Home U.S. Coin Forum

U.S. Mint 2024 lottery "230th Anniversary Flowing Hair Silver Medal".

1131416181932

Comments

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2024 6:21PM

    @jerseyralph said:

    Just letting you know that a well known online coin dealer just bought my medal for $200 on Ebay. This isn't a individual who is buying the medal because he missed out on the purchase from the Mint. This coin dealer must have people lined up who will purchase the medal for a higher price. My opinion, based on who bought the medal, is that the medal's price will hold up for about 4 weeks from the initial release. This purchase seems like a no-brainer for those who are planning to sell the medal quickly.

    Fair enough. But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be. No one is right all the time.

    If there is enough meat on the bone for a dealer to pay $200 and still make money, more power to them. Everyone here should be ready to go at 7:30 a.m. every day, ready to scoop up those returns.

    I think the bid will disappear. Maybe I'm wrong, maybe your well-known online dealer is. Time will tell. If the dealer is right, there won't be any returns to the Mint to speak of, so people should stop wasting their time looking, no?

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,032 ✭✭✭✭✭

    But Mike Mezack was on TV over the weekend selling 2024 Morgan and Peace Proof Dollars at a significant loss, given what his studio and airtime costs must be

    what was mike teavee's number on them?

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MsMorrisine said:

    what was mike teavee's number on them?

    https://forums.collectors.com/discussion/comment/13809070/#Comment_13809070

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,032 ✭✭✭✭✭

    wow

    dodged a couple of bullets there

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • LiquidatedLiquidated Posts: 312 ✭✭✭✭

    @jmlanzaf said:

    You get what you pay for

    No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.

    I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Numismetal said:

    I know a lot of coins ship with a COA from the mint, but most of the time they aren't that important and are even discarded if the coin is sent in for grading. In this case, it seems so much value is tied to that COA itself.

    There are NOT a lot of coins with HAND SIGNED COA's.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Liquidated said:

    No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.

    I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.

    Sigh...

    "You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.

  • LiquidatedLiquidated Posts: 312 ✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2024 8:16PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    Sigh...

    "You get what you pay for" means the exact opposite of what you said. No one, especially not me, said that free is better.

    Smh….
    You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising

    Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldbully said:


    Not sure how popular this issue has held up.
    If I had known about this promo, I may have left box sealed.
    😉




    And, this is a coin actually struck by her, if such things matter to anyone. The Flowing Hair thing is nothing more than a signed COA.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2024 8:20PM

    @Liquidated said:

    No, not a good point on your part. Free is not always better and in this case could get in the way of others. Free “opinions” could be costly for anyone that listened.

    I don’t see the comments anymore and look forward to the release of the gold issue while following it free of any potential short sighted opinions.

    That's fine. The point is that the opinion is free, so you have nothing to complain about if you listen and things don't work out for you. Thinking for yourself is always the best thing anyway.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 21, 2024 8:32PM

    @Liquidated said:

    Smh….
    You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising

    Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.

    You're the one who doesn't understand. You pay nothing, you have no right to expect anything (literally, getting what you are paying for), and nothing to complain about.

    Yet, here you are, complaining about someone, actually, two people now, expressing opinions you aren't paying for.

    Also, why did you go back and edit out that bit of nastiness directed towards @jmlanzaf? Not sure why it appears in my quote, after you deleted it, but I'm glad it does. Maybe YOU should be the one controlling their posts, in addition to putting people on Ignore, and joining forces with @WQuarterFreddie to try to dictate what others post! 🤣

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 12:47AM

    @Liquidated said:

    Smh….
    You said his opinion is free and followed up by saying you get what you pay for. You should look into the expression before quoting and then trying to correct others. Good luck with it. Considering how bad your books are this was not surprising

    Essentially you had no point from the beginning and had nothing to contribute.

    Exactly as I said. I'm not sure why you think it means the opposite.

    You read my books??? Interesting. Are you sure you have the right person?

    I'm really not sure why you're attacking me for agreeing with you that his free opinion is worth less or worthless. On the bright side; I now like him better.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @lermish said:
    And people think I'M difficult 😂

    There's a sliding scale of difficult around here. Lol.

  • Dirt94Dirt94 Posts: 247 ✭✭✭

    The search is done for this morning. Just flashed to red but not even long enough to add one to the cart.

  • jshaulisjshaulis Posts: 860 ✭✭✭✭

    Was available briefly this morning.

    Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago, Rob41281

  • coinercoiner Posts: 699 ✭✭✭✭

    Nothing today. Two days in a row - nothing.

  • GoldminersGoldminers Posts: 4,260 ✭✭✭✭✭

    There are nearly 500 of these on eBay for sale and yes, a few are still being purchased when listed BIN below $199 by dealer buyers, if they look good and have immediate shipping. I just mailed mine to them.

    I have looked at two. One had two tiny hits on the cheek. The other one had a tiny hit on the nose and near the eagle's neck.

    These dealer purchases will end within a week or so, and the price on these raw and in 69 will then start dropping rather quickly when people see their medals will not sell.

    The massive concern about returns will not happen, because there is still some flip potential. When that ends in a few weeks, it will be after people have had their medals for more than a week, and it will be too late to return them.

    Many are going to end up feeling like they were on a snipe hunt and were left holding the bag.

  • GoldbullyGoldbully Posts: 17,633 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Pops as of October 22, 2024


    117 more non-privies graded.....24% of total graded MS69.
    Of note, the First Strikes are getting hammered....60.6% are graded MS69.
    No new privies graded.....value should hold for a while it appears.


  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 7:25AM

    @Cranium_Basher73 said:
    Mine came in yesterday (Monday). Wasn't able to see it until I got home from work. I work the night shift.
    No privy, as expected and realistic. It's a real nice medal. The design grows on you, like a fungus. In my opinion, I think the privy mark would distract from the overall design. Probably more than likely count me in for the gold.

    For the record, this is EXACTLY what people first said about the privy when they thought all 75K would have them. Will you still be in for the gold when the pricing comes in at $3,700+ and it doesn't sell out, either before or shortly after the HHL is lifted?

    Because, at that price, it is highly unlikely the market will absorb 17,500 of them (10x more than the silver privys, albeit with $2700 of precious metal content). They might eventually sell out, but there won't be a frenzy like with the silver lottery. And the Mint is already sucking most or all of the meat off the bone with its high fixed premium to record high gold prices.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 7:37AM

    @Goldbully said:
    Pops as of October 22, 2024


    117 more non-privies graded.....24% of total graded MS69.
    Of note, the First Strikes are getting hammered....60.6% are graded MS69.
    No new privies graded.....value should hold for a while it appears.


    I think the value of the privys is always going to hold, because there are never going to be more than 1794 of them.

    It's the non-privys that I think are going to crash, because I think thousands of them would have never been minted at $104, or would be sitting unsold in the Mint's warehouse, but for the lottery.

    They are now floating around in the wild, and are going to have to find permanent homes. Meaning the supply/demand curve from Econ 101 is bound to do its thing, as it always, inevitably does. Stay tuned.

  • fathomfathom Posts: 1,796 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    For the record, this is EXACTLY what people first said about the privy when they thought all 75K would have them. Will you still be in for the gold when the pricing comes in at $3,700+ and it doesn't sell out, either before or shortly after the HHL is lifted?

    Because, at that price, it is highly unlikely the market will absorb 17,500 of them (10x more than the silver privys, albeit with $2700 of precious metal content). They might eventually sell out, but there won't be a frenzy like with the silver lottery. And the Mint is already sucking most or all of the meat off the bone with its high fixed premium to record high gold prices.

    No there will not be a frenzy on the gold, the price point will be too high.

    One thing to consider to those who care, there never was a flowing hair gold coin from the Mint.

  • BullsitterBullsitter Posts: 5,808 ✭✭✭✭✭

  • jerseyralphjerseyralph Posts: 125 ✭✭✭

    @Bullsitter said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    Only time will tell whether platinum is king.
  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 9:09AM

    @jerseyralph said:

    I am a little surprised by this lower than expected number of sales through Sunday. I would have expected a 65,000 plus number.

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

  • jerseyralphjerseyralph Posts: 125 ✭✭✭

    I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:

    ========================

    Question:

    I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?

    Answer:

    To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:

    Option 1: Don't open the package

    • You can sell the coin for $350.
    • The expected value is simply $350.

    Option 2: Open the package

    • If it's a regular coin, you can sell it for $200.
    • If it's a limited edition coin, you can sell it for $3500.

    The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.

    The expected value for opening the package is:
    [
    EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
    ]

    Let's calculate the expected value:

    [
    EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500) = 195.2 + 84 = 279.2
    ]

    Conclusion:

    • The expected value of opening the package is $279.20.
    • The guaranteed value of not opening the package is $350.

    Since $350 > $279.20, you should not open the package to maximize your expected return.

    ===============

    PS - I just sold the sealed medal for $375.00

    Only time will tell whether platinum is king.
  • HalfDimeHalfDime Posts: 237 ✭✭✭

    Yes --the sales report is not what I expected. If they took 41k orders and the medal is essentially "sold out", than means 34k must have gone to dealers. The other alternative is they didn't strike 75k and are assessing what to do next. I doubt that is the case though.

  • OLCOLC Posts: 404 ✭✭✭

    So they don't count dealer sales anymore.

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OLC said:
    So they don't count dealer sales anymore.

    They'll count it somewhere. Just not on that report.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,229 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 11:26AM

    @jerseyralph said:
    I was undecided whether to open my second medal delivery or sell it sealed. My son in law asked ChatGPT. This is based on my conservative assumptions:

    ========================

    Question:

    I bought a coin for $109. If I open the package for it, I can only sell it for $200. If I don’t open the package, I can sell it for $350z. However, if I open the package, I can see if the coin is limited edition coin worth $3500. There is a 2.4 percent chance that it could be a limited edition coin. What should I do?

    Answer:

    To decide whether to open the package or not, let’s compare the expected values (EV) for both options:

    Option 1: Don't open the package

    • You can sell the coin for $350.
    • The expected value is simply $350.

    Option 2: Open the package

    • If it's a regular coin, you can sell it for $200.
    • If it's a limited edition coin, you can sell it for $3500.

    The probability that it's a limited edition coin is 2.4%, or 0.024, and the probability that it's not is 97.6%, or 0.976.

    The expected value for opening the package is:
    [
    EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500)
    ]

    Let's calculate the expected value:

    [
    EV = (0.976 \times 200) + (0.024 \times 3500) = 195.2 + 84 = 279.2
    ]

    Conclusion:

    • The expected value of opening the package is $279.20.
    • The guaranteed value of not opening the package is $350.

    Since $350 > $279.20, you should not open the package to maximize your expected return.

    ===============

    PS - I just sold the sealed medal for $375.00

    Where is $350 guaranteed for sealed boxes? That's far above it's calculated value based on odds. 2.4% chance of $4000 is a push at $200 (with the initial purchase price included).

  • MetroDMetroD Posts: 2,267 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @OLC said:
    So they don't count dealer sales anymore.

    The ABPP counts do not seem to appear in the sales figures. For example, the ABPP product code for this item included the suffix "AB", but I cannot locate it.
    Reference ("AB" Suffix): https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale

    Not positive about the NBPP sales. If there is a tray option, it typically gets its own product code, and you can find it in the sales figures (e.g., 24XL040). THOUGHT that the bulk purchases in the same packaging got combined with the website sales for reporting purposes. But, based on the data presented above, not sure that happened in this case.

    We will have to wait and see what develops. :)

  • EggerEgger Posts: 422 ✭✭

    Open both mine, no privy. was keeping them anyways unless I got lucky

  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @MetroD said:

    The ABPP counts do not seem to appear in the sales figures. For example, the ABPP product code for this item included the suffix "AB", but I cannot locate it.
    Reference ("AB" Suffix): https://www.usmint.gov/news/press-releases/united-states-mint-230th-anniversary-flowing-hair-silver-medal-now-on-sale

    Not positive about the NBPP sales. If there is a tray option, it typically gets its own product code, and you can find it in the sales figures (e.g., 24XL040). THOUGHT that the bulk purchases in the same packaging got combined with the website sales for reporting purposes. But, based on the data presented above, not sure that happened in this case.

    We will have to wait and see what develops. :)

    Agreed. But, no matter the reason, we know they disappeared at 12:02 p.m. the day after release, and that they are unavailable for purchase on the website.

    So, regardless of what they report, we know that as of today, sales are 75K +/- any returns or refused shipments that might be in the pipeline. Not 41K, or anything close to it.

  • VanHalenVanHalen Posts: 4,229 ✭✭✭✭✭

    Safe to assume the total is a lot closer to 71k than 41k. Mint returns are allowed within 7 days of receipt. There won't be many coming back.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 12:45PM

    @NJCoin said:

    It's sold out. My money is on the other 34K being bulk sales that are not reflected in that number. The 41K is likely only what they sold retail through the website last week.

    No one really thinks there are another 34K that are going to be magically appearing at 7:30 a.m. some morning, do they?

    Even if they didn't have all 75K ready to go, they would have accepted orders on a back order basis.

    If I am right, 34K in bulk sales is a disgrace, insofar as it would mean around half of the privys, and apparently the vast majority of signed COAs, went directly into dealer hands. It also means there is a huge overhang on the market.

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

  • jerseyralphjerseyralph Posts: 125 ✭✭✭

    @VanHalen said:

    Where is $350 guaranteed for sealed boxes? That's far above it's calculated value based on odds. 2.4% chance of $4000 is a push at $200 (with the initial purchase price included).

    If you look at ebay sales prices, the SEALED and UNOPENED packages are selling for $395.00. Nothing is guaranteed, but I believe $350.00 would be snapped up in a hurry. As I stated, I sold my package for $375.00 this morning.

    Only time will tell whether platinum is king.
  • NJCoinNJCoin Posts: 2,641 ✭✭✭✭✭
    edited October 22, 2024 2:31PM

    @jmlanzaf said:

    Don't worry. You're not. They limit the advance sale to 10 or 20% of the total. The advance sales should be in there as long as they weren't packaged differently.

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, until pop reports demonstrated otherwise, and that was later confirmed by TPG representatives.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time to dealers through a separate reporting channel. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

  • What do folks think about the current vs. future selling price for the version with the 230 privy (but standard COA)? I'm getting the impression that a lot of people think the prices are higher now than they will be at any point in the future, but the dealers I've called are eager for this coin offering about 3K -- which is what I think one would get on ebay minus fees. That gives me the impression that they think there is the potential for upward mobility.

  • jmlanzafjmlanzaf Posts: 35,366 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    I'm calling BS. The ABPP is 10%. I wasn't aware of any limit at all on bulk sales, although it's reasonable to assume that there would be one for an issue like this. I was shocked that they allowed advance sales at all on this, although it explains why they weren't worried about returns.

    More importantly, it explains a giveaway to dealers, since they received guaranteed allocations of privys while we fought over what was left. You can cite to any published BS you want, but, just like minimum grades of 70 at TPGs weren't a thing, because published instructions said they weren't, pop reports demonstrated otherwise.

    The same applies here to a 20% limit on advance sales. We all saw, with our own eyes, these go Unavailable within 2 minutes of noon on 10/15. Never went to back order.

    Whatever is made available disappears in less than 30 seconds every morning at 7:30 a.m. No way 34K are unaccounted for, or unsold. If they did not find their way to that published sales report, they were sold ahead of time. 34/75 = 45%. Not 10%. Not 20%.

    The ABPP are the only people allowed advance bulk sales to my knowledge. Other bulk buyers don't have access until the HHL is lifted.

  • GiveMeProofGiveMeProof Posts: 626 ✭✭✭✭

    Got mine yesterday. No privy as expected. Received in the bubble envelope undamaged. Looks like a 70 but I'll just hold it maybe for another day.

  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,032 ✭✭✭✭✭

    i can't explain the published number, but if it is product 24YH sold to dealers, then the dealers' 24YH sales absolutely will show in the numbers.. perhaps they aren't right now - dunno - but eventually the numbers will work out

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • MsMorrisineMsMorrisine Posts: 34,032 ✭✭✭✭✭

    the innocent aluminum foil thread go shut down due to it going off the rails, the "pay for / free" bickering is working towards jumping the tracks

    Current maintainer of Stone's Master List of Favorite Websites // My BST transactions
  • WQuarterFreddieWQuarterFreddie Posts: 2,931 ✭✭✭✭✭

    @Goldminers said:
    There are nearly 500 of these on eBay for sale and yes, a few are still being purchased when listed BIN below $199 by dealer buyers, if they look good and have immediate shipping. I just mailed mine to them.

    I have looked at two. One had two tiny hits on the cheek. The other one had a tiny hit on the nose and near the eagle's neck.

    These dealer purchases will end within a week or so, and the price on these raw and in 69 will then start dropping rather quickly when people see their medals will not sell.

    The massive concern about returns will not happen, because there is still some flip potential. When that ends in a few weeks, it will be after people have had their medals for more than a week, and it will be too late to return them.

    Many are going to end up feeling like they were on a snipe hunt and were left holding the bag.

    You remind me of someone on here.....🤣😂

  • OLCOLC Posts: 404 ✭✭✭

    @NJCoin said:

    They'll count it somewhere. Just not on that report.

    So the report is completely worthless and inaccurate.

Leave a Comment

BoldItalicStrikethroughOrdered listUnordered list
Align leftAlign centerAlign rightToggle HTML viewToggle full pageToggle lights
Drop image/file
You can use Markdown in your post.