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2021 inflation report thread

derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭
edited June 30, 2021 7:11AM in Precious Metals

Lumber's Deflation Could Be a Sign of What's Coming.

"Prices in the economy are acting a bit like a boxer would do after taking a right hand from Mike Tyson. Staggering from one side of the ring to the other before finally recovering and standing upright again. Or, do they simply go to the mat? After the supply-side and demand-side shock that World War C created, prices will find their natural equilibrium as they always do."

And food prices? I believe they will not only stick, but continue to rise.

Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

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  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Lumber's Deflation Could Be a Sign of What's Coming.

    "Prices in the economy are acting a bit like a boxer would do after taking a right hand from Mike Tyson. Staggering from one side of the ring to the other before finally recovering and standing upright again. Or, do they simply go to the mat? After the supply-side and demand-side shock that World War C created, prices will find their natural equilibrium as they always do."

    And food prices? I believe they will not only stick, but continue to rise.

    Prices of all goods and services will overshoot then drop but create a higher floor. Just as silver went from 4 to 50 then crashed and established a floor in the teens.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Lumber's Deflation Could Be a Sign of What's Coming.

    "Prices in the economy are acting a bit like a boxer would do after taking a right hand from Mike Tyson. Staggering from one side of the ring to the other before finally recovering and standing upright again. Or, do they simply go to the mat? After the supply-side and demand-side shock that World War C created, prices will find their natural equilibrium as they always do."

    And food prices? I believe they will not only stick, but continue to rise.

    Prices of all goods and services will overshoot then drop but create a higher floor. Just as silver went from 4 to 50 then crashed and established a floor in the teens.

    I have never witnessed an overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:
    Lumber's Deflation Could Be a Sign of What's Coming.

    "Prices in the economy are acting a bit like a boxer would do after taking a right hand from Mike Tyson. Staggering from one side of the ring to the other before finally recovering and standing upright again. Or, do they simply go to the mat? After the supply-side and demand-side shock that World War C created, prices will find their natural equilibrium as they always do."

    And food prices? I believe they will not only stick, but continue to rise.

    Prices of all goods and services will overshoot then drop but create a higher floor. Just as silver went from 4 to 50 then crashed and established a floor in the teens.

    I have never witnessed an overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Some weeks ribeyes are 15.99 and other times 9.99. Sometimes i can get 2 bags of veggies for the same price as 1 bag the week before. Relative to many other goods food prices have declined over the last 40 years. During holidays many supermarkets give away turkeys for free. American farmers are the most efficient in the world. However, eventually an ear of corn can only grow so long.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    it's been building time in the NE for a while now. plenty of fair weather to go around for the rest.

    I'm now wondering just how much of that lumber rise was due to free money.

    we'll see.

    as for food, weekly deals can't be used to indicate a trend.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Yup I remember swine flu pork $7.99lb now back to $2.99, Eggs $3.50+/doz now back to .99 cents (slag city). City chicken garbage I wouldn't eat but good enough for the majority. Prices dropping even faster than the gutter metal after a massive manipulation to the upside. Rgds!

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    I have never witnessed an overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Some weeks ribeyes are 15.99 and other times 9.99. Sometimes i can get 2 bags of veggies for the same price as 1 bag the week before.

    Relative to many other goods food prices have declined over the last 40 years.

    What planet have you been living on?

    During holidays many supermarkets give away turkeys for free. American farmers are the most efficient in the world. However, eventually an ear of corn can only grow so long.

    And Publix has different BOGO specials every week. does not change the fact that I have never witnessed and overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    I have never witnessed an overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Some weeks ribeyes are 15.99 and other times 9.99. Sometimes i can get 2 bags of veggies for the same price as 1 bag the week before.

    Relative to many other goods food prices have declined over the last 40 years.

    What planet have you been living on?

    During holidays many supermarkets give away turkeys for free. American farmers are the most efficient in the world. However, eventually an ear of corn can only grow so long.

    And Publix has different BOGO specials every week. does not change the fact that I have never witnessed and overall drop in food prices and likely will not.

    Of course. Just like you have never witnessed an overall drop in equities, gold, real estate, wages, new cars, etc.

    But...beef prices are lower than 6-7 years ago.

    https://beefmarketcentral.com/story-retail-ground-beef-prices-month-0-114059

    I warned you last summer that food prices, especially grain related, would be going higher.

    And Publix is a terribly expensive grocer.


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    And when this takes hold meat prices will drop to near zero. Fire up the grill. Haha

    https://culturedbeef.org/what-cultured-meat


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • rte592rte592 Posts: 727 ✭✭✭✭

    3M scotch blue painters tape...
    The 1.5" wide roll is now 1.44"
    The 2" wide roll is now 1.88" and $6.
    I'm still looking for those measurements on my ruler :s

  • ShadyDaveShadyDave Posts: 2,091 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:
    And when this takes hold meat prices will drop to near zero. Fire up the grill. Haha

    https://culturedbeef.org/what-cultured-meat

    LOL, I don't consider lab grown "meat", meat. If poor people want to eat that manufactured "cultured meat", power to them. I'll never put that garbage in my body. Same goes for the fake, processed soy based "burgers". The companies making these disgusting products did a wonderful job marketing it as "healthy and fresh" but it is still processed mystery food that comes out of a manufacturing plant.

    MMMMM Soy and pink paste, my favorite! I'm feeling healthier already!!!

    I'm financially conscious, so I definitely save money where I can, however, food is not one of those places. If you put garbage into your body, it will turn your body into garbage. Eating unprocessed food (stay away from high fructose corn syrup, which is in pretty much all processed foods these days due to being addictive) is one of the best investments people can make. Prices at my butcher shop are insane, but I'd rather support local business putting out fresh and healthy (low or no antibiotic and//or free range meat) than the saline and hormone/antibiotic filled chicken and beef at the grocery store chains that still cost $4-$6/lb for chicken or ground beef.

  • rickoricko Posts: 85,394 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I believe these increased prices on meat and most vegetables will be with us for quite a while, if not the new normal. People are paying...and the markets are busy. Recouping losses to begin with, but if it works, it will stay. Cheers, RickO

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Grow/raise your own. Easy solution, just takes a little bit of WORK.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    It takes land
    It takes favorable zoning
    It takes pesticides
    It takes a miracle to grow chemicals to overcome lack of light and warmth for that winter corn crop

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • metalmeistermetalmeister Posts: 4,453 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Lumber is still sky high at Home Depot. Over $1 per pound. Plywood still climbing. $80 for a sheet of 5/8"

    email: [email protected]

    100% Positive BST transactions
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 4,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Got a neighbor that runs shift at the lumbar yard here. We asked him yesterday if prices were coming down like we heard somewhere...he said nope not yet.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Roundup is about to get expensive as it will soon be moving to the black underground market.

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    lumber futures are way down

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 4,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Couple of our morning birds dropped massive duece on my truck this week. Went to the local DIY car wash joint. $1.75 for a decade to get the water pumping...$2 today.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,621 ✭✭✭✭✭

    LoL omg, the end of life as we know it! 😂

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Baley said:
    LoL omg, the end of life as we know it! 😂

    life of the dollar maybe?

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited June 27, 2021 6:24AM

    "Inflation is dead in the water."

    "Money printing is practically irrelevant because the velocity (or turnover) of money is still declining. What good is new money if the banks just give it back to the Fed as excess reserves, so the money is never spent or lent?"

    Why gold?

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    lumber futures are way down

    Or are they mostly double where they've been over most of the last 5 years?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @MsMorrisine said:
    lumber futures are way down

    Or are they mostly double where they've been over most of the last 5 years?

    Wake me when the declining price quits declining.

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    yes, the trend for lumber is up over 5 years.

    I did not make it clear that my post was in response to the "lumber yard prices haven't come down" post.

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    find lumber
    note top 3

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    this one is from May 10th

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • YorkshiremanYorkshireman Posts: 3,923 ✭✭✭✭✭

    The Chairman of the Federal Reserve board and most financial firms have said that this inflation is short term .

    Yorkshireman,
    Obsessed collector of pieces of history.
    Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits & cool US gold
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    find lumber
    note top 3

    Nice to see Nat gas finally spiking up. I'm sitting on a massive pool with mineral rights. Hopefully another lease is right around the corner.

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,621 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Let's hear it for Ethanol!

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Yorkshireman said:
    The Chairman of the Federal Reserve board and most financial firms have said that this inflation is short term .

    were their lips moving?

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • willywilly Posts: 95 ✭✭✭

    The inflation in Bourbon is through the roof. Debating whether to drink or sell my bottles.

  • YorkshiremanYorkshireman Posts: 3,923 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @Yorkshireman said:
    The Chairman of the Federal Reserve board and most financial firms have said that this inflation is short term .

    were their lips moving?

    Powells we’re, yes.
    Strategists with the major Wall Street firms, including mine, wrote their comments on that, so their lips weren’t moving.

    Feel free to PM me for more details.

    Yorkshireman,
    Obsessed collector of pieces of history.
    Hunting for Latin American colonial portraits & cool US gold
  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Inflation report from one of the crypto exchanges.

    Inflation: The Insidious Thief

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Sir Isaac Newton: "What goes up must come down."

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • BaleyBaley Posts: 22,621 ✭✭✭✭✭

    In other words, "ok, stop making so much extra toilet paper, and start making the normal amount of boards again!"

    Liberty: Parent of Science & Industry

  • jmski52jmski52 Posts: 21,024 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I note the rising regression trendline on that chart.

    Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally

    I knew it would happen.
  • tincuptincup Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭✭

    Anyone been shopping for a new car or truck lately? I've noticed my area dealers have a lot of empty spaces in their lots that in previous years would have many to choose from. I suppose the chip shortage... as well as labor shortages... are the cause of the lack of merchandise. Have not checked prices but assume they are climbing. Perhaps buyers will start offering more than list price... just like what is happening in the real estate business?

    ----- kj
  • tincuptincup Posts: 4,037 ✭✭✭✭

    Regarding real estate... I've been hearing big institutions/commercial property owners are aggressively buying up real estate at every opportunity. Been seeing a lot of commercials advertising of individuals/outfits desiring to purchase your property... no matter what condition it is in. Received a 'cold call' in the last couple of days wanting to buy real estate in my area (I am in a pretty rural area and that is not the norm that I've seen since I've been here).

    All in all, makes me think something is in the works but I have no idea what it would be. Just an uneasiness, regarding how rapidly prices are exploding, and what is taking place. Perhaps just many buyers snapping things up prior to expected large inflation profits later?

    ----- kj
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @tincup said:
    Perhaps buyers will start offering more than list price... just like what is happening in the real estate business?

    I have heard reports of offers over MSRP


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I just paid $18 for 4 - 1/4lb prime rib burgers, $5.49 for a lb of baked beans and most shockingly $6 for a dozen ears of fresh sweet corn. The ole hag didn't even make it a bakers dozen. Those 3 items would of cost me about $17 last year, almost $30 today and I was suckered out of an ear of corn. The dogs, buns, mac and potato salad seemed about the same as years past.

  • derrybderryb Posts: 32,679 ✭✭✭✭✭

    gutter corn?

    Transitory Shortages & Inflation Are Actually Your Quality Of Life Being Stolen Right Before Your Eyes

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited July 4, 2021 2:37PM

    corn's on special here for 40cents per ear

    can't speak to its inflation

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • HigashiyamaHigashiyama Posts: 1,723 ✭✭✭✭

    In many places corn prices drop as the season goes on. For a while, quality increases-mid season corn is usually better than early season.

    Higashiyama
  • blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 3,850 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Higashiyama said:
    In many places corn prices drop as the season goes on. For a while, quality increases-mid season corn is usually better than early season.

    No doubt it will get much better as the season goes on. First purchase of the year and it was certainly better than the run of the mill store bought. I wouldn't call it gutter corn but was definitely slag city. Should be absolutely crackin in another 3-4 weeks. If prices stay this high I may have to revisit growing my own. Looks like at present a acre of crop would yield a monster box of gutter ASE's.

  • JimTylerJimTyler Posts: 1,822 ✭✭✭✭✭

    When I bought my house in 2009 my homeowners insurance was $450 a year. Last year it $1370 this year $1550. No claims ever same coverage.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 28,900 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Same coverage as in they did up the insured value?

    Usually they do that

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • cohodkcohodk Posts: 16,980 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @JimTyler said:
    When I bought my house in 2009 my homeowners insurance was $450 a year. Last year it $1370 this year $1550. No claims ever same coverage.

    How does this compare to the value of your house? For example, suppose in 2009 the $450 premium was equal to 1% of the homes's value. Is the $1550 premium today still equal to about 1% of the homes value?


    Excuses are tools of the ignorant
    Knowledge is the enemy of fear
  • JimTylerJimTyler Posts: 1,822 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:
    Same coverage as in they did up the insured value?

    Usually they do that

    @cohodk said:

    @JimTyler said:
    When I bought my house in 2009 my homeowners insurance was $450 a year. Last year it $1370 this year $1550. No claims ever same coverage.

    How does this compare to the value of your house? For example, suppose in 2009 the $450 premium was equal to 1% of the homes's value. Is the $1550 premium today still equal to about 1% of the homes value?

    My house is not 3 times more valuable than it was in 2009. Nice if it did but of little concern because I’m going nowhere until they haul my carcass away.

  • DrBusterDrBuster Posts: 4,894 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Time to shop around for new homeowners insurance. Had to do that for our home/auto a couple years ago for same - raised it up a little every year...loyalty program perks, pfft.

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