@Zoins said:
Not sure if this has been covered yet, but why are the red core slabs worth so much? Is that what they go for in the NGC Price Guide?
$4,250
$12,000
$23,000
No. That is their current Instant Offer for the coins in the holder. These are brand new and exclusive. There is no NGC price guide for them. They are each one-offs in those holders.
Thanks. At least for me, the unboxing video raises more questions than it answers. After all, the odds of anyone randomly pulling a 1 ounce gold proof are extremely low, so how did they do that for the video? The magic of Hollywood?
The mere fact that the video was made, to gin up excitement ahead of the release, feels a little sketchy. "Look at how great this is! $3K worth of coins for $595!!!" It probably would have been much more representative if they pulled $400 worth of coins, but, of course, that wouldn't make anyone excited to take a shot at $595 a pop.
Did they have to open multiple boxes to make the video? Do they, in fact, know which boxes are the high value ones? The odds of getting anything other than a silver coin, or 1/10th ounce gold or platinum coin as one of the 800 "rare" coins is tiny, on how on earth did these guys just happen to sit down to make a video and score a 1 ounce gold, sight unseen? Feels a little like Tom Cruise defying the laws of gravity in a movie.
In any event, we now know there is at least one big winner that is not available to the public, and that reduces the expected value of the remaining 799 boxes before the game even begins. Instantly removed something approaching 1.00% of the value of the pool while busting open 0.125% of the boxes. Fun!!!
Either way, the scenario that you are presenting is impossible if we assume NGC did their job correctly and honestly.
The box was obviously sealed with the NGC seal, so the coins inside were unknown to anyone except the person who packaged the box (who was obviously not present). As crazy as it seems, I believe the video is legitimate.
I'm sure NGC did nothing wrong. I'm less sure people handling sealed boxes cannot tell the difference between ones containing 3 ounces of silver and ones containing other metals.
Shaun and the co owner of the product. In the interview video above. They were discussing whether or not one can use a metal detector to determine what metal is inside the boxes.
And Blake said they didn't consider it, and have no idea. Not a denial.
It's paper and plastic surrounding the coins, not lead. Can anything penetrate that and perform an accurate analysis without breaking the seals? If so, then it is possible that sealed boxes can be sorted, even without external markings.
Won't be able to tell one $50 AGE from another, but might be able to separate gold, platinum and palladium from silver, and fractionals from full ounce coins.
@jmlanzaf said:
Buy a 1941 MS65 FB Mercury Dime on GC this week. Throw it on eBay next week and see what happens.
I'm not really interested in doing that experiment. What are you saying it would tell me?
I'm not sure it is so easy to buy anything commom at retail and net 75% on ebay a week later.
Why not? Isn't eBay, before fees, supposed to represent retail? If not, why buy anything common anywhere else?
EBay is like any coin store, people willing to pay full retail and people looking to pay wholesale. Netting 75% means grossing 85%. And for common things you are competing with hundreds of similar listings, some of whom are very motivated sellers. If you list it at full retail, you will eventually sell it but it could take weeks or months.
"Full" retail, discount to retail, whatever. If you are not a professional seller, selling on eBay is almost always the way to maximize value, even with the competition, unless you are talking about a high value item that would be more likely to find its audience elsewhere.
The only point is that eBay prices would be far more likely to represent present value for anything common pulled from one of these boxes, likely more than any Instant Offer, and are therefore a legitimate representation of the value of whatever is pulled from the boxes. I don't think the plan here is to list at full retail Buy It Now prices. It's probably just to list it, and then see what happens.
I've done 85,000 ebay transactions. I've sold hundreds of slabbed eagles on ebay. Please explain ebay to me.
Okay. What would you like to know? Why @DeplorableDan is likely to do better selling common coins pulled from VaultBoxes there than accepting VaultBox Instant Offers?
Probably for the same reason you chose to sell hundreds of slabbed Eagles on eBay. It will represent the highest, most accurate value of what is pulled from the boxes, aside from the big scores.
Contrary to members saying there is no affiliation. Clearly there is
Simply bullion coins mistaken as rare collectibles
Those two dudes are pure bozos, especially the dude in the purple, I bet he’s not allowed near schools
I fully agree with your sentiment, right up through salting a few valuable coins among around 2,000 bullion coins in slabs that are being sold at inflated prices, but respectfully disagree that the fact that NGC selling exclusive, customized holders and labels implies an affiliation. They do it for all the big submitters, as do all the other TPGs. No affiliation, other than client/vendor.
VaultBox program. NGCX did the grading, labeling, holdering, packaging and sealing as a third party vendor. They are not otherwise partners in it, any more than they are in anything any of the TV guys market.
Contrary to members saying there is no affiliation. Clearly there is
Simply bullion coins mistaken as rare collectibles
Those two dudes are pure bozos, especially the dude in the purple, I bet he’s not allowed near schools
I fully agree with your sentiment, but respectfully disagree that the fact that NGC selling exclusive, customized holders and labels implies an affiliation. They do it for all the big submitters, as do all the other TPGs. No affiliation, other than client/vendor.
People keep falling for “unseached rolls” of cents with a VDB at one end, of which there are thousands of such rolls in existence, so why not this???
Numismatist. 50 year member ANA. Winner of four ANA Heath Literary Awards; three Wayte and Olga Raymond Literary Awards; Numismatist of the Year Award 2009, and Lifetime Achievement Award 2020. Winner numerous NLG Literary Awards.
@CaptHenway said:
People keep falling for “unseached rolls” of cents with a VDB at one end, of which there are thousands of such rolls in existence, so why not this???
It inflates margins resulting in unhappy potential collectors.
And major companies are attaching themselves to the enticement. I understand the quest to get the new coin grading standard out to new collectors.
The differences in valuation of items advertised as contained in the boxes is problematic IMO.
@jmlanzaf said:
Buy a 1941 MS65 FB Mercury Dime on GC this week. Throw it on eBay next week and see what happens.
I'm not really interested in doing that experiment. What are you saying it would tell me?
I'm not sure it is so easy to buy anything commom at retail and net 75% on ebay a week later.
Why not? Isn't eBay, before fees, supposed to represent retail? If not, why buy anything common anywhere else?
EBay is like any coin store, people willing to pay full retail and people looking to pay wholesale. Netting 75% means grossing 85%. And for common things you are competing with hundreds of similar listings, some of whom are very motivated sellers. If you list it at full retail, you will eventually sell it but it could take weeks or months.
"Full" retail, discount to retail, whatever. If you are not a professional seller, selling on eBay is almost always the way to maximize value, even with the competition, unless you are talking about a high value item that would be more likely to find its audience elsewhere.
The only point is that eBay prices would be far more likely to represent present value for anything common pulled from one of these boxes, likely more than any Instant Offer, and are therefore a legitimate representation of the value of whatever is pulled from the boxes. I don't think the plan here is to list at full retail Buy It Now prices. It's probably just to list it, and then see what happens.
I've done 85,000 ebay transactions. I've sold hundreds of slabbed eagles on ebay. Please explain ebay to me.
Okay. What would you like to know? Why @DeplorableDan is likely to do better selling common coins pulled from VaultBoxes there than accepting VaultBox Instant Offers?
Probably for the same reason you chose to sell hundreds of slabbed Eagles on eBay. It will represent the highest, most accurate value of what is pulled from the boxes, aside from the big scores.
I didn't buy them at retail.
I didn't try to sell them via auction in a week.
So what? The goal here isn't to massage them for years in an attempt to maximize profit. It's to see what the box is worth immediately after purchase.
@CaptHenway said:
People keep falling for “unseached rolls” of cents with a VDB at one end, of which there are thousands of such rolls in existence, so why not this???
It inflates margins resulting in unhappy potential collectors.
And major companies are attaching themselves to the enticement. I understand the quest to get the new coin grading standard out to new collectors.
The differences in valuation of items advertised as contained in the boxes is problematic IMO.
True, but the numismatic community has been able to successfully separate the value and credibility the TPGs attach to classic coins from the mass market modern label mania that generates millions of dollars a year in revenue for them. They are not "attaching" themselves to anything. They are just providing a service and making a buck in so doing.
@jmlanzaf said:
Buy a 1941 MS65 FB Mercury Dime on GC this week. Throw it on eBay next week and see what happens.
I'm not really interested in doing that experiment. What are you saying it would tell me?
I'm not sure it is so easy to buy anything commom at retail and net 75% on ebay a week later.
Why not? Isn't eBay, before fees, supposed to represent retail? If not, why buy anything common anywhere else?
EBay is like any coin store, people willing to pay full retail and people looking to pay wholesale. Netting 75% means grossing 85%. And for common things you are competing with hundreds of similar listings, some of whom are very motivated sellers. If you list it at full retail, you will eventually sell it but it could take weeks or months.
"Full" retail, discount to retail, whatever. If you are not a professional seller, selling on eBay is almost always the way to maximize value, even with the competition, unless you are talking about a high value item that would be more likely to find its audience elsewhere.
The only point is that eBay prices would be far more likely to represent present value for anything common pulled from one of these boxes, likely more than any Instant Offer, and are therefore a legitimate representation of the value of whatever is pulled from the boxes. I don't think the plan here is to list at full retail Buy It Now prices. It's probably just to list it, and then see what happens.
I've done 85,000 ebay transactions. I've sold hundreds of slabbed eagles on ebay. Please explain ebay to me.
Okay. What would you like to know? Why @DeplorableDan is likely to do better selling common coins pulled from VaultBoxes there than accepting VaultBox Instant Offers?
Probably for the same reason you chose to sell hundreds of slabbed Eagles on eBay. It will represent the highest, most accurate value of what is pulled from the boxes, aside from the big scores.
I didn't buy them at retail.
I didn't try to sell them via auction in a week.
So what? The goal here isn't to massage them for years in an attempt to maximize profit. It's to see what the box is worth immediately after purchase.
Which is why I raised the question as to whether ebay was the best way to determine that.
Why wouldn't it be? It was the best way for you to maximize value after not buying at retail and not trying to sell within a week. I'm sure if you could do better wholesaling to another dealer that you would do so. Why would it be any different for him?
By my math, the average stated "value" per coin in the Common group is about $65. In the Uncommon group, about $126. So that's about $191 for the two coins you'd get from Common and Uncommon. Not a lot of variation in stated value for the coins in either group.
So now you get to the Rare group. There are 174 different possible coins you could get with stated values ranging from $130 to $23,500. But the weighted average cost (factoring in the quantity of each different coin, meaning if they are using 30 of one coin, that coin's stated value counts 30 times as much to the weighted average as a coin where there only one. This is the way to evaluate your personal odds.
And it turns out that if your buy-in cost is $595, only 35% of the coins in the Rare group would get you to breakeven after adjusting for the $191 stated value from your one Common and one Uncommon coin. Assuming the stated values are realistic.
So to me there's a roughly 35% chance of getting more stated value than you pay. Now you must factor in that the stated values are from the NGC price guide and those are not lowball prices (example: a 1990 ASE in 9.9 (equal to MS69) has a stated value of $125, and I found on on a popular retailer site for $84. So let's figure it's reasonable to estimate the stated values are 10% too high. And then you try to guess what YOU could sell them for, and let's estimate 15% less than that.
That's the value you're getting. And it works out that only 22% of the coins in the Rare group would give you enough value to get you to breakeven. In the big picture, you have a little more than a 1 in 5 chance of making out on the deal.
Now it's entirely possible that the target demographic for this thing would not find that a problem, and the thrill of the unknown is sufficient to give it a try, and that everyone understands the odds are against them. I can't relate to it as I like to choose the coins I buy.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
@kranky said:
By my math, the average stated "value" per coin in the Common group is about $65. In the Uncommon group, about $126. So that's about $191 for the two coins you'd get from Common and Uncommon. Not a lot of variation in stated value for the coins in either group.
So now you get to the Rare group. There are 174 different possible coins you could get with stated values ranging from $130 to $23,500. But the weighted average cost (factoring in the quantity of each different coin, meaning if they are using 30 of one coin, that coin's stated value counts 30 times as much to the weighted average as a coin where there only one. This is the way to evaluate your personal odds.
And it turns out that if your buy-in cost is $595, only 35% of the coins in the Rare group would get you to breakeven after adjusting for the $191 stated value from your one Common and one Uncommon coin. Assuming the stated values are realistic.
So to me there's a roughly 35% chance of getting more stated value than you pay. Now you must factor in that the stated values are from the NGC price guide and those are not lowball prices (example: a 1990 ASE in 9.9 (equal to MS69) has a stated value of $125, and I found on on a popular retailer site for $84. So let's figure it's reasonable to estimate the stated values are 10% too high. And then you try to guess what YOU could sell them for, and let's estimate 15% less than that.
That's the value you're getting. And it works out that only 22% of the coins in the Rare group would give you enough value to get you to breakeven. In the big picture, you have a little more than a 1 in 5 chance of making out on the deal.
Now it's entirely possible that the target demographic for this thing would not find that a problem, and the thrill of the unknown is sufficient to give it a try, and that everyone understands the odds are against them. I can't relate to it as I like to choose the coins I buy.
This is an awesome analysis. Thank you VERY much for putting in the time and effort. As might be obvious, I am not a fan, but I do have to point out one thing that skews the results.
Coins only go as low as ~$40, but they go as high as $23,000. The disproportionate upside as compared to downside dictates that the odds of breakeven are low, because the potential gain ($23,000) is much greater than the potential loss (~$350). That factors into the average value of the boxes, not only for the one monster coin, but for all of the red core winners, although the vast majority will never benefit from it.
The comments here are all from coin collectors. You know, the same people who complain about a $5 admission charge for a coin show (I have actually watched someone walk away from a show upon finding out that the admission was one dollar.) The admission charge for Comic Con in San Diego last year was $47 to $69. For one day. Perhaps the VaultBox people have actually considered how their offer might be received by prospective (read: not current coin collectors) customers?
@kranky said:
By my math, the average stated "value" per coin in the Common group is about $65. In the Uncommon group, about $126. So that's about $191 for the two coins you'd get from Common and Uncommon. Not a lot of variation in stated value for the coins in either group.
So now you get to the Rare group. There are 174 different possible coins you could get with stated values ranging from $130 to $23,500. But the weighted average cost (factoring in the quantity of each different coin, meaning if they are using 30 of one coin, that coin's stated value counts 30 times as much to the weighted average as a coin where there only one. This is the way to evaluate your personal odds.
And it turns out that if your buy-in cost is $595, only 35% of the coins in the Rare group would get you to breakeven after adjusting for the $191 stated value from your one Common and one Uncommon coin. Assuming the stated values are realistic.
So to me there's a roughly 35% chance of getting more stated value than you pay. Now you must factor in that the stated values are from the NGC price guide and those are not lowball prices (example: a 1990 ASE in 9.9 (equal to MS69) has a stated value of $125, and I found on on a popular retailer site for $84. So let's figure it's reasonable to estimate the stated values are 10% too high. And then you try to guess what YOU could sell them for, and let's estimate 15% less than that.
That's the value you're getting. And it works out that only 22% of the coins in the Rare group would give you enough value to get you to breakeven. In the big picture, you have a little more than a 1 in 5 chance of making out on the deal.
Now it's entirely possible that the target demographic for this thing would not find that a problem, and the thrill of the unknown is sufficient to give it a try, and that everyone understands the odds are against them. I can't relate to it as I like to choose the coins I buy.
This is an awesome analysis. Thank you VERY much for putting in the time and effort. As might be obvious, I am not a fan, but I do have to point out one thing that skews the results.
Coins only go as low as ~$40, but they go as high as $23,000. The disproportionate upside as compared to downside dictates that the odds of breakeven are low, because the potential gain ($23,000) is much greater than the potential loss (~$350). That factors into the average value of the boxes, not only for the one monster coin, but for all of the red core winners, although the vast majority will never benefit from it.
Just something to consider.
This is flawed. 35% of the coins are break even or better per @kranky . Your odds are 35%. Period. No further adjustment is necessary. [Note: Or 22% with his 10% value adjustment. ]
It's not flawed, and I also don't disagree. I was trying to explain (or justify) why the 22% is so low. The reason is because it has to account for the huge upside as compared to the relatively modest downside. Otherwise, why on earth would anyone want to participate in any gamble where their odds of breaking even (or better) were only 1 in 5?
@jmlanzaf said:
This is, however, one of those times that ye Olde curmudgeons aren't content to simply say "not for me". They need to make all kinds of accusations and attempt to justify the "not for me".
@MasonG said:
The comments here are all from coin collectors. You know, the same people who complain about a $5 admission charge for a coin show (I have actually watched someone walk away from a show upon finding out that the admission was one dollar.) The admission charge for Comic Con in San Diego last year was $47 to $69. For one day. Perhaps the VaultBox people have actually considered how their offer might be received by prospective (read: not current coin collectors) customers?
Just something else to think about.
Yup. Very different audiences. For that reason, even though the card crowd seems to love a blind gamble, why would anyone think they are going to get excited over a $600 pull, with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 score, when the prize is not LeBron, Kyrie, KD, The GOAT, The Judge, etc., but 100 year old renditions of Liberty in precious metal form?
We'll see, but the fact remains that people who won't pay to enter a coin show won't pay a premium to full retail for a 1 in 800 chance to turn $600 into $23,000, with a 78% chance of losing up to several hundred dollars, while the folks who like to gamble already have in person and online casinos, lotteries, sports betting, fantasy sports, sports card pulls, etc., and don't need to get involved in a hobby they otherwise have no interest in, just for the thrill of the pull.
It's interesting, and I can't wait to see what happens. In particular, whether they have website issues and a quick sell out, given the limited quantity, hype, order limits, etc. If you have no trouble logging in and ordering, then these aren't going to be a huge deal, no matter what they say.
It's difficult to impossible to get one of 200,000 hot issues offered by the Mint at the issue price. If it's easy to get one of the 800 of these, then the hype is going to turn out to have been far more sizzle than steak. If it sells out in an hour, then I'll give them credit for having much greater vision and foresight than I do. Given that I watched one of the most valuable coins be eliminated from the pool before sales even began, I wouldn't touch these with your money.
The next generation of numismatists is already involved in actual wheeling and dealing, as observed by many at the recent FUN show, and is unlikely to be whoever is attracted to the thrill of the pull represented by VaultBox, any more than it is represented by whoever is buying from GovMint or TV.
They tend to be a very specialized subset of the hobby who do not understand value, and are constantly getting ripped off, as represented by the difference between what they pay and what they buy is worth, as compared to typical retail markups. VaultBox will be more of the same, no matter how modest or excessive the markups over wholesale or retail turn out to be, because the many will be subsidizing the wins of the few. So the many will be deeply buried from Day One, just like HSN's customers are, and will be unlikely to stick around for the long haul.
@MasonG said:
The comments here are all from coin collectors. You know, the same people who complain about a $5 admission charge for a coin show (I have actually watched someone walk away from a show upon finding out that the admission was one dollar.) The admission charge for Comic Con in San Diego last year was $47 to $69. For one day. Perhaps the VaultBox people have actually considered how their offer might be received by prospective (read: not current coin collectors) customers?
Just something else to think about.
Yup. Very different audiences. For that reason, even though the card crowd seems to love a blind gamble, why would anyone think they are going to get excited over a $600 pull, with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 score, when the prize is not LeBron, Kyrie, KD, The GOAT, The Judge, etc., but 100 year old renditions of Liberty in precious metal form?
Why? I don't know. I suspect the VaultBox people have thought about it. Don't you?
@NJCoin said:
We'll see, but the fact remains that people who won't pay to enter a coin show won't pay a premium to full retail for a 1 in 800 chance to make $23,000 with a 78% chance of losing up to several hundred dollars, while the folks who like to gamble already have in person and online casinos, lotteries, sports betting, fantasy sports, sports card pulls, etc., and don't need to get involved in a hobby they otherwise have no interest in, just for the thrill of the pull.
Ok. So the VaultBox idea bombs and you get to say "I told you so." How cool will that be?
@NJCoin said:
It's interesting, and I can't wait to see what happens. But the next generation of numismatists is already involved in actual wheeling and dealing, as observed by many at the recent FUN show, and is unlikely to be whoever is attracted to the thrill of the pull represented by VaultBox, any more than it is represented by whoever is buying from GovMint or TV.
I'm sure the next generation will be just as varied in their interests as all past generations have been. Aren't you?
@NJCoin said:
They tend to be a very specialized subset of the hobby who do not understand value, and are constantly getting ripped off, as represented by the difference between what they pay and what they buy is worth, as compared to typical retail markups. VaultBox will be more of the same, no matter how modest or excessive the markups over wholesale or retail turn out to be, because the many will be subsidizing the wins of the few. So the many will be deeply buried from Day One, just like HSN's customers are, and will be unlikely to stick around for the long haul.
No doubt that'll happen, too. On the other hand, my sister's husband bought a scratch-off ticket last fall and they won a million dollars. You can't win if you don't play, right?
@MasonG said:
The comments here are all from coin collectors. You know, the same people who complain about a $5 admission charge for a coin show (I have actually watched someone walk away from a show upon finding out that the admission was one dollar.) The admission charge for Comic Con in San Diego last year was $47 to $69. For one day. Perhaps the VaultBox people have actually considered how their offer might be received by prospective (read: not current coin collectors) customers?
Just something else to think about.
Yup. Very different audiences. For that reason, even though the card crowd seems to love a blind gamble, why would anyone think they are going to get excited over a $600 pull, with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 score, when the prize is not LeBron, Kyrie, KD, The GOAT, The Judge, etc., but 100 year old renditions of Liberty in precious metal form?
Why? I don't know. I suspect the VaultBox people have thought about it. Don't you?
@NJCoin said:
We'll see, but the fact remains that people who won't pay to enter a coin show won't pay a premium to full retail for a 1 in 800 chance to make $23,000 with a 78% chance of losing up to several hundred dollars, while the folks who like to gamble already have in person and online casinos, lotteries, sports betting, fantasy sports, sports card pulls, etc., and don't need to get involved in a hobby they otherwise have no interest in, just for the thrill of the pull.
Ok. So the VaultBox idea bombs and you get to say "I told you so." How cool will that be?
@NJCoin said:
It's interesting, and I can't wait to see what happens. But the next generation of numismatists is already involved in actual wheeling and dealing, as observed by many at the recent FUN show, and is unlikely to be whoever is attracted to the thrill of the pull represented by VaultBox, any more than it is represented by whoever is buying from GovMint or TV.
I'm sure the next generation will be just as varied in their interests as all past generations have been. Aren't you?
@NJCoin said:
They tend to be a very specialized subset of the hobby who do not understand value, and are constantly getting ripped off, as represented by the difference between what they pay and what they buy is worth, as compared to typical retail markups. VaultBox will be more of the same, no matter how modest or excessive the markups over wholesale or retail turn out to be, because the many will be subsidizing the wins of the few. So the many will be deeply buried from Day One, just like HSN's customers are, and will be unlikely to stick around for the long haul.
No doubt that'll happen, too. On the other hand, my sister's husband bought a scratch-off ticket last fall and they won a million dollars. You can't win if you don't play, right?
My latest thought.... why isn't VaultBox selling these directly on ebay themselves? Auction starting at $595? Cut out the 'middleman' and take more profits?!
Against ebay rules? Some question on legality? Just curious. Or maybe it really is a way to promote the new grading standard by NGCX?
@tincup said:
My latest thought.... why isn't VaultBox selling these directly on ebay themselves? Auction starting at $595? Cut out the 'middleman' and take more profits?!
Against ebay rules? Some question on legality? Just curious. Or maybe it really is a way to promote the new grading standard by NGCX?
How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman?
@tincup said:
My latest thought.... why isn't VaultBox selling these directly on ebay themselves? Auction starting at $595? Cut out the 'middleman' and take more profits?!
Against ebay rules? Some question on legality? Just curious. Or maybe it really is a way to promote the new grading standard by NGCX?
How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman?
Who is the middle man? Vaultbox is selling the boxes directly. There is no middle man?
Exactly. Which is why I asked tincup about his idea of VaultBox selling through eBay, in order to cut out the middleman. Seems to me, selling on eBay is adding a middleman into the deal.
@tincup said:
My latest thought.... why isn't VaultBox selling these directly on ebay themselves? Auction starting at $595? Cut out the 'middleman' and take more profits?!
Against ebay rules? Some question on legality? Just curious. Or maybe it really is a way to promote the new grading standard by NGCX?
Because why should they pay eBay fees? Why doesn't Amazon or Walmart sell on eBay?
They are building a brand, website, etc. They invested a ton creating and marketing this. They priced it to move, based on whatever research they did. If you watch the video, they claim to have only marked up the first series modestly in order to create demand and momentum.
Whatever happens, they sure didn't want to drag it out over days on eBay, and maybe risk demand being tepid, in front of the whole world to see. They surely also didn't want to see their pricing decision undermined by bidding going so high that the boxes would be even worse deals than some of us think they will be as-is.
Selling 800 of anything at the same time on an auction site makes it hard to create bidding competition. The way to go would be using Buy It Now, which is exactly what they are doing on their own site, at $595 plus shipping and insurance.
EBay has total scam seeded bank rolls -- why would this be against any rule? Everything they are doing is fully disclosed.
EBay IS a middle man. There is none here. VaultBox is selling direct on its website. They want the price to be $595 to provide at least some value to the buyers. Not less, and not more.
That's why they are not leaving pricing up to the whims of an auction they can't control, and why they are not paying a third party a commission to make sales, after promoting the hell out of this on the internet and through whatever other vehicles they used. Whatever else anyone thinks, the people behind this are serious people who know how to sell. They don't need eBay.
It's not meant to be. It's designed to try to bring in the folks who enjoy busting open sports card boxes. For all of the reasons we have been spouting ad infinitum, it's not meant to appeal to established collectors, who are unlikely to be willing to pay a premium to full retail, without even knowing just what they are buying, due to the fact that a lottery ticket is included in each box.
@fathom said:
The differences in valuation of items advertised as contained in the boxes is problematic IMO.
This. I also think the valuations are grossly inflated. It seems like a scheme to obtain top dollar plus for bullion with fancy labels. Hard pass for me.
Poppycock! This is just another grab bag idea. It could work well for the sellers because of the big value coins that you could get, but most buyers will be disappointed. Anyone who buys a Vault box, please let us know what you get! $600 is a lot of money to some people but is a drop in the bucket for others.
Would you rather buy 600 one dollar lottery tickets or 1 vault box? Coins collectors may well opt for the vault box.
HMMM!! Still can't determine if I want one or not.
" How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman? "
My post was not worded very well. Was quickly typed out while on the road.
The thought is... the middleman is you and me... more specifically those who will buy the 'box and immediately post on ebay. If they end up at $950.... that is a decent profit going to the 'middleman'. That could very well be captured by VaultBox themselves by listing.
But of course... as mentioned... that is more hassle, time, etc. and risk. I'm sure VaultBox probably looked at different venues, methods, etc. And decided the simple "one and done" is the best way to go. Sell out the offering, let others take the risk, and move on to the next offering.
And of course... there is still questions on the legal aspects, etc. Is it a lottery?
It was just a quick thought when I was on the road. And when I say " the middleman is you and me ", that is just a way of saying those who want to make a flip, or like to gamble on something like this. The "middleman" is the person who is hoping to get that $23,000 coin and is likely to immediately sell back or flip on ebay.
Will be interesting, how ever it turns out. But yes.... not for me.
" I don't think that's how they foresee this unfolding. Most people are supposed to want to open the box not try to flip it sealed. "
Yep! That temptation/desire is there to participate.... even for me! what's behind door #3????! There is a part of me that wants to give it a try. But.... logic tells me..... nah (in times past, would occasionally try lottery, similar games of chance, etc.... never had much luck in those types of things. ) Good luck to any who want or will play the game!
@tincup said:
" How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman? "
My post was not worded very well. Was quickly typed out while on the road.
The thought is... the middleman is you and me... more specifically those who will buy the 'box and immediately post on ebay. If they end up at $950.... that is a decent profit going to the 'middleman'. That could very well be captured by VaultBox themselves by listing.
But of course... as mentioned... that is more hassle, time, etc. and risk. I'm sure VaultBox probably looked at different venues, methods, etc. And decided the simple "one and done" is the best way to go. Sell out the offering, let others take the risk, and move on to the next offering.
And of course... there is still questions on the legal aspects, etc. Is it a lottery?
It was just a quick thought when I was on the road. And when I say " the middleman is you and me ", that is just a way of saying those who want to make a flip, or like to gamble on something like this. The "middleman" is the person who is hoping to get that $23,000 coin and is likely to immediately sell back or flip on ebay.
Will be interesting, how ever it turns out. But yes.... not for me.
I don't think that's how they foresee this unfolding. Most people are supposed to want to open the box not try to flip it sealed.
This ^^^^.
Also, they are not trying to squeeze the last dollar out of every box. They priced these to sell out, quickly, and need to leave something on the table for at least some people to receive boxes worth more than the purchase price.
If the market would bid them up to $950, sure, they could make an extra $350 a pop now, but that would just create even more pissed off people losing even more money than they will have at $595, which would dim the prospects for future series. Which is why they are not just pricing them at $950 right now.
Remember, they are controlling everything, including the pricing. They can do whatever they want, with no help from eBay necessary. The people behind this have a ton of experience in the space.
@pruebas said:
Don’t forget that Vault Box will be subject to sales tax in most states, even those with sales tax exemptions on coins or bullion.
You are not buying coins or bullion. You are buying a Vault Box, which is not exempt.
Immediate 6-10% loss.
Where are you getting that from? The VaultBox absolutely is a box of slabbed coins, which would have the same exemption as any other box of slabbed coins. My understanding is that bullion is strictly unslabbed coins whose value is derived from the metal.
Even a slabbed 2023 MS 69 ASE that sells for $59 can claim to be something other than a raw ASE that sells for $30, and would be eligible for a tax exemption if bought in sufficient quantities to meet any minimum necessary for an exemption.
From their Terms and Conditions:
"Sales Tax. California residents will be charged sales tax. Please note that the purchase of coins and/or bullion with a price in excess of One Thousand, Five Hundred Dollars ($1,500.00) is exempt from California sales tax. This $1,500.00 rule only applies to coins appearing on the same invoice and does not apply to catalogs, numismatic accessories or membership fees. Residents of states other than California should consult their tax advisor as to the applicability of sales and use tax in their states. International Clients: Duties may be assessed by your country’s customs office and are the sole responsibility of the Buyer."
Looks like they are only going to be collecting tax in CA, and only because the invoices will be under $1500, not because VaultBoxes do not qualify as coins or bullion.
@pruebas said:
Don’t forget that Vault Box will be subject to sales tax in most states, even those with sales tax exemptions on coins or bullion.
You are not buying coins or bullion. You are buying a Vault Box, which is not exempt.
Immediate 6-10% loss.
Where are you getting that from? The VaultBox absolutely is a box of slabbed coins, which would have the same exemption as any other box of slabbed coins. My understanding is that bullion is strictly unslabbed coins whose value is derived from the metal.
Even a slabbed 2023 MS 69 ASE that sells for $59 can claim to be something other than a raw ASE that sells for $30, and would be eligible for a tax exemption if bought in sufficient quantities.
From their Terms and Conditions:
"Sales Tax. California residents will be charged sales tax. Please note that the purchase of coins and/or bullion with a price in excess of One Thousand, Five Hundred Dollars ($1,500.00) is exempt from California sales tax. This $1,500.00 rule only applies to coins appearing on the same invoice and does not apply to catalogs, numismatic accessories or membership fees. Residents of states other than California should consult their tax advisor as to the applicability of sales and use tax in their states. International Clients: Duties may be assessed by your country’s customs office and are the sole responsibility of the Buyer."
Looks like they are only going to be collecting tax in CA, and only because the invoices will be under $1500, not because VaultBoxes do not qualify as coins or bullion.
Correct about the minimum qualifying amounts (unless you buy 2-3).
But I suspect you would loose the argument to the taxing authorities that the actual product is a coin. You are buying a derivative product that happens to be composed of coins.
And I further expect that VB will not want to waste money testing that theory in every state court, so they will just charge the tax.
Comments
No. That is their current Instant Offer for the coins in the holder. These are brand new and exclusive. There is no NGC price guide for them. They are each one-offs in those holders.
And Blake said they didn't consider it, and have no idea. Not a denial.
It's paper and plastic surrounding the coins, not lead. Can anything penetrate that and perform an accurate analysis without breaking the seals? If so, then it is possible that sealed boxes can be sorted, even without external markings.
Won't be able to tell one $50 AGE from another, but might be able to separate gold, platinum and palladium from silver, and fractionals from full ounce coins.
Okay. What would you like to know? Why @DeplorableDan is likely to do better selling common coins pulled from VaultBoxes there than accepting VaultBox Instant Offers?
Probably for the same reason you chose to sell hundreds of slabbed Eagles on eBay. It will represent the highest, most accurate value of what is pulled from the boxes, aside from the big scores.
I fully agree with your sentiment, right up through salting a few valuable coins among around 2,000 bullion coins in slabs that are being sold at inflated prices, but respectfully disagree that the fact that NGC selling exclusive, customized holders and labels implies an affiliation. They do it for all the big submitters, as do all the other TPGs. No affiliation, other than client/vendor.
VaultBox program. NGCX did the grading, labeling, holdering, packaging and sealing as a third party vendor. They are not otherwise partners in it, any more than they are in anything any of the TV guys market.
Ah I see thanks for the information
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People keep falling for “unseached rolls” of cents with a VDB at one end, of which there are thousands of such rolls in existence, so why not this???
I’d you read posts before posting you will see that I had acquired new information and stood corrected.
But thanks for the added redundancy
It inflates margins resulting in unhappy potential collectors.
And major companies are attaching themselves to the enticement. I understand the quest to get the new coin grading standard out to new collectors.
The differences in valuation of items advertised as contained in the boxes is problematic IMO.
So what? The goal here isn't to massage them for years in an attempt to maximize profit. It's to see what the box is worth immediately after purchase.
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True, but the numismatic community has been able to successfully separate the value and credibility the TPGs attach to classic coins from the mass market modern label mania that generates millions of dollars a year in revenue for them. They are not "attaching" themselves to anything. They are just providing a service and making a buck in so doing.
Why wouldn't it be? It was the best way for you to maximize value after not buying at retail and not trying to sell within a week. I'm sure if you could do better wholesaling to another dealer that you would do so. Why would it be any different for him?
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How much time do you have on your hands?
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By my math, the average stated "value" per coin in the Common group is about $65. In the Uncommon group, about $126. So that's about $191 for the two coins you'd get from Common and Uncommon. Not a lot of variation in stated value for the coins in either group.
So now you get to the Rare group. There are 174 different possible coins you could get with stated values ranging from $130 to $23,500. But the weighted average cost (factoring in the quantity of each different coin, meaning if they are using 30 of one coin, that coin's stated value counts 30 times as much to the weighted average as a coin where there only one. This is the way to evaluate your personal odds.
And it turns out that if your buy-in cost is $595, only 35% of the coins in the Rare group would get you to breakeven after adjusting for the $191 stated value from your one Common and one Uncommon coin. Assuming the stated values are realistic.
So to me there's a roughly 35% chance of getting more stated value than you pay. Now you must factor in that the stated values are from the NGC price guide and those are not lowball prices (example: a 1990 ASE in 9.9 (equal to MS69) has a stated value of $125, and I found on on a popular retailer site for $84. So let's figure it's reasonable to estimate the stated values are 10% too high. And then you try to guess what YOU could sell them for, and let's estimate 15% less than that.
That's the value you're getting. And it works out that only 22% of the coins in the Rare group would give you enough value to get you to breakeven. In the big picture, you have a little more than a 1 in 5 chance of making out on the deal.
Now it's entirely possible that the target demographic for this thing would not find that a problem, and the thrill of the unknown is sufficient to give it a try, and that everyone understands the odds are against them. I can't relate to it as I like to choose the coins I buy.
New collectors, please educate yourself before spending money on coins; there are people who believe that using numismatic knowledge to rip the naïve is what this hobby is all about.
This is an awesome analysis. Thank you VERY much for putting in the time and effort. As might be obvious, I am not a fan, but I do have to point out one thing that skews the results.
Coins only go as low as ~$40, but they go as high as $23,000. The disproportionate upside as compared to downside dictates that the odds of breakeven are low, because the potential gain ($23,000) is much greater than the potential loss (~$350). That factors into the average value of the boxes, not only for the one monster coin, but for all of the red core winners, although the vast majority will never benefit from it.
Just something to consider.
The comments here are all from coin collectors. You know, the same people who complain about a $5 admission charge for a coin show (I have actually watched someone walk away from a show upon finding out that the admission was one dollar.) The admission charge for Comic Con in San Diego last year was $47 to $69. For one day. Perhaps the VaultBox people have actually considered how their offer might be received by prospective (read: not current coin collectors) customers?
Just something else to think about.
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It's not flawed, and I also don't disagree. I was trying to explain (or justify) why the 22% is so low. The reason is because it has to account for the huge upside as compared to the relatively modest downside. Otherwise, why on earth would anyone want to participate in any gamble where their odds of breaking even (or better) were only 1 in 5?
Hard to argue with that.
Yup. Very different audiences. For that reason, even though the card crowd seems to love a blind gamble, why would anyone think they are going to get excited over a $600 pull, with a 1 in 800 shot at a $23,000 score, when the prize is not LeBron, Kyrie, KD, The GOAT, The Judge, etc., but 100 year old renditions of Liberty in precious metal form?
We'll see, but the fact remains that people who won't pay to enter a coin show won't pay a premium to full retail for a 1 in 800 chance to turn $600 into $23,000, with a 78% chance of losing up to several hundred dollars, while the folks who like to gamble already have in person and online casinos, lotteries, sports betting, fantasy sports, sports card pulls, etc., and don't need to get involved in a hobby they otherwise have no interest in, just for the thrill of the pull.
It's interesting, and I can't wait to see what happens. In particular, whether they have website issues and a quick sell out, given the limited quantity, hype, order limits, etc. If you have no trouble logging in and ordering, then these aren't going to be a huge deal, no matter what they say.
It's difficult to impossible to get one of 200,000 hot issues offered by the Mint at the issue price. If it's easy to get one of the 800 of these, then the hype is going to turn out to have been far more sizzle than steak. If it sells out in an hour, then I'll give them credit for having much greater vision and foresight than I do. Given that I watched one of the most valuable coins be eliminated from the pool before sales even began, I wouldn't touch these with your money.
The next generation of numismatists is already involved in actual wheeling and dealing, as observed by many at the recent FUN show, and is unlikely to be whoever is attracted to the thrill of the pull represented by VaultBox, any more than it is represented by whoever is buying from GovMint or TV.
They tend to be a very specialized subset of the hobby who do not understand value, and are constantly getting ripped off, as represented by the difference between what they pay and what they buy is worth, as compared to typical retail markups. VaultBox will be more of the same, no matter how modest or excessive the markups over wholesale or retail turn out to be, because the many will be subsidizing the wins of the few. So the many will be deeply buried from Day One, just like HSN's customers are, and will be unlikely to stick around for the long haul.
Why? I don't know. I suspect the VaultBox people have thought about it. Don't you?
Ok. So the VaultBox idea bombs and you get to say "I told you so." How cool will that be?
I'm sure the next generation will be just as varied in their interests as all past generations have been. Aren't you?
No doubt that'll happen, too. On the other hand, my sister's husband bought a scratch-off ticket last fall and they won a million dollars. You can't win if you don't play, right?
Agreed!
This is the Vault box I want to buy from, I can add a little Red paint for grins & giggles
USN & USAF retired 1971-1993
Successful Transactions with more than 100 Members
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My latest thought.... why isn't VaultBox selling these directly on ebay themselves? Auction starting at $595? Cut out the 'middleman' and take more profits?!
Against ebay rules? Some question on legality? Just curious. Or maybe it really is a way to promote the new grading standard by NGCX?
It's not a item for me.
How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman?
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Exactly. Which is why I asked tincup about his idea of VaultBox selling through eBay, in order to cut out the middleman. Seems to me, selling on eBay is adding a middleman into the deal.
Because why should they pay eBay fees? Why doesn't Amazon or Walmart sell on eBay?
They are building a brand, website, etc. They invested a ton creating and marketing this. They priced it to move, based on whatever research they did. If you watch the video, they claim to have only marked up the first series modestly in order to create demand and momentum.
Whatever happens, they sure didn't want to drag it out over days on eBay, and maybe risk demand being tepid, in front of the whole world to see. They surely also didn't want to see their pricing decision undermined by bidding going so high that the boxes would be even worse deals than some of us think they will be as-is.
Selling 800 of anything at the same time on an auction site makes it hard to create bidding competition. The way to go would be using Buy It Now, which is exactly what they are doing on their own site, at $595 plus shipping and insurance.
EBay has total scam seeded bank rolls -- why would this be against any rule? Everything they are doing is fully disclosed.
EBay IS a middle man. There is none here. VaultBox is selling direct on its website. They want the price to be $595 to provide at least some value to the buyers. Not less, and not more.
That's why they are not leaving pricing up to the whims of an auction they can't control, and why they are not paying a third party a commission to make sales, after promoting the hell out of this on the internet and through whatever other vehicles they used. Whatever else anyone thinks, the people behind this are serious people who know how to sell. They don't need eBay.
It's not meant to be. It's designed to try to bring in the folks who enjoy busting open sports card boxes. For all of the reasons we have been spouting ad infinitum, it's not meant to appeal to established collectors, who are unlikely to be willing to pay a premium to full retail, without even knowing just what they are buying, due to the fact that a lottery ticket is included in each box.
*
The more qualities observed in a coin, the more desirable that coin becomes!
My Jefferson Nickel Collection
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This. I also think the valuations are grossly inflated. It seems like a scheme to obtain top dollar plus for bullion with fancy labels. Hard pass for me.
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Poppycock! This is just another grab bag idea. It could work well for the sellers because of the big value coins that you could get, but most buyers will be disappointed. Anyone who buys a Vault box, please let us know what you get! $600 is a lot of money to some people but is a drop in the bucket for others.
Would you rather buy 600 one dollar lottery tickets or 1 vault box? Coins collectors may well opt for the vault box.
HMMM!! Still can't determine if I want one or not.
" How is selling through eBay cutting out the middleman? "
My post was not worded very well. Was quickly typed out while on the road.
The thought is... the middleman is you and me... more specifically those who will buy the 'box and immediately post on ebay. If they end up at $950.... that is a decent profit going to the 'middleman'. That could very well be captured by VaultBox themselves by listing.
But of course... as mentioned... that is more hassle, time, etc. and risk. I'm sure VaultBox probably looked at different venues, methods, etc. And decided the simple "one and done" is the best way to go. Sell out the offering, let others take the risk, and move on to the next offering.
And of course... there is still questions on the legal aspects, etc. Is it a lottery?
It was just a quick thought when I was on the road. And when I say " the middleman is you and me ", that is just a way of saying those who want to make a flip, or like to gamble on something like this. The "middleman" is the person who is hoping to get that $23,000 coin and is likely to immediately sell back or flip on ebay.
Will be interesting, how ever it turns out. But yes.... not for me.
54
" I don't think that's how they foresee this unfolding. Most people are supposed to want to open the box not try to flip it sealed. "
Yep! That temptation/desire is there to participate.... even for me! what's behind door #3????! There is a part of me that wants to give it a try. But.... logic tells me..... nah (in times past, would occasionally try lottery, similar games of chance, etc.... never had much luck in those types of things. ) Good luck to any who want or will play the game!
This ^^^^.
Also, they are not trying to squeeze the last dollar out of every box. They priced these to sell out, quickly, and need to leave something on the table for at least some people to receive boxes worth more than the purchase price.
If the market would bid them up to $950, sure, they could make an extra $350 a pop now, but that would just create even more pissed off people losing even more money than they will have at $595, which would dim the prospects for future series. Which is why they are not just pricing them at $950 right now.
Remember, they are controlling everything, including the pricing. They can do whatever they want, with no help from eBay necessary. The people behind this have a ton of experience in the space.
Don’t forget that Vault Box will be subject to sales tax in most states, even those with sales tax exemptions on coins or bullion.
You are not buying coins or bullion. You are buying a Vault Box, which is not exempt.
Immediate 6-10% loss.
Never have I been so disinterested in my own thread! 😆
Dead Cat Waltz Exonumia
"Coin collecting for outcasts..."
Where are you getting that from? The VaultBox absolutely is a box of slabbed coins, which would have the same exemption as any other box of slabbed coins. My understanding is that bullion is strictly unslabbed coins whose value is derived from the metal.
Even a slabbed 2023 MS 69 ASE that sells for $59 can claim to be something other than a raw ASE that sells for $30, and would be eligible for a tax exemption if bought in sufficient quantities to meet any minimum necessary for an exemption.
From their Terms and Conditions:
"Sales Tax. California residents will be charged sales tax. Please note that the purchase of coins and/or bullion with a price in excess of One Thousand, Five Hundred Dollars ($1,500.00) is exempt from California sales tax. This $1,500.00 rule only applies to coins appearing on the same invoice and does not apply to catalogs, numismatic accessories or membership fees. Residents of states other than California should consult their tax advisor as to the applicability of sales and use tax in their states. International Clients: Duties may be assessed by your country’s customs office and are the sole responsibility of the Buyer."
Looks like they are only going to be collecting tax in CA, and only because the invoices will be under $1500, not because VaultBoxes do not qualify as coins or bullion.
Correct about the minimum qualifying amounts (unless you buy 2-3).
But I suspect you would loose the argument to the taxing authorities that the actual product is a coin. You are buying a derivative product that happens to be composed of coins.
And I further expect that VB will not want to waste money testing that theory in every state court, so they will just charge the tax.