Market Conditions Are Soft and Getting Worst

HiBucky

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

fluffy155

I hope so; we've been in an up market for too long and it's time for a soft spot. I'd love to see the 2015-2019 down market again, I've got some nice lots coming up and would like to get them at a reasonable price.

coinkat

There are various sectors within the coin market and all sectors really do not move in the same direction. I see a significant difference in Depression era glassware, Hummers and Coins. In the interest of space, I am not going to elaborate. Perceptions of collectibles and interest in them change for various reasons… some reasons can be explained while the fickle nature of trends cannot.

pcgscacgold

I wish it would get soft but it's not. The prices in MB59 (Sheridan Downey) were extremely high. Gerry Fortin said it was his best show ever (over 10 years). Legend had a great show (according to her market report). All in all, the FUN show sounded like it was well attended and buyers were lining up to buy.

seatedlib3991

I think this is important and valuable information. If you could spread the word before Heritages Tuesday/Wednesday auction i would be profoundly grateful. james

Torey

I sell a decent amount online through different platforms and run multiple ebay accounts. I always see a decline in the months before/after Christmas. Offers usually start picking back up during tax season, especially on bigger ticket coins. Not saying this year could be different though.

I wouldn't mind the opportunity to stock up if it does go that way.

Old_Collector

Lately, I've seen crazy bids on coins that really not that nice looking, like an MS66BN 1929-S PCGS Lincoln yesterday that doesn't look as good as half of the MS65BN I've seen lately, yet it went almost 60% over PCGS list with the BP. Likely, someone needs a point in their registry set because they sure didn't look at the coin and it will never CAC, even as a 65. This seems like a manic topping phase that hits all kinds of markets..

I know that I had a hard time initially, but then it got a lot easier to find MS67 PCGS/CAC well toned Texas 50¢ at more reasonable prices to finish the 13 coin set.

I would love to see a few years of a soft or down market to pick up some things that I want, but alas I think that the real softness will be in the more common stuff and not in the more expensive pieces. Any softness should not hurt real collectors or nimble dealers.

Eldorado9

If the market is soft, I am not seeing it. I can't find any great Trade Dollars, Barber proofs, Seated proof material at all. And if one pops up, either the price is ridiculous, or it gets sold before I can even look it up on Coinfacts. Maybe the market is soft in other areas, like MS-63 Morgans?...But not the stuff I am looking for.

291fifth

The coin market is far to diverse to make any blanket statement but anything common is going to be subject to downward pressure. How is common material doing?

golden

Lately I am the under bidder at a price that is above PCGS price guide.

Project Numismatics

As mentioned above, every single FUN dealer report and post I’ve seen has stated that it was the best coin show in a long time.

@HiBucky - who are you talking to? What segment is soft?

jmlanzaf

Even IF the market were a little soft, extrapolating to the decades of Hummell weakness would be a leap beyond logic.

Cougar1978

Considering bullion has outperformed US Classic coins (Pcgs 3000 index) for quite sometime not surprised. Track in spreadsheet analysis. But on flip side some nice pickups for me below bid / US Classic material. Even CACG. Sales in the industry been slowing for sometime. My last show did well sales wise but decent margin on many of them not there. Many convo with at show reducing offers (sellers off bourse) from 10 pct back of bid to 20 pct back. Yes agree tire kickers out in droves they ask a price you may reduce it some, they walk off. Many of them lack money imo.

MFeld

@HiBucky said:

Market Conditions Are Soft and Getting Worst

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

What does “market” refer to? Most or all coin types and grades or something more specific?

“Soft” compared to when?

“Worst” or “worse”? Even if worse, certainly not “worst”.😉

The dealers you spoke to were likely being “truthful” based on their own experiences and perceptions. But they don’t speak for everyone else.

Colonialcoin

@HiBucky said:

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

What do you consider to be “nice collector coins”?

Tunis

I need the market get a lot “softer” for the coins I am chasing at Heritage and Stack’s, coming up.

mcarney1173

A widening gap between common coins and above average eye appeal, rarities, and popular coins (CC Morgans, bullion, etc.)

renomedphys

Man, I wish. Apparently the high-end copper guys didn’t get the memo

U1chicago

As mentioned by many, there is little evidence that the whole market is softening or that nice collector coins are going down (if we define these as eye appealing examples that are solid for the grade). There has been a decline in some generic items, like common date MS 63-MS 66 Morgans but many type coins with great color and eye appeal have generally not come down.

Walkerguy21D

@renomedphys said:
Man, I wish. Apparently the high-end copper guys didn’t get the memo

Or even the mid-range copper guys!

Dug13

From Stack Bowers web site:
"STACK BOWERS GALLERIES ANNOUNCES RECORD YEAR IN 2024"
They pretty much deal in "nice collector coins"

lermish

I'm sure it's not intended this way but this thread is so disconnected with everyone's observations that it really feels like a troll post.

EDIT: ok, almost everyone, I guess there will never be 100% consensus on anything.

PeakRarities

@lermish said:
I'm sure it's not intended this way but this thread is so disconnected with everyone's (EDIT: ok, almost everyone, I guess there will never be 100% consensus on anything) observations that it really feels like a troll post.

Ehhh I wouldn't quite say that, we had a good show but the collectors who attend shows dont represent the market as a whole in my opinion. Ebay sales have been pretty slow for me and grey/cpg has been moving down on many coins, also generic gold premiums are nonexistent. It's tough to make generalizations, because at the same time there some series (early draped bust gold, early dollars) that are still red hot.

Coin Finder

Hummels and depression glass have not been selling well for many years now except for exceptional pieces..

Lots of generic pre 33 gold in 61,62 63 and 64 grade and raw is selling close to melt because some wholesalers are inundated by it right now. Lots of people selling to cover December bills I suspect. Gold is high compared to a year ago so that rise took some collector value out of it.. Just my opinion...

Goldminers

It is only a tiny segment of the market, but I had a complete set of $2.50 CAC stickered Indians 63+-65+ at GC, and mostly only watchers this past Sunday. Didn't even get a starting bid $5,000 below price guides on a key 63+ CAC 1911D Strong. The batch of $10 MS62-65 Indians I had was the same. I had to relist most again.

oreville

@HiBucky said:

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

Which dealers have stated this? I have not seen this except on a very intermittent basis.

Pnies20

This is not the case. Nice coins selling for strong to absurd prices.

7Jaguars

As per above I guess it depends where you look. The "all star" rarities generally do well (but not always - remember that last 1870 CC $20!). But coins like the generic gold in lower grades are having their numismatic values suffer. Mid-grade semi-keys like in the Seated and Barber series are on and off with occasional bargains to be had.The same is true of my focus of late milled pre-decimal British copper and silver with even the previously smoking Vicky gold overall generally down.
But as has been pointed out, it is very hard to make the generalization stick across the boards.

RobertScotLover

@HiBucky said:

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion. However when I read the above post I do not see a seasoned collector or dealer writing this post. I see a relative newbe who really doesn't know what is going on. First off as a collector who is buying, wouldn't the individual be glad prices are softening? For a dealer I would think the opposite is true. For a collector who is selling same thing. And using "depression glassware & Hummels" as a gauge for comparison, all I can say is WHAAAAAT is he/she talking about?

PeakRarities

@RobertScotLover said:

@HiBucky said:

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

I believe everyone is entitled to their opinion. However when I read the above post I do not see a seasoned collector or dealer writing this post. I see a relative newbe who really doesn't know what is going on. First off as a collector who is buying, wouldn't the individual be glad prices are softening? For a dealer I would think the opposite is true. For a collector who is selling same thing. And using "depression glassware & Hummels" as a gauge for comparison, all I can say is WHAAAAAT is he/she talking about?

In all fairness, I don't know If I would classify OP's mentioning of the depression glassware and Hummels as a "comparison", just examples of markets that softened considerably, and never recovered.

FlyingAl

Ha. I wish.

I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of any date, let alone nice ones.

This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.

TwoSides2aCoin

I sold a 1924 MS 63 Saint Gaudens , along with an MS 64 $10 Gold Indian 1932 for PCGS price guide , out of the shop today

But I also got a call from a seller wanting to dump 138 Pounds of 90% silver coins. My wallet is soft and my checks are almost rubber

WQuarterFreddie

@FlyingAl said:
Ha. I wish.

I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of any date, let alone nice ones.

This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.

Same can be said for W quarters. 😎

lermish

@FlyingAl said:
Ha. I wish.

I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of any date, let alone nice ones.

This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.

I seem to recall some young man showing me a very attractive proof Walker at FUN last year...

FlyingAl

@lermish said:

@FlyingAl said:
Ha. I wish.

I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of any date, let alone nice ones.

This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.

I seem to recall some young man showing me a very attractive proof Walker at FUN last year...

Ah, but that young man can assure you no Walkers anywhere near that quality were anywhere to be found at a dealer's table.

rte592

Let's just say that I've helped other bidders spend their money on coins but haven't won anything for myself.
That doesn't translate to a softening of the market.
I was looking for raffle prizes for a Christmas coin club meeting in November /December, I bid on no less than 250 coins and ended up with 4 that I had to step up the budget on.

Tax return money for those who get it would come into the picture for the next couple months.

BillJones

The dealers seemed to be happy with results for the first day of the FUN Show. Friday backed off a bit for some, but most said they were very busy. If the market is slowing down, it’s not by much.

thebeav

Thanks for the tip on the Hummels.
I just picked up that 'Little Boy Fishing' at a steal !

safari_dude

I think eBay has helped to destroy value in many collectibles. My dad had over 1,000 Hummels before he passed away in 1995. They were worth well over $200K at the time…and now if my mom was lucky, she MIGHT get $10-12,000 for the entire collection. Hummels that were worth $1,000 then now fetch $50-$75 on a GOOD day on eBay. My dad would be heartbroken if he were still alive and saw what his ‘investments’ were worth now. I have seen it with several coins I bought when I was younger that were thought to be valuable. In 1977 when I was 19 I purchased a 1949S ‘BU’ Franklin half from a local brick and mortar store for $300 (I mowed a LOT of lawns and worked at an airport car rental agency for my money). I would be lucky to get $75 for that coin today as it’s just not that spectacular of a coin like it was back then…and FBL’s weren’t even in the equation. Times change, values change, and hopefully we have a few winners along with all our losers….. I see coins in GC, HA, and S &B’s auctions selling for $75K, $250K and some higher with a LOT of bidders who aren’t shy about running prices up. See, the folks with money don’t care how much they spend to get what they want, while others are happy to score a $150 coin for $125. If you want a particular coin it’s like anything else and you will do what is necessary to hopefully make that purchase happen. We all want a good deal, it’s just with all the different grading services, counterfeits, and other factors weighing in, they are getting tougher to find. JMHO of course.

1madman

@WQuarterFreddie said:

@FlyingAl said:
Ha. I wish.

I think collectors need to realize that the age of coin shows is coming to a close. Suppose I want a 1942 Proof half - I can likely find 100-200 examples of various grades online right now. The pick of the litter could be mine almost instantly. I went to FUN last year, and for the life of me can't remember seeing more than five Walkers in Proof of any date, let alone nice ones.

This is true for nearly every coin. Shows can't keep up, and they're more for networking now than anything else.

Same can be said for W quarters. 😎

There were so many W quarters at fun the other day, it was almost nauseating.

jdimmick

I noticed a little softening in the past few months on "just stuff" but better stuff is still strong. Our local show in dec was pretty well attended and dealers for the most part said they did well. Anything that I have been chasing in auctions has gone insane price wise. I just attended FUN myself to submit some coins and consignment drop off, and I have never seen so many people at a coin show(thurs) in my entire life than that,and I have been attending shows since the age of 10.
Some of the dealers I talked with said the show was simply fantastic. one dealer I know from western NC told me he had sold more coins in the first three hours at FUN on thursday than he did the past 6 months.
I think bullion sales are off considerably both locally and nationally (which Is fine with me) as I hate the stuff anyway.

jmlanzaf

@thebeav said:
Thanks for the tip on the Hummels.
I just picked up that 'Little Boy Fishing' at a steal !

Local place was recently selling them for $6 each

BillJones

@safari_dude said:
I think eBay has helped to destroy value in many collectibles. My dad had over 1,000 Hummels before he passed away in 1995. They were worth well over $200K at the time…and now if my mom was lucky, she MIGHT get $10-12,000 for the entire collection. Hummels that were worth $1,000 then now fetch $50-$75 on a GOOD day on eBay. My dad would be heartbroken if he were still alive and saw what his ‘investments’ were worth now. I have seen it with several coins I bought when I was younger that were thought to be valuable. In 1977 when I was 19 I purchased a 1949S ‘BU’ Franklin half from a local brick and mortar store for $300 (I mowed a LOT of lawns and worked at an airport car rental agency for my money). I would be lucky to get $75 for that coin today as it’s just not that spectacular of a coin like it was back then…and FBL’s weren’t even in the equation. Times change, values change, and hopefully we have a few winners along with all our losers….. I see coins in GC, HA, and S &B’s auctions selling for $75K, $250K and some higher with a LOT of bidders who aren’t shy about running prices up. See, the folks with money don’t care how much they spend to get what they want, while others are happy to score a $150 coin for $125. If you want a particular coin it’s like anything else and you will do what is necessary to hopefully make that purchase happen. We all want a good deal, it’s just with all the different grading services, counterfeits, and other factors weighing in, they are getting tougher to find. JMHO of course.

The trouble with coins like Franklin Half Dollars is that they were saved in quantity. There are large numbers of them in Mint State. That gives promoters many opportunities to push them as “investments.” They can’t do that with many earlier coins because they don’t exist in numbers that support a marketing program. If you buy when the promotion is in full string, you will end up losing money. These things go in cycles. There was a similar situation circa 1989. I image that you bought sometime later than that.

BillJones

@golden said:
Lately I am the under bidder at a price that is above PCGS price guide.

Dealers were asking prices well above the PCGS Coin Facts numbers at the FUN show. I was looking for less than exciting items, Indian and large cents.

yspsales

But W quarters are exploding...

Seriously, I like where the scarce VAM's are as a buyer long term.

Project Numismatics

@safari_dude said:
I think eBay has helped to destroy value in many collectibles. My dad had over 1,000 Hummels before he passed away in 1995. They were worth well over $200K at the time…and now if my mom was lucky, she MIGHT get $10-12,000 for the entire collection. Hummels that were worth $1,000 then now fetch $50-$75 on a GOOD day on eBay. My dad would be heartbroken if he were still alive and saw what his ‘investments’ were worth now. I have seen it with several coins I bought when I was younger that were thought to be valuable. In 1977 when I was 19 I purchased a 1949S ‘BU’ Franklin half from a local brick and mortar store for $300 (I mowed a LOT of lawns and worked at an airport car rental agency for my money). I would be lucky to get $75 for that coin today as it’s just not that spectacular of a coin like it was back then…and FBL’s weren’t even in the equation. Times change, values change, and hopefully we have a few winners along with all our losers….. I see coins in GC, HA, and S &B’s auctions selling for $75K, $250K and some higher with a LOT of bidders who aren’t shy about running prices up. See, the folks with money don’t care how much they spend to get what they want, while others are happy to score a $150 coin for $125. If you want a particular coin it’s like anything else and you will do what is necessary to hopefully make that purchase happen. We all want a good deal, it’s just with all the different grading services, counterfeits, and other factors weighing in, they are getting tougher to find. JMHO of course.

All eBay did was help collectors understand just how common certain coins and collectibles are.

Many collectibles have suffered the same fate - beanie babies is another example. I would argue NFTs are the latest “collectible” to skyrocket and then collapse.

I think coins have a lot going - history, precious metals, worldwide appeal (ancients and world), artistry and collector history going back 100s of years.

But I don’t consider coins an investment - collecting is an hobby. I am very careful about how much of my finances I tie up in coins. $200,000 into a collectible including coins would be far too much for my comfort level, though for D.L. Hansen or some board members here would not be a significant sum.

[Deleted User]

@MFeld said:

@HiBucky said:

Market Conditions Are Soft and Getting Worst

I talk to a lot of dealers and the market conditions are getting soft even for nice collector coins. Coin shows are feeling the pain. A lot of tire kickers and not much buying go on,.... So what do you guys say be truthful? Maybe it's the holidays but I worry we are going into the same direction of depression glassware and Hummels. What do you say?

What does “market” refer to? Most or all coin types and grades or something more specific?

“Soft” compared to when?

“Worst” or “worse”? Even if worse, certainly not “worst”.😉

The dealers you spoke to were likely being “truthful” based on their own experiences and perceptions. But they don’t speak for everyone else.

Maybe "worser"

Catbert

Or wurst!

coinkat

Market conditions are soft and getting worse...

Tell that to the Bulgarians...

coinbuf

News to me, I followed many of the early large cents that Heritage auctioned last week and the prices did not seem soft to me.

sellitstore

I don't engage with the coin market enough to offer an opinion but I really enjoy reading the diverse range of responses offered by others. Experience varies considerably from person to person and everyone has different perceptions. The answer to this question is clearly not binary-the market is good or bad. It's much more complicated than that.

I can offer some perspective on obsolete currency which does not extend to all currency. Simply put, lower priced entry material is strong while much of the better stuff isn't. If you want to get into obsoletes, it would now be wise to start with better and the best material now and worry about the common stuff later. Just the opposite of coins. But not all states are the same.