The plats are doing fine. The W mint marked gold has been the target of marketers that are in the process of corning the market. One guy has thousands of them and he is not alone. About half the 2006-2008 fractional gold w issues have been taken off the market by a hand full of people. I mentioned in the text that the price growth would likely move faster than that normally associated with collector growth rates for mint state gold and that is and has been the case.
2008-w plat quarters at mint issue were about 330 bucks and most would grade 70. Now they are $900 each if they are nice. 2008-w plat halves at mint issue were about $650 and most trade around $1800 each if they are nice.
2008 proof plat dimes were $149 and now they are $400 raw and $500 if they make grade. 2008 proof plat quarters were $340 and now they are about $750 raw & $900 if they make grade. 2008 proof plat halves have raw doubled and if they make grade tripled.
Guys the mighty buffs are trading at 3-4 times issue price for 4 coin sets.
The bottom line is super coins spike, get soft (or flat) for a few years and then rise for 10 years if they are great. Go review page 49 of our book. The only thing that modifies this tendency is if heavy handed marketers come in and accelerate the process by pulling the flipper inventory down. The W mint marked gold is still an OK buy because the the cornering party(s) have not driven the price into full maturity range. If the guys with thousands of coins needed to sell watch out below however. No body has tried to corner the plats their prices reflect small time collector/investor demand. This is good.
The W mint marked gold has been the target of marketers that are in the process of corning the market. One guy has thousands of them and he is not alone. About half the 2006-2008 fractional gold w issues have been taken off the market by a hand full of people.
Who are those people and wow, they must have deep pockets.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
Overdate - I see the "bid" prices but wonder if they really pay bid as I was talking about real money that they will spend buying. I got 4.5% under spot cash, no extra cra- but since I still got about 40% above what I originally paid was not too upset. Hated to let them go but had to pay attorneys ( you will know what I mean if you ever go to so-called family court).
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Gold price is above $1400 now. Do you guys think Mint will raise price again this week (assuming price stays above $1440)? I am thinking about grabbing a AGE proof set before it is sold out. I know it does not meet Eric's criteria but I prefer a proof set than a bullion coin. Got enough of Buchanan proof.
Louisa could have been flying under the radar a bit. I know it went dark before people were really even talking about the low mintages so much. Could it perhaps have better dispersion than some of the subsequent issues (which may have been hoarded by dealers and speculators), and therefore be harder to obtain? I am talking total population here, not FS.
Since my collection consists of both pcgs and ngc coins I do not have a registry here. Could someone tell me if first strike coins garner more points in the registry than non first strike? I can't get my head around the first strike madness except that it seems to be a brilliant marketing strategy. No comprende!?!
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>Gold price is above $1400 now. Do you guys think Mint will raise price again this week (assuming price stays above $1440)? I am thinking about grabbing a AGE proof set before it is sold out. I know it does not meet Eric's criteria but I prefer a proof set than a bullion coin. Got enough of Buchanan proof. >>
Did you manage to get one set? It is sold out now.
I think PCGS suspended the First Strike program briefly during the time the Louisa Adams coins first came out, making the First Strike population for these coins rarer than predecessors. Maybe this perception of rarity persists, giving the price a boost.
Some of those recent FS spouse prices seem a bit peculiar to me as: (1) some were private auctions with the same coins back on ebay a couple days later by same seller(s) (of course they could have been simply more coins)?; (2) some of the coins have dups on ebay from different sellers for hundreds if not $1,000+ less that are not selling (and here again buyers could have simply impulsively hit BIN's on the much more expensive pieces)? I simply always run into the "smart shoppers" on ebay when they inquire about my auctions!
Wondercoin
P.S. When I was assisting the Price Guide editor with pricing on these FS spouse coins last month, we came across an ebay sale at $7,500 for one of the FS coins where a subsequent sale of the same spouse FS coin sold at $2,950 (and the next one after that was listed on ebay at $3,495 OBO and I did not see a sale on that one). Again, this is not to question the luck of any particular ebay seller in achieving for example a $7,500 sale of a coin then followed by a $2,950 sale of a subsequent coin. But, collectors should certainly be well versed in understanding values (especially of labels) when potentially one sale to the next could be $4,000 or $5,000 apart.
Please visit my website at www.wondercoins.com and my ebay auctions under my user name www.wondercoin.com.
Well, I'll do my analysis. It's a slam-dunk on the mintages, no question about it. So, why aren't they on a relentless climb towards $5,000 per coin? In my opinion, there simply aren't 2,253 Plat collectors out there, and there may never be 2,253 Plat collectors. Until there actually are 2,253 Plat collectors the series will not take off like a rocket
I agree with you.
I sold off all my 2006 w Platinum MS except for the $10 and $50. I do have the $10, $25, $50 2008 w plat proof bought from the mint. Still deciding whether I want to go for the $100 for a complete set.
One thing that will help albiet it slowly is the gradual attrition of time.
This was brought home to me 2 weeks ago when a frozen upstairs pipe in a second home flooded 3 floors including a basement storage area where OGP for some AGEs and APEs were stored. (Coins in safe deposit box)
Fires, floods, theft and losses in general likely run around 1/10 to 2/10th of one percent per year.
Add in losses to smelters and there is a small but slow decline in surviving populations with time.
I have been following the thread about the 5 oz. America the Beautiful bullion set and I am quite amazed at the frenzy over these coins and the prices that people (collectors?) are paying for them. I would like to have a set but refuse to pay much more than a grand for them. I will buy a set from an AP like APMEX, if the opportunity comes. (I will be sitting on the computer with phone in hand when the Mint issue 2010 set goes on sale, but I am not killing myself for a set of the bullion.)
I have not seen much discussion about them on my favorite PCGS thread, so I wondered what you all think of the frenzy surrounding these coins. Obliviously the short term prospects for the bullion is strong, with the APs playing games on releasing them, and if any 70s are found they will be outrageous, but I wondered what you all think of the long term prospects for the bullion set and the soon to be issued 2010 mint sets.
Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year!!
Edited to add, Eric, I just checked your book, page 222, did the national park service buy any of these coins for resale, they could have made a quick buck.
MsMorrisine, can you imagine if you would have gotten the deal togeather to get a hundred sets of these, you would have had to hire the national guard to protect you until you got all the sets to the buyers.
Guys go look at page 50 of our book. The first year has the tendency of being higher mintage than the coins that are issued after year or issue 4. Think about how the mint had a hard time getting out the orders for the first year First Hags and that contributed to a short term market shortage. They were new and everyone went nuts over Martha Washington and now you can hardly give them away for anything over melt.
Now the introductory 5 coin national parks coin set has a 33,000 mintage with a thousand dollar price more or less. Most of us think of 33,000 coins as being a low mintage silver issue and in some ways it is but what people are not considering is that the sets are not a 33,000 mintage issue in the midst of a big silver series made up of dozens of $40 coins with 500,000+ mintages. They are thousand dollar issues and its not so long ago that gold and platinum sets with mintages just a tiny fraction of the 33,000 parks coins had a long run to move 2,000-20,000 per issue in that price range. The bottom line is these sets are NOT RARE FOR THE PRICE RANGE THEY INHABIT!
They are a OK buy at 1.2 times melt and I am buying them when I can direct from the Mints blessed vendors at no more than 1.2 times melt. Good looking coins go in for grading and the rest I will dump ASAP. The national parks 5 oz national parks coins with their 1000 dollar price tags are not likely to be the key to the set in my best guess. If they are not able to hold onto key date status they are going to take a fall from the over 2000 dollar prices we currently see on ebay. I would say buy what you can and dump what you can as fast as you can because these dont look like long term super coins to me.
<< <i>I have been following the thread about the 5 oz. America the Beautiful bullion set and I am quite amazed at the frenzy over these coins and the prices that people (collectors?) are paying for them. I would like to have a set but refuse to pay much more than a grand for them. I will buy a set from an AP like APMEX, if the opportunity comes. (I will be sitting on the computer with phone in hand when the Mint issue 2010 set goes on sale, but I am not killing myself for a set of the bullion.)
I have not seen much discussion about them on my favorite PCGS thread, so I wondered what you all think of the frenzy surrounding these coins. Obliviously the short term prospects for the bullion is strong, with the APs playing games on releasing them, and if any 70s are found they will be outrageous, but I wondered what you all think of the long term prospects for the bullion set and the soon to be issued 2010 mint sets.
Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year!!
Edited to add, Eric, I just checked your book, page 222, did the national park service buy any of these coins for resale, they could have made a quick buck. >>
None of them did as far as I know and they could have done well on them.
While we are on the topic of Legislation. Notice that the 1890 law regarding 25 year design stability expires on the silver and gold eagles this year. They COULD (notice I did not say will) change the design on these coins in the next few year(s). This would close the gold and silver eagle sets. Now that would be worthy of note and the W mint marked keys would start building strength.
<< The national parks 5 oz national parks coins with their 1000 dollar price tags are not likely to be the key to the set in my best guess. If they are not able to hold onto key date status they are going to take a fall from the over 2000 dollar prices we currently see on ebay. I would say buy what you can and dump what you can as fast as you can because these dont look like long term super coins to me. >>
If future issues are struck to demand and priced with premiums comparable to those of Silver Eagles, then the 2010 issues could very well become the keys to the set.
Over 30 million Silver Eagles were sold last year, primarily to bullion buyers, and it's likely that future bullion buyers would diversify some of their purchases to 5-ounce National Parks quarters if the percentage premiums were the same. I would anticipate 6-figure mintages for each design if sold at near-bullion prices.
I do agree that the 2010 issues are not likely to be long term super coins, even if they are the keys. The 33,000 mintages are just too high relative to the number of collectors likely to attempt to form complete sets.
On the other hand those (IMO) ridiculous 08 rev 07 eagles have a mintage of 47k, are a relatively insignificant variant and bring 600-700 dollars for only one ounce...
I do agree that it seems hard to imagine that there are 33k collectors out there so maybe flipper special for a year or two...
PS - I tend to disagree with Eric's analysis of first year of issue mintage because of the arteficially relatively low mintage of these ATB pucks.
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
Yeah, I'm also thinking the typical first-year analysis probably doesn't work for these pucks. In fact, I could see these being the lows for the series, at least for the first few years. If the economy improves and interest in PMs wanes (not likely), then maybe something could dip lower later, but it doesn't seem likely. Not that that increases my interest in them. I will definitely buy some of the collector versions when they come out, but only the designs I really like.
While we are on the topic of Legislation. Notice that the 1890 law regarding 25 year design stability expires on the silver and gold eagles this year. They COULD (notice I did not say will) change the design on these coins in the next few year(s). This would close the gold and silver eagle sets. Now that would be worthy of note and the W mint marked keys would start building strength.
I noticed when the State Quarter Program ended, that the opposite happened to the value of these. PCGS DCAM 70 Proof Silver State Quarters can be had for around $100. A very steep decline in prices. e.g. a 2002 Vermont PCGS DCAM 70 Silver Proof could be had for $95 on Teletrade. A very steep decline. Another example is the NGC PF 70 Delaware State Quarter. 3 years ago it could not be had for less than 5K. Now they are in the 2K range.
When a series is no longer produced by the U.S. Mint, does interest also wane in that particular series resulting in a drop in prices?
This was also one of the reasons I sold off my NGC PF 70 American Silver Eagle Proof Registry Set last year. If U.S. Mint ends the ASE and AGE series, will interest wane in the series?
I have all the 2006- 2008 AGE Burnished w 1/10 and 1/4 in PCGS MS 70 except for the 1/10 2008 in PCGS 69. All self made. These will be long term holds. I will be watching closely see how these will do.
"When a series is no longer produced by the U.S. Mint, does interest also wane in that particular series resulting in a drop in prices?"
Yes it can. While the series is still being produced, there is advertising by the US Mint and there is also hype in the secondary marketplace. That keeps interest up and the series in the forefront. But when the series is over... it is on to the next series or pucks or new alloy issue, whatever. The previous series will suffer and prices will drop.
Later, in the future, when true rarities are better recognized, then some of the previous series issues may then start to gain in price again.
One comment on the future prices of the 2010 hockey pucks. While I concur there will probably NOT be 33.000 collectors of the series, and thus in that context would agree with the previous posts regarding values just a little above bullion as a result, that is not the entire picture. That would apply if there were only collectors of the series, or the entire yearly issue, etc.
But that is surely not likely to be the case. I suspect there will be more than 33,000 collectors interested in JUST the Grand Canyon issue, or JUST the Mt. Hood issue, or Yellowstone, and so on (not too sure about the Hot Springs one though!). You will definitely see sets slowly but surely broken up to supply this demand. Thus there will be less complete sets available, and there will be some individual coins that bring much better prices.
I see a divided market... some issues will end up to be bullion, but others will be very popular and prices will reflect that. And then there is the issue of graded MS69 coins and what the populations of those end up to be. I think the next 10 years will be interesting for these coins.
I do agree that the 2010 issues are not likely to be long term super coins, even if they are the keys.
I think it's too early to tell whether or not a true following develops for the pucks, but having had experience with extremely low mintage Plats I'm compelled to say that it could go either way.
The 33,000 mintages are just too high relative to the number of collectors likely to attempt to form complete sets.
Good point. It's another series that will demand a significant outlay to collect, if you are serious about collecting them. And in the end, you've got a mass of big unwieldy discs to store and care for. It may be that the true collectors do well because of lack of committment by most everyone else.
I could see these being the lows for the series, at least for the first few years. If the economy improves and interest in PMs wanes (not likely), then maybe something could dip lower later, but it doesn't seem likely.
By the same token if the economy doesn't improve and silver continues to rise, I would expect mintages of these to drop off as they become more expensive from the Mint and distribution syndicate.
When a series is no longer produced by the U.S. Mint, does interest also wane in that particular series resulting in a drop in prices? This was also one of the reasons I sold off my NGC PF 70 American Silver Eagle Proof Registry Set last year. If U.S. Mint ends the ASE and AGE series, will interest wane in the series?
I tend to agree with Eric's comments about the Silver Eagles in his book - that they are the new silver dollars. As that relates to a set of PF-70s, I would note that pristine Morgans didn't really start to skyrocket until about 50 years after the last ones were made, and most dates were alot older than 50 years old by then.
While I concur there will probably NOT be 33.000 collectors of the series, and thus in that context would agree with the previous posts regarding values just a little above bullion as a result, that is not the entire picture. That would apply if there were only collectors of the series, or the entire yearly issue, etc.
But that is surely not likely to be the case. I suspect there will be more than 33,000 collectors interested in JUST the Grand Canyon issue, or JUST the Mt. Hood issue, or Yellowstone, and so on (not too sure about the Hot Springs one though!). You will definitely see sets slowly but surely broken up to supply this demand. Thus there will be less complete sets available, and there will be some individual coins that bring much better prices.
Good points about these becoming individually-sought. I'm wondering if these won't track in a similar way to the Commemorative Halves Series - the first 30 years showing some differentiation, but the prices lagging as a series until maybe 30 years down the road......
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I've been following most modern threads for a while without much interaction but quite value your all opinions. I'd like to pick up 2008-W $10 AGE for a while but for now have been holding off to pay close to 4X melt for it. I think the prices for them started coming down a little bit but not sure how far and for how long. What are your opinions/price prognosis for this coin and when is the good time to buy it?
What would be "reasonable" price to pay for raw/MS69 and PCGS MS70?
Thanks in advance.
PS - I know Eric's opinion about it as the "super-key" but still would not want to overpay for it ;-)
I've been following most modern threads for a while without much interaction but quite value your all opinions. I'd like to pick up 2008-W $10 AGE for a while but for now have been holding off to pay close to 4X melt for it. I think the prices for them started coming down a little bit but not sure how far and for how long. What are your opinions/price prognosis for this coin and when is the good time to buy it?
What would be "reasonable" price to pay for raw/MS69 and PCGS MS70?
Thanks in advance.
PS - I know Eric's opinion about it as the "super-key" but still would not want to overpay for it ;-) >>
My opinion on the burnished version of this coin, for what it's worth, is that the 2008-W $10 is fairly priced at the moment, without a great amount of downside risk or upside potential.
I think the 2008-W $5 burnished AGE (1/10 ounce) is the better buy at current prices. Even though the mintage is 40% higher than that of the $10 (1/4 ounce), there are many more collectors of the 1/10 ounce and the price is currently way lower.
My opinion on the burnished version of this coin, for what it's worth, is that the 2008-W $10 is fairly priced at the moment, without a great amount of downside risk or upside potential.
I kind of agree that the 2008-W $10 is fairly-priced at the moment as well. I do think that there is some upside potential remaining, but it will probably be a gradual climb from here. That is one Modern Bullion coin that I wouldn't make the mistake of under-estimating, though. It has a lower mintage than any of the fractional 2008-W Gold Buffs.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
In the IRS sale the last week of 2010 apmex had a large quantity of them in OGP for $1095, they dissapeared quickly. I managed to grab several '07-w $10 unc AGE's from that they were inexplicably selling far under greysheet bid.
<< <i>In the IRS sale the last week of 2010 apmex had a large quantity of them in OGP for $1095, they dissapeared quickly. I managed to grab several '07-w $10 unc AGE's from that they were inexplicably selling far under greysheet bid. >>
Do you mean APMEX was selling 08' $10 for $1095? And you managed to grab some 07' $10?
Yes if I recall they had 6 in stock at that price, and another just in a capsule for 995. I was able to grab five '07-w $10's for about $530 ea., those actually went on sale before the IRS promo took place.
Comments
The plats are doing fine. The W mint marked gold has been the target of marketers that are in the process of corning the market. One guy has thousands of them and he is not alone. About half the 2006-2008 fractional gold w issues have been taken off the market by a hand full of people. I mentioned in the text that the price growth would likely move faster than that normally associated with collector growth rates for mint state gold and that is and has been the case.
2008-w plat quarters at mint issue were about 330 bucks and most would grade 70. Now they are $900 each if they are nice.
2008-w plat halves at mint issue were about $650 and most trade around $1800 each if they are nice.
2008 proof plat dimes were $149 and now they are $400 raw and $500 if they make grade.
2008 proof plat quarters were $340 and now they are about $750 raw & $900 if they make grade.
2008 proof plat halves have raw doubled and if they make grade tripled.
Guys the mighty buffs are trading at 3-4 times issue price for 4 coin sets.
The bottom line is super coins spike, get soft (or flat) for a few years and then rise for 10 years if they are great. Go review page 49 of our book. The only thing that modifies this tendency is if heavy handed marketers come in and accelerate the process by pulling the flipper inventory down. The W mint marked gold is still an OK buy because the the cornering party(s) have not driven the price into full maturity range. If the guys with thousands of coins needed to sell watch out below however. No body has tried to corner the plats their prices reflect small time collector/investor demand. This is good.
All the great moderns are going to be alright.
<< <i>Guys,
The W mint marked gold has been the target of marketers that are in the process of corning the market. One guy has thousands of them and he is not alone. About half the 2006-2008 fractional gold w issues have been taken off the market by a hand full of people.
Who are those people and wow, they must have deep pockets.
Here (check buy price near bottom of page - compare with bullion)
and
here (see platinum buy prices near the bottom - also note the "sold out" signs to the right).
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Thanks VERY MUCH for the great posts!!
Wishing you all a happy and healthy new year.
<< <i>jmski and eric-
Thanks VERY MUCH for the great posts!!
Wishing you all a happy and healthy new year. >>
Same here
Well, just Love coins, period.
Louisa Adams MS70 First strike $ 4,350.
Van Buren-----MS70 First strike $ 3,399.
Jackson-------- MS70 First strike $ 3,295.
Jackson-------- PR70 First strike $ 3,395.
I was looking at PCGS pop report and noticed the lowest MS70 First strike
spouses are:
Letitia Tyler-------92 Coins
Louisa adams----95 Coins
Anna Harrison----95 Coins
Lowest PR70 First strikes are:
Louisa adoms----------71 Coins
Margaret Taylor-------71 Coins
Julia Tyler---------------72 Coins
Anna Harrison---------86 Coins
It Looks Like putting together 70 First strike sets are some what limmeted!!
<< <i>Wow 2008 70 First Spouse Gold selling for big premiums over spot.
Louisa Adams MS70 First strike $ 4,350.
Van Buren-----MS70 First strike $ 3,399.
Jackson-------- MS70 First strike $ 3,295.
Jackson-------- PR70 First strike $ 3,395.
I was looking at PCGS pop report and noticed the lowest MS70 First strike
spouses are:
Letitia Tyler-------92 Coins
Louisa adams----95 Coins
Anna Harrison----95 Coins
Lowest PR70 First strikes are:
Louisa adoms----------71 Coins
Margaret Taylor-------71 Coins
Julia Tyler---------------72 Coins
Anna Harrison---------86 Coins
It Looks Like putting together 70 First strike sets are some what limmeted!!
Thanks for the great post!!
I bought a Julia PCGS 70FS the day that they went dark for $1300 with some serious reservations that I overpaid. Turned out to be a good gamble.
It's hard to understand why the Adams is bringing so much more than coins which are both lower mintage and lower 70FS census.
<< <i>Gold price is above $1400 now. Do you guys think Mint will raise price again this week (assuming price stays above $1440)? I am thinking about grabbing a AGE proof set before it is sold out. I know it does not meet Eric's criteria but I prefer a proof set than a bullion coin. Got enough of Buchanan proof. >>
Did you manage to get one set? It is sold out now.
Looks like the 1/4 oz may go soon, too.
Wondercoin
P.S. When I was assisting the Price Guide editor with pricing on these FS spouse coins last month, we came across an ebay sale at $7,500 for one of the FS coins where a subsequent sale of the same spouse FS coin sold at $2,950 (and the next one after that was listed on ebay at $3,495 OBO and I did not see a sale on that one). Again, this is not to question the luck of any particular ebay seller in achieving for example a $7,500 sale of a coin then followed by a $2,950 sale of a subsequent coin. But, collectors should certainly be well versed in understanding values (especially of labels) when potentially one sale to the next could be $4,000 or $5,000 apart.
I agree with you.
I sold off all my 2006 w Platinum MS except for the $10 and $50. I do have the $10, $25, $50 2008 w plat proof bought from the mint. Still deciding whether I want to go for the $100 for a complete set.
Box of 20
This was brought home to me 2 weeks ago when a frozen upstairs pipe in a second home flooded 3 floors including a basement storage area where OGP for some AGEs and APEs were stored. (Coins in safe deposit box)
Fires, floods, theft and losses in general likely run around 1/10 to 2/10th of one percent per year.
Add in losses to smelters and there is a small but slow decline in surviving populations with time.
<< <i>I see Louisa Adams coins on ebay PCGS MS69 FS with BIN @ $1200, dosent seem like much of a premium? >>
First Strikes in 69 don't seem to carry much of a premium, it's the First Strike 70's that bring the big bucks.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
Legislation requires Gold and Silver Eagles to be struck to demand. Is there any similar legislation regarding Platinum Eagles?
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>I see Louisa Adams coins on ebay PCGS MS69 FS with BIN @ $1200, dosent seem like much of a premium? >>
First Strikes in 69 don't seem to carry much of a premium, it's the First Strike 70's that bring the big bucks. >>
What about MS70 non FS coins?
I knew it would happen.
I have not seen much discussion about them on my favorite PCGS thread, so I wondered what you all think of the frenzy surrounding these coins. Obliviously the short term prospects for the bullion is strong, with the APs playing games on releasing them, and if any 70s are found they will be outrageous, but I wondered what you all think of the long term prospects for the bullion set and the soon to be issued 2010 mint sets.
Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year!!
Edited to add, Eric, I just checked your book, page 222, did the national park service buy any of these coins for resale, they could have made a quick buck.
I was just today wondering what his take on them was myself.
<< <i>well, eric is about the only person who hasn't chimed in on them in some thread or another.
I was just today wondering what his take on them was myself. >>
Yes, eric you've been so quiet on these. We'd LOVE to get your thoughts on these and the numismatic versions (if they ever sell them).
Thanks!!!
<< <i>
<< <i>well, eric is about the only person who hasn't chimed in on them in some thread or another.
I was just today wondering what his take on them was myself. >>
Yes, eric you've been so quiet on these. We'd LOVE to get your thoughts on these and the numismatic versions (if they ever sell them).
Thanks!!! >>
Eric is a semi-newlywed, so he's smart laying low, going to work and coming home to the Mrs.
Now the introductory 5 coin national parks coin set has a 33,000 mintage with a thousand dollar price more or less. Most of us think of 33,000 coins as being a low mintage silver issue and in some ways it is but what people are not considering is that the sets are not a 33,000 mintage issue in the midst of a big silver series made up of dozens of $40 coins with 500,000+ mintages. They are thousand dollar issues and its not so long ago that gold and platinum sets with mintages just a tiny fraction of the 33,000 parks coins had a long run to move 2,000-20,000 per issue in that price range. The bottom line is these sets are NOT RARE FOR THE PRICE RANGE THEY INHABIT!
They are a OK buy at 1.2 times melt and I am buying them when I can direct from the Mints blessed vendors at no more than 1.2 times melt. Good looking coins go in for grading and the rest I will dump ASAP.
The national parks 5 oz national parks coins with their 1000 dollar price tags are not likely to be the key to the set in my best guess. If they are not able to hold onto key date status they are going to take a fall from the over 2000 dollar prices we currently see on ebay. I would say buy what you can and dump what you can as fast as you can because these dont look like long term super coins to me.
Best Wishes
Eric
<< <i>I have been following the thread about the 5 oz. America the Beautiful bullion set and I am quite amazed at the frenzy over these coins and the prices that people (collectors?) are paying for them. I would like to have a set but refuse to pay much more than a grand for them. I will buy a set from an AP like APMEX, if the opportunity comes. (I will be sitting on the computer with phone in hand when the Mint issue 2010 set goes on sale, but I am not killing myself for a set of the bullion.)
I have not seen much discussion about them on my favorite PCGS thread, so I wondered what you all think of the frenzy surrounding these coins. Obliviously the short term prospects for the bullion is strong, with the APs playing games on releasing them, and if any 70s are found they will be outrageous, but I wondered what you all think of the long term prospects for the bullion set and the soon to be issued 2010 mint sets.
Best wishes for a happy and prosperous New Year!!
Edited to add, Eric, I just checked your book, page 222, did the national park service buy any of these coins for resale, they could have made a quick buck.
None of them did as far as I know and they could have done well on them.
If future issues are struck to demand and priced with premiums comparable to those of Silver Eagles, then the 2010 issues could very well become the keys to the set.
Over 30 million Silver Eagles were sold last year, primarily to bullion buyers, and it's likely that future bullion buyers would diversify some of their purchases to 5-ounce National Parks quarters if the percentage premiums were the same. I would anticipate 6-figure mintages for each design if sold at near-bullion prices.
I do agree that the 2010 issues are not likely to be long term super coins, even if they are the keys. The 33,000 mintages are just too high relative to the number of collectors likely to attempt to form complete sets.
Go Plats!
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
I do agree that it seems hard to imagine that there are 33k collectors out there so maybe flipper special for a year or two...
PS - I tend to disagree with Eric's analysis of first year of issue mintage because of the arteficially relatively low mintage of these ATB pucks.
Well, just Love coins, period.
I noticed when the State Quarter Program ended, that the opposite happened to the value of these. PCGS DCAM 70 Proof Silver State Quarters can be had for around $100. A very steep decline in prices. e.g. a 2002 Vermont PCGS DCAM 70 Silver Proof could be had for $95 on Teletrade. A very steep decline. Another example is the NGC PF 70 Delaware State Quarter. 3 years ago it could not be had for less than 5K. Now they are in the 2K range.
When a series is no longer produced by the U.S. Mint, does interest also wane in that particular series resulting in a drop in prices?
This was also one of the reasons I sold off my NGC PF 70 American Silver Eagle Proof Registry Set last year. If U.S. Mint ends the ASE and AGE series, will interest wane in the series?
I have all the 2006- 2008 AGE Burnished w 1/10 and 1/4 in PCGS MS 70 except for the 1/10 2008 in PCGS 69. All self made. These will be long term holds. I will be watching closely see how these will do.
Box of 20
Yes it can. While the series is still being produced, there is advertising by the US Mint and there is also hype in the secondary marketplace. That keeps interest up and the series in the forefront. But when the series is over... it is on to the next series or pucks or new alloy issue, whatever. The previous series will suffer and prices will drop.
Later, in the future, when true rarities are better recognized, then some of the previous series issues may then start to gain in price again.
But that is surely not likely to be the case. I suspect there will be more than 33,000 collectors interested in JUST the Grand Canyon issue, or JUST the Mt. Hood issue, or Yellowstone, and so on (not too sure about the Hot Springs one though!). You will definitely see sets slowly but surely broken up to supply this demand. Thus there will be less complete sets available, and there will be some individual coins that bring much better prices.
I see a divided market... some issues will end up to be bullion, but others will be very popular and prices will reflect that. And then there is the issue of graded MS69 coins and what the populations of those end up to be. I think the next 10 years will be interesting for these coins.
I think it's too early to tell whether or not a true following develops for the pucks, but having had experience with extremely low mintage Plats I'm compelled to say that it could go either way.
The 33,000 mintages are just too high relative to the number of collectors likely to attempt to form complete sets.
Good point. It's another series that will demand a significant outlay to collect, if you are serious about collecting them. And in the end, you've got a mass of big unwieldy discs to store and care for. It may be that the true collectors do well because of lack of committment by most everyone else.
I could see these being the lows for the series, at least for the first few years. If the economy improves and interest in PMs wanes (not likely), then maybe something could dip lower later, but it doesn't seem likely.
By the same token if the economy doesn't improve and silver continues to rise, I would expect mintages of these to drop off as they become more expensive from the Mint and distribution syndicate.
When a series is no longer produced by the U.S. Mint, does interest also wane in that particular series resulting in a drop in prices? This was also one of the reasons I sold off my NGC PF 70 American Silver Eagle Proof Registry Set last year. If U.S. Mint ends the ASE and AGE series, will interest wane in the series?
I tend to agree with Eric's comments about the Silver Eagles in his book - that they are the new silver dollars. As that relates to a set of PF-70s, I would note that pristine Morgans didn't really start to skyrocket until about 50 years after the last ones were made, and most dates were alot older than 50 years old by then.
While I concur there will probably NOT be 33.000 collectors of the series, and thus in that context would agree with the previous posts regarding values just a little above bullion as a result, that is not the entire picture. That would apply if there were only collectors of the series, or the entire yearly issue, etc.
But that is surely not likely to be the case. I suspect there will be more than 33,000 collectors interested in JUST the Grand Canyon issue, or JUST the Mt. Hood issue, or Yellowstone, and so on (not too sure about the Hot Springs one though!). You will definitely see sets slowly but surely broken up to supply this demand. Thus there will be less complete sets available, and there will be some individual coins that bring much better prices.
Good points about these becoming individually-sought. I'm wondering if these won't track in a similar way to the Commemorative Halves Series - the first 30 years showing some differentiation, but the prices lagging as a series until maybe 30 years down the road......
I knew it would happen.
I've been following most modern threads for a while without much interaction but quite value your all opinions. I'd like to pick up 2008-W $10 AGE for a while but for now have been holding off to pay close to 4X melt for it. I think the prices for them started coming down a little bit but not sure how far and for how long. What are your opinions/price prognosis for this coin and when is the good time to buy it?
What would be "reasonable" price to pay for raw/MS69 and PCGS MS70?
Thanks in advance.
PS - I know Eric's opinion about it as the "super-key" but still would not want to overpay for it ;-)
<< <i>Hi All.
I've been following most modern threads for a while without much interaction but quite value your all opinions. I'd like to pick up 2008-W $10 AGE for a while but for now have been holding off to pay close to 4X melt for it. I think the prices for them started coming down a little bit but not sure how far and for how long. What are your opinions/price prognosis for this coin and when is the good time to buy it?
What would be "reasonable" price to pay for raw/MS69 and PCGS MS70?
Thanks in advance.
PS - I know Eric's opinion about it as the "super-key" but still would not want to overpay for it ;-) >>
My opinion on the burnished version of this coin, for what it's worth, is that the 2008-W $10 is fairly priced at the moment, without a great amount of downside risk or upside potential.
I think the 2008-W $5 burnished AGE (1/10 ounce) is the better buy at current prices. Even though the mintage is 40% higher than that of the $10 (1/4 ounce), there are many more collectors of the 1/10 ounce and the price is currently way lower.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
My opinion on the burnished version of this coin, for what it's worth, is that the 2008-W $10 is fairly priced at the moment, without a great amount of downside risk or upside potential.
I kind of agree that the 2008-W $10 is fairly-priced at the moment as well. I do think that there is some upside potential remaining, but it will probably be a gradual climb from here. That is one Modern Bullion coin that I wouldn't make the mistake of under-estimating, though. It has a lower mintage than any of the fractional 2008-W Gold Buffs.
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>In the IRS sale the last week of 2010 apmex had a large quantity of them in OGP for $1095, they dissapeared quickly. I managed to grab several '07-w $10 unc AGE's from that they were inexplicably selling far under greysheet bid. >>
Do you mean APMEX was selling 08' $10 for $1095? And you managed to grab some 07' $10?
<< <i>By 'them' yes I meant the '08-w unc $10 gold eagle, the key date of known-mintage gold eagles. >>
Oh, it was really a sweet deal
Actually I think this coin is one on the big winners from '08
So I'm debating whether this is a reasonable price to pay for unknown quality ...