@sellitstore said:
Simply put, lower priced entry material is strong while much of the better stuff isn't.
That's where the newcomers armed with Covid $$$ struck.
That was when sports cards, NFTs, and generic currency/coins were flying in 2020-21. Greensheet had a front-page article talking about how the lower-quality Large Denomination $500 and $1,000 bills had soared as newbies flocked there, but not going after the higher-quality bills as they cost too much.
@BillJones said:
The trouble with coins like Franklin Half Dollars is that they were saved in quantity. There are large numbers of >them in Mint State. That gives promoters many opportunities to push them as “investments.” They can’t do that with >many earlier coins because they don’t exist in numbers that support a marketing program. If you buy when the >promotion is in full string, you will end up losing money. These things go in cycles. There was a similar situation circa >1989. I image that you bought sometime later than that.
With Hummels, you are talking a specific niche that of course was never an "investment" but just a piece of art that you should have loved and if anything would be called a "speculation" if you bought them in bulk to appreciate.
Beanie-Babies comes to mind. When items are solely dependent on someone else buying.....when they throw off no cash flows (dividends or interest)....when there is no floor to the underlying item or coin.....that's when you see prices collapse.
At least with PM-related coins -- Saints, Morgans, etc. -- you have a floor with the underlying metal content.
Yup. Your 1916-D dime is always worth silver content.
@BillJones said:
The trouble with coins like Franklin Half Dollars is that they were saved in quantity. There are large numbers of >them in Mint State. That gives promoters many opportunities to push them as “investments.” They can’t do that with >many earlier coins because they don’t exist in numbers that support a marketing program. If you buy when the >promotion is in full string, you will end up losing money. These things go in cycles. There was a similar situation circa >1989. I image that you bought sometime later than that.
With Hummels, you are talking a specific niche that of course was never an "investment" but just a piece of art that you should have loved and if anything would be called a "speculation" if you bought them in bulk to appreciate.
Beanie-Babies comes to mind. When items are solely dependent on someone else buying.....when they throw off no cash flows (dividends or interest)....when there is no floor to the underlying item or coin.....that's when you see prices collapse.
At least with PM-related coins -- Saints, Morgans, etc. -- you have a floor with the underlying metal content.
Yup. Your 1916-D dime is always worth silver content.
You beat me to the punch. Not a very comforting thought. I’ll be first in line to buy an 1804 dollar when they’re selling for melt.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
@BillJones said:
The trouble with coins like Franklin Half Dollars is that they were saved in quantity. There are large numbers of >them in Mint State. That gives promoters many opportunities to push them as “investments.” They can’t do that with >many earlier coins because they don’t exist in numbers that support a marketing program. If you buy when the >promotion is in full string, you will end up losing money. These things go in cycles. There was a similar situation circa >1989. I image that you bought sometime later than that.
With Hummels, you are talking a specific niche that of course was never an "investment" but just a piece of art that you should have loved and if anything would be called a "speculation" if you bought them in bulk to appreciate.
Beanie-Babies comes to mind. When items are solely dependent on someone else buying.....when they throw off no cash flows (dividends or interest)....when there is no floor to the underlying item or coin.....that's when you see prices collapse.
At least with PM-related coins -- Saints, Morgans, etc. -- you have a floor with the underlying metal content.
Yup. Your 1916-D dime is always worth silver content.
You beat me to the punch. Not a very comforting thought. I’ll be first in line to buy an 1804 dollar when they’re selling for melt.
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
@seatedlib3991 said:
Having said that though, i understand the point of view that buying coins is in my (and many other peoples) view >NOT a good investment. Coins have to be held a substantial time to have a chance at profit (usually). there is no >interest earned, often times the value the coin increases is slight considering the amount of time held.
Without dividends or interest, coins and other tangible assets simply do not have the ability to match stocks or even bonds over the long haul. Yes, if you were LUCKY and bought lots of coins before the big runup in gold and silver of the 1970's you did fantastic. Or if you bought at recent PM lows in 1998-2000 or 2016-19. You'd be way ahead of the game.
But even for Trophy Coins...where the buyers are super-rich and probably price doesn't matter....even the annualized returns on 95% or more of them are probably low single-digits. The 1933 Double Eagle and lots of other coins...I've worked out the returns when they change hands...I think 2 coins I can recall that broke the double-digit (>10%) annual return threshold. One of them was the Bass Proof 1850 Double Eagle...he got it for $2,000 in 1970 so he beat the runup in high-end numismatics and the rise in gold and thus, with such a low starting point, when the coin got sold a few years ago it worked out to about 12% a year as I recall.
Jay Pittman made smart buys, caught the numismatic and PM up-cycles, and also made a killing (or his family and estate did ). But he's like the daytrader or options player who makes consistent $$$ -- very very rare.
Even my gold coins, I mentally write them down to nothing. That way, if future generations like GenZ don't care for Double Eagles, neither I nor my inheritors will be disappointed. Maybe 1 ounce of gold will be worth $5,000 or $2,500 and I'll salvage some $$$ that way. Or maybe gold is going back to $500 if AI programs can manufacture it synthetically (I think there was a "Twilight Zone" episode about that ).
Again...unless you are a dealer or someone who spends 6-10 hours a day on this stuff or is someone who is very very lucky...don't consider numismatic or even PM coins to be "investments." Maybe they will be. But tangible assets are highly volatile, have long periods of dead money, and can decline with no income or dividend offset to grab new units at lower prices.
@safari_dude said:
Heritage auction going on now, and many of the coins are exceeding the PCGS price guide……and with buyer’s fee are going way over.
That's been my experience for most stuff on HA going back years. At least using their HA Estimated Price (which I figure is close to or above the PCGS Price Guide).
@safari_dude said:
Heritage auction going on now, and many of the coins are exceeding the PCGS price guide……and with buyer’s fee are going way over.
That's been my experience for most stuff on HA going back years. At least using their HA Estimated Price (which I figure is close to or above the PCGS Price Guide).
What "HA Estimated Price" are you speaking of? I'm unaware of any such pricing information being included in U.S. coin lot listings - at least for the past several years.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
As a fellow finance guy, I always appreciate your insight and viewpoint. It is spot on.
Although I will say, I can financially afford if my collection value goes to zero, it would be a problem for me emotionally. I would be sad because it means the death of my favorite hobby!
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
Good thing this is a U.S. Coins Forum so I can read/talk about U.S. Coins. Oh wait, which forum is this?
Seated Half Society member #38 "Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
The idea that coins are not an investment is laughable. It's said because it a line that needs to be toe'd for certain people... but for someone to tell me that buying a 1.8 Million dollar 1894-s Barber dime is because someone was nostalgic about Ice Cream Trucks is a load of poo.
Why can't I get loans vs my collection? Why can I insure it?
Please stop with the coins are not investments.
This is not a indication of are they a good or bad investment... but they are still an investment.
I collect glass... Blown glass from the Appalachian area... I have spent strong money on pieces but these are not a holder of value... these are not investments. These are pretty things that make me happy. Are some pieces rare? Very but I know that the money I spent there is most likely gone. C'est la vie.
Is the market softening? Sort of..
If you have non registry and non PQ(CAC approved) coins there is a good chance your area is soft. If you own top line registry coins or CAC approved premium coins then your market is still going strong.
I have built multiple large collections in my life and the one thing ring true from early 2k to now quality has demand.
I appreciate the finance guys telling us to use better investment vehicles for wealth preservation and wealth building. I get it. Index funds yoy pay 17% or better and few things get you there year over year. But claiming rare coins is kot an investment is disingenuous.
@MFeld said:
What "HA Estimated Price" are you speaking of? I'm unaware of any such pricing information being included in U.S. >coin lot listings - at least for the past several years.
Mark, I see estimated prices at the end of the description for currency on all the stuff. I thought I had seen it with coins, too, but maybe I was wrong. But I see it on currency right now with the auction LIVE as I type this:
Lot 21064
Fr. 34 $1 1880 Legal Tender PMG Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ. Exceptionally well margined, beautifully bright and with good original paper surfaces. Fr. 34's and 35's used to be seen with some frequency in top grade, but the active market of recent years has dried up the availability. Finding a piece as nice as this has become a challenge. Estimate: $2,000 - up
Grade: Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ
Previous Prices from Heritage
@Catbert said:
Good thing this is a U.S. Coins Forum so I can read/talk about U.S. Coins. Oh wait, which forum is this?
Because we were seguing into "coins as an investment" I thought it was relevant. Don't want anybody visiting here to think this is an easy way to make riches. That's all.
@MFeld said:
What "HA Estimated Price" are you speaking of? I'm unaware of any such pricing information being included in U.S. >coin lot listings - at least for the past several years.
Mark, I see estimated prices at the end of the description for currency on all the stuff. I thought I had seen it with coins, too, but maybe I was wrong. But I see it on currency right now with the auction LIVE as I type this:
Lot 21064
Fr. 34 $1 1880 Legal Tender PMG Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ. Exceptionally well margined, beautifully bright and with good original paper surfaces. Fr. 34's and 35's used to be seen with some frequency in top grade, but the active market of recent years has dried up the availability. Finding a piece as nice as this has become a challenge. Estimate: $2,000 - up
Grade: Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ
Previous Prices from Heritage
I thought we were talking about the rare coin market. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@MFeld said:
What "HA Estimated Price" are you speaking of? I'm unaware of any such pricing information being included in U.S. >coin lot listings - at least for the past several years.
Mark, I see estimated prices at the end of the description for currency on all the stuff. I thought I had seen it with coins, too, but maybe I was wrong. But I see it on currency right now with the auction LIVE as I type this:
Lot 21064
Fr. 34 $1 1880 Legal Tender PMG Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ. Exceptionally well margined, beautifully bright and with good original paper surfaces. Fr. 34's and 35's used to be seen with some frequency in top grade, but the active market of recent years has dried up the availability. Finding a piece as nice as this has become a challenge. Estimate: $2,000 - up
Grade: Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ
Previous Prices from Heritage
Most of the coin listings had the PCGS price guide as well as pop figures shown with each auction.
@safari_dude said:
Most of the coin listings had the PCGS price guide as well as pop figures shown with each auction.
I thought so....but actually the last few weeks/months I've spent more time watching the Currency Auctions than Coin Auctions and it kind of blurred in my mind as to if I had seen the estimate for both types. Thanks !!
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
Strongly disagree, my thoughts are more in line with @Relaxn. (Though I agree with pretty much everything else, just that one proclamation).
If you invest in something, it's an investment, period. That doesn't mean it's a good investment, but performance isn't a qualifier of being an investment.
In fact, I think the stigma of "Coins are never investments" is what deters growth in the younger generations, which everyone always scratches their head about. Why do the younger people take an interest in crypto, NFTs, sports cards, or anything these days? I don't see an issue in saying that coins could be an investment, as long as the message is delivered honestly and expectations are realistic. I think common date saints in gem are fantastic way to introduce someone to numismatics. History, Art, and Economics all rolled into one, just a few hundred bucks over melt. While they might not perform like the S&P, I think the downside is minimal and it's a much better store of value than holding cash. Diversification is key, as always. Get people started with something like that, and perhaps they stick around and become real collectors.
@GoldFinger1969 said:\ But even for Trophy Coins...where the buyers are super-rich and probably price doesn't matter....even the annualized returns on 95% or more of them are probably low single-digits. The 1933 Double Eagle and lots of other coins...I've worked out the returns when they change hands...I think 2 coins I can recall that broke the double-digit (>10%) annual return threshold. One of them was the Bass Proof 1850 Double Eagle...he got it for $2,000 in 1970 so he beat the runup in high-end numismatics and the rise in gold and thus, with such a low starting point, when the coin got sold a few years ago it worked out to about 12% a year as I recall.
Have you looked at some of the pioneer issues? I suspect you'll find some more to add to that list.
BTW...as for the OP.....I think the sectors that had the Covid $$$ have definitely declined and/or flatlined...but nothing like those other Covid bubbles like NFTs (when was the last time you saw a TV or print article on THOSE ?? ).
Gold continues to do very well. We're almost at an ATH again. There's a persistent bid under the metal as supply from mines and CB's is well-contained which means demand is moving the price up. I've long believed in $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035. The former is probably way too low and the latter, which was just a coin-flip or less when I made it, is now looking more and more possible/probable.
My profitable hobby investments have taught me patience with my other investments. Hobby investments are not "bought today and sold tomorrow." And timing is everything.
If one considers a hobby investment portfolio as a small part of one's total investment portfolio, it can be an enjoyable and rewarding distraction when other investments are not doing well.
I think the market has gotten soft. I’ve taken a small bath on several coins recently that I needed to sell. Not too bad, thankfully, given everything. But more recent purchases are doing poorly on resale. I’ve got a $1 pioneer that I’m hoping sells at least at what I paid for it a couple of years ago. It does feel like buying on a down slope right now so I’ve put purchases on hold except for the one or two things I’m kind of aiming for that are <$50 each anyway.
In looking at my current outlook this morning: Agree the market both shows, online weak. Expense of food, cars, housing been increasing. Plus GTA 6 coming out in March I have heard. Many in coin club in GTA5 online wanting to get PS 5 which is required for GTA6 (if not already upgraded).
Many coming in the bourse room doing good even have $300 to spend. Yes there are rich collectors but they can be very fussy or focused on one area what they are buying. One guy a big currency buyer his visit to my table amounted to more than everything else sold at shows there.
However I have been getting some good buys both coins and currency. Also increasing my PCGS and CACG inventory.
@Relaxn said:
The idea that coins are not an investment is laughable. It's said because it a line that needs to be toe'd for certain people... but for someone to tell me that buying a 1.8 Million dollar 1894-s Barber dime is because someone was nostalgic about Ice Cream Trucks is a load of poo.
Why can't I get loans vs my collection? Why can I insure it?
Please stop with the coins are not investments.
This is not a indication of are they a good or bad investment... but they are still an investment.
I collect glass... Blown glass from the Appalachian area... I have spent strong money on pieces but these are not a holder of value... these are not investments. These are pretty things that make me happy. Are some pieces rare? Very but I know that the money I spent there is most likely gone. C'est la vie.
Is the market softening? Sort of..
If you have non registry and non PQ(CAC approved) coins there is a good chance your area is soft. If you own top line registry coins or CAC approved premium coins then your market is still going strong.
I have built multiple large collections in my life and the one thing ring true from early 2k to now quality has demand.
I appreciate the finance guys telling us to use better investment vehicles for wealth preservation and wealth building. I get it. Index funds yoy pay 17% or better and few things get you there year over year. But claiming rare coins is kot an investment is disingenuous.
My 2 cents from my corner...
J
Ok. Coins are absolutely horrible investments. Feel better?
Coins are what you make them. I find a good retail, strong margin area and go with it. On the other side of the ball I work my angle buying material right.
@FlyingAl said:
Ha. I wish.
I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I >can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost >instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of >any date, let alone nice ones.
This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.
No argument, this will impact the TOTAL number of shows hard-core collectors attend. 40 years ago, they HAD to go there. Now, it's more optional for many (a trend accelerated by Covid).
I know for myself it's a chance to re-aquaint with old friends...goto a new city or a city I like spending a few days in....see lots of stuff up close...lectures...visit the sites or friends in the area.
Agree and to follow up, you won’t find 3 1834 bust quarters CACed in XF online today, lucky if you can find one and will likely be marketed with lousy pics so you are taking a risk. And that goes for a whole lot of coins folks collect. But at a coin show you are seeing in hand and minimizing the risk. So there are still coin reasons for shows, but there are also alot more things going on than just buying and selling coins including hanging out with friends and all of the other activities. At least for the big ones…………..
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $60,000.
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
I'd love to have had a special assessment of 2K over 5 years. Try a 50K over 5 years on for size and see what that does to blow up a budget.
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $57,000.
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $57,000.
Based on that single example, you conclude that OP is a troll?
That goes both ways, and one could just as easily find a single coin to make the counterargument. I also think its worth noting that:
Price guide jumps to 288,000 in 65+
Coin is a CAC top pop
Old green holder, which as you know is often treated as a +
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $57,000.
Based on that single example, you conclude that OP is a troll?
That goes both ways, and one could just as easily find a single coin to make the counterargument. I also think its worth noting that:
Price guide jumps to 288,000 in 65+
Coin is a CAC top pop
Old green holder, which as you know is often treated as a +
Too many examples of too much strength in the market and the OP never offered specifics.
@golden said:
They were not soft in the lots that I wanted in last night's Heritage auction.
Same here from Tuesday. I was tracking many lots. Even my overbids were outbid. I am a sucker for big beautiful busts, and that night was full of them.
From my stellar both buying & selling experience at the recent FUN show, I feel the market (quality coins anyway) is still alive & well! For how long? I have no idea.
Looking at Jan GJ today & pricing (retail) pickups so far sales been considerably lower vs par but nice CACG and PCGS Pickups on buy side getting many below bid. Buyers market. Overall purch perf abt 12 pct below bid - yay!
Definitely believe market getting soft (big picture pov) based on recent bourse experience and parameters I analyze.
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $57,000.
Based on that single example, you conclude that OP is a troll?
That goes both ways, and one could just as easily find a single coin to make the counterargument. I also think its worth noting that:
Price guide jumps to 288,000 in 65+
Coin is a CAC top pop
Old green holder, which as you know is often treated as a +
Too many examples of too much strength in the market and the OP never offered specifics.
While true, that doesn’t justify accusing someone of being a troll.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
@golden said:
They were not soft in the lots that I wanted in last night's Heritage auction.
Same here from Tuesday. I was tracking many lots. Even my overbids were outbid. I am a sucker for big beautiful busts, and that night was full of them.
You are talking about coins, right?
😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $57,000.
Based on that single example, you conclude that OP is a troll?
That goes both ways, and one could just as easily find a single coin to make the counterargument. I also think its worth noting that:
Price guide jumps to 288,000 in 65+
Coin is a CAC top pop
Old green holder, which as you know is often treated as a +
Too many examples of too much strength in the market and the OP never offered specifics.
While true, that doesn’t justify accusing someone of being a troll.
I agree. I never accused anyone of being a troll before. I lost my cool when someone posted an opinion without any facts or specifics.
Fact ..Market is getting soft. IF I am wrong so be it.... I can have an opinion. Apparently you can splash five figure coins and say look at this !! Go to a coin show and see how many buyers are buying $10-$500... coins,. Look at E Bay and see how many are selling. This is where I live . My opinion its getting soft. Yes I can have one, or before I post must I Kiss Your Ring for approval?
@HiBucky said:
Fact ..Market is getting soft. IF I am wrong so be it.... I can have an opinion. Apparently you can splash five figure coins and say look at this !! Go to a coin show and see how many buyers are buying $10-$500... coins,. Look at E Bay and see how many are selling. This is where I live . My opinion its getting soft. Yes I can have one, or before I post must I Kiss Your Ring for approval?
Yes, that's your OPINION. It is not "fact" as you just stated. And, our opinion, including the DEALERS who you claimed supported your OPINION disagree. You don't need to kiss any rings, or anything else. However, if your are going to offer an OPINION and ask for other opinions, you should be prepared to accept contrary opinions with a little grace and humility.
And, for the record, I do 95% of my business in the $10 to $500 range on eBay.
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
As a fellow finance guy, I always appreciate your insight and viewpoint. It is spot on.
Although I will say, I can financially afford if my collection value goes to zero, it would be a problem for me emotionally. I would be sad because it means the death of my favorite hobby!
@safari_dude said:
Real estate? Another ‘rich man’s game.’ Condos in Florida WERE a great investment…till the Surfside collapse….and >then the governor decided to make everyone follow HIS guidelines and policies which is causing the market to get >killed due to huge assessments. Debt and equity markets? Unless you have big money those are another rich man’s >game. When I buy a coin it doesn’t require a mortgage, insurance, nor taxes to enjoy….. I guess you and I are on two >sides of the spectrum.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
Strongly disagree, my thoughts are more in line with @Relaxn. (Though I agree with pretty much everything else, just that one proclamation).
If you invest in something, it's an investment, period. That doesn't mean it's a good investment, but performance isn't a qualifier of being an investment.
In fact, I think the stigma of "Coins are never investments" is what deters growth in the younger generations, which everyone always scratches their head about. Why do the younger people take an interest in crypto, NFTs, sports cards, or anything these days? I don't see an issue in saying that coins could be an investment, as long as the message is delivered honestly and expectations are realistic. I think common date saints in gem are fantastic way to introduce someone to numismatics. History, Art, and Economics all rolled into one, just a few hundred bucks over melt. While they might not perform like the S&P, I think the downside is minimal and it's a much better store of value than holding cash. Diversification is key, as always. Get people started with something like that, and perhaps they stick around and become real collectors.
@GoldFinger1969 said:\ But even for Trophy Coins...where the buyers are super-rich and probably price doesn't matter....even the annualized returns on 95% or more of them are probably low single-digits. The 1933 Double Eagle and lots of other coins...I've worked out the returns when they change hands...I think 2 coins I can recall that broke the double-digit (>10%) annual return threshold. One of them was the Bass Proof 1850 Double Eagle...he got it for $2,000 in 1970 so he beat the runup in high-end numismatics and the rise in gold and thus, with such a low starting point, when the coin got sold a few years ago it worked out to about 12% a year as I recall.
Have you looked at some of the pioneer issues? I suspect you'll find some more to add to that list.
This thread is one where I quickly scan for the few posters who’s opinions I would value on this topic, and as expected, find this thread to be a bunch of generalizations by people without enough market participation to offer a qualified opinion.
@HiBucky said:
Fact ..Market is getting soft. IF I am wrong so be it.... I can have an opinion. Apparently you can splash five figure coins and say look at this !! Go to a coin show and see how many buyers are buying $10-$500... coins,. Look at E Bay and see how many are selling. This is where I live . My opinion its getting soft. Yes I can have one, or before I post must I Kiss Your Ring for approval?
You should have omitted the below portions of your opening post, as you clearly didn't really want to hear contrary opinions:
".. So what do you guys say be truthful?"
and
"Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?"
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Dear Bucky,
all opinions are allowed just some are not valued. I personally value opinions based on facts. Can you figure out which one might yours be?
Comments
That's where the newcomers armed with Covid $$$ struck.
That was when sports cards, NFTs, and generic currency/coins were flying in 2020-21. Greensheet had a front-page article talking about how the lower-quality Large Denomination $500 and $1,000 bills had soared as newbies flocked there, but not going after the higher-quality bills as they cost too much.
Yup. Your 1916-D dime is always worth silver content.
You beat me to the punch. Not a very comforting thought. I’ll be first in line to buy an 1804 dollar when they’re selling for melt.
Sometimes, it’s better to be LUCKY than good. 🍀 🍺👍
My Full Walker Registry Set (1916-1947):
https://www.ngccoin.com/registry/competitive-sets/16292/
I'll pay double melt... just cuz it's old.
(1) Anything you can LOOK AT -- art, coins, stamps, bills, cars, NFTs, sports cards, etc. -- is NOT an investment. At best, it's a speculation. Mentally write your purchase down to ZERO $$$ and if that is not a problem for you financially or emotionally, then don't worry about whatever it's value is in the future.
(2) Condos and real estate require specialized knowledge if you want to make it an "investment" as opposed to a SPECULATION. Not familiar with the post-Surfside situation but condos have to be safe though the Special Assessments could be a shock to some people. We're looking at one at my condo...it's a problem because we are middle-income or lower....but a special assessment of $2,000 per unit (less than 1% of market value) payable over 5-10 years is still a problem for people. They don't realize it's the cost of having a home (as if a single-family home doesn't require a new driveway, roof, boiler, landscaping, and other repairs).
(3) Stocks and bonds are easily accessible to ANYBODY of ANY income level. Don't know what you are doing ? Use mutual funds or a competent financial planner (CFA preferably, CFP at least). Understand what you own and make sure his idea of risk and your idea of risk are in the same ballpark.
Without dividends or interest, coins and other tangible assets simply do not have the ability to match stocks or even bonds over the long haul. Yes, if you were LUCKY and bought lots of coins before the big runup in gold and silver of the 1970's you did fantastic. Or if you bought at recent PM lows in 1998-2000 or 2016-19. You'd be way ahead of the game.
But even for Trophy Coins...where the buyers are super-rich and probably price doesn't matter....even the annualized returns on 95% or more of them are probably low single-digits. The 1933 Double Eagle and lots of other coins...I've worked out the returns when they change hands...I think 2 coins I can recall that broke the double-digit (>10%) annual return threshold. One of them was the Bass Proof 1850 Double Eagle...he got it for $2,000 in 1970 so he beat the runup in high-end numismatics and the rise in gold and thus, with such a low starting point, when the coin got sold a few years ago it worked out to about 12% a year as I recall.
Jay Pittman made smart buys, caught the numismatic and PM up-cycles, and also made a killing (or his family and estate did
). But he's like the daytrader or options player who makes consistent $$$ -- very very rare.
Even my gold coins, I mentally write them down to nothing. That way, if future generations like GenZ don't care for Double Eagles, neither I nor my inheritors will be disappointed. Maybe 1 ounce of gold will be worth $5,000 or $2,500 and I'll salvage some $$$ that way. Or maybe gold is going back to $500 if AI programs can manufacture it synthetically (I think there was a "Twilight Zone" episode about that
).
Again...unless you are a dealer or someone who spends 6-10 hours a day on this stuff or is someone who is very very lucky...don't consider numismatic or even PM coins to be "investments." Maybe they will be. But tangible assets are highly volatile, have long periods of dead money, and can decline with no income or dividend offset to grab new units at lower prices.
Caveat Emptor !!
That's been my experience for most stuff on HA going back years. At least using their HA Estimated Price (which I figure is close to or above the PCGS Price Guide).
What "HA Estimated Price" are you speaking of? I'm unaware of any such pricing information being included in U.S. coin lot listings - at least for the past several years.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
As a fellow finance guy, I always appreciate your insight and viewpoint. It is spot on.
Although I will say, I can financially afford if my collection value goes to zero, it would be a problem for me emotionally. I would be sad because it means the death of my favorite hobby!
Good thing this is a U.S. Coins Forum so I can read/talk about U.S. Coins. Oh wait, which forum is this?
"Got a flaming heart, can't get my fill"
The idea that coins are not an investment is laughable. It's said because it a line that needs to be toe'd for certain people... but for someone to tell me that buying a 1.8 Million dollar 1894-s Barber dime is because someone was nostalgic about Ice Cream Trucks is a load of poo.
Why can't I get loans vs my collection? Why can I insure it?
Please stop with the coins are not investments.
This is not a indication of are they a good or bad investment... but they are still an investment.
I collect glass... Blown glass from the Appalachian area... I have spent strong money on pieces but these are not a holder of value... these are not investments. These are pretty things that make me happy. Are some pieces rare? Very but I know that the money I spent there is most likely gone. C'est la vie.
Is the market softening? Sort of..
If you have non registry and non PQ(CAC approved) coins there is a good chance your area is soft. If you own top line registry coins or CAC approved premium coins then your market is still going strong.
I have built multiple large collections in my life and the one thing ring true from early 2k to now quality has demand.
I appreciate the finance guys telling us to use better investment vehicles for wealth preservation and wealth building. I get it. Index funds yoy pay 17% or better and few things get you there year over year. But claiming rare coins is kot an investment is disingenuous.
My 2 cents from my corner...
J
Mark, I see estimated prices at the end of the description for currency on all the stuff. I thought I had seen it with coins, too, but maybe I was wrong. But I see it on currency right now with the auction LIVE as I type this:
Lot 21064
Fr. 34 $1 1880 Legal Tender PMG Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ. Exceptionally well margined, beautifully bright and with good original paper surfaces. Fr. 34's and 35's used to be seen with some frequency in top grade, but the active market of recent years has dried up the availability. Finding a piece as nice as this has become a challenge.
Estimate: $2,000 - up
Grade: Gem Uncirculated 65 EPQ
Previous Prices from Heritage
Quality always wins IMHO, and it 'aint cheap.
There might be 2 dozen VAM's known but four worth owning based on eye appeal.
Much like poker takes a level of skill.
... Or making an educated wager on the first five innings based on the starting pitcher while weighing the umpire, weather, and stadium conditions.
This year will be the first in many, that I have the funds and time to pursue a higher level of numismatics, art, and bees (of all things).
My bases are covered, I have been blessed.
I got a list of 100 VAM's, and everything else is a great flip project.
Hopefully the next 20 years will be full of financially balanced mayhem and great joy.
I would not want it any other way.
BST: KindaNewish (3/21/21), WQuarterFreddie (3/30/21), Meltdown (4/6/21), DBSTrader2 (5/5/21) AKA- unclemonkey on Blow Out
Because we were seguing into "coins as an investment" I thought it was relevant. Don't want anybody visiting here to think this is an easy way to make riches. That's all.
I thought we were talking about the rare coin market. 😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Most of the coin listings had the PCGS price guide as well as pop figures shown with each auction.
I thought so....but actually the last few weeks/months I've spent more time watching the Currency Auctions than Coin Auctions and it kind of blurred in my mind as to if I had seen the estimate for both types. Thanks !!
Strongly disagree, my thoughts are more in line with @Relaxn. (Though I agree with pretty much everything else, just that one proclamation).
If you invest in something, it's an investment, period. That doesn't mean it's a good investment, but performance isn't a qualifier of being an investment.
In fact, I think the stigma of "Coins are never investments" is what deters growth in the younger generations, which everyone always scratches their head about. Why do the younger people take an interest in crypto, NFTs, sports cards, or anything these days? I don't see an issue in saying that coins could be an investment, as long as the message is delivered honestly and expectations are realistic. I think common date saints in gem are fantastic way to introduce someone to numismatics. History, Art, and Economics all rolled into one, just a few hundred bucks over melt. While they might not perform like the S&P, I think the downside is minimal and it's a much better store of value than holding cash. Diversification is key, as always. Get people started with something like that, and perhaps they stick around and become real collectors.
Have you looked at some of the pioneer issues? I suspect you'll find some more to add to that list.
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/california-gold/849/ms
https://www.pcgs.com/prices/pricechanges/colorado-gold/1612/ms
Founder- Peak Rarities
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BTW...as for the OP.....I think the sectors that had the Covid $$$ have definitely declined and/or flatlined...but nothing like those other Covid bubbles like NFTs (when was the last time you saw a TV or print article on THOSE ??
).
Gold continues to do very well. We're almost at an ATH again. There's a persistent bid under the metal as supply from mines and CB's is well-contained which means demand is moving the price up. I've long believed in $3,000 by 2030 and $5,000 by 2035. The former is probably way too low and the latter, which was just a coin-flip or less when I made it, is now looking more and more possible/probable.
We'll know in 5 and 10 years....
My profitable hobby investments have taught me patience with my other investments. Hobby investments are not "bought today and sold tomorrow." And timing is everything.
If one considers a hobby investment portfolio as a small part of one's total investment portfolio, it can be an enjoyable and rewarding distraction when other investments are not doing well.
Step 1: Buy quality
Step 2: Repeat
Step 3: Wait for the right buyer to come along
Empty Nest Collection
Matt’s Mattes
Ok, maybe just a one off, but CRO just snagged a US coin at auction for 60% of his max bid. His words...Wow!
I think the market has gotten soft. I’ve taken a small bath on several coins recently that I needed to sell. Not too bad, thankfully, given everything. But more recent purchases are doing poorly on resale. I’ve got a $1 pioneer that I’m hoping sells at least at what I paid for it a couple of years ago. It does feel like buying on a down slope right now so I’ve put purchases on hold except for the one or two things I’m kind of aiming for that are <$50 each anyway.
In looking at my current outlook this morning: Agree the market both shows, online weak. Expense of food, cars, housing been increasing. Plus GTA 6 coming out in March I have heard. Many in coin club in GTA5 online wanting to get PS 5 which is required for GTA6 (if not already upgraded).
Many coming in the bourse room doing good even have $300 to spend. Yes there are rich collectors but they can be very fussy or focused on one area what they are buying. One guy a big currency buyer his visit to my table amounted to more than everything else sold at shows there.
However I have been getting some good buys both coins and currency. Also increasing my PCGS and CACG inventory.
They were not soft in the lots that I wanted in last night's Heritage auction.
Ok. Coins are absolutely horrible investments. Feel better?
Coins are what you make them. I find a good retail, strong margin area and go with it. On the other side of the ball I work my angle buying material right.
.
Agree and to follow up, you won’t find 3 1834 bust quarters CACed in XF online today, lucky if you can find one and will likely be marketed with lousy pics so you are taking a risk. And that goes for a whole lot of coins folks collect. But at a coin show you are seeing in hand and minimizing the risk. So there are still coin reasons for shows, but there are also alot more things going on than just buying and selling coins including hanging out with friends and all of the other activities. At least for the big ones…………..
Best, DH
You must be a troll?
The 1955 DDO cent in PCGS/CAC MS-65 just sold at Heritage for $90,000 including the buyer fee vs a retail PCGS price guide of $60,000.
I'd love to have had a special assessment of 2K over 5 years. Try a 50K over 5 years on for size and see what that does to blow up a budget.
Yeah, but what did the Hummels sell for?
Based on that single example, you conclude that OP is a troll?
That goes both ways, and one could just as easily find a single coin to make the counterargument. I also think its worth noting that:
Edit: case and point-
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/1110661/heritage-us-coins-signature-auction-tonight-1864-s-liberty-half-eagle-pcgs-cac-au58-sold-for-192k#latest
Founder- Peak Rarities
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Too many examples of too much strength in the market and the OP never offered specifics.
Same here from Tuesday. I was tracking many lots. Even my overbids were outbid. I am a sucker for big beautiful busts, and that night was full of them.
So long as CBH are considered rare and DBH languish.
So long shall bust halves be a silly type
Common, hyped and cruel
From my stellar both buying & selling experience at the recent FUN show, I feel the market (quality coins anyway) is still alive & well! For how long? I have no idea.
“The thrill of the hunt never gets old”
PCGS Registry: Screaming Eagles
Copperindian
Retired sets: Soaring Eagles
Copperindian
Nickelodeon
Looking at Jan GJ today & pricing (retail) pickups so far sales been considerably lower vs par but nice CACG and PCGS Pickups on buy side getting many below bid. Buyers market. Overall purch perf abt 12 pct below bid - yay!
Definitely believe market getting soft (big picture pov) based on recent bourse experience and parameters I analyze.
While true, that doesn’t justify accusing someone of being a troll.
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
You are talking about coins, right?
😉
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
I agree. I never accused anyone of being a troll before. I lost my cool when someone posted an opinion without any facts or specifics.
Fact ..Market is getting soft. IF I am wrong so be it.... I can have an opinion. Apparently you can splash five figure coins and say look at this !! Go to a coin show and see how many buyers are buying $10-$500... coins,. Look at E Bay and see how many are selling. This is where I live . My opinion its getting soft. Yes I can have one, or before I post must I Kiss Your Ring for approval?
This WQ sold for 13x guide last night at GC ($1744 vs. $135). There is still money chasing coins, and in this case, rattlers.
https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1026542/1952-Washington-Quarter-PCGS-MS-67-OGH-1st-Gen-CAC-Green-Toned
Nothing is as expensive as free money.
Yes, that's your OPINION. It is not "fact" as you just stated. And, our opinion, including the DEALERS who you claimed supported your OPINION disagree. You don't need to kiss any rings, or anything else. However, if your are going to offer an OPINION and ask for other opinions, you should be prepared to accept contrary opinions with a little grace and humility.
And, for the record, I do 95% of my business in the $10 to $500 range on eBay.
@HiBucky . Sorry you are mad. The truth is there are 20 coin markets. It is hard to make a blanket statement that covers all of them. James
Like what is going on with stamps right now.
I will say zoomers want to make money as quick as possible and I would not be surprised at another 1980s style coin market bubble driven by them.
This thread is one where I quickly scan for the few posters who’s opinions I would value on this topic, and as expected, find this thread to be a bunch of generalizations by people without enough market participation to offer a qualified opinion.
Latin American Collection
You should have omitted the below portions of your opening post, as you clearly didn't really want to hear contrary opinions:
".. So what do you guys say be truthful?"
and
"Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?"
Mark Feld* of Heritage Auctions*Unless otherwise noted, my posts here represent my personal opinions.
Dear Bucky,
all opinions are allowed just some are not valued. I personally value opinions based on facts. Can you figure out which one might yours be?