@jwitten said:
The fact that people are paying over mint price currently for open box coins that they know are not privy marked actually does NOT support your theory that people bought all these to play the lottery. They would be essentially paying over ticket price for an already scratched off ticket that’s not a winner. I don’t see how I’m the world that would support your theory.
@jwitten said:
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th. Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
Yes. We are talking a bit past each other right now. Or you missed a nugget in my earlier post.
My theory is that people are paying a premium now because they are sold out at the Mint. They think they will be hard to get. They won't be. But people buying non-privys for more than $104 are not buying a scratched off lottery ticket. They think they are buying, in the words of the great Mike Mezack, a sold out, limited edition Mint product.
The thing is, this is different from EVERY other previous Mint sell out, due to the lottery ticket. I think a TON of non-privys are going to hit the market in the next few weeks. And be returned to the Mint.
People will get excited when they start popping up at 7:30 a.m. when returns start coming in. And then wonder what is going on when they never go Unavailable. If true, that is going to change everything, and people paying up now for non-privys are going to be sorry. TBD.
Just letting you know that a well known online coin dealer just bought my medal for $200 on Ebay. This isn't a individual who is buying the medal because he missed out on the purchase from the Mint. This coin dealer must have people lined up who will purchase the medal for a higher price. My opinion, based on who bought the medal, is that the medal's price will hold up for about 4 weeks from the initial release. This purchase seems like a no-brainer for those who are planning to sell the medal quickly.
@jwitten said:
The fact that people are paying over mint price currently for open box coins that they know are not privy marked actually does NOT support your theory that people bought all these to play the lottery. They would be essentially paying over ticket price for an already scratched off ticket that’s not a winner. I don’t see how I’m the world that would support your theory.
@jwitten said:
You thinking him selling his for a profit almost instantly supports your stance on these? I assume if he couldn’t sell it for a profit that would also support your stance? So basically… whatever happens, you think you’re right?
@HalfDime said:
What? I thought I read this medal was suppose to be a disaster, with prices crashing and thousands of returns? The privy gimmick would backfire on the mint.
You know what they say. Always consider the source and make your own decisions. 😉
I didn't get a privy and I sold mine on BST in less than an hour last night to another member. 😎
Back in 2019 and 2020 I had to listen to many members on here and dealers at shows telling me that the W quarters were a gimmick by the Mint and were worthless. Joke was on them!
They are still in high demand today on Ebay and Facebook Marketplace. 😎
Only time will tell about these medals but for now there is certainly an aftermarket for them.
By the way, the fact that you immediately sold yours when you didn't get a privy totally supports my theory about where prices might go, given that you didn't want 1 at $104, so it's entirely possible there is no demand for 73,206 at anything close to that, or whatever you were able to flip at last night.
Just get back to me in a month or two, when all 1794 are out in the wild. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, and I'll freely admit it. The analogy to the W quarters is the ones with the privy. Not the regular ones.
I sure do. It supports my theory that thousands of these sold, not because people were excited to get their hands on 1 of only 73,206 for $104, but because they wanted to play the lottery.
If true, good for @WQuarterFreddie. He made a few bucks on his gamble. But what he was able to get for it immediately was never the point. The fact that he only bought it for the free shot at the lottery is.
With 73K out there, if @WQuarterFreddie is not alone, lots of them will be coming to market, or returned to the Mint, in the next few weeks. Let's see what happens to the non-privy price if that happens.
And, no, I'm not right no matter what happens. If these become available in OGP for less than $104 in the next month or two, I will have turned out to be right. If not, I will have been wrong.
TBD, but I'm sticking to what I thought initially -- that lots will come back to the Mint, after being searched for winning tickets, and that will kill the secondary market for them. They will then be easily available, just like they were ALL day on the 15th, and right up until noon on the 16th. Then they got cleaned out by people like @WQuarterFreddie looking for score. Those are all going to be going somewhere, and it won't be @WQuarterFreddie's collection, or the collection of any of the buyers.
If there is organic demand for 73K tribute medals depicting the first silver dollar, at $104 a pop, I will be wrong.
If I do turn out to be right, I just hope people come back to acknowledge it with the same enthusiasm they are jumping the gun to give me a hard time with now.
Yes. We are talking a bit past each other right now. Or you missed a nugget in my earlier post.
My theory is that people are paying a premium now because they are sold out at the Mint. They think they will be hard to get. They won't be. But people buying non-privys for more than $104 are not buying a scratched off lottery ticket. They think they are buying, in the words of the great Mike Mezack, a sold out, limited edition Mint product.
The thing is, this is different from EVERY other previous Mint sell out, due to the lottery ticket. I think a TON of non-privys are going to hit the market in the next few weeks. And be returned to the Mint.
People will get excited when they start popping up at 7:30 a.m. when returns start coming in. And then wonder what is going on when they never go Unavailable. If true, that is going to change everything, and people paying up now for non-privys are going to be sorry. TBD.
Just letting you know that a well known online coin dealer just bought my medal for $200 on Ebay. This isn't a individual who is buying the medal because he missed out on the purchase from the Mint. This coin dealer must have people lined up who will purchase the medal for a higher price. My opinion, based on who bought the medal, is that the medal's price will hold up for about 4 weeks from the initial release. This purchase seems like a no-brainer for those who are planning to sell the medal quickly.
Fair enough. But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be. No one is right all the time.
If there is enough meat on the bone for a dealer to pay $200 and still make money, more power to them. Everyone here should be ready to go at 7:30 a.m. every day, ready to scoop up those returns.
I think the bid will disappear. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe your well-known online dealer is. Time will tell. If the dealer is right, there won't be any returns to the Mint to speak of, so people should stop wasting their time looking, no?
But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be
But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
@MsMorrisine said:
there have been past releases with signed coa
someone else will have to fill in the details, but i don't recall anything this wide
I know a lot of coins ship with a COA from the mint, but most of the time they aren't that important and are even discarded if the coin is sent in for grading. In this case, it seems so much value is tied to that COA itself.
There are NOT a lot of coins with HAND SIGNED COA's.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
Sigh...
"You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
Sigh...
"You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.
Smh….
You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising
Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
That's fine. The point is that the opinion is free, so you have nothing to complain about if you listen and things don't work out for you. Thinking for yourself is always the best thing anyway.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
Sigh...
"You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.
Smh….
You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising
Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.
You're the one who doesn't understand. You pay nothing, you have no right to expect anything (literally, getting what you are paying for), and nothing to complain about.
Yet, here you are, complaining about someone, actually, two people now, expressing opinions you aren't paying for.
Also, why did you go back and edit out that bit of nastiness directed towards @jmlanzaf? Not sure why it appears in my quote, after you deleted it, but I'm glad it does. Maybe YOU should be the one controlling their posts, in addition to putting people on Ignore, and joining forces with @WQuarterFreddie to try to dictate what others post! 🤣
My second coin arrived today. No dice there either, but at least undamaged. This one will probably grade out at MS69 though. Up on ebay it goes. The other one goes off to PCGS tomorrow. Hopefully prices won't crash by the time it comes back.
@Dirt94 said:
I’m thinking now that we went 2 days in a row with nothing available, the next availability will be a wave of returns if and when that starts happening.
There will not be returns one poster called for. Why return when can be sold for $150-$200
One or two, sure. But when (if?) people starting trying to dump what they don't want onto the market in quantity, those $150-200 bids will instantly disappear. That's why.
You also called for prices in $70’s. You may feel that by plastering your opinion all over makes yourself an expert, however have been consistently wrong.
I do not value your opinion.
His opinion is free...
So is trash in a parking lot. Do you have a point?
You get what you pay for
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
Sigh...
"You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.
Smh….
You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising
Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.
Exactly as I said. I'm not sure why you think it means the opposite.
You read my books??? Interesting. Are you sure you have the right person?
I'm really not sure why you're attacking me for agreeing with you that his free opinion is worth less or worthless. On the bright side; I now like him better.
Mine came in yesterday (Monday). Wasn't able to see it until I got home from work. I work the night shift.
No privy, as expected and realistic. It's a real nice medal. The design grows on you, like a fungus. In my opinion, I think the privy mark would distract from the overall design. Probably more than likely count me in for the gold.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
There are nearly 500 of these on eBay for sale and yes, a few are still being purchased when listed BIN below $199 by dealer buyers, if they look good and have immediate shipping. I just mailed mine to them.
I have looked at two. One had two tiny hits on the cheek. The other one had a tiny hit on the nose and near the eagle's neck.
These dealer purchases will end within a week or so, and the price on these raw and in 69 will then start dropping rather quickly when people see their medals will not sell.
The massive concern about returns will not happen, because there is still some flip potential. When that ends in a few weeks, it will be after people have had their medals for more than a week, and it will be too late to return them.
Many are going to end up feeling like they were on a snipe hunt and were left holding the bag.
117 more non-privies graded.....24% of total graded MS69. Of note, the First Strikes are getting hammered....60.6% are graded MS69.
No new privies graded.....value should hold for a while it appears.
@Cranium_Basher73 said:
Mine came in yesterday (Monday). Wasn't able to see it until I got home from work. I work the night shift.
No privy, as expected and realistic. It's a real nice medal. The design grows on you, like a fungus. In my opinion, I think the privy mark would distract from the overall design. Probably more than likely count me in for the gold.
For the record, this is EXACTLY what people first said about the privy when they thought all 75K would have them. Will you still be in for the gold when the pricing comes in at $3,700+ and it doesn't sell out, either before or shortly after the HHL is lifted?
Because, at that price, it is highly unlikely the market will absorb 17,500 of them (10x more than the silver privys, albeit with $2700 of precious metal content). They might eventually sell out, but there won't be a frenzy like with the silver lottery. And the Mint is already sucking most or all of the meat off the bone with its high fixed premium to record high gold prices.
117 more non-privies graded.....24% of total graded MS69. Of note, the First Strikes are getting hammered....60.6% are graded MS69.
No new privies graded.....value should hold for a while it appears.
I think the value of the privys is always going to hold, because there are never going to be more than 1794 of them.
It's the non-privys that I think are going to crash, because I think thousands of them would have never been minted at $104, or would be sitting unsold in the Mint's warehouse, but for the lottery.
They are now floating around in the wild, and are going to have to find permanent homes. Meaning the supply/demand curve from Econ 101 is bound to do its thing, as it always, inevitably does. Stay tuned.
@Cranium_Basher73 said:
Mine came in yesterday (Monday). Wasn't able to see it until I got home from work. I work the night shift.
No privy, as expected and realistic. It's a real nice medal. The design grows on you, like a fungus. In my opinion, I think the privy mark would distract from the overall design. Probably more than likely count me in for the gold.
For the record, this is EXACTLY what people first said about the privy when they thought all 75K would have them. Will you still be in for the gold when the pricing comes in at $3,700+ and it doesn't sell out, either before or shortly after the HHL is lifted?
Because, at that price, it is highly unlikely the market will absorb 17,500 of them (10x more than the silver privys, albeit with $2700 of precious metal content). They might eventually sell out, but there won't be a frenzy like with the silver lottery. And the Mint is already sucking most or all of the meat off the bone with its high fixed premium to record high gold prices.
No there will not be a frenzy on the gold, the price point will be too high.
One thing to consider to those who care, there never was a flowing hair gold coin from the Mint.
I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.
It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.
No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?
Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.
If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.
I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:
========================
Question:
I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?
Answer:
To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:
Option 1: Don't open the package
You can sell the coin for $350.
The expected value is simply $350.
Option 2: Open the package
If it's a regular coin, you can sell it for $200.
If it's a limited edition coin, you can sell it for $3500.
The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.
The expected value for opening the package is:
[
EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
]
Yes --the sales report is not what I expected. If they took 41k orders and the medal is essentially "sold out", than means 34k must have gone to dealers. The other alternative is they didn't strike 75k and are assessing what to do next. I doubt that is the case though.
@jerseyralph said:
I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:
========================
Question:
I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?
Answer:
To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:
Option 1: Don't open the package
You can sell the coin for $350.
The expected value is simply $350.
Option 2: Open the package
If it's a regular coin, you can sell it for $200.
If it's a limited edition coin, you can sell it for $3500.
The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.
The expected value for opening the package is:
[
EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
]
The expected value of opening the package is $279.20.
The guaranteed value of not opening the package is $350.
Since $350 > $279.20, you should not open the package to maximize your expected return.
===============
PS - I just sold the sealed medal for $375.00
Where is $350 guaranteed for sealed boxes? That's far above it's calculated value based on odds. 2.4% chance of $4000 is a push at $200 (with the initial purchase price included).
Not positive about the NBPP sales. If there is a tray option, it typically gets its own product code, and you can find it in the sales figures (e.g., 24XL040). THOUGHT that the bulk purchases in the same packaging got combined with the website sales for reporting purposes. But, based on the data presented above, not sure that happened in this case.
Not positive about the NBPP sales. If there is a tray option, it typically gets its own product code, and you can find it in the sales figures (e.g., 24XL040). THOUGHT that the bulk purchases in the same packaging got combined with the website sales for reporting purposes. But, based on the data presented above, not sure that happened in this case.
We will have to wait and see what develops.
Agreed. But, no matter the reason, we know they disappeared at 12:02 p.m. the day after release, and that they are unavailable for purchase on the website.
So, regardless of what they report, we know that as of today, sales are 75K +/- any returns or refused shipments that might be in the pipeline. Not 41K, or anything close to it.
I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.
It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.
No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?
Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.
If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.
Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.
@jerseyralph said:
I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:
========================
Question:
I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?
Answer:
To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:
Option 1: Don't open the package
You can sell the coin for $350.
The expected value is simply $350.
Option 2: Open the package
If it's a regular coin, you can sell it for $200.
If it's a limited edition coin, you can sell it for $3500.
The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.
The expected value for opening the package is:
[
EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
]
The expected value of opening the package is $279.20.
The guaranteed value of not opening the package is $350.
Since $350 > $279.20, you should not open the package to maximize your expected return.
===============
PS - I just sold the sealed medal for $375.00
Where is $350 guaranteed for sealed boxes? That's far above it's calculated value based on odds. 2.4% chance of $4000 is a push at $200 (with the initial purchase price included).
If you look at ebay sales prices, the SEALED and UNOPENED packages are selling for $395.00. Nothing is guaranteed, but I believe $350.00 would be snapped up in a hurry. As I stated, I sold my package for $375.00 this morning.
I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.
It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.
No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?
Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.
If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.
Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.
I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.
More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, until pop reports demonstrated otherwise, and that was later confirmed by TPG representatives.
The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.
Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time to dealers through a separate reporting channel. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.
What do folks think about the current vs. future selling price for the version with the 230 privy (but standard COA)? I'm getting the impression that a lot of people think the prices are higher now than they will be at any point in the future, but the dealers I've called are eager for this coin offering about 3K -- which is what I think one would get on ebay minus fees. That gives me the impression that they think there is the potential for upward mobility.
I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.
It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.
No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?
Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.
If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.
Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.
I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.
More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.
The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.
Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.
The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.
@Numismetal said:
What do folks think about the current vs. future selling price for the version with the 230 privy (but standard COA)? I'm getting the impression that a lot of people think the prices are higher now than they will be at any point in the future, but the dealers I've called are eager for this coin offering about 3K -- which is what I think one would get on ebay minus fees. That gives me the impression that they think there is the potential for upward mobility.
Feel free to ignore my opinion since I have no particular insight on this issue. However, I have seen many past issues that were hot at the time but then trended downward, some precipitously.
If I had a medal that cost me around $100 that I could immediately sell for $3000, I would take that money and run.
This is a medal with a contrived rare version thrown in to generate excitement. There will be more similar offerings in the future, no doubt. If someone wants to own it, I don't think any less of them. But if someone is looking to make money I'd think now is the time.
Finally, I'd much rather sell to a reputable dealer and be done with it. If you sell on ebay you will have to worry about scams and shenanigans, and you'll get a 1099K form come tax time.
i can't explain the published number, but if it is product 24YH sold to dealers, then the dealers' 24YH sales absolutely will show in the numbers.. perhaps they aren't right now - dunno - but eventually the numbers will work out
@Goldminers said:
There are nearly 500 of these on eBay for sale and yes, a few are still being purchased when listed BIN below $199 by dealer buyers, if they look good and have immediate shipping. I just mailed mine to them.
I have looked at two. One had two tiny hits on the cheek. The other one had a tiny hit on the nose and near the eagle's neck.
These dealer purchases will end within a week or so, and the price on these raw and in 69 will then start dropping rather quickly when people see their medals will not sell.
The massive concern about returns will not happen, because there is still some flip potential. When that ends in a few weeks, it will be after people have had their medals for more than a week, and it will be too late to return them.
Many are going to end up feeling like they were on a snipe hunt and were left holding the bag.
Comments
Just letting you know that a well known online coin dealer just bought my medal for $200 on Ebay. This isn't a individual who is buying the medal because he missed out on the purchase from the Mint. This coin dealer must have people lined up who will purchase the medal for a higher price. My opinion, based on who bought the medal, is that the medal's price will hold up for about 4 weeks from the initial release. This purchase seems like a no-brainer for those who are planning to sell the medal quickly.
Fair enough. But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be. No one is right all the time.
If there is enough meat on the bone for a dealer to pay $200 and still make money, more power to them. Everyone here should be ready to go at 7:30 a.m. every day, ready to scoop up those returns.
I think the bid will disappear. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe your well-known online dealer is. Time will tell. If the dealer is right, there won't be any returns to the Mint to speak of, so people should stop wasting their time looking, no?
what was mike teavee's number on them?
https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13809070/#Comment_13809070
wow
dodged a couple of bullets there
Not sure how popular this issue has held up.
If I had known about this promo, I may have left box sealed.
😉
No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.
I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.
There are NOT a lot of coins with HAND SIGNED COA's.
Sigh...
"You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.
Smh….
You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising
Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.
And, this is a coin actually struck by her, if such things matter to anyone. The Flowing Hair thing is nothing more than a signed COA.
That's fine. The point is that the opinion is free, so you have nothing to complain about if you listen and things don't work out for you. Thinking for yourself is always the best thing anyway.
You're the one who doesn't understand. You pay nothing, you have no right to expect anything (literally, getting what you are paying for), and nothing to complain about.
Yet, here you are, complaining about someone, actually, two people now, expressing opinions you aren't paying for.
Also, why did you go back and edit out that bit of nastiness directed towards @jmlanzaf? Not sure why it appears in my quote, after you deleted it, but I'm glad it does. Maybe YOU should be the one controlling their posts, in addition to putting people on Ignore, and joining forces with @WQuarterFreddie to try to dictate what others post! 🤣
And people think I'M difficult 😂
chopmarkedtradedollars.com
My second coin arrived today. No dice there either, but at least undamaged. This one will probably grade out at MS69 though. Up on ebay it goes. The other one goes off to PCGS tomorrow. Hopefully prices won't crash by the time it comes back.
Exactly as I said. I'm not sure why you think it means the opposite.
You read my books??? Interesting. Are you sure you have the right person?
I'm really not sure why you're attacking me for agreeing with you that his free opinion is worth less or worthless. On the bright side; I now like him better.
There's a sliding scale of difficult around here. Lol.
Mine came in yesterday (Monday). Wasn't able to see it until I got home from work. I work the night shift.
No privy, as expected and realistic. It's a real nice medal. The design grows on you, like a fungus. In my opinion, I think the privy mark would distract from the overall design. Probably more than likely count me in for the gold.
Throw a coin enough times, and suppose one day it lands on its edge.
The search is done for this morning. Just flashed to red but not even long enough to add one to the cart.
Was available briefly this morning.
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago, Rob41281
Nothing today. Two days in a row - nothing.
There are nearly 500 of these on eBay for sale and yes, a few are still being purchased when listed BIN below $199 by dealer buyers, if they look good and have immediate shipping. I just mailed mine to them.
I have looked at two. One had two tiny hits on the cheek. The other one had a tiny hit on the nose and near the eagle's neck.
These dealer purchases will end within a week or so, and the price on these raw and in 69 will then start dropping rather quickly when people see their medals will not sell.
The massive concern about returns will not happen, because there is still some flip potential. When that ends in a few weeks, it will be after people have had their medals for more than a week, and it will be too late to return them.
Many are going to end up feeling like they were on a snipe hunt and were left holding the bag.
My US Mint Commemorative Medal Set
Pops as of October 22, 2024
117 more non-privies graded.....24% of total graded MS69.
Of note, the First Strikes are getting hammered....60.6% are graded MS69.
No new privies graded.....value should hold for a while it appears.
For the record, this is EXACTLY what people first said about the privy when they thought all 75K would have them. Will you still be in for the gold when the pricing comes in at $3,700+ and it doesn't sell out, either before or shortly after the HHL is lifted?
Because, at that price, it is highly unlikely the market will absorb 17,500 of them (10x more than the silver privys, albeit with $2700 of precious metal content). They might eventually sell out, but there won't be a frenzy like with the silver lottery. And the Mint is already sucking most or all of the meat off the bone with its high fixed premium to record high gold prices.
I think the value of the privys is always going to hold, because there are never going to be more than 1794 of them.
It's the non-privys that I think are going to crash, because I think thousands of them would have never been minted at $104, or would be sitting unsold in the Mint's warehouse, but for the lottery.
They are now floating around in the wild, and are going to have to find permanent homes. Meaning the supply/demand curve from Econ 101 is bound to do its thing, as it always, inevitably does. Stay tuned.
No there will not be a frenzy on the gold, the price point will be too high.
One thing to consider to those who care, there never was a flowing hair gold coin from the Mint.
I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.
It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.
No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?
Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.
If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.
I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:
========================
Question:
I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?
Answer:
To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:
Option 1: Don't open the package
Option 2: Open the package
The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.
The expected value for opening the package is:
[
EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
]
Let's calculate the expected value:
[
EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500) = 195.2 + 84 = 279.2
]
Conclusion:
Since $350 > $279.20, you should not open the package to maximize your expected return.
===============
PS - I just sold the sealed medal for $375.00
Yes --the sales report is not what I expected. If they took 41k orders and the medal is essentially "sold out", than means 34k must have gone to dealers. The other alternative is they didn't strike 75k and are assessing what to do next. I doubt that is the case though.
So they don't count dealer sales anymore.
2 + 2 = 75,000 😬
Official mint distribution system.
1 for you, 10 for me, 1 for you, 10 for me….
They'll count it somewhere. Just not on that report.
Where is $350 guaranteed for sealed boxes? That's far above it's calculated value based on odds. 2.4% chance of $4000 is a push at $200 (with the initial purchase price included).
The ABPP counts do not seem to appear in the sales figures. For example, the ABPP product code for this item included the suffix "AB", but I cannot locate it.
Reference ("AB" Suffix): https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale
Not positive about the NBPP sales. If there is a tray option, it typically gets its own product code, and you can find it in the sales figures (e.g., 24XL040). THOUGHT that the bulk purchases in the same packaging got combined with the website sales for reporting purposes. But, based on the data presented above, not sure that happened in this case.
We will have to wait and see what develops.
Open both mine, no privy. was keeping them anyways unless I got lucky
Agreed. But, no matter the reason, we know they disappeared at 12:02 p.m. the day after release, and that they are unavailable for purchase on the website.
So, regardless of what they report, we know that as of today, sales are 75K +/- any returns or refused shipments that might be in the pipeline. Not 41K, or anything close to it.
Safe to assume the total is a lot closer to 71k than 41k. Mint returns are allowed within 7 days of receipt. There won't be many coming back.
Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.
If you look at ebay sales prices, the SEALED and UNOPENED packages are selling for $395.00. Nothing is guaranteed, but I believe $350.00 would be snapped up in a hurry. As I stated, I sold my package for $375.00 this morning.
I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.
More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, until pop reports demonstrated otherwise, and that was later confirmed by TPG representatives.
The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.
Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time to dealers through a separate reporting channel. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.
What do folks think about the current vs. future selling price for the version with the 230 privy (but standard COA)? I'm getting the impression that a lot of people think the prices are higher now than they will be at any point in the future, but the dealers I've called are eager for this coin offering about 3K -- which is what I think one would get on ebay minus fees. That gives me the impression that they think there is the potential for upward mobility.
The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.
Feel free to ignore my opinion since I have no particular insight on this issue. However, I have seen many past issues that were hot at the time but then trended downward, some precipitously.
If I had a medal that cost me around $100 that I could immediately sell for $3000, I would take that money and run.
This is a medal with a contrived rare version thrown in to generate excitement. There will be more similar offerings in the future, no doubt. If someone wants to own it, I don't think any less of them. But if someone is looking to make money I'd think now is the time.
Finally, I'd much rather sell to a reputable dealer and be done with it. If you sell on ebay you will have to worry about scams and shenanigans, and you'll get a 1099K form come tax time.
Got mine yesterday. No privy as expected. Received in the bubble envelope undamaged. Looks like a 70 but I'll just hold it maybe for another day.
i can't explain the published number, but if it is product 24YH sold to dealers, then the dealers' 24YH sales absolutely will show in the numbers.. perhaps they aren't right now - dunno - but eventually the numbers will work out
the innocent aluminum foil thread go shut down due to it going off the rails, the "pay for / free" bickering is working towards jumping the tracks
You remind me of someone on here.....🤣😂
So the report is completely worthless and inaccurate.