@GoldFinger1969 said: Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop. So high-end $$$ purchases for luxury collectibles are definitely not what they were in 2021-23.
We may be seeing a bit of that in higher-priced coins and bills and of course, it can filter down a bit more into less-expensive purchases (but not 3- and 4-figure stuff)
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful data point at all.
Recently bought graded star note (auc) around 50 pct MV. So yes market soft but many deals buying. Cert Coins - no prob getting them 10 pct back of bid.
On balance, with my collectible interests and possessions, I don't pay much attention to the ebb and flow of markets. The memories associated with my collectible interests mean more to me than the value.
Successful transactions:Tookybandit. "Everyone is equal, some are more equal than others".
@seatedlib3991 said:
Look up the coin market of 1989-1992. I sold coins for a profit back then but here was the caveat. None of them >were Morgan Dollars and that was where the largest markdowns came. I also sold coins in 2007, which many >consider a high point. I lost money on a number of coins i sold at that time. They were all common date Seated >Halves I had found upgrades for.
Morgan Silver Dollars fell 75-90% before bottoming by 1994. Saints dropped 75-80% over the next decade, as gold eased lower and premiums dissipated.
@privatecoin said:
Some areas are definitely still going up. I've been working on completing a Washington quarter set for 5 years now >and many of the more common MS 66 dates are selling for way more than I paid for them in the past.
@privatecoin said:
Some areas are definitely still going up. I've been working on completing a Washington quarter set for 5 years now >and many of the more common MS 66 dates are selling for way more than I paid for them in the past.
Are they above the price levels of 2010-14 ?
Unsure. My opinion is the prices are not currently going down on many common date and grades in this series. Because we haven't reached previous highs does that mean the market is soft and getting softer?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
@GoldFinger1969 . There was a period of time in the early 1990's when Coin World was full of ads offering (Common Date) PCGS 63 and 64 coins at really low prices. If I remember right 63 coins were selling for $28 to $35 and 64 coins were in the $45 range. I wonder how people who bought those made out. James
Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop.
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does that mean the market is hot?
@jmlanzaf said:
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful >data point at all.
Volume, pricing, or a combination of both....it shows total revenue dropping significantly. It means that alot of demand was probably pulled forward from 2021-23 and shows that aside from the Top 1% of 1%....people are being a bit more cautious.
@2ndCharter said:
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 >billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does >that mean the market is hot?
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
@2ndCharter said:
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 >billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does >that mean the market is hot?
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
You're going to criticize the Heritage point after you tried to use Sotheby's to prove something?
Sears did zero business last year so tools and clothing must not sell anymore.
Seems to me that coins still sell well. What I have noticed on many coins when I do the research for historical prices, is that the prices, say in the late 2000s-2015, is that the prices are the same, or less when comparing auction prices today. Then I think, "ten years, fifteen years, no price movement...that is dead money". Worse, inflation for the last 10-15 years has rapidly increased.
Top pop, PCGS-CAC coins still crush it and you usually see much higher prices. Regular PCGS or NGC coins, not top pop and no CAC have lost money purchased years ago when using inflation adjusted numbers.
The market still hums along, but the value of coins, inflation adjusted makes coins a rather lousy store of value...IMO.
This is my general observation and shouldn't be used as a blanket reality for the whole coin market.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The coin market is like our equities markets - just an illusion of price growth based on massive monetary inflation. Equities are mostly keeping up...collector coins, not so much.
@ARCO. The only modifiers I would apply are common , better date and rare or recently popular.
You can buy a 1858-o PCGS 40 Seated Half for just about the exact same price year in year out.
You will pay at least a 50% mark up on any better date coins in XF or better compare to 2015.
Look at dates such as 1840 sm letters, civil war dates, 1870-s, 1972-s in grades of VF or better.
Look at a coin such as the 1839 No Drapery and get back to me on what you are paying now. James
Lots of folks selling coins that are overpriced for the condition of the coin. Slabbed or not.
I have this coin and you do not and I want 3x or 6x. And it's not a real nice coin, has problems.
They are thinking if other real nice coins are getting it mine should be worth the same. Their looking for the fish so to speak. Ignoring the problems
Plus the real nice coins don't leave collections readily, just the problem ones first.
I pass on way more now than I use to when I was less knowledgable.
Comments
Different market. Could also be explained by volume rather than decreased pricing. In my opinion, not a useful data point at all.
Not Surprised
Recently bought graded star note (auc) around 50 pct MV. So yes market soft but many deals buying. Cert Coins - no prob getting them 10 pct back of bid.
On balance, with my collectible interests and possessions, I don't pay much attention to the ebb and flow of markets. The memories associated with my collectible interests mean more to me than the value.
Morgan Silver Dollars fell 75-90% before bottoming by 1994. Saints dropped 75-80% over the next decade, as gold eased lower and premiums dissipated.
Are they above the price levels of 2010-14 ?
Unsure. My opinion is the prices are not currently going down on many common date and grades in this series. Because we haven't reached previous highs does that mean the market is soft and getting softer?
Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Voltaire. Ebay coinbowlllc
Clearly, either new coins were found and got Top Pop grades...or there were a bunch of coins that benefitted from gradeflation, right ?
I suspect the lower prices also might be that you have fewer collectors of this series among the young and/or new collectors ?
@GoldFinger1969 . There was a period of time in the early 1990's when Coin World was full of ads offering (Common Date) PCGS 63 and 64 coins at really low prices. If I remember right 63 coins were selling for $28 to $35 and 64 coins were in the $45 range. I wonder how people who bought those made out. James
Sotheby's saw a 24% drop in auction/art sales in 2024 which is a pretty big drop.
If you're going to throw out random data points, here's mine - Heritage announced total sales volume of over $1.8 billion for 2024 - a new record for them and over twice their sales volume from four years ago. So, therefore, does that mean the market is hot?
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
Volume, pricing, or a combination of both....it shows total revenue dropping significantly. It means that alot of demand was probably pulled forward from 2021-23 and shows that aside from the Top 1% of 1%....people are being a bit more cautious.
Maybe...but HA has been doing lots of business on comics, sports, and art/film collectibles.
And if you are comparing to 2020 as the starting point for that 4-year comparision, Covid impacted volumes bigtime in 2020. Took until 2021 before things recovered.
NFTs have imploded, and top-pop sports cards have been popped, too. That's a sign of lower enthusiasm at the top end, says nothing (I agree) about the lower end. But there is usually some spillover...question is...how much ?
If you don't recognize a bit of sarcasm, then there is no point continuing this discussion.
Member ANA, SPMC, SCNA, FUN, CONECA
You're going to criticize the Heritage point after you tried to use Sotheby's to prove something?
Sears did zero business last year so tools and clothing must not sell anymore.
Seems to me that coins still sell well. What I have noticed on many coins when I do the research for historical prices, is that the prices, say in the late 2000s-2015, is that the prices are the same, or less when comparing auction prices today. Then I think, "ten years, fifteen years, no price movement...that is dead money". Worse, inflation for the last 10-15 years has rapidly increased.
Top pop, PCGS-CAC coins still crush it and you usually see much higher prices. Regular PCGS or NGC coins, not top pop and no CAC have lost money purchased years ago when using inflation adjusted numbers.
The market still hums along, but the value of coins, inflation adjusted makes coins a rather lousy store of value...IMO.
This is my general observation and shouldn't be used as a blanket reality for the whole coin market.
For me, it really puts a damper on buying coins. Buy a coin, hold it for ten years, sell it at an auction house which takes 20% and then still lose in real terms when factoring inflation rising.
The coin market is like our equities markets - just an illusion of price growth based on massive monetary inflation. Equities are mostly keeping up...collector coins, not so much.
@ARCO. The only modifiers I would apply are common , better date and rare or recently popular.
You can buy a 1858-o PCGS 40 Seated Half for just about the exact same price year in year out.
You will pay at least a 50% mark up on any better date coins in XF or better compare to 2015.
Look at dates such as 1840 sm letters, civil war dates, 1870-s, 1972-s in grades of VF or better.
Look at a coin such as the 1839 No Drapery and get back to me on what you are paying now. James
Lots of folks selling coins that are overpriced for the condition of the coin. Slabbed or not.
I have this coin and you do not and I want 3x or 6x. And it's not a real nice coin, has problems.
They are thinking if other real nice coins are getting it mine should be worth the same. Their looking for the fish so to speak. Ignoring the problems
Plus the real nice coins don't leave collections readily, just the problem ones first.
I pass on way more now than I use to when I was less knowledgable.