Prices for medals with signed COAs seems very rich at this point. Ive seen some sellers on ebay dropping their prices.
However, the pricing for raw non-signed Privys has been strong at 4000-4500 selling prices and rising over the last few days.
Ok so the first thing I noticed when receiving my medal was the fact that the person putting my medal in the shipping envelope could easily have opened my box and check for a privy coin. As soon as I saw that the medal box inside the shipping envelope was not sealed in any way, I knew I didn't get a pricy coin.
@Dirt94 said:
I’ve waited all week to open my box of five tonight when my dad came over so we could open them together tonight. Absolutely shocked when I found this guy! I won’t be selling as I’m a collector and love the design of this coin! Good luck to whoever else has sealed ones and is planning on opening!
Congrats @Dirt94 - many props for the win and the collector aspect.
Tim
Thanks! I know several people’s reactions are just to flip it if they get one. But I collect and love the design so it will be staying in the collection! Happy to have a privy and a regular one!
@dtkk49a said:
Ok so the first thing I noticed when receiving my medal was the fact that the person putting my medal in the shipping envelope could easily have opened my box and check for a privy coin. As soon as I saw that the medal box inside the shipping envelope was not sealed in any way, I knew I didn't get a pricy coin.
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but as far as I know the decorative box the coins and/or medals come in have never been sealed as long as I have ordered from the Mint. To say that you knew you weren’t getting one because it wasn’t sealed because the packers could have peaked means nobody should have gotten one because they are all without seal. I also believe it would be highly illegal for the packagers to be “peaking” and stripping all of the privies.
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
I think this is possible. I also think this would be very interesting. It might also encourage people to demand that there be a visible counter on the order page. The data is available if they wanted to use it.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
I think this is possible. I also think this would be very interesting. It might also encourage people to demand that there be a visible counter on the order page. The data is available if they wanted to use it.
If this is possible which could very well be, what is your thoughts on if all of the privies were in the first batch or a proportionate amount will be released in the next batch of minting? Just curious on your thoughts.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
I think this is possible. I also think this would be very interesting. It might also encourage people to demand that there be a visible counter on the order page. The data is available if they wanted to use it.
If this is possible which could very well be, what is your thoughts on if all of the privies were in the first batch or a proportionate amount will be released in the next batch of minting? Just curious on your thoughts.
Thats an interesting question. It's quite possible that all the Privy's went out already. However, if the USM did produce a short run of these medals and plans on striking more (up to the designated limit of 75,000, whatever portion is left)--they would have to at least give the perception that there are still Privy's to be had.....
@NJCoin said:
...After all, it's just a piece of paper. Unlike what they did with the Peace Dollars last year, they are NOT tied to specific strikes of specific medals. And, like some celebrities and wannabe celebrities, she signs pretty much anything anyone puts in her hands at coin shows. As a result, US Mint COAs with her signature on them are going to be the exact opposite of rare in the future....
Has she appeared in public since the medal shipped and been confronted with a request to sign a "standard" FHM COA? I don't know anything about her, but surely this person is sophisticated enough to realize that doing so would at least slightly undermine the exclusivity of the most rare component of the FHM release?
Of course not, it's only been a week! But, I have met her at shows, and she is a very sweet woman. I am quite certain she will be at either Winter Whitman or Winter FUN, signing away.
I would be SHOCKED if, as a government employee heading an agency, she would appear at a coin show, signing things for collectors, and would cynically refuse to sign certain things in order to maintain the value of her signature on other things, like some retired sports celebrity at a paid appearance. After all, she is a public servant serving the public.
Not about sophistication, or lack thereof. Those signed, number COAs were distributed to "randomly" to lucky winners at no additional charge. No representation regarding premium value, now or in the future, was expressed or implied. As a result, the Director of the Mint owes the proud owners no duty, now or in the future, to maintain or enhance their value by telling other Mint customers to eff off if or when they ask her in the future to sign similar items. Period.
If she gets fired if the Administration changes, that's one thing. If just stops attending coin shows, and as a result stops signing altogether, that's another. But, no, I don't see her having an interest in enhancing the value of something the Mint distributed for free by refusing to sign other things for collectors, even if those signed other things detract from the value of the first thing.
@NJCoin said:
...After all, it's just a piece of paper. Unlike what they did with the Peace Dollars last year, they are NOT tied to specific strikes of specific medals. And, like some celebrities and wannabe celebrities, she signs pretty much anything anyone puts in her hands at coin shows. As a result, US Mint COAs with her signature on them are going to be the exact opposite of rare in the future....
Has she appeared in public since the medal shipped and been confronted with a request to sign a "standard" FHM COA? I don't know anything about her, but surely this person is sophisticated enough to realize that doing so would at least slightly undermine the exclusivity of the most rare component of the FHM release?
And what do you think the signed COA by itself would be worth? $100. The privy is driving the price not the COA.
I agree that should be the case, but it apparently isn't right now, with privys accompanied by signed numbered COAs going for thousands more than the privys alone.
@dtkk49a said:
Ok so the first thing I noticed when receiving my medal was the fact that the person putting my medal in the shipping envelope could easily have opened my box and check for a privy coin. As soon as I saw that the medal box inside the shipping envelope was not sealed in any way, I knew I didn't get a pricy coin.
EXCEPT, none of them are sealed, and some DO receive a privy medal. How do you explain that, and why do you suppose some rando packing mailers in a distribution center would select you to discriminate against?
Particularly when your odds of receiving a medal without a privy were exactly 97.6% assuming everything was on the up and up? For all intents and purposes, you should have "known" you didn't get a "pricey coin" when you didn't pay for a pricey coin. 😀
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
I didn’t hit the lottery but this pocket piece is sparking interest.
Edit to add photo
My wife thinks the eagle looks “evil”
My brother got a privy and signed certificate #203 of 230. Lucky him.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
We will see on Tuesday. The sales report will tell the story.
To contradict your comment about taking orders in excess of inventory - i.e. backorders. Sorry, but, you are not correct. In 2008 this happened with "W" burnished Platinum; where a short production run was executed and went to a "currently unavailable" status. If time were left in that Production year the USM could have produced more....however, they did not.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
We will see on Tuesday. The sales report will tell the story.
To contradict your comment about taking orders in excess of inventory - i.e. backorders. Sorry, but, you are not correct. In 2008 this happened with "W" burnished Platinum; where a short production run was executed and went to a "currently unavailable" status. If time were left in that Production year the USM could have produced more....however, they did not.
"If time..." Big "if" that has absolutely no relevance here.
I don't care what the next sales report says, because I don't know why the 34K are missing from the last sales report, or when that issue might be resolved. Until you see quantity available for sale on the website, I'm right and there is no "second group becoming available."
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
It does smell like something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I believe all 75k were struck some time ago. Let's not get started on gov't stats, let's just say in November we'll know more.
Many of us remember the initial 5oz ATB release in 2010. It was blatantly unfair, favoring the mint's distributors. A gift to them if you will. History might be repeating itself.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
It does smell like something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I believe all 75k were struck some time ago. Let's not get started on gov't stats, let's just say in November we'll know more.
Many of us remember the initial 5oz ATB release in 2010. It was blatantly unfair, favoring the mint's distributors. A gift to them if you will. History might be repeating itself.
The real gift was when PCGS allowed dealers to have first strikes, even though it was well beyond 30 days. That’s when I learned PCGS was in it for the big boys.
@NJCoin said:
...Of course not, it's only been a week! But, I have met her at shows, and she is a very sweet woman. I am quite certain she will be at either Winter Whitman or Winter FUN, signing away...
One thing we should take into account is that there is a banner that now appears on the mint website that says a new and improved website is coming on 10/30. (you have to click into a specific product page to see this banner). Maybe we'll know more about the product status of the Flowing Hair medal then and/or more details on the gold version when that transition happens?
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
It does smell like something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I believe all 75k were struck some time ago. Let's not get started on gov't stats, let's just say in November we'll know more.
Many of us remember the initial 5oz ATB release in 2010. It was blatantly unfair, favoring the mint's distributors. A gift to them if you will. History might be repeating itself.
The real gift was when PCGS allowed dealers to have first strikes, even though it was well beyond 30 days. That’s when I learned PCGS was in it for the big boys.
EVERYONE is in it for the Big Boys. After all, they are the ones who keep the lights on. The rest of us are merely an afterthought. It's probably always worthwhile to keep that in mind.
@TwoSides2aCoin said:
I didn’t hit the lottery but this pocket piece is sparking interest.
Edit to add photo
My wife thinks the eagle looks “evil”
My brother got a privy and signed certificate #203 of 230. Lucky him.
The first AU grade will be interesting. These have enormous potential as high dollar toners even w/o a privy mark.
The person with all the answers to this riddle is Michael White at the US Mint. With all of the questions I am surprised that the coin sites have not contacted him on the total sales.
Thanks @MetroD ......those are some big bucks for an ounce of silver and a signed COA.
Don’t see anywhere where it says the COA is signed. The # is there to mislead people as you believed.
There is no such #695 or # 833 out of only 230. 🤔🤔🤔
The number is not there to mislead anyone. They use stock numbers on a lot of their listings.
Not saying it was intentional or commenting on the integrity of the seller, but lack of information in this case was misleading as a long time forum member believed it was a numbered and someone else may not have known better. Description should have said somewhere that it was not a singed COA. The devil is always in the details or lack thereof.
" If you push something hard enough, it will fall over. " The 1st Law of Opposition from The Firesign Theater
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
We will see on Tuesday. The sales report will tell the story.
To contradict your comment about taking orders in excess of inventory - i.e. backorders. Sorry, but, you are not correct. In 2008 this happened with "W" burnished Platinum; where a short production run was executed and went to a "currently unavailable" status. If time were left in that Production year the USM could have produced more....however, they did not.
"If time..." Big "if" that has absolutely no relevance here.
I don't care what the next sales report says, because I don't know why the 34K are missing from the last sales report, or when that issue might be resolved. Until you see quantity available for sale on the website, I'm right and there is no "second group becoming available."
I do care what it says. If it doesnt show at least 60,000 in sales recorded - that will tell me that they did not produce 75,000 (as there is no way they sold 34,000 coins to Bulk + ABPP). The SOLD OUT indicator also has not appeared. No one has reported any backorders that we know of. It all smells of a shorter initial production run.
Most big dealers are already paying 1.75x issue to acquire quantities. If they had a share of 34,000 coins they would NOT be in the open market buying quantities at 1.75x issue.
The question will be - is there enough time in the production schedule to produce more? I would suspect there is.
My initial amounts have been sold to dealers. I will wait for a second offering (if it comes) and i will be in to buy more as long as there is a secondary mkt demand.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
We will see on Tuesday. The sales report will tell the story.
To contradict your comment about taking orders in excess of inventory - i.e. backorders. Sorry, but, you are not correct. In 2008 this happened with "W" burnished Platinum; where a short production run was executed and went to a "currently unavailable" status. If time were left in that Production year the USM could have produced more....however, they did not.
"If time..." Big "if" that has absolutely no relevance here.
I don't care what the next sales report says, because I don't know why the 34K are missing from the last sales report, or when that issue might be resolved. Until you see quantity available for sale on the website, I'm right and there is no "second group becoming available."
I do care what it says. If it doesnt show at least 60,000 in sales recorded - that will tell me that they did not produce 75,000 (as there is no way they sold 34,000 coins to Bulk + ABPP). The SOLD OUT indicator also has not appeared. No one has reported any backorders that we know of. It all smells of a shorter initial production run.
Most big dealers are already paying 1.75x issue to acquire quantities. If they had a share of 34,000 coins they would NOT be in the open market buying quantities at 1.75x issue.
The question will be - is there enough time in the production schedule to produce more? I would suspect there is.
My initial amounts have been sold to dealers. I will wait for a second offering (if it comes) and i will be in to buy more as long as there is a secondary mkt demand.
Okay, then I guess there is nothing that will convince you. At least not in the short run. In the long run the missing 34K WILL show up in a sales report.
In the meantime, if you choose to believe that they went to all the trouble to create a lottery to sell 75K units at 3x intrinsic value, and then neglected to produce or sell nearly 1/2 of the maximum authorized mintage, I have nothing to say to you.
I happen to think they absolutely DID sell 34K to ABPP and bulk buyers, given how quickly they went Unavailable once the HHL was lifted. I think we agree that no way they sold 67.5K one at a time in the first 24 hours (75K less the 10% we know the ABPP buyers got).
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
That leaves 34K being sold to dealers, and, for whatever reason, that fact not yet making its way to their published sales report. As to why dealers are paying what they are paying now to obtain more inventory in the secondary market, that is a mystery to me as well, because I don't see medals without privys going up from here.
Either I am wrong, or whoever is buying is not an infallible genius. The only possible explanation is not that the final mintage is going to be ~41K. And, you can bet that if there was a potential overhang of 34K that could hit the market, no one with any sense of that would be paying any premium at all until that resolved one way or the other. Yet another reason it's not even a possibility.
75k have been sold and probably more. The Mint has been processing returns for over a week. Those are popping up for sale here and there in small quantities. Mintage and sales figures might not be "correct" until early November.
P.S. My guess is at least 15k went through "other channels" that likely have gold dust sprinkled on top.
So they announce the 1,794 privys will be struck, period. They are committed.
Then they only Mint a portion more than half to wait on orders? Now potential buyers know the remaining will not have privys? No..... that does not pass the smell test. An enduring sales and marketing disaster. Its something else to do with reporting or sales commitments.
@HalfDime said:
The person with all the answers to this riddle is Michael White at the US Mint. With all of the questions I am surprised that the coin sites have not contacted him on the total sales.
Can't speak for the "coin sites", or numis-media, but I contacted Mr. White's office, and inquired. The person that I interacted with could not answer in real-time, but promised a response. 'If/when' I hear back, I will post the info here.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
I think this is possible. I also think this would be very interesting. It might also encourage people to demand that there be a visible counter on the order page. The data is available if they wanted to use it.
If this is possible which could very well be, what is your thoughts on if all of the privies were in the first batch or a proportionate amount will be released in the next batch of minting? Just curious on your thoughts.
I think they would have all been released because, if it is true, there isn't a scheduled minting of the rest. If they had such an event scheduled, they would be on backorder rather than unavailable.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
I'm very familiar with the 2017 EU sets. I sold hundreds of them. My point was that, contrary to your assertion, backorder is not automatic for sets that are not sold out. It happened with the EU sets i mentioned as well as the platinum coins mentioned by another. I have no idea what the exact situation is here, but you made an INCORRECT affirmative assertion about Mint behavior and i simply pointed out the ERROR. And you assertion remains demonstrably incorrect. They only go to backorder if there are existing minting plans.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
I'm very familiar with the 2017 EU sets. I sold hundreds of them. My point was that, contrary to your assertion, backorder is not automatic for sets that are not sold out. It happened with the EU sets i mentioned as well as the platinum coins mentioned by another. I have no idea what the exact situation is here, but you made an INCORRECT affirmative assertion about Mint behavior and i simply pointed out the ERROR. And you assertion remains demonstrably incorrect. They only go to backorder if there are existing minting plans.
Okay then. If you are very familiar with the sets, having sold hundreds of them, maybe you should have refrained from making a very misleading comparison of them to this.
Because Back Order is indeed automatic in cases like this, if in fact the Mint intentionally made a short run to gauge demand. With the 2017 EU sets, they actually made and sold all 225K, so why did you go there with them to try to make your point? Because you didn't realize that I could learn the truth in 10 seconds with a Google search?
Talking about niche products where they don't make the full mintage, and then never go back to make more before pulling them from the catalog has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL to do with a product like this. Or Morgan and Peace Dollars. Or ASEs. Etc.
You know as well as I that popular items that go out of stock go to Back Order. Because, of course they plan to make more if the demand is there. They don't just make an arbitrary number, well short of the maximum, and then stop sales for no reason at all.
And you know now that did not happen here. You are just looking for some theoretical justification for your earlier posts indicating that you thought it was possible that 34K were held back. Now that you see there are no plans to make more, even you realize they didn't just decide to make and sell half of the maximum.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
@coiner said:
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
I'm very familiar with the 2017 EU sets. I sold hundreds of them. My point was that, contrary to your assertion, backorder is not automatic for sets that are not sold out. It happened with the EU sets i mentioned as well as the platinum coins mentioned by another. I have no idea what the exact situation is here, but you made an INCORRECT affirmative assertion about Mint behavior and i simply pointed out the ERROR. And you assertion remains demonstrably incorrect. They only go to backorder if there are existing minting plans.
Okay then. If you are very familiar with the sets, having sold hundreds of them, maybe you should have refrained from making a very misleading comparison of them to this.
Because Back Order is indeed automatic in cases like this, if in fact the Mint intentionally made a short run to gauge demand. With the 2017 EU sets, they actually made and sold all 225K, so why did you go there with them to try to make your point? Because you didn't realize that I could learn the truth in 10 seconds with a Google search?
Talking about niche products where they don't make the full mintage, and then never go back to make more before pulling them from the catalog has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL to do with a product like this. Or Morgan and Peace Dollars. Or ASEs. Etc.
You know as well as I that popular items that go out of stock go to Back Order. Because, of course they plan to make more if the demand is there. They don't just make an arbitrary number, well short of the maximum, and then stop sales for no reason at all.
And you know now that did not happen here. You are just looking for some theoretical justification for your earlier posts indicating that you thought it was possible that 34K were held back. Now that you see there are no plans to make more, even you realize they didn't just decide to make and sell half of the maximum.
There is nothing misleading about the 2017 sets. They got 40,000 returns and cancellations starting on the 2nd day of release. Eventually, that number got up to 60 or 70k. They sold some of those and the 10% overpriduction but many of those returns were destroyed. They were going to Mint replacements "if the schedule allowed" but then the year ran out. There is NO difference between that and having a short initial run.
This also happened with Eagles coins during Covid when they had trouble getting blanks. They never went to backorder because they was uncertainty as to whether additional supply would be manufactured.
The very simple point which you want to complicate is that backorder is not automatic when they haven't sold the entire mintage. Period. 2017 EU sets. Platinum coins. Silver eagles. Take your pick. So the lack of a backorder option here is conclusive of nothing.
It's also possible that they did sell the full mintage but we're waiting on a database update. Even then, however, you keep incorrectly referring to "bulk buyers" as a 3rd group of buyers. They do NOT get an allotment, unlike ABPP, and so their purchases aren't in a 3rd category. They buy out of the same inventory as regular buyers once the HHL is lifted. The only group, unless they did something differently here, that had a separate allotment is the ABPP buyers who do get a separate allotment and they are limited to about10% of the mintage which would be be 7500 coins not 34,000.
I don't need justification of anything. Unlike you, I have never made any definitive proclamation about these. I only keep pointing out that we can't know because there are other options. You want to keep denying other options in the same way that you keep insisting that your numerous incorrect prognostications about the popularity and value of these will someday be correct. You just keep going and going.
It's okay to just say, as i have, that we simply don't know.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
Given that it is a medal, not a coin, they could mint them in 2025 or 2035.
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
@NJCoin said
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
The very simple point which you want to complicate is that backorder is not automatic when they haven't sold the entire mintage. Period. 2017 EU sets. Platinum coins. Silver eagles. Take your pick. So the lack of a backorder option here is conclusive of nothing.
It's also possible that they did sell the full mintage but we're waiting on a database update. Even then, however, you keep incorrectly referring to "bulk buyers" as a 3rd group of buyers. They do NOT get an allotment, unlike ABPP, and so their purchases aren't in a 3rd category. They buy out of the same inventory as regular buyers once the HHL is lifted. The only group, unless they did something differently here, that had a separate allotment is the ABPP buyers who do get a separate allotment and they are limited to 10% of the mintage which would be be 7500 coins not 34,000.
Very true. I am in agreement the only reserved inventory is for ABPP for 7,500 coins or 10%.
This means 67,500 was available for Bulk and normal customer purchases.
The last sales report shows 40,999 sold. None went backorder.
26,501 coins not accounted for.
If, in fact, some shorter production run was completed (say 50,000) maybe there is some reserved inventory to be made available alongside the GOLD at the Baltimore show.
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
@jmlanzaf thank you for the link to the Coin World article.
I copied and pasted this quick summary from the article for those that don't want to read the whole article:
**Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
There’s no official word yet on whether the remaining one-third of the originally announced 75,000 mintage will be available.**
This article should end the ongoing debate between a few members on this thread but unfortunately I doubt it will serve that purpose!🤣😂
@HalfDime said:
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
@jmlanzaf thank you for the link to the Coin World article.
I copied and pasted this quick summary from the article for those that don't want to read the whole article:
**Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
There’s no official word yet on whether the remaining one-third of the originally announced 75,000 mintage will be available.**
This article should end the ongoing debate between a few members on this thread but unfortunately I doubt it will serve that purpose!🤣😂
I have NO DOUBT that it will not serve that purpose. There is a mysterious, super secret sales channel now in play.
@jmlanzaf said:
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
Thanks for that, it appears as you say they struck only 50k of the medals, and not 75k. They may have not ordered enough blanks, or decided 75k was too many medals since the Presidential medals are barely selling anymore.
Yes they can do more medals next year but with these medals dated 2024 it would be better if they dated them 2025 and left the mintage at 50k. They can also make this a yearly release until 2034 using other designs along the way (the 1804 coin would be the last of the series).
@jmlanzaf said:
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
Thanks for that, it appears as you say they struck only 50k of the medals, and not 75k. They may have not ordered enough blanks, or decided 75k was too many medals since the Presidential medals are barely selling anymore.
Yes they can do more medals next year but with these medals dated 2024 it would be better if they dated them 2025 and left the mintage at 50k. They can also make this a yearly release until 2034 using other designs along the way (the 1804 coin would be the last of the series).
The 2024 date refers to the anniversary date. I would not expect them to change that. The US Mint medals still carry the 1789 date, after all.
Comments
Prices for medals with signed COAs seems very rich at this point. Ive seen some sellers on ebay dropping their prices.
However, the pricing for raw non-signed Privys has been strong at 4000-4500 selling prices and rising over the last few days.
Ok so the first thing I noticed when receiving my medal was the fact that the person putting my medal in the shipping envelope could easily have opened my box and check for a privy coin. As soon as I saw that the medal box inside the shipping envelope was not sealed in any way, I knew I didn't get a pricy coin.
They call me "Pack the Ripper"
Available this morning but I couldn’t get in cart.
Thanks! I know several people’s reactions are just to flip it if they get one. But I collect and love the design so it will be staying in the collection! Happy to have a privy and a regular one!
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong but as far as I know the decorative box the coins and/or medals come in have never been sealed as long as I have ordered from the Mint. To say that you knew you weren’t getting one because it wasn’t sealed because the packers could have peaked means nobody should have gotten one because they are all without seal. I also believe it would be highly illegal for the packagers to be “peaking” and stripping all of the privies.
Waiting for the next sales report. I have a hard time believing that all 75,000 medals were sold without sales report verification of at least 60,000 sold. Im being conservative that 10% to ABPP and another 10% to Bulk Buyer----however, I think the availability to dealers was only 10% and not 20%.
There could have been a short production run of ~50,000 or so; and we could possibly get a second group becoming available.
I think this is possible. I also think this would be very interesting. It might also encourage people to demand that there be a visible counter on the order page. The data is available if they wanted to use it.
If this is possible which could very well be, what is your thoughts on if all of the privies were in the first batch or a proportionate amount will be released in the next batch of minting? Just curious on your thoughts.
Thats an interesting question. It's quite possible that all the Privy's went out already. However, if the USM did produce a short run of these medals and plans on striking more (up to the designated limit of 75,000, whatever portion is left)--they would have to at least give the perception that there are still Privy's to be had.....
Of course not, it's only been a week! But, I have met her at shows, and she is a very sweet woman. I am quite certain she will be at either Winter Whitman or Winter FUN, signing away.
I would be SHOCKED if, as a government employee heading an agency, she would appear at a coin show, signing things for collectors, and would cynically refuse to sign certain things in order to maintain the value of her signature on other things, like some retired sports celebrity at a paid appearance. After all, she is a public servant serving the public.
Not about sophistication, or lack thereof. Those signed, number COAs were distributed to "randomly" to lucky winners at no additional charge. No representation regarding premium value, now or in the future, was expressed or implied. As a result, the Director of the Mint owes the proud owners no duty, now or in the future, to maintain or enhance their value by telling other Mint customers to eff off if or when they ask her in the future to sign similar items. Period.
If she gets fired if the Administration changes, that's one thing. If just stops attending coin shows, and as a result stops signing altogether, that's another. But, no, I don't see her having an interest in enhancing the value of something the Mint distributed for free by refusing to sign other things for collectors, even if those signed other things detract from the value of the first thing.
I agree that should be the case, but it apparently isn't right now, with privys accompanied by signed numbered COAs going for thousands more than the privys alone.
EXCEPT, none of them are sealed, and some DO receive a privy medal. How do you explain that, and why do you suppose some rando packing mailers in a distribution center would select you to discriminate against?
Particularly when your odds of receiving a medal without a privy were exactly 97.6% assuming everything was on the up and up? For all intents and purposes, you should have "known" you didn't get a "pricey coin" when you didn't pay for a pricey coin. 😀
Keep holding your breath. Linus also can't believe the Great Pumpkin hasn't yet appeared after all these years. Maybe you want to join him next Thursday night in the Pumpkin Patch, with your laptop and a strong wifi signal, waiting for the Great Pumpkin to bring those missing 34,000 medals to all the good boys and girls. 🤣
If not, just wait for an updated sales report to reflect the 34,000 that are already gone, gone, gone. Just PLEASE stop this short production run nonsense. It's not a thing.
Yes, the Mint does not always make the maximum mintage up front, when they do not expect a sellout. For example, I am quite sure they do not have 500K Harriett Tubman Proof Half Dollars sitting in a warehouse waiting for you to buy them.
But they NEVER stop taking orders just because they run out of stock, until the maximum mintage is sold. That is EXACTLY what Back Orders are for. Did not happen here because they knew, with the privys, that these would sell out. And they did. Period. They're gone, less whatever pops up for a few seconds each morning.
I didn’t hit the lottery but this pocket piece is sparking interest.
Edit to add photo
My wife thinks the eagle looks “evil”
My brother got a privy and signed certificate #203 of 230. Lucky him.
We will see on Tuesday. The sales report will tell the story.
To contradict your comment about taking orders in excess of inventory - i.e. backorders. Sorry, but, you are not correct. In 2008 this happened with "W" burnished Platinum; where a short production run was executed and went to a "currently unavailable" status. If time were left in that Production year the USM could have produced more....however, they did not.
"If time..." Big "if" that has absolutely no relevance here.
I don't care what the next sales report says, because I don't know why the 34K are missing from the last sales report, or when that issue might be resolved. Until you see quantity available for sale on the website, I'm right and there is no "second group becoming available."
It does smell like something is rotten in the state of Denmark. I believe all 75k were struck some time ago. Let's not get started on gov't stats, let's just say in November we'll know more.
Many of us remember the initial 5oz ATB release in 2010. It was blatantly unfair, favoring the mint's distributors. A gift to them if you will. History might be repeating itself.
The real gift was when PCGS allowed dealers to have first strikes, even though it was well beyond 30 days. That’s when I learned PCGS was in it for the big boys.
Hah, fair point. Thanks 🍻
One thing we should take into account is that there is a banner that now appears on the mint website that says a new and improved website is coming on 10/30. (you have to click into a specific product page to see this banner). Maybe we'll know more about the product status of the Flowing Hair medal then and/or more details on the gold version when that transition happens?
EVERYONE is in it for the Big Boys. After all, they are the ones who keep the lights on. The rest of us are merely an afterthought. It's probably always worthwhile to keep that in mind.
The first AU grade will be interesting. These have enormous potential as high dollar toners even w/o a privy mark.
The person with all the answers to this riddle is Michael White at the US Mint. With all of the questions I am surprised that the coin sites have not contacted him on the total sales.
Not saying it was intentional or commenting on the integrity of the seller, but lack of information in this case was misleading as a long time forum member believed it was a numbered and someone else may not have known better. Description should have said somewhere that it was not a singed COA. The devil is always in the details or lack thereof.
I do care what it says. If it doesnt show at least 60,000 in sales recorded - that will tell me that they did not produce 75,000 (as there is no way they sold 34,000 coins to Bulk + ABPP). The SOLD OUT indicator also has not appeared. No one has reported any backorders that we know of. It all smells of a shorter initial production run.
Most big dealers are already paying 1.75x issue to acquire quantities. If they had a share of 34,000 coins they would NOT be in the open market buying quantities at 1.75x issue.
The question will be - is there enough time in the production schedule to produce more? I would suspect there is.
My initial amounts have been sold to dealers. I will wait for a second offering (if it comes) and i will be in to buy more as long as there is a secondary mkt demand.
Okay, then I guess there is nothing that will convince you. At least not in the short run. In the long run the missing 34K WILL show up in a sales report.
In the meantime, if you choose to believe that they went to all the trouble to create a lottery to sell 75K units at 3x intrinsic value, and then neglected to produce or sell nearly 1/2 of the maximum authorized mintage, I have nothing to say to you.
I happen to think they absolutely DID sell 34K to ABPP and bulk buyers, given how quickly they went Unavailable once the HHL was lifted. I think we agree that no way they sold 67.5K one at a time in the first 24 hours (75K less the 10% we know the ABPP buyers got).
And no way they would have disappeared in less than 2 minutes on the web had they not already been spoken for via another sales channel. And CERTAINLY no way they are sitting somewhere, unproduced and unspoken for, as you apparently think might be the case.
That leaves 34K being sold to dealers, and, for whatever reason, that fact not yet making its way to their published sales report. As to why dealers are paying what they are paying now to obtain more inventory in the secondary market, that is a mystery to me as well, because I don't see medals without privys going up from here.
Either I am wrong, or whoever is buying is not an infallible genius. The only possible explanation is not that the final mintage is going to be ~41K. And, you can bet that if there was a potential overhang of 34K that could hit the market, no one with any sense of that would be paying any premium at all until that resolved one way or the other. Yet another reason it's not even a possibility.
75k have been sold and probably more. The Mint has been processing returns for over a week. Those are popping up for sale here and there in small quantities. Mintage and sales figures might not be "correct" until early November.
P.S. My guess is at least 15k went through "other channels" that likely have gold dust sprinkled on top.
So they announce the 1,794 privys will be struck, period. They are committed.
Then they only Mint a portion more than half to wait on orders? Now potential buyers know the remaining will not have privys? No..... that does not pass the smell test. An enduring sales and marketing disaster. Its something else to do with reporting or sales commitments.
Can't speak for the "coin sites", or numis-media, but I contacted Mr. White's office, and inquired. The person that I interacted with could not answer in real-time, but promised a response. 'If/when' I hear back, I will post the info here.
Here's the "official" mintage release schedule. https://usmint.gov/about/production-sales-figures
I think they would have all been released because, if it is true, there isn't a scheduled minting of the rest. If they had such an event scheduled, they would be on backorder rather than unavailable.
It's simply not true. 2017 EU sets were unavailable for months. They never minted the remainder and went straight to Sold Out about 10,000 short of the maximum mintage. For optional issues like commemoratives, they only Mint them if they have TIME as well as demand. They do not always go to backorder, especially later in the year as there are coin items that have to be done before the calendar turns.
Below is line number 491 in the mint's 10/20/24 Numismatic Products report.
**Precious Metal Products 24YH 2024 FLOWING HAIR SILVER MEDAL 1 OZ 40,999 10/20/2024
**
Tuesday at 5:00 pm ET it will be updated. With other releases it has taken two or three weeks before data availability caught up with the reports.
Please forgive me, because I don't remember this. But, are you REALLY comparing something with a 225K maximum mintage, that did not instantly sell out, where the Mint ultimately bailed after ONLY making 215K of them, with this?
By the way, if you are trying to say that, it's not true. A little Googling reveals that they DID sell 225K, and that later returns brought the final number down to whatever number you are referring to by the time the Mint finally pulled them from the catalog. Nice try though.
https://www.numismaticnews.net/archive/bottom-hit-enhanced-set-sales
The mint is warming up the presses for the 2025 coins. They also have to have the packaging made. This is not the time to do another 30k.
I'm very familiar with the 2017 EU sets. I sold hundreds of them. My point was that, contrary to your assertion, backorder is not automatic for sets that are not sold out. It happened with the EU sets i mentioned as well as the platinum coins mentioned by another. I have no idea what the exact situation is here, but you made an INCORRECT affirmative assertion about Mint behavior and i simply pointed out the ERROR. And you assertion remains demonstrably incorrect. They only go to backorder if there are existing minting plans.
Okay then. If you are very familiar with the sets, having sold hundreds of them, maybe you should have refrained from making a very misleading comparison of them to this.
Because Back Order is indeed automatic in cases like this, if in fact the Mint intentionally made a short run to gauge demand. With the 2017 EU sets, they actually made and sold all 225K, so why did you go there with them to try to make your point? Because you didn't realize that I could learn the truth in 10 seconds with a Google search?
Talking about niche products where they don't make the full mintage, and then never go back to make more before pulling them from the catalog has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING AT ALL to do with a product like this. Or Morgan and Peace Dollars. Or ASEs. Etc.
You know as well as I that popular items that go out of stock go to Back Order. Because, of course they plan to make more if the demand is there. They don't just make an arbitrary number, well short of the maximum, and then stop sales for no reason at all.
And you know now that did not happen here. You are just looking for some theoretical justification for your earlier posts indicating that you thought it was possible that 34K were held back. Now that you see there are no plans to make more, even you realize they didn't just decide to make and sell half of the maximum.
For the umpteenth time, there is no missing 30K. They have already been made. And sold. Believe it or not.
There is nothing misleading about the 2017 sets. They got 40,000 returns and cancellations starting on the 2nd day of release. Eventually, that number got up to 60 or 70k. They sold some of those and the 10% overpriduction but many of those returns were destroyed. They were going to Mint replacements "if the schedule allowed" but then the year ran out. There is NO difference between that and having a short initial run.
This also happened with Eagles coins during Covid when they had trouble getting blanks. They never went to backorder because they was uncertainty as to whether additional supply would be manufactured.
The very simple point which you want to complicate is that backorder is not automatic when they haven't sold the entire mintage. Period. 2017 EU sets. Platinum coins. Silver eagles. Take your pick. So the lack of a backorder option here is conclusive of nothing.
It's also possible that they did sell the full mintage but we're waiting on a database update. Even then, however, you keep incorrectly referring to "bulk buyers" as a 3rd group of buyers. They do NOT get an allotment, unlike ABPP, and so their purchases aren't in a 3rd category. They buy out of the same inventory as regular buyers once the HHL is lifted. The only group, unless they did something differently here, that had a separate allotment is the ABPP buyers who do get a separate allotment and they are limited to about10% of the mintage which would be be 7500 coins not 34,000.
I don't need justification of anything. Unlike you, I have never made any definitive proclamation about these. I only keep pointing out that we can't know because there are other options. You want to keep denying other options in the same way that you keep insisting that your numerous incorrect prognostications about the popularity and value of these will someday be correct. You just keep going and going.
It's okay to just say, as i have, that we simply don't know.
.
Given that it is a medal, not a coin, they could mint them in 2025 or 2035.
The remaining quantity didnt disappear. They were never produced.
You don't know that.
https://www.coinnews.net/2024/10/23/us-mint-sales-flowing-hair-silver-medal-reaches-two-thirds-of-mintage/
The sales figure, INCLUDING ABPP Is just under 50,000 units. So where are the other 25,000??? They must be in the Mint's souvenir shops. Given how close the numbers are to 50,000, it seems possible that they only minted 50,000 medals in the initial run. [Or not. Time will tell. ]
https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/flowing-hair-anniversary-medal-opening-sales-brisk
1st day sales were under 32,000
Flipped for a half a second and gone again.
Successful transactions with forum members commoncents05, dmarks, Coinscratch, Bullsitter, DCW, TwoSides2aCoin, Namvet69 (facilitated for 3rd party), Tetromibi, ProfLizMay, MASSU2, MWallace, Bruce7789, Twobitcollector, 78saen, U1chicago, Rob41281
@coiner It is possible. See my links above. A total of 50,000 were sold on the website and to ABPP. Nice round number.
@NJCoin What other sales channel? The only other sales channel is the Mint stores.
New Jersey called, they want you to change your name.
Very true. I am in agreement the only reserved inventory is for ABPP for 7,500 coins or 10%.
This means 67,500 was available for Bulk and normal customer purchases.
The last sales report shows 40,999 sold. None went backorder.
26,501 coins not accounted for.
If, in fact, some shorter production run was completed (say 50,000) maybe there is some reserved inventory to be made available alongside the GOLD at the Baltimore show.
@jmlanzaf thank you for the link to the Coin World article.
I copied and pasted this quick summary from the article for those that don't want to read the whole article:
**Figures place the medal, which celebrates the anniversary of the first dollar coin issued by the U.S. federal government, at a combined total of 49,925 — about two-thirds of the announced 75,000 mintage. Breaking it down, 40,999 were sold individually, while 8,926 went through the Mint’s Authorized Bulk Purchase Program (ABPP).
There’s no official word yet on whether the remaining one-third of the originally announced 75,000 mintage will be available.**
This article should end the ongoing debate between a few members on this thread but unfortunately I doubt it will serve that purpose!🤣😂
I have NO DOUBT that it will not serve that purpose. There is a mysterious, super secret sales channel now in play.
Thanks for that, it appears as you say they struck only 50k of the medals, and not 75k. They may have not ordered enough blanks, or decided 75k was too many medals since the Presidential medals are barely selling anymore.
Yes they can do more medals next year but with these medals dated 2024 it would be better if they dated them 2025 and left the mintage at 50k. They can also make this a yearly release until 2034 using other designs along the way (the 1804 coin would be the last of the series).
The 2024 date refers to the anniversary date. I would not expect them to change that. The US Mint medals still carry the 1789 date, after all.