@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
@NJCoin said:
The goal with VaultBox, at least according to their disclosure, is to sell the boxes at a premium to full retail. That will not be a good investment for anyone other than the lucky few who win a big score.
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
People love Powerball, because every once in a while someone becomes a multimillionaire, and thousands of people win smaller sums. But the game returns around $0.50 for every dollar taken in, which is why governments run them. They are terrible deals for the players, even though a few win. On average everyone loses. A lot.
And that's the goal here, even though Blake claimed their goal is far less than a 50% take. Anything above a normal dealer markup, in return for the excitement of the "pull," is just a bad deal for buyers, and excess profits for the seller. Brilliant if they get it to work, but it's a zero sum game. If they make a lot, it is because buyers are paying too much.
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Sounds more than fair to me. Given that they claim to be marking up wholesale by less than 10%, I don't think it would be crazy to expect close to breakeven on the non-winning boxes. A 25% haircut seems more than generous to me.
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
Terrible deal? Sort of like buying coins from the mint, don't you think?
edited to add... I still have a bunch of 1971 proof sets I paid the US government $5 each for (in 1971) and one sold on eBay in December of 2022 for $3.03. So I know at least a little bit about being sold overpriced crap.
And this is the part of the story that NGCX/Minshull representatives that may be lurking in this thread, see what is going on here. They ensure that the box that I buy contains the $16,000 coin, I make a thread about it showing the results. and no one ever questions this product again. 😂
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
If you are lucky enough to pull a high value red core coin, I'd strongly urge you to test the Instant Offer. Based on the vibe I picked up in the interview, they just might be motivated to make strong offers for those coins in order to create some buzz.
I'd then bounce that offer off an estimate from a respected auction house like Great Collections or Heritage before just sending it to eBay, where you might not be able to maximize value because you won't have enough of the right eyeballs on your prize.
@DeplorableDan said:
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
If you are lucky enough to pull a high value red core coin, I'd strongly urge you to test the Instant Offer. Based on the vibe I picked up in the interview, they just might be motivated to make strong offers for those coins in order to create some buzz.
I'd then bounce that offer off an estimate from a respected auction house like Great Collections or Heritage before just sending it to eBay, where you might not be able to maximize value because you won't have enough of the right eyeballs on your prize.
If it's possible he doesn't have "enough of the right eyeballs" on his eBay listing, selling the coins there wouldn't really be a good evaluation of the deal, would it?
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
Terrible deal? Sort of like buying coins from the mint, don't you think?
edited to add... I still have a bunch of 1971 proof sets I paid the US government $5 each for (in 1971) and one sold on eBay in December of 2022 for $3.03. So I know at least a little bit about being sold overpriced crap.
As a matter of fact, yes! The Mint is an original issuer. Other than hot flips, no one should be buying from the Mint as an investment, especially not now as they have begun to get a clue and seemed to have figured out how to maximize mintages and prices, leaving little for flippers.
Buy from the Mint because you like the coin and don't want to buy culls in the secondary market after the nicer coins have been cherry picked and sent for grading. Not because you expect to make money, unless you are a dealer buying at a bulk discount. Unless it's a very limited mintage with an obvious demand in excess of the supply.
If the thrill of a pull is worth hundreds of dollars in entertainment value, absolutely go for it, because that's what they will eventually be selling. To your point, nothing wrong with that if it's something you value. But, it's really gambling, not collecting or investing. And the expected value over time will be far less than the investment, just like lottery tickets.
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
Terrible deal? Sort of like buying coins from the mint, don't you think?
edited to add... I still have a bunch of 1971 proof sets I paid the US government $5 each for (in 1971) and one sold on eBay in December of 2022 for $3.03. So I know at least a little bit about being sold overpriced crap.
As a matter of fact, yes! The Mint is an original issuer. Other than hot flips, no one should be buying from the Mint as an investment, especially not now as they have begun to get a clue and seemed to have figured out how to maximize mintages and prices, leaving little for flippers.
Ok. So would you be willing to claim the US Mint is running a scam on their customers?
@DeplorableDan said:
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
If you are lucky enough to pull a high value red core coin, I'd strongly urge you to test the Instant Offer. Based on the vibe I picked up in the interview, they just might be motivated to make strong offers for those coins in order to create some buzz.
I'd then bounce that offer off an estimate from a respected auction house like Great Collections or Heritage before just sending it to eBay, where you might not be able to maximize value because you won't have enough of the right eyeballs on your prize.
If it's possible he doesn't have "enough of the right eyeballs" on his eBay listing, selling the coins there wouldn't really be a good evaluation of the deal, would it?
Not really. For the common Eagles, eBay is the perfect venue for someone who isn't a full time dealer. He'll do better there than wholesaling it to a dealer, and there is always plenty of action on eBay.
For a coin worth thousands of dollars, though, it's not that it wouldn't sell on eBay, and for a lot. It's just that it would be likely to do better on GC. That's just not going to happen with a $70 MS69 ASE, and you know it.
For the common and less valuable "premium" coins in the box, eBay will offer far more than VaultBox, and would represent most likely the highest realized value, so would be the best evaluation of the deal. There are no "wrong" eyeballs for a 1987 MS69 ASE, while that's not necessarily true for the 2020 MS70 AGE 75th Anniversary coin.
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
Terrible deal? Sort of like buying coins from the mint, don't you think?
edited to add... I still have a bunch of 1971 proof sets I paid the US government $5 each for (in 1971) and one sold on eBay in December of 2022 for $3.03. So I know at least a little bit about being sold overpriced crap.
As a matter of fact, yes! The Mint is an original issuer. Other than hot flips, no one should be buying from the Mint as an investment, especially not now as they have begun to get a clue and seemed to have figured out how to maximize mintages and prices, leaving little for flippers.
Ok. So would you be willing to claim the US Mint is running a scam on their customers?
No. It's not selling mystery boxes at prices above what it normally sells the coins for.
@MasonG said:
If it's possible he doesn't have "enough of the right eyeballs" on his eBay listing, selling the coins there wouldn't really be a good evaluation of the deal, would it?
Not really. For the common Eagles, eBay is the perfect venue for someone who isn't a full time dealer. He'll do better there than wholesaling it to a dealer, and there is always plenty of action on eBay.
For a coin worth thousands of dollars, though, it's not that it wouldn't sell on eBay, and for a lot. It's just that it would be likely to do better on GC. That's just not going to happen with a $70 MS69 ASE, and you know it.
In the first scenario, you're comparing selling on eBay to wholesaling to a dealer. In the second, you're comparing selling on eBay to consigning to GC. Why not make the same comparison for both situations?
And as far as how a sale might go, I don't have the first clue. I don't buy or sell coins like this.
@MasonG said:
If it's possible he doesn't have "enough of the right eyeballs" on his eBay listing, selling the coins there wouldn't really be a good evaluation of the deal, would it?
Not really. For the common Eagles, eBay is the perfect venue for someone who isn't a full time dealer. He'll do better there than wholesaling it to a dealer, and there is always plenty of action on eBay.
For a coin worth thousands of dollars, though, it's not that it wouldn't sell on eBay, and for a lot. It's just that it would be likely to do better on GC. That's just not going to happen with a $70 MS69 ASE, and you know it.
In the first scenario, you're comparing selling on eBay to wholesaling to a dealer. In the second, you're comparing selling on eBay to consigning to GC. Why not make the same comparison for both situations?
And as far as how a sale might go, I don't have the first clue. I don't buy or sell coins like this.
Because I'm suggesting that eBay is not the best platform for high value coins, but is for low value ones.
Walmart is the best place to sell certain types of apparel. Nordstrom is for others. And there is nothing inconsistent in recognizing that. Same with eBay, GC, Heritage, Stacks, etc. And you know this. The $23K coin is not the $70 one, but they will both be in the boxes.
Wholesaling back to VaultBox is the base line here, since they make the Instant Offer guarantee. Blake admitted in the interview that it will be convenient, but won't maximize value in most cases (i.e., below wholesale). I'm just speculating that they might want to make a splash by making big offers for the marquis pulls, so I'm suggesting getting an offer if a big money coin is pulled.
Beyond that, I'm just stating the obvious -- that big money coins are likely to do better at Nordstron (a numismatic auction house) than at Walmart (eBay), and that @DeplorableDan would be doing himself a disservice if he did not explore the option.
Why not make the same comparison for both situations? Because maximum value dictates different approaches for different tiers of coin.
@NJCoin said:
Walmart is the best place to sell certain types of apparel. Nordstrom is for others. And there is nothing inconsistent in recognizing that. Same with eBay, GC, Heritage, Stacks, etc. And you know this. The $23K coin is not the $70 one, but they will both be in the boxes.
I don't buy or sell these kinds of coins, so no- I don't know this. I see suggestions here regularly that prospective sellers send their coins to GC, and many of them seem to be (to me, anyway) rather ordinary. There was a thread posted just the other day by someone wanting to sell a bunch of modern commemoratives and it was recommended that he send the coins to GC. I would be surprised if this lot included any $20k coins.
I would be open to try any sales method, whether we try eBay with a 2% promotional ad spend (added to total “fees” portion), GC, BST, or Vaultbox offer (which would be the 1st option). I have 91 sales and 100% positive feedback, eBay member since 2016. After I unbox the coins we can take polls on how each of them are sold. Let’s keep in mind that a novice collector wouldn’t have this many options to sell, so I would hope that the Vaultbox offer comes in strong. I’d really prefer to be wrong in this scenario lol
@NJCoin said:
Walmart is the best place to sell certain types of apparel. Nordstrom is for others. And there is nothing inconsistent in recognizing that. Same with eBay, GC, Heritage, Stacks, etc. And you know this. The $23K coin is not the $70 one, but they will both be in the boxes.
I don't buy or sell these kinds of coins, so no- I don't know this. I see suggestions here regularly that prospective sellers send their coins to GC, and many of them seem to be (to me, anyway) rather ordinary. There was a thread posted just the other day by someone wanting to sell a bunch of modern commemoratives and it was recommended that he send the coins to GC. I would be surprised if this lot included any $20k coins.
In that case, my bad. I thought you were just jerking me around. Yes, GC has everything, but they also have a 10-12.5% buyer premium, which will cut into seller proceeds. It's worth it to get premium coins in front of the right people, but is an unnecessary expense for lower value coins.
This doesn't mean some people won't send everything there, for among other reasons, to avoid some of the BS that takes place on eBay. I am also pretty sure they charge seller fees (5%) on top of the buyer fees on sub-$1,000 coins, plus a small listing fee. It's just an expensive way to sell low value items.
EBay is a much larger platform, with much more flexibility into when and how you sell. For lower value coins, it is probably more likely to result in higher net proceeds to the seller. It will be more difficult to get the right people bidding on a $20K coin on eBay (and you sure don't want to deal with any of the multitude of buyer scams perpetrated there when dealing with a high value coin), and you don't need the curating and marketing of GC or Heritage to sell a $100 coin.
@DeplorableDan said:
I would be open to try any sales method, whether we try eBay with a 2% promotional ad spend (added to total “fees” portion), GC, BST, or Vaultbox offer (which would be the 1st option). I have 91 sales and 100% positive feedback, eBay member since 2016. After I unbox the coins we can take polls on how each of them are sold. Let’s keep in mind that a novice collector wouldn’t have this many options to sell, so I would hope that the Vaultbox offer comes in strong. I’d really prefer to be wrong in this scenario lol
You're not. There is no indication that the offers for the low value "stuff" will be strong. For novice collectors, the idea is to get them hooked on collecting, not to provide a vehicle for them to flip at a profit back to the seller, so I don't have a huge problem with this.
You will be doing this as an experiment, but their target audience is card collectors they are trying to attract to numismatics. If they are true to the word, and are selling these at a minimal markup to wholesale to get the ball rolling, then most people will receive decent value from their boxes, they will be happy, and they won't be seeking to cash out.
I am quite certain, though, that for those who want to sell, your idea to go to eBay will be the right move for all but the premium red core coins, where either VaultBox will make strong offers in order to publicize them, or a specialized numismatic auction house will be the place to maximize value.
Long term, it can't be a good deal for the buyers if it's also one for the sellers, especially based on the disclosures that they are selling above retail and buying back below wholesale.
But this is exactly the way markets work. For example, a farmer produces 10,000 gallons of milk and can use 500 at most. So he has 9500 gallons that are worth, say, $2 for him to sell (less he might prefer to dump rather than transport). Now we have a young mother who needs milk for her baby. She's willing to pay $25 for a gallon. So anywhere between $2 and $25 are good deals for both buyers and sellers. So if the milk changes hands at, say, $5.79, society gains $23 per gallon.
Every single deal works like that. When the government forces a transaction, that works differently, but when a buyer doesn't value something, anything, higher than the seller does, most deals don't get made. The vast, vast majority of deals make people happy, otherwise there would be no repeat business. Note that you don't need to have positive prices. I'm sure we all have things that we would pay to get rid of, or would accept along with money. Many "untradeable" sports contracts work that way.
Tl;dr. Long term it can, and almost always is, a good deal for both the buyer and the seller.
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
I don't know why some think that some people on this forum aren't likely buyers. From what I've observed the last few years, many new members on the coin forum would fit the perfect profile.
Parking lot finds? 1000x photos of Lincoln cents? PMD Jeffersons?
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Long term, it can't be a good deal for the buyers if it's also one for the sellers, especially based on the disclosures that they are selling above retail and buying back below wholesale.
But this is exactly the way markets work. For example, a farmer produces 10,000 gallons of milk and can use 500 at most. So he has 9500 gallons that are worth, say, $2 for him to sell (less he might prefer to dump rather than transport). Now we have a young mother who needs milk for her baby. She's willing to pay $25 for a gallon. So anywhere between $2 and $25 are good deals for both buyers and sellers. So if the milk changes hands at, say, $5.79, society gains $23 per gallon.
Every single deal works like that. When the government forces a transaction, that works differently, but when a buyer doesn't value something, anything, higher than the seller does, most deals don't get made. The vast, vast majority of deals make people happy, otherwise there would be no repeat business. Note that you don't need to have positive prices. I'm sure we all have things that we would pay to get rid of, or would accept along with money. Many "untradeable" sports contracts work that way.
Tl;dr. Long term it can, and almost always is, a good deal for both the buyer and the seller.
I know how markets work. I don't go to the supermarket to buy mystery boxes of groceries that are priced higher than the regular retail prices of each item in the box, with the hope that I'll pull two pounds of filet mignon instead of dog food. If that was how grocery buying worked, supermarkets would gross a lot more money, and a select few would receive a lot more than what they paid for, but, long term, supermarkets would win and consumers would lose.
Yes, you can certainly say society wins when desperate, stupid people are induced to buy into a fantasy and buy lottery tickets that return $0.50 for every dollar "invested," since government raises money without imposing additional taxes. But the lottery is not a good deal for the players, other than the very rare winners.
Mystery boxes sold at or below retail are an interesting concept. Mystery boxes sold above retail, because a premium is charged for the mystery, are a good deal for sellers and bad deals for buyers, just like my grocery example above.
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
Shouldn't you get a VaultBox quote as well for comparison? I mean, suppose VaultBox offers $500?
Sure, if you like we could even get the vault box offer, and then proceed to sell the coins on eBay anyway for more experimental value.
@DeplorableDan said:
Im very skeptical of this marketing method as well but I’ll put my money where my mouth is, I would like to be proven wrong.
What would it take for you to consider you were proven wrong?
I’ll likely liquidate the coins from the box immediately and sell them on eBay in 7 day auctions that end on a Sunday night. If I’m able to recoup 75% of my investment, or $450 out of my $600+ shipping, then I will publicly state that I was wrong and that NGCX Vaultbox is a fair and reasonable product. Is that fair?
I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
Shouldn't you get a VaultBox quote as well for comparison? I mean, suppose VaultBox offers $500?
Sure, if you like we could even get the vault box offer, and then proceed to sell the coins on eBay anyway for more experimental value.
Sure, but, unless you pull a red core coin, you'll only prove that Instant Offers for the "stuff" are not going to be top dollar. But that's not objectionable, because they ARE providing a service, and shouldn't be expected to be a top dollar buyer for common stuff that won't create a buzz.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
I'm sure NGC did nothing wrong. I'm less sure people handling sealed boxes cannot tell the difference between ones containing 3 ounces of silver and ones containing other metals.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
I'm sure NGC did nothing wrong. I'm less sure people handling sealed boxes cannot tell the difference between ones containing 3 ounces of silver and ones containing other metals.
Shaun and the co owner of the product. In the interview video above. They were discussing whether or not one can use a metal detector to determine what metal is inside the boxes.
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@jmlanzaf said:
Buy a 1941 MS65 FB Mercury Dime on GC this week. Throw it on eBay next week and see what happens.
I'm not really interested in doing that experiment. What are you saying it would tell me?
I'm not sure it is so easy to buy anything commom at retail and net 75% on ebay a week later.
Why not? Isn't eBay, before fees, supposed to represent retail? If not, why buy anything common anywhere else?
EBay is like any coin store, people willing to pay full retail and people looking to pay wholesale. Netting 75% means grossing 85%. And for common things you are competing with hundreds of similar listings, some of whom are very motivated sellers. If you list it at full retail, you will eventually sell it but it could take weeks or months.
"Full" retail, discount to retail, whatever. If you are not a professional seller, selling on eBay is almost always the way to maximize value, even with the competition, unless you are talking about a high value item that would be more likely to find its audience elsewhere. Collectors sell to dealers because it is fast and hassle free. Not because they usually pay more than can be realized on eBay.
The only point is that eBay prices would be far more likely to represent present value for anything common pulled from one of these boxes, likely more than any Instant Offer, and are therefore a legitimate representation of the value of whatever is pulled from the boxes.
I don't think the plan here is to list at full retail Buy It Now prices. It's probably just to list it, and then see what happens.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
Maybe, but, I'll be honest -- I'm shocked VaultBox allowed that video to be shot and released prior to the on sale date. While it's surely designed to get the masses to project themselves pulling a 1 ounce gold PR10, it will also set alarms off for skeptics like myself, due to the multiple ways any enterprise that is unregulated can be manipulated, on top of the astronomical odds against anyone pulling that coin randomly while taping.
It not only reduces MY odds of getting a one ounce gold coin, but it calls into question how many other prizes will be plucked before sales to the public even begin.
If insiders and friends and family have access, as they undoubtedly do, and if there is in fact a way to x-ray the boxes, weigh them, analyze them, whatever, and separate 3 ounces of silver from everything else, oh boy! Sure, there will plenty of stories of people making scores, but they may all be friends of friends, with the general public pulling up the rear.
All we know now is at least one tease box opening has been taped, and the only 2006-W NGCX10 $50 AGE is no longer available to us. The odds of pulling one ounce of anything other than silver were 29 in 800, and somehow they did it. Good for them. Bad for me. My odds are now 28 in 800 (3.5%).
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I don't know. I'm not an active participant in this particular market (including eBay auctions for these coins) so I wouldn't know whether that would be a reasonable assumption or not. Thanks for answering my question, sorry I can't answer yours any better than that.
Ok. So what's wrong with that? If you're not willing to be one of those who don't win a big score, you don't have to participate, do you?
What's wrong with participating in a gamble where all boxes are marked up above full retail? Nothing, but it's a terrible deal.
People love Powerball, because every once in a while someone becomes a multimillionaire, and thousands of people win smaller sums. But the game returns around $0.50 for every dollar taken in, which is why governments run them. They are terrible deals for the players, even though a few win. On average everyone loses. A lot.
And that's the goal here, even though Blake claimed their goal is far less than a 50% take. Anything above a normal dealer markup, in return for the excitement of the "pull," is just a bad deal for buyers, and excess profits for the seller. Brilliant if they get it to work, but it's a zero sum game. If they make a lot, it is because buyers are paying too much.
Fair enough. I’ll even go as far as saying that if I NET 2/3 of my purchase price after selling on eBay, I’ll consider myself proven wrong. So I forget what my fees are on eBay but I think it’s 15% up to $1000, If that’s the case I would need to GROSS around $475+ to net $400, and If I NET $400 after all fees then I’ll admit that my assumptions were incorrect
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Sounds more than fair to me. Given that they claim to be marking up wholesale by less than 10%, I don't think it would be crazy to expect close to breakeven on the non-winning boxes. A 25% haircut seems more than generous to me.
Terrible deal? Sort of like buying coins from the mint, don't you think?
edited to add... I still have a bunch of 1971 proof sets I paid the US government $5 each for (in 1971) and one sold on eBay in December of 2022 for $3.03. So I know at least a little bit about being sold overpriced crap.
And this is the part of the story that NGCX/Minshull representatives that may be lurking in this thread, see what is going on here. They ensure that the box that I buy contains the $16,000 coin, I make a thread about it showing the results. and no one ever questions this product again. 😂
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If you are lucky enough to pull a high value red core coin, I'd strongly urge you to test the Instant Offer. Based on the vibe I picked up in the interview, they just might be motivated to make strong offers for those coins in order to create some buzz.
I'd then bounce that offer off an estimate from a respected auction house like Great Collections or Heritage before just sending it to eBay, where you might not be able to maximize value because you won't have enough of the right eyeballs on your prize.
If it's possible he doesn't have "enough of the right eyeballs" on his eBay listing, selling the coins there wouldn't really be a good evaluation of the deal, would it?
As a matter of fact, yes! The Mint is an original issuer. Other than hot flips, no one should be buying from the Mint as an investment, especially not now as they have begun to get a clue and seemed to have figured out how to maximize mintages and prices, leaving little for flippers.
Buy from the Mint because you like the coin and don't want to buy culls in the secondary market after the nicer coins have been cherry picked and sent for grading. Not because you expect to make money, unless you are a dealer buying at a bulk discount. Unless it's a very limited mintage with an obvious demand in excess of the supply.
If the thrill of a pull is worth hundreds of dollars in entertainment value, absolutely go for it, because that's what they will eventually be selling. To your point, nothing wrong with that if it's something you value. But, it's really gambling, not collecting or investing. And the expected value over time will be far less than the investment, just like lottery tickets.
Ok. So would you be willing to claim the US Mint is running a scam on their customers?
Not really. For the common Eagles, eBay is the perfect venue for someone who isn't a full time dealer. He'll do better there than wholesaling it to a dealer, and there is always plenty of action on eBay.
For a coin worth thousands of dollars, though, it's not that it wouldn't sell on eBay, and for a lot. It's just that it would be likely to do better on GC. That's just not going to happen with a $70 MS69 ASE, and you know it.
For the common and less valuable "premium" coins in the box, eBay will offer far more than VaultBox, and would represent most likely the highest realized value, so would be the best evaluation of the deal. There are no "wrong" eyeballs for a 1987 MS69 ASE, while that's not necessarily true for the 2020 MS70 AGE 75th Anniversary coin.
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No. It's not selling mystery boxes at prices above what it normally sells the coins for.
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In the first scenario, you're comparing selling on eBay to wholesaling to a dealer. In the second, you're comparing selling on eBay to consigning to GC. Why not make the same comparison for both situations?
And as far as how a sale might go, I don't have the first clue. I don't buy or sell coins like this.
Because I'm suggesting that eBay is not the best platform for high value coins, but is for low value ones.
Walmart is the best place to sell certain types of apparel. Nordstrom is for others. And there is nothing inconsistent in recognizing that. Same with eBay, GC, Heritage, Stacks, etc. And you know this. The $23K coin is not the $70 one, but they will both be in the boxes.
Wholesaling back to VaultBox is the base line here, since they make the Instant Offer guarantee. Blake admitted in the interview that it will be convenient, but won't maximize value in most cases (i.e., below wholesale). I'm just speculating that they might want to make a splash by making big offers for the marquis pulls, so I'm suggesting getting an offer if a big money coin is pulled.
Beyond that, I'm just stating the obvious -- that big money coins are likely to do better at Nordstron (a numismatic auction house) than at Walmart (eBay), and that @DeplorableDan would be doing himself a disservice if he did not explore the option.
Why not make the same comparison for both situations? Because maximum value dictates different approaches for different tiers of coin.
I don't buy or sell these kinds of coins, so no- I don't know this. I see suggestions here regularly that prospective sellers send their coins to GC, and many of them seem to be (to me, anyway) rather ordinary. There was a thread posted just the other day by someone wanting to sell a bunch of modern commemoratives and it was recommended that he send the coins to GC. I would be surprised if this lot included any $20k coins.
I would be open to try any sales method, whether we try eBay with a 2% promotional ad spend (added to total “fees” portion), GC, BST, or Vaultbox offer (which would be the 1st option). I have 91 sales and 100% positive feedback, eBay member since 2016. After I unbox the coins we can take polls on how each of them are sold. Let’s keep in mind that a novice collector wouldn’t have this many options to sell, so I would hope that the Vaultbox offer comes in strong. I’d really prefer to be wrong in this scenario lol
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In that case, my bad. I thought you were just jerking me around. Yes, GC has everything, but they also have a 10-12.5% buyer premium, which will cut into seller proceeds. It's worth it to get premium coins in front of the right people, but is an unnecessary expense for lower value coins.
This doesn't mean some people won't send everything there, for among other reasons, to avoid some of the BS that takes place on eBay. I am also pretty sure they charge seller fees (5%) on top of the buyer fees on sub-$1,000 coins, plus a small listing fee. It's just an expensive way to sell low value items.
EBay is a much larger platform, with much more flexibility into when and how you sell. For lower value coins, it is probably more likely to result in higher net proceeds to the seller. It will be more difficult to get the right people bidding on a $20K coin on eBay (and you sure don't want to deal with any of the multitude of buyer scams perpetrated there when dealing with a high value coin), and you don't need the curating and marketing of GC or Heritage to sell a $100 coin.
You're not. There is no indication that the offers for the low value "stuff" will be strong. For novice collectors, the idea is to get them hooked on collecting, not to provide a vehicle for them to flip at a profit back to the seller, so I don't have a huge problem with this.
You will be doing this as an experiment, but their target audience is card collectors they are trying to attract to numismatics. If they are true to the word, and are selling these at a minimal markup to wholesale to get the ball rolling, then most people will receive decent value from their boxes, they will be happy, and they won't be seeking to cash out.
I am quite certain, though, that for those who want to sell, your idea to go to eBay will be the right move for all but the premium red core coins, where either VaultBox will make strong offers in order to publicize them, or a specialized numismatic auction house will be the place to maximize value.
Right from the horse's mouth!
https://youtu.be/5H5vhJdyRJ0
This one shows an open box!
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line.35
But this is exactly the way markets work. For example, a farmer produces 10,000 gallons of milk and can use 500 at most. So he has 9500 gallons that are worth, say, $2 for him to sell (less he might prefer to dump rather than transport). Now we have a young mother who needs milk for her baby. She's willing to pay $25 for a gallon. So anywhere between $2 and $25 are good deals for both buyers and sellers. So if the milk changes hands at, say, $5.79, society gains $23 per gallon.
Every single deal works like that. When the government forces a transaction, that works differently, but when a buyer doesn't value something, anything, higher than the seller does, most deals don't get made. The vast, vast majority of deals make people happy, otherwise there would be no repeat business. Note that you don't need to have positive prices. I'm sure we all have things that we would pay to get rid of, or would accept along with money. Many "untradeable" sports contracts work that way.
Tl;dr. Long term it can, and almost always is, a good deal for both the buyer and the seller.
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Pig, meet poke.
I don't know why some think that some people on this forum aren't likely buyers. From what I've observed the last few years, many new members on the coin forum would fit the perfect profile.
Parking lot finds? 1000x photos of Lincoln cents? PMD Jeffersons?
I'm not really interested in doing that experiment. What are you saying it would tell me?
That eBay is not the proper venue for high value coins.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
I know how markets work. I don't go to the supermarket to buy mystery boxes of groceries that are priced higher than the regular retail prices of each item in the box, with the hope that I'll pull two pounds of filet mignon instead of dog food. If that was how grocery buying worked, supermarkets would gross a lot more money, and a select few would receive a lot more than what they paid for, but, long term, supermarkets would win and consumers would lose.
Yes, you can certainly say society wins when desperate, stupid people are induced to buy into a fantasy and buy lottery tickets that return $0.50 for every dollar "invested," since government raises money without imposing additional taxes. But the lottery is not a good deal for the players, other than the very rare winners.
Mystery boxes sold at or below retail are an interesting concept. Mystery boxes sold above retail, because a premium is charged for the mystery, are a good deal for sellers and bad deals for buyers, just like my grocery example above.
Sure, if you like we could even get the vault box offer, and then proceed to sell the coins on eBay anyway for more experimental value.
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The bottom line is not good for marketplace integrity.
Relegates collecting valuable moderns to a game of chance.
It should always be about marketplace integrity. Integrity keeps interest,values and future viability intact.
Sure, but, unless you pull a red core coin, you'll only prove that Instant Offers for the "stuff" are not going to be top dollar. But that's not objectionable, because they ARE providing a service, and shouldn't be expected to be a top dollar buyer for common stuff that won't create a buzz.
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Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
Coin Photographer.
I’d rather take $600 and see what the best coin I could get with that money would be
This is a ploy to get new collectors money
And they will
And said new collector will learn
Not sure if this has been covered yet, but why are the red core slabs worth so much? Is that what they go for in the NGC Price Guide?
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Why not? Isn't eBay, before fees, supposed to represent retail? If not, why buy anything common anywhere else?
Well, we raised the stakes from that point. I came down to net 66%, so would you consider that more reasonable for this experiment?
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I'm sure NGC did nothing wrong. I'm less sure people handling sealed boxes cannot tell the difference between ones containing 3 ounces of silver and ones containing other metals.
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Shaun and the co owner of the product. In the interview video above. They were discussing whether or not one can use a metal detector to determine what metal is inside the boxes.
"Jesus died for you and for me, Thank you,Jesus"!!!
--- If it should happen I die and leave this world and you want to remember me. Please only remember my opening Sig Line."Full" retail, discount to retail, whatever. If you are not a professional seller, selling on eBay is almost always the way to maximize value, even with the competition, unless you are talking about a high value item that would be more likely to find its audience elsewhere. Collectors sell to dealers because it is fast and hassle free. Not because they usually pay more than can be realized on eBay.
The only point is that eBay prices would be far more likely to represent present value for anything common pulled from one of these boxes, likely more than any Instant Offer, and are therefore a legitimate representation of the value of whatever is pulled from the boxes.
I don't think the plan here is to list at full retail Buy It Now prices. It's probably just to list it, and then see what happens.
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Maybe, but, I'll be honest -- I'm shocked VaultBox allowed that video to be shot and released prior to the on sale date. While it's surely designed to get the masses to project themselves pulling a 1 ounce gold PR10, it will also set alarms off for skeptics like myself, due to the multiple ways any enterprise that is unregulated can be manipulated, on top of the astronomical odds against anyone pulling that coin randomly while taping.
It not only reduces MY odds of getting a one ounce gold coin, but it calls into question how many other prizes will be plucked before sales to the public even begin.
If insiders and friends and family have access, as they undoubtedly do, and if there is in fact a way to x-ray the boxes, weigh them, analyze them, whatever, and separate 3 ounces of silver from everything else, oh boy! Sure, there will plenty of stories of people making scores, but they may all be friends of friends, with the general public pulling up the rear.
All we know now is at least one tease box opening has been taped, and the only 2006-W NGCX10 $50 AGE is no longer available to us. The odds of pulling one ounce of anything other than silver were 29 in 800, and somehow they did it. Good for them. Bad for me. My odds are now 28 in 800 (3.5%).