Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

baddogss · September 2, 2010 2:26AM

Got mine in ... order number 35237xxx, and my order status just went from 'suspended' to 'on hold'
Their site was pretty fast today.

botanist · September 2, 2010 11:00AM

The Buchanan gold spouse coins might already be nearly sold out since over 3500 order numbers were recorded this afternoon at the US mint. Suppose we guess that 3000 of those order numbers were for these coins, and that the average number of Buchanans per order was 5 (and that sounds reasonable to me, because one single order was said to have been 800, and there were other reports of very large orders), the tally would be 3000 x 5 = 15,000 which is the total authorized mintage.

Goldbully · September 2, 2010 11:08AM

Just a note for those buying this issue....
My Jefferson Liberty Proof cost $430 and the Unc was $410!!

GAT · September 2, 2010 11:39AM

<< Just a note for those buying this issue....
My Jefferson Liberty Proof cost $430 and the Unc was $410!!

>>

Yes they did, and I still have two sets of them, one set in an unopened first strike eligible Mint box.

Raufus · September 2, 2010 12:07PM

I placed two separate Buc. Lib. orders each for one proof and one unc. at 1:30 and 1:31 (as fast as I could place them one after the next). There were 12 orders between them in one minutes time.

The cancel boxes are still there. Will decide tomorrow whether to cancel an order.

Raufus · September 2, 2010 12:11PM

<< Not a chance at a sellout.

I think that the only real appeal to buying this coin would be to those who intend to build the 4 coin (or 8 coin) Liberty gold sets. Based on the mintages of the Jackson and Van Buren coins less than 12,000 such sets are possible...

Jackson Unc @ 4754
Jackson Proof @ 7806

Van Buren Unc @ 4334
Van Buren Proof @ 7515

A mintage cap of 15,000 is more than enough to fill the need of anyone who will attempt the Liberty sub-set and I can't imagine too many others who will demand this coin on it's own. I'll probably order right away to avoid getting some of the reject coins returned by the greedy flippers going for 70s, but I expect to be able to buy these next summer if I want to. >>

Only 4334 eight coin sets possible!!

dtkk49a · September 3, 2010 1:37AM

I predict that they will not sell out. Previous Liberty issues did not hit the 15,000 mark. I would prefer the mintage to be much less than 10K but I doubt it.

Total Mintage : 4334

MsMorrisine · September 3, 2010 1:45AM

<< I predict that they will not sell out. Previous Liberty issues did not hit the 15,000 mark. I would prefer the mintage to be much less than 10K but I doubt it.

Total Mintage : 4334 >>

I hate to say it, but I like the execution of that one better than this newest one.

Something just seems off on the newest one. I can't say what.

MsMorrisine · September 3, 2010 1:53AM

and they didn't even get the eagle close!

Manorcourtman · September 3, 2010 2:13AM

no sellout imho. To pricey and not attractive compared to the others.

Overdate · September 3, 2010 2:50AM

<< 

<< Not a chance at a sellout.

I think that the only real appeal to buying this coin would be to those who intend to build the 4 coin (or 8 coin) Liberty gold sets. Based on the mintages of the Jackson and Van Buren coins less than 12,000 such sets are possible...

Jackson Unc @ 4754
Jackson Proof @ 7806

Van Buren Unc @ 4334
Van Buren Proof @ 7515

A mintage cap of 15,000 is more than enough to fill the need of anyone who will attempt the Liberty sub-set and I can't imagine too many others who will demand this coin on it's own. I'll probably order right away to avoid getting some of the reject coins returned by the greedy flippers going for 70s, but I expect to be able to buy these next summer if I want to. >>

Only 4334 eight coin sets possible!! >>

I saw revised (lower) numbers posted on another thread::

Jackson Unc @ 4609
Jackson Proof @ 7684

Van Buren Unc @ 4191
Van Buren Proof @ 7364

JohnMaben · September 3, 2010 12:07PM

I've learned to try not to make predictions even though it's fun, mainly because I hate being wrong but..... I think the holiday weekend could really mess things up at the U.S. Mint with regard to the monitoring of sales vs supply on this issue. I think that come Tuesday the mint will realize they are oversold, unless they have limits set via automation which for some reason (?) I highly doubt. I know many of you think this one is weeks from a sell out or may not sell out at all. We'll see..... If I am wrong it won't be the first time....
John

HalfStrike · September 3, 2010 4:09PM

It looks like the short struck chances for this Buchanan Liberty are between slim and none now, they still show it as in stock at this point.

lcoopie · September 3, 2010 11:18PM

why have the coin at all,
no spouse, no coin
It's supposed to be a first spouse coin

and is his name even on it?

very strange to me.

and wasn't anything in his presidency notable except for
"The reverse depicts President Buchanan as a young man working as a bookkeeper in his family’s small country store" ????

myth · September 4, 2010 12:09AM

cancel box gone....

illini420 · September 4, 2010 4:23AM

<< 

and wasn't anything in his presidency notable except for
"The reverse depicts President Buchanan as a young man working as a bookkeeper in his family’s small country store" ???? >>

Well the law that was passed says they make a Liberty coin for those presidents who didn't have a first spouse... except for Chester Arthur who will have Alice Paul on the coin, grrrr.

And to say that is all Buchanan is noted for probably isn't fair. I mean the reverse of the Jefferson Liberty coin has his grave... is the only thing that Jefferson is known for is his death??? Not quite.

LanLord · September 4, 2010 4:34AM

I wonder how many multi-coin orders were expecting a short run on these things and will cancel or return?

That could make things interesting. Just to stir things up!

oreville · September 4, 2010 5:04AM

How much are the Jefferson $10 proof and mint going for these days?

MsMorrisine · September 4, 2010 5:12AM

from the mint, they are $779 and $766

not sure about price increases for next week.... it's only two days, but the average fix isn't high enough.

Coinsponge · September 4, 2010 5:39AM

<< 

<< 

<< Not a chance at a sellout.

I think that the only real appeal to buying this coin would be to those who intend to build the 4 coin (or 8 coin) Liberty gold sets. Based on the mintages of the Jackson and Van Buren coins less than 12,000 such sets are possible...

Jackson Unc @ 4754
Jackson Proof @ 7806

Van Buren Unc @ 4334
Van Buren Proof @ 7515

A mintage cap of 15,000 is more than enough to fill the need of anyone who will attempt the Liberty sub-set and I can't imagine too many others who will demand this coin on it's own. I'll probably order right away to avoid getting some of the reject coins returned by the greedy flippers going for 70s, but I expect to be able to buy these next summer if I want to. >>

Only 4334 eight coin sets possible!! >>

I saw revised (lower) numbers posted on another thread::

Jackson Unc @ 4609
Jackson Proof @ 7684

Van Buren Unc @ 4191
Van Buren Proof @ 7364 >>

Anyone know if PCGS is game for the sets? I would think so but when I called they would not give me an answer. I would like to get a 70 f.s. set together. That would be a great one to tuck away.

MasterGuns · September 4, 2010 5:51AM

I doubt PCGS would slab a subset of the Liberty spoues. Where would they begin? Sure they did the 20th anniversary ASE, but we're talking 8 coins over a 3 year period. And if a person ever decided to sell a slabbed 8-coin set, they may be hard pressed to do so. Just my $80 worth (have the complete subset)

Ray

MasterGuns · September 4, 2010 5:53AM

<< How much are the Jefferson $10 proof and mint going for these days? >>

PCGS MS and PR 69's are $800/$825

Coinsponge · September 4, 2010 5:59AM

<< I doubt PCGS would slab a subset of the Liberty spoues. Where would they begin? Sure they did the 20th anniversary ASE, but we're talking 8 coins over a 3 year period. And if a person ever decided to sell a slabbed 8-coin set, they may be hard pressed to do so. Just my $80 worth (have the complete subset)

Ray >>

I was thinking a 4 coin set. MS or Proof. Seems that would be less cumbersom. In the old days I don't think they would but seems lately they are doing more to improve presentation.

Overdate · September 4, 2010 12:42PM

<< How much are the Jefferson $10 proof and mint going for these days? >>

I see several on eBay in the low $700's.

2manycoins2fewfunds · September 4, 2010 1:01PM

A lot of this speculation rests on assumption there are 4,000-5,000 people who want to buy a disjointed 4 coin subset of a series for a $3,000-$4,000+ investment.

2x numbers and price if you consider MS and PR.

That may or may not prove to be a valid assumption.

If there is one thing these boards and last few years have taught me it is that demand trumps mintage.

UHR - 20th Anniversary ASEs - Buffalo Commemorative Silver Dollar............all very high mintages and higher demand.

Various MS and PR platinums.............generally far low mintages and somewhat similarly low demand.

The spouses and liberty subset..............we'll see.

botanist · September 4, 2010 1:14PM

Reverting to the sell-out topic, my own uneducated guess is that if the spot price of gold is over 1250 on Monday morning Sept. 6th in London, where of course it isn't a holiday and the markets will be open, the Buchanan will sell out here in the U.S. before the mint reopens for business on Tuesday. The coins may even sell out over the weekend before London opens, and we may not be privy to that information if (as seems to be the case) the mint's website is unattended and not sensitive to sales figures vs. remaining inventory.

Coinsponge · September 4, 2010 1:22PM

<< A lot of this speculation rests on assumption there are 4,000-5,000 people who want to buy a disjointed 4 coin subset of a series for a $3,000-$4,000+ investment.

2x numbers and price if you consider MS and PR.

That may or may not prove to be a valid assumption.

If there is one thing these boards and last few years have taught me it is that demand trumps mintage.

UHR - 20th Anniversary ASEs - Buffalo Commemorative Silver Dollar............all very high mintages and higher demand.

Various MS and PR platinums.............generally far low mintages and somewhat similarly low demand.

The spouses and liberty subset..............we'll see. >>

Demand is key for sure but low mintage is the other very important part of the equation and may have an influence on the former as knowledge gets published.

7over8 · September 4, 2010 2:56PM

some of you are sure singing the tune of the fat lady....

but you fail to realize she hasnt opened her mouth yet.....

you have no idea of what was sold, and even how the USM is handling the ever so important "even distribution" of these across the collector base.

may I remind some of you that the USM - as they say "reserves the right" to limit quantities to ensure a fair distribution of product....

and it HAS happened before, on a product with no householding limits, where it WAS limited after product orders were taken.

May I also remind the crowd about sales taken for non-existant coins....only to find out later that the mintages were super low.

Need I say more?

Wait until more info is available, then form an opinion - otherwise, you know what they say about opinions.....as common as <censored> and everyone has one.

CoinMaster1229 · September 4, 2010 3:26PM

<< 

<< 

Well the law that was passed says they make a Liberty coin for those presidents who didn't have a first spouse... except for Chester Arthur who will have Alice Paul on the coin, grrrr.

Who is Alice Paul?

Overdate · September 4, 2010 4:04PM

<< The coins may even sell out over the weekend before London opens, and we may not be privy to that information if (as seems to be the case) the mint's website is unattended and not sensitive to sales figures vs. remaining inventory. >>

Anyone want to test this theory by ordering 20,000?

Overdate · September 4, 2010 4:15PM

<< Demand is key for sure but low mintage is the other very important part of the equation and may have an influence on the former as knowledge gets published. >>

I remember when a 1950-D nickel (2.6 million) was considered "low mintage".

At the height of the mania in 1964, a circulated 1950-D nickel was worth as much as a circulated Liberty $5 gold, and two uncirculated 1950-D nickels were worth as much as an uncirculated St. Gaudens $20 gold!

Times have changed somewhat.

Akbeez · September 5, 2010 3:55AM

I'm not sure I buy the premise that the Mint has no one managing/monitoring sales over the weekend -- and they would most certainly have sales limits programming into their sales software. This is basic stuff. The idea of oversales seems very unlikely outside of human error.

A shortstrike of this issue seems rather remote at this time.

MsMorrisine · September 5, 2010 4:05AM

<< 

<< 

Well the law that was passed says they make a Liberty coin for those presidents who didn't have a first spouse... except for Chester Arthur who will have Alice Paul on the coin, grrrr. >>

Who is Alice Paul? >>

worked for women's voting rights. The honor is written into the law, so it's going to happen.

illini420 · September 5, 2010 5:03AM

<< 

<< 

<< 

Well the law that was passed says they make a Liberty coin for those presidents who didn't have a first spouse... except for Chester Arthur who will have Alice Paul on the coin, grrrr. >>

Who is Alice Paul? >>

worked for women's voting rights. The honor is written into the law, so it's going to happen. >>

The Alice Paul coin isn't scheduled until 2012... so there is still time to write your Congressman to have the law amended to require a 5th Liberty design. The Alice Paul coin should be a separate commemorative coin if Congress feels she is worthy of such honor.

pf70collector · September 5, 2010 8:00AM

What if they are short struck. Do you think the mint made all 15K. Not likely. But if they do receive orders beyond what they struck, do they have the extra planchets already. Maybe they do and will take the planchets from the future spouses that haven't been struck to strike the last liberty. Who knows. Its all speculation.

7over8 · September 5, 2010 8:16AM

pf70collector

no one really knows anything at this point. sales numbers early next week may indicate where we are - but then again they did not when it came to most of the Buffalo W Golds and the Unc W Plats in 08.

i would never discount a short strike. or anything else for that matter. wait for more information.

Coinsponge · September 6, 2010 1:04AM

<< What if they are short struck. Do you think the mint made all 15K. Not likely. But if they do receive orders beyond what they struck, do they have the extra planchets already. Maybe they do and will take the planchets from the future spouses that haven't been struck to strike the last liberty. Who knows. Its all speculation. >>

I am sure they have all the planchets for each spouse sorted out and waiting there for the dies to be made. So now maybe maybe Mary Lincoln will be short struck because they are steeling her planchets.

Only the shadow knows.

I still do not know why my theory of small batch production to demand is resisted. Makes sense to me. Seems the Mint could easily have 7500 blanks of MS and Proof available for each Spouse sale. They know they are going to use them in 3 months if not now. To me the only one that might be short struck would be the last one. That might be the Hillary one of Bill doesn't watch out for her frying pan.

pf70collector · September 6, 2010 2:52AM

Well they are now producing the 2010 AGE Proofs so maybe they have the planchets for the last Liberty.

Coinsponge · September 6, 2010 2:55AM

<< Well they are now producing the 2010 AGE Proofs so maybe they have the planchets for the last Liberty. >>

I think so but remember the AGE's are 90% gold and Spouses are 99.9%. You could not interchange them.

tincup · September 6, 2010 3:16AM

We keep trying to 'predict' what is taking place at the US Mint in regards to planchets available, the number struck, etc. But time and time again the US Mint has proven that it is unpredictable.... and can leave you without a desirable coin if you wait too long. The way I see it, this last Liberty coin is a no brainer. At worst, it will still be less mintage than the Jefferson Liberty. If a person does not score a home run with it, it should at least hold its premium. Just my thoughts....

ericj96 · September 7, 2010 6:58AM

3,641 PROOF
2,486 MS
AS OF CLOSE OF BUSINESS 9/5/2010.

SOLD AS MANY BUCH LIBS AS THE OTHER FS ISSUES HAVE IN 6-9 MONTHS IN 3 DAYS! BUT WAY SHORT OF 7,500 PROOF AND 4000 MS COINS. SO WE WILL HAVE TO HAVE PATIENCE. OH NO THERE'S THAT WORD AND IT JUST KILLS US.

PATIENCE!

HalfStrike · September 7, 2010 7:03AM

If the mint is sitting on another 8,800 unsold Buchanan Liberty coins ready to be shipped they must be fuming. I thought these coins were jinxed....

mbogoman · September 7, 2010 7:34AM

Well, they're on their way. My 12:01 order shipped today with scheduled arrival tomorrow...

Placid · September 7, 2010 9:21AM

<< Well, they're on their way. My 12:01 order shipped today with scheduled arrival tomorrow... >>

Thanks for the info. My 12:01 still has not shipped.

7over8 · September 7, 2010 9:58AM

<< It looks like the short struck chances for this Buchanan Liberty are between slim and none now, they still show it as in stock at this point. >>

A little egg on the face there Half? The initial sales numbers are small - maybe a small egg

I guess the short struck theory is still in play...........the theory is that these are struck to anticipated demand - and that number is not 15,000 combined.

GAT · September 7, 2010 11:53AM

No matter what the mintage turns out to be all purchasers will end up with a classic design that few could afford to purchase the original of in PF/MS 69 or 70. Are there 69/70s of the original design? I don't know, but doubt it.,

botanist · September 7, 2010 12:14PM

My order which went through at 12:03 PM Sept. 2nd opening day was marked as shipped tonight Sept. 7th in an email I received that was time-marked 10 PM. As for my guesses this would sell out all 15000 pieces fairly quickly, I'm less than 9000 off, which is pretty darn close.

HalfStrike · September 7, 2010 1:24PM

7/8 so much for the first day sell out or even first week sell out, that little egg is on your face too, huh?

PS No wonder the mint website was so fast.

7over8 · September 7, 2010 4:09PM

Half

You made the comment quoted, not me!!!!

No egg here......

So they hired the right tech support and fixed the pipes........now we can actually all be in there ordering without drag! Yeah.

Anticipated demand is key. Not maximum mintage. They strike in advance to anticipated demand. With Proof Gold Eagles and maybe Silvers on the way, they have no interest or time in firing up the presses for more. It is what it is - and it's based on past sales, meaning it is not going to be 15k.

Akbeez · September 7, 2010 4:39PM

Wagers, anyone? .........(is there a forum for this?)

Perhaps we need a "Battle of the Buch's" thread? And in the right corner: ...

Ah, it's all good coin-talk. All on topic. Highly relevant. And entertaining.

Sell Out Prediction for Buchanan's Liberty???

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