Real interest rates equal the nominal rate (the numbers quoted on the news) minus inflation. Today, the nominal rate is 0%. Inflation is running at around 7.3% (using the cooked government numbers).
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
@derryb said:
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
@derryb said:
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
Duh, your finally listening to me
does not change the fact that there are currently supply shortages causing disruptions.
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
the PPI is running about 15% now and wage inflation is already baked into the cake, even while job openings go unfilled. That story is far from over.
If supply chain disruptions lead to an inventory glut, what does that do to steady employment all along the supply chain? In this situation, kanban isn't all it's cracked up to be because production will be running in fits & starts in a response to big swings in demand - not very efficient at all in terms of systems and training.
Last month is was (fake) inflation that was being propaganded.
This month it is the supply chain (fake) dysfunction that is being propaganded.
Yes, it's all propaganda until it affects you personally. I guess we shall see how these fake things all come down. I don't think we'll have to wait much longer to see what happens with deflation/inflation and shortages.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I always like the arguement that people just left the workforce. Where did they go? Are they camped out in some Ca. homeless community? Or are these just independently wealthy people that just decided they aren't going to work anymore.
Most likely, if they "left the workforce" they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.
@bigjpst said “ Most likely, if they ‘left the workforce’ they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.”
I think there’s a lot of truth to this if you adjust it to say “are now or will be…”
I suspect that many people left without a lot of thought to their long term means. Some of these will undoubtedly look for work in the future.
But, a somewhat scary thing we may have learned as a result of COVID is that the economy works pretty well with half the workforce.
@derryb said:
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
Never thought I'd find myself agreeing with you on anything but as they say "even a broken clock is right twice a day". HAPPY HLDYS!!!
@Higashiyama said: @bigjpst said “ Most likely, if they ‘left the workforce’ they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.”
I think there’s a lot of truth to this if you adjust it to say “are now or will be…”
I suspect that many people left without a lot of thought to their long term means. Some of these will undoubtedly look for work in the future.
But, a somewhat scary thing we may have learned as a result of COVID is that the economy works pretty well with half the workforce.
LOL no it doesn't. The government had to step in to the tune of trillion$ before AND during.
Regarding socialism - it’s a matter of “social democracy” vs socialism. You might not like either, but they are different animals. We are arguably moving towards social democracy more than socialism. Hayek and others would say it will ultimately break down.
@Higashiyama said:
But, a somewhat scary thing we may have learned as a result of COVID is that the economy works pretty well with half the workforce.
Yup. First we created disposable goods and now disposable workers. Truth is that many who are employed are in jobs beyond their skill set. Theyve been promoted and promoted again over the years to be in positions for which they are inefficient. Corporations are now "woke" and realizing the dead weight on their payrolls.
Then what do to will millions of folk that we dont need? Better keep them placated.
@Higashiyama said: @bigjpst said “ Most likely, if they ‘left the workforce’ they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.”
I think there’s a lot of truth to this if you adjust it to say “are now or will be…”
I suspect that many people left without a lot of thought to their long term means. Some of these will undoubtedly look for work in the future.
But, a somewhat scary thing we may have learned as a result of COVID is that the economy works pretty well with half the workforce.
I'm not sure I would say it works pretty well. Lots of people have suffered and gone without. Lots of small businesses closed forever. But you may be right, the government infusion of cash has made a lot of people question whether or not they need to work anymore. Why bust your butt every day when you can make almost as much sitting on your couch.
Yup. First we created disposable goods and now disposable workers. Truth is that many who are employed are in jobs beyond their skill set. Theyve been promoted and promoted again over the years to be in positions for which they are inefficient. Corporations are now "woke" and realizing the dead weight on their payrolls.
Then what do to will millions of folk that we dont need? Better keep them placated.
The above is scary but true. During Covid we had a real hard time finding people with skills to come work. We lost several employees to other shops who were offering ridiculous amount of money. My boss was forced to increase pay across the board and include a bonus structure just to maintain a staff. Now that the extended benefits have run out, more and more people are looking for work and they are willing to work for less than our current employees. A couple of the ones who left are now making less than we offered them to stay because the other companies used them for the busy summer season then either cut pay or cut them loose. One came back (but we are paying him more than when he left). One just lost his job with us last week because he asked for more money(when we already currently pay him about $5 per hour more than any other shop for his position plus the bonus. When he didn't get the raise he started looking elsewhere and trying to get the other employees to quit with him. Talking down about the company and basically slowed down his production. Other employees (several) who actually like their jobs with us and beleive they are paid well told management.
From what I heard, he will start working at another shop after the first of the year for less pay.
Interesting times.
I believe that I am paid well for what I do. When my boss gave me another raise, I commented to him that I didn't want these other people strong arming him to price me out of a job. Hopefully that won't be the case but you never know.
"The above is scary but true. During Covid we had a real hard time finding people with skills to come work. We lost several employees to other shops who were offering ridiculous amount of money. My boss was forced to increase pay across the board and include a bonus structure just to maintain a staff. Now that the extended benefits have run out, more and more people are looking for work and they are willing to work for less than our current employees. A couple of the ones who left are now making less than we offered them to stay because the other companies used them for the busy summer season then either cut pay or cut them loose. One came back (but we are paying him more than when he left). One just lost his job with us last week because he asked for more money(when we already currently pay him about $5 per hour more than any other shop for his position plus the bonus. When he didn't get the raise he started looking elsewhere and trying to get the other employees to quit with him. Talking down about the company and basically slowed down his production. Other employees (several) who actually like their jobs with us and beleive they are paid well told management.
From what I heard, he will start working at another shop after the first of the year for less pay.
Interesting times."
You have related a good example of the types of games that have been played regarding employment in these times. The employers probably will remember who the loyal and dependable workers have been.
I believe the time will again come (perhaps we are starting to turn that direction) when jobs will again become scarce and much more desirable. What goes around... comes around. Those who gamed the system may find themselves in less fortunate circumstances. But will probably be awhile yet, as there is a pretty good backlog of jobs available. Certainly interesting times.
@derryb said:
everything economic see-saws back and forth from extremes seeking equilibrium.
Agreed. And no matter how hard we try to destroy it, it keeps bouncing back. Because in the end, the economy is you and me and everyone in between with our own set of wants and needs and desires.
@derryb said:
everything economic see-saws back and forth from extremes seeking equilibrium.
Agreed. And no matter how hard we try to destroy it, it keeps bouncing back. Because in the end, the economy is you and me and everyone in between with our own set of wants and needs and desires.
unfortunately not all equilibriums are equal. This is where "trend" takes over. There is no guarantee of improvement over time.
@derryb said:
everything economic see-saws back and forth from extremes seeking equilibrium.
Agreed. And no matter how hard we try to destroy it, it keeps bouncing back. Because in the end, the economy is you and me and everyone in between with our own set of wants and needs and desires.
unfortunately not all equilibriums are equal. This is were "trend" takes over. There is no guarantee of improvement over time.
Ambros is calling for $1K gold in another thread. I'm a buyer here and certainly tripling down at $1K. LOL I suspect I will continue to buy at some "inflated" price north of $2K in the not too distant future.
@derryb said:
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
Duh, your finally listening to me
does not change the fact that there are currently supply shortages causing disruptions.
Hmm, News Flash: Holiday Sales, strongest growth in 17 years ....
Holiday sales up 8.5%. Wait a second.... You mean that the number is not adjusted for inflation? But official CPI is currently 6.8. And, annualizing CPI for Jan through Nov 21, you get 7.3 %. So even with most of the 2nd and 3rd stimulus checks coming in 2021, some of which was deployed for holiday shopping, "real" holiday sales are up just over 1%. Roughly the same quantity of stuff is being bought this year as last.
That debt clock certainly continues to inflate. It jumped over $29T sometime in December and nobody even seemed to notice. We'll be at $30T in no time. lol
@tincup said:
Another inflation/covid hit... daycare / child care expenses. This is one that I am not seeing the effects of, since I have no young children. But some of you out there might...
One article says " child care costs have increased by 41%, or $14,117, up from $9,977 pre-pandemic."
My local daycare (four locations in Connecticut) has gone from $300/week to $350/week and it's a "middle of the road daycare". Luckily it has a relatively stable and static workforce, owned by our local state representative. If I wanted to send my one child (our second pandemic baby is coming in June 2022) to a higher end national daycare chain like Educational Playcare, I'd be spending around $450-$500/week.
At this point, the price is a less of an issue to me compared to COVID exposures and mandatory shutdowns, but I'm sure other families are feeling the extra $2,600/year. My wife and I both work from home (luckily) due to COVID and have well-paying corporate jobs which allows this flexibility. We have had our 16 month old home with us since 12/15 due to a teacher having COVID and exposing all four daycare rooms. He is finally going back to daycare tomorrow....who knows for how long. All the while were paying $350/week for daycare that's not even open. Its nearly impossible to work full-time with having a kid home AND paying these prices.
Once we have two kids in daycare around September 2022, its going to be $700/week or $36,400/year, LOL. And people wonder why millennials aren't having as many kids these days. Don't get me started on diaper prices or kids clothing prices....they're even worse these days.
ShadyDave, I don't know how one can afford the daycare... but guess there is not much choice. One has to work too. Fortunately for me, when my kids were that age, my wife at that time opted for the stay at home route... tough to get by on one income then, but not sure it would have been much better having the daycare expenses.
@bigjpst said:
Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake
my car runs on OJ as well.
Gas prices are clearly higher but I feel that is by design. The (current)policy makers prefer high price gas to push people and industry into alternatives. IMO
I only posted about the OJ because the shrinking of packages so that they can hide the price increase pisses me off more than if I have to pay more for old size. Then people post there is no inflation. Ridiculous.
While I don't disagree that gas prices are higher by design, what do you think power plants are run by? Natural gas alone is the source of 40% of America's electricity and natural gas prices are up 51% YOY...Living in Connecticut my electricity prices (highest prices in the lower 48 states) are up 64% as of 1/1/22 from 7/1/21, LOL. And here we have certain users saying inflation is non-existent.
@bigjpst said:
Fake inflation
Pre pandemic OJ brand I buy 64oz $3.99
12 mo ago 59oz $3.99
Last week 52 oz $3.99
Yup prices are the same. Inflation is fake
my car runs on OJ as well.
Gas prices are clearly higher but I feel that is by design. The (current)policy makers prefer high price gas to push people and industry into alternatives. IMO
I only posted about the OJ because the shrinking of packages so that they can hide the price increase pisses me off more than if I have to pay more for old size. Then people post there is no inflation. Ridiculous.
While I don't disagree that gas prices are higher by design, what do you think power plants are run by? Natural gas alone is the source of 40% of America's electricity and natural gas prices are up 51% YOY...Living in Connecticut my electricity prices (highest prices in the lower 48 states) are up 64% as of 1/1/22 from 7/1/21, LOL. And here we have certain users saying inflation is non-existent.
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Are you suggesting that the environmental lobby is full of hypocrites? Lol.
Lets fly all over the world in our private jets and tell everyone how evil those petrol cars are.
"While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system."
Comments
The department (and hospital) has been operating at half capacity because of all the staff that have bailed.
Ah yes, a worker shortage. Did anyone in Administration bother to ask them why they bailed?
I knew it would happen.
Absolutely, mostly burnout/fatigue from dealing with the pandemic.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
We built a wall to keep the workers out. Haha
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Lets assume i agree with you on what you think is coming, then i would suggest you pay attention.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
Up until now supply chain induced shortages have driven inflation;
Looks like high prices are about do create production shortages.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Real interest rates equal the nominal rate (the numbers quoted on the news) minus inflation. Today, the nominal rate is 0%. Inflation is running at around 7.3% (using the cooked government numbers).
So, the real interest rate is currently -7.3%.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Duh, your finally listening to me
does not change the fact that there are currently supply shortages causing disruptions.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Ah yes, a worker shortage. Did anyone in Administration bother to ask them why they bailed?
Absolutely, mostly burnout/fatigue from dealing with the pandemic.
For clarification, do vaccine mandates have anything to do with it?
I knew it would happen.
supply chain disruptions will lead to an inventory glut in 2022. This will cool inflation faster than interest rate increases. Both will lead to a return price deflation.
the PPI is running about 15% now and wage inflation is already baked into the cake, even while job openings go unfilled. That story is far from over.
If supply chain disruptions lead to an inventory glut, what does that do to steady employment all along the supply chain? In this situation, kanban isn't all it's cracked up to be because production will be running in fits & starts in a response to big swings in demand - not very efficient at all in terms of systems and training.
Last month is was (fake) inflation that was being propaganded.
This month it is the supply chain (fake) dysfunction that is being propaganded.
Yes, it's all propaganda until it affects you personally. I guess we shall see how these fake things all come down. I don't think we'll have to wait much longer to see what happens with deflation/inflation and shortages.
I knew it would happen.
I always like the arguement that people just left the workforce. Where did they go? Are they camped out in some Ca. homeless community? Or are these just independently wealthy people that just decided they aren't going to work anymore.
Most likely, if they "left the workforce" they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.
My Ebay Store
@bigjpst said “ Most likely, if they ‘left the workforce’ they are now a burden on someone else. Either thier parents, family/spouse, or the taxpayer.”
I think there’s a lot of truth to this if you adjust it to say “are now or will be…”
I suspect that many people left without a lot of thought to their long term means. Some of these will undoubtedly look for work in the future.
But, a somewhat scary thing we may have learned as a result of COVID is that the economy works pretty well with half the workforce.
Never thought I'd find myself agreeing with you on anything but as they say "even a broken clock is right twice a day". HAPPY HLDYS!!!
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
LOL no it doesn't. The government had to step in to the tune of trillion$ before AND during.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
@derryb said: “ The government had to step in to the tune of trillion$ before AND during.”
Yes, that’s part of the point. Almost no one went without - hence, the “real” economy kept on going.
So I guess to some the government is the economy. Isn't that the definition of socialism?
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Global Tightening in Full Swing, While the Fed Promises to Wake Up in Time Next Year
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Regarding socialism - it’s a matter of “social democracy” vs socialism. You might not like either, but they are different animals. We are arguably moving towards social democracy more than socialism. Hayek and others would say it will ultimately break down.
and what comes after social democracy?
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
'Merica moving forward and you continuing to root for her demise?
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Yup. First we created disposable goods and now disposable workers. Truth is that many who are employed are in jobs beyond their skill set. Theyve been promoted and promoted again over the years to be in positions for which they are inefficient. Corporations are now "woke" and realizing the dead weight on their payrolls.
Then what do to will millions of folk that we dont need? Better keep them placated.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
I'm not sure I would say it works pretty well. Lots of people have suffered and gone without. Lots of small businesses closed forever. But you may be right, the government infusion of cash has made a lot of people question whether or not they need to work anymore. Why bust your butt every day when you can make almost as much sitting on your couch.
The above is scary but true. During Covid we had a real hard time finding people with skills to come work. We lost several employees to other shops who were offering ridiculous amount of money. My boss was forced to increase pay across the board and include a bonus structure just to maintain a staff. Now that the extended benefits have run out, more and more people are looking for work and they are willing to work for less than our current employees. A couple of the ones who left are now making less than we offered them to stay because the other companies used them for the busy summer season then either cut pay or cut them loose. One came back (but we are paying him more than when he left). One just lost his job with us last week because he asked for more money(when we already currently pay him about $5 per hour more than any other shop for his position plus the bonus. When he didn't get the raise he started looking elsewhere and trying to get the other employees to quit with him. Talking down about the company and basically slowed down his production. Other employees (several) who actually like their jobs with us and beleive they are paid well told management.
From what I heard, he will start working at another shop after the first of the year for less pay.
Interesting times.
I believe that I am paid well for what I do. When my boss gave me another raise, I commented to him that I didn't want these other people strong arming him to price me out of a job. Hopefully that won't be the case but you never know.
My Ebay Store
and the millions more we continue to allow to illegally flood over our borders. Eventually those paying to placate will tire of placating...
Then the fun starts, eh?
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
How Much Control Does the Central Bank Have over Interest Rates?
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
"The above is scary but true. During Covid we had a real hard time finding people with skills to come work. We lost several employees to other shops who were offering ridiculous amount of money. My boss was forced to increase pay across the board and include a bonus structure just to maintain a staff. Now that the extended benefits have run out, more and more people are looking for work and they are willing to work for less than our current employees. A couple of the ones who left are now making less than we offered them to stay because the other companies used them for the busy summer season then either cut pay or cut them loose. One came back (but we are paying him more than when he left). One just lost his job with us last week because he asked for more money(when we already currently pay him about $5 per hour more than any other shop for his position plus the bonus. When he didn't get the raise he started looking elsewhere and trying to get the other employees to quit with him. Talking down about the company and basically slowed down his production. Other employees (several) who actually like their jobs with us and beleive they are paid well told management.
From what I heard, he will start working at another shop after the first of the year for less pay.
Interesting times."
You have related a good example of the types of games that have been played regarding employment in these times. The employers probably will remember who the loyal and dependable workers have been.
I believe the time will again come (perhaps we are starting to turn that direction) when jobs will again become scarce and much more desirable. What goes around... comes around. Those who gamed the system may find themselves in less fortunate circumstances. But will probably be awhile yet, as there is a pretty good backlog of jobs available. Certainly interesting times.
everything economic see-saws back and forth from extremes seeking equilibrium.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Agreed. And no matter how hard we try to destroy it, it keeps bouncing back. Because in the end, the economy is you and me and everyone in between with our own set of wants and needs and desires.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
unfortunately not all equilibriums are equal. This is where "trend" takes over. There is no guarantee of improvement over time.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Ambros is calling for $1K gold in another thread. I'm a buyer here and certainly tripling down at $1K. LOL I suspect I will continue to buy at some "inflated" price north of $2K in the not too distant future.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Hmm, News Flash: Holiday Sales, strongest growth in 17 years ....
Love your erroneous predictions
Holiday sales up 8.5%. Wait a second.... You mean that the number is not adjusted for inflation? But official CPI is currently 6.8. And, annualizing CPI for Jan through Nov 21, you get 7.3 %. So even with most of the 2nd and 3rd stimulus checks coming in 2021, some of which was deployed for holiday shopping, "real" holiday sales are up just over 1%. Roughly the same quantity of stuff is being bought this year as last.
Are the retail sales numbers inflation adjusted?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-november-2021-retail-sales-11639498894
That debt clock certainly continues to inflate. It jumped over $29T sometime in December and nobody even seemed to notice. We'll be at $30T in no time. lol
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
I noticed but forgot to post
that's because prices are strongest since . . . can't remember that far back.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
My local daycare (four locations in Connecticut) has gone from $300/week to $350/week and it's a "middle of the road daycare". Luckily it has a relatively stable and static workforce, owned by our local state representative. If I wanted to send my one child (our second pandemic baby is coming in June 2022) to a higher end national daycare chain like Educational Playcare, I'd be spending around $450-$500/week.
At this point, the price is a less of an issue to me compared to COVID exposures and mandatory shutdowns, but I'm sure other families are feeling the extra $2,600/year. My wife and I both work from home (luckily) due to COVID and have well-paying corporate jobs which allows this flexibility. We have had our 16 month old home with us since 12/15 due to a teacher having COVID and exposing all four daycare rooms. He is finally going back to daycare tomorrow....who knows for how long. All the while were paying $350/week for daycare that's not even open. Its nearly impossible to work full-time with having a kid home AND paying these prices.
Once we have two kids in daycare around September 2022, its going to be $700/week or $36,400/year, LOL. And people wonder why millennials aren't having as many kids these days. Don't get me started on diaper prices or kids clothing prices....they're even worse these days.
prices are strongest since . . .
I don't ever remember paying $4.00/gallon for 89 octane.
I knew it would happen.
ShadyDave, I don't know how one can afford the daycare... but guess there is not much choice. One has to work too. Fortunately for me, when my kids were that age, my wife at that time opted for the stay at home route... tough to get by on one income then, but not sure it would have been much better having the daycare expenses.
While I don't disagree that gas prices are higher by design, what do you think power plants are run by? Natural gas alone is the source of 40% of America's electricity and natural gas prices are up 51% YOY...Living in Connecticut my electricity prices (highest prices in the lower 48 states) are up 64% as of 1/1/22 from 7/1/21, LOL. And here we have certain users saying inflation is non-existent.
(the link is a CT.GOV link to a PDF)
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwib0KLvuYX1AhXNjokEHfLNAnYQFnoECAcQAw&url=https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/OCC/Standard-Service-increase-blurb-2022.pdf&usg=AOvVaw1qeifa_q7Y-_-JYxKAZC29
And it’s not like we have a nat gas shortage
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
Are you suggesting that the environmental lobby is full of hypocrites? Lol.
Lets fly all over the world in our private jets and tell everyone how evil those petrol cars are.
My Ebay Store
Maybe because you arent and didnt.
Knowledge is the enemy of fear
FED FOMC's only "gloom and doomer" voter is the only one who got it right!
"While Hoenig was concerned about inflation, that isn’t what solely what drove him to lodge his string of dissents. The historical record shows that Hoenig was worried primarily that the Fed was taking a risky path that would deepen income inequality, stoke dangerous asset bubbles and enrich the biggest banks over everyone else. He also warned that it would suck the Fed into a money-printing quagmire that the central bank would not be able to escape without destabilizing the entire financial system."
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.
Maybe because you arent and didnt.
But I did, in Fresno - yesterday at Costco.
I knew it would happen.
Guess you weren't driving back in 08? End of the oil regime brought the highest gas prices in history.
The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.
Pineapple at the store today, $1 more than summer per.
Price of dollars is down. Bought some today with a gold eagle.
Economic headlines the mainstream media are hiding from you.