2021 inflation report thread

PerryHall

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

RedneckHB

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

If the Fed raises rates does your mortgage rate increase?

PerryHall

@cohodk said:

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

If the Fed raises rates does your mortgage rate increase?

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

RedneckHB

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

If the Fed raises rates does your mortgage rate increase?

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

Ok......so if you had a mortgage would the rate increase?

taxmad

@cohodk said:

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

Ok......so if you had a mortgage would the rate increase?

If a person had an ARM - yes.

derryb

the printing press has made national debt irrelevant. The problem is that consumers don't have one, their debt is real.

streeter

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

8x lol.
Seriously, expected to triple next ten yrs, but that is at current rates.

You mean you are too lazy to figure this out?

RobM

Let's pretend for a moment that fed rate ultimately gets back to around 3%, right where it was for a long time circa 1993. Total US debt in 1993 was $4.4T, and the interest expense was nearly $300B, and the 10yr bond was $6%. None of those numbers are considered historically high, or out of the norm. If we extrapolate that interest expense to some time in 2023, interest payment on the debt would exceed $2T, or nearly half of current revenues. That's main reason why stock market is not collapsing.... JP and WS know that the Fed cannot, and will not credibly raise rates to meaningfully fight inflation.

DrBuster

About to feel the burn when the pet spa finishes up our dudes xmas groom. Up ~20% over the past year basically.

derryb

so, what did the FED tell us yesterday?

They told us that they have been wrong all along. (but to trust them now)

RedneckHB

@streeter said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

8x lol.
Seriously, expected to triple next ten yrs, but that is at current rates.

You mean you are too lazy to figure this out?

So you dont know. Incapable?

How many dollars would it actually cost?

RedneckHB

@taxmad said:

@cohodk said:

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

Ok......so if you had a mortgage would the rate increase?

If a person had an ARM - yes.

Better lock it in then, right?

blitzdude

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

If the Fed raises rates does your mortgage rate increase?

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

No property tax? No income tax? Lucky u!! CNGRTS!!!!!

PerryHall

@blitzdude said:

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@PerryHall said:

@cohodk said:

@streeter said:
IF...they in so much as raise rates from present 1/4% to 2% level, the cost of servicing the NATIONAL DEBT would turn the budget on it's head.

>

How much would the debt service increase?

What's 2% of $30 trillion?

If the Fed raises rates does your mortgage rate increase?

I own my house so I don't have a mortgage. I have no debt other than credit card charges which I pay off in full every month.

No property tax? No income tax? Lucky u!! CNGRTS!!!!!

I don't consider taxes to be debt when I pay it as soon as I get the tax bill. When you go grocery shopping, do you consider the grocery bill to be debt when you pay it before leaving?

derryb

money owed is debt, even very short term debt. Do you owe the store money at checkout?

PerryHall

@derryb said:
money owed is debt, even very short term debt. Do you owe the store money at checkout?

You guys can sure split hairs. I don't consider a cash transaction to be 30 seconds of debt.

derryb

@PerryHall said:

@derryb said:
money owed is debt, even very short term debt. Do you owe the store money at checkout?

You guys can sure split hairs. I don't consider a cash transaction to be 30 seconds of debt.

how about 45 seconds? one minute?
I don't believe the definition of debt includes a time limit.

How about "transitory" inflation? One month? six months? lol

ctf_error_coins

Fake Inflation is overhyped for sure.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling the sky is falling, repeat over and over again.

blitzdude

@ErrorsOnCoins said:
Fake Inflation is overhyped for sure.

The sky is falling, the sky is falling the sky is falling, repeat over and over again.

Not sure if the sky is falling but I sure am liking the looks of that gold chart. Prepare for BLASTOFF!!!

bigjpst

Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake

MsMorrisine

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shrinkflation.asp#toc-what-is-shrinkflation

And inflation reports need to account for it.

derryb

@bigjpst said:
Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake

my car runs on OJ as well.

bigjpst

@derryb said:

@bigjpst said:
Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake

my car runs on OJ as well.

Gas prices are clearly higher but I feel that is by design. The (current)policy makers prefer high price gas to push people and industry into alternatives. IMO
I only posted about the OJ because the shrinking of packages so that they can hide the price increase pisses me off more than if I have to pay more for old size. Then people post there is no inflation. Ridiculous.

taxmad

@bigjpst said:
Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake

All these companies jumping on the ESG bandwagon are the same ones shrinking their packaging. The bulk of material used in packaging is on the top and bottom, so on a per ounce of product sold their carbon footprint will be higher selling 4 12oz containers than 3 16oz containers. Tells you how seriously they really take climate change...

blitzdude

God bless clean alternative energy! The world has finally decided it's time to move forward. Fossil fuel polluting dinosaurs will soon be nothing more than a bad memory. Evolution and innovation are both wonderful things. Happy Holidays!!!

derryb

fossil fuels are infinite, man has literally only scratched the surface. Their refiners want you to believe otherwise. Same will happen with alternatives. Pick your poison but be prepared to have your eyes gouged either way. plenty of kool-aid to go around and lots of EV car batteries to dispose of; maybe blitzboy will donate a landfill.

taxmad

@blitzdude said:
God bless clean alternative energy! The world has finally decided it's time to move forward. Fossil fuel polluting dinosaurs will soon be nothing more than a bad memory. Evolution and innovation are both wonderful things. Happy Holidays!!!

You sure have an awesome sense of humor blitz - sadly some won't take your post as satire and actually believe that unicorn farts will power the world into the next decade...

streeter

I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read some of these posts.

derryb

@streeter said:
I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read some of these posts.

let reality be your guide.

RedneckHB

@derryb said:

@streeter said:
I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I read some of these posts.

let reality be your guide.

And fortunately there are many realities to choose from on this forum. Lol

derryb

Rickards: The Great Supply Chain Collapse

Great insight into just how complex and fragile the global supply system really is.

blitzdude

@derryb said:
Rickards: The Great Supply Chain Collapse

Great insight into just how complex and fragile the global supply system really is.

Plenty of butter and beans available over here. Rickards is a fear mongering snake oil gutter peddler. Bulgarian propaganda is not reality to the majority. RGDS!

derryb

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
Rickards: The Great Supply Chain Collapse

Great insight into just how complex and fragile the global supply system really is.

Plenty of butter and beans available over here. Rickards is a fear mongering snake oil gutter peddler. Bulgarian propaganda is not reality to the majority. RGDS!

The AmeriKa version.

Stay in the woods! You probably wouldn't survive the real world. Even preppers can't hide from what lies ahead. Butter and bean last only so long. Don't fret, I'm prepped for steak and asparagus for years to come.

RedneckHB

@derryb said:
Don't fret, I'm prepped for steak and asparagus for years to come.

Just as long as no one else likes steak and asparagus.

RedneckHB

@derryb said:
Stay in the woods! You probably wouldn't survive the real world. Even preppers can't hide from what lies ahead.

What do yoi think lies ahead?

derryb

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
Stay in the woods! You probably wouldn't survive the real world. Even preppers can't hide from what lies ahead.

What do yoi think lies ahead?

RedneckHB

@derryb said:

@cohodk said:

@derryb said:
Stay in the woods! You probably wouldn't survive the real world. Even preppers can't hide from what lies ahead.

What do yoi think lies ahead?

Artistic outlet covers?

I think Blitz and everyone else will be able to manage artistic outlet covers.

Higashiyama

The supply “chain” is better described as a “web” - it is resilient with many redundancies. COVID has helped to illustrate this.

RedneckHB

@Higashiyama said:
The supply “chain” is better described as a “web” - it is resilient with many redundancies. COVID has helped to illustrate this.

Exactly. And just like a spider web, they can appear quite fragile, yet are remarkably strong and still function quite well even when damaged.

A benefit of this supply chain disruption is that it has shown where weaknesses exist so they can be strengthened and more efficient.

tincup

"just in time" inventory control is also part of the problem. Factories and industries used to keep sufficient inventories such that they could keep running for some time without interruptions. Then, they started to shift to "just in time" as needed... and relied on dependable? supply chains and transportation to get the parts, supplies, etc. when needed. Certainly saved many dollars by not having to keep large warehouses of inventory. But I remember thinking, when the trend started... this is a disaster waiting to happen...

crito_is_baaack

Nah, the problem is nobody enforced anti-trust law the last couple of decades and mega corps like Walmart and Amazon became "vertically integrated". Nobody can compete with these monopolists. That's why you have so few choices and prices can be so easily manipulated.

streeter

If you are living rural, stacking oats as a way of life...bless your heart. That's probably where you'll stay until you pass.
Might be a good idea to accumulate capital and resources ' just in case'. PM's are only a part of a 10-20+% diversification program. You can buy and hold and/or trade. Some people get it, some don't. The people who don't get it frequently don't understand what they don't get. I think it's hereditary.

derryb

@cohodk said:

@Higashiyama said:
The supply “chain” is better described as a “web” - it is resilient with many redundancies. COVID has helped to illustrate this.

Exactly. And just like a spider web, they can appear quite fragile, yet are remarkably strong and still function quite well even when damaged.

The residents of Long Beach would certainly agree that appearances are everything.

and a consumer could argue that the appearance of empty shelves
is not a sign of a "remarkably strong" supply chain.

RobM

Wait a second, Just 13 ships at anchor in that photo. Not so bad. Until one realizes that the rest have been ordered to wait between 50 and 150 miles offshore.

I think sometimes in this forum we take extreme positions. IMO, the supply chain is somewhere in the middle. Somewhat resilient, but also quite vulnerable. We have all seen issues during Covid. But where would something like a pandemic with the potential to kill well less than 1% of the population (not trying to underestimate the fact that Covid is still serious and does kill, but that is the reality) rank in the overall severity of supply chain stress? Probably somewhere in the middle.

derryb

Fact is the supply chain is not "resilient" nor are is it "remarkably strong and still function quite well even when damaged." As the Rickards link shows, is very fragile and very dependent on all the links working as designed.

One bad link and the chain is broken. There are few to no backups in the international supply chain. One estimate I recall claims that in the event of a nationwide trucking stoppage grocery shelves would be bare in three days. Only when one stops to consider how much food comes out the front door on a daily basis does one realize how much food needs to be going in the back door.

ctf_error_coins

@derryb said:

@cohodk said:

@Higashiyama said:

The residents of Long Beach would certainly agree that appearances are everything.

and a consumer could argue that the appearance of empty shelves
is not a sign of a "remarkably strong" supply chain.

The photos of all the cargo ships show massive deflation waiting to come ashore.

The photo of the empty shelves is very funny. Take one photo and show that photo to the world. LMAO. That is not reality.

derryb

It's reality if you're the guy in the red shirt. Don't leave home in a red shirt. LOL

The photo of all the cargo ships demonstrate just how fragile the supply system is.

blitzdude

@derryb said:
It's reality if you're the guy in the red shirt. Don't leave home in a red shirt. LOL

The photo of all the cargo ships demonstrate just how fragile the supply system is.

Dude probably works there and got bored one night so he staged the photo. No shelves looking anywhere remotely close to that here in The Commonwealth. Only thing I can't seem to find at the moment is a fresh off the assembly line mule/gator, a deal on a gently driven used car, and low premium pre 33 gold.

meluaufeet

Certain premium cat food brands are difficult to find lately. Had to change brands because of it. Prices up about 30% or so.

streeter

@blitzdude said:

@derryb said:
It's reality if you're the guy in the red shirt. Don't leave home in a red shirt. LOL

The photo of all the cargo ships demonstrate just how fragile the supply system is.

Dude probably works there and got bored one night so he staged the photo. No shelves looking anywhere remotely close to that here in The Commonwealth. Only thing I can't seem to find at the moment is a fresh off the assembly line mule/gator, a deal on a gently driven used car, and low premium pre 33 gold.

Show em your oats!!!