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2021 inflation report thread

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    FED's most recent big lie.

    "The U.S. Federal Reserve would have you believe that unwinding quantitative easing and normalizing interest rates are possible, but there is too much debt in the global system for that to work"

    Once again all problems economic revolve around runaway debt.

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    cagcrispcagcrisp Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2021 9:42AM

    I wish I had a Dollar for every time I've heard that Federal debt is a problem for the United States.

    At Some Point, Federal debt in the United States will be a problem.

    Not now.

    Currently (according to WSJ) the 10 year is @ 1.547% and the 30 year is @ 1.965%...

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    ctf_error_coinsctf_error_coins Posts: 15,433 ✭✭✭✭✭

    apparently the world is ending

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    RobMRobM Posts: 544 ✭✭✭

    Official reported debt was stuck at ceiling of $28.908T from 10/22/21 to 12/15/21 while "extraordinary measures" took place. Official debt on 12/24 was $29.366T> @cagcrisp said:

    I wish I had a Dollar for every time I've heard that Federal debt is a problem for the United States.

    At Some Point, Federal debt in the United States will be a problem.

    Not now.

    Currently (according to WSJ) the 10 year is @ 1.547% and the 30 year is @ 1.965%...

    That is the equivalent of saying that the heroin addict who has yet to overdose does not have a problem.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2021 10:47AM

    @ErrorsOnCoins said:
    apparently the world is ending

    actually, your imaginary "printing does not create inflation" unicorn world is ending, as predicted by those paying attention.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2021 10:23AM

    @cagcrisp said:
    I wish I had a Dollar for every time I've heard that Federal debt is a problem for the United States.

    At Some Point, Federal debt in the United States will be a problem.

    Not now.

    Currently (according to WSJ) the 10 year is @ 1.547% and the 30 year is @ 1.965%...

    It's the private debt that poses the problem. Educate yourself.

    Government debt is no longer a short-near term economic problem now that we have the endless money printing of MMT (magic money tree). But, even those inflationary chickens will eventually come home to roost. And the bad news - their inflationary results are yet to be baked into current inflation reality.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 29, 2021 5:07PM

    Note that the REAL federal funds interest rate is based on the modified way of calculating "core PCE" price inflation. In reality this real interest rate is much lower than the NEGATIVE 4.1% recently charted by the Richmond FED reserve bank.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @jmski52 said:
    Maybe because you arent and didnt.

    But I did, in Fresno - yesterday at Costco.

    Heck, ive paid $6 for fuel in CA. But thats not what everyone else pays. Just dummies who are on the wrong side of the mountain and forgot to check their fuel gauge. ;)

    Sorry you were in Fresno. You have my condolences.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2021 5:12AM

    @derryb said:

    @cagcrisp said:
    I wish I had a Dollar for every time I've heard that Federal debt is a problem for the United States.

    At Some Point, Federal debt in the United States will be a problem.

    Not now.

    Currently (according to WSJ) the 10 year is @ 1.547% and the 30 year is @ 1.965%...

    It's the private debt that poses the problem. Educate yourself.

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2021 7:56AM

    @cohodk said:

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

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    rte592rte592 Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    I like it but change the smaller question marks to 3 2 1

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2021 10:52AM

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

    Too many questions? Too hard? Dont care? Dont know? Doesnt fit narrative? Dont like being called out?

    Haha

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2021 12:43PM

    Fret not, central banks are experts on inflation.

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Talk about inflation.... hope one of you financial savvy folks can explain to me what is going on....

    I've ignored US savings bonds for many years, due to very paltry percentage returns. But I've just been made aware that Series I savings bonds interest rate changed two months ago, from around 3.54% (not sure what the per cent was), to 7.12%..... :o

    Not sure if there has ever been an increase like that. I'm surprised at the rate and would like some other opinions regarding the jump.

    Granted... the interest rate changes every 6 months. The 7.12% interest rate will apply for 6 months for bonds purchased by March 31 2022; after 6 months a new interest rate is determined and then applies for the next 6 months, and so on.

    Looks like it could be an investment opportunity for those who might have lots of cash in low interest rate vehicles right now. One can purchase up to $10,000 of I bonds per year online; they normally have to be held for 5 years, but can be cashed back in after one year with a penalty (I think it is 1 quarters worth of interest). So... purchase a bond at the 7.12% interest; after 6 months, even if the new interest rate drops to zero percent, hold until the end of the full year and then can cash out if desired to get a yearly rate of 3.56% (the quarter interest penalty of a 0% interest rate would be zero dollars?) And of course if the new interest rate is more than zero... then your yearly return would be better than 3.56%.

    Am I missing something? Time to reconsider government bonds? A good opportunity? what is the risk as you see it?

    https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm

    ----- kj
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    cagcrispcagcrisp Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 30, 2021 1:38PM

    @tincup said:

    Am I missing something? Time to reconsider government bonds? A good opportunity? what is the risk as you see it?

    You have done a good job describing the pros. The con is that you have to purchase I Bonds from Treasury Direct and you are limited to $10,000 per year (as you have pointed out) and that the guarantee is for only 6 months (again as you have pointed out).

    Good for the small investor that doesn't mind going to a website that is not the most secure and give them your social security number...

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    cagcrispcagcrisp Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭✭✭

    I have had numerous clients ask me about IBonds over the years and I've never recommended them because I thought the lack of security outweighs the interest rate benefit...

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    tincuptincup Posts: 4,887 ✭✭✭✭✭

    One would think their website would be extremely secure... oops, wait... this is the US government we are talking about lol....

    ----- kj
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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 5:15PM

    @cagcrisp said:

    @tincup said:

    Am I missing something? Time to reconsider government bonds? A good opportunity? what is the risk as you see it?

    Good for the small investor that doesn't mind going to a website that is not the most secure and give them your social security number...

    should be least of your worries. Anyone who really wants your social security number likely already has it. No riskier than paying on-line with a credit card or using digital banking.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

    Too many questions? Too hard? Dont care? Dont know? Doesnt fit narrative? Dont like being called out?

    Haha

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    streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

    Too many questions? Too hard? Dont care? Dont know? Doesnt fit narrative? Dont like being called out?

    Haha

    DB,
    Don't feed the trolls.

    Have a nice day
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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @streeter said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    @derryb said:

    @cohodk said:

    What is the current level of private debt and how does that relate to historical levels? What is the servicing rate of that debt compared to historical levels? What is the type of debt, consumer, corporate, municipal, revolving, installment, asset backed, and how do those levels compare to historical? Also, how does this debt compare on a relative basis to asset prices? What is the median term and interest rate of these various debts?

    Too many questions? Too hard? Dont care? Dont know? Doesnt fit narrative? Dont like being called out?

    Haha

    DB,
    Don't feed the trolls.

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    You thirst and hunger for knowledge?

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 966 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 10:33AM

    @tincup said:

    Looks like it could be an investment opportunity for those who might have lots of cash in low interest rate vehicles right now. One can purchase up to $10,000 of I bonds per year online; they normally have to be held for 5 years, but can be cashed back in after one year with a penalty (I think it is 1 quarters worth of interest). So... purchase a bond at the 7.12% interest; after 6 months, even if the new interest rate drops to zero percent, hold until the end of the full year and then can cash out if desired to get a yearly rate of 3.56% (the quarter interest penalty of a 0% interest rate would be zero dollars?) And of course if the new interest rate is more than zero... then your yearly return would be better than 3.56%.
    https://treasurydirect.gov/indiv/products/prod_ibonds_glance.htm

    You have to hold for a minimum of 1 year. If you cash out between 1-5 years you lose the previous quarters (3 months) interest, not a quarter percent. 7.12% interest on a savings bond seems like a no brainer but as you point out the inflation rate is adjusted semi-annually so there is no guarantee it will stay at those levels for any significant amount of time. The problem imo is the fixed rate of the bond which is currently set at 0.0%. Back in 2015 the inflation rate was also 0% (Technically it was a negative .8%) so you would have been sitting on dead $$$. Most of the past 20 years or so it would have been better than $$$ sitting in a savings account.

    It's at least a good safe short-term bet for parking $10K as you pointed out. I thought about buying in but just can't get over the 0% fixed rate.

    PS: Here's a PDF from the Treasury Direct site showing semi-annual returns back to 1998. Certinly beats investing in the gutter. RGDS!
    https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/IBondRateChart.pdf

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    TPGSTPGS Posts: 207 ✭✭✭

    The new side investment / savings account. Buy now and store food, drinks, household essentials ect. It will only get more expensive.
    Supply chain issues, hyper inflation and a goverment that acts like they care more for non citizens than citizens.
    Lies are now the "new truth". Non peaceful peaceful demostrations.
    In this world I'm not willing to shop with panic shoppers who did not prep for this. I'll just watch it all happen on TV from the safety of my home.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Next from the idiots running the clown show: Price controls.

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    TPGSTPGS Posts: 207 ✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    Next from the idiots running the clown show: Price controls.

    Supply chain issues and closing of the oil pipe lines. The oil companies get accused of price gouging by the big guy. Wag the dog. Clown world indead.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 3:21PM

    @derryb said:
    You thirst and hunger for knowledge?

    You see right through me. Haha

    Happy New Year!!

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

    Indeed. So close to true enlightenment.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 966 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

    Indeed. So close to true enlightenment.

    I wish nothing more than you achieve that - soon

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 5:28PM

    Current consumer price inflation is not the result of future money creation - it is the result of past money creation that reached the consumers' hands. It is money that is here to stay and the higher prices it created are the new norm.

    Question that remains is will the FED completely stop the flow of new money and therefore halt further inflation increases or will it simply slow the flow of new money and only slow future inflation?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 5:33PM

    Globalization failure: Supply chain breakdown does contribute to inflation.

    IKEA raises prices 9% on what it claims are supply chain woes

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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited December 31, 2021 7:43PM

    @blitzdude said:

    That debt clock certainly continues to inflate. It jumped over $29T sometime in December and nobody even seemed to notice. We'll be at $30T in no time. lol

    Another $100B+ just in the past 4 days? LOL I think the clock must be broke. Happy New Year!!!

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    National debt is no longer relevant. Printing presses are.

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    cagcrispcagcrisp Posts: 1,057 ✭✭✭✭✭

    FINAL for CY2021.

    The “Supposed” Inflation Hedges did Not do so well in 2021…

    Coffee 76.3%
    Gasoline 58.2%
    Diesel 57.8%
    Crude Oil 55.0%
    S&P 500 Energy 47.7%
    Natural Gas 46.9%
    Cotton 44.1%
    S&P 500 Real Estate 42.5%
    DJ Select REIT Index 41.6%
    S&P 500 Technology 33.4%
    S&P 500 Financials 32.5%
    Tel Aviv 35 32.0%
    DJ Transportation Average 31.8 %
    CAC-40 (France) 28.9%
    Amsterdam AEX 27.7%
    Bloomberg Commodity Index 27.1%
    S&P 500 26.9%
    Copper 26.8%
    Nasdaq 100 26.6%
    S&P Small Cap 600 25.3%
    S&P 500 Materials 25.0%
    S&P 500 Health Care 24.2%
    Taiwan Weighted Index 23.7%
    S&P 500 Cons. Discretionary 23.7%
    S&P Mid Cap 400 23.2%
    FTSE MIB (Italy) 23.0%
    Corn 22.6%
    Stoxx Europe 600 22.2%
    S&P BSE Sensex (India) 22.0%
    Sugar21.9%
    S&P/TSX Composite (Canada) 21.7%
    Nasdaq Composite 21.4%
    IPC Index (Mexico) 20.9%
    S&P 500 Comm. Services 20.5%
    Euro Stoxx 20.4%
    Wheat 20.3%
    Swiss Market Index 20.3%
    Cattle 20.1%
    S&P 500 Industrials 19.4%
    BEL-20 (Belgium) 19.0%
    Dow Jones Industrial Average 18.7%
    Orange Juice 18.7%
    Lean Hogs 15.9%
    DAX (Germany) 15.8%
    S&P 500 Consumer Staples 15.6%
    FTSE 100 (U.K.) 14.3%
    S&P 500 Utilities 14.0%
    Russell 2000 13.7%
    Dow Jones Utility Average 13.4%
    S&P/ASX 200 (Australia) 13.0%
    FTSE Straits Times (Singapore) 9.8%
    IBEX 35 (Spain) 7.9%
    WSJ Dollar Index 5.4%
    Nikkei Stock Average (Japan) 4.9%
    Shanghai Composite 4.8%
    Ukrainian Hryvnia 3.7%
    Kospi (South Korea) 3.6%
    Israeli Shekel 3.3%
    Chinese Yuan 2.8%
    New Taiwan Dollar 1.3%
    Treasury Inflation-Protected Sec. 1.2%
    Soybeans 1.0%
    Vietnamese Dong 1.0%
    Canadian Dollar 0.8%
    Kuwaiti Dinar 0.5%


    High-Yield Corporate Bonds –0.3%
    Macanese Pataca –0.6%
    Municipal Bonds –0.8%
    1-3 Yr. U.S. Treasurys –1.0%
    British Pound –1.0%
    Russian Ruble –1.0%
    Indonesian Rupiah –1.4%
    Icelandic Krona –1.5%
    IPSA (Chile) –1.8%
    Czech Koruna –1.9%
    Indian Rupee –2.0%
    Singapore Dollar –2.0%
    Norwegian Krone –2.6%
    Swiss Franc –3.0%
    Mexican Peso –3.0%
    Kazakhstani Tenge –3.2%
    Cocoa –3.2%
    Malaysian Ringgit –3.4%
    Gold –3.5%
    U.S. Bonds Total Market –3.9%
    Investment-Grade Corp. Bonds –4.1%
    7-10 Yr. U.S. Treasurys –4.1%
    New Zealand Dollar –4.8%
    Uruguayan Peso –5.3%
    Australian Dollar –5.6%
    International Bonds –5.8%
    Philippine Peso –5.9%
    Emerging-Markets Bonds –5.9%
    20+ Yr. U.S. Treasurys –6.0%
    Croatian Kuna –6.5%
    Brazilian Real –6.8%
    Danish Krone –6.9%
    Bulgarian Lev –6.9%
    Euro –6.9%
    Polish Zloty –7.3%
    South African Rand –7.8%
    Romanian New Leu –8.5%
    Hungarian Forint –8.5%
    South Korean Won –8.7%
    Pakistani Rupee –9.0%
    Swedish Krona –9.1%
    Thai Baht –9.6%
    Japanese Yen –10.2%
    Platinum –10.3%
    Silver –11.4%
    Bovespa Index (Brazil) –11.9%
    Hang Seng (Hong Kong) –14.1%
    Chilean Peso –16.6%
    Argentine Peso –18.1%
    Turkish Lira -44.2%

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 1, 2022 10:07AM

    You forgot the US Dollar. lol

    . . . and all of the cryptos.

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    streeterstreeter Posts: 4,312 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Oatmeal!!!

    Where's the oatmeal?

    Have a nice day
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    blitzdudeblitzdude Posts: 5,606 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @streeter said:
    Oatmeal!!!

    Where's the oatmeal?

    Oats were right at the top. And the USD was up too. 6.45%..........

    The whole worlds off its rocker, buy Gold™.

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

    Indeed. So close to true enlightenment.

    I wish nothing more than you achieve that - soon

    If only derryb would answer my questions, we would ALL be enlightened. Even you.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 966 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

    Indeed. So close to true enlightenment.

    I wish nothing more than you achieve that - soon

    If only derryb would answer my questions, we would ALL be enlightened. Even you.

    Fortunately I have access to the interwebs and can find answers to questions that warrant further research…

    Maybe next Christmas your family can get you that capability

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    cohodkcohodk Posts: 18,766 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    @taxmad said:

    @cohodk said:

    Ah yes, the thirst and hunger for knowledge shall never be satiated.

    Clearly a Tantalean punishment for you cohodk. If there were only a way for you to escape...

    Indeed. So close to true enlightenment.

    I wish nothing more than you achieve that - soon

    If only derryb would answer my questions, we would ALL be enlightened. Even you.

    Fortunately I have access to the interwebs and can find answers to questions that warrant further research…

    Maybe next Christmas your family can get you that capability

    No family. No friends. Thats why I turn to your ilk for companionship. Its tough living under a rock.

    Excuses are tools of the ignorant

    Knowledge is the enemy of fear

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 966 ✭✭✭✭

    @cohodk said:

    No family. No friends. That's why I turn to your ilk for companionship. Its tough living under a bridge.

    FIFY

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    TPGSTPGS Posts: 207 ✭✭✭

    The latest inflation trick. Don't raise the price of your product. Just decrease the amount or weight of your product. Pretty sneaky. :)

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    why are gas prices still carried three decimal places? Just think of all the electricity that could be save on all those electronic billboards. Where are the tree huggers on this one?

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    bigjpstbigjpst Posts: 3,052 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Because 3.999 feels so much better than 4.000

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    TPGSTPGS Posts: 207 ✭✭✭

    @derryb said:
    why are gas prices still carried three decimal places? Just think of all the electricity that could be save on all those electronic billboards. Where are the tree huggers on this one?

    Because the tree huggers want gas stations to fail. They want all gas station transformed to charging stations.

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Why did this woman just resign as chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC)?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2, 2022 10:02AM

    @TPGS said:

    @derryb said:
    why are gas prices still carried three decimal places? Just think of all the electricity that could be save on all those electronic billboards. Where are the tree huggers on this one?

    Because the tree huggers want gas stations to fail. They want all gas station transformed to charging stations.

    Like they didn't want guns in CA. . . until they needed one?

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    derrybderryb Posts: 36,373 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited January 2, 2022 10:21AM

    @bigjpst said:
    Because 3.999 feels so much better than 4.000

    wouldn't you feel better if they said 3.99?

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    taxmadtaxmad Posts: 966 ✭✭✭✭

    It is interesting that fuel is listed for sale at a unit price you cannot acquire one unit at the advertised price. Imagine the reaction if Kroger began selling produce for $X.XXX a pound...

This discussion has been closed.