak house in my area to compensate.....................
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Here is Lee Minshull at FUN talking about VB:
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You guys want a lower cost option? I’ll do them all day long for you.
$40 coin in 9 boxes, $500 coin in the 10th box.
Sell them for $100 each. I’ll do it until there are no more boxes left on earth.
I'm sure it is - no faster way to lose any trust you might have.
There's the rub. Years of lottery stories show that as soon as you post that the big prize has been found there's near-zero interest in the rest of the tickets.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
I think that is where this type of marketing concept might run into potential problems - If you pay $595 for a box of coins, you want $595 in value, or at least, close to it. Minshull mentions that some will be worth more, some less. So they are banking on the concept of everyone buying to get the box(s) worth more. So like @jmlanzaf says, I wish them luck and hope this brings in new collectors. If a $595 box comes in at say $400, this won't last long and it might actually put people off. I imagine Minshull and collaborators have thought this through and know they have to be reasonable for value for all boxes, not just those with prizes in them. So we will see.
Minshull also said later boxes will be on Morgans, other modern mint products, and ancients. Again for a novice collector, this would be a great way to get an introduction to different aspects of numismatics. As long as the box value is reasonable for the price paid it could work.
YMMV, but I'd be astonished if the offers are at 80% of guide. Astonished.
I'd be astonished if the list wasn't accurate. I can't imagine NGC throwing away its integrity for a measly $half million. I mean if the vault company goes away its no big deal, but to risk the NGC name…
Not to mention that there is a ton of advertising value for one of the five biggest hits.
Maybe, maybe not. I think you misunderstand the possibility of "generosity" here. They've published a list of the 2400 coins included, and, not only that, but the three lists of 800 from which one of each will be selected. You won't find a 1986 Statue Half or a 1927-S Saint.
In any event, you might easily pay $600 to buy a box of coins if you knew that the box had an expected retail value of $1000, that is if the 800 boxes had a retail value of $800,000. It's much less appealing, IMO, if you know that the average full retail value is $578, even less if it's a series you have no interest in.
I have to disagree, I think this is absolutely terrible for new collectors to be getting into. As a new collector, why would anyone spend $600 on three mystery coins that they could potentially loose 50% of their money on right out of the box? Or I guess I should ask what type of new collector would spend $600 on a mystery box? The answer is more than likely the speculative type who has dollar signs in their eyes. Especially the way this is being advertised. Give a new collector $600 in a coin shop and 9 times out of 10 will leave happier and more satisfied than if they spend that same $600 blindly on 3 coins.
I think these are aimed at established collectors who don't mind gambling a little bit with $600, you are guaranteed to get at least something in return but not necessarily your entire investment. And that's fine, they have to make money or they wouldn't be doing this. Hell I might buy one just to see if I get lucky, but probably not. The issue I have is that this seems to be touted as some sort of entry point to the hobby. It is definitely not.
I think any new people this brings into the hobby will not be collectors, they will be flippers.
My prediction is these will sell out within 30 minutes and about 50% of them will be on eBay at twice the issue price... Wait, would these even be allowed on eBay?... But what happens then? Who's to say the secondary market boxes haven't been "inspected" with a metal detector to see if they contain gold? Is there some shielding to prevent that?
Collector, occasional seller
I don't know why, but this scenario reminded me of the old joke about the farmer whose mule died. His friend asked him what he was going to do with it, and the farmer said he was going to sell raffle tickets for $1 to win a mule. So his friend asked him, what are you going do when the winner comes to pick up their mule. To which the farmer replied, oh I'll just refund their dollar.
Philippians 4:4-7
This is the most reasonable counterpoint I have heard. No NGC bashing, just an honest evaluation that might be correct. We will have to see how this plays out. The only point I would make is if you are someone who has thought about collecting, live no where near a coin shop, have no idea what to buy, this still seems like some way in. It is easier to motivate yourself to 'research' once you have data in hand, in this case 3 coins to examine, evaluate, and from this explore. Still might be good for some but I agree if you can go into a coin shop and the dealer is not a snake, you could greatly benefit from spending that $600 there.....
Best, SH
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It's only legit if you carefully read, and more importantly, understand, their terms and conditions. Most newbies won't. Aside from a very few out of 800 coins, the value will derive from the label, and that will turn out to be total BS. Once the coins are revealed, NO ONE is going to pay a premium for a common bullion coin in a VaultBox slab. Moreover, the buy back will be worthless, because they are not guaranteeing to buy back at FMV, let alone the premium they are stating these coins command.
If you think that's a legit way to market a $600 mystery box to non-collectors, more power to you. I think it's likely to turn non-collectors into never-collectors after they discover what happened.
I think you are missing a point, at least part of this is to get the NGCX grading system into a lot of hands.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
Yes this will certainly do that.
Collector, occasional seller
Agree 100%. The value here will be on the flip, sealed. I never thought about the detector thing but there are hand held wand style detectors now where one only needs to wave it over the box.
I get it...These guys are trying to appeal to card collectors who like to do pack breaks, box breaks etc... but it's just not the same thing with coins. Maybe I'll be proven wrong but frankly I doubt it. The only people who will come out on this are the people selling the boxes and the flippers. I'm sorry but I've never been a fan of the whole pig in a poke marketing method. A lot of folks will be sorely disappointed IMO.
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
When the Cheerios boxes came with a new cent and some boxes came with the cent and the new dollar coin, there were instances of people bring metal detectors into stores and scanning the boxes of cereal looking for boxes with the dollars in them. I heard tales of people being escorted out of the stores and forbidden to come back in with their machines. I doubt that anyone selling the vault boxes would let someone scan those boxes but don't doubt that dealers stocking the boxes would search them first.
I guess a simple protective measure from such metal detecting shenanigans would be to package the inner box in aluminum foil.
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"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
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And PowerBall and MegaMillions and all the other lotteries.
ANA 50 year/Life Member (now "Emeritus")
And again: it's NGC stocking the boxes. Not any dealer.
Not to go too far off topic, but any idea what 10 and 9.9 would equate to on a 70 scale?
10 = 70
9.9 = 69
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Thanks to @DeplorableDan so are dealers here offering, say, $40 to the public for 2021 MS 69 silver eagles? Or $560 for a 2000 MS 70 tenth ounce platinum? Or $480 for a 2022-W PR 69 quarter ounce gold? I'm not judging, but have never sold these coins wholesale (or bought) so am genuinely curious.
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I have a 38 buffalo pcgs slabbed some where that I paid $55 for, I guess that's not 600 but still nice
Note it's got a nice gold tone to it
Agree this does sound very familiar with what a lot of “new collectors” are doing which is leveraging the internet to buy and flip for a profit. Probably not far off that a lot of these will be posted for double on eBay.
Perhaps I misunderstood. The Coinweek article linked above said that, in effect, NGC has three groups of 800 coins and 800 boxes. It takes one coin from each group and puts it into a box. There is no way for Vaultbox to know which box contains which of the 2400 coins. I meant stocking the boxes in the sense of putting the coins in them. If it was meant in the sense of offering the boxes for sale then you are, of course, correct.
The article cited above included a link to a spreadsheet of the 2400 coins included in these boxes, along with the NGC price guide. There are between 1 and 30 of each offered. As stated, each box contains one coin from column A, one from column B, and one from column C. Since the instant offer would be for no more than 30 coins, I doubt that that qualifies as a "market maker".
Well if you do want one, you might as well get two...that's the limit. And it's hyped with a release date - better get yours early before they're all gone!!!
"Limit 2 per Customer
Release Date: January 25th, 2023 at 9am PST"
And here's the coin everyone will be searching for:
Oh brother.
That's right put your money on red.
Just got word from my friend, Shaun
(BlueRidgeSilverHound), from one of his latest YouTube videos. That he, himself, will be doing a personal interview with one of the creator's of this NEW product. Shaun said, that he will be hitting him with the hard questions about what will the average value of the 3 coins in each box would be. As well as, how many boxes will be produced before the next series. Meaning, the next level, the coins will be a different denomination? As well as, many other curious questions. The gentleman already told Shaun, that this will NOT be like the Baseball card industry, in which the boxes of premium value, the majority of the Baseball cards in their boxes, were very common and not worth even saving.
The 3 coins, inside every box, will be as stated.
One Coin = Common
One Coin = Uncommon
One Coin = Rare
However, even their "Common" coin will be of significant VALUE!
Not like in the Baseball premium boxes. Mediocre Baseball players with their card only worth the value of the paper it's made of.
I'll keep you guys in tune what and how the interview turns out.
Thanks
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--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.19
Now I'm even more confused. I was referring to the "instant offer" which presumably applied to the individual coins in the boxes. Am I confused as to what is meant y "instant offer"?
I think if you read the CoinWeek interview cited above you'll get most of these answers. If you click on the spreadsheet link in the interview, you'll get far more.
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And yet, while their marketing implies otherwise, this is exactly all they are guaranteeing in their Term and Conditions:
"Buyer acknowledges and agrees that there is substantial value in both the limited edition NGCX-graded VaultBox coins and the Instant Offer Guaranty. Buyer acknowledges and agrees that the value of these limited edition VaultBox coins exceeds the market price for the coins themselves."
"VaultBox does not guarantee that it’s instant offers for any given coin will equal or exceed any itemized portion of the VaultBox purchase price. VaultBox does not guarantee that it’s instant offers for any given coin will equal or exceed the value of said coin at the time of purchase of a VaultBox box."
Basically, they are making you acknowledge that you are paying above market for the box, because the box and label have substantial inherent value, AND, that the buy back offer could be below market for the coin itself, let alone below the alleged increased value imparted by the box and label.
While the folks behind this are reputable, it feels kind of scammy. They are trying to jump start a way to collect blind, where the value is in what you don't know. They only way for it to work for them is to sell for a premium to the cost of the coins, packaging, grading, marketing, etc.
If it takes off, great. Everyone wins, and unopened boxes will trade at a premium to the issue price. If not, the buyers will be the losers, and the buy back will be WORTHLESS, since anyone can always sell anything below market, which is all they are promising. That's really not market making. It's more like exploitation of people who don't know any better.
At the end of the day, these are not Dawn and Dusk labels created by the mint itself. No coin in the box, once the box is opened, will command an after market premium because it was once in the box. They are selling the expectation that they will be, but that is not what they promise in the fine print of their Instant Offer guarantee.
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With all due respect, if you read their Terms and take them at face value, while it is true that they are not guaranteeing a low ball offer, they are forcing you to acknowledge both that the coins have an above market value by virtue of their packaging and label, AND that their Instant Offer could be below not only the enhanced value of the coin, but even below the non-enhanced value of the coin, both at the time of sale and at the time of the offer.
Basically, they are only guaranteeing that they will make an offer. Not that it will be at FMV at any point in time. Of course, if silver goes to $10,000 an ounce and gold goes to $50,000 per ounce, all boxes will be winners. That's not the point.
The point is, once you strip away all of the BS, they are disclosing that the boxes will be sold at at premium to their collective value, kind of like lottery tickets that pay back $0.50 for every $1.00 in sales. Yes, there will be winners, but the pool as a whole will lose, which is how governments make money off the lottery.
Same thing here, and they are fully disclosing it, albeit in fine print buried in their Terms and Conditions. The coins are being sold at a premium because one person out of 800 is going to get $20K+ for $600, and several other people will receive more than $600 from their boxes. OTOH, Instant Offers are not guaranteed to even be at FMV, taking away potential premium attributed to the label.
There will, of course, be no premium attached to an unsealed box once the seal is broken. Like the lottery, the pool as a whole will lose bigly, because the costs of grading, packaging, marketing and profit to the marketer must be covered by proceeds from the sale. I do know that, once opened, no coin in the box will sell at a premium because someone put it in a sealed box before someone else took it out. NGCX VaultBox labels will have exactly the same after market premium Mike Mezack strictly limited edition HSN labels do. Zero.
First strike means something to some people because it means the coin was not cracked out and resubmitted. Others maybe collect signatures. The value here is in the lottery. Not in a red label from a TPG selling to the trading card card crowd. Baseball cards busted out of a special sealed lottery box don't sell at a premium to baseball cards taken from another package.
You're right, maybe a premium for the label will develop, but VaultBox is not only not guaranteeing that, they are expressly disclaiming it by making clear that their buy back might not even be at FMV for the coin without the label.
The only way these could potentially retain a premium will be if they trade unopened in a secondary market, which seems HIGHLY unlikely since we all have access to the spreadsheet and can readily calculate the expected value of a box, which will undoubtedly be FAR below $600. They are already a rip off at $600, given that VaultBox is making money selling at that price after all of their expenses in bringing them to market. It would be truly unbelievable if people would pay even more than that on a secondary market for a shot at $20K+ with an expected value of less than $300-400, even after taking the $20K into account.
I would be worried about the secondary market for unopened boxes in a scenario where people post themselves unboxing the 2020 V75 eagle or other key coins that ends up lowering the probabilistic value of what you have in all the remaining sealed boxes.
Agreed. What would be even more dangerous would be no one disclosing that they pulled the coin, while the coin was indeed discovered. That could cause people to chase a coin that does not exist. Another reason I'd NEVER touch these after they leave VaultBox's vault.
But, even if that does not happen, it's going to be difficult justifying selling these above issue price when the secondary seller will have none of the costs that VaultBox does in putting these together. The only hope is the greater fool theory, and that always ends in pain when the bubble bursts, assuming one even develops here.
Assuming a generous minimum expected value of $300, do you think it's a good gamble to pay $300 (the difference between the $600 price and the assumed $300 minimum value) for a 1 in 800 chance at $20K, and maybe a 1 in 10 chance at something else? Sounds like a TERRIBLE expected return to me. Basically a 90% chance of losing $300 and a 10% of losing less, or making up to a few thousand, with a 0.125% chance to make $20K.
Collectors can justify paying a spread above wholesale for coins they want for their collection, since dealers need to be allowed to make a profit in order for a viable industry to exist. Buying blind, OTOH, is simple gambling, even though everyone will end up with something of value.
As a result, the proper value of opened boxes is going to be what the gambler can sell the coins for (wholesale), and not the retail price they'd pay, since, presumably, people will not be paying $600 to build a collection of bullion, burnished and proof ASEs in VaultBox labels they could buy for a fraction of the cost. They are buying the boxes for a shot at getting a valuable coin, gold, platinum or palladium, in which case they cannot monetize their win without selling.
Or, maybe they hope a market will develop where they can sell an unopened box to a greater fool. I'm sorry, but I don't see the fun in buying a scratch off with an expected value of one-half what I pay for it. Same with a scratch off box of coins, even as a coin collector.
This is not a form of coin collecting. This is gambling, with VaultBox as the house, with a take that would cause any regulator to shut down any licensed casino for stealing from its customers. What's even crazier is that it's all fully disclosed. Unfortunately, most people are too lazy to find the disclosure, or too uninformed to understand it.
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Anybody hear of VaultBox?
I am guessing that a few more have heard of it now versus when the OP initially asked.
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Actually, that's not true. Investment disclosures state that markets go up and down, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Brokers don't make markets, but an investor can always sell at the then current market to a market maker. Bonds are in more of a grey area, since there is no national transparent market for debt, and you can actually get screwed by your broker. I'm not sure what banks have to do with anything, since anything they do is fully disclosed, and they can also screw customers through disclosures, just like what is happening here.
Unlike CAC, stock brokers work in a regulated market, and have a fiduciary duty to get a seller the highest price at the time of sale. Just Google "Best Execution." Here, VaultBox is making no such guarantee. They are disclosing that they are selling above the current FMV, because they are attributing value to the sealed box and the label.
They are promising to make a buy back offer, but are stating that the offer could be below even the current price without the label, and below any future market without the label. They are promising nothing, since their offer could literally be $0.01 for the AGE with the privy mark.
It goes far beyond merely saying the buy price will be below the sell price. They are also saying the buy price could be an unlimited amount below everyone else's buy price. Which means it has no value at all, so should not be used to partially justify a premium in their sell price.
It's not proof of a low ball offer. It's proof that their offer might be worthless, since anyone could sell any coin below market if they are desperate, and there is no floor on what they might offer, although there is a significant premium when they sell. Part of that premium is attributable to their promise of an Instant Offer, which, upon close inspection, is actually worth nothing.
The more I think about this, the more I think it is really about getting as many NGCX slabs out in the market as quickly as possible.
I am a newer collector (started April 2020), and I primarily focus on U.S. Half Cents and Type Coins. Early copper is my favorite.
Why? It represents 2400 slabs. Why would that make a difference to NGC? I'm sure Mike Mezack moved more than that in 5 minutes on HSN.
Sometimes the obvious answer is the correct one. This is about the folks behind it trying to replicate what the card companies do with respect to the gambling aspect of seeding sealed boxes with winning lottery tickets, in order to try to attract young gamblers to the hobby while making a pretty penny.
I honestly don't see it, because the economics are skewed very much against the buyers, but, who knows? I also don't understand why people who have a difficult time making ends meet each month buy lottery tickets, week after week, when they can see that the dream of a carefree life they are being sold is a fiction that serves no purpose other than to impose a regressive tax on them to avoid raising tax rates for everyone else.