The United States Mint will be processing your subscription order for the 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) in approximately 4 weeks. Our records indicate you have the following subscription(s):
15 Silver Proof Set(s)
The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95.
It looks like they are going to bring out the yearly sets early. I wonder if the 2010 will go dark at that time?
<< <i>Just received this e-mail from the mint: Dear United States Mint Customer, The United States Mint will be processing your subscription order for the 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) in approximately 4 weeks. Our records indicate you have the following subscription(s): 15 Silver Proof Set(s) The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95. It looks like they are going to bring out the yearly sets early. I wonder if the 2010 will go dark at that time? >>
I got the same e-mail - they did the same for the eagle proof, about two months prior to release, so I guess they will be out in february.
After being away for awhile, I noticed that the 1999-W error $5.00 and $10.00 Eagles have been moving up nicely in price. I saw that a 1999-W $10.00 in PCGS-69 recently sold on e-bay for $1500.00, and others are stronger across the board as well.
Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening?
After being away for awhile, I noticed that the 1999-W error $5.00 and $10.00 Eagles have been moving up nicely in price. I saw that a 1999-W $10.00 in PCGS-69 recently sold on e-bay for $1500.00, and others are stronger across the board as well.
Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening?
Eric? >>
Hi David, Good to see you back in action on the boards. Did you notice the related thread running right now in the Precious Metals forum?
....yes, I saw the thread but I think that it was refering to generic burnished eagles. I am certainly pleased to see the 1999-Ws finally getting the respect they deserve!
<<After being away for awhile, I noticed that the 1999-W error $5.00 and $10.00 Eagles have been moving up nicely in price. I saw that a 1999-W $10.00 in PCGS-69 recently sold on e-bay for $1500.00, and others are stronger across the board as well.>>
<<Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening? >>
Yes...becasue we must all have added Eric's book to our book of the month reading lists!!!
I'll either be a very rich man one day thanks to that book...or my wife will be living in a refrigerator box under the interstate!!!
the latest mint stats show they were well under the max mintatge. 1 oz - 25,000/25,000 1/2 oz - 8,596/15,000 (now sold out) 1/4 oz - 7,226/16,000 4-coin set - 28,838/39,000 (almost sold out)
have sales been that brisk, this close to Christmas?
the latest mint stats show they were well under the max mintatge. 1 oz - 25,000/25,000 1/2 oz - 8,596/15,000 (now sold out) 1/4 oz - 7,226/16,000 4-coin set - 28,838/39,000 (almost sold out)
have sales been that brisk, this close to Christmas? >>
I ordered one a couple of weeks ago and it's been backordered ever since--now showing delivery near end of January. I'm guessing I probably won't receive it.
You want to buy a coin that has a price close to melt but is much rarer than its next rarest sibling. In other words a strong cheap key. The Only coin you show that fits that is the 2008-w gold eagle mint state. The Reverse proof mentioned by others is also a good option but its about twice melt. If you can find a nice 2008W $50 gold eagle for 1.25 times melt I would pick it up.
I think that the percentage premiums on scarce Gold Eagles will continue to decline as the price of gold continues to move up. If this turns out to be the case, then the most common bullion $50 Gold Eagle will outperform all of the above choices.
I think that the percentage premiums on scarce Gold Eagles will continue to decline as the price of gold continues to move up. If this turns out to be the case, then the most common bullion $50 Gold Eagle will outperform all of the above choices. >>
But if gold goes lower the reverse would be true. Also, that pattern may be more aplicable for coins that have matured valuations.
Gold and silver are valuable but wisdom is priceless.
<< <i>The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95. >>
>>
I just subscribed to this. By the time they finally issue it, I wonder what the price of silver will be per oz.? If it decreases, will they adjust the price accordingly?
<<I think that the percentage premiums on scarce Gold Eagles will continue to decline as the price of gold continues to move up. If this turns out to be the case, then the most common bullion $50 Gold Eagle will outperform all of the above choices.>>
But if gold goes lower the reverse would be true. Also, that pattern may be more aplicable for coins that have matured valuations.
Those are the two reasons to buy low mintage AGEs. Buffered on the downside by numismatic premium; always benefiting from a rise in the price of gold.
Merry Christmas, guys!
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
I just noticed that a PCGS MS70 FS Julia sold for $3100. There is one up now with a BIN for $3600. I don't think that there is a chance that it will bring $3600, but the $3100 is sweeet.
Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up >>
They're already going up slowly. I think the 1/10 oz. and 1/4 oz. will do the best, as the rising price of platinum will limit the number of people who can afford sets of the larger denominations.
If the price of platinum keeps increasing, common bullion platinum eagles may rise in value as fast or faster than the scarcer "W" issues for the next several years.
If you are 16, you should still be around to enjoy the run up. If you are 116, the odds are slightly lower.
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up >>
I don't believe there will be a substantial difference in price between the burnished W's. All three are ultra low mintages and all WILL do very well. Time frame? The 99w is still way under performing 11 years later...I'd say continue to buy while the prices are low and look at it as a gift!
6-8% inflation and 2.5k-3.5k platinum, which we will see over the next ~5 years, will be very interesting for the APEs. What will happen with $100 & $50 surviving pops?
Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up
Well, I'll do my analysis. It's a slam-dunk on the mintages, no question about it. So, why aren't they on a relentless climb towards $5,000 per coin? In my opinion, there simply aren't 2,253 Plat collectors out there, and there may never be 2,253 Plat collectors. Until there actually are 2,253 Plat collectors the series will not take off like a rocket.
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily, because there are other factors besides the number of Plat collectors that matter to this series. There is the obvious tie-in to precious metals, and that's been the predominant factor most of the time since the Plats first started. It is mostly investors who will most likely comprise the pool of future Plat collectors. From the standpoint of financing, that's a good thing.
As Eric Jordan points out in his book, the larger group of common dates acts as an advertisement for the keys in a Modern series. I agree with him on that, and I'll even go another step. With respect to the Burnished "W" Uncs, the Proof Plat Series also acts as a great ambassador for the rarer "W"s. Once an investor becomes aware of the overall association between mintage scarcity and price appreciation potential, the most natural thing to do is to pursue the keys.
For an expensive series, this does take time.
In the meantime, another crosscurrent is occuring. As the price of platinum rises (and it will) the common dates and average dates will endure a certain amount of attrition in terms of numismatic quality, if not quantity as well. The Silvertownes, NW Territorial Mints, Jack Hunts, Dallas Gold & Silvers, Manfra, Tordella & Brookses, the Monexes, and Apmexes of the world will simply buy & resell the common and average dates as bullion.
So, we might have a situation in a few years where nobody really knows what the true low mintage survivor keys are. The Wondercoins of the world will probably know what's selling and what's hard to find, so eventually the pricing structure will reflect that reality, even if the numbers are not known in any concrete way.
When in doubt, punt it back to the mintages.
It's been 2 years since the original issue for the 2008-W Burnished Plats. How long before these trends impact the price? My view is that the price is already impacted by the mintages. I also think that as platinum rises, all of the factors mentioned will continue to push the 2008-W Burnished Plats higher, albeit in a slow and steady climb. These are not going to be like the ATB 5 oz coins. They will never catch fire. But they also won't hurt you. A lot of other investments will suffer when these continue to climb.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
<< As the price of platinum rises (and it will) the common dates and average dates will endure a certain amount of attrition in terms of numismatic quality, if not quantity as well. The Silvertownes, NW Territorial Mints, Jack Hunts, Dallas Gold & Silvers, Manfra, Tordella & Brookses, the Monexes, and Apmexes of the world will simply buy & resell the common and average dates as bullion. >>
A few years ago, high prices led to the melting of many Platinum Eagles, reportedly including some proofs and scarce dates.
This time it may be different. Bullion Platinum Eagles are no longer being produced, and many market makers are paying 2% to 5% premiums over melt for common dates, presumably reselling them for even higher markups. This pricing structure likely reflects investment demand.
So pricewise, Platinum Eagles are starting to behave less like 90% silver and more like Gold and Silver Eagles.
Outstanding analysis with terrific insight. I guess I need to go back and reread Erics book again. I pulled my set out over the holidays which started the whole thought process. I think I was expecting a little faster appreciation but time will tell. I'm not 16 or 116, but certainly not too old to enjoy humor Thanks for your thoughts and please continue with projections and WAGs
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up >>
I am very interested on folks' thoughts on the same question but regarding the 2008 W Plat proofs. They are solid keys. The '04s took off when they were the keys. What's up? The '08 W plat proofs seem to be way under-performing.
As 7Jaguars has pointed out, the dispersion of the '04s was probably much greater than the '08s, which ended up in the hands of many speculators such as people on this board. Therefore, there are more 08s available, whereas the 04s are actually harder to come by, sitting in 5,000 separate safe deposit boxes around the country.
The other thing is that, as jmski says, there just aren't enough plat collectors to absorb even the small numbers we saw in 06-08, be they proofs or 'W's. In fact, I think there is less interest right now than there was a couple of years ago. It could be that the 08s NEVER reach the prices of the 04s, but I'm guessing they will end up in the same range. Meanwhile, we can just hope that more people realize what an outstanding, beautiful series this is and jump in. That, of course, will probably have to wait until the price of platinum and the economy stabilize. I know that I'm a reluctant buyer under these conditions.
I certainly understand and agree with these points. As I pointed out before, MCM's buy prices are higher for the '08s Plat proofs than the '04s. I think that both are underperforming. But, as you point out, it's the demand side that's making this so. I just think that the '08s are sooooo underperforming that I am very surprised.
I sure wish that I had been more focused on the buffs and less on the plats on '08. But at least I have a small herd. Bummer.
I am very interested on folks' thoughts on the same question but regarding the 2008 W Plat proofs. They are solid keys. The '04s took off when they were the keys. What's up? The '08 W plat proofs seem to be way under-performing.
In my view, not much changes in the analysis for the 2008-W Proof Plats, other than a few of the numbers and perhaps the promotional aspects for potential 401K inclusion, which Eric touches on in his book.
Well, I'll do my analysis again. It's a slam-dunk on the mintages, no question about it. So, why aren't they on a relentless climb towards $5,000 per coin? In my opinion, there simply aren't 4,020 Proof Plat collectors out there, and there may never be 4,020 Proof Plat collectors. Until there actually are 4,020 Proof Plat collectors the series will not take off like a rocket.
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily, because there are other factors besides the number of Proof Plat collectors that matter to this series. There is the obvious tie-in to precious metals, and that's been the predominant factor most of the time since the Proof Plats first started. It is mostly investors who will most likely comprise the pool of future Proof Plat collectors. From the standpoint of financing, that's a good thing.
As Eric Jordan points out in his book, the larger group of common dates acts as an advertisement for the keys in a Modern series. There is also most certainly, some degree of promotion for Proof Plats occuring in the 401K area. Eric advises not to buy common Proof AGEs at more than 1.3X melt, and the same might also apply with the Proof Plats. The multiple might be slightly different for various reasons, but the caveat is the same.
On the other hand, the continuation of the 1 oz Proof Plats does nothing but help the price appreciation potential for all of the existing Proof Plats. A continuing series is a good thing, advertising-wise.
If the fractional Proof Plats are indeed done for good, then it stands to reason that the true collectors will start to appear and a collector base will always help advance the price potential, because the collectors will focus on the collecting rather than the constant drumbeat of new issues emanating from the Mint that tends to suck up capital quickly for a series that has a high intrinsic value metal content. The contrast is clear between then, and now. Now is better for the fractional Plats. Stop inundating collectors with expensive annual stuff, and they will show up for the party.
In every instance, once an investor (or a collector) becomes aware of the overall association between mintage scarcity and price appreciation potential, the most natural thing to do is to pursue the keys.
For an expensive series, this does take time. For the Proof Plats, which are created as collector pieces, the time will be less.
In the meantime, another crosscurrent is occuring. As the price of platinum rises (and it will) the common dates and average dates will endure a certain amount of attrition in terms of numismatic quality, if not quantity as well. The Silvertownes, NW Territorial Mints, Jack Hunts, Dallas Gold & Silvers, Manfra, Tordella & Brookses, the Monexes, and Apmexes of the world will simply buy & resell the common and average dates as bullion.
So, we might have a situation in a few years where nobody really knows what the true low mintage survivor keys are. The Wondercoins of the world will probably know what's selling and what's hard to find, so eventually the pricing structure will reflect that reality, even if the numbers are not known in any concrete way.
When in doubt, punt it back to the mintages.
It's been 2 years since the original issue for the 2008-W Proof Plats. How long before these trends impact the price? My view is that the price is already impacted by the mintages. I also think that as platinum rises, all of the factors mentioned will continue to push the 2008-W Proof Plats higher, a slow and steady climb, possibly a little quicker for the Proof Plats than for the "W"s and Uncs. These are not going to be like the ATB 5 oz coins. They will never catch fire. But they also won't hurt you. A lot of other investments will suffer when these continue to climb.
A few years ago, high prices led to the melting of many Platinum Eagles, reportedly including some proofs and scarce dates.
This time it may be different. Bullion Platinum Eagles are no longer being produced, and many market makers are paying 2% to 5% premiums over melt for common dates, presumably reselling them for even higher markups. This pricing structure likely reflects investment demand.
So pricewise, Platinum Eagles are starting to behave less like 90% silver and more like Gold and Silver Eagles.
I tend to agree that the Plats are acting less like bullion and more like a coin series. I see some differentiation already taking place amongst the various dates, no doubt based on availability.
I also agree that investment demand will be a factor. But I also think that higher bullion prices will continue to result in more degradation of the common issues, *exactly* like a few years ago. It's an inevitability when prices rise to a certain point that some holders of the Plats will find the gains better from a bullion standpoint than the potential future gains from a numismatic standpoint, and they will dump their holdings and the coins will go into the generic pile of bullion category or even scrap metal.
The slabbed ones will probably get picked back out, but some of the (uncertified) Proofs may be worth as much dead as alive. If the price is right and if the buyer is indifferent, who's to stop them from being sent off for melting and industrial consumption? The price point will dictate when each issue becomes bullion all over again.
Q: Are You Printing Money? Bernanke: Not Literally
As an aside, I too have seen the MCM buy prices for the '04 half oz plat proof @ 1200 and wonder how many have been brought out at that price - I would tend to doubt very many. Don't think I would put much stock in evaluating availability of the '04s based on their buy prices.
I wonder where the figure for purchase of plats at bullion plus 2-5% comes from. I got quotes of -5% (or 0.95 x bullion).
I love plats but fear I am near alone as a collector. I "feel" what people are saying about the metal price rise as I no longer get the one oz. which has save me the last two years of UGLY mugs as well as a few dollars...
Love that Milled British (1830-1960) Well, just Love coins, period.
I began this journey by purchasing the 02 proof set from the mint. I have more than doubled my investment just in bullion but see a limited numismatic increase due to mintage. At what point do these become a liability instead of an asset performance wise? I have my eyes on a couple of pricey coins that might out run inflation but again its a gamble Great input everyone. Thank you for thought provoking insights and fact based opinions And isn't it nice to be back on page 1?
"When the people fear their government, there is tyranny; when the government fears the people, there is liberty." Thomas Jefferson
Comments
<< <i>FINAL FINAL FIRST SPOUSE GOLD MINTAGES.
MV PROOF 6807
AH PROOF 6251
LT PROOF 5295
JT PROOF 4844
MV UNC 3826
AH UNC 3645
LT UNC 3240
JT UNC 3143 >>
Hi Eric,
Since MV is a 2008 release, and JT is a 2009 release, will JT be revised next year around this time?
Dear United States Mint Customer,
The United States Mint will be processing your subscription order for
the 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) in approximately 4
weeks. Our records indicate you have the following subscription(s):
15 Silver Proof Set(s)
The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95.
It looks like they are going to bring out the yearly sets early. I wonder if
the 2010 will go dark at that time?
<< <i>Just received this e-mail from the mint: Dear United States Mint Customer, The United States Mint will be processing your subscription order for the 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) in approximately 4 weeks. Our records indicate you have the following subscription(s): 15 Silver Proof Set(s) The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95. It looks like they are going to bring out the yearly sets early. I wonder if the 2010 will go dark at that time?
I got the same e-mail - they did the same for the eagle proof, about two months prior to release, so I guess they will be out in february.
After being away for awhile, I noticed that the 1999-W error $5.00 and $10.00 Eagles have been moving up nicely in price. I saw that a 1999-W $10.00 in PCGS-69 recently sold on e-bay for $1500.00, and others are stronger across the board as well.
Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening?
Eric?
<< <i>Hi everyone!
After being away for awhile, I noticed that the 1999-W error $5.00 and $10.00 Eagles have been moving up nicely in price. I saw that a 1999-W $10.00 in PCGS-69 recently sold on e-bay for $1500.00, and others are stronger across the board as well.
Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening?
Eric? >>
Hi David, Good to see you back in action on the boards. Did you notice the related thread running right now in the Precious Metals forum?
Link
I hear the 4-coin set is almost sold out.
<<Does anyone have any comments or thoughts on why this is happening? >>
Yes...becasue we must all have added Eric's book to our book of the month reading lists!!!
I'll either be a very rich man one day thanks to that book...or my wife will be living in a refrigerator box under the interstate!!!
<< <i>1/2 oz. AGE Proof is now SOLD OUT.
I hear the 4-coin set is almost sold out. >>
The Mint shows it as sold out
the latest mint stats show they were well under the max mintatge.
1 oz - 25,000/25,000
1/2 oz - 8,596/15,000 (now sold out)
1/4 oz - 7,226/16,000
4-coin set - 28,838/39,000 (almost sold out)
have sales been that brisk, this close to Christmas?
<< <i>The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95. >>
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?)
<< <i>its called a short strike...... >>
I guess so.
And from what I've heard, the 4-coin set is going to go off sale soon, too.
<< <i>Hi!
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?) >>
Option Three !
<< <i>its called a short strike...... >>
Did the Mint hire the Munchkins?
<< <i>Hi!
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?) >>
5. 2006-W pr70 reverse proof First Strike (minted 9,996--14% fewer than the '08W UNC)
<< <i>
<< <i>1/2 oz. AGE Proof is now SOLD OUT.
I hear the 4-coin set is almost sold out. >>
The Mint shows it as sold out
the latest mint stats show they were well under the max mintatge.
1 oz - 25,000/25,000
1/2 oz - 8,596/15,000 (now sold out)
1/4 oz - 7,226/16,000
4-coin set - 28,838/39,000 (almost sold out)
have sales been that brisk, this close to Christmas? >>
I ordered one a couple of weeks ago and it's been backordered ever since--now showing delivery near end of January. I'm guessing I probably won't receive it.
<< <i>I think you'll get it. >>
Thanks for the optimism MM! Will let you all know. Otherwise it might be Mary Todd in my future
<< <i>Hi!
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?) >>
Answer:
You want to buy a coin that has a price close to melt but is much rarer than its next rarest sibling. In other words a strong cheap key. The Only coin you show that fits that is the 2008-w gold eagle mint state. The Reverse proof mentioned by others is also a good option but its about twice melt. If you can find a nice 2008W $50 gold eagle for 1.25 times melt I would pick it up.
Eric Jordan
<< <i>Merry Christmas & Happy Hanukah and Happy new year to all you guys........
Eric Jordan >>
Thanks very much for the good wishes....same to you and yours and all on the forum.
<< <i>Hi!
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?) >>
Whichever is least expensive.
I think that the percentage premiums on scarce Gold Eagles will continue to decline as the price of gold continues to move up. If this turns out to be the case, then the most common bullion $50 Gold Eagle will outperform all of the above choices.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>
<< <i>Hi!
Need some advice.
If I were to invest in ONE Gold Eagle $50, which of the following should I choose;
1. 1986-w - First Year of issue.
2. 1991-w - Last year with Roman numerals. Most expensive according to PCGS Price Guide.
3. 2008-w Uncirculated - Lowest overall mintage (?)
4. 2008-w Proof - Lowest Proof mintage (?) >>
Whichever is least expensive.
I think that the percentage premiums on scarce Gold Eagles will continue to decline as the price of gold continues to move up. If this turns out to be the case, then the most common bullion $50 Gold Eagle will outperform all of the above choices. >>
But if gold goes lower the reverse would be true. Also, that pattern may be more aplicable for coins that have matured valuations.
<< <i>
<< <i>The 2011 United States Mint Silver Proof Set(TM) is priced at $67.95. >>
I just subscribed to this. By the time they finally issue it, I wonder what the price of silver will be per oz.? If it decreases, will they adjust the price accordingly?
But if gold goes lower the reverse would be true. Also, that pattern may be more aplicable for coins that have matured valuations.
Those are the two reasons to buy low mintage AGEs. Buffered on the downside by numismatic premium; always benefiting from a rise in the price of gold.
Merry Christmas, guys!
I knew it would happen.
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up
They're already going up slowly. I think the 1/10 oz. and 1/4 oz. will do the best, as the rising price of platinum will limit the number of people who can afford sets of the larger denominations.
If the price of platinum keeps increasing, common bullion platinum eagles may rise in value as fast or faster than the scarcer "W" issues for the next several years.
If you are 16, you should still be around to enjoy the run up. If you are 116, the odds are slightly lower.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up
I don't believe there will be a substantial difference in price between the burnished W's. All three are ultra low mintages and all WILL do very well. Time frame? The 99w is still way under performing 11 years later...I'd say continue to buy while the prices are low and look at it as a gift!
Well, I'll do my analysis. It's a slam-dunk on the mintages, no question about it. So, why aren't they on a relentless climb towards $5,000 per coin? In my opinion, there simply aren't 2,253 Plat collectors out there, and there may never be 2,253 Plat collectors. Until there actually are 2,253 Plat collectors the series will not take off like a rocket.
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily, because there are other factors besides the number of Plat collectors that matter to this series. There is the obvious tie-in to precious metals, and that's been the predominant factor most of the time since the Plats first started. It is mostly investors who will most likely comprise the pool of future Plat collectors. From the standpoint of financing, that's a good thing.
As Eric Jordan points out in his book, the larger group of common dates acts as an advertisement for the keys in a Modern series. I agree with him on that, and I'll even go another step. With respect to the Burnished "W" Uncs, the Proof Plat Series also acts as a great ambassador for the rarer "W"s. Once an investor becomes aware of the overall association between mintage scarcity and price appreciation potential, the most natural thing to do is to pursue the keys.
For an expensive series, this does take time.
In the meantime, another crosscurrent is occuring. As the price of platinum rises (and it will) the common dates and average dates will endure a certain amount of attrition in terms of numismatic quality, if not quantity as well. The Silvertownes, NW Territorial Mints, Jack Hunts, Dallas Gold & Silvers, Manfra, Tordella & Brookses, the Monexes, and Apmexes of the world will simply buy & resell the common and average dates as bullion.
So, we might have a situation in a few years where nobody really knows what the true low mintage survivor keys are. The Wondercoins of the world will probably know what's selling and what's hard to find, so eventually the pricing structure will reflect that reality, even if the numbers are not known in any concrete way.
When in doubt, punt it back to the mintages.
It's been 2 years since the original issue for the 2008-W Burnished Plats. How long before these trends impact the price? My view is that the price is already impacted by the mintages. I also think that as platinum rises, all of the factors mentioned will continue to push the 2008-W Burnished Plats higher, albeit in a slow and steady climb. These are not going to be like the ATB 5 oz coins. They will never catch fire. But they also won't hurt you. A lot of other investments will suffer when these continue to climb.
I knew it would happen.
A few years ago, high prices led to the melting of many Platinum Eagles, reportedly including some proofs and scarce dates.
This time it may be different. Bullion Platinum Eagles are no longer being produced, and many market makers are paying 2% to 5% premiums over melt for common dates, presumably reselling them for even higher markups. This pricing structure likely reflects investment demand.
So pricewise, Platinum Eagles are starting to behave less like 90% silver and more like Gold and Silver Eagles.
My Adolph A. Weinman signature
<< <i>Does anyone want to venture a guess as to when the 08w burnished plats will take off? Are we looking at 1 year 5 year 10 year or 20 year projection? Share your thoughts and rationale. I guess I am asking the question to see whether I will still be around to enjoy the run up
I am very interested on folks' thoughts on the same question but regarding the 2008 W Plat proofs. They are solid keys. The '04s took off when they were the keys. What's up? The '08 W plat proofs seem to be way under-performing.
The other thing is that, as jmski says, there just aren't enough plat collectors to absorb even the small numbers we saw in 06-08, be they proofs or 'W's. In fact, I think there is less interest right now than there was a couple of years ago. It could be that the 08s NEVER reach the prices of the 04s, but I'm guessing they will end up in the same range. Meanwhile, we can just hope that more people realize what an outstanding, beautiful series this is and jump in. That, of course, will probably have to wait until the price of platinum and the economy stabilize. I know that I'm a reluctant buyer under these conditions.
I sure wish that I had been more focused on the buffs and less on the plats on '08. But at least I have a small herd. Bummer.
In my view, not much changes in the analysis for the 2008-W Proof Plats, other than a few of the numbers and perhaps the promotional aspects for potential 401K inclusion, which Eric touches on in his book.
Well, I'll do my analysis again. It's a slam-dunk on the mintages, no question about it. So, why aren't they on a relentless climb towards $5,000 per coin? In my opinion, there simply aren't 4,020 Proof Plat collectors out there, and there may never be 4,020 Proof Plat collectors. Until there actually are 4,020 Proof Plat collectors the series will not take off like a rocket.
Is that a bad thing? Not necessarily, because there are other factors besides the number of Proof Plat collectors that matter to this series. There is the obvious tie-in to precious metals, and that's been the predominant factor most of the time since the Proof Plats first started. It is mostly investors who will most likely comprise the pool of future Proof Plat collectors. From the standpoint of financing, that's a good thing.
As Eric Jordan points out in his book, the larger group of common dates acts as an advertisement for the keys in a Modern series. There is also most certainly, some degree of promotion for Proof Plats occuring in the 401K area. Eric advises not to buy common Proof AGEs at more than 1.3X melt, and the same might also apply with the Proof Plats. The multiple might be slightly different for various reasons, but the caveat is the same.
On the other hand, the continuation of the 1 oz Proof Plats does nothing but help the price appreciation potential for all of the existing Proof Plats. A continuing series is a good thing, advertising-wise.
If the fractional Proof Plats are indeed done for good, then it stands to reason that the true collectors will start to appear and a collector base will always help advance the price potential, because the collectors will focus on the collecting rather than the constant drumbeat of new issues emanating from the Mint that tends to suck up capital quickly for a series that has a high intrinsic value metal content. The contrast is clear between then, and now. Now is better for the fractional Plats. Stop inundating collectors with expensive annual stuff, and they will show up for the party.
In every instance, once an investor (or a collector) becomes aware of the overall association between mintage scarcity and price appreciation potential, the most natural thing to do is to pursue the keys.
For an expensive series, this does take time. For the Proof Plats, which are created as collector pieces, the time will be less.
In the meantime, another crosscurrent is occuring. As the price of platinum rises (and it will) the common dates and average dates will endure a certain amount of attrition in terms of numismatic quality, if not quantity as well. The Silvertownes, NW Territorial Mints, Jack Hunts, Dallas Gold & Silvers, Manfra, Tordella & Brookses, the Monexes, and Apmexes of the world will simply buy & resell the common and average dates as bullion.
So, we might have a situation in a few years where nobody really knows what the true low mintage survivor keys are. The Wondercoins of the world will probably know what's selling and what's hard to find, so eventually the pricing structure will reflect that reality, even if the numbers are not known in any concrete way.
When in doubt, punt it back to the mintages.
It's been 2 years since the original issue for the 2008-W Proof Plats. How long before these trends impact the price? My view is that the price is already impacted by the mintages. I also think that as platinum rises, all of the factors mentioned will continue to push the 2008-W Proof Plats higher, a slow and steady climb, possibly a little quicker for the Proof Plats than for the "W"s and Uncs. These are not going to be like the ATB 5 oz coins. They will never catch fire. But they also won't hurt you. A lot of other investments will suffer when these continue to climb.
A few years ago, high prices led to the melting of many Platinum Eagles, reportedly including some proofs and scarce dates.
This time it may be different. Bullion Platinum Eagles are no longer being produced, and many market makers are paying 2% to 5% premiums over melt for common dates, presumably reselling them for even higher markups. This pricing structure likely reflects investment demand.
So pricewise, Platinum Eagles are starting to behave less like 90% silver and more like Gold and Silver Eagles.
I tend to agree that the Plats are acting less like bullion and more like a coin series. I see some differentiation already taking place amongst the various dates, no doubt based on availability.
I also agree that investment demand will be a factor. But I also think that higher bullion prices will continue to result in more degradation of the common issues, *exactly* like a few years ago. It's an inevitability when prices rise to a certain point that some holders of the Plats will find the gains better from a bullion standpoint than the potential future gains from a numismatic standpoint, and they will dump their holdings and the coins will go into the generic pile of bullion category or even scrap metal.
The slabbed ones will probably get picked back out, but some of the (uncertified) Proofs may be worth as much dead as alive. If the price is right and if the buyer is indifferent, who's to stop them from being sent off for melting and industrial consumption? The price point will dictate when each issue becomes bullion all over again.
I knew it would happen.
As an aside, I too have seen the MCM buy prices for the '04 half oz plat proof @ 1200 and wonder how many have been brought out at that price - I would tend to doubt very many. Don't think I would put much stock in evaluating availability of the '04s based on their buy prices.
I wonder where the figure for purchase of plats at bullion plus 2-5% comes from. I got quotes of -5% (or 0.95 x bullion).
I love plats but fear I am near alone as a collector. I "feel" what people are saying about the metal price rise as I no longer get the one oz. which has save me the last two years of UGLY mugs as well as a few dollars...
Well, just Love coins, period.
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<< <i>What is my chance of getting these??
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They may be slow but I don't think that slow.