@pruebas said:
Don’t forget that Vault Box will be subject to sales tax in most states, even those with sales tax exemptions on coins or bullion.
You are not buying coins or bullion. You are buying a Vault Box, which is not exempt.
Immediate 6-10% loss.
Where are you getting that from? The VaultBox absolutely is a box of slabbed coins, which would have the same exemption as any other box of slabbed coins. My understanding is that bullion is strictly unslabbed coins whose value is derived from the metal.
Even a slabbed 2023 MS 69 ASE that sells for $59 can claim to be something other than a raw ASE that sells for $30, and would be eligible for a tax exemption if bought in sufficient quantities.
From their Terms and Conditions:
"Sales Tax. California residents will be charged sales tax. Please note that the purchase of coins and/or bullion with a price in excess of One Thousand, Five Hundred Dollars ($1,500.00) is exempt from California sales tax. This $1,500.00 rule only applies to coins appearing on the same invoice and does not apply to catalogs, numismatic accessories or membership fees. Residents of states other than California should consult their tax advisor as to the applicability of sales and use tax in their states. International Clients: Duties may be assessed by your country’s customs office and are the sole responsibility of the Buyer."
Looks like they are only going to be collecting tax in CA, and only because the invoices will be under $1500, not because VaultBoxes do not qualify as coins or bullion.
Correct about the minimum qualifying amounts (unless you buy 2-3).
But I suspect you would loose the argument to the taxing authorities that the actual product is a coin. You are buying a derivative product that happens to be composed of coins.
And I further expect that VB will not want to waste money testing that theory in every state court, so they will just charge the tax.
But they are NOT!! Since they are limiting sales to 2 per address, there is no argument in CA.
And they explicitly tell everyone they are responsible for their own tax compliance. They are only collecting tax in CA.
They aren't testing anything, and aren't charging anything. And taxing authorities are not tracking down individual consumers to argue about $40-50 in sales tax that might or might not be due, depending on a legal argument on whether the $600 is for precious metal coins (it is) or a sealed plastic box (it is not, even though that box is why the coins are selling for $600 rather than an indeterminate amount less).
Doesn't change the fact that what's inside the box is coins. Sales tax exemptions are based on what's inside of a package rather than the package itself, no matter how expensive that package might be. You might have an argument with a piece of jewelry, where the coin constitutes an insignificant percentage of the value of the piece, but not here, where all of the value is in the coins, not the box. After all, it's not the box, but the seal on the box, that justifies the premium, and that's due to the chance to pull a valuable COIN, not wrapper.
Fascinating point, but irrelevant in the real world. The vast majority of people buying will likely buried in these regardless. The fact that people in CA will be buried up to $60 more isn't going to stop anyone. The fact that they are going to be tax free in the other 49 states, unless someone wants to voluntarily pay a use tax (unless there is a coin exemption for a $600 or $1200 purchase), is not going to turn these into the buy of the century in those jurisdictions.
@tincup said:
" How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman? "
My post was not worded very well. Was quickly typed out while on the road.
The thought is... the middleman is you and me... more specifically those who will buy the 'box and immediately post on ebay. If they end up at $950.... that is a decent profit going to the 'middleman'. That could very well be captured by VaultBox themselves by listing.
But of course... as mentioned... that is more hassle, time, etc. and risk. I'm sure VaultBox probably looked at different venues, methods, etc. And decided the simple "one and done" is the best way to go. Sell out the offering, let others take the risk, and move on to the next offering.
And of course... there is still questions on the legal aspects, etc. Is it a lottery?
It was just a quick thought when I was on the road. And when I say " the middleman is you and me ", that is just a way of saying those who want to make a flip, or like to gamble on something like this. The "middleman" is the person who is hoping to get that $23,000 coin and is likely to immediately sell back or flip on ebay.
Will be interesting, how ever it turns out. But yes.... not for me.
I don't think that's how they foresee this unfolding. Most people are supposed to want to open the box not try to flip it sealed.
@tincup said:
" How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman? "
My post was not worded very well. Was quickly typed out while on the road.
The thought is... the middleman is you and me... more specifically those who will buy the 'box and immediately post on ebay. If they end up at $950.... that is a decent profit going to the 'middleman'. That could very well be captured by VaultBox themselves by listing.
But of course... as mentioned... that is more hassle, time, etc. and risk. I'm sure VaultBox probably looked at different venues, methods, etc. And decided the simple "one and done" is the best way to go. Sell out the offering, let others take the risk, and move on to the next offering.
And of course... there is still questions on the legal aspects, etc. Is it a lottery?
It was just a quick thought when I was on the road. And when I say " the middleman is you and me ", that is just a way of saying those who want to make a flip, or like to gamble on something like this. The "middleman" is the person who is hoping to get that $23,000 coin and is likely to immediately sell back or flip on ebay.
Will be interesting, how ever it turns out. But yes.... not for me.
I don't think that's how they foresee this unfolding. Most people are supposed to want to open the box not try to flip it sealed.
Yet I’ll bet that’s exactly what happens.
Maybe, but that will make no economic sense. It will be like flipping lottery tickets. Their expected value is less than the purchase price at issuance. Why would anyone be willing to pay a bigger premium on top of that, just because they are sold out?
Lots of excitement now, because these guys have admittedly done a nice job packaging it, and a masterful job hyping it and building anticipation, at least among us. I have no way to gauge the reception in their intended market, but just have a feeling that the excitement will die down quickly once people start busting these open and posting the results.
Unlike a gazillion years ago, the internet now provides instant transparency to everything. I think the secondary market for sealed boxes might evaporate once people start seeing they mostly contain 3 slabbed bullion coins that they wouldn't be interested in buying at half the selling price of the sealed boxes.
I admit. I haven't read ALL the posts on this thread. What I'm about to post, probably was mentioned? However, I'm going to guess, when these are officially out to sell, January 25. These will sell out in
hours, maybe quicker?
By saying this, the 800 boxes will all be out!
My point.
Thus, the first series will be complete already.
So, who knows what the second series will bring?
All the NEW prizes will be even more exciting than the first.
Maybe some classics?
1909s VDB
1955 DD Cent
Three Legged Buffalo
9.9 Morgan Dollar
Just thinking ahead.
Thanks
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
@joeykoins said:
I admit. I haven't read ALL the posts on this thread. What I'm about to post, probably was mentioned? However, I'm going to guess, when these are officially out to sell, January 25. These will sell out in
hours, maybe quicker?
By saying this, the 800 boxes will all be out!
My point.
Thus, the first series will be complete already.
So, who knows what the second series will bring?
All the NEW prizes will be even more exciting than the first.
Maybe some classics?
1909s VDB
1955 DD Cent
Three Legged Buffalo
ms 68 Morgan Dollar
Just thinking ahead.
Thanks
Maybe, maybe not. I'm sure that's the goal, but what if you build it and they don't come?
A website crash and a sellout in minutes or hours will surely generate subsequent series. They talked about Morgans in the video.
But what if these sit for weeks, and YouTube videos start going out showing coins that can be had every day on eBay for a fraction of the $600 paid? If they are smart, and they don't immediately sell out, they should probably consider not shipping until they do. If for no other reason than to preserve the mystery until all boxes have left the warehouse, even though they already stoked the fire by allowing someone to post a video showing a one ounce proof gold eagle being pulled.
This is an interesting concept, but it remains to be seen if there is a market for it in our neck of the woods. Maybe there is a good reason it hasn't been tried before.
As someone else mentioned, Comic-Con draws HUGE crowds who pay around $75 a day to attend, and they SELL OUT. Coin shows draw a fraction of the interest at a fraction of the cost, or free. You can't just take something that works in one hobby, like card collecting, and migrate it over to another. Different demographics.
It's pretty clear that it would take a long, long time to sell out if marketing was limited to Coin World, ANA membership, and this forum. I'm sure they expect to have better luck on YouTube and the card collecting community.
We'll see, but I wouldn't take it for granted that it will be a one hour sell-out, just because they have limited sales to 2 per household and they posted a few videos ooohing and aaahing over the great value in every box. This might be a real sign of a desire to achieve wide distribution in the face of overwhelming demand, as they claim.
It could also be a clever ploy to stoke demand by creating an illusion they will be difficult to obtain. Since they only have 800 to sell, if you visit their website when they go on sale and are able to make it to check out with no issues, then it's not going to be like trying to buy a limited issue from the Mint, and probably not worth chasing if you are in it for a flip.
@joeykoins said:
I admit. I haven't read ALL the posts on this thread. What I'm about to post, probably was mentioned? However, I'm going to guess, when these are officially out to sell, January 25. These will sell out in
hours, maybe quicker?
By saying this, the 800 boxes will all be out!
My point.
Thus, the first series will be complete already.
So, who knows what the second series will bring?
All the NEW prizes will be even more exciting than the first.
Maybe some classics?
1909s VDB
1955 DD Cent
Three Legged Buffalo
ms 68 Morgan Dollar
Just thinking ahead.
Thanks
Maybe, maybe not. I'm sure that's the goal, but what if you build it and they don't come?
Yes, you bring up many good points.
Sure, if this should happen, that it turns out NOT too high-in-demand after all.
Then, it's a whole new ball game.
"We Shall See!"
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.
@joeykoins said:
I admit. I haven't read ALL the posts on this thread. What I'm about to post, probably was mentioned? However, I'm going to guess, when these are officially out to sell, January 25. These will sell out in
hours, maybe quicker?
By saying this, the 800 boxes will all be out!
My point.
Thus, the first series will be complete already.
So, who knows what the second series will bring?
All the NEW prizes will be even more exciting than the first.
Maybe some classics?
1909s VDB
1955 DD Cent
Three Legged Buffalo
ms 68 Morgan Dollar
Just thinking ahead.
Thanks
The NGCX label is limited to 1982 and later coins.
Per NGC FAQ: Modern coins, minted from 1982 to present, qualify for NGCX certification.
@Snaps said:
The NGCX label is limited to 1982 and later coins.
Oh? Thanks
However, Who knows where this will go in the future.
Maybe, NGCX will grade the older ones?
Whether this "VaultBox" works or not.
They may grade older coins with their 10-point scale in the future. That same link shows their 10-point scale grade values. They match up with the 70 point scale. 10.0=70, 9.0=60, 8.8=58, 8.5=55, 8.3=53.......
@Snaps said:
The NGCX label is limited to 1982 and later coins.
Oh? Thanks
However, Who knows where this will go in the future.
Maybe, NGCX will grade the older ones?
Whether this "VaultBox" works or not.
They may grade older coins with their 10-point scale in the future. That same link shows their 10-point scale grade values. They match up with the 70 point scale. 10.0=70, 9.0=60, 8.8=58, 8.5=55, 8.3=53.......
Why wouldn't they if it takes off and is accepted?
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
There is a reason they call it gambling. If this turns out to be anywhere near as lucrative as speculated, insiders will scoop them all up, and very few if any will be available to the general public.
For the record, I don't think that will be the case, and you'll be able to buy as many as you want, using as many proxies as you can gather. This isn't the Mint selling 1,945 coins guaranteed to be worth a big multiple of their purchase price. This is a private company selling lottery tickets with an average expected payout less than 100 cents on the dollar for $620 each, including shipping and insurance. If it was this easy to print money, for either buyers or the seller, someone would have figured it out before now.
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
Hobbies are supposed to be fun and relaxing!😎
Which hobby? Numismatics, or gambling?
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
Hobbies are supposed to be fun and relaxing!😎
Which hobby? Numismatics, or gambling?
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
I think you should add debating members "ad nauseam" to your list of stressers that you can discuss at your addiction anonymous meeting🙄
We get it...you don't like VaultBox. Enough already. You have a right to your opinion but so do others that disagree with you.
How we choose to spend OUR money is our business not yours!
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
Hobbies are supposed to be fun and relaxing!😎
Which hobby? Numismatics, or gambling?
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
I think you should add debating members "ad nauseam" to your list of stressers that you can discuss at your addiction anonymous meeting🙄
We get it...you don't like VaultBox. Enough already. You have a right to your opinion but so do others that disagree with you.
How we choose to spend OUR money is our business not yours!
I'll take it under consideration.
I'm expressing an opinion, without insulting anyone or telling anyone how to spend THEIR money.
In the meantime, anyone annoyed by the ad nauseam debate is certainly free to ignore it rather than participate in it.
" Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂 "
WQuarterFreddie you really got a lol out of me from that! Because the temptation is certainly there! Intrigued... but have learned through the years to stay away this sort of thing, not that good at gambling. So pretty sure I will not participate (well... 90% sure! Maybe if my lottery ticket pays off I will put the proceeds into VaultBox lol )
They may grade older coins with their 10-point scale in the future. That same link shows their 10-point scale grade values. They match up with the 70 point scale. 10.0=70, 9.0=60, 8.8=58, 8.5=55, 8.3=53.......
FWIW, it is not a perfect 1:1 match. It can't be. The Sheldon scale has 30 distinct grades (70, 69, 68, ...). And the NGCX scale only has 29 distinct grades (10.0, 9.9, 9.8, ...).
They may grade older coins with their 10-point scale in the future. That same link shows their 10-point scale grade values. They match up with the 70 point scale. 10.0=70, 9.0=60, 8.8=58, 8.5=55, 8.3=53.......
FWIW, it is not a perfect 1:1 match. It can't be. The Sheldon scale has 30 distinct grades (70, 69, 68, ...). And the NGCX scale only has 29 distinct grades (10.0, 9.9, 9.8, ...).
Interesting point, but it really seems like a distinction without a difference in 99.99% of cases. 29 grades vs. 30.
In the real world, what is the premium for a 61 over a 60? For post 1982 coins?
The vast majority of all coins they touch, at least now, will be 9.9 or 10.0, so who in their target demo is going to notice, or care, that a 9.0 might actually be an under graded 61 or an over graded 60?
I'll be honest -- I read the descriptions, and it's not clear what the difference is between a 9.0 and a 9.1 ("more or larger abrasions" vs. ""and/or multiple large abrasions"). Either could be a 60 or a 61.
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
In terms of gambling, that goes on with numismatic purchases on a daily basis so I am not sure what the issue is here. Multiple ways on how to game and gamble to try to make money on a numismatic purchase - cross, crackout, upgrade, promote, bean, cherry pick, for which many of us on these boards do and let us know about it regularly......... And all of those gambles don't always succeed in making money. So?
Thus, the Vault Box, in its own way, is no different than a lot of what goes on in the buisness of buying and selling coins and goes on independently from the old fashioned idea of building a collection.
Personally, It think it is a brilliant marketing plan and bet they are going to succeed with this.
I predict they will be gone in less than 30 minutes and maybe even faster if their website doesn't freeze up.
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
In terms of gambling, that goes on with numismatic purchases on a daily basis so I am not sure what the issue is here. Multiple ways on how to game and gamble to try to make money on a numismatic purchase - cross, crackout, upgrade, promote, bean, cherry pick, for which many of us on these boards do and let us know about it regularly......... And all of those gambles don't always succeed in making money. So?
Thus, the Vault Box, in its own way, is no different than a lot of what goes on in the buisness of buying and selling coins and goes on independently from the old fashioned idea of building a collection.
Personally, It think it is a brilliant marketing plan and bet they are going to succeed with this.
I predict they will be gone in less than 30 minutes and maybe even faster if their website doesn't freeze up.
It absolutely is brilliant marketing, and the people behind it have a lot of credibility. I lack the insight to make a prediction on success or failure. Based on what I do know, however, I can make a compelling argument either way.
All I know is that I have seen plenty of brilliant people in this industry come up with plenty of brilliant ideas that, for one reason or another, did not catch on. The fact that no one has ever attempted this before, at least not at this scale with this level of sophistication, does not mean it cannot succeed. But it is an indication that it will be a lot more difficult than it appears from the outside looking in. We'll see!
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
@MasonG said:
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
Just sayin'.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
Interesting point, but it really seems like a distinction without a difference in 99.99% of cases. 29 grades vs. 30.
In the real world, what is the premium for a 61 over a 60? For post 1982 coins?
The vast majority of all coins they touch, at least now, will be 9.9 or 10.0, so who in their target demo is going to notice, or care, that a 9.0 might actually be an under graded 61 or an over graded 60?
I'll be honest -- I read the descriptions, and it's not clear what the difference is between a 9.0 and a 9.1 ("more or larger abrasions" vs. ""and/or multiple large abrasions"). Either could be a 60 or a 61.
Thanks for the feedback.
I recently compared all of the grade descriptions, and there appears to be three separate anomalies (i.e., a Sheldon grade w/o a corresponding NGCX grade, or vice versa).
You make a valid point about the financial impact, or lack thereof. That said, at least for me, it is more about having a clear equivalency between the two scales. IMHO, a 1:1 match would serve to facilitate the 'introduction/acceptance' of the new scale.
FWIW, in my 'analysis/comparison', NGCX 9.1 matched with Sheldon 62.
Note - it is easier to compare the descriptions in context, because some of the descriptions are essentially exact matches, and serve as 'anchor points'. For example, NGCX 9.4 and Sheldon 65 (i.e., "A well struck coin with moderate marks or hairlines" vs. "Well struck with moderate marks or hairlines").
@MasonG said:
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
Just sayin'.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
"Unregulated gambling vehicle"? Heh.
Seems pretty clear you're in the "That's not who we are, and what's wrong with just keeping on doing things the way we have been doing them?" camp.
Interesting point, but it really seems like a distinction without a difference in 99.99% of cases. 29 grades vs. 30.
In the real world, what is the premium for a 61 over a 60? For post 1982 coins?
The vast majority of all coins they touch, at least now, will be 9.9 or 10.0, so who in their target demo is going to notice, or care, that a 9.0 might actually be an under graded 61 or an over graded 60?
I'll be honest -- I read the descriptions, and it's not clear what the difference is between a 9.0 and a 9.1 ("more or larger abrasions" vs. ""and/or multiple large abrasions"). Either could be a 60 or a 61.
Thanks for the feedback.
I recently compared all of the grade descriptions, and there appears to be three separate anomalies (i.e., a Sheldon grade w/o a corresponding NGCX grade, or vice versa).
You make a valid point about the financial impact, or lack thereof. That said, at least for me, it is more about having a clear equivalency between the two scales. IMHO, a 1:1 match would serve to facilitate the 'introduction/acceptance' of the new scale.
FWIW, in my 'analysis/comparison', NGCX 9.1 matched with Sheldon 62.
Note - it is easier to compare the descriptions in context, because some of the descriptions are essentially exact matches, and serve as 'anchor points'. For example, NGCX 9.4 and Sheldon 65 (i.e., "A well struck coin with moderate marks or hairlines" vs. "Well struck with moderate marks or hairlines").
Your observations are spot on. They apparently made an effort to be consistent, but did not map perfectly 1:1. If they did, all of the descriptions would be copies, and they'd have mapped 29 descriptions from Sheldon to NGCX while dropping one.
@MasonG said:
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
Just sayin'.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
"Unregulated gambling vehicle"? Heh.
Seems pretty clear you're in the "That's not who we are, and what's wrong with just keeping on doing things the way we have been doing them?" camp.
No, not really. I have no problem with outreach, or with trying to cultivate a next generation. I also have no problem with gambling. The issue is, when left unregulated, you end up with a FTX situation.
They really are running a lottery, with coins as a cover, and they answer to no one. These boxes contain around $300 worth of coins and a $300 lottery ticket, with a payout that could range from $0 to $23,000. Their disclosures are great, and very extensive, but, at the end of the day, who do they answer to, and who is watching over them?
The only guaranteed winner if these sell out is going to be them, and buyers are guaranteed to lose 5-10%, at their inflated values. A few will win big. Most will lose, probably around 50%.
Highly unlikely that most who play will understand this, even though it is all fully disclosed. So, no, I am not a fan of something like this being the means to cultivate the next generation. Because I have issues with unregulated investments or lotteries, and because I just don't think it's going to work once the novelty wears off and people see the financial results.
I thought Blake did a great job in the video. He came across as very sincere and transparent. And then PWCC pulled a one ounce gold proof in an effort to show everyone how easy it is to make a score, and the alarms are still ringing in my head.
@NJCoin said:
No, not really. I have no problem with outreach, or with trying to cultivate a next generation. I also have no problem with gambling. The issue is, when left unregulated, you end up with a FTX situation.
Are you claiming the VaultBox people are stealing money from people? Because that's the "FTX situation".
@NJCoin said:
No, not really. I have no problem with outreach, or with trying to cultivate a next generation. I also have no problem with gambling. The issue is, when left unregulated, you end up with a FTX situation.
Are you claiming the VaultBox people are stealing money from people? Because that's the "FTX situation".
No. I'm claiming that FTX was unregulated, and they were able to do whatever they wanted, and what they wanted to do was speculate with their customers' deposits.
I have no idea what the VaultBox people are doing, other than that they released at least one box to PWCC before the public release, and it just so happened to be one of the most valuable of all 800 boxes. This isn't just a sale of overpriced bullion. It's also a lottery, no matter what they call it.
Is the distribution subject to any 3rd party oversight or audit, like the packing and sealing by NGC was? No. Will insiders have access to the sale? Probably. Who is overseeing distribution? No idea.
If this was regulated, nothing would have been released to anyone before the public release. Insiders wouldn't be allowed to participate, similar to the way casino employees are not allowed to play in their casino. Storage and access to the boxes would be overseen by an independent third party, like the packing was. They wouldn't be promoting it by busting open winners on YouTube before the on sale date.
I have no idea what is going on, and neither does anyone else. Everything could be on the up and up, PWCC could have just gotten lucky, etc., etc., etc. OR, PWCC got a big winner by design in order to promote the offering, all of the other good boxes could go to insiders, and the public could be left with the crap.
No regulation. No oversight. Absolutely no way to know one way or the other.
@MasonG said:
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
Just sayin'.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
Are you referring to the US Mint?
Nope. They don't sell mystery boxes. They are just incompetent when it comes to managing hot releases, but I am quite certain PWCC is not able to pre-buy and show off hot new releases before the public on sale date.
And yes, I understand big bulk buyers get an allocation of most things before everyone else, but even they don't get early or preferential access to the REALLY good stuff, which is how they turn out to be such lucrative flips.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
Er, repeat - crackout, cross, bean, upgrade, cherry pick, all a gamble to try to make a coin more valuable. Apparently Vault Box is not allowed to play the game as well?
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
Er, repeat - crackout, cross, bean, upgrade, cherry pick, all a gamble to try to make a coin more valuable. Apparently Vault Box is not allowed to play the game as well?
Of course they are. I'm pretty sure it's all quite legal. So was FTX. So much so, they paid over $100 million to name the arena where the Miami Heat play. Very, extremely legit. At least until it turned out that it wasn't. I'm just saying I don't have a Coinbase account, don't trade crypto, don't mess around with unregistered investments, or gamble in unlicensed gaming establishments.
I was very impressed with the interview Blake gave. Very much less so with the PWCC unboxing. They made a big deal showing off all the steps they took to ensure the boxes were packed in an independent, unbiased manner by a reputable third party.
Where are those boxes now? Who has access to them? Why did PWCC get at least one before anyone else? Who else has early access? Who will decide who will get which boxes? Will insiders have access? Lots of potential conflicts here. No one owes anyone any answers to any of these questions, because this enterprise is unregulated.
VaultBox is certainly allowed to play, and anyone who wants to is allowed to sit across the table and take the other side. But the only risk VaultBox has here is that the boxes will not sell. All the risk is on the buyers. Especially if they will never have a real shot at the good boxes.
Even if they do, as was said before, this is going to be a big loser for most people. Which is why, even if the game turns out to have been rigged, people will never know. Which is why I think third party oversight from beginning to end is crucial. And, as PWCC has already demonstrated, it is absent, although, to be fair, it was never promised.
This is nothing like the crack out game. A better analogy would be if senior executives at the TPGs were making the crack out submissions, and if the graders knew that before they graded the coins.
The TPGs go to great lengths to disclose how grading works. VaultBox made a lot of disclosures about how boxes were packed, and how sales will be conducted, but not about how distribution will be made, or to who. Or how some people have access before others, and how they happened to pull at least one big winner, and to promote that to the rest of the world before the on sale date.
I would love to get one. The video I seen, when the box was opened 2 silver Eagles and 1 gold Eagle that was valued at $ 3000. At least that what the man in the video stated. Nevertheless 599 for over 3k is a win in my book.
Of course they are. I'm pretty sure it's all quite legal. So was FTX. So much so, they paid over $100 million to name the arena where the Miami Heat play. Very, extremely legit. At least until it turned out that it wasn't. I'm just saying I don't have a Coinbase account, don't trade crypto, don't mess around with unregistered investments, or gamble in unlicensed gaming establishments.
I was very impressed with the interview Blake gave. Very much less so with the PWCC unboxing. They made a big deal showing off all the steps they took to ensure the boxes were packed in an independent, unbiased manner by a reputable third party.
Where are those boxes now? Who has access to them? Why did PWCC get at least one before anyone else? Who else has early access? Who will decide who will get which boxes? Will insiders have access? Lots of potential conflicts here. No one owes anyone any answers to any of these questions, because this enterprise is unregulated.
VaultBox is certainly allowed to play, and anyone who wants to is allowed to sit across the table and take the other side. But the only risk VaultBox has here is that the boxes will not sell. All the risk is on the buyers. Especially if they will never have a real shot at the good boxes.
Even if they do, as was said before, this is going to be a big loser for most people. Which is why, even if the game turns out to have been rigged, people will never know. Which is why I think third party oversight from beginning to end is crucial. And, as PWCC has already demonstrated, it is absent, although, to be fair, it was never promised.
This is nothing like the crack out game. A better analogy would be if senior executives at the TPGs were making the crack out submissions, and if the graders knew that before they graded the coins.
The TPGs go to great lengths to disclose how grading works. VaultBox made a lot of disclosures about how boxes were packed, and how sales will be conducted, but not about how distribution will be made, or to who. Or how some people have access before others, and how they happened to pull at least one big winner, and to promote that to the rest of the world before the on sale date.
There will be more losers than winners, nobody starts a business to lose money or break even. I predict that a lot of participants will be back here saying what a scam it was.
To me, the very premise of the business is flawed. They claim to be "bringing the fun of the hunt back into collecting". But coin collecting already has the "fun of the hunt" hard-coded into it, which is manifested in numerous ways:
- Coin roll hunting, and even just finding coins in change
- Cherry-picking
- The crackout game, and the TPG submission game more generally
- CAC and similar derivatives
- Mint lotteries for limited releases
- Auctions
- Ancient coin cleaning
- Raffles and door prizes at coin club meetings
Coin collecting is all about the "thrill of the hunt" already; some speculate that it is such a male-dominated hobby precisely because of that stereotypically male-trait "hunter-gatherer mindset" you need to have to "succeed" at coin collecting. I don't really think it needs an extra, synthetic layer of treasure-hunting-for-a-fee added to it. And while I totally agree with the "it's my money I can waste it if I want to" mindset, I am more concerned with the bigger picture: the future of the hobby and the "new collectors" this gimmick might attract, only for them to be put off coin collecting entirely if the gamble doesn't pay out.
Coin collecting suffers enough from the slick, gimmicky, not-aimed-at-coin-collectors marketeering from mobs like govmint.com. I can't really see this new gimmick as actually helping the hobby as a whole.
Waste no more time arguing what a good man should be. Be one. Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
@tincup said:
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
Hobbies are supposed to be fun and relaxing!😎
Which hobby? Numismatics, or gambling?
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
I think you should add debating members "ad nauseam" to your list of stressers that you can discuss at your addiction anonymous meeting🙄
We get it...you don't like VaultBox. Enough already. You have a right to your opinion but so do others that disagree with you.
How we choose to spend OUR money is our business not yours!
I'll take it under consideration.
I'm expressing an opinion, without insulting anyone or telling anyone how to spend THEIR money.
In the meantime, anyone annoyed by the ad nauseam debate is certainly free to ignore it rather than participate in it.
@NJCoin said:
No regulation. No oversight. Absolutely no way to know one way or the other.
That's what I'm saying.
So you're not buying one, then?
Absolutely not!!! And, I'll admit I was tempted. Especially after Blake said they were working on very thin margins, not including marketing expenses, to build excitement and momentum. And then I saw that unboxing video and I came to my senses.
(First post, new member, long time lurker observer)
I'm new to hardcore collecting, but a seasoned statistician. I've been "collecting" for some 20+ years, but a very niche focus. Recently, I've started to venture out into new areas now that I've filled my niche (almost) completely. So I saw that VaultBox email come in... looked at the CoinWeek article and their video... and thought to myself... "oh, I'm all over this!" Not from the collector perspective, but from the statistics and probability side! Then I'll decide if I will buy one.
TLDR version: Nope. I don't think I will. But I'm also not one to get a rush from scratch-offs or mega-milions either, in fact they make me queasy, so there's that. If you're a collector that also likes to play the lottery... this is actually still much better odds than the lottery, even beyond the fact you will "win" "$255" with your single $596 scratch-off.
Specific coins in the boxes and the collecting aspects aside, this is what I came up with as the reason I would sit it out. Yeah, there will be somewhere around 136 to 272 boxes that provide return on investment (depending on what valuation you really consider), and a handful that will greatly return on investment, but that's too "unlikely" for my blood.
Geeky side note: I took the listing of coins in each set (common, uncommon, and rare) and unpacked it into a true listing of each of the 800 coins (1 row per coin). Then ran a vector combination of those three sets to get every possible combination of how a single box could be "randomly" assembled -- (800^3) or 512 million rows of data -- and calculated the value of each of those potential boxes.
The following table has the proportion of the 512M box combinations that would provide a return on investment, at 100% of the NGC listed value, at 90%, 80% and 70% (for those of us that pad those for what we would actually consider the market value.
So, at say 80% of the value listed by NGC, there were 21.3% of the combinations that resulted in a box worth over $596. If you consider each combination as having an equal chance of becoming a box, that would approximate 170 profitable boxes out of the 800. If you take NGC values at their word, there would be around 272 profitable boxes.
Adj Value
ROI
% Vector
N Vector
Avg $ Adj
100%
YES
34.0%
174,193,580
1314
NO
66.0%
337,806,420
419
90%
YES
26.7%
136859940
1352
NO
73.3%
375140060
395
80%
YES
21.3%
108981490
1365
NO
78.7%
403018510
366
70%
YES
17.1%
87425560
1352
NO
82.9%
424574440
332
I tried to calculate the most common box values (mode) in the ROI groups and upper bounds of what could be commonly found as profitable (such as excluding the outlier high dollar coins), but my home computer couldn't handle working that out over 512M records and I can't justify pointing one of our powerful ones on it for a curiosity.
So the Mint blew it with the v75 and so its OK to create another feeding frenzy?
Look I am in the market for the long term I do not want to see moderns or classics marketed this way. It's an unforced error by the firm, long time participant or not.
People will feel burned at some point, in the reselling or the initial purchase price, that is never a good thing.
There is a reason collectible watches or jewelry or art is not marketed this way.
Do not compare it to sportscards which can be stamped out like so many Pringles.
We are in a hobby where state of the art manufacturing and design of precious metal products that are perpetually intrinsic are treasured for generations. Let's treat it that way.
Comments
But they are NOT!! Since they are limiting sales to 2 per address, there is no argument in CA.
And they explicitly tell everyone they are responsible for their own tax compliance. They are only collecting tax in CA.
They aren't testing anything, and aren't charging anything. And taxing authorities are not tracking down individual consumers to argue about $40-50 in sales tax that might or might not be due, depending on a legal argument on whether the $600 is for precious metal coins (it is) or a sealed plastic box (it is not, even though that box is why the coins are selling for $600 rather than an indeterminate amount less).
Doesn't change the fact that what's inside the box is coins. Sales tax exemptions are based on what's inside of a package rather than the package itself, no matter how expensive that package might be. You might have an argument with a piece of jewelry, where the coin constitutes an insignificant percentage of the value of the piece, but not here, where all of the value is in the coins, not the box. After all, it's not the box, but the seal on the box, that justifies the premium, and that's due to the chance to pull a valuable COIN, not wrapper.
Fascinating point, but irrelevant in the real world. The vast majority of people buying will likely buried in these regardless. The fact that people in CA will be buried up to $60 more isn't going to stop anyone. The fact that they are going to be tax free in the other 49 states, unless someone wants to voluntarily pay a use tax (unless there is a coin exemption for a $600 or $1200 purchase), is not going to turn these into the buy of the century in those jurisdictions.
Yet I’ll bet that’s exactly what happens.
Maybe, but that will make no economic sense. It will be like flipping lottery tickets. Their expected value is less than the purchase price at issuance. Why would anyone be willing to pay a bigger premium on top of that, just because they are sold out?
Lots of excitement now, because these guys have admittedly done a nice job packaging it, and a masterful job hyping it and building anticipation, at least among us. I have no way to gauge the reception in their intended market, but just have a feeling that the excitement will die down quickly once people start busting these open and posting the results.
Unlike a gazillion years ago, the internet now provides instant transparency to everything. I think the secondary market for sealed boxes might evaporate once people start seeing they mostly contain 3 slabbed bullion coins that they wouldn't be interested in buying at half the selling price of the sealed boxes.
I admit. I haven't read ALL the posts on this thread. What I'm about to post, probably was mentioned? However, I'm going to guess, when these are officially out to sell, January 25. These will sell out in
hours, maybe quicker?
By saying this, the 800 boxes will all be out!
My point.
Thus, the first series will be complete already.
So, who knows what the second series will bring?
All the NEW prizes will be even more exciting than the first.
Maybe some classics?
1909s VDB
1955 DD Cent
Three Legged Buffalo
9.9 Morgan Dollar
Just thinking ahead.
Thanks
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.Maybe, maybe not. I'm sure that's the goal, but what if you build it and they don't come?
A website crash and a sellout in minutes or hours will surely generate subsequent series. They talked about Morgans in the video.
But what if these sit for weeks, and YouTube videos start going out showing coins that can be had every day on eBay for a fraction of the $600 paid? If they are smart, and they don't immediately sell out, they should probably consider not shipping until they do. If for no other reason than to preserve the mystery until all boxes have left the warehouse, even though they already stoked the fire by allowing someone to post a video showing a one ounce proof gold eagle being pulled.
This is an interesting concept, but it remains to be seen if there is a market for it in our neck of the woods. Maybe there is a good reason it hasn't been tried before.
As someone else mentioned, Comic-Con draws HUGE crowds who pay around $75 a day to attend, and they SELL OUT. Coin shows draw a fraction of the interest at a fraction of the cost, or free. You can't just take something that works in one hobby, like card collecting, and migrate it over to another. Different demographics.
It's pretty clear that it would take a long, long time to sell out if marketing was limited to Coin World, ANA membership, and this forum. I'm sure they expect to have better luck on YouTube and the card collecting community.
We'll see, but I wouldn't take it for granted that it will be a one hour sell-out, just because they have limited sales to 2 per household and they posted a few videos ooohing and aaahing over the great value in every box. This might be a real sign of a desire to achieve wide distribution in the face of overwhelming demand, as they claim.
It could also be a clever ploy to stoke demand by creating an illusion they will be difficult to obtain. Since they only have 800 to sell, if you visit their website when they go on sale and are able to make it to check out with no issues, then it's not going to be like trying to buy a limited issue from the Mint, and probably not worth chasing if you are in it for a flip.
Yes, you bring up many good points.
Sure, if this should happen, that it turns out NOT too high-in-demand after all.
Then, it's a whole new ball game.
"We Shall See!"
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.The NGCX label is limited to 1982 and later coins.
Per NGC FAQ: Modern coins, minted from 1982 to present, qualify for NGCX certification.
https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ngcx-10-point-grading-scale/
NGCX coins are also not eligible for any registry sets, yet.
Oh? Thanks
However, Who knows where this will go in the future.
Maybe, NGCX will grade the older ones?
Whether this "VaultBox" works or not.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.They may grade older coins with their 10-point scale in the future. That same link shows their 10-point scale grade values. They match up with the 70 point scale. 10.0=70, 9.0=60, 8.8=58, 8.5=55, 8.3=53.......
Why wouldn't they if it takes off and is accepted?
I suspect.... it will sell out. With a good many purchasing 2 boxes.
Open one box..... to try your luck of the draw. Put the second on ebay for $950 buy it now. If it sells, you got your first box at pretty decent price, and made out well.
Or... if you hit it good when opening the first box... perhaps open the second box.... why not if you already made the profit with the first box! decisions decisions!
Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂
Personally, I like your idea!😉
As Mike Tyson once famously said, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."
This sounds great in theory. Reality could be very different. $300 worth of coins in the first box, and no takers at $950, or even $600, for the second one. If things were this easy, we'd all be sitting on collections that we paid little if anything for.
There is a reason they call it gambling. If this turns out to be anywhere near as lucrative as speculated, insiders will scoop them all up, and very few if any will be available to the general public.
For the record, I don't think that will be the case, and you'll be able to buy as many as you want, using as many proxies as you can gather. This isn't the Mint selling 1,945 coins guaranteed to be worth a big multiple of their purchase price. This is a private company selling lottery tickets with an average expected payout less than 100 cents on the dollar for $620 each, including shipping and insurance. If it was this easy to print money, for either buyers or the seller, someone would have figured it out before now.
Man, some of you are taking this WAY too serious....🙄
Hobbies are supposed to be fun and relaxing!😎
Which hobby? Numismatics, or gambling?
Nothing relaxing about chasing a hot new issue on the Mint's website, or sitting at a poker table in a casino, or pissing away the rent money on an NFL playoff game.
Thoughtfully building a collection, one coin at a time, is another thing altogether. But that's not what this, or who it is being marketed to. Fun and relaxing is the last thing being pitched to people being asked to part with $600 for a mystery box with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 payday, and 4 in 5 shot at receiving several hundred dollars less than $600 in return.
Took a glance at their website but it just didn't spark any interest.
Pocket Change Inspector
I think you should add debating members "ad nauseam" to your list of stressers that you can discuss at your addiction anonymous meeting🙄
We get it...you don't like VaultBox. Enough already. You have a right to your opinion but so do others that disagree with you.
How we choose to spend OUR money is our business not yours!
I'll take it under consideration.
I'm expressing an opinion, without insulting anyone or telling anyone how to spend THEIR money.
In the meantime, anyone annoyed by the ad nauseam debate is certainly free to ignore it rather than participate in it.
" Well we now know that YOU will be buying 2 boxes!🤣😂 "
WQuarterFreddie you really got a lol out of me from that! Because the temptation is certainly there! Intrigued... but have learned through the years to stay away this sort of thing, not that good at gambling. So pretty sure I will not participate (well... 90% sure! Maybe if my lottery ticket pays off I will put the proceeds into VaultBox lol )
FWIW, it is not a perfect 1:1 match. It can't be. The Sheldon scale has 30 distinct grades (70, 69, 68, ...). And the NGCX scale only has 29 distinct grades (10.0, 9.9, 9.8, ...).
Consider NGCX 9.0.
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ngcx-10-point-grading-scale/
The description does not seem to sync with Sheldon 60.
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-grading/grading-scale/
Rather, the description seems to sync with Sheldon 61.
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-grading/grading-scale/
I’d rather invest in an idea from Ricky and julien from trailer park boys than vaultbox
Can’t believe people are still talking about this
Interesting point, but it really seems like a distinction without a difference in 99.99% of cases. 29 grades vs. 30.
In the real world, what is the premium for a 61 over a 60? For post 1982 coins?
The vast majority of all coins they touch, at least now, will be 9.9 or 10.0, so who in their target demo is going to notice, or care, that a 9.0 might actually be an under graded 61 or an over graded 60?
I'll be honest -- I read the descriptions, and it's not clear what the difference is between a 9.0 and a 9.1 ("more or larger abrasions" vs. ""and/or multiple large abrasions"). Either could be a 60 or a 61.
In terms of gambling, that goes on with numismatic purchases on a daily basis so I am not sure what the issue is here. Multiple ways on how to game and gamble to try to make money on a numismatic purchase - cross, crackout, upgrade, promote, bean, cherry pick, for which many of us on these boards do and let us know about it regularly......... And all of those gambles don't always succeed in making money. So?
Thus, the Vault Box, in its own way, is no different than a lot of what goes on in the buisness of buying and selling coins and goes on independently from the old fashioned idea of building a collection.
Personally, It think it is a brilliant marketing plan and bet they are going to succeed with this.
I predict they will be gone in less than 30 minutes and maybe even faster if their website doesn't freeze up.
It absolutely is brilliant marketing, and the people behind it have a lot of credibility. I lack the insight to make a prediction on success or failure. Based on what I do know, however, I can make a compelling argument either way.
All I know is that I have seen plenty of brilliant people in this industry come up with plenty of brilliant ideas that, for one reason or another, did not catch on. The fact that no one has ever attempted this before, at least not at this scale with this level of sophistication, does not mean it cannot succeed. But it is an indication that it will be a lot more difficult than it appears from the outside looking in. We'll see!
There are posts here regularly by those worrying about getting new people involved in coin collecting. Here, we have a company, apparently trying to do so. And the reaction? From some, pitchforks and torches.
Just sayin'.
True. I guess the question is whether an unregulated gambling vehicle is the answer to the hobby's demographic problem.
Thanks for the feedback.
I recently compared all of the grade descriptions, and there appears to be three separate anomalies (i.e., a Sheldon grade w/o a corresponding NGCX grade, or vice versa).
You make a valid point about the financial impact, or lack thereof. That said, at least for me, it is more about having a clear equivalency between the two scales. IMHO, a 1:1 match would serve to facilitate the 'introduction/acceptance' of the new scale.
FWIW, in my 'analysis/comparison', NGCX 9.1 matched with Sheldon 62.
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/specialty-services/ngcx-10-point-grading-scale/
Source: https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-grading/grading-scale/
Note - it is easier to compare the descriptions in context, because some of the descriptions are essentially exact matches, and serve as 'anchor points'. For example, NGCX 9.4 and Sheldon 65 (i.e., "A well struck coin with moderate marks or hairlines" vs. "Well struck with moderate marks or hairlines").
"Unregulated gambling vehicle"? Heh.
Seems pretty clear you're in the "That's not who we are, and what's wrong with just keeping on doing things the way we have been doing them?" camp.
Your observations are spot on. They apparently made an effort to be consistent, but did not map perfectly 1:1. If they did, all of the descriptions would be copies, and they'd have mapped 29 descriptions from Sheldon to NGCX while dropping one.
No, not really. I have no problem with outreach, or with trying to cultivate a next generation. I also have no problem with gambling. The issue is, when left unregulated, you end up with a FTX situation.
They really are running a lottery, with coins as a cover, and they answer to no one. These boxes contain around $300 worth of coins and a $300 lottery ticket, with a payout that could range from $0 to $23,000. Their disclosures are great, and very extensive, but, at the end of the day, who do they answer to, and who is watching over them?
The only guaranteed winner if these sell out is going to be them, and buyers are guaranteed to lose 5-10%, at their inflated values. A few will win big. Most will lose, probably around 50%.
Highly unlikely that most who play will understand this, even though it is all fully disclosed. So, no, I am not a fan of something like this being the means to cultivate the next generation. Because I have issues with unregulated investments or lotteries, and because I just don't think it's going to work once the novelty wears off and people see the financial results.
I thought Blake did a great job in the video. He came across as very sincere and transparent. And then PWCC pulled a one ounce gold proof in an effort to show everyone how easy it is to make a score, and the alarms are still ringing in my head.
Are you claiming the VaultBox people are stealing money from people? Because that's the "FTX situation".
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No. I'm claiming that FTX was unregulated, and they were able to do whatever they wanted, and what they wanted to do was speculate with their customers' deposits.
I have no idea what the VaultBox people are doing, other than that they released at least one box to PWCC before the public release, and it just so happened to be one of the most valuable of all 800 boxes. This isn't just a sale of overpriced bullion. It's also a lottery, no matter what they call it.
Is the distribution subject to any 3rd party oversight or audit, like the packing and sealing by NGC was? No. Will insiders have access to the sale? Probably. Who is overseeing distribution? No idea.
If this was regulated, nothing would have been released to anyone before the public release. Insiders wouldn't be allowed to participate, similar to the way casino employees are not allowed to play in their casino. Storage and access to the boxes would be overseen by an independent third party, like the packing was. They wouldn't be promoting it by busting open winners on YouTube before the on sale date.
I have no idea what is going on, and neither does anyone else. Everything could be on the up and up, PWCC could have just gotten lucky, etc., etc., etc. OR, PWCC got a big winner by design in order to promote the offering, all of the other good boxes could go to insiders, and the public could be left with the crap.
No regulation. No oversight. Absolutely no way to know one way or the other.
That's what I'm saying.
Nope. They don't sell mystery boxes. They are just incompetent when it comes to managing hot releases, but I am quite certain PWCC is not able to pre-buy and show off hot new releases before the public on sale date.
And yes, I understand big bulk buyers get an allocation of most things before everyone else, but even they don't get early or preferential access to the REALLY good stuff, which is how they turn out to be such lucrative flips.
Er, repeat - crackout, cross, bean, upgrade, cherry pick, all a gamble to try to make a coin more valuable. Apparently Vault Box is not allowed to play the game as well?
Of course they are. I'm pretty sure it's all quite legal. So was FTX. So much so, they paid over $100 million to name the arena where the Miami Heat play. Very, extremely legit. At least until it turned out that it wasn't. I'm just saying I don't have a Coinbase account, don't trade crypto, don't mess around with unregistered investments, or gamble in unlicensed gaming establishments.
I was very impressed with the interview Blake gave. Very much less so with the PWCC unboxing. They made a big deal showing off all the steps they took to ensure the boxes were packed in an independent, unbiased manner by a reputable third party.
Where are those boxes now? Who has access to them? Why did PWCC get at least one before anyone else? Who else has early access? Who will decide who will get which boxes? Will insiders have access? Lots of potential conflicts here. No one owes anyone any answers to any of these questions, because this enterprise is unregulated.
VaultBox is certainly allowed to play, and anyone who wants to is allowed to sit across the table and take the other side. But the only risk VaultBox has here is that the boxes will not sell. All the risk is on the buyers. Especially if they will never have a real shot at the good boxes.
Even if they do, as was said before, this is going to be a big loser for most people. Which is why, even if the game turns out to have been rigged, people will never know. Which is why I think third party oversight from beginning to end is crucial. And, as PWCC has already demonstrated, it is absent, although, to be fair, it was never promised.
This is nothing like the crack out game. A better analogy would be if senior executives at the TPGs were making the crack out submissions, and if the graders knew that before they graded the coins.
The TPGs go to great lengths to disclose how grading works. VaultBox made a lot of disclosures about how boxes were packed, and how sales will be conducted, but not about how distribution will be made, or to who. Or how some people have access before others, and how they happened to pull at least one big winner, and to promote that to the rest of the world before the on sale date.
I would love to get one. The video I seen, when the box was opened 2 silver Eagles and 1 gold Eagle that was valued at $ 3000. At least that what the man in the video stated. Nevertheless 599 for over 3k is a win in my book.
Dude................. Niners won!
So you're not buying one, then?
Back to the original OP question and the name of this thread:
Anybody hear of VaultBox?🤔
There will be more losers than winners, nobody starts a business to lose money or break even. I predict that a lot of participants will be back here saying what a scam it was.
To me, the very premise of the business is flawed. They claim to be "bringing the fun of the hunt back into collecting". But coin collecting already has the "fun of the hunt" hard-coded into it, which is manifested in numerous ways:
- Coin roll hunting, and even just finding coins in change
- Cherry-picking
- The crackout game, and the TPG submission game more generally
- CAC and similar derivatives
- Mint lotteries for limited releases
- Auctions
- Ancient coin cleaning
- Raffles and door prizes at coin club meetings
Coin collecting is all about the "thrill of the hunt" already; some speculate that it is such a male-dominated hobby precisely because of that stereotypically male-trait "hunter-gatherer mindset" you need to have to "succeed" at coin collecting. I don't really think it needs an extra, synthetic layer of treasure-hunting-for-a-fee added to it. And while I totally agree with the "it's my money I can waste it if I want to" mindset, I am more concerned with the bigger picture: the future of the hobby and the "new collectors" this gimmick might attract, only for them to be put off coin collecting entirely if the gamble doesn't pay out.
Coin collecting suffers enough from the slick, gimmicky, not-aimed-at-coin-collectors marketeering from mobs like govmint.com. I can't really see this new gimmick as actually helping the hobby as a whole.
Roman emperor Marcus Aurelius, "Meditations"
Apparently I have been awarded one DPOTD.
Ad Nauseam is this forum’s middle name.
Smitten with DBLCs.
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Absolutely not!!! And, I'll admit I was tempted. Especially after Blake said they were working on very thin margins, not including marketing expenses, to build excitement and momentum. And then I saw that unboxing video and I came to my senses.
...They salted W quarters into regular ones. Etc.
...but they weren't charging $1250 per bag for you to buy $1000 worth of quarters in order to hunt for them...
RIP Mom- 1932-2012
(First post, new member, long time lurker observer)
I'm new to hardcore collecting, but a seasoned statistician. I've been "collecting" for some 20+ years, but a very niche focus. Recently, I've started to venture out into new areas now that I've filled my niche (almost) completely. So I saw that VaultBox email come in... looked at the CoinWeek article and their video... and thought to myself... "oh, I'm all over this!" Not from the collector perspective, but from the statistics and probability side! Then I'll decide if I will buy one.
TLDR version: Nope. I don't think I will. But I'm also not one to get a rush from scratch-offs or mega-milions either, in fact they make me queasy, so there's that. If you're a collector that also likes to play the lottery... this is actually still much better odds than the lottery, even beyond the fact you will "win" "$255" with your single $596 scratch-off.
Specific coins in the boxes and the collecting aspects aside, this is what I came up with as the reason I would sit it out. Yeah, there will be somewhere around 136 to 272 boxes that provide return on investment (depending on what valuation you really consider), and a handful that will greatly return on investment, but that's too "unlikely" for my blood.
Geeky side note: I took the listing of coins in each set (common, uncommon, and rare) and unpacked it into a true listing of each of the 800 coins (1 row per coin). Then ran a vector combination of those three sets to get every possible combination of how a single box could be "randomly" assembled -- (800^3) or 512 million rows of data -- and calculated the value of each of those potential boxes.
The following table has the proportion of the 512M box combinations that would provide a return on investment, at 100% of the NGC listed value, at 90%, 80% and 70% (for those of us that pad those for what we would actually consider the market value.
So, at say 80% of the value listed by NGC, there were 21.3% of the combinations that resulted in a box worth over $596. If you consider each combination as having an equal chance of becoming a box, that would approximate 170 profitable boxes out of the 800. If you take NGC values at their word, there would be around 272 profitable boxes.
I tried to calculate the most common box values (mode) in the ROI groups and upper bounds of what could be commonly found as profitable (such as excluding the outlier high dollar coins), but my home computer couldn't handle working that out over 512M records and I can't justify pointing one of our powerful ones on it for a curiosity.
So the Mint blew it with the v75 and so its OK to create another feeding frenzy?
Look I am in the market for the long term I do not want to see moderns or classics marketed this way. It's an unforced error by the firm, long time participant or not.
People will feel burned at some point, in the reselling or the initial purchase price, that is never a good thing.
There is a reason collectible watches or jewelry or art is not marketed this way.
Do not compare it to sportscards which can be stamped out like so many Pringles.
We are in a hobby where state of the art manufacturing and design of precious metal products that are perpetually intrinsic are treasured for generations. Let's treat it that way.
Well done sir, and welcome to the forum @Arkie !
Pretty darn good first post if I do say so myself 👍
Founder- Peak Rarities
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